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Fanduel Week 4 (1 Viewer)

I just scanned through my contests from last week and had the same thing.  Thurs-Mon 50/50s were 104-107 for cash, and Sunday main slate were 113-114.   Interesting. 

ETA:  :lmao:   I guess I wasn't paying attention to which of my lineups won.  I cashed in two Thur-Mon 50/50s despite getting a 0 from Snead and K.Benjamin. 

 
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KarmaPolice said:
:thumbup:

Same here. 

Noticed the same thing for DK last week.  Cuts were a bit lower for the Mon-Thurs games there last week too.   Unfortunately on FD you can't adjust lineups, and with my Snead debacle last week in my Mon-Thurs cash games on FD, I am hesitant to play many 50/50s that way, but thought I would throw a buck at the $1 gpp. 
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I think this is a pretty well-documented phenomenon.  Lots of people attribute it to guys "loading up" on Thursday Night players, but I never saw any data that actually supported that, just guys seeing the loaded-up Thursday rosters dominating the standings until Sunday and concluding that more Thursday night players are rostered than "normal" games.

Personally, I think it is caused by the risk avoidance many people use in cash lineups.  "So-and-so didn't practice Thursday, so I'm not using him out of fear he won't play."  Take Marvin Jones for example.  I suspect his ownership will be lower in the Thurs-Mon contests than on the Sunday only contests (assuming he plays) out of fear of the "0" if he doesn't play.  I have no more data to support that theory than the other theory though.  I had some success in Thurs-Mon GPPs last year using Sun/Mon guys who were listed as questionable that I thought would play.

 
I noticed that in this weeks Footballguys Subscriber Survivor league,the default lineups weren't set to a bunch of people that were on IR.  The lineup set for me was....

Stafford

L Miller

M Gordon

A Brown

T Benjamin 

C Beasley

Pitta

Gano

Jets

Just wondering what people think about rolling this lineup out in cash?  It's similar to a cash lineup I was thinking of playing, as I wanted to build around Stanford, Gordon and Beasley this week.  Thoughts?

 
Need some opinions as I rarely play in the higher priced GPPs at FD.  I won two tickets to the $25.00 Sunday million last night and wanted some thoughts on the below LUs

1. Stafford/Gordon/LBell/ABrown/MJones Jr/TWilliams/HHenry/Prater/Minn- I know that is a lot of DET but I feel they will score 28 or more at Chic

2. Staff/Gordon/Bell/AB/MJJr/Beasley/HH/Lambo/Wash- I Really like this LU

3. Siemian/Bell/Gordon/AB/MJJR/TBenj/HH/Hopkins/Ten

4. Cam/Bell/Gordon/TBenj/MJJR/Crabtree/HH/Lambo/Houst

Thanks for your thoughts

 
Here's my FD-NBA-inspired stars and scrubs (cash) lineup:

Cam

Bell, Gordon

Brown, T. Benjamin, Beasley

Henry, Hopkins, Pats

 
Raging weasel said:
Last week was the only other time I played the thur-mon slate so not a big sample size but the t/m cashline for my contests was 107-109 and main was 113-117. I'm also only small stakes and play $1gpp and $2 50/50 and leagues.
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Cuts will certainly be higher this week for Thursday as AJG was 48-49% owned in 50/50s and 33% owned in GPP, going off for 28 points (about 3.5x).  

 
Question, why are so many people on T. Benjamin?  What makes him the pick over Williams.  Many of the radio shows are saying t. williams is the guy to go with.  Bigger, stronger, more of a presence on the field.  The stats show they are about even also.  Williams has one less target on the year and had more targets last week.

 
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KarmaPolice said:
Have you noticed any difference in the cash lines for Mon-Thurs games vs. the main slate?

I put my Denver power into a $1 Mon-Thurs gpp, but I don't have any Thurs or Monday players in it. 
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Here are my week 3 cash lines averages:

  • Thu-Mon 50/50: 99.64
  • Thu-Mon Double Up: 102.94
  • Main 50/50: 110.12
  • Main Double Up: 116.89
All entries are $1 or $2.

karmarooster said:
Cuts will certainly be higher this week for Thursday as AJG was 48-49% owned in 50/50s and 33% owned in GPP, going off for 28 points (about 3.5x).  
Click to expand...
 Yeah, seeing ~40% for AJG in the 568 man Thu-Mon double ups, will drive up the money lines.  Checked on the ownership percentages in my cash games for good Thursday performers over the past two weeks, and saw Blount around 10% owned in week 3, and Forte 10% owned in week 2.  Will be interesting to see if the money lines get higher than main slate ones or if over exposure to Thu/London/Monday can suppress them enough. 

 
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Baab200 said:
I noticed that in this weeks Footballguys Subscriber Survivor league,the default lineups weren't set to a bunch of people that were on IR.  The lineup set for me was....

Stafford

L Miller

M Gordon

A Brown

T Benjamin 

C Beasley

Pitta

Gano

Jets

Just wondering what people think about rolling this lineup out in cash?  It's similar to a cash lineup I was thinking of playing, as I wanted to build around Stanford, Gordon and Beasley this week.  Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Exact same lineup it gave me. If I read the "prizes" correctly, it says that top 4,000 advance to next week but there are only 1,868 entries. Not sure lineups really matter at this point. Strangest contest I've been in. 

 
achemen said:
Exact same lineup it gave me. If I read the "prizes" correctly, it says that top 4,000 advance to next week but there are only 1,868 entries. Not sure lineups really matter at this point. Strangest contest I've been in. 
Click to expand...
I didn't know it existed. They did a very poor job making subscribers aware of it. 

 
Megla said:
Need some opinions as I rarely play in the higher priced GPPs at FD.  I won two tickets to the $25.00 Sunday million last night and wanted some thoughts on the below LUs

1. Stafford/Gordon/LBell/ABrown/MJones Jr/TWilliams/HHenry/Prater/Minn- I know that is a lot of DET but I feel they will score 28 or more at Chic

2. Staff/Gordon/Bell/AB/MJJr/Beasley/HH/Lambo/Wash- I Really like this LU

3. Siemian/Bell/Gordon/AB/MJJR/TBenj/HH/Hopkins/Ten

4. Cam/Bell/Gordon/TBenj/MJJR/Crabtree/HH/Lambo/Houst

Thanks for your thoughts
Click to expand...
Keep an eye on Marvin's injury status over the weekend.  Hopefully he doesn't turn into this week's Snead.

I actually like these lineups, but more for cash games.  Across the board, you have pretty highly owned/chalk guys.  I am guessing for the higher $ you are going to have to be even more creative than normal to do some damage.  

That 2nd is your favorite, so I would think about tweaking that one a little more.  If you think Beasley will go off, maybe put Dak in instead of Stafford, and you could also upgrade Marvin to a low owned guy like Hopkins for example.  Or you could add some individuality at K/Def. If you are thinking Steelers are going to go off because you have Bell and AB in there, maybe use their kicker instead of Lambo?  

Overall, it looks like you really like a core group that a lot of people do - Bell/Gordon/AB/Marvin/SDWRs.   IF I were you I would either keep a core group of those guys, submit 2 lineups with them, but get "weird" with the rest of the players.  (extreme example that I don't advocate, but just getting my point across: T.Taylor, Gordon, Bell, A.Brown, Marvin, R.Woods, C.Clay, Boswell, SF D)  Keep a core group you love, but get something else in there to make your LU stand out from the pack - a triple stack, odd DT/Rb stack, etc.  Especially look at stud players that you think people might be down on b/c of matchup (J.Jones) or because of production previous weeks (Gurley last week is the perfect example). 

OR do a lineup like one of the above that you originally posted, but mine other games for another mostly different lineup.   

 
wyattroa said:
Question, why are so many people on T. Benjamin?  What makes him the pick over Williams.  Many of the radio shows are saying t. williams is the guy to go with.  Bigger, stronger, more of a presence on the field.  The stats show they are about even also.  Williams has one less target on the year and had more targets last week.
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From what I am gathering, people like the consistent looks and stats Benjamin is getting and like him in cash games.  I think Williams is the play people are leaning towards in gpps because his targets are up and he is more boom/bust.  That said, I think people are all over this game and those 2 WRs.  I was looking at the fantasy aces ownership %s for this weeks thurs gpps and they had Rivers at 28%, Gordon at 44%, T.Benj. at 18%, Williams 20%, and Henry 14%.   Just gives you an idea of how much people are on that game. 

 
wyattroa said:
Question, why are so many people on T. Benjamin?  What makes him the pick over Williams.  Many of the radio shows are saying t. williams is the guy to go with.  Bigger, stronger, more of a presence on the field.  The stats show they are about even also.  Williams has one less target on the year and had more targets last week.
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Not sure why.  Dodds showed two lineups, including a Rivers stack, that included T. Benjamin.  

Roto's matchup blurb, which labels Benjamin a "WR3 with WR2 upside" and Williams a "high-floor, high-ceiling WR3":

Rivers' targets since Keenan Allen tore his ACL in Week 1: Travis Benjamin 20; Tyrell Williams 19; Gordon andDontrelle Inman 10; Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates 6; Dexter McCluster 3. ... Williams logged a career-high 85% of the Chargers' Week 3 snaps and led the team in targets (9) and catches (6). Through three games, the Saints have already allowed five different receivers to top 80 yards against them. With his usage continuing to rise, Williams is a high-floor, high-ceiling WR3 play. Williams leads San Diego in red-zone targets (6) and is tied with Gates for most targets inside the ten-yard line (2). ... Benjamin has led San Diego in receiving yards (115, 82) in consecutive games. Williams and Benjamin are playing all three receiver positions in San Diego's offense -- slot, X, Z -- making them difficult to pinpoint on the field until just before the snap. Benjamin leads the Bolts in targets of 20-plus yards (4) and should be approached as a WR3 with WR2 upside against the NFL's worst secondary. ... Inman is playing too many snaps with top-shelf quarterback play to not have a big week eventually, but his target totals through three games are 3, 3, 4. Inman is a low-floor WR4 in deeper PPR leagues. ... Second-round pick Henry played 97% of the Chargers' Week 3 snaps and caught 5-of-5 targets for 76 yards. Rookie tight ends usually scare me as fantasy investments, but Henry has a chance to be different. In a probable high-scoring affair, Henry is squarely in the TE1 streamer discussion.

 
CWest out, but looks like Charles is playing.  You would think Ware will still be the lead back and they will ease Charles back in, but that situation just got real messy for me.  Maybe there will be more clarity by Sunday morning.

 
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Megla said:
Need some opinions as I rarely play in the higher priced GPPs at FD.  I won two tickets to the $25.00 Sunday million last night and wanted some thoughts on the below LUs

1. Stafford/Gordon/LBell/ABrown/MJones Jr/TWilliams/HHenry/Prater/Minn- I know that is a lot of DET but I feel they will score 28 or more at Chic

2. Staff/Gordon/Bell/AB/MJJr/Beasley/HH/Lambo/Wash- I Really like this LU

3. Siemian/Bell/Gordon/AB/MJJR/TBenj/HH/Hopkins/Ten

4. Cam/Bell/Gordon/TBenj/MJJR/Crabtree/HH/Lambo/Houst

Thanks for your thoughts
Click to expand...
Like Karmapolice said, these are good lineups for cash games but not going to win a gpp tho they may get you in the money. If you're shooting for big money you need to do something off the grid but not crazy. Maybe take 3rd lineup and put in demaryius thomas and zach miller, or fade NO/SD completly.

 
Only did 1 GPP Thursday as life has been hectic.  Didn't put alot of time into it, and not super sexy, but purposely avoided Gordon for Blount and went after Reed in the super stack.  I will NOT miss Reed's monster week that's coming up.  Not playing him in cash this week since there are better plays in Olsen and the cheap TEs, but I love for GPP.  I also see similar usage (passer, rusher, receiver) for Pyror, and while he probably won't put up 28 again, I think his ownership will still be low after the price hike and who's around him.

Cousins

Blount, Howard

KBenjamin, Pryor, DJax

Reed, Tucker, Vikings

 
david has forgotten more about fantasy football than i'll ever know, but i dont think stacking qb/wr or qb/te for cash games is a good idea.  i just think it lowers your floor and increases your variance for no good reason.  I do, however, like to have qb/rb and qb/k stacks.  I really like rivers/gordon (with or without lambo) and cousins/hopkins this week for example. 

 
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sooted72 said:
david has forgotten more about fantasy football than i'll ever know, but i dont think stacking qb/wr or qb/te for cash games is a good idea.  i just think it lowers your floor and increases your variance for no good reason.  I do, however, like to have qb/rb and ab/k stacks.  I really like rivers/gordon (with or without lambo) and cousins/hopkins this week for example. 
Click to expand...


He rationalized it with a couple comments

My logic on stacking is that to win in CASH / 50-50s, your QB has to hit. So if you start there, then stacking makes sense. When the QB sucks, then your lineup is already in grave danger).
Click to expand...
 It should also be understood that I play these stacked cash game lineups in 3X, 5X, and some GPPs too. This helps to beat that 15% rake when some of the lineups crush things.
Click to expand...

 
yeah i guess its the whole "to win in CASH / 50-50s, your QB has to hit" thing i disagree with.  that doesnt make much sense to me.  like if you have cam this week and he gives you a meh performance, youre likely to do a lot better if you dont have kbenj dragging you down too.

as far as the second quote about the 3x and 5x that could be true idk.  i was commenting specifically on heads up/50-50/double up contests.

 
sooted72 said:
yeah i guess its the whole "to win in CASH / 50-50s, your QB has to hit" thing i disagree with.  that doesnt make much sense to me.  like if you have cam this week and he gives you a meh performance, youre likely to do a lot better if you dont have kbenj dragging you down too.

as far as the second quote about the 3x and 5x that could be true idk.  i was commenting specifically on heads up/50-50/double up contests.
Click to expand...
My understanding is the bigger the multiplier, the more it should look like a tourney lineup, hence the stack.  I guess if you are playing a ton you go with a stack you feel safe with in all formats instead of doing one for 50/50s and one for 5xs.

 
KarmaPolice said:
Keep an eye on Marvin's injury status over the weekend.  Hopefully he doesn't turn into this week's Snead.

I actually like these lineups, but more for cash games.  Across the board, you have pretty highly owned/chalk guys.  I am guessing for the higher $ you are going to have to be even more creative than normal to do some damage.  

That 2nd is your favorite, so I would think about tweaking that one a little more.  If you think Beasley will go off, maybe put Dak in instead of Stafford, and you could also upgrade Marvin to a low owned guy like Hopkins for example.  Or you could add some individuality at K/Def. If you are thinking Steelers are going to go off because you have Bell and AB in there, maybe use their kicker instead of Lambo?  

Overall, it looks like you really like a core group that a lot of people do - Bell/Gordon/AB/Marvin/SDWRs.   IF I were you I would either keep a core group of those guys, submit 2 lineups with them, but get "weird" with the rest of the players.  (extreme example that I don't advocate, but just getting my point across: T.Taylor, Gordon, Bell, A.Brown, Marvin, R.Woods, C.Clay, Boswell, SF D)  Keep a core group you love, but get something else in there to make your LU stand out from the pack - a triple stack, odd DT/Rb stack, etc.  Especially look at stud players that you think people might be down on b/c of matchup (J.Jones) or because of production previous weeks (Gurley last week is the perfect example). 

OR do a lineup like one of the above that you originally posted, but mine other games for another mostly different lineup.   
Click to expand...
Thanks for the insight

 
Raging weasel said:
Like Karmapolice said, these are good lineups for cash games but not going to win a gpp tho they may get you in the money. If you're shooting for big money you need to do something off the grid but not crazy. Maybe take 3rd lineup and put in demaryius thomas and zach miller, or fade NO/SD completly.
Click to expand...
What if I was happy to just cash, would you stay set with these or tweak them

 
For whatever reason, I'm not feeling it this week.  Reducing my budget percentage down to 7% instead of my normal 10-12%.

Anyone else have these weeks? 

 
bro1ncos said:
For whatever reason, I'm not feeling it this week.  Reducing my budget percentage down to 7% instead of my normal 10-12%.

Anyone else have these weeks? 
Click to expand...
Yes, but this is a week where I'm "feeling it":  Will probably be a disastrous week now.

 
Megla said:
Need some opinions as I rarely play in the higher priced GPPs at FD.  I won two tickets to the $25.00 Sunday million last night and wanted some thoughts on the below LUs

1. Stafford/Gordon/LBell/ABrown/MJones Jr/TWilliams/HHenry/Prater/Minn- I know that is a lot of DET but I feel they will score 28 or more at Chic

2. Staff/Gordon/Bell/AB/MJJr/Beasley/HH/Lambo/Wash- I Really like this LU

3. Siemian/Bell/Gordon/AB/MJJR/TBenj/HH/Hopkins/Ten

4. Cam/Bell/Gordon/TBenj/MJJR/Crabtree/HH/Lambo/Houst

Thanks for your thoughts
Click to expand...
Second entry for the Sunday Mill

Prescott

Bell-Howard

AB-Hopkins-Beasley

ZMiller

Boswell

Den

Troughs?

 
 That looks pretty good. To answer your earlier question, if you're happy just to cash using your fav lineup from before is fine. How many players are in the contest and what does the last position pay?

 
wyattroa said:
Question, why are so many people on T. Benjamin?  What makes him the pick over Williams.  Many of the radio shows are saying t. williams is the guy to go with.  Bigger, stronger, more of a presence on the field.  The stats show they are about even also.  Williams has one less target on the year and had more targets last week.
Click to expand...
I havent looked at the actual breakdown, but I am assume Vontae Davis was covering Benjamin alot more than Williams last week.  Both guys are good plays though, my concern isnt with them though.  If Snead is hurt again, and Fleener remembers hes awful then Brees may not have a great day. I could easily see this game turn into a slow grind out 17-21 type game.  Theyre both so cheap though that even if that does happen they have a good shot to hit value though.

I started out the week planning on splitting my GPPs between Rivers, Cousins, Roethlisberger, and Cam but I think Im going all in on Cam.

 
Raging weasel said:
$100K Sun NFL Oakheart Squib (Single Entry) $1

hoyer

Gordon, m jones

k Benjamin, brown, hopkins

miller

hopkins

balt
Click to expand...
I like this one.  I was thinking something on these lines for this contest too. 

Here is what I put in for the Thursday $1 squib single entry:

Siemian

Bell, Johnson

D.Thomas, Sanders, Hurns

Pitta

Hopkins

Pitts D.

Going to put together 2-3 entries for the $1 Sunday gpps as well. 

 
Raging weasel said:
 That looks pretty good. To answer your earlier question, if you're happy just to cash using your fav lineup from before is fine. How many players are in the contest and what does the last position pay?
Click to expand...
Looks like this contest is 82,352 entries, and pays the top 19,913 ($40 to last spot, $200K to winner)

 
KarmaPolice said:
Looks like this contest is 82,352 entries, and pays the top 19,913 ($40 to last spot, $200K to winner)
Click to expand...
Yes, this was a 2 dollar MLB torney ticket, so just cashing is good by me.

Looks like I will GET 2 more from tonight MLB so I can playnwith some LUs

 
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Opinions on this cash lineup?

Big Ben

L. Bell, Dwayne Washington

AB, KB, Larry Fitz

H. Henry

Prater 

Patriots

Might have gone a little too cheap at RB2 and TE but they will get at least some points so am I going to make that up with the rest of my lineup?

 
Zyphros said:
Opinions on this cash lineup?

Big Ben

L. Bell, Dwayne Washington

AB, KB, Larry Fitz

H. Henry

Prater 

Patriots

Might have gone a little too cheap at RB2 and TE but they will get at least some points so am I going to make that up with the rest of my lineup?
Click to expand...
That's a whole lotta Steeler action for a cash game.  We saw last week that they can put up a stinker for FF, and if that happens, you are sunk. 

IMO I would think about pivoting off of Bell to somebody like Elliot and even Ben to somebody else. 

 
Zyphros said:
Opinions on this cash lineup?

Big Ben

L. Bell, Dwayne Washington

AB, KB, Larry Fitz

H. Henry

Prater 

Patriots

Might have gone a little too cheap at RB2 and TE but they will get at least some points so am I going to make that up with the rest of my lineup?
Click to expand...
not optimal for cash games.  too much pitt and washington way too unreliable for cash game.  this would actually make a great gpp lineup though, id throw it in a couple of those.

 
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Megla said:
Second entry for the Sunday Mill

Prescott

Bell-Howard

AB-Hopkins-Beasley

ZMiller

Boswell

Den

Troughs?
Click to expand...
dont like howard + miller in the same gpp lineup.  i just feel like the odds of the bears scoring a bunch and both of them hitting 3x seems so unlikely.  i suppose it's possible and they are pretty cheap so there is that.

 
sooted72 said:
dont like howard + miller in the same gpp lineup.  i just feel like the odds of the bears scoring a bunch and both of them hitting 3x seems so unlikely.  i suppose it's possible and they are pretty cheap so there is that.
Click to expand...
Thought process was

Both are cheap

Det. is horrible against TEs

There is no one to steal touches from Howard

 
In the $5 Sunday NFL Sling, here's my lineup

QB-  Cam      I keep pivoting between Cam and Cousins here

RB-  Dwayne Washington,  Latavious Murray

WR-  Antonio Brown,  Michael Crabtree,  Tyrell Williams

TE- Jordan Reed

K- Lambo

D-  Panthers

Any comments or suggestions would be greatly appreciated.  My thinking is between Cam, Brown, and Reed, I could have the top scorers at their position.  If Detroit can play with a lead, Washington could get 20+ instead of the 11 that he had last week.  The arguments for Crab and Williams have already been made above.  For this lineup, I could come down from Panthers D and upgrade up to Blount.

 
yeah i guess it depends on how many pts you think chi will score too.  despite how cheap they are you need them to combine for ~32 to make gpp value.  thats relying on chi to score a bunch.  and maybe this game turns into a shootout who knows?  im def not ruling it out.  i just think its much more likely you get those pts with miller + a diff rb or howard + a diff te.

fwiw i have a ton of both of these guys in gpps this week.

 
juicifer1269 said:
In the $5 Sunday NFL Sling, here's my lineup

QB-  Cam      I keep pivoting between Cam and Cousins here

RB-  Dwayne Washington,  Latavious Murray

WR-  Antonio Brown,  Michael Crabtree,  Tyrell Williams

TE- Jordan Reed

K- Lambo

D-  Panthers

Any comments or suggestions would be greatly appreciated.  My thinking is between Cam, Brown, and Reed, I could have the top scorers at their position.  If Detroit can play with a lead, Washington could get 20+ instead of the 11 that he had last week.  The arguments for Crab and Williams have already been made above.  For this lineup, I could come down from Panthers D and upgrade up to Blount.
Click to expand...
Or I can pivot from L Murray to Ingram and go a little more expensive at K

 
lmack said:
Interesting to see over on his FD blog that Dodds stacks all his cash lineups. 
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He runs those cash lineups out in triples and quintuples tho, and that's a key component to his strategy. He has a higher variance that you might like in straight cash, but he hedges that variance by getting a higher return than double when he does hit. If I remember from last year, he likes QB+WR2 for those stacks. 

 
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