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TE Darren Waller, NYG (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Snorkelson
- Start date
The Frankman
Footballguy
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The Frankman
Footballguy
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Fewer targets because they actually have players on the roster worth throwing the ball to. Plus, the odds are high that he will never produce another season at the level he did in 2019. People have career years, it's okay to bet againt lightning striking twice.
Milkman
Footballguy
Two rookies in a year there will be no OTAs or minicamps? It's not like he had 130+ targets. He could easily repeat the 117 targets he got last year. He looked amazing last year. I don't think he's going away........
North of 100 targets is tough for me to envision. Feel free to keep him where you have him, I'm not owning him anywhere in 2020.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Man I wish I could get him where I I don't own him.
Ruggs is a deep threat on a team with a QB that doesn't throw deep. Edwards might be good but he's just pushing Tyrell Williams off the field. Wallers is going to have it a lot easier this year than he had it last year and he was lights out last year.
Ruggs is a deep threat on a team with a QB that doesn't throw deep. Edwards might be good but he's just pushing Tyrell Williams off the field. Wallers is going to have it a lot easier this year than he had it last year and he was lights out last year.
He’s not on an island. I’d take the over on those projections, especially TDs, and I only have one share of Waller.
Six to seven targets per game seems entirely realistic, and there’s now very little chance he’ll be seeing over the top help with Ruggs on the field now. I think he’s even more efficient this year and will post something like 80-950-7, which would be nearly identical for fantasy to last season.
Six to seven targets per game seems entirely realistic, and there’s now very little chance he’ll be seeing over the top help with Ruggs on the field now. I think he’s even more efficient this year and will post something like 80-950-7, which would be nearly identical for fantasy to last season.
Milkman
Footballguy
I see that. That's where I was last year with him. That offense doesn't match Ruggs at all. Ruggs should open things up though. The tape looks fantastic. They did add a lot of pieces to the offense but when I look at it Waller is still the best receiving option they have. So it doesn't scare me.
Meh we'll see what happens. I think he's a star.
Milkman
Footballguy
I remember him being robbed of like 3-4 TDs last year. I know that happens to everyone but he was tackled on the 1,2,2, and shoestring tackled on a 76 yard gallop that would have been a TD too.
What else I saw watching his highlights.
The Raiders were behind a lot. I anticipate that happening more.
He lined up all over the formation. He beat CB on the outside regularly. He also got tons of catches against LB. He's to big for CB and to fast for LB.
He runs great routes. He has great subtleties to his game. Faked LB into thinking he was blocking only to run a route as soon as they relaxed.
His hands are great.
He's played a full year with Carr.
All this packed into a 6'6 260 pound frame that runs a 4.46 yard 40, 37 inch vert, 125 inch broad jump, and 7.07 3 cone.
Playing with Carr hurts him a bit. I also downgraded him a bit because of his significant drug relapse risk. That risk is higher than most people realize and should be factored in. If he didn't have that risk he'd be tied for the #1 TE in FF with Kelce and Kittle imo.
What else I saw watching his highlights.
The Raiders were behind a lot. I anticipate that happening more.
He lined up all over the formation. He beat CB on the outside regularly. He also got tons of catches against LB. He's to big for CB and to fast for LB.
He runs great routes. He has great subtleties to his game. Faked LB into thinking he was blocking only to run a route as soon as they relaxed.
His hands are great.
He's played a full year with Carr.
All this packed into a 6'6 260 pound frame that runs a 4.46 yard 40, 37 inch vert, 125 inch broad jump, and 7.07 3 cone.
Playing with Carr hurts him a bit. I also downgraded him a bit because of his significant drug relapse risk. That risk is higher than most people realize and should be factored in. If he didn't have that risk he'd be tied for the #1 TE in FF with Kelce and Kittle imo.
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Honestly the relapse is the first thing I think of with him, especially in these batshizz crazy times when our lives are disrupted and people have been stuck at home. Very easy to backside in this climate.
I dont disagree with any of your points really. He really popped on tape last year. Moreau was already annoying in the red zone though and now 4 more weapons are arriving. I dunno, just think everything points to last year being the high water mark statistically but I like the player and am rooting for him.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not an island. I absolutely think his numbers will regress but that doesn't mean he isn't startable. Still a lot of meat on the bone. In FFPC this projection gets 209 points. That would have been good for TE7 in 2019. Probably too expensive to draft him in redraft but in dynasty still totally worth a start. Or hold if you will. Now I drafted him in my rookie/FA drafts last year *everywhere* from the mid 3rd to 6th round. So I absolutely have flipped him where I can, but in many leagues I'm holding.
There is a non zero chance his TD rate goes up and he outperforms projections as well. I think @Milkman may be right about coverage shifting as well.
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
Depends on Carr. If he finds the form he had in 2016 again, then everyone will eat, with Waller/Jacobs the lions at the table. But if DC continues playing conservative and scared half the time, then the target spread will make most of them either worthless, streaky or under-achieving relative to upcoming draft prices.
Big potential with this Raiders offense, but QB and youth are question marks, at least heading into this year.
Big potential with this Raiders offense, but QB and youth are question marks, at least heading into this year.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Agree. As far as raw physical attributes, Waller is the top TE in the league. Ruggs will be a huge help.
Waller is right there with Kittle & Kelce. If this thread is any indication, he's way undervalued.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I believe with the addition of all those WRs Waller's numbers will decline, but yes, I think he's very talented and undervalued. Having said that, he is a sell IMO and I usually don't use those two words together, "undervalued" and "sell".
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Man, I don't see how Waller is a sell.
Those TDs are going to go up & I can't see his targets regressing much. The number of quality targets will definitely go up.
Unless you believe Waller is a relapse risk, which seems unlikely at this point. That said, I guess it's always a possibility.
As a team, the Raiders had 373 targets to WRs and TEs. Waller was the only person over 100. Two WRs (Renfrow and TWilliams) had 71 and 67.
If you think that it is sustainable for a single TE to garner a 31% target share going forward, that's great. Personally I think the target share gets rebalanced this season.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Waller might possibly lose targets (not many), but the targets he does get will be much better, in general.
Waller was literally the only receiving threat they had last season. Defenses knew it, too.
We're talking about an elite receiver here. No TE has better physical traits & Carr isn't exactly a scrub. Ruggs is an overlooked dynamic, as well.
+1
If he stays clean and healthy he should be a top-5 TE for at least the next three or four years.
He's a fine TE, but I don't think he's elite. Not a difference maker, and this team just acquired three rookies who will likely ensure that Waller's role decreases as the season wears on.
I'd love to own him in dynasty at last season's prices. I'm not paying up for him today, because I simply believe there are 5-12 TEs that are all mix and match after TE4. I prefer to spend as little as possible on the guy ranked near the bottom of that list, who (in my mind) is just as likely to finish in the TE5-8 range.
Football Jones
Footballguy
For the next 3 years (through his age-30 season), I believe Waller is a stone-cold lock to be top-5 on average (assuming availability).
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
Everything factors in, but I'm not of the opinion Ruggs & company hurts him (quite the opposite long-term).
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
Haha.
Well, Waller is past the stash stage Rico was in. Many of those types don't work out for the obvious reason, but I've hit on enough to make it more than worthwhile. It doesn't take many Tyreeks to overcome some misses.
Just think of Rico as potential & Waller as production.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
BTW, at some point, I'm going to rekindle the stash debate. There's an art to hitting on stashes & how much of your roster should be devoted to them.
It's a huge advantage when you hit on one because there's essentially nothing invested other than a roster spot. You didn't have to allocate a resource(s) to acquire them which is one of the keys to winning in FF, especially in dynasty leagues.
It's a huge advantage when you hit on one because there's essentially nothing invested other than a roster spot. You didn't have to allocate a resource(s) to acquire them which is one of the keys to winning in FF, especially in dynasty leagues.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Edward's is the only real threat. He could be really good. Ruggs doesn't fit well in this offense and will probably never be heavily targeted.
Waller will be Carr's safety blanket again this year. There's no offseason camps guys. This year the rookie WR are going to be lost the first 2 months of the season.
Waller will be Carr's safety blanket again this year. There's no offseason camps guys. This year the rookie WR are going to be lost the first 2 months of the season.
I would be very interested in this discussion, I feel like my taxi squad spots are just wasted year after year.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm used to not having a TS so a little bit different dynamic.
My general philosophy is to favor upside over production with the bottom part of my roster, but there's a lot of factors to consider. I typically roster as many stashes as I can get away with (usually anywhere from 0 to 4). I may have to cut some during the season, but hopefully, I can acquire them again later if it makes sense. I loosely categorize players as stashes, legit prospects, & producers.
Definitely a topic I want to discuss further, myself. I plan on starting a thread sometime this summer.
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Milkman
Footballguy
It's how I own Kittle and Chark right now. They were basically free. Grabbed Jarwin like that late last year and that's looking promising now too.
Deamon
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Same, I've cleaned up this way over the years and it allows me to shift more resources into my starting lineup by consolidating previous depth when I hit on new stashes. Kelce, Kittle, Waller are all guys I've hit on this way and that's just at TE. The other, more difficult art is knowing when a stash should just be flipped to a bigger believer after a flash for a 3rd or something to free up that roster spot and keep the stashes churning, while gaining "free" value but giving up any further upside on that particular stash. It can be a difficult call, and only matters in leagues that are active and knowledgeable about young depth players anyways. I'm lucky to be in leagues that meet those criteria but not everyone is.
The other byproduct of having success this way over time is that you get a rep as someone who tries to shark young stashes and has a good nose for them. So you need to compensate and send offers differently when you're trying to get the right throw-ins on larger deals, disguising your true interest and settling "down" to your guys.
I would enjoy a stash discussion both past history and certain things to look for. But there’s so many different league formats that stashes mean something different depending on the player pool that’s rostered. DJ Clark or similar would never be available for free in the leagues I play in typically.
On The Rocks
Evil Conservative
A little suprised with the new FBG article showing Waller as the number 1 TE to avoid. Most of the comments alluded to the idea that he came out of no where to have the big numbers last year as if he had been a 10 year journeyman. I'm not saying they're right to say his numbers could take a dip, but I don't get the impression he's a guy that will drop out of the top 10.
