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TE Darren Waller, LV


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Darren Waller caught 5-of-7 targets for 78 yards in Oakland's Week 11 win over the Bengals.

It's the first time Waller's exceeded three receptions and 52 yards since Week 7. It's also the first time he's led the Raiders in targets since their Week 8 loss to the Texans. Waller picked up a majority of his yardage in the final 15 minutes, exploding for a 32-yard catch up the sideline to open the fourth quarter and breaking off a 23-yard crossing route on the team's ensuing drive. Waller remains on pace for 115 targets as Derek Carr's go-to option, locking him in as a volume-based TE1 over the second half of the season.

Nov 17, 2019, 8:32 PM ET

 

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Darren Waller caught 7-of-9 targets for 100 yards in the Raiders' Week 13 loss to the Chiefs.

The nine targets were Waller's most since Week 2 and second-most of the season, while this was his first 100-yard game since Week 7. Waller is still in a five-game touchdown drought but remains one of the top fantasy tight ends week in and week out due to his commanding share of the targets in Oakland, especially with slot man Hunter Renfrow (ribs) out. Waller gets a date with the Titans in Week 14.

Dec 1, 2019, 7:36 PM ET

 

 

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Darren Waller caught all six targets for 73 scoreless yards in the Raiders' Week 14 loss to the Titans.

Waller remains allergic to the end zone, but he continues to get fed TE1-level targets. The breakout tight end should see 6-10 targets with Hunter Renfrow sidelined, and he may have a better chance of touchdowns if TE Foster Moreau (knee) misses time after doing the splits while going out of bounds. Waller will be a mid-range TE1 against the tanking Jaguars next week.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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Darren Waller caught all four of his targets for 37 yards in the Raiders' Week 16 win over the Chargers.

Waller's usage took a massive hit with Hunter Renfrow back in the lineup after missing three weeks. Renfrow ended up leading the team in all receiving categories with 7-107-1 on nine targets. Waller will close out his breakout season in Week 17 against the Broncos.

 

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Raiders coach Jon Gruden said Darren Waller underwent thumb surgery.

"He'll be OK," Gruden added. This injury could also help explain Waller's two drops in Oakland's final three games. The 27-year-old offseason sleeper still exceeded all expectations in his first year as an every-down starter, piling up 90 receptions for 1,145 yards and three scores as Derek Carr's go-to safety valve. 2019 fourth-rounder Foster Moreau does instill competition for Waller inside the 10-yard line, but the latter entrenched himself as a dynasty cog and top-five season-long option at his position in 2020.

SOURCE: Vic Tafur on Twitter

Dec 30, 2019, 4:28 PM ET

 

 

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Everybody knows teams starting using their #1 CB on Waller last season after they realized he was killing teams. This year they won't be able to do that. So now he'll be covered by LB, S, and lesser CB and his numbers are supposed to drop? Lolol ok........

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13 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Everybody knows teams starting using their #1 CB on Waller last season after they realized he was killing teams. This year they won't be able to do that. So now he'll be covered by LB, S, and lesser CB and his numbers are supposed to drop? Lolol ok........

Fewer targets because they actually have players on the roster worth throwing the ball to.  Plus, the odds are high that he will never produce another season at the level he did in 2019.  People have career years, it's okay to bet againt lightning striking twice.

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4 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Fewer targets because they actually have players on the roster worth throwing the ball to.  Plus, the odds are high that he will never produce another season at the level he did in 2019.  People have career years, it's okay to bet againt lightning striking twice.

Two rookies in a year there will be no OTAs or minicamps? It's not like he had 130+ targets. He could easily repeat the 117 targets he got last year. He looked amazing last year. I don't think he's going away........

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34 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Two rookies in a year there will be no OTAs or minicamps? It's not like he had 130+ targets. He could easily repeat the 117 targets he got last year. He looked amazing last year. I don't think he's going away........

North of 100 targets is tough for me to envision.  Feel free to keep him where you have him, I'm not owning him anywhere in 2020.

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34 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Witten, Ruggs, Edwards, Bowden all new with Moreau, Tyrell, Jacobs still hanging around.  There is much more competition for targets.  Waller looked great last year but if you can get solid value its probably wise to move him.

:goodposting: 

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Man I wish I could get him where I I don't own him. 

Ruggs is a deep threat on a team with a QB that doesn't throw deep. Edwards might be good but he's just pushing Tyrell Williams off the field. Wallers is going to have it a lot easier this year than he had it last year and he was lights out last year. 

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He’s not on an island.  I’d take the over on those projections, especially TDs, and I only have one share of Waller.

Six to seven targets per game seems entirely realistic, and there’s now very little chance he’ll be seeing over the top help with Ruggs on the field now.  I think he’s even more efficient this year and will post something like 80-950-7, which would be nearly identical for fantasy to last season.

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6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

You're out on an island on this one.  Consensus FBG projections is for him to get about 70 receptions, 800 yards and 3-4 TDs.

I see that. That's where I was last year with him. That offense doesn't match Ruggs at all. Ruggs should open things up though. The tape looks fantastic. They did add a lot of pieces to the offense but when I look at it Waller is still the best receiving option they have. So it doesn't scare me. 

 

Meh we'll see what happens. I think he's a star. 

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I remember him being robbed of like 3-4 TDs last year. I know that happens to everyone but he was tackled on the 1,2,2, and shoestring tackled on a 76 yard gallop that would have been a TD too.

What else I saw watching his highlights.

The Raiders were behind a lot. I anticipate that happening more.

He lined up all over the formation. He beat CB on the outside regularly. He also got tons of catches against LB. He's to big for CB and to fast for LB. 

He runs great routes. He has great subtleties to his game. Faked LB into thinking he was blocking only to run a route as soon as they relaxed. 

His hands are great. 

He's played a full year with Carr. 

All this packed into a 6'6 260 pound frame that runs a 4.46 yard 40, 37 inch vert, 125 inch broad jump, and 7.07 3 cone. 

 

Playing with Carr hurts him a bit. I also downgraded him a bit because of his significant drug relapse risk. That risk is higher than most people realize and should be factored in. If he didn't have that risk he'd be tied for the #1 TE in FF with Kelce and Kittle imo. 

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31 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I remember him being robbed of like 3-4 TDs last year. I know that happens to everyone but he was tackled on the 1,2,2, and shoestring tackled on a 76 yard gallop that would have been a TD too.

What else I saw watching his highlights.

The Raiders were behind a lot. I anticipate that happening more.

He lined up all over the formation. He beat CB on the outside regularly. He also got tons of catches against LB. He's to big for CB and to fast for LB. 

He runs great routes. He has great subtleties to his game. Faked LB into thinking he was blocking only to run a route as soon as they relaxed. 

His hands are great. 

He's played a full year with Carr. 

All this packed into a 6'6 260 pound frame that runs a 4.46 yard 40, 37 inch vert, 125 inch broad jump, and 7.07 3 cone. 

 

Playing with Carr hurts him a bit. I also downgraded him a bit because of his significant drug relapse risk. That risk is higher than most people realize and should factored in. If he didn't have that risk he'd be tied for the #1 TE in FF with Kelce and Kittle imo. 

Honestly the relapse is the first thing I think of with him, especially in these batshizz crazy times when our lives are disrupted and people have been stuck at home.  Very easy to backside in this climate.

I dont disagree with any of your points really.  He really popped on tape last year.  Moreau was already annoying in the red zone though and now 4 more weapons are arriving.  I dunno, just think everything points to last year being the high water mark statistically but I like the player and am rooting for him.

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4 hours ago, tangfoot said:

You're out on an island on this one.  Consensus FBG projections is for him to get about 70 receptions, 800 yards and 3-4 TDs.

Not an island. I absolutely think his numbers will regress but that doesn't mean he isn't startable. Still a lot of meat on the bone. In FFPC this projection gets 209 points. That would have been good for TE7 in 2019. Probably too expensive to draft him in redraft but in dynasty still totally worth a start. Or hold if you will. Now I drafted him in my rookie/FA drafts last year *everywhere* from the mid 3rd to 6th round. So I absolutely have flipped him where I can, but in many leagues I'm holding. 

There is a non zero chance his TD rate goes up and he outperforms projections as well. I think @Milkman may be right about coverage shifting as well.

Edited by barackdhouse
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6 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

He’s not on an island.  I’d take the over on those projections, especially TDs, and I only have one share of Waller.

Six to seven targets per game seems entirely realistic, and there’s now very little chance he’ll be seeing over the top help with Ruggs on the field now.  I think he’s even more efficient this year and will post something like 80-950-7, which would be nearly identical for fantasy to last season.

I’m with you.   I think Riggs opens things up for Waller and he gets about 95 targets.  

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Depends on Carr. If he finds the form he had in 2016 again, then everyone will eat, with Waller/Jacobs the lions at the table. But if DC continues playing conservative and scared half the time, then the target spread will make most of them either worthless, streaky or under-achieving relative to upcoming draft prices.

Big potential with this Raiders offense, but QB and youth are question marks, at least heading into this year.

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On 6/2/2020 at 3:01 PM, Milkman said:

I remember him being robbed of like 3-4 TDs last year. I know that happens to everyone but he was tackled on the 1,2,2, and shoestring tackled on a 76 yard gallop that would have been a TD too.

What else I saw watching his highlights.

The Raiders were behind a lot. I anticipate that happening more.

He lined up all over the formation. He beat CB on the outside regularly. He also got tons of catches against LB. He's to big for CB and to fast for LB. 

He runs great routes. He has great subtleties to his game. Faked LB into thinking he was blocking only to run a route as soon as they relaxed. 

His hands are great. 

He's played a full year with Carr. 

All this packed into a 6'6 260 pound frame that runs a 4.46 yard 40, 37 inch vert, 125 inch broad jump, and 7.07 3 cone. 

 

Playing with Carr hurts him a bit. I also downgraded him a bit because of his significant drug relapse risk. That risk is higher than most people realize and should be factored in. If he didn't have that risk he'd be tied for the #1 TE in FF with Kelce and Kittle imo. 

Agree. As far as raw physical attributes, Waller is the top TE in the league. Ruggs will be a huge help. 

Waller is right there with Kittle & Kelce. If this thread is any indication, he's way undervalued.

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5 hours ago, Football Jones said:

Agree. As far as raw physical attributes, Waller is the top TE in the league. Ruggs will be a huge help. 

Waller is right there with Kittle & Kelce. If this thread is any indication, he's way undervalued.

I believe with the addition of all those WRs Waller's numbers will decline, but yes, I think he's very talented and undervalued.  Having said that, he is a sell IMO and I usually don't use those two words together, "undervalued" and "sell".

Edited by JohnnyU
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8 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I believe with the addition of all those WRs Waller's numbers will decline, but yes, I think he's very talented and undervalued.  Having said that, he is a sell IMO and I usually don't use those two words together, "undervalued" and "sell".

Man, I don't see how Waller is a sell.

Those TDs are going to go up & I can't see his targets regressing much. The number of quality targets will definitely go up.

Unless you believe Waller is a relapse risk, which seems unlikely at this point. That said, I guess it's always a possibility.

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45 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Man, I don't see how Waller is a sell.

Those TDs are going to go up & I can't see his targets regressing much. The number of quality targets will definitely go up.

Unless you believe Waller is a relapse risk, which seems unlikely at this point. That said, I guess it's always a possibility.

As a team, the Raiders had 373 targets to WRs and TEs.  Waller was the only person over 100.  Two WRs (Renfrow and TWilliams) had 71 and 67.

If you think that it is sustainable for a single TE to garner a 31% target share going forward, that's great.  Personally I think the target share gets rebalanced this season.

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

As a team, the Raiders had 373 targets to WRs and TEs.  Waller was the only person over 100.  Two WRs (Renfrow and TWilliams) had 71 and 67.

If you think that it is sustainable for a single TE to garner a 31% target share going forward, that's great.  Personally I think the target share gets rebalanced this season.

Waller might possibly lose targets (not many), but the targets he does get will be much better, in general.

Waller was literally the only receiving threat they had last season. Defenses knew it, too.

We're talking about an elite receiver here. No TE has better physical traits & Carr isn't exactly a scrub. Ruggs is an overlooked dynamic, as well.

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54 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Unless you believe Waller is a relapse risk, which seems unlikely at this point. That said, I guess it's always a possibility.

+1

If he stays clean and healthy he should be a top-5 TE for at least the next three or four years.

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2 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Waller might possibly lose targets (not many), but the targets he does get will be much better, in general.

Waller was literally the only receiving threat they had last season. Defenses knew it, too.

We're talking about an elite receiver here. No TE has better physical traits & Carr isn't exactly a scrub. Ruggs is an overlooked dynamic, as well.

He's a fine TE, but I don't think he's elite.  Not a difference maker, and this team just acquired three rookies who will likely ensure that Waller's role decreases as the season wears on.

I'd love to own him in dynasty at last season's prices.  I'm not paying up for him today, because I simply believe there are 5-12 TEs that are all mix and match after TE4.  I prefer to spend as little as possible on the guy ranked near the bottom of that list, who (in my mind) is just as likely to finish in the TE5-8 range.

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10 minutes ago, Popeyecon said:

+1

If he stays clean and healthy he should be a top-5 TE for at least the next three or four years.

For the next 3 years (through his age-30 season), I believe Waller is a stone-cold lock to be top-5 on average (assuming availability).

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1 minute ago, Football Jones said:

For the next 3 years (through his age-30 season), I believe Waller is a stone-cold lock to be top-5 on average, likely higher (assuming availability).

You don't think all those newly added WRs won't factor into his targets?

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16 hours ago, Football Jones said:

Agree. As far as raw physical attributes, Waller is the top TE in the league. Ruggs will be a huge help. 

Waller is right there with Kittle & Kelce. If this thread is any indication, he's way undervalued.

Is Rico Gathers no longer in the league?

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8 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Is Rico Gathers no longer in the league?

Haha.

Well, Waller is past the stash stage Rico was in. Many of those types don't work out for the obvious reason, but I've hit on enough to make it more than worthwhile. It doesn't take many Tyreeks to overcome some misses.

Just think of Rico as potential & Waller as production.

 

Edited by Football Jones
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BTW, at some point, I'm going to rekindle the stash debate. There's an art to hitting on stashes & how much of your roster should be devoted to them. 

It's a huge advantage when you hit on one because there's essentially nothing invested other than a roster spot. You didn't have to allocate a resource(s) to acquire them which is one of the keys to winning in FF, especially in dynasty leagues.

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Edward's is the only real threat. He could be really good. Ruggs doesn't fit well in this offense and will probably never be heavily targeted. 

Waller will be Carr's safety blanket again this year. There's no offseason camps guys. This year the rookie WR are going to be lost the first 2 months of the season. 

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1 hour ago, Football Jones said:

BTW, at some point, I'm going to rekindle the stash debate. There's an art to hitting on stashes & how much of your roster should be devoted to them. 

It's a huge advantage when you hit on one because there's essentially nothing invested other than a roster spot. You didn't have to allocate a resource(s) to acquire them which is one of the keys to winning in FF, especially in dynasty leagues.

I would be very interested in this discussion, I feel like my taxi squad spots are just wasted year after year. 

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15 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I would be very interested in this discussion, I feel like my taxi squad spots are just wasted year after year. 

I'm used to not having a TS so a little bit different dynamic.

My general philosophy is to favor upside over production with the bottom part of my roster, but there's a lot of factors to consider. I typically roster as many stashes as I can get away with (usually anywhere from 0 to 4). I may have to cut some during the season, but hopefully, I can acquire them again later if it makes sense. I loosely categorize players as stashes, legit prospects, & producers.

Definitely a topic I want to discuss further, myself. I plan on starting a thread sometime this summer.

 

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55 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

I'm used to not having a TS so a little bit different dynamic.

My general philosophy is to favor upside over production with the bottom part of my roster, but there's a lot of factors to consider. I typically roster as many stashes as I can get away with (usually anywhere from 0 to 4). I may have to cut some during the season, but hopefully, I can acquire them again later if it makes sense. I loosely categorize players as stashes, legit prospects, & producers.

Definitely a topic I want to discuss further, myself. I plan on starting a thread sometime this summer.

 

It's how I own Kittle and Chark right now. They were basically free. Grabbed Jarwin like that late last year and that's looking promising now too. 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

It's how I own Kittle and Chark right now. They were basically free. Grabbed Jarwin like that late last year and that's looking promising now too. 

 

Same, I've cleaned up this way over the years and it allows me to shift more resources into my starting lineup by consolidating previous depth when I hit on new stashes. Kelce, Kittle, Waller are all guys I've hit on this way and that's just at TE. The other, more difficult art is knowing when a stash should just be flipped to a bigger believer after a flash for a 3rd or something to free up that roster spot and keep the stashes churning, while gaining "free" value but giving up any further upside on that particular stash. It can be a difficult call, and only matters in leagues that are active and knowledgeable about young depth players anyways. I'm lucky to be in leagues that meet those criteria but not everyone is.

The other byproduct of having success this way over time is that you get a rep as someone who tries to shark young stashes and has a good nose for them. So you need to compensate and send offers differently when you're trying to get the right throw-ins on larger deals, disguising your true interest and settling "down" to your guys.

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I would enjoy a stash discussion both past history and certain things to look for. But there’s so many different league formats that stashes mean something different depending on the player pool that’s rostered. DJ Clark or similar would never be available for free in the leagues I play in typically. 

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Mariota is very good at using the TE. People can critique so much of his game and rightly so, but ya gotta admit you loved Delanie when Mariota was chucking it.
If he gets in, Waller could have an awesome week for DFS

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A little suprised with the new FBG article showing Waller as the number 1 TE to avoid.  Most of the comments alluded to the idea that he came out of no where to have the big numbers last year as if he had been a 10 year journeyman.  I'm not saying they're right to say his numbers could take a dip, but I don't get the impression he's a guy that will drop out of the top 10.

 

 

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to TE Darren Waller, LV

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