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He may get more targets with Cooks gone. He is such a different WR than Cooks though so I have a little tougher time just penciling him in for targets that had gone to Cooks. Also, did the presence and speed of Cooks help Thomas? Could Thomas struggle to be a focal point of the passing game? I don't have answers to these questions so I tend to be conservative and use the decade long history of the Brees/Peyton offense to help me find a reasonable projection.
Pedantry aside, I am just trying to illustrate that projecting a CEILING of his rookie production is silly. 1200 yards is not his ceiling.
He had 1100 and 9 last year. 1200 and 12 would be a sizeable jump. For standard, that is from 164 to 192: an increase in scoring by 17%.
He had knee issues early in his career right? Could be that those knee issues sapped some of his 4.5 speed early.
He was drafted in 2006. Here's an article from 2010 that mentioned arthroscopic surgery and a history of knee issues...
He had a 16 game pace of 1213 yards and 9.6 TDs. For standard, going to 1200/12 would be going from 178.9 to 192, an increase in scoring of 7.3%.
*shrug*
That is very fair IMO. I probably didn't account for the 1 missed game as well as I should have. Also, when I say 1200, I mean in the 1200s- so I should clarify that.
My comments about anything can happen were in response to people complaining my ceiling projection was too low. I was conceding that ofcourse anything is possible but I want to have a logical and statistically reasonable ceiling. I did not want to just say, "he will do better than last year, best passing offense in the NFL, more targets without Cooks so sky is the limit."
I probably didn't account for his 1 missed game so your projection is fair. Also, when I say 1200, I mean in the 1200s.
My comments here were in response to posters questioning why my ceiling was low. I am trying to have a reasonable, statistically sound projection and not just into the obvious narrative hype of more targets without Cooks, 2nd year improvement, high powered offense. For me anything beyond the 1200 and 12 is getting into the highly improbable range.
If you are willing to push the ceiling like that, aren't we almost also forced to concede his floor is a lot lower than anyone wants to say.
That's on tOSU's spread offense, coaching staff, and Miller/Barret, not Thomas. He was a freak from the getgo.
By from the getgo, you mean his 4th year of college, 3rd year at tOSU and at the age of 21?
After HS, he went to military school. Then went to tOSU and had 3 catches for 22 yards. Then he was redshirted the next year. So I don't see how he was a freak until age 21 and in his 4th year of college.
That's because you are looking at text on paper stat lines and not the football player on the field. I live here, I watched practices, scrimmages, games. I saw an extremely talented player from the getgo.
You are gonna have to ask the guy that made that decision. I can think of many plausible speculations though:
I was thinking the total opposite. That's what is fun about dynasty, there's a much wider range of opinions on players. I'm a dynasty novice so I'm prolly wrong here, but I'd sell now as a Thomas owner.
He has everything you want in the #1 overall dyno WR. Targets, QB, talent and the offense in a bad defensive division that will throw a lot, as they have always done for the past 10 years.
Thats whats great about fantasy, people will always proven wrong...yet somehow try to explain away how wrong they are with excuses after the fact solidifying that their opinions shouldnt be valued.
I think I laid out a very solid reason people are overshooting Thomas. Also this great offense is dependent on a 38 year old QB.
I think I laid out a very solid reason people are overshooting Thomas. Now throw in this great offense is dependent on a 38 year old QB.
I disagree, 38 year old QB huh, thats what you are going with? His points this year matter to his career as a dyno player as well. How old is OBJs, Antonio Browns, Gronks QB?
While this is true, you may also want to remember a guy named Odell Beckham, Randy Moss, even Mike Evans had 1200 yards his sophomore year. While there are examples of great rookies who fell off in year 2, there are also examples of rookies who didn't fall off in year 2.
Which receivers would you put ahead of him? Brown, obj, Julio, Evans, green, Cooper, and let's throw in Hilton and dez if you want. And we'll forget that Cooper hasn't had a year as good as Thomas did last year, or that people anointed him the next big thing after less NFL production than Thomas showed. That's 8.
Off the top of my head?
yes, when all is said and done and people look back on his career, who knows?
Aren't you the guy touting Brandon Cooks? You know Brady is a year & a half older than Brees & Brees had just as good a year as Brady did in 2016, right? Why is it high to expect Thomas to be a #1 WR, but not for Cooks?
Complete list of players with 1000+ receiving yards as a rookie during the past 20 years: Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Michael Clayton, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Marques Colston, Kelvin Benjamin.
Yeah; two years of Thomas with prime Brees> than 1 year of Cooks with prime Brady, broski.
Perhaps they believe he will do it again this year & they'd like to have that success occur on their FF roster?
I don't get it. I never commented on where I have either of them ranked in Dynasty. All I suggested was that Thomas wasn't my #1.
If Thomas had been in the NFL for 2 seasons and both years were as good as last year, then I think he'd generally be seen as #3 dynasty WR, behind only Beckham & Evans. There are a lot of good options after Beckham & Evans but they all have some warts - it seems like there are about 10 other guys who have a plausible case for being in the top 6 WRs, but none who look as good as the fictional Michael Thomas with a 2 year track record.
Think he's the ost over-rated player in dynasty. Really a lot of his production is Brees and that offense.
I don't think Thomas ends up like Michael Clayton or Mike Williams (TB), who are guys known for partying their way out of the NFL, because he has Uncle Keyshawn in his ear telling him what it takes to be a great NFL player. He already knows the next level of dedication it takes in working out and eating right and living right that it takes some guys years to figure out (Devante Parker?) if they ever do. It's tough to even make the top 10 wrs, let alone stay there for more than a year or two. Most guys take 2-3 years of flashing potential before they get there. Thomas hit the ground running and got it done year 1. If he does it again, he'll be nearly untouchable in leagues. He could regress some and still be in that untouchable range.
Wait, THE #1? Sorry, I read it as A #1 WR- my apologies. I don't see him as the #1 WR on dynasty leagues, either.
Here is another way to look at things (and is a conversation in it's own right of age vs NFL experience). Over the last 20 years, there have been 42 1000 yard seasons by NFL WRs less than 24 years of age. Thomas had the 31st most yards by a WR 23 or younger. He is one spot behind Cooks 2015 season and one spot ahead of Terry Glenn's 1996 season. The list still has lots of great names: Julio, Fitzgerald, Calvin, Andre Johnson. It just also has more mediocre to disappointing players like Koren Robinon, Nate Burleson and Germaine Crowell.
