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WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Lean, smaller school and I specifically read somewhere teams were concerned if he loved the game enough.
Steelers reportedly had a first round grade on him. If you don't remember the Steelers had no picks last year from pick 10 when they took Devin Bush to 66 when they took Diontae so it's not like they kept passing on him. And the Diontae selection was with one of the picks they got for AB, which is nuts how much that 6th round pick of AB might end up giving them when it's all said and done.
After they picked him the Steelers WR coach at the time, the late Darryl Drake, said Bruce Arians called him pissed off because Tampa was about to take him. Speaking of Drake he's the guy that sold me on him around this time last year with some of his post draft comments.
Devil_Dog
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I wish I had your optimism, I have a chance to keep him as a 7th round keeper (vs DJ Moore in the 6th or AJ Green in the 9th, standard scoring), and I feel like he is the least likely for me to keep out of those 3. I don't know how much Roethlisburger has left in the tank, and IMO good receivers should was able to produce something, even with terrible QBs, while Juju could not. He averaged 46 yards/game played, DJ Moore averaged 78 yards/game played with similar below replacement level backups. If anything Pittsburgh had slightly better QB play than Carolina last year with the backups.
jm192
Footballguy
I get it, but I think there's a limit to how bad your QB play can be and still produce. He dealt with injuries a lot of the season, despite only missing 4 games.
I think Ben IS the question. If he's got another solid season in him, Juju should be a star.
I think you are vastly overestimating how good the CAR backup QBs were. Kyle Allen and Mason Rudolph look pretty comparable on paper as the primary QBs for the year, both 62% completion, Allen with more interceptions per game and slightly less TD per game compared to Rudolph.
Going by passer rating from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm:
PIT:
- Roethlisberger - 66.0 (2 games)
- Mason Rudolph - 82.0 (8 games)
- Devlin Hodges - 71.4 (6 games)
- Cam Newton - 71.0 (2 games)
- Kyle Allen - 80.0 (12 games)
- Will Grier - 33.2 (2 games)
- PIT - 76.025
- CAR - 73.025
barackdhouse
Footballguy
How much better were the Panther's RBs compared to the Steelers? Rhetorical question, but although you may have a point about the QB play, I *have* to give an edge to the Panthers offense based on how much of a threat CMC is/was. I like DJ Moore a lot and even though I strongly prefer Juju, I certainly don't think it's crazy to prefer Moore, especially now that Bridgewater is in town. And the Panthers running game still has a distinct edge over the Steelers, although I expect Conner and Ben to make big strides this year and for Juju to blow his projections out of the water.
But I have to think that amongst teams that have backup QBs (and backups for a reason) playing, the one that gets to handoff and throw to CMC is going to be getting better stats. I'll take that team's #1WR over the other almost every time. Now that there are real starters at QB again, though, gimme Juju. But it's fairly close.
I am not saying that Juju will be bad next year, I am just not sure if I want to gamble with it again, since the main knock before the 2019 season was he never experienced WR1 coverage, and he did not really make the most of it when he did, even with bad QB play and injuries. Maybe I am just gun shy, in my big money league I figured Antonio Brown and Juju would be a good pair of starting WR and then AJ Green when he comes back could be a solid flex or WR2, did not quite work out still got 3rd.
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Milkman
Footballguy
He's in line for a big year but is he going to be in Pittsburgh after this year? It really could go either way. Big Ben loves him but he showed last years he's not a #1. So Diontae could assume that role and then JuJu could be an elite #2 again. Where he thrives........the question is does Pittsburgh want to pay up for that after this year. My guess is no and another team will give him big bucks.
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Courtland Sutton had the corpse of Joe Flacco and UDFA Brandon Allen for most of the year. The result? Fantasy WR2 and breakout year.
Kenny Golladay had UDFAs Jeff Driskel and David Blough for half the year? The result? Dipped from the WR6 overall he was with Stafford but still a playable WR2
Allen Robinson has put up two WR1 seasons with Bortles and Trashbinsky.
DJ Moore was a WR2/borderline WR1 with Kyle Allen and Will Grier.
Yet Juju can't finish about WR61 on PPG in half PPR because of bad QB play? He can't beat out Taylor Gabriel and Chris Conley--or even a 3rd round rookie on his own team who didn't start until week 4.
Not a WR1. Just not as good as he has been hyped up to be since his freshman year at USC, and the Steelers--seeing as they plan on letting him walk--know this.
He's gonna be overtaken as the WR1 on Pittsburgh next year and then go to some team desperate enough for a big name WR that they make the mistake of paying him like he is a WR1 when he simply is not.
Kenny Golladay had UDFAs Jeff Driskel and David Blough for half the year? The result? Dipped from the WR6 overall he was with Stafford but still a playable WR2
Allen Robinson has put up two WR1 seasons with Bortles and Trashbinsky.
DJ Moore was a WR2/borderline WR1 with Kyle Allen and Will Grier.
Yet Juju can't finish about WR61 on PPG in half PPR because of bad QB play? He can't beat out Taylor Gabriel and Chris Conley--or even a 3rd round rookie on his own team who didn't start until week 4.
Not a WR1. Just not as good as he has been hyped up to be since his freshman year at USC, and the Steelers--seeing as they plan on letting him walk--know this.
He's gonna be overtaken as the WR1 on Pittsburgh next year and then go to some team desperate enough for a big name WR that they make the mistake of paying him like he is a WR1 when he simply is not.
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Encumbrance
Footballguy
If yokels on a message board know it, the NFL brass knows it. I doubt he gets WR1 money.
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The Frankman
Footballguy
The big reason for Juju's fall is people propped him up as bigger than he really was after he thrived living as the #2 in AB's shadow. You can see comments in this thread where people thought he wasn't too far away from Antonio Brown. After AB left it seemed like too much too fast; Juju's production nosedived as the marked man. He just couldn't beat Top CB coverage and started playing a lot more slot, then he couldn't seem to find any success with bad QB play unlike other WRs (Nuk and DJ Moore being excellent recent examples). Even Diontae Johnson seemed to have better moments than Smith-Schuster; didn't help that Juju was battling injuries also.
I'm seeing Juju go late 5th/early 6th round in non-PPR 14 team leagues... ahead of DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton. I expect his ADP to rise but honestly, that ADP of 70-78 feels right. He really shouldn't be a #1 WR but he'd make a pretty good WR2 with Roffles back at QB.
I'm seeing Juju go late 5th/early 6th round in non-PPR 14 team leagues... ahead of DJ Moore and Courtland Sutton. I expect his ADP to rise but honestly, that ADP of 70-78 feels right. He really shouldn't be a #1 WR but he'd make a pretty good WR2 with Roffles back at QB.
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Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
After AB left, Juju has played one game with an NFL calibre QB, and in that game, vs the best defense in the league, he caught 6 passes for 78 yards. Hard to say it was too much too soon really.
I think we can cut the guy a bit more slack than we are here. There's certainly some justifiable question marks, but the mountain grew ever higher for Juju last season. There's bad QB play and then there's a higher level of coverage, and then there's the fact they had a poor run game, and then the fact he got injured.
I'm gambling on the 70-78 every day of the week. Even the 4th round would feel like value in my opinion.
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Grid71
Footballguy
Excellent points and agree. JuJu clearly didn’t produce in that stinkfest of an offense in 2019. JuJu is partly to blame despite his injuries. Even with a healthy Ben in 2020, JuJu may not be the #1 fantasy producer on his own team.
On the other side of the coin, Pittsburgh offense was Uber simple to game plan against after Ben was lost. Double JuJu stop the run and let Pit try to beat us with backup QB dinking to his RB and trying to connect with Washington or the rookie Dionte. After JuJu got hurt, there wasn’t much of a threat anywhere. The poor passer ratings of Rudolf and Duck were inflated by high completion % passes to RB. Swap out an INJURED ANYONE on your list with JuJu and tell me with sincerity that they would have been productive in that offense. I caution you to not undervalue how good JuJu will be in 2020. Even with all the uncertainty, he is more likely to produce numbers closer to 2018 production than 2019 working mostly from the slot.
I certainly think Juju will be better this year than last year with Ben back, but I still think he is priced like a sure thing to bounce back--including many taking him ahead of the WRs I listed above who have proven themselves as #1s and with bad QB play. I agree that the Steelers' offense was super timid but his separation numbers don't indicate someone getting open and just missed by his QB:
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation
(you can sort by clicking SEP third column from the left)
The injury thing is certainly something to consider and we will never truly know how much it held him back last year, but again he seems to be getting the benefit of the doubt unlike say OBJ who everyone seems low on but was also hurt with a bad situation (not as bad as Juju's admittedly).
I would be a lot more interested in investing if he wasn't already priced like he is going to definitely bounce back.
This is coming from someone who saw him as a guy on the precipice of top 3 WR territory before last season. Even offered a choice of Zeke or MT for a deal built around Juju (thankfully declined)
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I don't know if this will be true in a few months. As Johnson becomes the trendy breakout, I think JuJu's ADP is going to drop
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Really? Fantasy Pros ADP has him as WR21 right now. FF Calculator has him as pick 71 between Mostert and Hunter Henry. Give me Juju all day at those prices.
I was speaking more from a dynasty perspective. At pick 71 yes--that is a good price without a doubt
So true. If Ju Ju is healthy my money is on him being Pitt 's top WR this year. And if Big Ben is healthy there's no way that will be a WR21 finish.
Looks like Vegas thinks he will bounce back. Over/under is about 1100 yards for him.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I’m sure by late August he’ll be going much much earlier in redraft. He’s 23 and already has 211 receptions, 2,800 yards and 17 TDs. Denzel Mims will turn 23 in October. Deebo is 24. His age vs production is among the best ever.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If you look at his whole profile and history, I get it. Obviously a much bigger cost than redraft though.
I get that people always like the shiny new toy, but the Johnson love is pretty crazy. I didn't watch enough Pittsburgh games to have a strong feeling about either one, but just from a numbers stand point it's easy to see why people still have faith in Ju Ju. He has already accomplished things in the league that Johnson only hopes he can do. If Johnson can still improve, why not Ju Ju? Ju Ju is younger than Johnson after all.
Milkman
Footballguy
Not to mention: A big reason for people falling in love with "the new toy" is because the old toy couldn't beat out Taylor Gabriel and Chris Conley his first go as the number 1 WR
Milkman
Footballguy
JuJu can't play outside. Diontae as a rookie destroyed everybody inside and out. He's practically un-guardable .
I think you're exaggerating Diontae's rookie performance a bit, but the fact is he was able to flash with QBs that Juju couldn't do anything with. Youth is still on Juju's side long term in dynasty but most sources I see have him around WR10 and above Sutton, Robinson, AJ Brown and Golladay and equal to or only slightly below Moore. I already talked about most of these players' performance through bad QB situations reasons for being above Juju, but AJ Brown literally--in his first six games in the NFL--with trash bag Mariota at QB--performed similarly to (if not outperformed) Juju as a 3rd year player. The dynasty community IMO has not corrected itself for how quickly they anointed Juju
That ranking is asinine to me. At that point Diontae is simply a far superior value even if he doesn't fully yank the WR1 role
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So you guys think that Johnson outperforms Ju Ju this year even if Big Ben is healthy?
I think it's within the range of both players' outcomes. Don't think that--if Juju somehow fell to the 8th-9th round around Diontae's ADP--I would take Johnson over him, but I think it's a very real possibility that Johnson outperforms him. For that reason I would way rather have Johnson at his ADP and be able to get DK/Sutton/AJB/ARob/Golladay in the mid to late 3rd than Juju at his ADP. For dynasty purposes I would rather pay a 2nd round pick to get Diontae than the high first and maybe even more needed to get last year's WR61. That much I will say
And Ben being healthy should be something that helps both of them right? It means more passing volume and targets, higher quality targets and more scoring opportunities for both players.
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I was wondering if the Johnson hype was going to be out of control and statements like this make me think his adp is going to climb too high.
I think the biggest advantage to JuJu is that they can go back to 3 wr sets with Ben and he can go back to the slot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If you knew you were drafting the 2018 JuJu, where would you take him PPR?
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
111-1426-7 = 295.6. If I KNEW I was getting that, would take him 2nd after Thomas
Per fantasypros.com those stats wold place him 3rd in their 2020 PPR projections
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/projections/wr.php?week=draft&scoring=PPR&week=draft
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Took him as my WR1 after a brutal run (and Miles Sanders unexpectedly fell to me at 2.10) so I’m really hoping his 2019 breakout comes in 2020.
I’ve liked what I’ve read about his off-season, working with a personal trainer - he seems like his head is in it.
Comes down to Roethlisberger’s arm health & weather Dionte can become a legitimate threat to draw a little coverage, IMO.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Health matters too. I agree, which adds to my optimism.Not trying to be snarky, but I think he proved that last year didn't he?
”proved” is a long-term thing. He flashed last year. I’d like to see it all come together for this offense - I think expectations were very high last season & it all fell apart.
And Dionte has battled some injuries, which is also a concern.
But he did look good - no snark taken.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
If he does it with Ben and a healthy Conner, it is possible that Juju goes stratospheric and Dointae feasts, too.Not trying to be snarky, but I think he proved that last year didn't he?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s the hope. Also I kinda kick myself as I could have taken Dionte at a fair value but went another direction (LB1) because I already had Juju & a couple good receivers. I’ve been high on DJ & wanted him.
