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[DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, MVP, Madden Cover. Hopefully Develops as a Passer


massraider

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I have Jackson in one Superflex dynasty league. Starting Rivers and Rodgers over him this week.

He scored 19.2 points in that league last week, which ranked him as QB #16. The rushing production is nice for his floor, but TDs matter. I have to see more before starting him over the other two.

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1 hour ago, shadyridr said:

He's sitting on waivers and very tempted to pick him up but already own Watson and Winston. Starting Winston this week and don't want to roster 3 QBs 

I don't either... with Wentz and Watson. Not dropping either one of these guys. I just think L Jackson has higher upside and a decent floor. Means I would have to drop Ridley though. 

Roster 3 QB's - ouch! May have to rethink this. Can't drop Doyle with Gronk iffy either. Rostering two Defenses in BAL and LAR. Not dropping the Rams either.

Lamar Jackson - just seems like a very good play this week

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4 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

I don't either... with Wentz and Watson. Not dropping either one of these guys. I just think L Jackson has higher upside and a decent floor. Means I would have to drop Ridley though. 

Roster 3 QB's - ouch! May have to rethink this. Can't drop Doyle with Gronk iffy either. Rostering two Defenses in BAL and LAR. Not dropping the Rams either.

Lamar Jackson - just seems like a very good play this week

He does but so does Wentz so I wouldn't drop any of the guys you mentioned.

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Longtime Ravens fan here. I thought Lamar Jackson had a very good debut as an all-around NFL QB. Here's why:

With 5:45 seconds left in the third quarter, the Ravens were down by eight points after giving away the lead. As a Ravens fan, this is not the spot you want to be in, as the offence the last few weeks under Flacco has been completely unreliable. I was very worried.

From this point in the game, the Ravens would have 3 more possessions of the football, not including their final drive which was three consecutive kneel downs by Jackson (which should be considered when looking at his rushing stats BTW). 

These three crucial drives went like this:

  1. A nearly five minute long TD drive, plus a 2pt conversion to tie
  2. A 6 minute, 45 second FG drive to take the lead
  3. A three-and-out that would have been a first down to essentially ice the game, except Ronnie Stanley took the absolute worst penalty in football when he forgot to put his hand up and wave at the ref before the snap

On these three critical drives, Jackson was 4/5 for 57 yards. Once they needed to open up the game plan and actually let him throw the ball, he was very efficient, including two HUGE third down passes of 19 and 7 yards on the second drive. 

He also rushed 11 times for 39 yards on these drives. The rushing stats are nuanced too, as his ability to hold the football and move it steadily allowed the Ravens to completely control the clock (Total TOP was 38.09 to 21.51 for the Ravens).

More importantly, Jackson's threat as a runner opened huge holes for Gus Edwards. They made the brilliant coaching decision of letting Edwards loose for the first time, because they knew his aggressive, downhill running style would take advantage of linebackers and safeties who were frozen by the Ravens option plays (including RPOs, read options, and old style college options). On the two scoring drives, the LBs were stuck in mud because they were spying Jackson, and Edwards gashed them for it. 

In short, the Ravens wanted to control the clock by running relentlessly, and throw the ball when they were forced to. They did exactly that, and Jackson executed the gameplay well. I'm optimistic going forward. 

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Quote

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. ET)

Key matchup: Can the Raiders defend Lamar Jackson's speed?

In a game-script that is almost unheard of in the modern NFL, Baltimore called just 19 pass attempts on 73 plays in Lamar Jackson's first start. The Ravens went 74 percent run-heavy! For reference, the league has been about 60 percent pass-heavy this season. In general, Jackson did not do much on his passes (150, 1 INT, 70.1 passer rating), but he turned his enormous 27 carries into 117 yards on the ground. Per Next Gen Stats, Jackson reached 15-plus MPH on 14 rush attempts while no other player has hit 15-plus MPH on more than nine rush attempts in any game this season:

Lamar Jackson reached 15+ MPH on 14 rush attempts in his first career NFL start. No other player has reached 15+ MPH on more than 9 rush attempts in any game this season.#CINvsBAL #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/vVOofcSy1q

��� Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 18, 2018
Not only is the slowest defense in the NFL ill-equipped to deal with Jackson's speed, but the flashy rookie also showed a little promise when throwing from a clean pocket in his debut last week. Per Next Gen Stats, Jackson averaged a robust 9.4 YPA when he was not pressured in his debut. No team pressures the quarterback less often than the Raiders (16.5 percent).

Graham Barfield @ NFL.com

 

Locked & loaded.

Edited by Krilons Resa
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17 minutes ago, kutta said:

I’m putting him in in all four leagues. Over Rodgers in two of them. I may swap him out for Winston in one league but for now, it’s the Lamar show.

I would love to see him have a great passing day.  Last week wasn’t bad, but I want to see him throw a few TDs.

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50 minutes ago, TimmyG said:

Such a juicy matchup today. 

Would y’all start Jackson or Ben in a 6 pt passing league? Need a high ceiling after going against Amari Cooper. 

I am in same boat but 4pt passing. I have flipped flopped several times and still don't know what I will do. I need a high floor and Jackson offers just that with his running. Road Ben in Denver scares me....i am leaning Lamar because of that but Ben still in there at the moment. Godspeed 

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54 minutes ago, starks said:

I am in same boat but 4pt passing. I have flipped flopped several times and still don't know what I will do. I need a high floor and Jackson offers just that with his running. Road Ben in Denver scares me....i am leaning Lamar because of that but Ben still in there at the moment. Godspeed 

I have both players and last week I went back and forth forever. I took the ball out of Ben's hands a couple years ago in the playoffs and it cost me a "ship" I rolled with Big Ben last week and for the 1st half I was not in a good mood at all, however, Ben pulled it out and outscored Lamar.  I did not need a high floor and made what I considered the safer pick. Today my division is on the line and most likely clinching a bye in the playoffs after Thursday's games I'm in the same boat not needing a high floor ironically playing the same team as before in the playoffs where I benched Ben for Rivers in the playoff game. I lost that game by less than . 5 points by getting cute.  I'm rolling with Ben based off the weapons he has at his disposal and I think the game in Denver could be a higher scoring game. I also see the Ravens and Raiders game and think both teams want to win this game on the ground or short passing game and my gut says this could be a lower scoring game that said my feeling is that Ben and Lamar will be close and when it's like that I go with the guy with the bigger weapons. Lamar is going to have that huge game at some point this season and this could be the week tough call but I'll go with Ben's arm over Lamar's legs. Good Luck in your decision.  I'm going to check what Vegas thinks just to be curious sometimes that helps me make decisions based on what Vegas thinks on the over/under. Like to know what Vegas thinks on the game script not always correct but another tool to help make calls between players.

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1 hour ago, starks said:

I am in same boat but 4pt passing. I have flipped flopped several times and still don't know what I will do. I need a high floor and Jackson offers just that with his running. Road Ben in Denver scares me....i am leaning Lamar because of that but Ben still in there at the moment. Godspeed 

Same predicament. Also going against Ben in an elimination game that would knock me out of the playoffs. So may roll Lamar and hope road Ben shows up.

My gut says to start Ben, but my hope says that he does poorly and Lamar succeeds.

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6 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

Same predicament. Also going against Ben in an elimination game that would knock me out of the playoffs. So may roll Lamar and hope road Ben shows up.

My gut says to start Ben, but my hope says that he does poorly and Lamar succeeds.

My hope is they both play well and then the decision was moot.

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12 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

I'm so tempted.

It's either Lamar or R. Wilson. 

I have these two as well.

Russell has been the model citizen of prett good floor, not too high of a ceiling. 

I don’t see this game being a shootout, and with Cam lacking some weapons Russell may not be in comeback mode.

Already behind the 8 ball and need upside so I’m rolling Lamar.

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48 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

I have both players and last week I went back and forth forever. I took the ball out of Ben's hands a couple years ago in the playoffs and it cost me a "ship" I rolled with Big Ben last week and for the 1st half I was not in a good mood at all, however, Ben pulled it out and outscored Lamar.  I did not need a high floor and made what I considered the safer pick. Today my division is on the line and most likely clinching a bye in the playoffs after Thursday's games I'm in the same boat not needing a high floor ironically playing the same team as before in the playoffs where I benched Ben for Rivers in the playoff game. I lost that game by less than . 5 points by getting cute.  I'm rolling with Ben based off the weapons he has at his disposal and I think the game in Denver could be a higher scoring game. I also see the Ravens and Raiders game and think both teams want to win this game on the ground or short passing game and my gut says this could be a lower scoring game that said my feeling is that Ben and Lamar will be close and when it's like that I go with the guy with the bigger weapons. Lamar is going to have that huge game at some point this season and this could be the week tough call but I'll go with Ben's arm over Lamar's legs. Good Luck in your decision.  I'm going to check what Vegas thinks just to be curious sometimes that helps me make decisions based on what Vegas thinks on the over/under. Like to know what Vegas thinks on the game script not always correct but another tool to help make calls between players.

I'm rolling with Lamar over Ben and Philip in one league and Lamar over Wentz and Watson in another. Crazy, perhaps, perhaps not.

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Lamar Jackson ROS?

He passed the first two tests.

1) Started a game - got thrown into the wolves and came out alive

2) Won a game.

Deduction - another W and a good game, what's not to like moving forward? What would ownership or coach be scared about starting him? Basically, which QB gives them the best chance to win, or go with the young stud?

Edited by Team Smokin'
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1 hour ago, Team Smokin' said:

I'm rolling with Lamar over Ben and Philip in one league and Lamar over Wentz and Watson in another. Crazy, perhaps, perhaps not.

It's not crazy and really don't see a lot of difference in what they will score at the end of the day.  Vegas has the Raven game at 42.5 and the Steeler game at 47.5 so Vegas has about a touchdown difference in the over/under. I think you will be good going with Lamar over Ben if that is the direction you go. In my scoring, I think it will somewhere between 20- 25 between both players. Nice problem to have.

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10 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

A lot less is still 15-20 rushes. Plus, it's OAK, what a time to shine.

 

2 minutes ago, The General said:

Yeah. Perfect start for a QB, almost too perfect :lol:

I’ll be super happy with 40 yards rushing and 2 TD’s

I think 40 yards rushing would be his low floor and passing TD's 1 floor, yardage passing 150. How many points is that? 13 or so? Upside is double that.

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Just now, VikingFrog said:

This has boom or bust written all over it today... but I need a boom.

Where are you going to get it? How many QB's will be an automatic 15-20? Lamar has just as good of a chance as anyone?

I really can't see Lamar ending up with less than 15 points today, and again decent day 20, good day 25, and great day 30+. It's a wide range. Last week Wentz and Big Ben let us down. Unless it's a Luck, Winston, or Newton...

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3 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

I'm so tempted.

It's either Lamar or R. Wilson. 

Same choice here in one of my league. Right now I have Lamar in there because it feels like a higher ceiling, although there's plenty of time for me to talk myself out of it. Not a must-win for me, though, so your mileage may vary.

Sticking with DeShaun in my other league, where I do need the win. I realize that shouldn't matter, but I've found there's nothing worse than losing a season because I got too clever.

Edited by smcindoe
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3 minutes ago, smcindoe said:

Same choice here in one of my league. Right now I have Lamar in there because it feels like a higher ceiling, although there's plenty of time for me to talk myself out of it. Not a must-win for me, though, so your mileage may vary.

Sticking with DeShaun in my other league, where I do need the win. I realize that shouldn't matter, but I've found there's nothing worse than losing a season because I got too clever.

Sticking with Wilson.

My opponent is starting D. Baldwin and I'm projected to win. Don't want to start Lamar, see him bust, and Baldwin hit his ceiling.

If Lamar plays great...great. Will prove useful down the stretch.

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On 11/22/2018 at 10:40 AM, Just Win Baby said:

I have Jackson in one Superflex dynasty league. Starting Rivers and Rodgers over him this week.

He scored 19.2 points in that league last week, which ranked him as QB #16. The rushing production is nice for his floor, but TDs matter. I have to see more before starting him over the other two.

I changed my mind and will start Jackson over Rivers.

Jackson's floor in this matchup should be something like 80 yards rushing and 150 yards passing. My league is non-PPR but gives 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving and 6 points for all TDs. So his floor with 0 TDs is probably 16 points or so. Since week 6, the Chargers haven't needed a lot from Rivers, and he has averaged 21.2 ppg over that stretch. So just 1 TD of any kind for Jackson puts him roughly even with what might be expected from Rivers. 2 TDs of any kind, and he probably outscores Rivers.

If Gordon was sitting out, I would think odds would be much higher for Rivers to pass for 300/3, in which case I would start him over Jackson. But Gordon is playing, so I'm going with Jackson.

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44 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Where are you going to get it? How many QB's will be an automatic 15-20? Lamar has just as good of a chance as anyone?

I really can't see Lamar ending up with less than 15 points today, and again decent day 20, good day 25, and great day 30+. It's a wide range. Last week Wentz and Big Ben let us down. Unless it's a Luck, Winston, or Newton...

Big Ben let us down?  He had a rough start, but lit up the second half for a pretty decent day.

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22 minutes ago, The General said:

Was worried about this. Figure they’ll revert back to him running some if they are still down in 2nd half. Worst case is they score rushing the ball from the RB’s.

Yeah. Still lots of time for him to put a game together, but this is why all the talk of him having a high floor didn't make sense. He's a rookie in his second game, the idea that there's no way he could have a bad game was silly.

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2 minutes ago, smcindoe said:

Yeah. Still lots of time for him to put a game together, but this is why all the talk of him having a high floor didn't make sense. He's a rookie in his second game, the idea that there's no way he could have a bad game was silly.

Yup. Not him playing bad just not having him run a bunch. 

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