fightingillini
Footballguy
If you have the #1, it's either Lamar or CMC in a superflex.He'd have to be #1, right? Who would go over Jackson in a superflex?
If you have the #1, it's either Lamar or CMC in a superflex.He'd have to be #1, right? Who would go over Jackson in a superflex?
Mahomes is still in the conversation for 1.01.If you have the #1, it's either Lamar or CMC in a superflex.
How are they going to do that? They don’t run the option with Lamar out on the wing defenseless very often.Mahomes is still in the conversation for 1.01.
My board currently goes.
Mahomes
Jackson
Watson
Barkley
CMC
I think you an make a great argument for Watson over him too. Watson is more proven... and when Lamar gets hurt taking stupid, unnecessary hits we are all going to say "we saw that coming."
Our collective recency bias blinds us to that last sentence though.
I predict what happens next is: to counter Jackson, NFL defensive coordinators try to adapt the strategy that used to be great at discouraging the old school triple option at the NFL level. That strategy was "we're going to force the pitch, and by the way we will legally and absolutely destroy your QB every time we can. We'll bet we are willing to sacrifice the big run more times than you will allow your QB to get decleated."
Excellent question, haha. I meant they have to find a new way to implement that old concept of punishing the QB for running in traffic too much.How are they going to do that? They don’t run the option with Lamar out on the wing defenseless very often.
Then he will destroy that defense with his armMahomes is still in the conversation for 1.01.
My board currently goes.
Mahomes
Jackson
Watson
Barkley
CMC
I think you an make a great argument for Watson over him too. Watson is more proven... and when Lamar gets hurt taking stupid, unnecessary hits we are all going to say "we saw that coming."
Our collective recency bias blinds us to that last sentence though.
I predict what happens next is: to counter Jackson, NFL defensive coordinators try to adapt the strategy that used to be great at discouraging the old school triple option at the NFL level. That strategy was "we're going to force the pitch, and by the way we will legally and absolutely destroy your QB every time we can. We'll bet we are willing to sacrifice the big run more times than you will allow your QB to get decleated."
Indeed. Running QBs who are smart and can pass like Lamar are a precious treasure.Then he will destroy that defense with his arm
Yeah, you should have taken Saquon Barkley instead! Yeah! Or, uh, Todd Gurley! Alvin Kamara! Tyreek Hill!I get why many will see Jackson as a 1st round pick next year in fantasy, but how many times have we seen this before? A QB has a monster year and is taken very early in drafts the following season...and doesn't live up to that draft spot. It happens every time. It happened with Cam Newton. It happened this year with Patrick Mahomes. And it will likely happen next year with Lamar Jackson.
Daunte Culpepper, RGIII, Mike Vick (Eagles), Kordell Stewart.A QB has a monster year and is taken very early in drafts the following season...and doesn't live up to that draft spot. It happens every time.
Really tough question with several dimensions.So, assuming the season stopped right now and we were transported to the 2020 season - 12 team superflex redraft..........how many picks before you'd take Jackson? And who would those picks be?
Superflex? No one.So, assuming the season stopped right now and we were transported to the 2020 season - 12 team superflex redraft..........how many picks before you'd take Jackson? And who would those picks be?
I understand that he is the number 1 or 2 player in 2019. That doesn't mean that he will be the number 1 or 2 player in 2020. As I stated before, NFL history is loaded with quarterbacks who had monster, historically great seasons, and then came back to earth the following season. Now, with Jackson's skill set, he could certainly be the outlier and it wouldn't surprise me at all, and with his ceiling I get why many will view him as one of the first picks in next year's draft. I am just throwing out a little caution and a reminder that history is not on his side. Did you see that hit he took on the run the other night when he broke Vick's record? More hits like that are likely and it is much tougher for a QB who runs a lot to stay healthy than a pure pocket passer, as the running lends itself to getting hit. Many thought Mahomes was going to duplicate this year what he did last year and he has not come close.Yeah, you should have taken Saquon Barkley instead! Yeah! Or, uh, Todd Gurley! Alvin Kamara! Tyreek Hill!
Jackson right now is very clearly a top-5 fantasy player. In 2019 he's #1 or #2.
But isn't that what everyone said about Mahomes in this year's drafts?Gonna be hard passing on him in drafts next year. He may be the rare unicorn QB worthy of a 1st round pick.
I totally disagree with this in a 12 team SUPERFLEX league. Jackson is so much more valuable in a superflex. In a superflex league, you need 3 solid QBs, and only half the league will possess that. QBs will fly off the board in a way similar to RBs in a typical start 1QB league.Really tough question with several dimensions.
Working against Lamar:
- Supply and Demand. The QB spot is just so much easier to replace than the RB or WR spot.
Well yeah in superflex, he’s a top 2 lock.I totally disagree with this in a 12 team SUPERFLEX league. Jackson is so much more valuable in a superflex. In a superflex league, you need 3 solid QBs, and only half the league will possess that. QBs will fly off the board in a way similar to RBs in a typical start 1QB league.
Say you have the 1.1 in a superflex and passed on Jackson and take CMC. Nothing wrong with that. But your next two picks at 24-25 almost HAVE to be QBs, since by pick 48, probably most (if not all) of the decent starting QBs will be off the board. With the 1.1, I would definitely consider taking Jackson 1.1 and taking the two best players available at 24-25. Gives me more flexibility.
To answer the question Uruk-Hai asked......I would never let Jackson slide past 1.02 in a superflex league. And the only player that I MAY take before Jackson is CMC (if the league is a PPR league). You could make an argument for Mahomes over Jackson, but I like Jackson's upside more.
In start 1 QB leagues, it's much more of a fascinating question. Jackson will go in the late 1st round in many leagues. Personally, I wouldn't take Jackson until the early-mid 2nd round (if I even do that).
Mahomes was more worthy of his draft spot than any of the other players I listed. He's still top-5 on a PPG basis unlike the other players taken near the top of the draft. According to MFL Mahomes ADP was #16. (#16!) At least half the people ahead of him were worse picks than he was.I understand that he is the number 1 or 2 player in 2019. That doesn't mean that he will be the number 1 or 2 player in 2020. As I stated before, NFL history is loaded with quarterbacks who had monster, historically great seasons, and then came back to earth the following season. Now, with Jackson's skill set, he could certainly be the outlier and it wouldn't surprise me at all, and with his ceiling I get why many will view him as one of the first picks in next year's draft. I am just throwing out a little caution and a reminder that history is not on his side. Did you see that hit he took on the run the other night when he broke Vick's record? More hits like that are likely and it is much tougher for a QB who runs a lot to stay healthy than a pure pocket passer, as the running lends itself to getting hit. Many thought Mahomes was going to duplicate this year what he did last year and he has not come close.
True but middle QB1 isn’t nearly as valuable as a low end RB1. Mahomes VBD this year wont end up that impressive.Mahomes was more worthy of his draft spot than any of the other players I listed. He's still top-5 on a PPG basis unlike the other players taken near the top of the draft. According to MFL Mahomes ADP was #16. (#16!) At least half the people ahead of him were worse picks than he was.
Top QBs are actually more reliable than top RBs or WRs, with very few exceptions.
Mahomes missed a game and most of another. On a per-game basis his VBD will be top-20.True but middle QB1 isn’t nearly as valuable as a low end RB1. Mahomes VBD this year wont end up that impressive.
2007 Manning ADP 1.10. Finished as QB3.I get why many will see Jackson as a 1st round pick next year in fantasy, but how many times have we seen this before? A QB has a monster year and is taken very early in drafts the following season...and doesn't live up to that draft spot. It happens every time. It happened with Cam Newton. It happened this year with Patrick Mahomes. And it will likely happen next year with Lamar Jackson.
Divorce Lamar?Divorce Lamar from this- what is the minimum QB production you consider acceptable in a given week?
I take my commitments seriously friend.Divorce Lamar from this- what is the minimum QB production you consider acceptable in a given week?
He almost singlehandedly got me to the finals in two leagues.How many championships were won or lost on Thursday with Lamar's 5 TD game? Count me as a loss!
I had Lamar and still lost. That's not easy to do.DirtyCashDylan said:How many championships were won or lost on Thursday with Lamar's 5 TD game? Count me as a loss!
dittoTwenty-Four Eighty-Four said:He almost singlehandedly got me to the finals in two leagues.
If Brees goes off tonight (32+) , you’ll have company.I had Lamar and still lost. That's not easy to do.
I had Lamar, went 6-7, snuck into the playoffs and now I'm onto the Championship. I felt dumb almost not making the playoffs because one Podcast I listen to was laughing about how they couldn't imagine a team with Lamar missing the playoffs.I had Lamar and still lost. That's not easy to do.
I had Lamar and still lost. That's not easy to do.
We can cry on each other’s shoulder.Andrew74 said:If Brees goes off tonight (32+) , you’ll have company.
me too. plus NE defense.I had Lamar and still lost. That's not easy to do.
As with everything, your mileage may vary. It really depends on the number of starters your league has, how many teams, and what the scoring rules are. But that applies to just about every roster design situation.I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally.
Very true, and I should have caveated.As with everything, your mileage may vary. It really depends on the number of starters your league has, how many teams, and what the scoring rules are. But that applies to just about every roster design situation.
Lamar Jackson completed 20-of-31 passes for 238 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Ravens' 31-15, Week 16 win over the Browns.
Jackson added 103 scoreless yards on the ground. He put together another largely brilliant performance, demonstrating his usual electric rushing ability along with underrated skills to dice up defenses from the pocket. Both of his touchdown passes to Mark Andrews were well placed dimes, while the score to Mark Ingram was more of a coverage bust. It’s tough to imagine a scenario where Jackson won’t be named the 2019 NFL MVP. Putting average draft position into consideration, Jackson is easily fantasy football’s MVP.
My only rebuttal to this is that good QBs are available later. For example in our FBG league, I didn’t touch QB until round 5 and ended up with Stafford, Dak and Jimmy G. I was great at QB. My issue was the 2 of the WRs I loaded up on early were hurt most of the year (Thielen and Adams) and my RB shots of Sony and Montgomery were total whiffs.Regarding the Superflex question. The points to the contrary notwithstanding about his running style leaving him available to be injured (that hit against the Jets was a lot bigger and harder than people made it out to be during he telecast -- he might have been leveled and the mic pop it generated certainly reverberated) I can't imagine my own personal self running up to the podium with 1.1 and having anybody's name other than Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes on it. And then I'm grabbing Winston on the turn and everybody's head can go explode (not so much with Jameis after this year, but you all get what I'm saying).
I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally.
I hear what you're saying and think of your draft as contra to prevailing wisdom. I think that was a specific league with specific draft tendencies and you likely weren't getting Jimmy, Dak, and Stafford that late in many other drafts according to those league specifications. So it's really a situation where you, in that instance, read the draft exceptionally well and were able to pull those QBs late. I don't think that would happen again if we did it again. I think your point/joke last week or so about the scrap heap of QBs so eagerly awaited with open arms in a Superflex is a good one that speaks to the level of the league's specs when paralleled with real football. IOW, how close are the important positions, and how are they reflected in scoring in FF?My only rebuttal to this is that good QBs are available later. For example in our FBG league, I didn’t touch QB until round 5 and ended up with Stafford, Dak and Jimmy G. I was great at QB. My issue was the 2 of the WRs I loaded up on early were hurt most of the year (Thielen and Adams) and my RB shots of Sony and Montgomery were total whiffs.
Did a little more research on this - Lamar's passer rating over the last 8 games is 130.9. I've found only 3 other QBs who ever put up a QB rating of more than 130 during any 8-game stretch.Lamar has now played 8 games after the season changing game at Seattle, which makes it easy to extrapolate his stats since then for a full 16-game season
Only 2950 yards passing. But 50 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 130 passer rating which would be the highest ever. Plus 1260 yards rushing and 8 more TDs.
I don't think this was ever a "big storyline," it was just pointed out that the Chargers were the only team to face him twice last year, and they played him much better the second time.Remember last year when the big storyline was that defenses had a big advantage the second time they faced Lamar?