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Fanduel Week 3 (1 Viewer)

i think bradford will face more pressure and a more active defense this week. Can he do it with more pressure, will he throw some picks with no running game? The natchup for the whole minny offense is not good.

 
We are talking cash though, and looking to go at least 2x value..  That's 14.8 points, and 21 QBs had more than that last week.  Going against Cleveland, it's pretty safe to say that he will be in the top 20 Qbs this week.  I think people are overthinking this one.  It's a good Qb play, especially if you need 1000 or so for another position. 
ofc hes probably the best cash game qb otb.  hes a great play.  it just makes me wanna throw up thats all.

 
Seeing a lot of talk of Diggs in a cash lineup.  I keep going back and forth and keep looking at Minn being projected to be the 3rd lowest scoring team this week by Vegas. 

This is probably the one that I am overthinking.
He's getting a 30% target share and is 6400. Carolina secondary is not that great, pretty easy to plug in. 

 
What do we think about this lineup for the Survivor?  I've got 5 entries alive, and one more cut at 50% to get to the last week where prizes are guaranteed.  In theory it's a cash game, but it's probably tougher than 50/50s because the remaining entries have survived the first two weeks.  

Tanny

CJA/Gordon  --> Prefer D. Johnson?

Landry/Travis Benjamin/JMatt  --> Prefer Marvin or Diggs?

Reed/Boswell/Dolphins --> Prefer Vinatieri?

I could switch up JMatt for Marvin straight up, or drop down to Diggs to free up enough cash to upgrade CJA to David Johnson and upgrade the kicker to Vinatieri.  I don't love Diggs on the road though, and really feel like I'm just trying to hit some doubles here. 

*While writing this up I started to consider avoiding Landry due to already having Tannehill, and rolling with Marvin, Diggs and Benjamin to upgrade DJA to David Johnson.  Feels a little more balanced.  

 
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What do we think about this lineup for the Survivor?  I've got 5 entries alive, and one more cut at 50% to get to the last week where prizes are guaranteed.  In theory it's a cash game, but it's probably tougher than 50/50s because the remaining entries have survived the first two weeks.  

Tanny

CJA/Gordon  --> Prefer D. Johnson?

Landry/Travis Benjamin/JMatt  --> Prefer Marvin or Diggs?

Reed/Boswell/Dolphins --> Prefer Vinatieri?

I could switch up JMatt for Marvin straight up, or drop down to Diggs to free up enough cash to upgrade CJA to David Johnson and upgrade the kicker to Vinatieri.  I don't love Diggs on the road though, and really feel like I'm just trying to hit some doubles here.
I haven't done mine yet, but I think I'm going to diversify my entries -- like a 60-40 split if I get 2 I like. The cut lines have been absurdly low so far so I don't know how to approach it. Week 1 the line was so low b/c it didn't fill. I'm assuming last week was so low b/c the chalk didn't fare well, but that's just an assumption. I'll probably do a chalky lineup and a lineup I think will have the best floor regardless of chalk, but that's just a game plan 3 days out so it may change. 

 
For a cheap TE, I had been looking at Pitta (cash) and Cook (GPP), but just saw this on Rotoworld:

Dennis Pitta at Jaguars: It’s hard to advise sitting Pitta after he drew a dozen targets last week. But the Jaguars have allowed a league-low five catches for 44 yards to opposing tight ends through two weeks. Antonio Gates got them for a touchdown in Week 2, but still finished the day with just three grabs for 15 yards. The additions of FSTashaun Gipson and slot CB Jalen Ramsey to WLB Telvin Smith have greatly improved the Jaguars’ middle-of-the-field pass defense. Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Sr. have better matchups on the outside this Sunday.

I don't love hardly any of the options this week at TE.  

 
I don't love hardly any of the options this week at TE.  
I'm with you 100%. Witten has some contrarian appeal just b/c he's likely to get some targets this week if the "Dak had to throw to Dez a ton last week because Dez complained after not getting any targets in week 1" phenomenon normalizes. I'm also thinking about just paying up for Olsen and being done w/ it. 

 
I'm with you 100%. Witten has some contrarian appeal just b/c he's likely to get some targets this week if the "Dak had to throw to Dez a ton last week because Dez complained after not getting any targets in week 1" phenomenon normalizes. I'm also thinking about just paying up for Olsen and being done w/ it. 
If you are paying up I don't think there is any doubt that Reed is where to go. The Giants against tight ends are awful, to go with a couple 'down' weeks for Reed. Seems like an optimal bounce back.

Couple other options I'm looking at are Tamme (if playing Monday slate), Burton (if Ertz out), or Witten. It is very hard to pay down at TE this week without a floor of 0. 

 
For a cheap TE, I had been looking at Pitta (cash) and Cook (GPP), but just saw this on Rotoworld:

Dennis Pitta at Jaguars: It’s hard to advise sitting Pitta after he drew a dozen targets last week. But the Jaguars have allowed a league-low five catches for 44 yards to opposing tight ends through two weeks. Antonio Gates got them for a touchdown in Week 2, but still finished the day with just three grabs for 15 yards. The additions of FSTashaun Gipson and slot CB Jalen Ramsey to WLB Telvin Smith have greatly improved the Jaguars’ middle-of-the-field pass defense. Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Sr. have better matchups on the outside this Sunday.

I don't love hardly any of the options this week at TE.  
Rotoworld must not watch Jags games, the DBs have been good on the outside, its the short crossing routes that are killing us.  If Pita is lined up in the slot and runs those crossing routes, gets one on one with Poz, or if the run play action and throw behind Telvin, who will bite, then Pita will have a huge day against us

37 minutes ago, karmarooster said:
 
Rotoworld must not watch Jags games, the DBs have been good on the outside, its the short crossing routes that are killing us.  If Pita is lined up in the slot and runs those crossing routes, gets one on one with Poz, or if the run play action and throw behind Telvin, who will bite, then Pita will have a huge day against us
Thanks for the homer perspective... still think I prefer Reed in cash to him but he's not a bad option for a punt.  

 
Also of note from the Jags/Balt game

There is a good possibility that our starting LT Beachum and our starting C Linder will be out for this game, I would move any and all Jags players down and Balt Def could be a cheap play.

 
How do you guys account for your survivor action with respect to weekly ROI?
I count the change in cash + EV each week (taking the full brunt of the rake up front).

So if I enter $100 worth of survivor contests in Week 1, my change in cash, compared to before I entered, is -$100. My change in EV, compared to before I entered, is whatever the value of my entries is after Week 1 -- i.e., the number of entries I have remaining multiplied by the total prize pool remaining divided by the total number of entries remaining.

For week 2, my change in cash is whatever cash I win (if any, depending on the structure of the contest), and my change in EV is the same calculation as before (number of my entries remaining times total prize pool remaining divided by total entries remaining) less the calculation from Week 1.

And so on.

 
Thoughts on this Cash lineup

Tannehill

Dwill/David Johnson

Maclin/Matthews/Landry

Pita

Vinati

Mia
I have almost this exact roster for my main slate contests right now.  Only changes are  Marvin Jones for Maclin and Mason Crosby for Vinateri.

 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Where did you go to get the optimal lineup?

I have that core in my lineup, but with Rivers and Marvin instead of Mariota and Landry.   Dodds liked it to the tune of 124.8 and MT 132.7. 

That said, I don't think Dodds would recommend Marvin, Diggs, or Matthews for cash b/c of the lower expected team totals for them this week. 
I have a spreadsheet that uses Solver to come up with.   It's simply the max projected points that fits within the salary cap. It ignores stuff like Dodds criteria or whatever. More for curiosity than to use as an actual lineup. 

 
I have a spreadsheet that uses Solver to come up with.   It's simply the max projected points that fits within the salary cap. It ignores stuff like Dodds criteria or whatever. More for curiosity than to use as an actual lineup. 
I love Solver. By the end of this season I'll be an Excel guru with all the time I'm putting into learning it for DFS.

 
Cash game lineup. Thoughts? Been a little over .500 the first couple weeks.

Rivers

DavJohsnon/DeAngelo

Landry/Matthews/Diggs

Cooks

Vinatieri

Broncos

 
Cash game lineup. Thoughts? Been a little over .500 the first couple weeks.

Rivers

DavJohsnon/DeAngelo

Landry/Matthews/Diggs

Cooks

Vinatieri

Broncos
I wouldn't roll with Cook in a cash game.  Pitta is an easy pivot at the same price.  

 
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Megla said:
Thoughts on this Cash lineup

Tannehill

Dwill/David Johnson

Maclin/Matthews/Landry

Pita

Vinati

Mia
I typically dont stack QB and WR for cash games because it increases variance.  MIA might score all TDs on the ground for example.  QB/RB, QB/DT, or RB/DT I would do in cash.

I haven't looked at specific players yet so i don't know what other options are available. 

 
Currently liking...


QB


Drew Brees


9000


RB


David Johnson


8400


RB


Melvin Gordon


7100


WR


Stefon Diggs


6400


WR


Marvin Jones


6900


WR


Kenny Britt


5400


TE


Jordan Reed


7500


K


Wil Lutz


4500


D


Miami Dolphins


4600

Some thoughts...

-DJ was kept out of the game last week because of mental mistakes.  Bet he rights the ship this week.

-Not fading Brees at home in cash

-Diggs has a stupid market share of targets and is still dirt cheap.  Rodgers is playing like garbage, but his last 300+yd game was vs the Lions so hoping this goes into a shootout.  Get right game for him.

-Marvin has 10+ targets each game I believe and Sam Shields is probably not playing

-Britt is punt play, but TB is good at run-stopping

-My Giants still can't defend the middle of the field (Snead running free last week) = Reed

 
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Thurs/Mon Cash LU

Eli, Blount, McCoy, AB, Julio, Shepard, J. James, Vina, Mia

Like the Eli to Shepard connection with Gordon on Beckham. AB and Julio speak for themselves. James has been great redzone target. Blount is going to keep Pats in game. McCoy is one of the few 3 down backs. 

 
So Snead missed practice today with a toe.  Still expected to play normally.  Has anyone heard anything different?

 
Thoughts on OBJ this week? A lot of people are off of him but didn't he play really well against Norman last year? He did only have 76 yds on 6 receptions but if I recall correctly, he dropped one pass where he roasted Norman, and beat him a second time later on but Eli made a bad throw.

 
Thoughts on OBJ this week? A lot of people are off of him but didn't he play really well against Norman last year? He did only have 76 yds on 6 receptions but if I recall correctly, he dropped one pass where he roasted Norman, and beat him a second time later on but Eli made a bad throw.
On him and Eli for gpp for sure. Thinking maybe 20-30% exposure. 

 
Stefan Diggs did not practice today.  Watching from the sidelines in a hoodie.  Not on the injury report, because of course, why would he be?

 
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Stefon Diggs is dealing with a groin injury.
Don't press the panic button yet, fantasy owners. Coach Mike Zimmer said his absence from Friday's practice was only a precaution and Diggs isn't even listed on the Vikings' injury report. Coming off the game of his life in Week 2, Diggs needs to be started in all formats Sunday against Carolina. Sep 23 - 2:25 PM

Source: Matt Vensel on Twitter
Hmm. May push me off him, although I have him locked in some Thursdays.

 
I need to be talked into Ryan Tannehill.  All the experts are touting him, but I see a situation where the Dolphins won't need much offense at all to win.  He had a great week last week because they were down big early and needed to throw.  They could score 10 points in this game and then just run out the clock in the 2nd half and still probably win.
 

 
Thoughts on this as a second cash line up

Mariota

DWill/DJohnson

Maclin/Fitz/TWilliams (SD)

Pita

Boswell

Mia

 
I need to be talked into Ryan Tannehill.  All the experts are touting him, but I see a situation where the Dolphins won't need much offense at all to win.  He had a great week last week because they were down big early and needed to throw.  They could score 10 points in this game and then just run out the clock in the 2nd half and still probably win.
 
I'm struggling with it too.  For GPP, there are two very good arguments for avoiding -- likely to be highly owned, and probably doesn't have a high ceiling due to the matchup and opposing QB.

For cash games, it's trickier.  Let's say you pair him with the Dolphins D for a bit of stability in case the game gets out of hand due to a pick-6, etc.  Again, he probably doesn't have a high ceiling and the Browns Defense did not let the past two QBs reach 20 points.  But he probably has a very solid floor, and I'm expecting that the team wants to use this home game (home opener) as a "get right", and may be more inclined to keep up the tempo even if the game is out of hand in the 2nd half.  And they probably don't have the personnel to run well, despite the solid matchup.  

On the other hand, if he's highly owned and doesn't have a great game, you're a leg up on a large portion of the field.  I think the range of outcomes here, from most likely to least, are: solid but unspectacular value (e.g 15-18 points), a stinker of a game due to not needing to do much (e.g. 10-15 points), and a very solid game pushing 3x in value (e.g. 20+).  

Given that range of outcomes, I'm not super excited about the play, unless it's a partial hedge against the likely highest owned QB in a cupcake matchup at home, and when paired with the Defense.  For that reason he'll probably be the "other" lineup I roll out for cash, with my favored QB being Mariotta.  

 
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Looking at the weather reports now - light rain in Green Bay but supposed to be 15-16 mph winds... enough to affect the kicking game. May want to fade Crosby.

 
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Want to play Brees alot, but since he's not on the new main slate I feel like he will be highly owned in the Sun-Mon slate.  Any thoughts on this?

 
Interesting. Diggs a lot lower than I would have thought. 

How well do these ownerships correlate to other sites like FD and DK?
Depends.  If the guy is the 9th highest priced at his position on one site and 4th highest on the other it probably isnt very representative.  If theyre about the same its better than nothing.  Im using it just to see the guys that are 1-3% for GPPs

 
Two lineups for the Sun-Mon games:

QB: Rivers
RB: D. Johnson, M. Forte
WR: B. Cooks, L. Fitzgerald, S. Diggs
TE: D. Pitta
K: W. Lutz
D: Broncos
-
QB: Rivers
RB: C. Anderson, M. Forte
WR: B. Cooks, L. Fitzgerald, T. Benjamin
TE: D. Pitta
K: W. Lutz
D: 49ers

 
Two lineups for the Sun-Mon games:

QB: Rivers
RB: D. Johnson, M. Forte
WR: B. Cooks, L. Fitzgerald, S. Diggs
TE: D. Pitta
K: W. Lutz
D: Broncos
-
QB: Rivers
RB: C. Anderson, M. Forte
WR: B. Cooks, L. Fitzgerald, T. Benjamin
TE: D. Pitta
K: W. Lutz
D: 49ers
I like them, I was just curious:  What made you move away from the Miami D as the chalk D?

 
Interesting. Diggs a lot lower than I would have thought. 

How well do these ownerships correlate to other sites like FD and DK? 
Diggs is probably a bad example.  Diggs is the 11th most expensive WR on Fantasy Aces this week while 35th most expensive on Fanduel.

 
If Rawls sits CMike seems to be in a primo spot, but we're talking about a guy who has never scored an nfl td, who doesn't catch passes, who has 1 career 100 yard game, who is priced above McCoy, Sims, Ware, and Gore. Having a hard time clicking his name.

 
0% tannehill for me
don't necessarily see him as a bad play, I just think there's a wider range of outcomes for him and the salary relief (on FanDuel) from other QBs I'm looking at (Palmer, Rivers, Stafford) doesn't help me get up to anyone I particularly like.  I'm OK going Pitta at TE and Diggs at WR, and that gives me plenty of salary relief elsewhere.

 

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