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[DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, MVP, Madden Cover. Hopefully Develops as a Passer


massraider

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Regarding the Superflex question. The points to the contrary notwithstanding about his running style leaving him available to be injured (that hit against the Jets was a lot bigger and harder than people made it out to be during he telecast -- he might have been leveled and the mic pop it generated certainly reverberated) I can't imagine my own personal self running up to the podium with 1.1 and having anybody's name other than Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes on it. And then I'm grabbing Winston on the turn and everybody's head can go explode (not so much with Jameis after this year, but you all get what I'm saying).  

I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally. 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally. 

As with everything, your mileage may vary.  It really depends on the number of starters your league has, how many teams, and what the scoring rules are.  But that applies to just about every roster design situation.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

As with everything, your mileage may vary.  It really depends on the number of starters your league has, how many teams, and what the scoring rules are.  But that applies to just about every roster design situation.

Very true, and I should have caveated. 

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Buddy of mine is Pats fan, during the 2018 draft I was terrified the Pats were gonna draft Lamar. Buddy we making the "better athlete than QB" statements that seem laughable now. 

On the same day that Lamar sets Ravens TD pass record, and also sets record for most TD passes in season by ANY Heisman winner ever, with one game left, I am currently smoking Pats friend in finals, who a few weeks ago was still making the dumb "if he develops as a passer, he'll be scary, derp derp derp" comments we still read here. 

Sweet sweet Christmas week. 

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Lamar Jackson completed 20-of-31 passes for 238 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Ravens' 31-15, Week 16 win over the Browns.

Jackson added 103 scoreless yards on the ground. He put together another largely brilliant performance, demonstrating his usual electric rushing ability along with underrated skills to dice up defenses from the pocket. Both of his touchdown passes to Mark Andrews were well placed dimes, while the score to Mark Ingram was more of a coverage bust. It’s tough to imagine a scenario where Jackson won’t be named the 2019 NFL MVP. Putting average draft position into consideration, Jackson is easily fantasy football’s MVP.

 

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On 12/17/2019 at 1:18 PM, rockaction said:

Regarding the Superflex question. The points to the contrary notwithstanding about his running style leaving him available to be injured (that hit against the Jets was a lot bigger and harder than people made it out to be during he telecast -- he might have been leveled and the mic pop it generated certainly reverberated) I can't imagine my own personal self running up to the podium with 1.1 and having anybody's name other than Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes on it. And then I'm grabbing Winston on the turn and everybody's head can go explode (not so much with Jameis after this year, but you all get what I'm saying).  

I think I learned firsthand this year how swimming upstream you are with poor quarterbacking in a Superflex, and how you must have three, however friendly the league is. It can't really be stressed enough. It's like pounding RB-RB into the first two rounds of standard a while back. There'd better be a really darn good reason to jump over a good QB. To wit: Jameis and Brees just teamed up to beat M. Thomas and McCaffrey in one of note to me personally. 

My only rebuttal to this is that good QBs are available later. For example in our FBG league, I didn’t touch QB until round 5 and ended up with Stafford, Dak and Jimmy G. I was great at QB. My issue was the 2 of the WRs I loaded up on early were hurt most of the year (Thielen and Adams) and my RB shots of Sony and Montgomery were total whiffs. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

My only rebuttal to this is that good QBs are available later. For example in our FBG league, I didn’t touch QB until round 5 and ended up with Stafford, Dak and Jimmy G. I was great at QB. My issue was the 2 of the WRs I loaded up on early were hurt most of the year (Thielen and Adams) and my RB shots of Sony and Montgomery were total whiffs. 

I hear what you're saying and think of your draft as contra to prevailing wisdom. I think that was a specific league with specific draft tendencies and you likely weren't getting Jimmy, Dak, and Stafford that late in many other drafts according to those league specifications. So it's really a situation where you, in that instance, read the draft exceptionally well and were able to pull those QBs late. I don't think that would happen again if we did it again. I think your point/joke last week or so about the scrap heap of QBs so eagerly awaited with open arms in a Superflex is a good one that speaks to the level of the league's specs when paralleled with real football. IOW, how close are the important positions, and how are they reflected in scoring in FF? 

But I take your point. And there's always this notion in that a Superflex league, one has to start a quarterback. But certain circumstances, players, and web sites can remind one that one has the option to do just that: Superflex. Really, if you have no better options for a week at QB, you've got the option to pull any old matchup body into the fold and go from there. 

I guess I would argue that QBs would go much quicker in other drafts than ours, so waiting isn't always as much an option as in 1QB redraft or something like it. As for ours anecdotally, I whiffed on QBs this year; that was my issue. I pulled some utterly rancid scores from starters from 6 to -2.7 or so, with a four and a doughnut thrown in there for good measure. Just cringeworthy. And I had to take players later that you really had to hope panned out, which they largely did. 

But that's about all I got.

Lamar is awesome. Deion gives the edge to Mahomes over the next five years. Whatever it brings, I hope it brings continued health for both of them. They're stunning to watch at their age.

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I have got to thank LJ for the #1 seed and one of the best seasons ever in my dyno. 

Unfortunately, with Cook, Henry, Fournette & Conner as my top 4 RB's, I lost in the semi-final and will likely lose the consolation game also - unless Adams goes for 170 and 2 tds. 

Oh well, it was a run. Even with the early exit, this is tied for my favorite season ever. 

Now, I will be rooting for Reality Football. 

Go LJ, keep being great. And, thnx for the joy. 

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‪Lamar has now played 8 games after the season changing game at Seattle, which makes it easy to extrapolate his stats since then for a full 16-game season

Only 2950 yards passing. But 50 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 130 passer rating which would be the highest ever. Plus 1260 yards rushing and 8 more TDs. ‬

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On 12/23/2019 at 11:14 AM, The_Man said:

‪Lamar has now played 8 games after the season changing game at Seattle, which makes it easy to extrapolate his stats since then for a full 16-game season

Only 2950 yards passing. But 50 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 130 passer rating which would be the highest ever. Plus 1260 yards rushing and 8 more TDs. ‬

Did a little more research on this - Lamar's passer rating over the last 8 games is 130.9. I've found only 3 other QBs who ever put up a QB rating of more than 130 during any 8-game stretch.

Brady, 2007 - in Games 1-8 and 3-10
Manning, 2004 - Games 6-13
Montana, 1989 - Games 3-10, 5-12, and 6-13

Those are all regarded among the greatest QB seasons of all time. If you expand the QB rating to 125 over an 8-game stretch, you get a lot more

Rodgers in 2011, Games 1-8
Brees last year from Games 3-10 and also Wilson last year, Games 5-12
Steve Young in 94 and Brady in 2010
and then two big surprises to me: Kirk Cousins the last 8 games of 2015 and Nick Foles the last 8 games of 2013

Remember last year when the big storyline was that defenses had a big advantage the second time they faced Lamar?

This year's first games vs Cincy and Cleveland combined: 90.6 passer rating, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 sacks
This year's second games vs Cincy and Cleveland combined: 142.4 passer rating, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks

 

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20 minutes ago, The_Man said:

Remember last year when the big storyline was that defenses had a big advantage the second time they faced Lamar?

I don't think this was ever a "big storyline," it was just pointed out that the Chargers were the only team to face him twice last year, and they played him much better the second time.

Among all of his impressive accomplishments, I don't think dominating Cincy and Cleveland rank terribly high on the list...

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He has silenced the “he can’t throw” and “he can’t run an nfl offense” critics. The sad part is at some point he will get hurt because every NFL player gets hurt and all those “he can’t hold up physically” critics will come out. The fact for fantasy is he could get hurt and never play another NFL season and every dynasty players already got a great ROI on their Lamar pick.

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3 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Zach smith, always a class act...

That's wretched. To Tweet that is sort of violative of private conversations had between adults. Zach Smith needs to grow up. The other guy was wrong and made a mistake. He doesn't need to mea culpa a private conversation over the inevitable Twitter mob sure to follow. People ought to know better.

5 hours ago, The_Man said:

Did a little more research on this - Lamar's passer rating over the last 8 games is 130.9. I've found only 3 other QBs who ever put up a QB rating of more than 130 during any 8-game stretch.

Brady, 2007 - in Games 1-8 and 3-10
Manning, 2004 - Games 6-13
Montana, 1989 - Games 3-10, 5-12, and 6-13

Those are all regarded among the greatest QB seasons of all time. If you expand the QB rating to 125 over an 8-game stretch, you get a lot more

Rodgers in 2011, Games 1-8
Brees last year from Games 3-10 and also Wilson last year, Games 5-12
Steve Young in 94 and Brady in 2010
and then two big surprises to me: Kirk Cousins the last 8 games of 2015 and Nick Foles the last 8 games of 2013

10 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He has silenced the “he can’t throw” and “he can’t run an nfl offense” critics. The sad part is at some point he will get hurt because every NFL player gets hurt and all those “he can’t hold up physically” critics will come out. The fact for fantasy is he could get hurt and never play another NFL season and every dynasty players already got a great ROI on their Lamar pick.

Fascinating stuff, The_Man. I'm having trouble formatting here, so I'll just leave it at that. 

And to ilov80s, yup. But a caveat to that: I think the whole "he can't do that forever" critics have a much better leg to stand on. He just won't be to handle it, IMO. That criticism isn't a dog whistle for everything we want to step around when we talk about "throwing" or "running an offense" criticisms. It's not couched remotely in the human bias realm of intelligence, skill or racism, but in actual observance of physical phenomena. That hit he took in the Jets game at the eight yard line in the second quarter was bone-shattering, and it was just another play in the life of Lamar.  To hold race constant: I can't imagine CMC at RB can hold up at his rate of usage, either, and worry about it just as much. I just hope they both get theirs before it catches up with them (I mean money as "theirs").

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53 minutes ago, rockaction said:

That's wretched. To Tweet that is sort of violative of private conversations had between adults. Zach Smith needs to grow up. The other guy was wrong and made a mistake. He doesn't need to mea culpa a private conversation over the inevitable Twitter mob sure to follow. People ought to know better.

Fascinating stuff, The_Man. I'm having trouble formatting here, so I'll just leave it at that. 

And to ilov80s, yup. But a caveat to that: I think the whole "he can't do that forever" critics have a much better leg to stand on. He just won't be to handle it, IMO. That criticism isn't a dog whistle for everything we want to step around when we talk about "throwing" or "running an offense" criticisms. It's not couched remotely in the human bias realm of intelligence, skill or racism, but in actual observance of physical phenomena. That hit he took in the Jets game at the eight yard line in the second quarter was bone-shattering, and it was just another play in the life of Lamar.  To hold race constant: I can't imagine CMC at RB can hold up at his rate of usage, either, and worry about it just as much. I just hope they both get theirs before it catches up with them (I mean money as "theirs").

I don't think he can do it for as long as someone like Brees or Brady. The injury rate for RB is higher than QB so he does have an added risk. I am not sure how much that difference matters given the small sample size of NFL seasons but it does have some effect. So the end result will be based on what kind of injuries he gets, how well he trains to stay in top shape, his genetic ability to age and recover well, effectiveness of the medical care, etc. There are guys like Lesean McCoy, Frank Gore, Curtis Martin, etc. who are able to retain their juice for 10 or so seasons and even into their 30s retained NFL RB caliber athleticism. They all surely took a ton more physical punishment that Jackson does and are smaller (thicker frames) players than Jackson.  The other factor we can't account for is how much he will continue to develop as a passer. In a couple years, we might him rushing more like 80-100 times instead of 178 and replacing those rushes with more passes. I would say if Lamar can maintain even average starting QB NFL passing ability and has the athleticism of 31 year old Lesean McCoy, than I don't see why he can't still be a very good QB for fantasy and real life until he at least 32-33. 

As for CMC, IDK. He looks well built, seems to be in absolute peak shape, has no signs yet of any degenerative issues. Marshall Faulk played until he was 32 and at age 30 had 1100 yards and 11 TDs. During Faulk's prime, he was averaging 360 touches a game which is right in line with what CMC is averaging. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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26 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I don't think he can do it for as long as someone like Brees or Brady. The injury rate for RB is higher than QB so he does have an added risk. I am not sure how much that difference matters given the small sample size of NFL seasons but it does have some effect. So the end result will be based on what kind of injuries he gets, how well he trains to stay in top shape, his genetic ability to age and recover well, effectiveness of the medical care, etc. There are guys like Lesean McCoy, Frank Gore, Curtis Martin, etc. who are able to retain their juice for 10 or so seasons and even into their 30s retained NFL RB caliber athleticism. They all surely took a ton more physical punishment that Jackson does and are smaller (thicker frames) players than Jackson.  The other factor we can't account for is how much he will continue to develop as a passer. In a couple years, we might him rushing more like 80-100 times instead of 178 and replacing those rushes with more passes. I would say if Lamar can maintain even average starting QB NFL passing ability and has the athleticism of 31 year old Lesean McCoy, than I don't see why he can't still be a very good QB for fantasy and real life until he at least 32-33.

This is all very true. I'm just saying that physically being able to succeed out of the pocket for that long is something I'm dubious about, and that it has nothing to do with skin color. That's really the nub of it. So many dog whistles in the world it's hard to get past the real and the true for what is biased. Every time I hear "can't read the field" and problems with the aerial game for a quarterback who is a person of color, I hear those old shades. They were around when I was a kid and Warren Moon was relegated to the CFL. Just insane. Times are different, but to step around the elephant in the room here is a mistake that leads to coded words and coded concepts.

That's all, really.  

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

This is all very true. I'm just saying that physically being able to succeed out of the pocket for that long is something I'm dubious about, and that it has nothing to do with skin color. That's really the nub of it. So many dog whistles in the world it's hard to get past the real and the true for what is biased. Every time I hear "can't read the field" and problems with the aerial game for a quarterback who is a person of color, I hear those old shades. They were around when I was a kid and Warren Moon was relegated to the CFL. Just insane. Times are different, but to step around the elephant in the room here is a mistake that leads to coded words and coded concepts.

That's all, really.  

Like this lady named Karen who wrote a letter critical of Lamar to the Baltimore Sun where she said instead of buying watches for his offensive linemen, Lamar should have given the money to charity. 

Quote

 

It just flaunts the amount of money they make and don’t know what to do with. Sorry, Lamar, I am not such a big fan now.

Karen Price

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/readers-respond/bs-ed-rr-jackson-rolex-20191226-ijsooyn64fgrtp2vmb66myer6i-story.html

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8 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Like this lady named Karen who wrote a letter critical of Lamar to the Baltimore Sun where she said instead of buying watches for his offensive linemen, Lamar should have given the money to charity. 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/readers-respond/bs-ed-rr-jackson-rolex-20191226-ijsooyn64fgrtp2vmb66myer6i-story.html

Has there even been a child named Karen or are they all just born mid 40s soccer moms finding things to complain about? Get back in your minivan and stay in your lane Karen.

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13 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Has there even been a child named Karen or are they all just born mid 40s soccer moms finding things to complain about? Get back in your minivan and stay in your lane Karen.

My serious ex-girlfriend twenty years ago was named Karen. I loved her. In retrospect, she was a vegan with scoldy sort of typical leftist trope complaints about the world. So yeah, about that. Nice observation.

eta* You'll note there are no songs about girls named Karen, aside from a Beach Boys' television intro that lasted thirty seconds and wound up on TeeVee Toons (I know, believe me, I tried to to find one). So yeah, again, not a name you're noticing until there's a complaint being lodged in your housing association about the ornaments you've hung or something. 

Unless you're Karen O. of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Then all bets are off. That's a wild one. 

Edited by rockaction
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21 minutes ago, rockaction said:

My serious ex-girlfriend twenty years ago was named Karen. I loved her. In retrospect, she was a vegan with scoldy sort of typical leftist trope complaints about the world. So yeah, about that. Nice observation.

eta* You'll note there are no songs about girls named Karen, aside from a Beach Boys' television intro that lasted thirty seconds and wound up on TeeVee Toons (I know, believe me, I tried to to find one). So yeah, again, not a name you're noticing until there's a complaint being lodged in your housing association about the ornaments you've hung or something. 

Unless you're Karen O. of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Then all bets are off. That's a wild one. 

The memes exist for a reason.
 

“Excuse me I’d like to speak to the manager”

sincerely every Karen ever

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28 minutes ago, Faust said:

"After knocking Tom Brady and the defending champion New England Patriots out of the playoffs, the Tennessee Titans face what might be a tougher task: slowing down quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens' offense, which leads the league at 33.2 points per game."

Hmm, might it be a tougher task to slow the offense that crushed the NFL's 41-year-old single-season rushing record and has a QB who posted a 130 passer rating over his last 8 games? Pretty bold statement

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2 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Yep my facebook is blowing up with how overrated he is. Haters out in full force

Well, I think those who were declaring him the best QB in the league already did overrate him, but I think it's fair to say that there is still much improvement that can be made by Jackson as a passer, and I was a little concerned about his body language tonight.  Smiling and laughing after throwing a pick on your first possession is a bad look, and he seemed to be annoyed with teammates way too often tonight.  He is a special talent for sure, and if he can improve on those things, he could be scary good. 

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Lamar Jackson completed 31-of-59 passes for 365 yards, one touchdown, and two picks, adding 20 carries for 143 yards on the ground in Baltimore's Divisional Round loss to the Titans.

Jackson pieced together one of the all-time great regular seasons in just his second year in the league, garnering a first-team All-Pro selection and becoming the first player in league history to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for another 1,000. Jackson not only broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing mark (1,039) for a quarterback with 1,206 yards on the ground, the 23-year-old did so in the same year he led the league with 36 touchdown passes through the air. It’s not all bad news as the Ravens, barring a drastic chain of events, will return all 11 starters on offense and both OC Greg Roman and DC Don Martindale for another shot at history. Having said that, there’s a terrific chance Jackson becomes the first NFL MVP to lose his first playoff game since Adrian Peterson did so in 2012. There will be loads of drivel shouted about Jackson’s five turnovers and 0-2 record in the postseason this spring, but none of it should discount the Ravens' football renaissance in 2019.

Jan 12, 2020, 1:06 AM ET

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

His floor for fantasy is high because of the rushing. If he cant win football games that can become an issue of job security far down the road, but the future for fantasy looks bright. 

After a season where they wen 14-2, I don't think anyone in the Ravens organziation is worrying about Lamar being able to win games

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8 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Prepare to be bored until September

Probably was the last NFL game I will watch until September. With the Saints and now Ravens out, I am struggling to find something interesting. 

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

His floor for fantasy is high because of the rushing. If he cant win football games that can become an issue of job security far down the road, but the future for fantasy looks bright. 

🙄 He's - what? - 20-4 as a starter. I think his job security isn't an issue.

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5 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

500 total yards. As someone who has him in a keeper league, I hope all his future bad days are that awful.

I love how the haters are like Lamar played awful or he struggled yet he put up massive numbers.  Dude can’t do it all himself.  He needs a dependable possession wr that’s for sure.  But throwing 59 times was never a recipe for success.  He will be fine and he played well for his first postseason action.

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16 minutes ago, PinkydaPimp said:

I love how the haters are like Lamar played awful or he struggled yet he put up massive numbers.  Dude can’t do it all himself.  He needs a dependable possession wr that’s for sure.  But throwing 59 times was never a recipe for success.  He will be fine and he played well for his first postseason action.

Last night was not his first postseason action.  It was a good game by fantasy standards, despite the three turnovers, but I am not sure how anyone could have watched that and think he played well.  In the playoffs, you have to finish possessions, and he was unable to do so all night (1 TD, 2 field goals, several big 4th down failures, etc.).  Sure, he threw for a lot of yards, but many would call those empty, inefficient yards; it took him nearly 60 attempts, he barely cracked 6 YPA, and had 3 times as many turnovers as touchdowns. 

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