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2016 rookie draft rankings (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable

Footballguy
So I started ranking rookie players using a tier system that sorts players by their upside for fantasy football. I have spent a lot of time trying to develop this process, but a lot of it subjective and just based on what I have watched of the players as well as some opinions of others that I have read who noticed similar things. I have been busy so I have not watched as many players this year as I have the last 3 or 4 draft classes.

I feel that this rookie draft class is weaker at the skill positions than the previous two draft classes. I am no expert on college football but I have read similar opinions regarding this from people who do watch more college football than I do. I just watch cut ups of players once I know they have declared. Some players reputations precede this, but this season the only players to accomplish that for me are Elliot, Doctson,and Henry. That is a short list. I guess I did read and watch a bit of Shepherd two years ago, but I felt he was a tier 2 prospect then, somewhat reminds me of Stedman Bailey who I did like quite a bit before he got caught for juicing.

Anyhow 2016 rookie rankings

1st tier

Ezekiel Elliot
Josh Doctson
Carey Coleman
Laquon Treadwell
Devontae Booker

2nd tier

Derrick Henry
Will Fuller
Michael Thomas
Alex Collins
Sterling Shepherd
Tyler Boyd
Mike Thomas
Kenneth Dixon

3rd tier 

Pharoh Cooper
Leonte Carroo
Jordan Howard
Rashard Higgins
DeAndre Washington
Braxton Miller
CJ Prosise

 
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For comparison sake here are my rankings from 2015 and 2014 pre draft:

2015 I did things a little bit differently separating tiers into two separate tiers. The tier one prospects all together was how deep I thought the potential top 12 players was 13 deep compared to five deep of 2016.

2015

1a

WR Amari Cooper 20
RB Todd Gurley 21
RB Melvin Gordon 22
WR DeVante Parker 22, Funchess
WR Kevin White 22

1b

RB Jay Ayaji 21
RB Tevin Coleman 22
RB Ameer Abdullah 21
WR Jaelen Strong 21
WR Dorial Green-Beckham 22
RB Duke Johnson 21
QB Marcus Mariota 21
QB Jameis Winston 21

Tier 2 these players I expect to be capable of finishing top 24 at their position but not top 12. Situation could push these players into the above tier.

2a These players could jump a tier with high draft pick and/or a good landing spot.

RB TJ Yeldon 21
WR Breshad Perriman 21
WR Sammie Coates 22
WR Devin Smith 24
WR Phillip Dorsett 22
WR Tyler Lockett 22
WR/TE Devin Funchess 21

2b These players would not jump a tier with high draft pick and/or a good landing spot.

RB David Cobb 21
RB Cameron Artis-Payne 23
RB David Johnson 23
QB Brett Hundley 21
WR Nelson Agholor 21
TE Maxx Williams 21
WR Chris Conley 22
WR Kenny Bell 23
WR Rashad Greene 22
WR Austin Hill 24
RB Jeremy Langford 23
Qb Bryce Petty
TE Clive Warford 23

Tier 3 these players I expect to be fringe starters or watch list players. But they could move into the above tier due to draft positon and/or a good landing spot.

WR Stefon Diggs
RB Trey Williams 22
RB Karlos Williams
WR Darren Waller
WR Justin Hardy
RB Jarius Allen 23
40 WR Devante Davis
WR John Harris
QB Garrett Grayson
WR DeAndre Smelter
WR Titus Davis
RB Mike Davis 22
WR Ty Montgomery
TE Tyler Kroft
WR Tre McBride 22
RB Michael Dyer
QB Sean Mannion
WR Tony Lippett
Rb Matt Jones
RB Malcolm Brown 21
Rb Terrence Magee
WR Corey Grant
TE MyCole Pruitt 
RB Josh Robinson
RB Akeem Hunt
WR Jamison Crowder 21
RB Malcolm Agnew
WR DaRon Brown

2014

Tier 1 - 1st round rookie pick value
 
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Davonte Adams
 
 
Tier 2 - Potential 1st round rookie pick value in a good situation. 2nd-3rd round value if not.
 
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
TE Jace Amaro
WR Cody Latimer
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Teddy Bridgewater
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Devonta Freeman
QB Blake Bortles
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
QB Derek Carr
 
Tier 3 - Situation could push these players into the above tier. Otherwise watch list.
 
RB Isaiah Crowell
RB Terrance West
WR Martavis Bryant
QB Brett Smith
WR Robert Herron
WR Jeff Janis
RB Andre Williams
WR Kevin Norwood
WR Bruce Ellington
WR Dri Archer
RB Jerick McKinnon
RB Damien Williams
WR Shaquelle Evans
RB KaDeem Carey
WR Josh Huff
QB Tajh Boyd
WR Paul Richardson
QB David Fales
WR Jared Abbrederis
RB Storm Johnson
TE A.C Leonard
QB Logan Thomas
WR Brandon Coleman
QB Aaron Murray
WR Matt Hazel
TE Crockett Gillmore
QB Garrett Gilbert
RB Stephen Houston
WR Cody Hoffman
QB Bryn Renner
WR Mike Davis
TE Crockett Gillmore
RB Marion Grice
WR Matt Hazel
TE Colt Lyerla
RB DeAnthony Thomas
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
WR Michael Campanaro

2013

I didn't do tiers in 2013 but here is my list from that draft class

Gio Bernard
Cordelle Patterson
DeAndre Hopkins
Christine Michael
Eddie Lacy
Tavon Austin
Tyler Eifert
Travis Kelce
Zac Stacy
Monte Ball
LeVeon Bell
Keenan Allen
Stedman Bailey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quinton Patton
EJ Manuel
Marcus Wheaton
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Kenny Stills
Vance McDonald
Marcus Lattimore
Zach Ertz
Knile Davis
Ciere Wood
Joseph Randle
Dernard Robinson
Marquise Goodwin
Justin Hunter

 
Good stuff...thanks for sharing your rankings from previous years..  Always fun to go back and compare.  

 
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I keep asking myself why I am not as into evaluating rookie players this year compared to my interest even in 2012 and 2013. I wonder if it is just me or are most these players just not nearly exciting enough?

I am sure something about my perspective is influencing this.I only hav 20 2016 prospects compared to no fewer than 30 from previous years. That does not suggest to me that there is good depth in this draft class, but again maybe I just didn't watch enough players.

If the players I watched were more exciting I think that would motivate me to watch more players. They haven't been.

 
You're not alone in your high grade on Booker but I would really caution having him in the same tier as Elliot. If we were to classify Zeke it might be as an 85% effectiveness or better type of guy at everything he does. Booker (to me) is a 70% at everything guy. I just don't see the raw power, speed, violence in Booker. 

Sure in a situation where he has no one in front of him he could do alright but could you envision him forcing his way to the top of a depth chart with a decent starter there? Could you see him replacing a committee? 

It's your list and rank how you chose but tier 1 guys, IMO, are those players that are in a good situation where ever they go because they are so good that they alone make it a good situation. 

 
Borden you make a good point that Elliot similar to Gurley, and Cooper last season perhaps deserves a tier of their own.

The way I separate tiers is by asking myself if I can see the upside of these players being a top 12, top 24 or top 36 in fantasy football.

Booker is a player who I think is a complete RB, well rounded in his skill set and would be a full time player able to win a lead role for most NFL teams against most other RB. 

How different is that 15% effectiveness when it comes to winning a starting role at RB in the NFL?

I seem to be an injury magnet with some of the players I really think are good recently however. Booker seems very similar to Jay Ajayi in my opinion and I really liked both players. They are well rounded RB with some wiggle and power who can catch the ball well.

I think he has more power than Dixon but maybe not quite the quickness, but that power is what separates those two players to me. I am not as confident in Dixon being a high volume player as I am Booker.

 
The 12, 24, 36 makes complete sense too. Really the only reason suggested a tier for those elite players is because of trades. 

As for Booker, I see him as a back up, lead back in a RBBC or a stop gap workhorse. If I'm an NFL coach or GM, I'm fine with Booker being my running back but I don't feel like he is the key or focus of my offense. If he goes in the third I could see it being to the Niners or Dallas. Places where they believe in their system and just need someone to effectively execute it. 

I tend to agree with you about Dixon. Want to project him higher and I think he can do more but I'm leery. Maybe a Dion Lewis/Doug Martin mix but I'm not sure if that comes out with positive results though. 

Whats your thoughts on Jordan Howard?

 
Whats your thoughts on Jordan Howard?
Honestly I still don't know that much about him. I wouldn't have even watched him if some folks here didn't mention him as good prospect.  I did watch some of his cut ups. I think he runs out of control sometimes, He seeks contact. He has some good cuts and better power. He runs hard and fights for extra yards. I see him being injured a lot with his playing style and the explosiveness isn't quite there. There is only one season of him playing at division one and he missed four games. I don't see him as anything more than a bridge RB which is why he is 3rd tier. If he is drafted in the first 3 rounds I would consider him second tier prospect, but I don't expect that he will be.

 
I keep asking myself why I am not as into evaluating rookie players this year compared to my interest even in 2012 and 2013. I wonder if it is just me or are most these players just not nearly exciting enough?
I'm going through the same issue. After going through a few prospects and reading up on this class generally, I'm just not as interested in watching as much "film" (game cut ups and highlights) as I was in the past. This year my plan is to rely more than ever on the NFL to do my scouting for me. Draft position and situation will be even more in the forefront of who I take when I'm OTC in rookie drafts this year.

 
The way I separate tiers is by asking myself if I can see the upside of these players being a top 12, top 24 or top 36 in fantasy football.
Using this criteria nearly every rb prospect would be tier 1 given how well low-pedigree backups have been so productive. Rawls, latavius, freeman, ivory, hillman/anderson, jennings, foster, etc etc

 
Cooper is like a poor mans Mohamed Sanu. He doesn't make many yards after the catch despite being in the slot and being used on WR screens, flares and scheme that should set him up to make some YAC but he just isn't very elusive. He does win contested catches at times but he also drops some pretty easy ones.

I wouldn't say he is the worst I have watched from 2016. That would be De'Runnya Wilson.

 
Using this criteria nearly every rb prospect would be tier 1 given how well low-pedigree backups have been so productive. Rawls, latavius, freeman, ivory, hillman/anderson, jennings, foster, etc etc
Yes pretty much any RB could. But the players I have ranked as tier one, I think they are capable of more than one good season and who I think are the most likely to do so. 

 
Big ups on having Coleman in your 1st tier, @Biabreakable

Imo, he sits atop my rookie rankings for the season (I devalue RBs pretty hard for dynasty, but Zeke still sits at 2 in my books)

Don't understand the steady crapping on Coleman from people, with some going so far as to call him a flop... Think he's the most surefire hit of the WR crop this year, with an enormous ceiling.

Good stuff.

 
Just saw this from Sigmond Bloom.

https://twitter.com/SigmundBloom/status/715552901842608128

Sigmund Bloom ‏@SigmundBloom  34m34 minutes ago
Sigmund Bloom Retweeted JGoodberry
I trust joe so this got my attention  Sigmund Bloom added,

JGoodberry ‏@JoeGoodberry  2h2 hours ago
So far, the worst WR prospect I've watched is Pharoh Cooper.
That's insane, he's one of the guys that really stood out to me based on explosion and athletic ability.

Reminds me of Percy Harvin.

 
Big ups on having Coleman in your 1st tier, @Biabreakable

Imo, he sits atop my rookie rankings for the season (I devalue RBs pretty hard for dynasty, but Zeke still sits at 2 in my books)

Don't understand the steady crapping on Coleman from people, with some going so far as to call him a flop... Think he's the most surefire hit of the WR crop this year, with an enormous ceiling.

Good stuff.
I think Coleman is perhaps a better prospect than Brandin Cooks. Might need more work on his routes, but capable of being a featured WR. He is expected to be a 1st round pick and to me the only WR who might be better than Doctson from this class.

I don't use twitter or other forms of media that would cause me to hear this steady crapping on him as you say. No regrets about missing out on that.  It actually would be interesting to hear why people think he will be a bust if that is indeed the case.

 
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Eminence said:
That's insane, he's one of the guys that really stood out to me based on explosion and athletic ability.

Reminds me of Percy Harvin.
If he was Percy Harvin he would make tacklers miss about 500% more often.

 
I think Coleman is perhaps a better prospect than Brandin Cooks. Might need more work on his routes, but capable of being a featured WR. He is expected to be a 1st round pick and to me the only WR who might be better than Dobson from this class.

I don't use twitter or other forms of media that would cause me to hear this steady crapping on him as you say. No regrets about missing out on that.  It actually would be interesting to hear why people think he will be a bust if that is indeed the case.
Definitely got him above Cooks. Really liked Cooks out of college, and still like him now... But Coleman just has that UGH that makes my brain tingle.

2-3yrs, I think Coleman will already be an elite NFL wr

 
Early on in the process for the 2015 draft (those lists are pre-NFL draft except for 2013 where I couldn't find my pre NFL draft list.) Funchess was slightly more well known to me than some of the other players were at that time. His deficiencies were things that I thought he could improve on and he was still quite young coming into the NFL. These are early lists. I had Sammie Coates ranked higher than him (same tier) until I watched more and got scared off by his ball tracking issues. 

Funchess was also listed as a TE prospect by a lot of people so that possibility had me considering him as more valuable if he did get that position designation. That didn't end up happening and it was unlikely to happen, but it was a possibility at the time.

If you look at PFR he is listed as a TE. 

As far the rookie polls.

Faust said he would be doing post draft polls this year. I asked if someone in the community could do the post combine polls because I have been very busy. I found a block of time (about 3 or 4 hours) to put these rankings together, but I would have preffered to have polls, as the process of polling does help me better inform my rankings and consider players in a different light.I just didn't feel I would have time to check in often enough to keep polls moving. I got a bit frustrated with the lack of participation in the polls as well.

 
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Overall rankings have been solid in the past, really glad I didn't see this before last year's rookie draft in my league.  Took David Johnson 10th overall.  Regretted it most of last year, until I didn't.

 
Tier 11

4 RB Ezekiel Elliot Cowboys

Tier 1

15 WR Corey Coleman Browns
22 WR Josh Doctson Redskins
23 WR Laquon Treadwell Vikings

Tier 2

45 RB Derrick Henry Titans
40 WR Sterling Shephard Giants
47 WR Michael Thomas Saints
21 WR Will Fuller Texans
55 WR Tyler Boyd Bengals
86 WR Leonte Carroo Dolphins
35 TE Henry Hunter Chargers
81 TE Austin Hooper Falcons

Tier 3
85 WR Braxton Miller Texans
90 RB CJ Prosise Seahawks
94 TE Nick Vannett Seahawks

73 RB Kenyan Drake Dolphins

 
Y'all realize Coleman went to the Browns, right?
Yes.

If you want to consider bust factor which all of these players do have. I think it is reasonable to attach additional bust risk to players drafted by Cleveland.

But they will throw a ton and aside from Barnridge who is old I don't see who else they are going to throw to.

 
Yes.

If you want to consider bust factor which all of these players do have. I think it is reasonable to attach additional bust risk to players drafted by Cleveland.

But they will throw a ton and aside from Barnridge who is old I don't see who else they are going to throw to.
Yeah the fact that they will likely be trailing so much and have zero for WRs comes close to out weighing the fact they are RG3s Browns

 
How would one try to quantify NFL front offices tendencies for drafting busts?

We have the draft data. I guess the place to start would be by defining a bust. 

Once defined then we could look at each teams drafts over a certain time period and compare the bust frequency of all of the teams and use that as an additional adjustment.

What is a bust?

Cleveland has had Braylon Edwards and Josh Gordon both be top 12 WR but then not repeat that performance. I wouldn't call them busts, but there has been no staying power in their performance either. So this is unlike a lot of WR who perform at such a high level. Then you have Trent Richardson and Johnny Manziel as well.

However a bust was defined I think Cleveland would likely have a higher frequency than other teams of it occurring.

 
2016 rookie rankings

Tier 11

4 RB Ezekiel Elliot Cowboys

Tier 1

15 WR Corey Coleman Browns
22 WR Josh Doctson Redskins
23 WR Laquon Treadwell Vikings

Tier 2

45 RB Derrick Henry Titans
136 RB Devontae Booker Broncos
40 WR Sterling Shephard Giants
47 WR Michael Thomas Saints
134 RB Kenneth Dixon Ravens
2 QB Carson Wentz Eagles
1 QB Jared Goff Rams
21 WR Will Fuller Texans
55 WR Tyler Boyd Bengals
86 WR Leonte Carroo Dolphins
35 TE Henry Hunter Chargers
81 TE Austin Hooper Falcons
26 QB Paxton Lynch Broncos
51 QB Christian Hackenberg Jets

Tier 3

206 WR Mike Thomas Rams
117 WR Pharoh Cooper Rams
85 WR Braxton Miller Texans
171 RB Alex Collins Seahawks
90 RB CJ Prosise Seahawks
107 WR Chris Moore Ravens
150 RB Jordan Howard Bears
112 WR Malcolm Mitchell Patriots
172 WR Rashard Higgins Browns
143 RB DeAndre Washington Raiders
149 RB Paul Perkins Giants
140 WR Tajae Sharpe Titans
139 QB Cardale Jones Bills
91 QB Jacoby Brissett Patriots
93 QB Cody Kessler Browns
114 WR Louis Ricardo Browns
216 RB Darius Jackson Cowboys
135 QB Dak Prescott Cowboys
100 QB Connor Cook Raiders

In tier 3 the decision tree between the Rams WR and the Seahawks RBs are going to be points of contention. Moreso the Seahawk RB than the WR who could both possibly work out with the Rams. I slotted the QBs now within the tiers.

Here is the rest of the draft class in the order they were drafted. Most of the below players are ones that I haven't watched so I don't have much opinion about. There are a few like Louis Ricardo, Dak Prescott above in tier 3 I still need to watch as well. I may make a few changes as I learn more about some of these guys but this is how I would look to draft them right now.

110 TE Tyler Higbee Rams
119 RB Tyler Ervin Texans
126 WR Demarcus Robinson Chiefs
138 TE Seth Devalve Browns
153 RB Wendell Smallwood Eagles
154 WR Jordan Payton Browns 
156 RB Johnathan Williams Bills
162 QB Kevin Hogan Chiefs
163 WR Trevor Davis Packers
165 WR Tyreek Hill Chiefs
177 TE Temarrick Hemmingway Rams
180 WR Moritz Boehringer Vikings
182 RB Keenan Reynolds Ravens
184 TE Jerell Adams Giants
186 WR Jakeem Grant Dolphins
187 QB Nate Sudfeld Reskinks
188 TE David Morgan Vikings
191 QB Jake Rudock Lions
192 WR Kolby Listenbee Bills
199 WR Cody Core Bengals
201 QB Brandon Allen Jaguars
207 QB Jeff Driskel 49ers
211 RB Kelvin Taylor 49ers
213 WR Aaron Burbridge 49ers
217 TE Rico Gathers Cowboys
223 QB Brandon Doughty Dolphins
225 WR Devin Lucien Patriots
229 WR DeMarcys Ayers Steelers
230 WR Daniel Braverman Bears
231 TE Daniel Thomas Dolphins (just in case)
236 RB Dwayne Washington Lions
237 RB Daniel Lusco Saints
238 WR Devin Fuller Falcons
241 WR Charone Peake Jets
242 RB Keith Marshall Redskins
243 WR Kenny Lawler Seahawks
247 RB Zac Brooks Seahawks
252 TE Beau Sandland Panthers

 
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Solid list. I like the majority of it. I'd move up Higbee, Ervin, and Smallwood above Tajae Sharpe in your Tier 3. 

Also, move down Alex Collins, Darius Jackson, and the Tier 3 QBs to your "other" list. 

 
You can make the case that Zeke is the greatest football player of all time right now.  Doesn't make it so. 

 
Big ups on having Coleman in your 1st tier, @Biabreakable

Imo, he sits atop my rookie rankings for the season (I devalue RBs pretty hard for dynasty, but Zeke still sits at 2 in my books)

Don't understand the steady crapping on Coleman from people, with some going so far as to call him a flop... Think he's the most surefire hit of the WR crop this year, with an enormous ceiling.

Good stuff.
He's been my #1 ranked WR in this class for awhile and his draft pedigree and landing spot only solidified it but people have this foolish Browns bias in fantasy. I actually considered the Browns the best destination for a rookie WR so #1 ranked WR meets #1 destination and it's a nice match.

I'll disagree with you on two things however with the obvious being none of that puts him over Zeke.

The other items is if by surefire you mean highest floor I actually feel that is Shepard. I like the player and for his skill set love the situation. Feel supremely confident of immediate production but like upside of few other WR's more. I don't actually feel there is a surefire stud WR in this draft class so I'd hate to give anyone that label but if that's what you meant by surefire and not highest floor I'd be inclined to say it's Coleman as well.

 
2016 rookie rankings

Tier 11

4 RB Ezekiel Elliot Cowboys

Tier 1

15 WR Corey Coleman Browns
22 WR Josh Doctson Redskins
23 WR Laquon Treadwell Vikings

Tier 2

45 RB Derrick Henry Titans

1 QB Jared Goff Rams
2 QB Carson Wentz Eagles
136 RB Devontae Booker Broncos
40 WR Sterling Shephard Giants
47 WR Michael Thomas Saints
134 RB Kenneth Dixon Ravens
21 WR Will Fuller Texans
55 WR Tyler Boyd Bengals

26 QB Paxton Lynch Broncos
86 WR Leonte Carroo Dolphins
35 TE Henry Hunter Chargers
81 TE Austin Hooper Falcons

Tier 3

206 WR Mike Thomas Rams
117 WR Pharoh Cooper Rams
85 WR Braxton Miller Texans
171 RB Alex Collins Seahawks
90 RB CJ Prosise Seahawks
107 WR Chris Moore Ravens
150 RB Jordan Howard Bears
112 WR Malcolm Mitchell Patriots
172 WR Rashard Higgins Browns
143 RB DeAndre Washington Raiders
149 RB Paul Perkins Giants
140 WR Tajae Sharpe Titans
139 QB Cardale Jones Bills
114 WR Louis Ricardo Browns
216 RB Darius Jackson Cowboys
135 QB Dak Prescott Cowboys
100 QB Connor Cook Raiders

In tier 3 the decision tree between the Rams WR and the Seahawks RBs are going to be points of contention. Moreso the Seahawk RB than the WR who could both possibly work out with the Rams. I added the 1st round QB into the second tier. 

Here is the rest of the draft class in the order they were drafted. Most of the below players are ones that I haven't watched so I don't have much opinion about. There are a few like Louis Ricardo, Dak Prescott above in tier 3 I still need to watch as well. I may make a few changes as I learn more about some of these guys but this is how I would look to draft them right now.

110 TE Tyler Higbee Rams
119 RB Tyler Ervin Texans
126 WR Demarcus Robinson Chiefs
138 TE Seth Devalve Browns
153 RB Wendell Smallwood Eagles
154 WR Jordan Payton Browns 
156 RB Johnathan Williams Bills
162 QB Kevin Hogan Chiefs
163 WR Trevor Davis Packers
165 WR Tyreek Hill Chiefs
177 TE Temarrick Hemmingway Rams
180 WR Moritz Boehringer Vikings
182 RB Keenan Reynolds Ravens
184 TE Jerell Adams Giants
186 WR Jakeem Grant Dolphins
187 QB Nate Sudfeld Reskinks
188 TE David Morgan Vikings
191 QB Jake Rudock Lions
192 WR Kolby Listenbee Bills
199 WR Cody Core Bengals
201 QB Brandon Allen Jaguars
207 QB Jeff Driskel 49ers
211 RB Kelvin Taylor 49ers
213 WR Aaron Burbridge 49ers
217 TE Rico Gathers Cowboys
223 QB Brandon Doughty Dolphins
225 WR Devin Lucien Patriots
229 WR DeMarcys Ayers Steelers
230 WR Daniel Braverman Bears
231 TE Daniel Thomas Dolphins (just in case)
236 RB Dwayne Washington Lions
237 RB Daniel Lusco Saints
238 WR Devin Fuller Falcons
241 WR Charone Peake Jets
242 RB Keith Marshall Redskins
243 WR Kenny Lawler Seahawks
247 RB Zac Brooks Seahawks
252 TE Beau Sandland Panthers
Nice list. I agree with more than I don't. Would put Coleman in Tier one ahead of Elliot and I like Sterling Shepard a lot more than you do it seems. Not a fan of Booker either but agree with the rest of it for the most part.

 
I do like Coleman. If he was picked top 5 like Elliot then I could see having him in the same tier. He wasn't. I don't think he is head and shoulders betterr than Treadwell or Doctson either. That is why those 3 are in the same tier.

Many seem to like Shephard more than I do. I think he is good but not great.

Booker stands out to me among the RB group. From my perspective he translates into a 300+ touch player in the NFL which is something I cannot say confidently about the other RB in the class.

 
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Here is a quick attempt at a combined ranking of rookies from 2014 to 2016 using my lists from previous years posted above. I did move some of the players who have proven to be successful a bit higher in the tier than I originally had them. I moved Benjamin and Allen Robinson into tier one although early on I had them as only tier 2. August 25th 2014 when I updated my rankings both of them had moved into tier 1 by that time. I didn't try to rank tier 3 much and how players are ranked within the tier doesn't really matter that much as I see them all being pretty close to the same value.

Combined list

Tier 11

4 RB Ezekiel Elliot Cowboys
RB Todd Gurley 21 pick 10 Rams
WR Odell Beckham 12 Jr. NYG 21
WR Sammy Watkins 4 BUF 20
WR Amari Cooper 20 pick 4 Raiders
WR Mike Evans 7 TAM 20

Tier 1

WR DeVante Parker 22 pick 14 Dolphins
15 WR Corey Coleman Browns
22 WR Josh Doctson Redskins
23 WR Laquon Treadwell Vikings
WR Allen Robinson 61 JAX
RB Melvin Gordon 22 pick 15 Chargers
WR Kevin White 22 pick 7 Bears
RB Bishop Sankey 54 TEN 21
WR Marqise Lee 39 JAX 22
RB Carlos Hyde 57 SF 22
WR Brandin Cooks 20 NO 20
TE Eric Ebron 10 DET 21
WR Kelvin Benjamin 28 CAR
WR Jordan Matthews 42 PHI 21
WR Davonte Adams 53 GB 21

Tier 2

QB Marcus Mariota 21 pick 2 Titans
QB Jameis Winston 21 pick 1 Bucs
45 RB Derrick Henry Titans
136 RB Devontae Booker Broncos
40 WR Sterling Shephard Giants
47 WR Michael Thomas Saints
WR Jarvis Landry 63 MIA
RB Devonta Freeman 103 ATL
QB Blake Bortles 3 JAX
RB Jeremy Hill 55 CIN
134 RB Kenneth Dixon Ravens
2 QB Carson Wentz Eagles
1 QB Jared Goff Rams
WR Phillip Dorsett 22 pick 29 Colts
RB Jay Ajayi 21 pick 149 Dolphins
RB Duke Johnson 21 pick 77 Browns
21 WR Will Fuller Texans
RB Ameer Abdullah 21 pick 54 Lions
WR Dorial Green-Beckham 22 pick 40 Titans
WR Tyler Lockett 22 pick 69 Seahawks
QB Teddy Bridgewater 32 MIN
55 WR Tyler Boyd Bengals
RB Tevin Coleman 22 pick 73 Falcons
RB TJ Yeldon 21 pick 36 Jaguars
WR Nelson Agholor 21 pick 20 Eagles
WR Breshad Perriman 21 pick 26 Ravens
WR Devin Smith 23 pick 37 Jets
WR Devin Funchess 21 pick 41 Panthers
QB Derek Carr 36 OAK
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 38 TB
86 WR Leonte Carroo Dolphins
26 QB Paxton Lynch Broncos
QB Johnny Manziel 22 CLE
RB Charles Sims 69 TAM
RB Tre Mason 75 STL
WR Donte Moncrief 90 IND
TE Jace Amaro 49 NYJ
WR Cody Latimer 56 DEN
WR Jaelen Strong 21 pick 70 Texans
TE Maxx Williams 21 pick 55 Ravens
35 TE Henry Hunter Chargers
WR Sammie Coates 22 pick 87 Steelers
QB Garrett Grayson pick 75 Saints
RB David Johnson 23 pick 86 Cardinals
RB Cameron Artis-Payne 23 pick 174 Panthers
WR Chris Conley 22 pick 76 Chiefs
RB Jeremy Langford 23 pick 106 Bears
TE Clive Walford 23 pick 68 Raiders
QB Bryce Petty pick 103 Jets
QB Brett Hundley 21 pick 147 Packers
81 TE Austin Hooper Falcons
51 QB Christian Hackenberg Jets
RB Javorius Allen 23 pick 125 Ravens
WR Justin Hardy pick 107 Falcons
RB David Cobb 21 pick 138 Titans
RB Mike Davis 22 pick 126 49ers
RB Matt Jones pick 95 Redskins
RB Josh Robinson pick 205 Colts
WR Ty Montgomery pick 94 Packers
RB Lache Seastrunk 186 WAS
QB Jimmy Garoppolo 62 NEP

Tier 3

RB Isaiah Crowell
RB Terrance West 94 CLE
RB Jerick McKinnon 96 MIN
WR Martavis Bryant 118 PIT
206 WR Mike Thomas Rams
117 WR Pharoh Cooper Rams
85 WR Braxton Miller Texans
171 RB Alex Collins Seahawks
90 RB CJ Prosise Seahawks
WR Kenny Bell 23 pick 162 Buccaneers
WR Rashad Greene 22 pick 139 Jaguars
WR DeAndre Smelter pick 132 49ers
WR Tre McBride 22 pick 245 Titans
WR Stefon Diggs pick 146 Vikings
WR John Brown 91 ARI
107 WR Chris Moore Ravens
150 RB Jordan Howard Bears
112 WR Malcolm Mitchell Patriots
172 WR Rashard Higgins Browns
143 RB DeAndre Washington Raiders
149 RB Paul Perkins Giants
QB Brett Smith
WR Robert Herron 185 TAM
WR Jeff Janis
RB Andre Williams 113 NYG
WR Kevin Norwood 123 SEA
WR Bruce Ellington 106 SF
140 WR Tajae Sharpe Titans
TE Richard Rodgers 98 GB
139 QB Cardale Jones Bills
91 QB Jacoby Brissett Patriots
93 QB Cody Kessler Browns
114 WR Louis Ricardo Browns
WR Dri Archer 97 PIT
RB Damien Williams
WR Shaquelle Evans 115 NYJ
RB KaDeem Carey 117 CHI
WR Josh Huff 86 PHI
QB Tajh Boyd
WR Paul Richardson 45 SEA
QB David Fales
WR Jared Abbrederis 176 GB
RB Storm Johnson
TE A.C Leonard
QB Logan Thomas 120 ARI
WR Brandon Coleman
QB Aaron Murray 163 KC
WR Matt Hazel 190 MIA
TE Crockett Gillmore
QB Garrett Gilbert
RB Stephen Houston
WR Cody Hoffman
QB Bryn Renner
WR Mike Davis
TE Crockett Gillmore 99 BAL
RB Marion Grice 201 SD
WR Matt Hazel 190 MIA
TE Colt Lyerla
RB DeAnthony Thomas 124 KC
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz 65 HOU
WR Michael Campanaro
216 RB Darius Jackson Cowboys
135 QB Dak Prescott Cowboys
100 QB Connor Cook Raiders
WR Darren Waller pick 204 Ravens
WR Austin Hill 24 UFA Seahawks
QB Sean Mannion pick 89 Rams
RB Karlos Williams pick 155 Bills
TE Jeff Heurman pick 92 Broncos
TE Tyler Kroft pick 85 Bengals
TE MyCole Pruitt  pick 143 Vikings
WR Tony Lippett pick 156 Dolphins
RB Trey Williams 22
WR Devante Davis UDFA Eagles
WR John Harris
WR Titus Davis
RB Michael Dyer
RB Malcolm Brown 21
Rb Terrence Magee
WR Corey Grant
RB Akeem Hunt
WR Jamison Crowder 21
RB Malcolm Agnew
WR DaRon Brown
WR Jalen Saunders 104 NYJ
RB James White 130 NE
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro 138 BAL
WR Ryan Grant 142 WAS
WR Delvin Street 146 DAL
TE Arthur Lynch 155 MIA
RB Alfred Blue 181 HOU
WR TJ Jones 189 DET
QB Keith Wenning 194 BAL
WR Walt Powell 196 ARI
RB Tyler Gafney 204 CAR

 
Why do people keep bumping both threads?

Can they be merged, or can we agree to just use one of them?

...and yes, I realize I just bumped both threads.  Hopefully, this is the last time. :D

 
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So since I was curios I decided to look at RB drafted from 2002 to 2016 to see how many are drafted each year and how many in each round. I then looked at all of them by round and counted how many of them had at least one top 12ish season (sometimes I let a guy at 15 or 16 in if they were good in PPG) 

1st round 19 of 33 had a top 12 season 58%

2nd round 8 of 37 had a top 12 season 22%

3rd round 8 of 32 had a top 12 season 25%

4th round 6 of 52 had a top 12 season 12%

5th round 2 of 30 had a top 12 season 7%

6th round 3 of 45 had a top 12 season 7%

7th round 2 of 52 had a top 12 season 4%


Round


Total


Average


 


 


 


1


34


2.27


2


38


2.53


3


34


2.27


4


54


3.60


5


36


2.40


6


48


3.20


7


56


3.73


 


 


 


 


300


20.00



The percentage of RB having more than one top 12 season by round is

Round one 36%

Round two 22%

Round three 9%

Round four 2%

Round five 3%

Round six 2%

Round seven 0%

 
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As I have been talking about the difference in scoring systems somewhat today I just wanted to point out that these rankings are for standard scoring leagues.

If these were PPR leagues Henry would not be at the top of the tier 2 list (not that player order within a tier matters that much).

 
A player I missed in my original list is Malcolm Mitchel who was drafted by the Patriots in the 4th round with pick 112.

Do not know anything about him. Just saw he is being drafted as the 14th overall rookie on average from these drafts compiled by Jack

I haven't watched this guy so don't have any opinion. I read a little bit and it sounds like the Pats intend to use him in the X WR role, presumably competing with Aaron Dobson who they do not seem to like at all.

 
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Now that it has been about 10 days since the draft was completed I decided to go over my list again and see if there should be any changes. I made 3 changes which are dropping Christian Hackenberg to tier 3. I had him the bottom of tier 2 just based on draft position. I don't think he is good enough to do that really though so dropped him. I moved Michael Thomas back ahead of Sterling Shephard even though Shephard was drafted 8 spots higher. This is a move back to where I had them predraft.  I tried sorting out tier 3 a bit more so some players have moved around a bit there and a couple more guys added to it. This is still pretty much the same though.

2016 rookie rankings May 10th

Tier 11

4 RB Ezekiel Elliot Cowboys

Tier 1

15 WR Corey Coleman Browns
22 WR Josh Doctson Redskins
23 WR Laquon Treadwell Vikings

Tier 2

45 RB Derrick Henry Titans
136 RB Devontae Booker Broncos
47 WR Michael Thomas Saints (I moved Michael Thomas back ahead of Shephard because thats how I drafted.)
40 WR Sterling Shephard Giants
134 RB Kenneth Dixon Ravens
2 QB Carson Wentz Eagles
1 QB Jared Goff Rams
21 WR Will Fuller Texans
55 WR Tyler Boyd Bengals
86 WR Leonte Carroo Dolphins
35 TE Henry Hunter Chargers
81 TE Austin Hooper Falcons
26 QB Paxton Lynch Broncos

Tier 3

206 WR Mike Thomas Rams
117 WR Pharoh Cooper Rams
85 WR Braxton Miller Texans
171 RB Alex Collins Seahawks
90 RB CJ Prosise Seahawks
110 TE Tyler Higbee Rams
150 RB Jordan Howard Bears
112 WR Malcolm Mitchell Patriots
107 WR Chris Moore Ravens
156 RB Johnathan Williams Bills
143 RB DeAndre Washington Raiders
149 RB Paul Perkins Giants
172 WR Rashard Higgins Browns
140 WR Tajae Sharpe Titans
139 QB Cardale Jones Bills
154 WR Jordan Payton Browns 
51 QB Christian Hackenberg Jets (dropped from tier 2)
91 QB Jacoby Brissett Patriots
93 QB Cody Kessler Browns
114 WR Louis Ricardo Browns
216 RB Darius Jackson Cowboys
135 QB Dak Prescott Cowboys
100 QB Connor Cook Raiders

Remaining drafted players

119 RB Tyler Ervin Texans
126 WR Demarcus Robinson Chiefs
138 TE Seth Devalve Browns
153 RB Wendell Smallwood Eagles
162 QB Kevin Hogan Chiefs
163 WR Trevor Davis Packers
165 WR Tyreek Hill Chiefs
177 TE Temarrick Hemmingway Rams
180 WR Moritz Boehringer Vikings
182 RB Keenan Reynolds Ravens
184 TE Jerell Adams Giants
186 WR Jakeem Grant Dolphins
187 QB Nate Sudfeld Reskinks
188 TE David Morgan Vikings
191 QB Jake Rudock Lions
192 WR Kolby Listenbee Bills
199 WR Cody Core Bengals
201 QB Brandon Allen Jaguars
207 QB Jeff Driskel 49ers
211 RB Kelvin Taylor 49ers
213 WR Aaron Burbridge 49ers
217 TE Rico Gathers Cowboys
223 QB Brandon Doughty Dolphins
225 WR Devin Lucien Patriots
229 WR DeMarcys Ayers Steelers
230 WR Daniel Braverman Bears
231 TE Daniel Thomas Dolphins (just in case)
236 RB Dwayne Washington Lions
237 RB Daniel Lusco Saints
238 WR Devin Fuller Falcons
241 WR Charone Peake Jets
242 RB Keith Marshall Redskins
243 WR Kenny Lawler Seahawks
247 RB Zac Brooks Seahawks
252 TE Beau Sandland Panthers

 

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