Below is a thought experiment I do each year at this time, based on Princeton's press release about their incoming class. I pick Princeton because they always include the legacy admit number, though this year I see they have omitted the number of international students accepted. The point is to identify how many "regular" kids - not athlete, under-represented minority, legacy, etc - get admitted. Since most of the kids we followed this season seem to be girls, I focused on the stats for women.
Overall Princeton admitted 1,895 of 32,804 applicants (5.77% overall)
Regular Decision admit rate was 4.2%
1895 admits - 1061 People of Color = 834 slots left (Pton reported admitting 56% POC)
834 slots - 400 men = 434 slots left (48% of admits were men)
434 - 24 legacy = 410 slots left (11% of admits were legacy, that would be 48. Let’s estimate half were POC and have already been counted, though I think that number is way overestimated).
410 - 37 first-gen = 373 slots left (18% of admits were first gen, that would be 74. Again, to be conservative, let’s estimate that half of them were not POC)
373 - 45 international students = 328 slots left (note: Princeton did not identify the percentage of international students this year, so I used last year’s 12%. For reporting purposes, schools are not allowed to include non-resident alien students in their POC stats.)
328 slots - 45 athletes = 283 (The Ivy League allows Princeton 230 recruited athletes, half of whom are women which = 115. 65% of Ivy athletes are white which equals = 75. A conservative estimate is that 45 of these athletes haven’t already been counted as legacy or first-gen. It’s probably way more when you think about who plays soccer, tennis, squash, lacrosse, crew, etc)
So by a very conservative estimate, Princeton admitted only 283 unhooked white women this year. And that’s not even getting into faculty kids, big donors, etc. The real number is almost certainly lower, though the exact figure isn't important.
What's important is the unescapable reality that your daughter would literally have to be one of the top 5 or 6 female applicants in your entire state to have a realistic shot at getting into Princeton, unless she fit into one of the mentioned categories above.
My younger kid is a sophomore in high school, and I've already told him that Yale is off the table. We are going to be highly strategic in shooting our Early Decision bullet because it's the only chance he has of cracking the schools that he's put on his preliminary list. That means the Early Action schools like Yale, Harvard, Princeton and Georgetown are all off the list. I just don't believe EA gives nearly the admissions boost that binding ED does.
And by the time Fall 2020 rolls around, I will probably have crossed some ED schools off the list too - because I'm going to want him to apply ED to a place where he is at/above the 75th percentile of the admitted class. I think that's the only hope of bringing any predictability to the process. Maybe I'll let him shoot an ED shot at a reach like Northwestern or Brown, but only if he commits to applying ED2 to somewhere like Wash U in St. Louis or Wesleyan after that first app (almost inevitably) doesn't land an acceptance.