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RB Kenneth Dixon, Free Agent


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8 hours ago, rickyg said:

He is droppable in dynasty after this.  Injured last year and barely came on strong towards end of the year.  

Disagree. He's really risky now, but if you have IR spots, he's absolutely a hold or a buy low.

And no, he didn't "barely" come on strong. Given his touches, he did come on strong - 4.9 ypr and 25 rec in last 8 games.

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Disagree. He's really risky now, but if you have IR spots, he's absolutely a hold or a buy low.

And no, he didn't "barely" come on strong. Given his touches, he did come on strong - 4.9 ypr and 25 rec in last 8 games.

I think he is speculative at best for the IR spot. He's going to be out 20 games. I am not even sure he was a major part of their plans this year anyway. It's 3 knee injuries in 12 months. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

I think he is speculative at best for the IR spot. He's going to be out 20 games. I am not even sure he was a major part of their plans this year anyway. It's 3 knee injuries in 12 months. 

I think he was clearly part of their plans this year if all they brought in was a 32 yo Woodhead. They certainly didn't want to trot West out there for 16 games.

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 I'm as big a Dixon honk as anyone, but this is a huge blow. He's worth holding, but Baltimore is going to have to go get someone next year, so Dixon would have to play over his head just to get a chance. It's possible, but the list of guys with multiple knee injuries early in their career who keep getting chances is pretty short. #### 

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I think he was clearly part of their plans this year if all they brought in was a 32 yo Woodhead. They certainly didn't want to trot West out there for 16 games.

With the PED suspension and the injuries, I am not sure how much they trusted Dixon for this year. It seems like they like West a lot more than we think. I didn't expect Dixon to be anything more than a back-up for the Woodhead role and the West role and the 3rd man in the platoon. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

With the PED suspension and the injuries, I am not sure how much they trusted Dixon for this year. It seems like they like West a lot more than we think. I didn't expect Dixon to be anything more than a back-up for the Woodhead role and the West role and the 3rd man in the platoon. 

No offense, but that's crazy talk!

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8 hours ago, rickyg said:

He is droppable in dynasty after this.  Injured last year and barely came on strong towards end of the year.  Suspension for first 4 games this year and now out for the season?  Dunzo. 

I will drop and try to pick him up cheaper in the draft.  

If you have IR slots, he's still worth a stash but the reality is you are probably right. He's not really special enough to survive a career that started off this way. Guys like him are a good part of what makes up the average life-span of an NFL RB only being three years. The Ravens will surely look to do better next offseason.

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14 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I think he is speculative at best for the IR spot. He's going to be out 20 games. I am not even sure he was a major part of their plans this year anyway. It's 3 knee injuries in 12 months. 

I believe his suspension does not toll - it will be considered "served" this season.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

I believe his suspension does not toll - it will be considered "served" this season.

I have heard conflicting ideas on this. It certainly helps if the IR time counts as serving it 

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

He sure looked much better last year (preseason and after he got his brace off). He was Waldman's #3 RB in his draft class. West is a JAG. 

I didn't see anything too exciting. Dixon's NFL career so far is 2 knee injuries, a PED suspension and being in a committee with Terrence West. From week 12 on, West and Dixon were used in a almost 60/40 split. Here is the 16 game pace for that time period:

Dixon: 216 touches for 1053 yards, 4.9 yards per touch and 8 TDs

West: 152 touches for 986 yards, 6.5 yards per touch and 5 TDs

Dixon had the benefit of being fresh and West was coming off of being the lead back for 3/4 of the season at this point. 

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52 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I didn't see anything too exciting. Dixon's NFL career so far is 2 knee injuries, a PED suspension and being in a committee with Terrence West. From week 12 on, West and Dixon were used in a almost 60/40 split. Here is the 16 game pace for that time period:

Dixon: 216 touches for 1053 yards, 4.9 yards per touch and 8 TDs

West: 152 touches for 986 yards, 6.5 yards per touch and 5 TDs

Dixon had the benefit of being fresh and West was coming off of being the lead back for 3/4 of the season at this point. 

Using yards per touch is absolutely silly for so many reasons, but I'll limit that rant to this: YPR is extremely variable for RBs* and you're working with a tiny sample size. 

It would be much better to split it out to YPC and YPR and estimate carries and receptions. In the last 8 games, Dixon had 73 carries @ 4.9 ypc and 25 receptions @ 6.2 ypr. West had 82 carries @ 4.0 ypc and 23 rec @ 7.4 ypr. To me, there's a vast difference between 4.9 ypc and 4.0. 4.9 is elite while 4.0 is JAG territory. The sample size leaves something to be desired on Dixon's end (I think I read that it takes 400 carries for a trend to develop), but given that West has a career 3.9 ypc over 425 carries, I think we know who he is. At least with Dixon, there's hope. 

*Take Mark Ingram for example, his YPR in the past 3 years has been 5.0, 8.1, and 6.9. That was my first player to check. My second was Adrian Peterson - even crazier numbers. In his record breaking year, he had a higher YPC (6.0) than YPR (5.4) and it wasn't a small sample - he actually had 40 receptions that year. During the lowest YPC of his career (4.4) he had his highest YPR (10.1) on 43 receptions. 

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9 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Using yards per touch is absolutely silly for so many reasons, but I'll limit that rant to this: YPR is extremely variable for RBs* and you're working with a tiny sample size. 

It would be much better to split it out to YPC and YPR and estimate carries and receptions. In the last 8 games, Dixon had 73 carries @ 4.9 ypc and 25 receptions @ 6.2 ypr. West had 82 carries @ 4.0 ypc and 23 rec @ 7.4 ypr. To me, there's a vast difference between 4.9 ypc and 4.0. 4.9 is elite while 4.0 is JAG territory. The sample size leaves something to be desired on Dixon's end (I think I read that it takes 400 carries for a trend to develop), but given that West has a career 3.9 ypc over 425 carries, I think we know who he is. At least with Dixon, there's hope. 

*Take Mark Ingram for example, his YPR in the past 3 years has been 5.0, 8.1, and 6.9. That was my first player to check. My second was Adrian Peterson - even crazier numbers. In his record breaking year, he had a higher YPC (6.0) than YPR (5.4) and it wasn't a small sample - he actually had 40 receptions that year. During the lowest YPC of his career (4.4) he had his highest YPR (10.1) on 43 receptions. 

I was just doing quick calculations to show their usage and production wasn't all that different. The reality is average yards per carry is just as useless of a stat. I am trying to find the article, but it takes something like 2000 carries before a yards per carry becomes a statistically sound number. 

 

Found it

Edited by Ilov80s
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9 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

In the last 8 games, Dixon had 73 carries @ 4.9 ypc and 25 receptions @ 6.2 ypr. West had 82 carries @ 4.0 ypc and 23 rec @ 7.4 ypr. To me, there's a vast difference between 4.9 ypc and 4.0. 4.9 is elite while 4.0 is JAG territory. The sample size leaves something to be desired on Dixon's end

I know you followed up in the very next sentence but on 89 carries and 73 carries I don't think ypc is meaningful at all and certainly not to where we can say it's a "vast" difference. All it takes is 3-4 carries in short yardage situations to create that "vast" difference.  

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I was just doing quick calculations to show their usage and production wasn't all that different. The reality is average yards per carry is just as useless of a stat. I am trying to find the article, but it takes something like 2000 carries before a yards per carry becomes a statistically sound number. 

Not when they're on the same team playing in the same situations. I don't really like to compare ypc across teams or between a scat back and a 2 down pounder on the same team, but Dixon and West played behind the same line in largely the same situations.

3 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Baltimore drafts someone or makes a free agent move...you seem,abnormally high on him....if you have an i.r. spot pit him there and wait....I think the chances are real low hes the rb1 in Baltimore next season

Oh don't get me wrong, his dynasty stock just took a massive hit and his place on Baltimore's 2018 depth chart is shaky, but he's only 23 and had a meniscus tear so it would be really dumb to say he's done forever. I don't deny I was pumped about him this year, abnormally so, as you say. I wasn't excited about their OL or passing attack - it was purely based on his talent and the lack of talent among his competition. So given that he's still very young and the injury isn't career threatening at all, I'm still expecting him to earn playing time sometime in his career.

1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I know you followed up in the very next sentence but on 89 carries and 73 carries I don't think ypc is meaningful at all and certainly not to where we can say it's a "vast" difference. All it takes is 3-4 carries in short yardage situations to create that "vast" difference.  

Well, when they're running behind the same line it seems meaningful. Plus, West has a career average of 3.9 and got bounced around to 3 teams in his first 2 years for a reason. He seems to have found a home in year 3, but didn't actually look that improved. My point with the word "vast" was that HOF players have 4.9 ypc while guys who get cut have 4.0. I don't expect Dixon to have a career 4.9 average, but the fact he did it behind the same line as West is at least notable to me.

But to your point about short yardage carries - I agree. However, I think that point works against West here. I can't easily break out short yardage carries in the 2nd half of the season, but in Dixon's 12 games he had 18 carries on 2nd and 0-3 or 3rd/4th and 0-2. In West's 16 games, he had 18 such carries. So chances are good that Dixon actually had more short yardage carries in the last 8 games than West did, considering Dixon only had 15 carries total in his first 4 games.

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

Not when they're on the same team playing in the same situations. I don't really like to compare ypc across teams or between a scat back and a 2 down pounder on the same team, but Dixon and West played behind the same line in largely the same situations.

 

That isn't what the math says. 

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15 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I'm not sure they were planning on relying on Dixon in the first place

Can't say I agree with that at all, the Ravens actions all offseason don't support your belief. Even though they knew Dixon was suspended, they responded to that by: signing a 32 year old pass catcher RB that sucks between the tackles coming off a torn ACL, and drafted zero RB's in a loaded draft class. Looks like they had every intention of relying on their existing stable of West and Dixon.

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Baltimore drafts someone or makes a free agent move...you seem,abnormally high on him....if you have an i.r. spot pit him there and wait....I think the chances are real low hes the rb1 in Baltimore next season

He had a pretty good shot had he not had this additional knee injury. Obviously now his chances are much lower so I agree, they are likely going to be looking elsewhere next year in either in FA or the draft. I am also in the camp that West is just a guy and their running game is going to struggle with him as really their only RB between the tackles this year. Bobby Rainey signing is going to do nothing for them.

 

Worth holding in dynasty IMO unless you have short benches or no IR slots. Baltimore Sun reported today that if he is IR'ed that his suspension does not toll, don't know if that is 100% accurate though, if it is then there is still an outside shot he could compete for the job next year.

Edited by Buckna
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I can't see him retaining any value.  Either West secures his position as starting RB this season or, more likely, BA drafts someone next season to be the lead dog.  I can't imagine them relying on a fourth round back who has played limited time in his first two years and has a PED issue.  If you have a deep bench, hold, but in my 22 player league you would lose the opportunity to pick up more valuable FAs.

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  • 1 month later...
7 minutes ago, matttyl said:

So he was suspended for the first 4 games, and then got hurt....and subsequently placed on the IR.  Does that mean he serves his suspension while on the IR, or does the suspension move to next year?

Next year I believe

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15 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I've read that the suspension can be concurrent with his placement on the IR.

I've read that as well, but not from any "official" sources as far as I can tell, just fan sites and such.  At this point he's on my IR spot (we have 1 of those), which I didn't think he could do while "suspended".  I'm going forward thinking he'll be eligible to play and healthy week 1 next year.

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On 9/6/2017 at 8:28 AM, LittlePhatty said:

IR players still get paychecks, right? I think under rookie contracts it's just a smaller amount than an "active" paycheck. So I guess they could just take away his pay for the suspended weeks and he could play week 1 next year. Not sure though.

There is no reduction for IR unless the team negotiated a "split" contract.  That's almost never the case with rookie deals and fairly rare with veterans of any significant stature.

Players on IR get paid, and since he was suspended without pay, his IR status won't affect it.  He will lose 4 checks while on IR and the suspension will be fulfilled by that.  It would be a real question if he were on NFI and the team chose not to pay him (which is an option for them with that reserve list).

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  • 2 weeks later...

Ravens RB Kenneth Dixon has been suspended an additional two games for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

Dixon is on IR after season-ending knee surgery at training camp. This is the latest setback to a player that's been riddled with injury and off-field issues. Dixon was given a four-game PED suspension in March, but will now be sidelined the first six weeks of 2018.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

 

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13 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I don't think I've ever been this disappointed in a player.  

You don't own K. White or ASJ!?!?!?

By the way, I dropped this dude. There are handcuff options better than his situation he's not worth a roster spot.

Tex

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Quote

The Baltimore Sun believes it's "fair to question" if the Ravens will move on from Kenneth Dixon next season.

Dixon has multiple injuries and off-field issues in his one-plus year in Baltimore. He'll serve his entire six-game suspension on IR, but is running out of chances. Dixon is likely going to need a strong 2018 offseason to keep his roster spot.

Source: Jeff Zrebiec‏ on Twitter 

Sep 15 - 6:42 PM

 

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Traded for him last year.  Gave up a lot.  Dropped him once he went on ir this offseason.  He's simply not anhigh enough draft pick or talented enough for the ravens to continue to deal with his bs.  I guess he can be a stash for deep dynasty league rosters but in my league wenonly keep 10 players every year and he won't be one of them. 

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  • 8 months later...
2 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

Got him off waivers, plan to hold through preseason but might drop for a developmental rookie. He might not be done, but if he's splitting time with Buck and Collins it might not be a worth while hold.

I think he’s well worth a hold at least until training camp. If he can win the job or a good role, his value will increase a ton.

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I’m hoping he’ll win the roll. I need to make room for my draft and I’m hoping I can trade him away and get some decent value.

ETA I’m trying to get as many 2019 1st and 2nd round picks now.

Tex

Edited by BigTex
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