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[DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, MVP, Madden Cover. Hopefully Develops as a Passer


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1 hour ago, shadyridr said:

He scored 17 in my league without a touchdown. Seems like a good floor and recipe for success fantasy wise. 

That's not his floor.  He's not going to be able to run it 20+ times per week and survive.  He's going to have to be able to be a productive passer to have any chance at being relevant, fantasy or not. After he burst out and seemed to surprise the Bengals on the first drive with 5 carries that went for and 46 yards, the Bengals adjusted and his next 22 carries (I can't believe I typed that) went for "only" 71. Again, if you consider that his floor, you're dreaming. 

He was facing a defense that had allowed over 500 yards of offense each of the last two weeks and he still accounted for no TDs and hit basically nothing but some dump offs and short curls and slants without any downfield threat whatsoever. Not saying he can't develop over time, but the Ravens didn't run a sustainable offense today and Jackson's limitations are the reason. 

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4 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

That's not his floor.  He's not going to be able to run it 20+ times per week and survive.  He's going to have to be able to be a productive passer to have any chance at being relevant, fantasy or not. After he burst out and seemed to surprise the Bengals on the first drive with 5 carries that went for and 46 yards, the Bengals adjusted and his next 22 carries (I can't believe I typed that) went for "only" 71. Again, if you consider that his floor, you're dreaming. 

He was facing a defense that had allowed over 500 yards of offense each of the last two weeks and he still accounted for no TDs and hit basically nothing but some dump offs and short curls and slants without any downfield threat whatsoever. Not saying he can't develop over time, but the Ravens didn't run a sustainable offense today and Jackson's limitations are the reason. 

It was literally his first start in a regular season game. 

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Cool, he’s polarizing why exactly? Sorry he doesn’t fit traditional NFL mold and needs a lot of refinement throwing the ball. Fantasy wise this will continue to be a good thing until he is hurt, fails to develop or fails to succeed. Until any of those three things happen I could absolutely care less how “good” he is. Give me the fantasy points and those rushing totals are going to be gold.

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Just now, reggio1 said:

It was literally his first start in a regular season game. 

Yep, and I never said he can't be more than that in the future. What's clear is that he's really far away from being ready to run a real NFL offense, and hopefully for his sake he doesn't get killed running that much while he's learning. I was responding to the notion that a game where he runs 27 times represents his floor, especially when his efficiency running took a severe hit after the first drive.

The Ravens having their supposed future franchise QB running the ball 27 times in a game is irresponsible as hell to me. He took some big shots. 

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1 minute ago, Steelers4Life said:

Yep, and I never said he can't be more than that in the future. What's clear is that he's really far away from being ready to run a real NFL offense, and hopefully for his sake he doesn't get killed running that much while he's learning. I was responding to the notion that a game where he runs 27 times represents his floor, especially when his efficiency running took a severe hit after the first drive.

The Ravens having their supposed future franchise QB running the ball 27 times in a game is irresponsible as hell to me. He took some big shots. 

Dude, you’re way off.  This was his first game ever as a starter.  He himself admitted he was super nervous and didn’t sleep last night.  Ravens coaching staff called the rt game plan for him in his first start.  He’s not going to try to run 27 times in every game.  He was a much better passer in college than a guy like Vick ever was.   You’re writing the book on Jackson after his first start.  

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1 minute ago, rickyg said:

Dude, you’re way off.  This was his first game ever as a starter.  He himself admitted he was super nervous and didn’t sleep last night.  Ravens coaching staff called the rt game plan for him in his first start.  He’s not going to try to run 27 times in every game.  He was a much better passer in college than a guy like Vick ever was.   You’re writing the book on Jackson after his first start.  

He's writing more than a book, more like the Bible. Check out his previous comments. 

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8 minutes ago, rickyg said:

Dude, you’re way off.  This was his first game ever as a starter.  He himself admitted he was super nervous and didn’t sleep last night.  Ravens coaching staff called the rt game plan for him in his first start.  He’s not going to try to run 27 times in every game.  He was a much better passer in college than a guy like Vick ever was.   You’re writing the book on Jackson after his first start.  

First, no, he wasn't way better than Vick ever was as a passer in college. Not sure how old you are or if you watched Vick back then, but no, he wasn't. There's a reason Vick was the #1 pick in the draft and Jackson was considered a bit of a reach at 32nd. Neither of them ever completed even 60% of their passes in college though.

And second, they called the only game plan he's capable of executing right now. Nothing wrong with that, and it was enough to squeak out a victory over the Bengals. When Flacco was starting, Jackson came in for only designed running plays other than some garbage time passing stats he had. And now as a starter, they had him run the ball 27 times... there's a reason for that.

I never once said he can't be more than that in the future. Maybe he will, maybe he won't, and I get that people who own the guy want to believe he'll have an immediate impact. I simply don't see a guy who'll consistently have success right now in any way unless they have him run this much every week, and that'll be a huge mistake.

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20 minutes ago, reggio1 said:

He's writing more than a book, more like the Bible. Check out his previous comments. 

Not really. He is what he is right now, and he'll either get better or he'll get killed out there. 

Today, he was exactly what I expected him to be as a raw 21 year old rookie - a runner who'll struggle to threaten a defense with his arm.  But instead of a normal 10ish carries that you'd expect from a running QB, he got 27 carries that carried his fantasy stats. And the thing is, anyone who just looked at a box score doesn't realize that he averaged barely 3 yards per carry on his last 22 rushes after the first drive...  if defenses adjust to him in future weeks like the God awful Bengals defense did, he's in for some really rough weeks if his arm doesn't get better, quick.

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5 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

Not really. He is what he is right now, and he'll either get better or he'll get killed out there. 

Today, he was exactly what I expected him to be as a raw 21 year old rookie - a runner who'll struggle to threaten a defense with his arm.  But instead of a normal 10ish carries that you'd expect from a running QB, he got 27 carries that carried his fantasy stats. And the thing is, anyone who just looked at a box score doesn't realize that he averaged barely 3 yards per carry on his last 22 rushes after the first drive...  if defenses adjust to him in future weeks like the God awful Bengals defense did, he's in for some really rough weeks if his arm doesn't get better, quick.

Sorry, not gonna read any of that. 

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5 minutes ago, reggio1 said:

Sorry, not gonna read any of that. 

That's bull####. Steelers has a strong opinion but he's backing it up with pretty good arguments, imo. Agree or disagree, that's what this forum is all about. Not one line comments trying to get in shots. 

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45 minutes ago, rickyg said:

He’s not going to try to run 27 times in every game. 

Doesn't this hint at a lower floor, which is all steelers is saying? 15 rushes would be a lot for a qb, and that would still be almost half of what he had this week. 27 is just an insane number. Maybe they'll keep it up, or maybe it was a fluke. But he definitely has a much larger downside than what we saw today. To be fair he's still got a monster upside. Throw a couple touchdowns to go with heavy scrambling? Oh lawd if it clicks quickly he's carrying us to a championship. 

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6 minutes ago, metoo said:

Why ignore the passing?

Ignoring it how? He clearly has mind blowing upside, but they might not need to pass much against Oakland next week. It might just be a dozen scrambles, a few yards passing, and whichever rb running all day. 

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8 hours ago, [scooter] said:

"He will continue to be good until he's not."

Staff member material right there!

Were talking fantasy. I’m not sure why people can’t differentiate. When Brock Osweiler has a top 5 fantasy week did you annoint him for greatness? Anyway, Waldman liked his debut: https://twitter.com/mattwaldman/status/1064344064806539271?s=21

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Jackson can be an extraordinary QB, combining passing with running.  If he learns all the nuances of control to keep himself healthy, I think he can be very good.  Kind of like Steve Young good.  Not saying he's a HOFer, but you  know what I mean.  I watched a lot of Jackson in college and he's a bad man.

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9 hours ago, Steelers4Life said:

That's not his floor.  He's not going to be able to run it 20+ times per week and survive.  He's going to have to be able to be a productive passer to have any chance at being relevant, fantasy or not. After he burst out and seemed to surprise the Bengals on the first drive with 5 carries that went for and 46 yards, the Bengals adjusted and his next 22 carries (I can't believe I typed that) went for "only" 71. Again, if you consider that his floor, you're dreaming. 

He was facing a defense that had allowed over 500 yards of offense each of the last two weeks and he still accounted for no TDs and hit basically nothing but some dump offs and short curls and slants without any downfield threat whatsoever. Not saying he can't develop over time, but the Ravens didn't run a sustainable offense today and Jackson's limitations are the reason. 

You know nothing about fantasy football if you dont think a running QB has a high floor. Tebow was essentially a QB1 for the Broncos.

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16 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

You know nothing about fantasy football if you dont think a running QB has a high floor. Tebow was essentially a QB1 for the Broncos.

I'd say that I've picked a few things up in the past 25 years, but maybe you're right and I know nothing.

I understand that running QBs have a higher floor. But his floor is not represented by a game when he runs 27 times against an awful defense. His floor is a game where he runs it maybe 10 times at an efficiency like he had AFTER the first drive yesterday and still can't get anything going in the passing game. And that's pretty damn low.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Jackson can be an extraordinary QB, combining passing with running.  If he learns all the nuances of control to keep himself healthy, I think he can be very good.  Kind of like Steve Young good.  Not saying he's a HOFer, but you  know what I mean.  I watched a lot of Jackson in college and he's a bad man.

It's a night and day difference comparing Young's passing ability coming into the NFL and Jackson's. Sky's the limit if he develops into even an average passer.

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9 hours ago, Steelers4Life said:

First, no, he wasn't way better than Vick ever was as a passer in college. Not sure how old you are or if you watched Vick back then, but no, he wasn't. There's a reason Vick was the #1 pick in the draft and Jackson was considered a bit of a reach at 32nd. Neither of them ever completed even 60% of their passes in college though.

And second, they called the only game plan he's capable of executing right now. Nothing wrong with that, and it was enough to squeak out a victory over the Bengals. When Flacco was starting, Jackson came in for only designed running plays other than some garbage time passing stats he had. And now as a starter, they had him run the ball 27 times... there's a reason for that.

I never once said he can't be more than that in the future. Maybe he will, maybe he won't, and I get that people who own the guy want to believe he'll have an immediate impact. I simply don't see a guy who'll consistently have success right now in any way unless they have him run this much every week, and that'll be a huge mistake.

Vick himself said that Lamar was a better QB than him in college and Im not sure who you listened to that said he was a reach at 32 because everything I saw had him going much higher and was a STEAL not a reach at 32.  

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20 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

I'd say that I've picked a few things up in the past 25 years, but maybe you're right and I know nothing.

I understand that running QBs have a higher floor. But his floor is not represented by a game when he runs 27 times against an awful defense. His floor is a game where he runs it maybe 10 times at an efficiency like he had AFTER the first drive yesterday and still can't get anything going in the passing game. And that's pretty damn low.

Why do you keep saying this?  He can pass the ball just fine.  I've watched enough of his games to know that he's very dangerous with his arm as well as his legs.

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Any and all honest analysis of Jackson  should take into consideration it was his first game and the script was obviously to run run run.  Of course he is more confortable running  than passing  right now.  Harbaugh and the  offensive coordinator obviously went run heavy  in his first start (which was a winning strategy btw)  Who knows what the next start brings.  I watched  Lamar his entire college carreer and quite honestly, Im more worried about his short passing game not downfield passes.  He completed 13/19  mostly short passes.  For all the hand wringing about his passing percentages in college  nobody has said a peep about his 68% passing  in his first start ever in the pros.  Lamar will hav e better outings than this....he will also have worse outings.  Id bet to the people who count and know more about these things than you or I, his coachs,  they are happy about his first outing as a pro. 

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7 minutes ago, da_budman said:

Any and all honest analysis of Jackson  should take into consideration it was his first game and the script was obviously to run run run.  Of course he is more confortable running  than passing  right now.  Harbaugh and the  offensive coordinator obviously went run heavy  in his first start (which was a winning strategy btw)  Who knows what the next start brings.  I watched  Lamar his entire college carreer and quite honestly, Im more worried about his short passing game not downfield passes.  He completed 13/19  mostly short passes.  For all the hand wringing about his passing percentages in college  nobody has said a peep about his 68% passing  in his first start ever in the pros.  Lamar will hav e better outings than this....he will also have worse outings.  Id bet to the people who count and know more about these things than you or I, his coachs,  they are happy about his first outing as a pro. 

I think the fantasy posters that are so negative toward Jackson are those that took Josh Rosen, Kalen Ballage, Hayden Hurst, or DJ Chark over Jackson in the 2nd round of their dynasty rookie drafts :)

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3 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:
11 hours ago, [scooter] said:

"He will continue to be good until he's not."

Staff member material right there!

Were talking fantasy. I’m not sure why people can’t differentiate. When Brock Osweiler has a top 5 fantasy week did you annoint him for greatness?

Of course not. It's dumb to assume that a player will continue to put up large fantasy numbers, based solely on his performance in one game.

Which is what you did with Jackson.

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13 hours ago, Steelers4Life said:

He was facing a defense that had allowed over 500 yards of offense each of the last two weeks and he still accounted for no TDs and hit basically nothing but some dump offs and short curls and slants without any downfield threat whatsoever. Not saying he can't develop over time, but the Ravens didn't run a sustainable offense today and Jackson's limitations are the reason. 

Come on man.  You're doing a good job of acting like you're objective, but sentences like this really expose your bias.  Didn't account for any TDs?  He didn't score, but the threat of his running absolutely opened it up  for the RBs, where Gus Edwards ran for nearly 7ypc on 17 carries.  On the Collins TD he had half the defense waiting to see if he was gonna run it before he handed it off and Collins got the corner.  He had the 1 INT but he was pretty accurate besides.  He definitely looks like a QB in the pocket; the Tebow talk of some is crazy.  I agree the offense they ran on Sunday is unsustainable though. 

 

ETA:  Not to mention that the offenses that hung 500+ on Cincy the last 3 weeks are 1, 3 and 4 in the NFL in yds/game. 

Edited by cockroach
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5 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Of course not. It's dumb to assume that a player will continue to put up large fantasy numbers, based solely on his performance in one game.

Which is what you did with Jackson.

I think it's safe to say that Jackson's running totals will be pretty substantial in any game he plays.  He didn't even put up "large fantasy numbers" in this game.  He was like QB9 or 10 this week?  But if he scores 1 TD he's top 5 territory.

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1 hour ago, [scooter] said:

Of course not. It's dumb to assume that a player will continue to put up large fantasy numbers, based solely on his performance in one game.

Which is what you did with Jackson.

Volume = points... I would reasses your ability to seperate emotion in evaluating a player you clearly don’t care for. If he’s getting 12-15 carries a game he’s way more valuable than most QB’s on that alone. I don’t think you’re very good at this.

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19 minutes ago, oswizzle said:

Garbage QB ....cool gadget player....Does he have a speech problem? He sounds funny.... 13 on the Wonderlic is pretty low

Once again... who cares? What other QB is going to get used like him? Especially if you’re talking 4 pt passing TD vs 6 pt rushing TD.You all are some kind of oblivious as to how math works. His actual QB talent means absolutely zero. His running skill set is all that matters for him to have significant fantasy value whether the arm chair scouts love it or not.

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2 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:
1 hour ago, [scooter] said:

Of course not. It's dumb to assume that a player will continue to put up large fantasy numbers, based solely on his performance in one game.

Which is what you did with Jackson.

Volume = points... I would reasses your ability to seperate emotion in evaluating a player you clearly don’t care for. If he’s getting 12-15 carries a game he’s way more valuable than most QB’s on that alone. I don’t think you’re very good at this.

Your sole contribution to this thread was boldly proclaiming that a player will continue to put up fantasy numbers unless he fails.

 

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1 minute ago, Bojang0301 said:
2 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Your sole contribution to this thread was boldly proclaiming that a player will continue to put up fantasy numbers unless he fails.

Yes because that’s how volume works... you haven’t been doing this very long have you?

"Player X will continue to score lots of fantasy points until he fails to succeed in scoring lots of fantasy points."

It's an absolutely meaningless statement that provides exactly zero insight. If you were a staff member of Footballguys, you'd immediately be fired and then hired by CBS Sportsline.

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Dynasty, trade him in a few weeks, rip off whoever wants him. He will peak in a couple of weeks. How quickly people forget Tim Tebow and Vince Young. Two other guys who could run but completely sucked at passing the ball. I'll include Kaepernink as well cause he sucked at passing.

I remember when Tebow lucked into the win vs PIT in the playoffs. Everyone was flying into the Tebow thread saying, look at him go, he's gonna be a great one, etc. Horrible defensive gameplan by PITT as usual come playoff time. Then he went up against Belicheck who dismantled him for good. It was the end for the Tebow. This guy will meet the same fate when he goes up against well coached defenses. He will have no chance.

Owner of Mayfield in the 2nd round btw. A real NFL QB.

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17 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

"Player X will continue to score lots of fantasy points until he fails to succeed in scoring lots of fantasy points."

It's an absolutely meaningless statement that provides exactly zero insight. If you were a staff member of Footballguys, you'd immediately be fired and then hired by CBS Sportsline.

It’s not him failing to score fantasy points. What are you failing to read here? It’s failing to succeed as an NFL QB. He’s a top 10 fantasy QB if he starts. If the team thinks they are failing to win with him or failing to develop him into an actual NFL QB (which he will have to do) then he gets benched. They invested a first. There is probably a long leash of the remaining season plus next year. But go on, freak out because he looks like a subpar passer right now... it does not matter. I don’t even know what the #### you’re arguing? That you don’t think he’ll be a top half fantasy option as a starter?... he’ll get that with his rushing opportunity alone, which is what I repeatedly continue to say. Do you really not understand how this works? If player A gets 40 passing attempts and player B gets 20 passing attempts and 20 rushing attempts, player B stands a higher probability for FANTASY success. 

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43 minutes ago, oswizzle said:

Garbage QB ....cool gadget player....Does he have a speech problem? He sounds funny.... 13 on the Wonderlic is pretty low

Meh.

Dan Marino had a 16, Jim Kelly and Terry Bradshaw both got 15, while Johnny Manziel scored a 32.

http://wonderlictestsample.com/nfl-wonderlic-scores/

Wonderlic scores are an interesting curiosity, but their predictive value for NFL success has not been that great.

 

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41 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Dynasty, trade him in a few weeks, rip off whoever wants him. He will peak in a couple of weeks. How quickly people forget Tim Tebow and Vince Young. Two other guys who could run but completely sucked at passing the ball. I'll include Kaepernink as well cause he sucked at passing.

I remember when Tebow lucked into the win vs PIT in the playoffs. Everyone was flying into the Tebow thread saying, look at him go, he's gonna be a great one, etc. Horrible defensive gameplan by PITT as usual come playoff time. Then he went up against Belicheck who dismantled him for good. It was the end for the Tebow. This guy will meet the same fate when he goes up against well coached defenses. He will have no chance.

Owner of Mayfield in the 2nd round btw. A real NFL QB.

Bad comparison.  Very bad comparison.

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36 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

It’s not him failing to score fantasy points. What are you failing to read here? It’s failing to succeed as an NFL QB. He’s a top 10 fantasy QB if he starts. If the team thinks they are failing to win with him or failing to develop him into an actual NFL QB (which he will have to do) then he gets benched. They invested a first. There is probably a long leash of the remaining season plus next year. But go on, freak out because he looks like a subpar passer right now... it does not matter. I don’t even know what the #### you’re arguing? That you don’t think he’ll be a top half fantasy option as a starter?... he’ll get that with his rushing opportunity alone, which is what I repeatedly continue to say. Do you really not understand how this works? If player A gets 40 passing attempts and player B gets 20 passing attempts and 20 rushing attempts, player B stands a higher probability for FANTASY success. 

I totally get your point. Tebow was recently thrown around in this thread and while he is almost  an exaggeration as an example he is the worst passing QB I've seen in the NFL and he was putting up solid fantasy stats before his lack of ability led to job loss.

But one thought I've been having is with increased QB stats due to increased passing stats is a guy like Lamar Jackson less valuable in relation to the QB market as he'd have been a few years ago? I think so but to what degree I'm not sure.

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