2016 Subscriber Contest - live scoring in first post (1 Viewer)

KingPrawn said:

Just finished my perfect entry. Now what will I do the rest of August?

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Rhythmdoctor said:

Really love the team I've settled on after 4 hours of tweaks between last night and tonight.  I hope I keep this one.... but I won't.

QB - Tony Romo - DAL/7 - $13
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $12
QB - Josh McCown - CLE/13 - $5
RB - Doug Martin - TB/6 - $25
RB - Thomas Rawls - SEA/5 - $22
RB - Rashad Jennings - NYG/8 - $12
RB - Wendell Smallwood - PHI/4 - $6
RB - Josh Ferguson - IND/10 - $6
RB - DeAndre Washington - OAK/10 - $6
WR - Amari Cooper - OAK/10 - $21
WR - Demaryius Thomas - DEN/11 - $21
WR - Michael Floyd - ARI/9 - $15
WR - DeSean Jackson - WAS/9 - $14
WR - Markus Wheaton - PIT/8 - $13
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/8 - $11
WR - Ted Ginn - CAR/7 - $6
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/4 - $18
TE - Martellus Bennett - NE/9 - $9
TE - Will Tye - NYG/8 - $7
PK - Andrew Franks - MIA/8 - $2
PK - Nick Folk - NYJ/11 - $2
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/13 - $2
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/5 - $2

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MattFancy said:

Here's my first pass:

QB - Eli Manning - NYG/8 - $16 - could be good value this year
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/6 - $14 - my crab legs blind spot prohibits this pick
RB - David Johnson - ARI/9 - $30 - beware reversion
RB - Duke Johnson - CLE/13 - $18 - not bad
RB - Arian Foster - MIA/8 - $12 - is he done?
RB - Isaiah Crowell - CLE/13 - $10 - $28 bucks to buy BOTH CLE backs?!?!  take Crowell only.
RB - Chris Thompson - WAS/9 - $7 - could be very good value this year
RB - Chris Johnson - ARI/9 - $4 - he still plays?
WR - A.J. Green - CIN/9 - $30 - 250 targets
WR - Demaryius Thomas - DEN/11 - $21 - was he good before Peyton?  I forget....
WR - Larry Fitzgerald - ARI/9 - $18 - trio of mouths to feed and Carson's a year older
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/8 - $11 - probably a good pick
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/5 - $9 - removed from my early iterations....to many mouths to feed?  shepard has the better floor.
WR - Devin Funchess - CAR/7 - $6 - or ginn?  or KB and GO take all the TDs?
TE - Gary Barnidge - CLE/13 - $12 - prior, gordon, coleman, duke, probably valued ok but other screaming values at TE
TE - Ladarius Green - PIT/8 - $12 - it could be a tumor
TE - Clive Walford - OAK/10 - $6 - ummm, yeah.  Jack Del Rio.
PK - Connor Barth - NO/5 - $3 - kai forbath.
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/9 - $3 jag
TD - Washington Redskins - WAS/9 - $4 jagog
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB/6 - $4 jagog

Week 9 looks like it could kill me, will probably be back at the drawing board multiple times

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Rhythmdoctor said:

Really love the team I've settled on after 4 hours of tweaks between last night and tonight.  I hope I keep this one.... but I won't.

QB - Tony Romo - DAL/7 - $13 - brittle upper body.
QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $12 - I think he's fine.  Pundits predict offense reversion.
QB - Josh McCown - CLE/13 - $5 - wrong CLE qb.
RB - Doug Martin - TB/6 - $25 - fine.
RB - Thomas Rawls - SEA/5 - $22 - fine.  i think.  pete carroll might outthink himself.  again.
RB - Rashad Jennings - NYG/8 - $12 - or vereen?  or the rookie?  good second half 2015.
RB - Wendell Smallwood - PHI/4 - $6 - avoid eagles until the dust settles.  currently RB4?
RB - Josh Ferguson - IND/10 - $6 - like the upside.
RB - DeAndre Washington - OAK/10 - $6 - meh.
WR - Amari Cooper - OAK/10 - $21 - clear WR1.
WR - Demaryius Thomas - DEN/11 - $21 - $21 with a pitiful QB and a reasonable WR2?  nah.
WR - Michael Floyd - ARI/9 - $15 - trio of mouths to feed, and Carson is a year older.
WR - DeSean Jackson - WAS/9 - $14 - probably has another year in him.
WR - Markus Wheaton - PIT/8 - $13 - fail.  speaking from experience.
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/8 - $11 - should be good.
WR - Ted Ginn - CAR/7 - $6 - or funchess?  or KB and GO grab all the TDs?
TE - Zach Ertz - PHI/4 - $18 - see eagles prohibition above.
TE - Martellus Bennett - NE/9 - $9 - yup.
TE - Will Tye - NYG/8 - $7 - fell out of love with him.  feel like he's jag.
PK - Andrew Franks - MIA/8 - $2  - you're literally leaving money on the table not getting at least 1 $5 PK and DEF.
PK - Nick Folk - NYJ/11 - $2
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/13 - $2
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO/5 - $2

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fightingillini said:

This contest is hard, it's clear that the later bye players are discounted and all Packers (who have a week 4 bye) carry a clear premium.

Seems like QB pricing is higher.  I had to go back to my gambling on 2 mid priced QBs.

My first pass is.....

QB - Carson Palmer - ARI/9 - $17 - an old man and crab legs.  I may never win this thing but I'll never not have 3QBs again.
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/6 - $14
RB - Lamar Miller - HOU/9 - $28 - my pick for bust of the year.
RB - Duke Johnson - CLE/13 - $18 - crowell is better value.
RB - Arian Foster - MIA/8 - $12 - is he done?
RB - Tevin Coleman - ATL/11 - $9 - good upside.
RB - Cameron Artis-Payne - CAR/7 - $4 - Cam is RB1.  CAP is RB4.
WR - Odell Beckham Jr - NYG/8 - $33 - my favorite of the $30 and up crowd.
WR - Brandin Cooks - NO/5 - $22 - burned by him last year.
WR - Eric Decker - NYJ/11 - $17 - good pick.
WR - Cole Beasley - DAL/7 - $5 - ditto
WR - Kenny Stills - MIA/8 - $4 - ditto
WR - Dontrelle Inman - SD/11 - $2 - throw away.
TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/7 - $21 - lower targets and TDs.
TE - Eric Ebron - DET/10 - $10 - avoid all eagles.
TE - Zach Miller - CHI/9 - $8 - I wonder if the injury concerns are overblown.  may be great value.
TE - Virgil Green - DEN/11 - $4 - 3 TDs, yippee!
PK - Mike Nugent - CIN/9 - $4
PK - Josh Lambo - SD/11 - $3
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/13 - $2
TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/11 - $8
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/9 - $5

I have it where I don't have a huge amount of value on bye the same week.  I think I have no more than $55 of value off any week.  But this will be tough in later weeks, since most of my byes are weeks 8 and on.

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Rhythmdoctor said:

Funny, most of the 10 I changed are the ones you didn't like.  Here's my new team:

QB - Andy Dalton - 12QB - Tyrod Taylor - 11QB - EJ Manuel - 3RB - Carlos Hyde - 20RB - Jeremy Hill - 15RB - Ameer Abdullah - 13RB - Rashad Jennings - 12RB - Derrick Henry - 7RB - James White - 5RB - Christine Michael - 4WR - Keenan Allen - 23WR - Amari Cooper - 21WR - Michael Floyd - 15WR - Markus Wheaton - 13WR - Corey Coleman - 12WR - Sterling Shepard - 11WR - Ted Ginn - 6WR - Will Fuller - 6WR - Mike Wallace - 5TE - Gary Barnidge - 12TE - Martellus Bennett - 9TE - Vance McDonald - 6PK - Andrew Franks - 2PK - Nick Folk - 2TD - Cleveland Browns - 2TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

Total value: 249

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

  On 8/5/2016 at 1:54 PM, fightingillini said:
This contest is hard, it's clear that the later bye players are discounted and all Packers (who have a week 4 bye) carry a clear premium.

Seems like QB pricing is higher.  I had to go back to my gambling on 2 mid priced QBs.

My first pass is.....

QB - Carson Palmer - ARI/9 - $17 - an old man and crab legs.  I may never win this thing but I'll never not have 3QBs again.
QB - Jameis Winston - TB/6 - $14
RB - Lamar Miller - HOU/9 - $28 - my pick for bust of the year.
RB - Duke Johnson - CLE/13 - $18 - crowell is better value.
RB - Arian Foster - MIA/8 - $12 - is he done?
RB - Tevin Coleman - ATL/11 - $9 - good upside.
RB - Cameron Artis-Payne - CAR/7 - $4 - Cam is RB1.  CAP is RB4.
WR - Odell Beckham Jr - NYG/8 - $33 - my favorite of the $30 and up crowd.
WR - Brandin Cooks - NO/5 - $22 - burned by him last year.
WR - Eric Decker - NYJ/11 - $17 - good pick.
WR - Cole Beasley - DAL/7 - $5 - ditto
WR - Kenny Stills - MIA/8 - $4 - ditto
WR - Dontrelle Inman - SD/11 - $2 - throw away.
TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/7 - $21 - lower targets and TDs.
TE - Eric Ebron - DET/10 - $10 - avoid all eagles.
TE - Zach Miller - CHI/9 - $8 - I wonder if the injury concerns are overblown.  may be great value.
TE - Virgil Green - DEN/11 - $4 - 3 TDs, yippee!
PK - Mike Nugent - CIN/9 - $4
PK - Josh Lambo - SD/11 - $3
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN/13 - $2
TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/11 - $8
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/9 - $5

I have it where I don't have a huge amount of value on bye the same week.  I think I have no more than $55 of value off any week.  But this will be tough in later weeks, since most of my byes are weeks 8 and on.

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

like this one better.  get a real QB3 instead of handcuffing tyrod.  RBIII or Cutler. 

I've had all those RBs in various iterations...currently negative on hyde and abdullah.

as a former owner, wheaton just isn't any good.  coates, rogers, heywood-bay are $4-$6 options.  not much of a coleman, shepard, fuller fan but they may be fine.

really on the fence on barnidge....currently OFF due to space / better value limitations.  have toyed with mcdonald too...there are a half dozen cheap TEs worth considering.

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houston said:

Who is Eric Rogers on Steelers?

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David Dodds said:

so what's the verdict on the pricing?  Pretty tough?

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

Finish my roster for me....

QB2 and QB3, Budget $21

1. Taylor and Flacco

2. Rivers and RG III

3. Dalton and Cutler

4. Tannehill and Ostweiller

RB4, Budget $6

Ferguson or Booker

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BassNBrew said:

meh...This is the first yearn quite a while where I've actually wanted a 31 or 32 player limit.  This would be a much stronger contest if you released it Monday after pre-season week 3.  That said, a tough contest becomes a lottery, a flawed contest can be exploited which adds some skill, so I just as soon you released it May 1.

What hasn't changed is that it's a boatload of fun and a great concept.

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cheese said:

Tight end is a mess

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Jayrod said:

QB - 3 for $32

RB - 7 for $77

WR - 6 for $81

TE - 5 for $44

PK - 3 for $7

TD - 3 for $9

27 players...most I've had in a long time.  Found a lot of cheaper players I liked...especially at RB & TE.  This has been a fun one from strategy standpoint.

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

like this one better.  get a real QB3 instead of handcuffing tyrod.  RBIII or Cutler. 

I've had all those RBs in various iterations...currently negative on hyde and abdullah.

as a former owner, wheaton just isn't any good.  coates, rogers, heywood-bay are $4-$6 options.  not much of a coleman, shepard, fuller fan but they may be fine.

really on the fence on barnidge....currently OFF due to space / better value limitations.  have toyed with mcdonald too...there are a half dozen cheap TEs worth considering.

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

really really difficult to not have Arian Foster on my roster....he looked so much better than Ajayjayjaihialai.

Riddick, Ivory, Jennings, Powell, Blount and Crowell are probably all "smarter" choices but....

talk me down.

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msudaisy26 said:

Is there a link to last year's contest?

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Hybrid said:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2015/week-16.php

I ended up clocking in at 41st last year. 

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msudaisy26 said:

Thanks, but i was wanting to look back at cut lines through the season. This only shows the final standings, unless I am dumb and am not seeing it, which is very possible.

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

Ceiling / Chance of 10 TDS....

Riddick - 0%, Ivory - 15%, Jennings - 25%, Powell - 15%, Blount - 25%, Crowell - 10%, Foster - 30%

Floor / Chance of 3 TDS.....

Riddick - 5%, Ivory - 5%, Jennings - 5%, Powell - 10%, Blount - 10%, Crowell - 5%, Foster - 20%

The percentages are obviously debateable....maybe its Jennings for risk mitigated upside and Foster for max upside...or just keep it simple and take Jennings....

All this worry and some schmoe like Sims that I would never take will end up outperforming them all.  Classic.

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d1234 said:

I dont think this makes sense.  It says that there is a 50% chance that Foster will have exactly 3 or exactly 10 TD's.  It also says that the odds of him having, 0,1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11+ TDs is the same as exactly the same as him having exactly 3 or 10 tds.

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

Imagine I had said 10 or more TDs and 3 or less TDs....point being that there is a lot of uncertainty in Fosters situation...which could be bad or good....

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FUBAR said:

Now I'm debating whether to spend $7 or $8 on a 3rd QB.

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(HULK) said:

Last year was easy when you could grab Cousins, Fitz, and Tyrod all for $5 or less

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FUBAR said:

Simian, Prescott and brissett are great values. 

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SeniorVBDStudent said:

really really difficult to not have Arian Foster on my roster....he looked so much better than Ajayjayjaihialai.

Riddick, Ivory, Jennings, Powell, Blount and Crowell are probably all "smarter" choices but....

talk me down.

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• I just put this together this afternoon so there could very well be something wrong with it - please let me know if you find bugs!
  
• The scores for these most likely won't update in realtime, it will just be a kind of weekly update after each NFL weekend is done.  I don't really want to mess too much with the existing live scoring process because it's poorly written and poorly documented so I'm apt to screw something up.  EDIT: I lied, I think live scoring will work for these. 
  
• You can only create one alternate entry.  I imagine some of you might want more than that, but it's not in the cards for now.  I'm really hoping at some point I'll have some downtime to basically rebuild the entire site, at which point I'll try to add more features.  
  
• Just like on the real FBG site, every time you submit an alternate roster, it overwrites any previous rosters you've saved.  There is no warning, no "undo," no nothing.  It's just gone - so be sure that's what you want to do.
  
• Unlike the FBG site, it doesn't check to see if the roster is vaild.  So if you just check a single player and click Submit, it'll accept it.  Similarly if you check every player and click Submit, it will give you a 389 player roster.  Please don't do this!  If you just want a complete list of all the players and their weekly scores, that already exists, don't use this page for that purpose.  This is just meant to be a place for us to save and follow the progress of a second hypothetical contest entry.  If you find yourself wanting to use this page for some other purpose, just let me know and I'll try to build a tool to do whatever you're trying to do.  
  

Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Just an FYI, I'm still planning to update the live scoring site for 2016, and should have all the rosters loaded shortly after the contest locks (though possibly not in time for the Thursday night opener).  Right now if you go there, it still has last year's lineups and probably remnants of week 16 scoring displaying, but no worries, I'll get everything refreshed soon. 

In the meantime, if you're looking for some info or just a fun diversion as you're constructing your 2016 rosters, I updated the Historical Querier with last year's results.  I did it pretty quickly and it's a really clunky process (I've accumulated a ton of tech debt that I'll eventually have to repay when I have some free time) so please let me know if you try it out and run into any issues.  

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Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Another little announcement: If you like to drive yourself nuts, I just added a new feature to my FBG contest site.  You can now create an alternate "What If?" roster and save it to your profile so you can track its performance over the course of the season.  Check it out here (you'll need to have a profile and be logged in, so do that if necessary):  http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/whatif.php

A few notes:

• I just put this together this afternoon so there could very well be something wrong with it - please let me know if you find bugs!
  
• The scores for these most likely won't update in realtime, it will just be a kind of weekly update after each NFL weekend is done.  I don't really want to mess too much with the existing live scoring process because it's poorly written and poorly documented so I'm apt to screw something up.
• You can only create one alternate entry.  I imagine some of you might want more than that, but it's not in the cards for now.  I'm really hoping at some point I'll have some downtime to basically rebuild the entire site, at which point I'll try to add more features.  
  
• Just like on the real FBG site, every time you submit an alternate roster, it overwrites any previous rosters you've saved.  There is no warning, no "undo," no nothing.  It's just gone - so be sure that's what you want to do.
  
• Unlike the FBG site, it doesn't check to see if the roster is vaild.  So if you just check a single player and click Submit, it'll accept it.  Similarly if you check every player and click Submit, it will give you a 389 player roster.  Please don't do this!  If you just want a complete list of all the players and their weekly scores, that already exists, don't use this page for that purpose.  This is just meant to be a place for us to save and follow the progress of a second hypothetical contest entry.  If you find yourself wanting to use this page for some other purpose, just let me know and I'll try to build a tool to do whatever you're trying to do.  
  

Feedback, questions, complaints etc. are all welcome here or via the Contact link on site.  

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msudaisy26 said:

You are awesome and evil at the same time.

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