However one spins it, the trade is a lot.
They are getting comp picks? Well, that's because they are letting good young talent leave.
The Rams knew they had players with expiring contracts, did they re-sign any of them to team-friendly deals before the contacts ended? The only contract I can remember is the Mark Barron deal, which seemed high.
Now, no one likes the Jenkins deal, but if the Rams had signed him last August, he wouldn't have gotten that deal.
If Goff is a franchise QB, he's going to outlast all these players anyway, so in the long term, it would be worth it.
The Rams cushioned the blow, by the comp picks and all, but that just means that they don't enjoy the advantage of extra picks. Having more picks might make it easier to lose them, but it shouldn't. They are ALL still valuable.
We agree it was a lot and it should be worth it if Goff is as good as advertised and fulfills his potential.
I added one main point to ZWKs outstanding post above.
As to whether LA paying more for Goff than PHI did for Wentz should lead us to infer from that LA likes Goff a lot more, A) LA was moving up from 15 to 1 (unprecedented move FOR A QB) and PHI from 8 to 2, so the difference in compensation may speak most of all to their different stations in the draft, and B) was it really THAT big a difference when you account for the fact that PHI also sent LB Alonso and CB Maxwell to MIA to get from 1.13 to 1.8 BEFORE the second and final move up.
Also, addressed an additional general observation I had seen.
That the trade blew up multiple LA drafts. Not true, imo. Yes, they don't have a first in 2017. But due to the expected third and fourth round comp picks next year (Jenkins and McLeod), they will still have a second, third and two fourths to potentially either/both put additional weapons around Goff or/and shore up the defense as they see fit. The fact that with just two fourths and two sixths in 2016 they were able to, among other things, draft arguably the top receiving TE in the draft (Higbee), one of the best slot WRs (Cooper) and a small school scout favorite outside WR (the "other" Mike Thomas - led nation in Y/C average with 65+ receptions, around 19.6, with 14 TDs, albeit at a lower level of competition), bodes well for 2017. Of course, picks are picks, I wasn't implying it wouldn't have been better to have lots of picks than fewer picks (obviously), just that they don't blow up draft after draft after draft, like the proverbial biblical sins of the fathers visited upon their sons. Largely a one draft impact. That is all. And not to put too fine a point on it, but again, just to make clear, I get that it would be better to have more picks than not have more picks. But without expected extra 2017 third and fourth comp picks, it would be worse to not have a first AND third and only one fourth, than to have said third and extra fourth.
As to Barron and Jenkins:
Lavonte David is the gold standard for active NFL WLBs. He has finished around the #2 to #5 range in solo tackles four years in a row since his rookie 2012 season (plus a handful of big plays some seasons - sacks, INTs and FFs). In the 2015 pre-season he just signed a well deserved five year, $50 million contract extension ($25 million guaranteed). Barron's contract is five years, $45 million ($20 million guaranteed). During the off-season, when the Rams cut 30ish top 10 paid DE Chris Long, as well as MLB James Laurinaitis (also TE Jared Cook), a KEY to the future defensive strategy was to move WLB Ogletree to MLB and SS Barron to WLB - where he already played a lot very successfully in the absence of the injured Ogletree last year. Barron had 66 solos in his last 11 games, also finishing with a sack and 3 FFs. That would prorate to near 100 solo tackles, exceeded only by SF 4 X First-team All-Pro ILB Navorro Bowman (not sure if most among active LBs, and that while missing a year due to the torn ACL) and JAX MLB Paul Posluszny. JAX WLB Telvin Smith is an ascendant player and emerging star already among the top WLBs in the game, and he had 99 solos, tied third (as did USC/SEA/OAK LB Malcolm Smith). If Barron plays like he did last year, with Quinn slowed by a back injury, Barron was the Rams second best defender after Donald, and imo has Pro Bowl potential. Agreed again, it does seem high, but wanted to furnish some context, if he plays like he is capable of, he should prove worth it, imo.
The thing about Jenkins, 2015 was a career season. You can maybe see how it would have been potentially problematic to pay him $9.5-$10 million per year or whatever his agent was asking for, BEFORE he had his career season (and it may give some pause that he waits until his contract year to have a career season, per the Haynesworth Syndrome). Easier to say in hindsight. Once it was more apparent he had broken out, I think he gave a deadline of Halloween to get a new deal done. The Rams probably did underestimate the market for his services, but so did everybody. He has the most TDs for a defender since 2012, but his Jekyll and Hyde resume also includes GIVING UP the third most TDs since 2012 (in fairness, ARI 5 X Pro Bowler and 3 X First-team All-Pro Patrick Peterson is second on the list). Burnt more often than a clumsy, inept arsonist!
Not sure it is obvious OAK, for instance, would pay $10 million a year for mixed results like that? He has stayed clean, but entered the league as a character red flag and off field question mark, after being tossed off Florida for multiple collegiate wacky tobacky violations. There was a lot of talk before this season the Rams may not be able to retain BOTH Jenkins and current designated franchise player, CB Trumaine Johnson (taken in the second and third round of the 2012 draft). Here are their respective 2015 stats:
Jenkins - 15 G/GS, 56-8 (solos/assists), 3 INTs, 15 PD, 1 FF, Jenkins has sub-optimal size at 5'10", 200 lbs.
Johnson - 14 G/13 GS, 58-13, 7 INTs, 17 PD, 1 FR & 1 TD, Johnson has exceptional size at 6'2", 210 lbs. (Johnson missed two games in 2015 and seven in 2014, Jenkins one for a team suspension as a rookie in 2012 I think, two in 2014 and one in 2015, credit for being more resilient).
So on a couple counts, if the choice was between Jenkins and Johnson, I prefer the latter. If the choice was between Jenkins and Barron (both cost about $10 million a year), no brainer to me, far prefer Barron. Not to mention, if E.J. Gaines returns to his brilliant 2015 rookie form, he may have been their steadiest, most reliable and consistent CB that season. He is returning from a Lis-franc mid-foot sprain, but is reportedly moving well. If healthy, they already had the replacement on the roster. Now, I don't KNOW they couldn't have retained Jenkins AND Johnson or Jenkins AND Barron. But I also don't know they could. They do have a lot of cap money freed up (and only signed a few modest free agent deals like former NYJ 1.16 DE/LB Coples and TEN CB Sensabaugh), but that is because much of that is presumptively earmarked for other looming free agents. Johnson. LA exercised 2017 fifth year options on BOTH Ogletree and WR Austin. 2016 fifth year option DT Brockers. SS McDonald. Donald in a few years will become one of the highest paid defensive players in football. Gurley the year after won't come cheap. Anyway, a third round comp seems like a good return on a second round pick to me. And until we find out what they get with it in 2017, hard for me to criticize how things unfolded.
{Written on a Red Robin Salted Caramel Milk Shake - edited on Anchor Steam beer.
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* As to Goff vs. Wentz. The latter reportedly a genius on the board, supposedly significant separation between him and the other front line prospects. However, and EBF alluded to this, that isn't the same as putting what you know to use on the field in real time when the bullets start flying. On that score, NOW, I prefer Goff. MAYBE Wentz pulls even or surpasses him in the future (or Lynch, or some other QB from the class of '16), maybe not.
As to the future, I know many of you know this already, but just to make explicit, I think I saw ZWK state it first, highest floor (Goff) isn't necessarily mutually exclusive with highest ceiling. If he is more advanced and IMPROVES, he may never cede the difference, and in fact could possibly expand on it.
Any historians/statisticians in the thread? How many other collegiate QBs have a career red zone TD/INT ratio of 56/1 (or better), like Goff?
