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ZWK's 2017 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

jeaton6 said:
If he weighed in at 210 but you know he gained the weight heading into the combine would your formula be able to account for this? i.e., you don't know how he performs on the field at that weight so does he get credit for the 210 weight even though his numbers were accumulated at the lower weight?
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My formula would just count him as 210. I might lower his value a bit in my subjective rankings because of it.

3 issues that make it tricky to downgrade players in situations like this: First, we don't have many good sources of info on players' weights. It's hard for us to know if a player measures 210 if that means that he played at 210, or if he played at 200 then put on 10 pounds for the combine and then is going to lose those 10 pounds before the season, or if he played at 200 and has now bulked up to 210 and will stay there. Second, using combine weights is a level playing field. Low weight is a negative for RBs, so probably lots of undersized RBs look to add a little weight before the combine. It's easy to compare RBs based on the weight that they ended up at for their combine weighin; it's hard to try to adjust every single RB back to their "true" weight to make them all comparable. Third, bulking up for the combine will tend to hurt a RB's numbers in the other drills (40, jumps, agility drills), which will bring his overall rating back down. If he manages to put up good numbers in the other drills, that's a sign that he can play well at the heavier weight.

 
Ross's size seems fine, especially if he runs 4.35 like nfldraftscout is projecting. 5'11" 190 lbs. is fine for a speedy WR.

My concern about him is that his production doesn't match his reputation. He has 11 25+ yard receptions in 14 games, which is below average for a team's WR1 and not what you want to see from the next DeSean Jackson, and only 9.2 yards per target.

 
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Joe Mixon has said that he's entering the draft. My formula now has him as the #2 rated RB, behind Cook and ahead of Guice (RBs 4-8 are a bit behind them, packed pretty tightly together). I think I'd draft him as the #3 RB, after Cook and Fournette (after downgrading him by ~20% for the risk from his character issues).

Elijah Hood has apparently changed his mind and is now saying that he'll enter the draft. That leaves Nick Chubb and Royce Freeman as the only draft-eligible RBs in my top 17 (top 3 tiers) who are saying that they'll stay in school. Guice & Barkley are not yet draft eligible and there's no word yet from Curtis Samuel or James Butler. So, entering the draft it looks like we have 4 of the top 8 college RBs, 8 or 9 of the top 13, and 11-13 of the top 17. Not bad.

At WR, I left FCS star Cooper Kupp off my big list. He has been ridiculously productive every year against inferior competition. For now I am going to arbitrarily estimate his career production as a very good +8.0 rating (which is 7th best in the country). That would make him the #6 WR prospect in this class, between Jalen Robinette and Courtland Sutton on my big list with an overall rating of 5.39.

 
I can't decide between Davis and Mixon at this point but there's a lot of time to decide this one.

Tex

 
ZWK said:
PFF summarizes Cook's elusiveness numbers here. From what I've seen, most of Cook's elusiveness happens in space, where he makes guys miss and then gets big runs. An 80-yard TD where you make the safety miss 10 yards downfield counts as 70 yards after contact and 1 missed tackle. I think that's a problem with using straight yards after contact (which is why I use capped yards after contact), but Cook also does very well in my elusiveness metrics thanks to his abilities in space.

McCaffrey at 210 lbs. would move up into the first tier. He'd be basically tied with Perine, Freeman, Chubb, Fournette, and Barkley as part of a very tight pack behind Cook, Mixon, and Guice. That is without doing anything with his 40 or other workout numbers.
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If the safety doesn't touch Cook, they don't count those yards as "after contact". But they do count it as a missed tackle.  Which doesn't make sense. They only count Yards After Contact on "broken touched" tackles, yet in their elusive rating they include both a broken tackle and a "missed untouched" tackle as a "missed tackle". Which also doesn't make sense.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
They were both injured (Doctson for the entire season).
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Doctson appears to have Achilles tendons that are like old rubbers bands that have sat in the sun and degraded.

He's appearing to be a massive bust. If he has Achilles issues now on both legs while just standing around, he won't make it thru a season. If they sign Brandon Marshall for instance, that is a tell that Doctson is not going to cut it.

Coleman is stuck on a team with no QB to get him the ball. Fast little guys need accurate QBs and those are hard to find.

This class is way deeper with WRs better than any that came out in 2016 and Courtland Sutton will declare soon to add 1 more to the list.

 
My formula can only see Mike Williams's statline, which was similar to Leggett, Cain, or Renfrow's, so this game basically didn't change his rating.

PFF just came out with an updated list of their top 32 NFL prospects, and they have Mike Williams at #5 as the first (non-IDP) fantasy-relevant player off the board.

If I was drafting today, I'd probably take Williams after Cook, Fournette, Davis, and maybe Mixon.

 
lod001 said:
Doctson appears to have Achilles tendons that are like old rubbers bands that have sat in the sun and degraded.

He's appearing to be a massive bust. If he has Achilles issues now on both legs while just standing around, he won't make it thru a season. If they sign Brandon Marshall for instance, that is a tell that Doctson is not going to cut it.

Coleman is stuck on a team with no QB to get him the ball. Fast little guys need accurate QBs and those are hard to find.

This class is way deeper with WRs better than any that came out in 2016 and Courtland Sutton will declare soon to add 1 more to the list.
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I'd take Coleman's performance right now over what I got out of Treadwell, he was healthy during the season and couldn't even get on the field.  It looks like from the WR rankings on here that he didn't rank all that high in this analysis as I don't even see him on the list. 

 
Men-in-Cleats said:
I'd take Coleman's performance right now over what I got out of Treadwell, he was healthy during the season and couldn't even get on the field.  It looks like from the WR rankings on here that he didn't rank all that high in this analysis as I don't even see him on the list. 
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I'm not 100% certain of this. There was some rumbling about ankle issues at various times during the season. 

 
petekrum said:
And last night is why I think Williams will be a star in the NFL. Those are plays a big time NFL WR makes.
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I mentioned this in another thread but I'm unsure if I'm higher on him now because he was so good in traffic last night or lower on him because he was unable to get even an inch of separation and was always in traffic. 

I don't know a ton about him but wasn't his ability to get open the biggest concern people had for him at the next level? I mean, we already knew he could go up and get the ball, right? 

 
While I get that line of thinking, it seems too short sighted to use a lack of big time separation last night as a negative. We have seen separation skills down the field from him for two years and Alabama is not the team to take seven step drops and let routes develop 22 yards downfield against. Anecdotally it seemed more like Watson saying '1 on 1 coverage? secondary full of first rounders be damned, Ill chuck it up because i know he'll dominate the catch point and bail us out.'

 
And who did he not get separation from (I sadly was unable to watch the game)?

If it was Humphrey, then it's at least explainable as he's a 1st round candidate too.

 
I don't remember specifically who, but there were also a minimum of 2 plays where he torched his coverage and they just grabbed hold and got PI called instead of giving up the big play, those don't show in the stats but they count a lot in seeing what he can do from an evaluation standpoint.

 
wildabeast49 said:
While I get that line of thinking, it seems too short sighted to use a lack of big time separation last night as a negative. We have seen separation skills down the field from him for two years and Alabama is not the team to take seven step drops and let routes develop 22 yards downfield against. Anecdotally it seemed more like Watson saying '1 on 1 coverage? secondary full of first rounders be damned, Ill chuck it up because i know he'll dominate the catch point and bail us out.'
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I thnk the fact that everybody and his brother touted Treadwell as an amazing prospect with the only consistent knock on him being lack of burst speed to gain separation, then watched him unable to even get on the field vs. NFL defenses....now fantasy players are nervous about the next guy with amazing ball skills and minimal separation vs. college defenders.

 
ZWK said:
My formula can only see Mike Williams's statline, which was similar to Leggett, Cain, or Renfrow's, so this game basically didn't change his rating.

PFF just came out with an updated list of their top 32 NFL prospects, and they have Mike Williams at #5 as the first (non-IDP) fantasy-relevant player off the board.

If I was drafting today, I'd probably take Williams after Cook, Fournette, Davis, and maybe Mixon.
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Would the order change if no one drafts Mixon? I have heard it said by more than one nfl person that they thought Mixon would go under drafted. Only asking because it seems a forgone conclusion he will be drafted. 

 
32 Counter Pass said:
Would the order change if no one drafts Mixon? I have heard it said by more than one nfl person that they thought Mixon would go under drafted. Only asking because it seems a forgone conclusion he will be drafted. 
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If he doesnt go in the first 3 rounds it would drop him a lot for me.

 
ZWK said:
My formula can only see Mike Williams's statline, which was similar to Leggett, Cain, or Renfrow's, so this game basically didn't change his rating.

PFF just came out with an updated list of their top 32 NFL prospects, and they have Mike Williams at #5 as the first (non-IDP) fantasy-relevant player off the board.

If I was drafting today, I'd probably take Williams after Cook, Fournette, Davis, and maybe Mixon.
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That didn't change my mind on who I'm targeting with my picks it just agreed with my decision.

Tex

 
32 Counter Pass said:
Would the order change if no one drafts Mixon? I have heard it said by more than one nfl person that they thought Mixon would go under drafted. Only asking because it seems a forgone conclusion he will be drafted. 
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He will be drafted in round 2 or 3.

The video won't be new in late April, and we're talking about a young, talented guy, not a washed-up Ray Rice.

 
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And Tyreek Hill was a nobody at the time of the draft. It's only now that he's blown the lid off the NFL that his past transgressions are in the public eye.

Mixon's case is much more like La'el Collins'. Collins name was in the orbit of a situation where his pregnant ex-girlfriend was murdered. It mattered to the draft because he was a first rounder - potentially a top 10 pick. So his name was in the public eye at draft time. Even though it was later proven that he had nothing to do with the murder, the damage was already done in regards to his draft stock.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
And Tyreek Hill was a nobody at the time of the draft. It's only now that he's blown the lid off the NFL that his past transgressions are in the public eye.

Mixon's case is much more like La'el Collins'. Collins name was in the orbit of a situation where his pregnant ex-girlfriend was murdered. It mattered to the draft because he was a first rounder - potentially a top 10 pick. So his name was in the public eye at draft time. Even though it was later proven that he had nothing to do with the murder, the damage was already done in regards to his draft stock.
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Collins would have gotten drafted but he said he wouldn't sign with a team if it wasn't in the first 2 rounds or something like that. Unless mixon does the same thing I doubt he makes it past round 3

 
As a rebuilder with some extra 2nd rd picks I may have to offer one up.....

still not a lot to overcome depth chart wise, but that offense....did min win a game without getting a TD from its def/specials? I honestly don't think so.

 
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Arodin said:
I thnk the fact that everybody and his brother touted Treadwell as an amazing prospect with the only consistent knock on him being lack of burst speed to gain separation, then watched him unable to even get on the field vs. NFL defenses....now fantasy players are nervous about the next guy with amazing ball skills and minimal separation vs. college defenders.
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Isn't it less about the lack of speed with treadwell and more about route running?

 
I watch very little college football, but i saw a lot of Ole Miss in '14-15 cuz they were in a lot of big games (too many blowouts are the major reason i dont watch NCAA). Treadwell, Tunsil, Nkemdiche all looked like men among boys in those games and all look equally awkward/unschooled in the pros. Be a while before i get interested in a Freezed product in FFB.

 
maf005 said:
Not to my memory..can you did up any articles that were really critical of his routes pre draft? 
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Here is an article about Treadwell from back in September.

This is Treadwell's former WR coach in college:

“The biggest thing is, if you’re supposed to be at 14 yards, that quarterback is expecting you to be at 14 yards every time,” Heard said. “That ball is coming out in the NFL in a hurry. It’s those little things where you can’t be at 12 and you can’t be at 16, you have to be right at 14 and you have to be there when you’re supposed to be there.”
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So this is his former coach saying he needs to work on his routes.

Sam Monson

Treadwell consistently separates far less than most of the receivers in this class. Watching his tape shows a player that relies more on his physicality than getting open in the first place, which is fine for a receiver in college that is already a team’s go-to guy, but in the NFL may result in the ball simply not being thrown his way nearly as often.
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Lance Zierlein

WEAKNESSES


 Doesn't have the cushion-­eating, vertical speed to scare cornerbacks. Cornerbacks will crowd his underneath routes from off­-man coverage. Benefitted with several easy catches in space against zone coverage. Struggled to free himself from press coverage against LSU's Tre'Davious White and may have separation issues in pros against quick cornerbacks. Takes time to gear down into breaks once he gets speed up. Could stand to be more physical in his release against press. Had more focus drops in 2015 than over previous two seasons. Suffered season-­ending injury in November of 2014 with broken fibula and dislocated ankle.
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Biabreakable said:
Here is an article about Treadwell from back in September.

This is Treadwell's former WR coach in college:

So this is his former coach saying he needs to work on his routes.

Sam Monson

Lance Zierlein
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Right. So there were some concerns about his separation/routes but nothing that would make you think a 1st round pick won't see meaningful snaps for an entire season, especially given the perceived lack of WR talent in Minnesota. I still contend Zimmer is a nut

 
What's the word on JuJu? 

The more I watch highlights, the more I like him. Then again I don't get to see the flaws in his game. Any insight? Could he be a future stud?  Im not huge on USC WRs, but I like what I see.

 
maf005 said:
Right. So there were some concerns about his separation/routes but nothing that would make you think a 1st round pick won't see meaningful snaps for an entire season, especially given the perceived lack of WR talent in Minnesota. I still contend Zimmer is a nut
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While Zimmer is a nut I don't think that had a lot to do with Treadwell getting playing time or not.

Peoples perception of the quality of WR the Vikings have is pretty skewed by recent sub standard QB and offensive line play, as well as an offense that tries to play very conservatively and run the ball, which they could not do well this season..People under estimate Diggs. Even I have been surprised with Adam Thielen who just keeps making plays. Patterson had a bit of a resurgence being more than the season before, which is the example of a WR who isn't running crisp enough routes to play in the timing based passing offense. Patterson has made some improvement but still has a lot of room for improvement. Charles Johnson is a WR who I think does well in practice but it doesn't translate to the games.

Switching to Bradford caused the Vikings to be less willing to bring in a rookie WR when their margin for error was so narrow and Treadwell not playing consistently enough for them to rely on him over more experienced and technically sound players. The main thing they were trying to avoid is turnovers and interceptions happen when receivers are not where they are supposed to be on time.

As far as him being a 1st round pick, yes you would expect a player drafted this high to do more even as a rookie than what Treadwell did.

 
Brandon Will said:
What's the word on JuJu? 

The more I watch highlights, the more I like him. Then again I don't get to see the flaws in his game. Any insight? Could he be a future stud?  Im not huge on USC WRs, but I like what I see.
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I'm curious to know his measurables given his extremely impressive breakout age. There's still a decent chance he's this class' #1 WR

 
Looking at all-star game weighin results:

WRs Cooper Kupp and Amba Etta-Tawo both came in below the 26.0 BMI cutoff, though not by much (25.77 for Kupp, 25.94 for Etta-Tawo). That is bad news for both of them, as they were both listed above the cutoff.

RB Kareem Hunt weighed in at 208, well below the 225 that he was estimated it, which moves him down my ratings.

In the other direction, WR DeAngelo Yancey, WR Taywan Taylor, and RB Elijah McGuire all weighed in heavier/thicker than estimated, which helps their ratings. Taylor was also an inch shorter than expected, but he has very long arms for his height which cancels out the downside of being shorter.

 
Brandon Will said:
What's the word on JuJu? 

The more I watch highlights, the more I like him. Then again I don't get to see the flaws in his game. Any insight? Could he be a future stud?  Im not huge on USC WRs, but I like what I see.
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I'm still a fan and to me it's honestly baffling that he isn't higher in mocks. I guess I can understand some people saying he's not a top 32 pick, but I've seen mocks that don't even have him in the top 50. I think he's comfortably a better prospect than people like Justin Hunter and Arrelious Benn who went early 2nd. If I were running a team, I can't imagine that he'd be outside my top 32 players in this draft.

I think he has a chance to be the best WR from this draft. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but the potential is there. He looks like a very high floor prospect. At worst, I think he'll be a better version of Quincy Enunwa. At best I could see him being a top 10 dynasty WR. He has a huge frame, but what I like about him is the fluidity and efficiency of his movements for a player of that size. That's why I see a bit of a parallel with DT. Neither has elite speed and neither is a phenomenal jump ball type, but they're huge and they run/cut very well for their size. 

The fact that mocks have him so low is a bit troubling to me. Am I overrating this guy or are the website pundits just missing something? I assume they get most of their info from connected people, so when they bump a guy down like this, I think it often reflects what they're hearing from the scouting community. I'd feel better about JuJu if everyone still had him as a first round pick in their mocks, but ultimately I have quite a lot of faith in my own judgment and I'm more inclined to trust my gut than to automatically defer to the consensus. That leads me to think his actual rating among teams might be higher than current mocks reflect, and that he might still end up in the top 32 come April.

Either way, it's worth pointing out that getting picked high is only one of the variables. If a guy makes it through the draft process and is selected with a first round pick, that doesn't mean you were right if you hyped him out of college, because he still has to actually perform in the NFL, and even roughly half of first rounders fail to do that. Likewise, a guy slipping a bit in the draft doesn't mean he can't still be legit. Look at Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas this past season, or Ajayi.

Personally, I think JuJu is a guy that you want on your FF teams. I already owned him in one dev league and I've recently traded for him in another. If you're a believer, the recent lack of hype has presented an opportunity to get him from owners who aren't fully committed and are getting cold feet.

 
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