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Dynasty: Goff vs. Wentz vs. Lynch


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Unless I'm missing it, there isn't much discussion on the top three rookie QBs.  I'm really torn here as it doesn't feel like there's a clear-cut winner in fantasy football terms.  I realize Goff, then Wentz, then Lynch are how they're ranked by the FF community in ADP terms.  What is the logic driving those rankings?

Goff

Pros:  Top QB taken in NFL draft.  Instant starter.  Smart.  Accurate. 

Cons:  Jeff Fisher offense with Gurley as the centerpiece.  Weak WR corps.  Small hands, smells like cabbage.

 

Wentz

Pros:  Protypical size.  Mobile.  Accurate.  Good decision maker. 

Cons:  Needs to elevate progressions; checks down a lot.  May ride pine for the first year.  Very few small school QBs find NFL success. 

 

Lynch

Pros:  Nice offensive pieces around him.  Everything Elway touches turns to gold.  Athletic.  Will get yards with his feet.

Cons:  Not used to be under center (green from NFL perspective).  May ride pine for first year.  Scored only 18 on the Wonderlic.  Can be inaccurate.

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I think Lynch has bust written all over him.  3rd round talent and seems pretty aloof in terms of committment to the NFL.  I like Wentz more than Goff for the simple reason that he's got much better weapons, coaching, and no Todd Gurley.

 

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The big fantasy winner this year is probably Todd Gurley.

Going forward, the window in DEN might be too small for Lynch to simply be a quality game manager that relies on the D to win for that team. So he's going to have to develop a bit more.

Goff is probably in a better situation than the other two for the next couple of years. He'll get real time experience this year as that team relies on D and Gurley to win.  He'll be able to become acclimated to the speed of the game while being a minimal liability. They'll find an WR corp. for him over the next couple of years and he should be alright.

If Pederson and Co. can implement their plan and not lose their jobs due to ineffectiveness, I think Wentz is long term money.. He's in line to have a career path of BENCH WARMER than GAME MANAGER for a couple of years, then if he progresses....SUPERSTAR. Philly could be very good really quick. They have young WRs, a young D and some youth on the O-line.  However, If Pederson gets drummed out of Philly and Wentz is forced to play earlier than expected...who knows what will happen. I firmly believe that if Wentz fails, it will be due to his inability to adjust to the speed of the game. 

 

 

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I've had to make this decision a couple times and it's been close enough for me that I've actually flip-flopped depending on the day. I think you can scout RB/WR/TE pretty well just by reviewing highlights, stats, and 1-2 game cut-ups; but with QBs I think you really need to watch entire games to get a real sense of what they can do and I just haven't had the time/desire to do that. I've been trying to catch up, but I don't feel like I have a great handle on these two and what they can do.

 

All that said, here is what I have gathered about their positives/negatives by researching them and watching some of their game cut-ups.

 

Goff

+ pocket feel (senses the pass rush)

+ anticipation

+ footwork

+ age (much younger than Wentz)

- frame

- running ability

 

Wentz

+ frame

+ running ability

- anticipation

- pocket feel

- age

 

They both seem to have ample arm strength and accuracy. Their most significant differences as a passer seem down to the fact that Goff may be more natural at sensing the pass rush and anticipating open receivers, whereas Wentz is more of the "athlete playing QB" who is rawer in these respects. However, he throws a nice ball and has games where he definitely looks the part. I think part of why you can make some excuses for his rawness is because he hasn't played very much and has only gone against a low level of competition with (presumably) a low level of coaching. The idea is that once he gets into an NFL program, he has the talent to rise to the challenge.

 

The way I see it, Goff is a safer pick with a lower ceiling. Wentz is much more boom-or-bust. If you have a solid QB already and you're drafting for upside, I think Wentz may offer more because he's the better athlete and offers more potential to score with his arm AND legs. However, if you just need a decent starter and you can't afford to whiff completely then I think you take Goff. I worry about his ability to take a hit (he's really skinny), but purely as a passer he seems more developed than Wentz despite being much younger. With Wentz, you have to wonder why it took him so long to become a starter at a 1AA school and whether or not the things he needs to learn are really learnable. Historically, plus athletes who lacked innate passing instincts haven't been able to learn them very well (i.e. Boller, Locker, V Young). Is Wentz one of those guys or is he like Palmer with legs or Roethlisberger/Bortles? Neither outcome would surprise me, which is why I only recommend him when you can afford the bust risk. 

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19 minutes ago, EBF said:

Goff

+ pocket feel (senses the pass rush)

+ anticipation

+ footwork

+ age (much younger than Wentz)

- frame

- running ability

 
 

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/jared-goff-player-stats

Rushing yards

2013

  • -62  

2014

  • -44

2015

  • -9

If you look up the stats of all 1st round QBs drafted who had negative rushing yards over the past two decades you will find three guys and they all busted.  Not saying this is significant but I don't dismiss it either.  

Goff moves well 'in the pocket' but he lacks running ability.  

I love how Goff moves and slides and keeps his eyes focused and trained downfield.  I love his ball placement and accuracy more than the rest but the other two have rushing ability that Goff lacks.  That transfers into about 250 to 350 rushing yards and a TD per season that Goff won't ever get and he might post a negative return on his rushing stats.  

I still like Goff the best of the 1st round QBs but his fantasy upside takes a bit of a hit with his lack of rushing ability.

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3 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

I love how Goff moves and slides and keeps his eyes focused and trained downfield.  I love his ball placement and accuracy more than the rest but the other two have rushing ability that Goff lacks.  That transfers into about 250 to 350 rushing yards and a TD per season that Goff won't ever get and he might post a negative return on his rushing stats.  

I still like Goff the best of the 1st round QBs but his fantasy upside takes a bit of a hit with his lack of rushing ability.

 

When I watched Goff's game cuts, I thought he had more special plays than Wentz where he did Andrew Luck type things to naturally sense the pass rush and adjust his body position in the pocket. But like you said, he's not much of an athlete at all. Wentz's superior size and running ability give him an added degree of upside in leagues that are slanted towards rushing yards/TDs. If Goff is going to become an elite FF asset, it will need to be as a pure thrower like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Wentz seemingly has an easier path towards FF stardom since he can do some of that Cam Newton/Russell Wilson stuff.

 

I can definitely see why some evaluators prefer Wentz while others prefer Goff. Those who value athleticism will prefer Wentz. Those who value "mental talent" and experience will prefer Goff. Historically, I've generally believed that mental qualities are the most important thing in a QB, but Wentz isn't necessarily bad there. He just might not be as developed as Goff. That's why I'm receptive to the idea that he can potentially be better. Although he seems like the much riskier prospect, most seem to agree that he has a higher ceiling.

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I'm tentatively ranking them:

Goff

Lynch

Wentz

I don't see any massive holes in Goff, and him not having the upside of Wentz or Lynch as runners isn't enough for me to lower the best passer in the class.  I don't even think anyone is really trying to debate that.  When in doubt, go with the best passer.  It's still a passing league, and I don't think Wentz or Lynch will provide Cam/Russell skill as a runner.  I think he's the one least likely to bust.  He's the one I would trust to consistently make the passes you expect the good QB to make every time.  Which is the #1 thing I am looking for in a QB.  You can make the spectacular play?  Great.  Can you make the easy throws with consistency?  Splash plays are great, but the great QBs make the easy ones all the time.  Average QBs miss a lot more of those, and that is what kills drives.  I learned this as a long time Raiders fan.  My ranking of him over Lynch is based on QB skills, but from a situation standpoint, I would rank Goff 3rd.  I don't like the ownership, I don't like the head coach, and I don't like that they traded two drafts to get this kid.  The Rams drafted well in recent years, but they also had more picks than most.  Now, a lot of those players are looking to get paid, and the Rams are probably going to decrease the talent level around Goff over the next few years, not increase it.  

Wentz and Lynch are tied together to me, for an odd reason.  I think their outlook in the draft community, and by extension, the fantasy community, have both been shaped by narrative.  I hate the word 'narrative'.  It's a cliche the smug lean on in arguments.  But it fits here.  I think there are storylines with both players, that have NOTHING to do with their NFL outlook, and they are shaping the way people view them as prospects.  This is a little bit of a theory on my part, so take it for what it is, a theory:

The public perception-Draft Twitter-pounced on Lynch like a new toy, and everyone gushed early in the year.  He wasn't ranked with the top guys before the year, the draft guys scrambled to place him in the top 10 of their mocks, and so on.  Draft buzz!!!!  Then, towards the end of the year, he struggled against better teams.  He fell to earth.  And I tend to believe that Draft Twitter, when it corrected itself, swung too far the other way.  A little draft backlash from some people that frankly, might have been a little embarrassed.  They missed out on him, then they catch up, then it turns out that he was human.  Now, they've been fooled twice.  So they start picking him apart.  Not consciously.  But they do.  Now, Lynch had very good games this year, including a monster vs. Ole Miss, but the team ended the season 1-4, and he had a bad game vs. Auburn.  A bad game to end the season, it was only one game, it shouldn't mean any more than any other game in a player's evaluation, right?  But it does.  We can't help it.  As far as Draft Twitter was concerned, the only game Derek Carr played was vs. USC.  Some guy makes a knowing comment on Twitter like, ''Check Lynch vs. Auburn for ability to handle pressure, and you'll see what NFL evaluators are worried about....'', and it sounds reasonable, and a little 'insider', and suddenly everyone is spouting the same soundbites.  Plus, Lynch has a little showboat in him, he was enjoying everything a bit too much for some, I think.  He has that Musketeer mustache, and I can tell you I heard that brought up on ESPN and NFLN, so for some reason, that matters.  I've no idea why.  But it was always more fun for people to pick his game apart than Goff's or Wentz's.  Seemed that way to me anyway.  

But when I watch his games on Draft Breakdown, I don't see a guy that can't handle pressure.  I thought he had a good feel, he scrambled but looked to pass, he's athletic, and he has an NFL arm.  I like his situation in Denver the best of the three.  Denver has spent extremely well in free agency, and drafted well.  I expect them to focus less on free agency, now that Manning is gone, and they are in a very good salary cap place over the next few years.  I trust this front office to give him enough of a team to give Lynch the best shot as a fantasy QB.  

Wentz, on the other hand, felt a little forced upon everyone to me.  He missed time early in the year, had a nice couple games, and there was some nice buzz toward the end of the year.  And then:  Senior Bowl.  Mayock and Phil Savage blew this guy up.  Mayock has become a hype man, but a lot of people still view him as the impartial tape junkie that is a voice of reason compared to other, flashier draft guys.  But he's not the same guy he was a few years ago.  By the time Senior Bowl practices started, Wentz arriving on the field was like a coronation.  Especially because all the other QBs there were below average.  He was the corn-fed, 'aww shucks' kid, and people ate it up.  Heck, who isn't rooting for a QB from North Dakota State?  

But then you look at his numbers, and his game.  He played 7 games this year.  He threw for under 200 yards in FOUR of them.  Did you know that?  I don't know that.  He had 300 yards in ONE game.  I didn't know that.  Why didn't we know that?  Why hasn't anyone in the draft community pointed out that this guy had game manager numbers playing for the dang Harlem Globetrotters of the FCS?  How many QBs have we read about over the years that had their level of opposition questioned?  If you weren't in the top conferences, people are going to bring it up.  Hey, not a deal-breaker, but it has to be discussed:  Who did he face?  I've never seen a QB get a free pass on level of opposition like I have seen with Wentz.  

I watched the games vs. the toughest competition he faced, and I saw a guy that missed deep balls, a lot.  That was noticeable to an amateur like me.  Can deep ball accuracy be improved?  I am sure it can be, in small increments.  Then, I heard Greg Cosell talking about how he stops his feet.  What?  What does that mean? Then you go back and watch.  Gets to the top of his drop, and his legs stop, like they are in cement.  No bounce, no rhythm.  Now, that is not the end of the world.  Unorthodox QBs work all the time.  Rivers has the weirdest throwing motion.  Manning had those nervous feet.  But it is not what you want in a passer.  That kind of footwork would kill Bill Walsh, if he wasn't dead already.  

Wentz's situation is a bit of an unknown to me.  It's incomplete.  New coach, and a front office that has yet to be graded, IMO.  Is everything OK now that Chip is gone?  Well, maybe.  I don't have any idea what kind of coach Pederson will be.  I'm not sure about the front office.  They may have overpaid some of their own talent, and it's fair to question if they should have re-signed Bradford.  I didn't mind the move, but it's fair to question it.  At QB this year, in cash, the Eagles are spending:  18 mill for Sam, 7 mill for Chase, and 18 mill for Wentz.  That's a lot.    

 

I'm probably targeting Lynch more than Goff, I will take Goff if he falls to a decent spot, but more likely I will wait till Goff or Wentz goes, and go after Lynch.  

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

Geez.  Look at that post.  

massraider+almond latte+really good smoke=Bob MaGaw

:lmao: 

Was reading on mobile, scrolled up midway through like "I didn't THINK this was a MaGaw post, but..."

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The flipside of the Wentz discussion is that he managed to go #2 overall despite being a small school prospect. Even with the NFL's tendency to draft QBs very high, that's not easy to do. I don't see the guy as a sure thing by any means and it's somewhat alarming that Cleveland traded out instead of taking him (though it's Cleveland), but the league tends to be pretty good at identifying the right guys (the success rate of top 10 QBs is actually quite good). That gives me some comfort despite the risk with him.

 

It's a complicated debate. With the Rams, the franchise is moving and Fisher is pretty much in "win or get fired mode". He can't really afford to sit back and lose for 2-3 years with a project. So did they really think Goff is the 10 year choice or the 2 year choice? Probably the former, but in their situation you might expect them to lean towards the more polished guy, which is apparently Goff. That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be the best in 3-4 years.

 

In the end, I don't know that either guy is the total package. If you could combine their best traits then you'd have a complete QB, but Goff has frame/athleticism issues and Wentz has production/instincts issues. I tend to agree with massraider that passing skills should be the first filter when evaluating QBs. At the same time, how likely is it that Philly completely whiffed on its evaluation of Wentz? A lot of times when these "tools" guys from smaller schools have risen up the boards late in the process, they've turned out pretty well (I'm thinking of Bortles, Flacco, and Roethlisberger).

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I'll take the guy in the QB friendly O overall. Wentz by a little over Goff for me. Although Goff seems to be the more NFL ready guy, Wentz seems better long term. Lynch is just an arm to me. Not a fan of him.

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2 hours ago, massraider said:

But then you look at his numbers, and his game.  He played 7 games this year.  He threw for under 200 yards in FOUR of them.  Did you know that?  I don't know that.  He had 300 yards in ONE game.  I didn't know that.  Why didn't we know that?  Why hasn't anyone in the draft community pointed out that this guy had game manager numbers playing for the dang Harlem Globetrotters of the FCS?

The "only one 300 yard game" and overall lack of production worried me a bit at first when PHI drafted him. But after looking deeper, I am basically ignoring it, at least with regards to fantasy. The previous QB at NDSU Brock Jensen who while not a NFL prospect did lead the team to 3 straight titles and is in the CFL now after a brief stint in MIA and he also didn't have many 300 yard games at NDSU. His career best was 313 yards. When NDSU upset Kansas State he had 165 yards. Most of his games were under 200. So while NDSU was the class of FCS for half a decade, they did not do it by airing out the ball. 

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A) Goff fun fact - 56/1 red zone TD/INT ratio in 37 career starts since his 2013 true freshman campaign.

B) Football Outsiders 2016 QBASE - comps spit out for Goff vastly superior to Wentz (below article describes/explains the stats employed):

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016

1 - QBASE for Prospects with Wentz-like Profiles
Player Projected DYAR
Jimmy Garoppolo 560
Drew Stanton 414
Blake Bortles 373
Akili Smith 325
Carson Wentz 274
Joe Flacco 256
Andy Dalton 132
Paxton Lynch 106
Colin Kaepernick 58
Josh Freeman -17

2 - QBASE Top 10 Prospects Since 1996 (Goff cohort group)
Player Projected DYAR
Philip Rivers 1,969
Carson Palmer 1,934
Donovan McNabb 1,831
Peyton Manning 1,306
Marcus Mariota 1,302
Russell Wilson 1,246
Byron Leftwich 1,239
Ben Roethlisberger 1,227
Jared Goff 1,211
Aaron Rodgers 1,205

C) "The Dime"

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:13747122

* This post was written on Costco house brand Sumatran OR Coffee Bean Organic Papua New Guinea (auto-drip). :)  

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I rank them in the same order that they were drafted, with a gap between each of them.

I liked Goff the most before the draft - he's the only QB in this class who stuck out to me as a good NFL prospect:

On 4/23/2016 at 9:25 PM, ZWK said:

1. He had good (though not spectacular) stats, by my metrics.

2. Stats-focused websites like PFF and Football Outsiders like him.

3. I was impressed by his pocket presence in the games I watched - he seemed to do a good job of keeping his attention downfield & always being ready to throw, while also being aware of the pass rush and moving around in the pocket to buy time & space

4. The things that he's getting praised for, like progressing quickly through his reads and throwing with anticipation, are skills that strike me as particularly important for NFL QBs (moreso than the flashier things that many QBs get praised for)

5. He threw 58 mph at the combine, among the faster times on record, which countered what had been my biggest concern about him (arm strength)

Negatives: his stats are not spectacular (I have his 2015 season as the 47th best QB season since 2008). Some people have raised concerns about his accuracy, which is one of the most important attributes in a quarterback, and I noticed some issues with his ball placement on short throws in the games that I watched. He is on the thin side, and his hands are on the small side - I think that both of those measurements do matter somewhat for QBs.

Since then, the Rams chose him over the other QBs, the QB-needy Browns chose to trade down rather than draft one of the other QBs at #2, and Rams gave up a significantly larger haul for him than the Eagles did for Wentz. So Goff seems like the clear #1.

For Wentz vs. Lynch, I'm basically deferring to the experts (including draft order and folks like PFF) who have Wentz well ahead of Lynch. Partly that's because I'm not that high on either of them, and partly that's because I don't have all that much faith in my ability to evaluate QB prospects (especially from the FCS). Both are clearly behind Goff in large part because their college production wasn't great (and Football Outsiders agrees). That's especially true when you consider their weak competition. In Wentz's case, his passing efficiency numbers don't even stand out from recent NDSU quarterbacks Brock Jensen and Easton Stick.

In their favor, scouts did like Wentz & Lynch. They both had very good passing velocity at the combine (59 mph for Lynch and 57 mph for Wentz). And in Lynch's favor, he was a more accurate passer when pressured than Goff or Wentz.

None of the three of them is a good enough runner for that to significantly change the fantasy value vs. NFL value comparison, and if you're buying a QB prospect for the next decade I wouldn't worry too much about scheme or surrounding talent.

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12 hours ago, ZWK said:

I rank them in the same order that they were drafted, with a gap between each of them.

I liked Goff the most before the draft - he's the only QB in this class who stuck out to me as a good NFL prospect:

Since then, the Rams chose him over the other QBs, the QB-needy Browns chose to trade down rather than draft one of the other QBs at #2, and Rams gave up a significantly larger haul for him than the Eagles did for Wentz. So Goff seems like the clear #1.

For Wentz vs. Lynch, I'm basically deferring to the experts (including draft order and folks like PFF) who have Wentz well ahead of Lynch. Partly that's because I'm not that high on either of them, and partly that's because I don't have all that much faith in my ability to evaluate QB prospects (especially from the FCS). Both are clearly behind Goff in large part because their college production wasn't great (and Football Outsiders agrees). That's especially true when you consider their weak competition. In Wentz's case, his passing efficiency numbers don't even stand out from recent NDSU quarterbacks Brock Jensen and Easton Stick.

In their favor, scouts did like Wentz & Lynch. They both had very good passing velocity at the combine (59 mph for Lynch and 57 mph for Wentz). And in Lynch's favor, he was a more accurate passer when pressured than Goff or Wentz.

None of the three of them is a good enough runner for that to significantly change the fantasy value vs. NFL value comparison, and if you're buying a QB prospect for the next decade I wouldn't worry too much about scheme or surrounding talent.

Great post.

The Rams were moving up from 1.15 to 1.1 (highest in the common draft era for a QB - NE went from 1.16 and HOU from 1.17 for WR Irving Fryar and RB Earl Campbell, respectively), PHI from 1.8 to 1.2. Also, we need to include LB Alonso and CB Maxwell, who both changed hands with MIA in order for PHI to get from 1.13 to 1.8, as a kind of base camp or staging area before the final assault on 1.2. :) 

The Rams ostensibly gave up two firsts, seconds and thirds, BUT one of the firsts was to move from 1.15 to #1 overall. So that aside, they really gave up ONE first (2017), TWO seconds (both 2016) and two thirds (2016 & 2017), but got back a 2016 fourth and sixth from TEN, which is roughly a wash with the 2016 third, so call it ONE third (2017). LA could afford to do this for a few reasons:

1) They had the extra second (2016) from the Bradford trade.

2) They expect to have extra third AND fourth comp picks (2017) in the next draft, due to losing CB Janoris Jenkins (second most guaranteed money through 2017 after Revis) and FS McCleod (highest paid safety in this free agency cycle?).

Somewhat of a misnomer (not directed at ZWK, just a general observation for the thread) is that the Rams blew up a few drafts in a row. Not to belabor the point (but it bears on the kind of weapons Fisher and Snead can surround Goff with in a timely manner in upcoming seasons), they didn't. Due to the expected comp picks, though giving up a first and third in 2017 as well, they should have a second, third and two fourths in the next draft. Largely a single draft impact. In THIS draft, despite not having a selection for 109 picks after Goff, they still emerged with dueling twin TEs/WRs in Higbee (arguably the top pure receiving TE in the draft) and small school Hemingway (either fastest 40 and #2 3-Cone Drill or vice verce at his position), as well as slot WR Cooper (with Higbee should INSTANTLY enhance and upgrade the Rams receiving weapons and presence between the hashes - which incidentally, nicely aligns and dovetails with Goff's skill set) and Waldman favorite, small school outside WR, the "other" Mike Thomas. Also an interesting grab bag of priority free agent WRs in Marquez North (rare true freshman starting WR at Tennessee, 38-496 third in UT history behind only Kelley Washington and Stanley Morgan, caught a pass in his first 19 games, father played in the NFL, junior level national champ 110 m. hurdler - similar resume to RG3 and Gurley in that respect?), Duke Williams (highest recruited JUCO talent at Auburn since Cam Newton, though kicked off the team and admitted character red flags and off field question marks) and the Danny Amendola-like Nelson Spruce (Pac-12 career reception leader). If the receiving weapons aren't upgraded significantly in 2016 and beyond, it won't be for lack of trying by Fisher and Snead.                   

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I don't see how being weak with progressions is a knock on Wentz.   Phillip Rivers, Cam Newton and Joe Flacco are all QBs off the top of my head that routinely lock onto targets without going through progressions like they should.

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Quote

The Rams ostensibly gave up two firsts, seconds and thirds, BUT one of the firsts was to move from 1.15 to #1 overall. So that aside, they really gave up ONE first (2017), TWO seconds (both 2016) and two thirds (2016 & 2017), but got back a 2016 fourth and sixth from TEN, which is roughly a wash with the 2016 third, so call it ONE third (2017). LA could afford to do this for a few reasons:

1) They had the extra second (2016) from the Bradford trade.

2) They expect to have extra third AND fourth comp picks (2017) in the next draft, due to losing CB Janoris Jenkins (second most guaranteed money through 2017 after Revis) and FS McCleod (highest paid safety in this free agency cycle?).

3) They have an owner who can afford to make up for the pick with free agents.

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However one spins it,  the trade is a lot.  

They are getting comp picks? Well,  that's because they are letting good young talent leave.  

The Rams knew they had players with expiring contracts, did they re-sign any of them to team-friendly deals before the contacts ended? The only contract I can remember is the Mark Barron deal,  which seemed high. 

Now, no one likes the Jenkins deal,  but if the Rams had signed him last August, he wouldn't have gotten that deal.  

If Goff is a franchise QB,  he's going to outlast all these players anyway,  so in the long term, it would be worth it.  

The Rams cushioned the blow, by the comp picks and all,  but that just means that they don't enjoy the advantage of extra picks.  Having more picks might make it easier to lose them,  but it shouldn't.  They are ALL still valuable. 

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I'd rank them:

  1. Wentz
  2. Goff
  3. Hackenberg
  4. Cook
  5. Lynch

I think Hackenberg, if he sees the field this year, could beat all other rookie QBs throwing to Decker and Marshall.  It'll be interesting to watch pan out.  I think the Broncos just took Lynch because of his pirate facial hair.

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On 5/15/2016 at 2:05 PM, EBF said:

 

 

 

Those who value "mental talent" and experience will prefer Goff. Historically, I've generally believed that mental qualities are the most important thing in a QB, but Wentz isn't necessarily bad there. He just might not be as developed as Goff. That's why I'm receptive to the idea that he can potentially be better. Although he seems like the much riskier prospect, most seem to agree that he has a higher ceiling.

Im not sure what you mean by mental talent because every report I read is that Wentz is highly intelligent and he played in a very pro style offense. The one knack I have on Wentz is game experience. 

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Just now, Nagle2998 said:

Im not sure what you mean by mental talent because every report I read is that Wentz is highly intelligent and he played in a very pro style offense. The one knack I have on Wentz is game experience. 

Intelligence is not the same thing as poise, pocket sense, and passing instincts. Those are the intangibles of playing QB, and I think they're difficult to learn. Players either have them or they don't. No amount of coaching or hard work can save a guy like Tebow, Boller, or Locker if he simply doesn't have the processing speed, poise, or game sense to function when the bullets start flying. Those QBs didn't flop because they were unintelligent. They just didn't have "it".  

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1 hour ago, KellysHeroes said:

that's a little shocking

I thought so.  I picked Goff.  Actually traded Dion Lewis to get the pick when Goff slid.  Then another owner offered me Yeldon for Goff so I jumped on that.  So basically Dion for Yeldon.  

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How much does your opinion of Goff change if the Rams sign, say, Jeffery next year?  Without a 1st next year I think it's very possible they make a big signing at WR. 

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16 hours ago, massraider said:

However one spins it,  the trade is a lot.  

They are getting comp picks? Well,  that's because they are letting good young talent leave.  

The Rams knew they had players with expiring contracts, did they re-sign any of them to team-friendly deals before the contacts ended? The only contract I can remember is the Mark Barron deal,  which seemed high. 

Now, no one likes the Jenkins deal,  but if the Rams had signed him last August, he wouldn't have gotten that deal.  

If Goff is a franchise QB,  he's going to outlast all these players anyway,  so in the long term, it would be worth it.  

The Rams cushioned the blow, by the comp picks and all,  but that just means that they don't enjoy the advantage of extra picks.  Having more picks might make it easier to lose them,  but it shouldn't.  They are ALL still valuable. 

We agree it was a lot and it should be worth it if Goff is as good as advertised and fulfills his potential.

I added one main point to ZWKs outstanding post above.

As to whether LA paying more for Goff than PHI did for Wentz should lead us to infer from that LA likes Goff a lot more, A) LA was moving up from 15 to 1 (unprecedented move FOR A QB) and PHI from 8 to 2, so the difference in compensation may speak most of all to their different stations in the draft, and B) was it really THAT big a difference when you account for the fact that PHI also sent LB Alonso and CB Maxwell to MIA to get from 1.13 to 1.8 BEFORE the second and final move up.    

Also, addressed an additional general observation I had seen.

That the trade blew up multiple LA drafts. Not true, imo. Yes, they don't have a first in 2017. But due to the expected third and fourth round comp picks next year (Jenkins and McLeod), they will still have a second, third and two fourths to potentially either/both put additional weapons around Goff or/and shore up the defense as they see fit. The fact that with just two fourths and two sixths in 2016 they were able to, among other things, draft arguably the top receiving TE in the draft (Higbee), one of the best slot WRs (Cooper) and a small school scout favorite outside WR (the "other" Mike Thomas - led nation in Y/C average with 65+ receptions, around 19.6, with 14 TDs, albeit at a lower level of competition), bodes well for 2017. Of course, picks are picks, I wasn't implying it wouldn't have been better to have lots of picks than fewer picks (obviously), just that they don't blow up draft after draft after draft, like the proverbial biblical sins of the fathers visited upon their sons. Largely a one draft impact. That is all. And not to put too fine a point on it, but again, just to make clear, I get that it would be better to have more picks than not have more picks. But without expected extra 2017 third and fourth comp picks, it would be worse to not have a first AND third and only one fourth, than to have said third and extra fourth.  

As to Barron and Jenkins:

Lavonte David is the gold standard for active NFL WLBs. He has finished around the #2 to #5 range in solo tackles four years in a row since his rookie 2012 season (plus a handful of big plays some seasons - sacks, INTs and FFs). In the 2015 pre-season he just signed a well deserved five year, $50 million contract extension ($25 million guaranteed). Barron's contract is five years, $45 million ($20 million guaranteed). During the off-season, when the Rams cut 30ish top 10 paid DE Chris Long, as well as MLB James Laurinaitis (also TE Jared Cook), a KEY to the future defensive strategy was to move WLB Ogletree to MLB and SS Barron to WLB - where he already played a lot very successfully in the absence of the injured Ogletree last year. Barron had 66 solos in his last 11 games, also finishing with a sack and 3 FFs. That would prorate to near 100 solo tackles, exceeded only by SF 4 X First-team All-Pro ILB Navorro Bowman (not sure if most among active LBs, and that while missing a year due to the torn ACL) and JAX MLB Paul Posluszny. JAX WLB Telvin Smith is an ascendant player and emerging star already among the top WLBs in the game, and he had 99 solos, tied third (as did USC/SEA/OAK LB Malcolm Smith). If Barron plays like he did last year, with Quinn slowed by a back injury, Barron was the Rams second best defender after Donald, and imo has Pro Bowl potential. Agreed again, it does seem high, but wanted to furnish some context, if he plays like he is capable of, he should prove worth it, imo.

The thing about Jenkins, 2015 was a career season. You can maybe see how it would have been potentially problematic to pay him $9.5-$10 million per year or whatever his agent was asking for, BEFORE he had his career season (and it may give some pause that he waits until his contract year to have a career season, per the Haynesworth Syndrome). Easier to say in hindsight. Once it was more apparent he had broken out, I think he gave a deadline of Halloween to get a new deal done. The Rams probably did underestimate the market for his services, but so did everybody. He has the most TDs for a defender since 2012, but his Jekyll and Hyde resume also includes GIVING UP the third most TDs since 2012 (in fairness, ARI 5 X Pro Bowler and 3 X First-team All-Pro Patrick Peterson is second on the list). Burnt more often than a clumsy, inept arsonist! :) Not sure it is obvious OAK, for instance, would pay $10 million a year for mixed results like that? He has stayed clean, but entered the league as a character red flag and off field question mark, after being tossed off Florida for multiple collegiate wacky tobacky violations. There was a lot of talk before this season the Rams may not be able to retain BOTH Jenkins and current designated franchise player, CB Trumaine Johnson (taken in the second and third round of the 2012 draft). Here are their respective 2015 stats:

Jenkins - 15 G/GS, 56-8 (solos/assists), 3 INTs, 15 PD, 1 FF, Jenkins has sub-optimal size at 5'10", 200 lbs. 

Johnson - 14 G/13 GS, 58-13, 7 INTs, 17 PD, 1 FR & 1 TD, Johnson has exceptional size at 6'2", 210 lbs. (Johnson missed two games in 2015 and seven in 2014, Jenkins one for a team suspension as a rookie in 2012 I think, two in 2014 and one in 2015, credit for being more resilient).

So on a couple counts, if the choice was between Jenkins and Johnson, I prefer the latter. If the choice was between Jenkins and Barron (both cost about $10 million a year), no brainer to me, far prefer Barron. Not to mention, if E.J. Gaines returns to his brilliant 2015 rookie form, he may have been their steadiest, most reliable and consistent CB that season. He is returning from a Lis-franc mid-foot sprain, but is reportedly moving well. If healthy, they already had the replacement on the roster. Now, I don't KNOW they couldn't have retained Jenkins AND Johnson or Jenkins AND Barron. But I also don't know they could. They do have a lot of cap money freed up (and only signed a few modest free agent deals like former NYJ 1.16 DE/LB Coples and TEN CB Sensabaugh), but that is because much of that is presumptively earmarked for other looming free agents. Johnson. LA exercised 2017 fifth year options on BOTH Ogletree and WR Austin. 2016 fifth year option DT Brockers. SS McDonald. Donald in a few years will become one of the highest paid defensive players in football. Gurley the year after won't come cheap. Anyway, a third round comp seems like a good return on a second round pick to me. And until we find out what they get with it in 2017, hard for me to criticize how things unfolded.       

{Written on a Red Robin Salted Caramel Milk Shake - edited on Anchor Steam beer. :) }

* As to Goff vs. Wentz. The latter reportedly a genius on the board, supposedly significant separation between him and the other front line prospects. However, and EBF alluded to this, that isn't the same as putting what you know to use on the field in real time when the bullets start flying. On that score, NOW, I prefer Goff. MAYBE Wentz pulls even or surpasses him in the future (or Lynch, or some other QB from the class of '16), maybe not.

As to the future, I know many of you know this already, but just to make explicit, I think I saw ZWK state it first, highest floor (Goff) isn't necessarily mutually exclusive with highest ceiling. If he is more advanced and IMPROVES, he may never cede the difference, and in fact could possibly expand on it.

Any historians/statisticians in the thread? How many other collegiate QBs have a career red zone TD/INT ratio of 56/1 (or better), like Goff? 

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