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Dynasty & Redraft: Patriots TE Hunter Henry - Bill Belichick cares nothing about your fantasy football team


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3 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

two guys made of glass.  good when they play but the can't stay healthy. and their contracts will be higher than a rookie TE , right? just find a good one in the draft.

Henry is great when he plays, not good. Of the two tight ends he is far better than Hooper.

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Speaking Tuesday, Chargers GM Tom Telesco confirmed that impending free agent Hunter Henry is a candidate for the franchise tag.

Telesco added that the team would prefer a long-term contract, and that talks are ongoing. Henry would be due roughly $11 million under the tag. Despite his injury issues and an up and down 2019, Hunter would be an extremely hot commodity on the open market. The tag is a distinct possibility.

SOURCE: Jeff Miller on Twitter

Feb 25, 2020, 1:13 PM ET

 

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ESPN's Jenna Laine reports the Chargers are expected to franchise tag TE Hunter Henry.

Henry has been nothing short of spectacular when healthy during his short career, but he's ultimately played in just 41-of-64 regular season games since being drafted in 2016. Still, the presence of Henry, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams gives the Chargers one of the league's better trios of pass catchers entering the 2020 season. Of course, it remains to be seen who will be tasked with getting these players the football. The leading candidate for now is Tyrod Taylor, but this is a good enough offensive environment to foster a rookie signal caller sooner rather than later.

SOURCE: Jenna Laine on Twitter

Mar 2, 2020, 1:55 PM ET

 

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

I like Henry, and I think the Chargers should keep him, but the overhype is out of control on how good he is.

I don't think so myself, feel it's warranted. Had this same conversation last year, not sure if it was with you, and the counter to what I'm about to say was OJ Howard. Fair enough. But I think there are reasons other then just Arians why Howard can't get more targets.. In LAC while it's a TE friendly system with Allen, the RB's and slower tempo it's not easy to get a lot of targets as some of these others and in my opinion health and targets have been the issue and only issue.

But on a per target basis Henry is pretty much just as good as the current consensus top 3 TE's, arguably the best.

Looking at them in terms of career catch rate, ypc and TD's per target:

Henry, 71.2% catch , 12.6 ypc,  one TD per 11.23 targets

Kelce, 70.9% catch, 12.8 ypc,  one TD per 19.32 targets

Kittle, , 70.8% catch, 13.6 ypc, one TD per 25.41 targets

Ertz, 68.9% catch, 10.9 ypc, one TD per 21.8 targets

So again you can use an example like OJ Howard and just throw all this aside. You can say Henry's efficiency is helped a little by defensive focus on other targets and I'd agree, but the others have had varying degrees of players to take attention away as well with Kittle easily having the least.

But I feel based on what I see and statistically when Henry is healthy and they actually use him he's been every bit as spectacular as the top TE's in the game today. It's also why I badly wanted him to leave LAC even when I was not worried about Tyrod being his QB next year, think way to often he's not utilized enough. Looks like I'm going to have to wait till next year.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I don't think so myself, feel it's warranted. Had this same conversation last year, not sure if it was with you, and the counter to what I'm about to say was OJ Howard. Fair enough. But I think there are reasons other then just Arians why Howard can't get more targets.. In LAC while it's a TE friendly system with Allen, the RB's and slower tempo it's not easy to get a lot of targets as some of these others and in my opinion health and targets have been the issue and only issue.

But on a per target basis Henry is pretty much just as good as the current consensus top 3 TE's, arguably the best.

Looking at them in terms of career catch rate, ypc and TD's per target:

Henry, 71.2% catch , 12.6 ypc,  one TD per 11.23 targets

Kelce, 70.9% catch, 12.8 ypc,  one TD per 19.32 targets

Kittle, , 70.8% catch, 13.6 ypc, one TD per 25.41 targets

Ertz, 68.9% catch, 10.9 ypc, one TD per 21.8 targets

So again you can use an example like OJ Howard and just throw all this aside. You can say Henry's efficiency is helped a little by defensive focus on other targets and I'd agree, but the others have had varying degrees of players to take attention away as well with Kittle easily having the least.

But I feel based on what I see and statistically when Henry is healthy and they actually use him he's been every bit as spectacular as the top TE's in the game today. It's also why I badly wanted him to leave LAC even when I was not worried about Tyrod being his QB next year, think way to often he's not utilized enough. Looks like I'm going to have to wait till next year.

I posted this recently in a Chargers forum:

Quote

Per PFF, here is where his cumulative statistics ranked in 2019 among TEs:

  • 55 receptions – #10
  • 652 receiving yards – #9
  • 36 first downs – tied for #7
  • 164 YAC – #27
  • 5 TDs – tied for #7
  • 3 drops – tied for #13
  • 1 fumble – tied for #4
  • 5 penalties – tied for #7

Those totals all came in 12 games. Many, maybe all, of those totals would have been greater and ranked higher had he not gotten hurt. On the other hand, he has never played 16 games in a season. Even ignoring 2018, when he missed the entire season, he missed 7 games total in the other 3, an average of more than 2 games per season.

Per Player Profiler, here is where his rate-based statistics ranked in 2019 among TEs:

  • 7.2 target quality rating – #1
  • 73.9% route participation – #5
  • 11.9 YPR – #11
  • 8.6 yards per target – #9
  • 2.03 yards per pass route – #13
  • 72.4% catch rate – #13
  • 82.1% true catch rate – #23
  • 5.3% drop rate – #17

The first 2 rate statistics above (target quality rating and route participation) show that he had the opportunity to be a top 5 receiving TE. But the rest of the metrics above, both cumulative and rate metrics, show he was not.

Here is how he graded out among TEs in 2019 per PFF:

  • Overall: 73.1, #16 among 134 TEs who received a overall grades
  • Receiving: 75.0, #18 among 120 TEs who received a receiving grade
  • Run blocking: 56.8, #75 among 134 TEs who received a run blocking grade
  • Pass blocking: 56.5, #95 among 127 TEs who received a pass blocking grade

So this type of grading also does not support the idea that he is a top 5 TE. PFF would clearly grade these guys out ahead of him: Kittle, Kelce, Andrews, Higbee, Waller, Hooper, and Goedert. And they would grade Ertz and Everett as being about the same.

Football Outsiders is a bit more kind to Henry, though on balance he remains outside their 2019 top 5:

  • 138 DYAR (total value) – #5
  • 19.5% DVOA (value per play) – #9
  • 736 Effective Yards – #8

On the whole, he is a low top 10 TE, not a top 5 TE. I will also point out that his run blocking tends to be overrated on this site. He is better than Gates was, but that is a low bar. His blocking is good enough for him to dominate snaps, but he really should be running routes much more than run or pass blocking.

I think his production is likely to dip with Tyrod, Stick, or a rookie QB, and those seem like the most likely outcome at QB in 2020. All that said, I think the Chargers should and will keep him. They have the cap space and don’t need the headache of trying to replace him while also dealing with their QB, OL, IDL, LB, and CB situations.

Based on your post, we probably disagree about him, and that is fine. There is no shame in being the TE who falls in the 6-10 range of the current TE rankings, and that's where I think he is in real life. (Fantasy might be a different story without Rivers.)

I would also point out that Henry's rookie season (2016) drastically skews his TD statistics. I mean, it happened, but:

  1. It was 4 seasons ago
  2. Keenan Allen missed 15.5 games that season, but he has been healthy for the past 3 seasons
  3. The Chargers have had both Mike Williams and Ekeler emerge since then

Henry had 8 TDs on 53 targets in 2016 (1 per 6.6 targets). Since then, he has 9 TDs on 138 targets (1 per 15.3 targets). I believe that latter metric is more representative of what to expect from him going forward, though his rate will probably drop off from there when substituting Tyrod/Stick/rookie QB for Rivers.

I think the Rivers to new QB situation is underplayed for Henry and other Chargers fantasy players. It seems more likely than not that the Chargers offense is going to drop from a perennial top 10 offense to a bottom 10 offense for the foreseeable future. That is going to hurt the fantasy prospects of Henry and the other primary targets.

:2cents:

Edited by Just Win Baby
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25 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

 

Based on your post, we probably disagree about him, and that is fine. There is no shame in being the TE who falls in the 6-10 range of the current TE rankings, and that's where I think he is in real life. (Fantasy might be a different story without Rivers.)

I would also point out that Henry's rookie season (2016) drastically skews his TD statistics. I mean, it happened, but:

 

I think the Rivers to new QB situation is underplayed for Henry and other Chargers fantasy players.

Yes perfectly fine that we agree to disagree.

On the two points you raised.

You chose to focus and hone in for some reason solely on the TD's.  That's really playing with stats removing one of his 3 seasons  which I don't agree with, but even if you do that I don't know you just honed in on that stat and ignored the other numbers. Again even if you want to use selective stats and remove that year his catch percentage, yards per catch and TD's per target are in line with the other TE's I mentioned. Did not see reason to remove a season or hone it on that one stat because it did not really change the fact he still stacks up quite well against the group  I presented.

And yes I agree that any and all Chargers players faced with possibility of Tyrod and/or a rookie QB will fall statistically.  Even mentioned in a FA thread last week or so about players that could lose value and listed Henry due to threat of Tyrod/rookie.  But I think that's got less to do with Rivers then playing with an incompetent passer like Tyrod and  I don't see how that applies to a discussion about how good he is because I'm sure you'd think any of the top 10 TE's would fall statistically with Tyrod. If he gets Brady put me down as saying he'll have the best per game season of his career, and I only say per game as I'm not looking for an easy win to compare 16 games to the less then 16 he normally plays. Consequently if he gets Tyrod/rookie, I think he'll have the worst per game numbers of his career. He does not need Rivers, none of the Chargers pass catchers do, but they need better then Tyrod/Herbert/Love mess I fear they are eyeballing next year.

 

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2 hours ago, BenChodJamin said:

How do you all think he will be without Rivers in PPR (full or 0.5)?

I'd love him with Brady but my guess he's going to get some combo of Tyrod and a rookie QB not named Burrow. And in that case it's stock way down for 2020 and this is coming from someone who was just making a case I think he's an elite talent.

Honestly my advice in dynasty would be commit yourself to his long term future and be ready to ride out a likely disappointing 2020 in hopes he is able to hit UFA in 2021 or slimmer hope the rookie they draft comes on real quickly. If you don't want to commit yourself to being patient, if you are one who views players like a stock, if they franchise him like everyone thinks you might want to try moving him now.

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Chargers placed the franchise tag on TE Hunter Henry.

This was widely expected and a no-brainer move for the Chargers. Henry's injury history has limited to him playing 41-of-64 regular season games, but he's averaging 8.9 yards per career target, making him one of the better tight ends in the league when he's on the field. With the Chargers potentially going with a rookie quarterback for part of the upcoming season, it's wise to keep Henry around as a check-down option with some YAC ability. Henry will be a mid-range TE1 in fantasy drafts depending on who is under center. He'll be incentivized to have a big season to secure a long-term deal next offseason.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Mar 13, 2020, 1:26 PM ET

 

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5 hours ago, Faust said:

as a check-down option with some YAC ability

Except he really doesn't have any YAC ability.

  • 2019: tied for #89 in YAC/rec (3.0)
  • 2018: missed season
  • 2017: tied for #44 in YAC/rec (4.4)
  • 2016: tied for #25 in YAC/rec (5.5)

He has never ranked highly in YAC/rec, and his trend is negative. He is good at getting open and making the catch. After that, he gets tackled.

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  • 1 month later...

 

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Franchise-tagged TE Hunter Henry said he's "fine" playing under the tag for the entire year.

“I think it’s fine,” Henry said in an interview on SiriusXM NFL Radio. “Obviously, I think I would like to get something done. Just security, and long term and just with the team and the franchise. It’s another year of playing football, man, that’s how I look at it. . . . Whatever the situation is, I’ll be looking forward to going out with this squad." Henry and the Chargers were close to a long-term extension earlier this offseason but discussions reportedly slowed before the two sides could hammer out the final details. Even so, he's been participating in the team's virtual workouts and is fully expected to receive an extension at some point in the next calendar year. Henry turns 26 in December.

SOURCE: Pro Football Talk on Twitter

May 24, 2020, 1:43 PM ET

 

 

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Is Tyrod Taylor bad news for the fantasy outlooks of Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, and Keenan Allen?

Excerpt:

Quote

Charles Clay was a clear focal point of the Bills offense back when Tyrod Taylor was their starting QB. Does this mean good things for Hunter Henry in 2020, or does his injury history have you looking elsewhere?

Liz: It would not surprise me if Henry led all Chargers in targets. There, I said it. He’s the only pass-catching option with a skill set that could buoy either QB. Tyrod historically targets his TEs, and Herbert will likely need to. Henry’s durability issues limit his upside, but his reliability on the field makes him a fine option inside the top-10 options at the position.

Scott: Buffalo’s roster had such a different shape to it, I’m not going to take any stock in the Taylor-Clay history. Henry still could be a fine player, but this isn’t a connection I’m going to consider.

Dalton: Given Henry’s durability concerns, the competition for targets in LA, and my expectation of seeing a lot of Herbert, Henry is an easy pass at a loaded TE position. In fact, I barely have him inside my top-15 tight ends.  

 

 

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I'm curious of Parham's impact here. I don't think any TE can afford (FF) to lose 1 or 2 targets per game and keep the same value unless we're going to see a lot of a two TE offense. 

He had the classic great qualities of a TE in the XFL- carrying defenders, seeming like a man amongst boys, catching it despite being swarmed, occasional dominant blocks. I didn't see elite speed and I'm sure that impacts his ability to get on the field some. We're talking backup though with an assured starter. I think anyone that watched the XFL thinks he can definitely be a good backup and our question was could he start.

I see the tag info above and I would figure any success by Parham would be in the Chargers favor in bringing Henry's # down for future seasons.

 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

As close to zero as one can get. He's got other concerns that could torpedo his production and value but  Parham is not one of them.

I doubt that, but we'll see.

Parham had several offers and the Chargers sold him on something. Most of all though, Henry is usually around 10th TE and just about any hit to his stats makes him fall into a pretty ordinary (for FF) group. 50 catches 600 yards 5 TDs is fine, but any less really changes his value IMO.

 

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7 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

QB matters.

I didn't like the Phillip Rivers I saw last season.  While a new QB is an unknown quantity, I can see a TE being a security blanket.  Big factor may be if the Chargers need to use the TE in more blocking schemes... other than that, I see the QB change as a push, perhaps a positive. 

Edited by DropKick
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Following up the brief earlier exchange on Parham. From Chargers pressing questions:

Quote

14. What are the chances TE Donald Parham and OL Storm Norton make the roster?

Donald Parham and Storm Norton both spent the winter playing in the XFL — Parham for the Dallas Renegades and Norton for the Los Angeles Wildcats — and they parlayed their success into camp spots with the Chargers. Fans were excited by both signings because of the name recognition from the XFL, but I think that has led to their stock being a little inflated. Both guys have quite a bit of work to do to make the 53-man roster.

Parham, to me, has a better shot than Norton because the Chargers are a bit thin at tight end behind Hunter Henry. The third tight-end spot is pretty open, and if Parham shows promise in camp, especially as a blocker, he could claim it.

 

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Hunter Henry caught 5-of-8 targets for 73 yards in the Chargers' Week 1 win over the Bengals.

Henry looked healthy and moved well with the ball in his hands. His 73 yards led the team and his eight targets were right behind Mike Williams, who surprisingly played through a shoulder injury. The Chargers offense may be one that struggles to consistently move the ball in 2020 -- that was the case in Week 1 at least -- but Henry will be squarely in the mix for low-end TE1-level volume. Given the expected negative game script, Henry is a top-12 tight end option against the Chiefs in Week 2. Keep in mind that Henry is in a contract season.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman
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Hunter Henry caught 6-of-8 targets for 83 yards in the Chargers' Week 2 overtime loss to the Chiefs.

Henry has had back-to-back eight-target games with two different quarterbacks. This week, first-round rookie Justin Herbert drew a surprise start because of a Tyrod Taylor pregame chest injury. After Herbert's performance, it's likely that Henry will be catching passes from him for the rest of the season barring injury or chaos. That's good news for Henry as Herbert provides more arm talent than Taylor. Treat Henry as a top-eight tight end against the visiting Panthers in Week 3. Keep in my Henry is playing in a contract season.

Sep 20, 2020, 8:09 PM ET

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
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Hunter Henry caught 4-of-8 targets for 23 yards and one touchdown in the Chargers' Week 5 loss to the Saints.

Henry's touchdown was a perfectly-throw out route by Justin Herbert in the red zone, putting the ball only where Henry could catch it. The yards haven't been there the last couple weeks, but Henry did corral his first touchdown of the season in this one. Henry will be a middling TE1 next time out in Week 7 against the Jaguars after the bye.

Oct 13, 2020, 12:08 AM ET

 

 

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he's too good to drop but not someone you trust to start each week. at least he's getting 7-8 or so targets per game. saints d line was getting decent pressure most of the night so herbert didnt really probe the deep middle much last night (flats and deep balls mostly)

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  • 2 months later...

I can't believe the last post on the HH thread was mid-October.

He has been trending downwards with Ekeler back in the lineup, but with the recent news of Allen and Williams being true GTD, wondering if this has the making of a breakout game for him.   

He is currently on my bench, but will be watching for official rulings before tonight's game.

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He's been between 10-15 (PPR) in 4 of the last 5 games, with the New England abortion (1.5) the only stinker, but that was pretty much team-wide. For the season, he's been in that same 10-15 range 8 times and around 5-7 the rest.  So no huge games, but double digits 8 times out of 13. 

I've been starting him alongside Waller most weeks, and will probably do so again this week.

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2 hours ago, heckmanm said:

No injury designation

Sorry, just thought I read it somewhere earlier in the week 

 

I so badly want to sit Henry tonight hoping Kittle plays this week....with Irv Smith as my backup 

 

Henry is the safe play 

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1 hour ago, Wrigley said:

Sorry, just thought I read it somewhere earlier in the week 

 

I so badly want to sit Henry tonight hoping Kittle plays this week....with Irv Smith as my backup 

 

Henry is the safe play 

Thought the same thing earlier with Kittle on my IR but so far I’m happy I stuck with Henry. 

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Hunter Henry caught 5-of-7 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' Week 15 win over the Raiders. 

It was one of Henry's best overall games of the season, one where he went 4/46/1 before halftime. Frustratingly, he drew only three targets after the break, but fantasy managers managed to get what they came for in the first half. Henry's score was a 10-yarder where he caught a low throw and took on two defenders at the goal line. Ceiling has remained frustratingly elusive, but Henry has provided a decent floor. The Chargers get the Broncos for the fantasy finals in Week 16. Henry went 4/33 vs. Vic Fangio's defense earlier this season.  

Dec 18, 2020, 12:20 AM ET

 

 

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Hunter Henry was held out of Tuesday's practice.

Henry's injury is unknown. It's likely just maintenance coming off one of his best games of the season. Provided everything checks out with his health, Henry will be in the top-five mix for Sunday's game against the Broncos. 

Dec 22, 2020, 3:30 PM ET

 

 

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Hunter Henry missed Wednesday's practice with an illness.

Henry has been held out for two straight days. This is on the heels of Henry turning seven targets for 65 yards and a touchdown with a matchup against the Broncos on tap. Check back in on Sunday for an update on Henry's status.

Dec 23, 2020, 10:55 PM ET

 

 

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: Patriots TE Hunter Henry - Bill Belichick cares nothing about your fantasy football team

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