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**Streaming Defense** Weeks 14-16 FF Playoffs


BobbyLayne

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This will be a season long thread with the title updated weekly.

This thread has had a high rate of success for a lot of people the last couple years, often scoring close to or better than the best FF DT/DST options.

Couple things to keep in mind for the discussion...

  • this is not a discussion of elite defenses, or for FF purposes, perceived elite defense which were drafted in single digit rounds in some leagues. We know ARI, CAR, DEN and SEA are first tier DT/DSTs, and HOU, KC, LA, MIN and NE were likely drafted as well. Those 9 teams and a couple others are unlikely to be on anyone's waiver wire to start the year.
  • the discussion is focused on THIS WEEK but obviously it's a nice bonus if a team has a stretch of good matchups coming up.
  • this is not a discussion of value plug n play defense you can draft in the latter rounds, or pairing two defenses together for the season; philosophically, the Streaming DT approach is being willing to pick a new defense every week or every 2-3 games
  • Fantasy Football Points Allowed to DT is a pretty solid indicator, even more so than how good the RL defense actually is; unfortunately, we don't have relevant data or a large enough sample, so September is a little trickier.
  • Last year the most generous offenses were (in order): TEN, JAX, DAL, CLE, DEN, SD, PHI, BAL. Obviously a lot changes during the offseason and this list should be discounted (unless you think the Jags will give up 7 defensive TDs again.)
  • League scoring rules vary widely. My league gives 0.25 points for a tackle for loss, 0.50 for 3 n outs, 1.00 for a 4th down stop, incremental bonuses from 1-10 when the defense allows less than 300 yards. Most leagues are simplified and the biggest factor is Points Allowed, usually something along the lines of:
    Points Allowed 0 points 10  
    Points Allowed 1-6 points 7  
    Points Allowed 7-13 points 4  
    Points Allowed 14-20 points 1  
    Points Allowed 21-27 points 0  
    Points Allowed 28-34 points -1  
    Points Allowed 35+ points -4  

Likely WW Defenses (feel free to add others) for Week 1:

  1. NYG @ DAL
  2. JAC v. GB (bad idea)
  3. BAL v. BUF
  4. DET @ IND (nope)
  5. DAL v. NYG
  6. ATL v. TB
  7. CHI @ HOU
  8. TEN v. MIN
  9. SF v. LA
  10. CLE @ PHI
  11. NO v. OAK
  12. SD @ KC

So what's everyone thinking so far?

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Yeah the expectations are high for the Eagles D this year because Schwartz has a great track record (sans his stint as a HC.)

Tennessee at home versus Shaun Hill seems like another popular choice.

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Think I am sticking with the Jets at home versus the Bengals. That will be followed by @ BUF and @ KC. I feel kind of neutral about their September schedule, but October starts with a scary stretch: SEA, @ PIT, @ ARI. Down the road, after Thanksgiving, they face the Pats twice (Championship week they're in Foxboro) and the Colts. 

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Let's frame this another way; who will have the worst offenses in 2016 in terms of fewest points & most turnovers?

My bottom 10 list (e.g., target defenses playing these teams):

BAL

CHI

CLE

DET

LA

MIA

MIN

SD

SF

TEN

Anybody missing? Disagree with those 10 offenses being the least productive and/or turnover prone?

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12 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Let's frame this another way; who will have the worst offenses in 2016 in terms of fewest points & most turnovers?

My bottom 10 list (e.g., target defenses playing these teams):

BAL

CHI

CLE

DET

LA

MIA

MIN

SD

SF

TEN

Anybody missing? Disagree with those 10 offenses being the least productive and/or turnover prone?

I don't think I want to pick on Det or SD on purpose.  Not that they are top shelf but they should have effective passing games and not awesome defenses which might lead to shootouts. Happy to go against any of the bolded.

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24 minutes ago, need2know said:

Phi offense should be pretty bad

When Ryan Mathews is healthy, I don't think they'll be that bad. In fact they'll probably be pretty decent. When Mathews goes down though, this could get ugly.

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2 minutes ago, Insein said:

When Ryan Mathews is healthy, I don't think they'll be that bad. In fact they'll probably be pretty decent. When Mathews goes down though, this could get ugly.

I bet he doesn't make it to week 8

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4 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Let's frame this another way; who will have the worst offenses in 2016 in terms of fewest points & most turnovers?

My bottom 10 list (e.g., target defenses playing these teams):

BAL

CHI

CLE

DET

LA

MIA

MIN

SD

SF

TEN

Anybody missing? Disagree with those 10 offenses being the least productive and/or turnover prone?

Detroit and SD should be decent on offense if not much improved imho.

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1 hour ago, pinkham13 said:

Detroit and SD should be decent on offense if not much improved imho.

Hard to see the Chargers climbing much in yardage but assuming they cut down turnovers (24, 12th most) they might score more. 9th in total offense, 27th in PF. The D is soft so they figure to be in some shootouts.

The Lions have a terrible O-line, cannot run the ball at all, and their best player retired. Hope I'm wrong about how I think 2016 will go for them.

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10 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Hard to see the Chargers climbing much in yardage but assuming they cut down turnovers (24, 12th most) they might score more. 9th in total offense, 27th in PF. The D is soft so they figure to be in some shootouts.

The Lions have a terrible O-line, cannot run the ball at all, and their best player retired. Hope I'm wrong about how I think 2016 will go for them.

The volume and the short passing game was effective in the second half. Calvin rarely practiced enough to be on the same page with Matt. But yeah hard to dismiss the big guy being gone.

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3 hours ago, pinkham13 said:

Calvin rarely practiced enough to be on the same page with Matt.

I don't want to sidetrack the thread but do you have a source for that? They played together 7 years and I follow them closely. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway so maybe San Diego isn't in the top ten worst offenses. Personally I think Detroit will be; they cannot run the ball effectively and despite investments the O-line is a weakness. I do think Reif will be a better RT than he was on the backside. The issue is #1 pick Taylor Decker hasn't resembled a LT so far. Maybe they mitigate those issues with lots of quick passes off short drops.

Borderline/questionable offenses aside, seems the start of this year will see several young, inexperienced or simply not very good QBs. Should be options on WWs to take advantage of those match ups.

 

Siemian DEN

Prescott DAL v NYG

Goff/Keenum LAR

Hill MIN @ TEN 

 

Then you've got several veteran QBs who are not effective or lack weapons or at least aren't a scary prospect: Flacco, Ryan, RGIII, Cutler, Smith, Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Bradford, Gabbert, Cousins.

Until we have more data, bad QB match ups seem like a good place to start your streaming plans.

The best paper matchup on our wire is TEN @ home versus MIN. Probably sticking with Jets unless I find more reasons to trust the Titans.

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3 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

I don't want to sidetrack the thread but do you have a source for that? They played together 7 years and I follow them closely. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway so maybe San Diego isn't in the top ten worst offenses. Personally I think Detroit will be; they cannot run the ball effectively and despite investments the O-line is a weakness. I do think Reif will be a better RT than he was on the backside. The issue is #1 pick Taylor Decker hasn't resembled a LT so far. Maybe they mitigate those issues with lots of quick passes off short drops.

Borderline/questionable offenses aside, seems the start of this year will see several young, inexperienced or simply not very good QBs. Should be options on WWs to take advantage of those match ups.

 

Siemian DEN

Prescott DAL v NYG

Goff/Keenum LAR

Hill MIN @ TEN 

 

Then you've got several veteran QBs who are not effective or lack weapons or at least aren't a scary prospect: Flacco, Ryan, RGIII, Cutler, Smith, Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Bradford, Gabbert, Cousins.

Until we have more data, bad QB match ups seem like a good place to start your streaming plans.

The best paper matchup on our wire is TEN @ home versus MIN. Probably sticking with Jets unless I find more reasons to trust the Titans.

He took every Thursday off religiously. Having owned Calvin I was always sure to see if he was healthy enough to play. Mostly he would practice on Saturday but that's about it.

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1 minute ago, pinkham13 said:

He took every Thursday off religiously. Having owned Calvin I was always sure to see if he was healthy enough to play. Mostly he would practice on Saturday but that's about it.

I was not questioning if Calvin took days off - as do a plethora of pro bowl caliber vets - I was questioning your assertion that he and Stafford were not on the same page because they didn't get enough practice reps together. I've never seen or heard that observation.

Not important TBH. Not germane to the thread topic, you're entitled to your opinion.

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

I was not questioning if Calvin took days off - as do a plethora of pro bowl caliber vets - I was questioning your assertion that he and Stafford were not on the same page because they didn't get enough practice reps together. I've never seen or heard that observation.

Not important TBH. Not germane to the thread topic, you're entitled to your opinion.

They seemed to be off a lot to me. Balls thrown behind, in front, all over the map is what I observed.  But ya not really on topic here.

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21 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Hard to see the Chargers climbing much in yardage but assuming they cut down turnovers (24, 12th most) they might score more. 9th in total offense, 27th in PF. The D is soft so they figure to be in some shootouts.

The Lions have a terrible O-line, cannot run the ball at all, and their best player retired. Hope I'm wrong about how I think 2016 will go for them.

The O-line problems are one of the reasons they are going to the shotgun formation

 

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23 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Hard to see the Chargers climbing much in yardage but assuming they cut down turnovers (24, 12th most) they might score more. 9th in total offense, 27th in PF. The D is soft so they figure to be in some shootouts.

The Lions have a terrible O-line, cannot run the ball at all, and their best player retired. Hope I'm wrong about how I think 2016 will go for them.

I went back recently and watched a lot of their games from last year. Even at the end when they were "playing better", albeit against bottom rung defenses, I would see Calvin make many key plays where I would ask myself, who is going to do THAT this year? 

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1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

I went back recently and watched a lot of their games from last year. Even at the end when they were "playing better", albeit against bottom rung defenses, I would see Calvin make many key plays where I would ask myself, who is going to do THAT this year? 

Marvin Jones

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Moving the discussion across the LOS...

 

Starting to warm to the idea of using the Lions on a semi-regular basis as a streaming D. But before I address personnel & strengths, let's look at the schedule:

1. @ IND - pass

2. TEN - this is the week you're going to sit-up & notice how good the DT rotation is at stopping the run game

3. @ GB - nope

4. @ CHI - bad decision maker & the Lions own them - 6 straight wins, longest streak in the 83 season series

5. PHI - plus matchup for sure

6. LA - right about now expect some hot takes on just how good Teryl Austin's unit is

7. WAS - let it ride 

8. @ HOU - probably no but you'll be tempted

9. @ MIN - historically not a good road team

10. BYE - & you're confused if they're good or not

11. JAX - should probably dump these clowns for Booker, Dixon or Howard

12. MIN - when they're good they're really good

13. @ NO - what happened they can't stop anyone

14. CHI - I'm such an idiot why did I start the NYG when I knew Zeke would go off

ROS - not a good plan 

 

Good match up D, but not great - not a plug n play. Expect schizophrenia, that's normal in Motown.

WHAT I LIKE: Really good collection of interior linemen who will stuff the run. Ziggy Ansah is an outstanding edge rusher & hasn't even peaked. Slay is maybe the 2nd or 3rd best cover guy in the league. Levy - THE best cover LB when healthy - is once again and should return to form.

WEAKNESSES - LB corps beyond Levy. Ziggy will get his but they need another edge rusher. When they had a top unit a few years ago, it was keyed by the interior rush. Not sure these guys can collapse the pocket the way Suh did.

You can pick them up for Week 2, dump them if you like for the GB game, but def roll with them for the Chicago game & during the 3 game home stand. After that I'd be cautious but they'll have their moments.

In 2017, they'll be an elite defense under new HC Matt Patricia.

Youre welcome.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still on the fence about Week 1. Not crazy about Jets @ home versus CIN but I cannot trust TEN. And for all the money they spent on D, not yet convinced about the NYG unit.

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5 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Moving the discussion across the LOS...

 

Starting to warm to the idea of using the Lions on a semi-regular basis as a streaming D. But before I address personnel & strengths, let's look at the schedule:

1. @ IND - pass

2. TEN - this is the week you're going to sit-up & notice how good the DT rotation is at stopping the run game

3. @ GB - nope

4. @ CHI - bad decision maker & the Lions own them - 6 straight wins, longest streak in the 83 season series

5. PHI - plus matchup for sure

6. LA - right about now expect some hot takes on just how good Teryl Austin's unit is

7. WAS - let it ride 

8. @ HOU - probably no but you'll be tempted

9. @ MIN - historically not a good road team

10. BYE - & you're confused if they're good or not

11. JAX - should probably dump these clowns for Booker, Dixon or Howard

12. MIN - when they're good they're really good

13. @ NO - what happened they can't stop anyone

14. CHI - I'm such an idiot why did I start the NYG when I knew Zeke would go off

ROS - not a good plan 

 

Good match up D, but not great - not a plug n play. Expect schizophrenia, that's normal in Motown.

WHAT I LIKE: Really good collection of interior linemen who will stuff the run. Ziggy Ansah is an outstanding edge rusher & hasn't even peaked. Slay is maybe the 2nd or 3rd best cover guy in the league. Levy - THE best cover LB when healthy - is once again and should return to form.

WEAKNESSES - LB corps beyond Levy. Ziggy will get his but they need another edge rusher. When they had a top unit a few years ago, it was keyed by the interior rush. Not sure these guys can collapse the pocket the way Suh did.

You can pick them up for Week 2, dump them if you like for the GB game, but def roll with them for the Chicago game & during the 3 game home stand. After that I'd be cautious but they'll have their moments.

In 2017, they'll be an elite defense under new HC Matt Patricia.

Youre welcome.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still on the fence about Week 1. Not crazy about Jets @ home versus CIN but I cannot trust TEN. And for all the money they spent on D, not yet convinced about the NYG unit.

I feel the same about using cinci @ nyj.  But I don't trust nyg either.  Should get a bit easier as the weeks go by and we have more data

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1 hour ago, need2know said:

I feel the same about using cinci @ nyj.  But I don't trust nyg either.  Should get a bit easier as the weeks go by and we have more data

Yeah they're probably worth hanging onto but you gotta figure the Bengals are not gonna be the same Weeks 1-3. But when you're making the stretch drive for the playoffs, Weeks 11-13 are pretty juicy.

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Season long, Green Bays schedule is extremely favorable. They've dominated Cutler & Stafford over the years, and now get Shaun Hill too twice this year. Plus they enjoy the INT friendly QBs of Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, and Sam Bradford along the way.

 

Young, talented defense that is ready to come together. Calling it now, they'll be a top 5 defense all season, and a good shot at the top overall defense if it all comes together this year. 

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i picked up the eagles for week 1.  drafted the pats, 2nd to last pick, because they always seem to end up in the top 10 and they will be on point with the matinee idol out for the first 4 games.  they get the bills, jets, browns, sf, rams, ravens, broncos.  with the last 3 being playoff weeks.

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On 9/1/2016 at 9:18 AM, BobbyLayne said:

My bottom 10 list (e.g., target defenses playing these teams):

SD

Anybody missing? Disagree with those 10 offenses being the least productive and/or turnover prone?

Disagree with SD.

Last season, SD was #9 in yards and #26 in points. SD had 24 TOs, which was just above league average. In 2013, with Whisenhunt as OC, SD was #5 in yards and #12 in points. SD had 21 TOs, which was below league average. Whisenhunt is back.

Also consider this. Through its first 8 games last season, SD was #1 in combined passing and rushing yards and #6 in combined passing and rushing TDs. In the final 8 games last season: WR1 Allen missed all 8 games; the next 3 WRs combined to miss 6 games; RB1 Gordon missed 2 games; and the starting OL combined to miss 19 games. The volume of injuries and the nature of some of them (e.g., Allen lacerated his kidney) were flukish and do not seem likely to be repeated.

What has changed? Whisenhunt back at OC; OL improved through draft and free agency; WRs Floyd and Stevie Johnson replaced with Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams; TE2 Green replaced with rookie Henry; Gordon looks improved over last year; FB added to the roster. Overall, the offense should be upgraded.

SD should be an above average offense this year and should not be in your list.

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On 9/1/2016 at 11:10 AM, BobbyLayne said:

PFF O-line rankings:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-entering-the-2016-season/

Umm, not sure I agree with #32, but otherwise useful info, albeit four weeks old.

This article is not at all useful. As you point out, it is outdated. More importantly, it is backward looking. For example, from the Chargers' writeup:

Quote

The Chargers’ offensive line has a reputation for everyone being hurt, which seemed to be true last year. Joe Barksdale was the only O-lineman to play 1,100 or more snaps, and was also the only one with an above-average grade. Dunlap, Franklin, and Fluker all missed some time last year, and all played a bit worse than they had in previous seasons. If all of them can be healthy and return to their old form, this line—with the addition of Matt Slauson (Bears) at center—could actually be very good.

Despite the bolded, the Chargers' OL is ranked #29. I don't see how the article is useful for predictive purposes.

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Been targeting Vikings, Steelers, and Eagles for week 1.  Rams as well but they've been going before I'm willing to take them.  Honestly, I like the Eagles because they have a weak matchup in week 2 as well. 

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On 9/1/2016 at 3:12 PM, Insein said:

This one works. It's a running thread for the season.

 

 Came here looking for the 2016 version of this thread, then guessed "Insein" as I had remembered our PMs prior to last season.

 Then noticed Bobby had started this one, and Insein is already a contributor.

 = WIN.     :thumbup:

 

 

 By the way- just for on topic points, I targeted the Minny defense in several spots. Not sure how they will work out, but I thought they would be a solid one to start the season. Its not like they were awful last year and they seem to be more defensive focused, especially now that Teddy is gone.

 

 If they don't work, I will be blowing up this thread regularly.

 Good to have this one back boys.   :wub:

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 Oh, noticed a few things about some of my leagues, so I can thank this thread for subtly "reminding" me to be aware of the defenses on the wire already.

 I noticed the NYJ on the wire in one league, and they have BUF and KC in weeks 2-3.  In weeks 7-8-9 they face BAL, CLE and MIA. 2 of those matchups are on the road, but still.

 NYJ (if you can acquire them) may be one you can alternate in and out with another "flavor of the week" defense.

 

I HAVE to bring up the Jags defense....and looking for others thoughts.  All I heard in the offseason was "the Jags have vastly improved their defense". So it got me to thinking, and I have noticed they are available pretty much everywhere, in every league.

I don't like their schedule really, but I did notice one thing. We all know key weeks are 14-15-16. (for those among us that plan on being alive and playing in those playoff weeks that is) I noticed immediately that the Jags are at home vs. The Vikes in week 14, and then in championship week 16 they are at home again vs. the Titans.

 Obviously thats a long way off, but every year I have tried to keep a few possible streamers in mind for the playoffs. This one, might be one to watch.

 

 I haven't followed some defensive thoughts concerning a few teams this year, but I also noticed the Bills on several of my wires. What gives?  It seemed like Rex Ryan usually had "above average" defenses the past few years. Have I missed a rash of Bills injuries?   I know they face LA, SF and Miami in weeks 5-6-7.  I may target them  in a few spots.

 

 

 Thoughts???

 

 TZM

 

 

 

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On September 5, 2016 at 11:57 AM, Braktastic said:

Does anyone feel differently about using the Eagles Week 1 with Wentz as the starting quarterback?  I feel like I'm over-thinking this.

I wish the Browns resembled an average or mediocre defense. Would love to roll with a DT/DST facing a rookie with 38 PS snaps under  his belt.

To your point, everyone has been touting the Eagles as a sexy sleeper DT/DST for this year. It's not just having a new DC with a good track. The investments and the switch to a 4-3 are going to pay off IMO. But game flow will be interesting.

They have no run game, receivers who can't get open, and a rookie QB from FCS school. The Eagles have potentially the worst offense in the NFL. Whoever they are playing should be a popular streaming option all year.

Except Week 1.

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Zimmer is waiting until Sunday to name his Week 1 starter. 

Titans seem like a good streaming option if you don't like your Week 1 DST. But I'm thinking most folks like the one they drafted until proven otherwise.

I'm rolling with the Jets.

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The trade of Bradford caused me to take a mental pause on the Eagles, but I'm still rolling with them. Too much sack potential and that can lead to a fumble and other such delights. The deep threat is a slight concern though.

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On 9/1/2016 at 11:31 AM, TartanLion said:

MIN are actually on my wire but I've gone with PHI for the first week. RG3 should give up sacks and he won't have Gordon in the lineup. 

 

 

man i'd be snatchin up MIN off the wire immediately

i'm crossin fingers a pluggin in tampa wk1, my only hope is matt ryan INTs for that falcon oline to spring some leaks

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1 minute ago, xenith said:

man i'd be snatchin up MIN off the wire immediately

i'm crossin fingers a pluggin in tampa wk1, my only hope is matt ryan INTs for that falcon oline to spring some leaks

 

 

 I was targeting MINN defense all offseason.  I actually was able to land them in a couple spots.

 But reading more and more about the Eagles, I was debating on snagging them but after looking at their schedule, after the Bears in week 2 it is very hit and miss.

 Actually, the Eagles may be a good candidate to slot in very "here and there".

 

 But after wanting MINN all offseason, I am going to talk myself off the ledge and just roll them out week 1. Every time I go the other way, (Eagles) I regret it down the track.

 

 

 

 TZM

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Rams at SF on MNF.

Gabbert has no WR to throw too, Hyde just got cleared from concussion protocol, Bruce Miller released for causing concussions, Kaep getting a ton of pub adds up to distractions + no limited talent.  Keenum is good enough to manage the game and let Gurley control it.

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21 hours ago, TartanLion said:

The trade of Bradford caused me to take a mental pause on the Eagles, but I'm still rolling with them. Too much sack potential and that can lead to a fumble and other such delights. The deep threat is a slight concern though.

me too.  hated it.  but it has the the hallmark of an under 40 points total game.

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Some possibilities...

WAS v PIT

Call it a hunch. At home, prime time, frenzied crowd, J-No shadowing AB, Steelers are missing their RB1, WR2 and TE, Ben was not great on the road last year. Stranger things have happened.

Upcoming: DAL @NYG CLE - Outside of the Giants game you could keep rolling with them.

DET @ IND

People are underestimating how much talent the Lions have on this side of the ball.

Upcoming: TEN @GB @CHI - could def see you starting Detroit three out of four.

CLE @ PHI

Wentz, no running game, WRs who can't get open. I like it.

Upcoming: BAL @MIA @WAS - Next 2 weeks they're in the conversation.

TEN v MIN

Presuming Hill gets the start. Zimmer won't announce his QB until Sunday.

Upcoming: @DET OAK @HOU - not good.

 

 

 

 

Pickups for next week (all at home):


OAK v ATL
CHI v PHI
WAS v DAL

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