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Contrary to popular myth at this point, Trump didn’t really bring in a lot of new voters last time around. He won by getting traditional Democrats to switch over.
Can't ditch family. *shrugs*
Yeah that’s part of the ugliness I was talking about that is bound to come out if Bernie does as well as expected tonight.
I don't know the answer to that. On first blush I'd look at states that either have or have recently had Senators or Governors who were R's like Colorado, Nevada, or New Mexico. But I think like Trump, it's hard to poll Bernie. I do think unlike 1984 we are so polarized that no matter who either side puts up there are boatloads of EV's in the bank for either side. Not every state is up for grabs under any scenario.
And this is why I asked. It seems to me that if Bernie is the nom, then the states that Hillary won should pretty much fall in line leaving Wisconsin, Penn, Michigan, and florida etc (maybe North Carolina given the shift we saw in 2018??) as primary places to focus. I'm not sure how well his message would resonate here in Florida, but I can see people falling in love with his message in Mich, Penn and Wisconsin. It's pretty much the same pitch that Trump gave from a significantly less morally corrupt pitcher. On top of that, the lack of results from Trump promises in those states and maybe they are willing to try someone else. Who knows? It's not going to take a lot of voters to change their minds in those areas either.
I pretty much agree with all the theory above about the states. I think Trump just really needs 1 of WI/PA/MI to win again. The only way I see that as not being the case is if given the scenario you laid out that somehow he then flipped a CO/NV/NM type state. I haven't looked to see what the final votes were in those states. But in reality we could safely predict 40 of the 50 states today with almost 0 variance.
Could only see nevada. Sanders is strong in MN and NH compared to hillary in 2016 and those were tight races. Polling at one point in Nevada had trump/sanders dead heat. Sanders is now up a bit.
Meh. The only truly personal part there is the last bubble comment, and relatively speaking from what we've seen on the PF, is on the soft side of things.
This is a harsh and unfair comment and exactly why we have Trump. Love my brother, it's the only way.
I think his worst-case scenario is losing all the states Hillary did along with Nevada and New Hampshire. Hillary lost pretty much every close contest in swing states, so Bernie's floor in the electoral college isn't much lower than her performance in 2016.
Maher talked about this on the last show. You are probably the only that has done anything.
I think Bernie's strength with Latino voters should not be underestimated. Little known fact about white Iowa there are a good number of eligible latino voters and they love Tio Bernie.
Well that's why I haven't been here. I've been spending that time trying to GOTV. I know I have moved some folks. I hope I helped a bit. I know I tried. And I'll keep trying. But I'm not alone and there are many who have done so much more. I hope we see the fruit of our labor beginning tonight.
Smiling over here for you NCCommish. You've been down with this cause for a long time now.
Oh yeah, only in the worst-case scenario will Bernie be vulnerable in Nevada IMO--otherwise he should be favored there. Overall he's made some significant inroads with minority voters since 2016.
While I’m not a Bernie fan and he’s at the bottom of my list of candidates I do absolutely believe he is authentic and a true believer in what he stands for. That has a component of being refreshing in today’s political environment.
Just listening to Chuck Rocha talking about Bernie's Latino outreach in Iowa. Over 700,000 mailers, daily in Spanish language newspapers and Spanish language radio. They have put in a lot of outreach and this is another underpolled group based on historical lack of participation. I'm hoping for some big surprises for a lot of analysts.
Hey NC, just want to compliment your forecasting ability. You predicted this a long time ago and you stuck with him when nobody thought this was at all likely. I may not love the result but you’re looking exceptionally smart right about now.
Definitely working to get out the vote here in Florida. It's a new area for me and it's taking time to understand what's going on here, so I am just trying to get as many people to vote as possible. Since I am registered independent, I don't get to vote in the Dem primary here in Florida.
This is my feeling as well....just wanted to see if there was something I was missing. Are Nevada and NH real concerns or just possibilities greater than 0 but less than 50?
I'd say NH is a real concern because it was pretty tight in 2016. Trump led that state until very late in the night. I forgot it when looking at possible states in play. Hillary won by 0.37%.
I of course disagree. He has a broad base of support. He draws from every demographic, including Republicans. I think there is a narrative that is ignoring the reality of the situation of too many people in this country. Trump got it and rode it to the WH. Then he betrayed it. Bernie can ride it in as well difference is he won't betray it.
I quickly recanted by saying that if he can tap into the true disillusioned/disaffected voter and not just the identity voter that Trump did, he'll have a definite chance.
Unfortunately the socialism fear mongering is very real and very effective with the large chucks of the fiscally conservative crowd, even those that lean left on social issues. That’s the crowd that abstains or holds their nose and votes Trump if it’s Bernie or Warren.
But here is where you and I might part ways in the political realm. It isn't fear-mongering when it's a moniker he gives himself. He calls himself a democratic socialist. Not a social democrat like Europe, but a specific term of art denoting a specific political philosophy. Therefore, when people go, "ewww...socialist," it's not a misinformation campaign, it's one he signed off on.
Who would likely also describe themselves as socialists.
For sure. I’m not even talking about the nomenclature, I’m referring to the effectiveness of that platform within our government. I say it’s fear mongering because the free-for-all socialist mentality just won’t pass through our levels of governance. It’s not like the GOP party dies the second Bernie/Warren get into office. And if by some miracle the DEMs take congress and the WH the pendulum swings back the other way in short order. We won’t become a socialist country just because the president elected identifies as socialist.
Honestly even if he had a super majority I'm as worried about the Dems not working with him as I am the GOP
Ah, that's what you mean. I agree. There are policies he'd probably like to pass but won't be able to due to normal checks and balances. That doesn't make him a capitalist -- and indeed he'll still be a socialist -- but the policies pushed and passed will look like social democracy.
Exactly. Worst case scenario we get a few expensive (compromised) programs that don’t really work. Certainly wouldn’t be the first time that’s ever happened an certainly wouldn’t be the end of capitalism in America
What do you call legislation that gets passed today where corporate welfare is front and center?
