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**Streaming Defense** Weeks 14-16 FF Playoffs (1 Viewer)

wormburner said:
Bit of a thread hijack, but I'll ask anyway~

Maybe not 4th, but why not this? Old school drafting (multiple RBs early) has morphed to reflect the NFL's passing game.  Perhaps waiting until the last round or two to draft a D/ST may be rethought, as well?  No doubt a guppy move to many of you, but the floor of a stud defense seems more attractive to me right now than the "opportunity" some of those on my bench are waiting for.
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Historically, the problem has been that defenses aren't very consistent year to year. The most highly drafted Ds rarely finish that way.

Has it gotten more predictable in recent years with Seattle, Carolina and Denver? Maybe, but I doubt enough to make that strategy worthwhile. But I will say that I get the logic of reaching a bit for a D just to avoid the psychological toll of stressing out over it each week. I'm starting to come around to that view with respect to TEs, if not yet Ds.

For Ds, my sense is that the sharkiest move may be to try to identify breakout Ds based on talent and coaching and then reach a round or two to get them. Last year, I targeted Minny and Denver, which would have worked out great if I hadn't stupidly drafted Miami. This year I went for Philly (jury's still out).

 
zftcg said:
Historically, the problem has been that defenses aren't very consistent year to year. The most highly drafted Ds rarely finish that way.

Has it gotten more predictable in recent years with Seattle, Carolina and Denver? Maybe, but I doubt enough to make that strategy worthwhile. But I will say that I get the logic of reaching a bit for a D just to avoid the psychological toll of stressing out over it each week. I'm starting to come around to that view with respect to TEs, if not yet Ds.

For Ds, my sense is that the sharkiest move may be to try to identify breakout Ds based on talent and coaching and then reach a round or two to get them. Last year, I targeted Minny and Denver, which would have worked out great if I hadn't stupidly drafted Miami. This year I went for Philly (jury's still out).
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Right on, thanks.  I didn't have to reach, but thought the bolded had played out when I picked up the Jags D late.  Now playing waiver wire roulette along with the rest of you.  I wonder if mid-round D/ST's will become the next  "zero-RB" FF strategy change, or remain something for Sharks to mock guppies about.

 
Insein said:
I'm keeping Eagles. But might pick up another D for the next 2 weeks. 
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Same. Eagles d is very very good.

But im looking for another d to stream while keeping them.  I have SF RT now and they might fare well vs sea.  Maybe.  

 
wormburner said:
Right on, thanks.  I didn't have to reach, but thought the bolded had played out when I picked up the Jags D late.  Now playing waiver wire roulette along with the rest of you.  I wonder if mid-round D/ST's will become the next  "zero-RB" FF strategy change, or remain something for Sharks to mock guppies about.
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We're getting far afield, but I'll try to bring this back to streaming. The issue with any position is a) how reliable are the top picks, and b) how close can you come to top production by drafting late/streaming. If you can hit on your drafted D, you don't have to worry about streaming, but because it's usually so hard to predict a season-long defensive performance, while it is relatively easy to predict a weekly match-up, streaming has been the optimal strategy.

You didn't do anything wrong by drafting the Jags. You just swung and missed, and now you have to fall back on streaming. But you also didn't waste a mid-round pick on a D.

The optimal strategy will only really change if we reach a point where there are a few consistently elite Ds and then a bunch of mediocre options. Are we at that point already with Denver, Seattle, Carolina and Arizona? Possibly. I think we're even closer when it comes to TE, and you could even argue with Gostkowski at kicker.

The issue then becomes the "winner's curse". Over the past couple years, I've found myself reaching a round earlier for defenses, but to get a Denver/Gronk/Gostkowski, you have to go *way* earlier, and I don't think it's worth it.

/tangent

 
I'm all over Miami this week. Raw rookie third string QB on what was already one of the worst teams in the league? Sign me up! Dolphins aren't a great D, but they're competent, and playing their home opener. Not sure if the refurbished stadium will be louder, but at a minimum it will be cooler, which should lead to more crowd energy.

 
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zftcg said:
The issue then becomes the "winner's curse". Over the past couple years, I've found myself reaching a round earlier for defenses, but to get a Denver/Gronk/Gostkowski, you have to go *way* earlier, and I don't think it's worth it.

/tangent
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Right on, thanks.  Agree with you here in that, even if only by a degree or two, we are adjusting our drafting strategies concerning D/ST. 

Also, dittos to your next post for Miami this week.

 
zftcg said:
I'm all over Miami this week. Raw rookie third string QB on what was already one of the worst teams in the league? Sign me up! Dolphins aren't a great D, but they're competent, and playing their home opener. Not sure if the refurbished stadium will be louder, but at a minimum it will be cooler, which should lead to more crowd energy.
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According to my league's scoring rules, the most "giving" offenses based on FPTS are Chi, Mia, TB, LA, Ind, Sea, Cle and Ten (Cin was the next team on the list). Miami's next 3 opponents are CLE, @CIN, and TEN. So I am also targeting Miami as a streaming defense for the near future.

 
MIA is my first choice. SF is a distant second choice for this week... but I'm keeping an eye on them for future weeks. 

 
Would you drop the eagles for the dolphins? Are the dolphins worth that? I do like the eagles but I can't keep two def, not enough bench room.

 
drm1125 said:
Would you drop the eagles for the dolphins? Are the dolphins worth that? I do like the eagles but I can't keep two def, not enough bench room.
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I'm all about keeping the Eagles even with Pitt & the bye coming up. They have looked good, have a fairly weak schedule, and a promising playoff schedule (Wash/@Balt/NYG).

If I turn them loose, I'm guessing that ship will sail.

Miami is obvious for week 3 but I will probably have to blow a waiver priority on it and I'm not feeling that. Cincy is available and I'm optimistic the next two weeks (Denver/Miami) both at home.

 
I drafted the Eagles but will drop them with PIt and the bye coming up and will look to pick them back up.

Eyeing the Bucs or Cowboys this week. Miami is really good too. as someone who watched all of Kessler's career, Kessler is not good.

 
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Was gonna go with the popular pick in Miami but I'm gonna go after the Pats instead. I realize they may not be available in a lot of leagues, but they haven't done much yet so they may be available on some wires.

I think they should be at least decent at home this week against Houston, but I'm really picking them up for the next two weeks, when they get Buffalo at home and Cleveland away.

 
I know many will say "run don't walk" to the WW if the Vikings are still available, but I have to choose between MIA and MIN.  Long term, MIN seems like a no brainer and I can ignore this streaming defense thread.  But, MIA has CLEV, @ CIN, and TEN the next 3 weeks.  MIN has @CAR (no Stewart, but Cam), NYG (on MNF), HOU. 

 
Yeah Im dropping Philly too. They are not worthy of being rostered for the next few weeks. They were solid vs two terrible teams but they are no must hold status.

 
On board the SF D move. They are generating turnovers. The SEA offense is in a funk. This looks like a div road game that is going to be on par with what we saw last weekend in LA. It just has that feel. Wilson is not playing well, the running game is average (3.2 YPA), Baldwin is injured and Graham is not productive.

 
red said:
I know many will say "run don't walk" to the WW if the Vikings are still available, but I have to choose between MIA and MIN.  Long term, MIN seems like a no brainer and I can ignore this streaming defense thread.  But, MIA has CLEV, @ CIN, and TEN the next 3 weeks.  MIN has @CAR (no Stewart, but Cam), NYG (on MNF), HOU. 
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I think when you have a defense as solid as Minn, you just roll with them regardless of match-up. If you can afford to roster two, maybe use Miami this week. But if not, I'd take the one-week hit in order to have the Vikings ROS.

 
MrJimiT said:
According to my league's scoring rules, the most "giving" offenses based on FPTS are Chi, Mia, TB, LA, Ind, Sea, Cle and Ten (Cin was the next team on the list). Miami's next 3 opponents are CLE, @CIN, and TEN. So I am also targeting Miami as a streaming defense for the near future.
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Assume that's based on the first two weeks? I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Most of those seem skewed by one bad game (eg, Tenn gave up two defensive TDs to the Vikes last week, Bucs got destroyed by Arizona on Sunday but looked very good in Week 1). I think it's pretty clear without looking at stats that Seattle, LA and Cleveland have bad offenses. I'd go more based on that than on FFPA rankings, at least for now. Later in the season, they'll be more relevant.

 
Tampa Bay's home opener v the Rams is a great match-up.

Miami at home v Cody Kessler, (likely) without Cameron Erving seems like another great match-up. 

 
Dolphins are definitely who I am eyeing. Some people are mentioning the Bucs but I don't trust them. We've gotten killed by Case Keenum in the past and the defense doesn't look much better this year. They could end up doing well, but I would definitely rather have Miami and a few teams over them.

 
Bucsfan5493 said:
Dolphins are definitely who I am eyeing. Some people are mentioning the Bucs but I don't trust them. We've gotten killed by Case Keenum in the past and the defense doesn't look much better this year. They could end up doing well, but I would definitely rather have Miami and a few teams over them.
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Yeah - I was looking at the Bucs but can't help thinking they're fool's gold. Rams aren't as bad as they've looked and will put it together more than they have - will it be this week? 

I like the Dolphins the most, but the Giants at home against the Redskins is looking pretty solid. 

Cowboys aren't a great defense but I like the matchup. 

 
Cody Kessler ranked 50th in the preseason in QBR (84.2).

He was 19/28 (good), 1 TD, no Int (good), for 92 yards (or 3.2 ypa, not good).

That was the lowest ypa in the entire preseason for anyone who threw 20 or more passes.

 
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Someone scooped the Dolphins so I dropped the Eagles for the Giants.   Pickings were slim but I did consider picking up either Bucs or Cowboys.   I'll try to get the Eagles back in a couple of weeks.

 
Welcome to the team Miami D/ST. Cannot see how a third stringer on Cleveland can possibly go into Miami and drop a decent game but then again this is the NFL...

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Cody Kessler ranked 50th in the preseason in QBR (84.2).

He was 19/28 (good), 1 TD, no Int (good), for 92 yards (or 3.2 ypa, not good).

That was the lowest ypa in the entire preseason for anyone who threw 20 or more passes.
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He didn't complete a single pass that travelled 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. On PS film, it's apparent he can't even get the ball to WRs quickly on bubble screens or quick hitters, e.g., no zip on the ball, allowing defenders to close quickly. On downfield throws he loops it high or under throws - in one case, he turned a sure TD to an wide open Gabriel into a near interception because he was so inaccurate.

Git yer :popcorn:   ready

Missed out on Giants. Passing on the Bucs, though I still think that's a good matchup to exploit.

 
missed on mia, pick up pit.  the cowboys were there, but i think the wentz factor is going to rear it's head in tis game.  at least i'm hoping it will! :D  

 
Landed the Dolphins. Hopefully we're all correct in assuming that Cleveland is a :tfp:  this week. The OL has been brutal enough to get 2 QBs broken in 2 games, so it will be interesting to see what approach CLE takes on offense here.  

If MIA is smart they'll stack 8 in the box and dare Kessler to throw. 

This may be an absolute jackpot. I am going to stream against CLE this week and possibly next as well. 

 
How does everyone feel about the Rams this week? The had a solid showing last week and are playing the Buccs without Doug Martin. 

 
johnnyboy8102 said:
How does everyone feel about the Rams this week? The had a solid showing last week and are playing the Buccs without Doug Martin. 
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Could be a sneaky play, except that they travel across the country for a road game in a hostile environment.  Jameis Winston coming off a brutal game - hard to say how he bounces back. 

I don't put a lot of stock into them missing Martin since Sims is one of the more capable backups. 

I'd probably look for a better option, but would put the Rams at middle-of-the-road with upside. The talent is there - a lot will depend on whether they can get the offense going so the D isn't completely winded. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Could be a sneaky play, except that they travel across the country for a road game in a hostile environment.  Jameis Winston coming off a brutal game - hard to say how he bounces back. 

I don't put a lot of stock into them missing Martin since Sims is one of the more capable backups. 

I'd probably look for a better option, but would put the Rams at middle-of-the-road with upside. The talent is there - a lot will depend on whether they can get the offense going so the D isn't completely winded. 
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Thanks for the response.

 
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