BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Unfortunately its not an either or as other owner wants both and I understand, but as much as I would like to add Mixon and Brown ... I already have AJ Green so my WR would be getting up there in age
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
RC94
Footballguy
I wouldn't do it, and if you want to shop Bell there are probably other teams who would be interested.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
My current personal top 48 Dynasty players:
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Todd Gurley
- Saquan Barkley
- Michael Thomas
- Alvin Kamara
- Davante Adams
- Odell Beckham
- Mike Evans
- Zeke Elliott
- Christian McCaffrey
- Tyreek Hill
- Antonio Brown
- Kareem Hunt
- Stefon Diggs
- Keenan Allen
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- David Johnson
- Julio Jones
- Melvin Gordon
- Le'Veon Bell
- Joe Mixon
- Adam Thielen
- AJ Green
- James Conner
- Pat Mahomes
- Jarvis Landry
- Dalvin Cook
- Leonard Fournette
- Brandin Cooks
- Evan Engram
- DeShaun Watson
- Corey Davis
- Amari Cooper
- George Kittle
- Travis Kelce
- Allen Robinson
- Devonta Freeman
- Sony Michel
- Cooper Kupp
- Hunter Henry
- Kerryon Johnson
- Nick Chubb
- Carson Wentz
- Ty Hilton
- Zach Ertz
- Alshon Jeffery
- Aaron Rodgers
- Russell Wilson
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
I love Adams... Mostly because of Rodgers though of course. He just seems so safe as the best weapon in that offense.
Yeah I thought about dropping AB lower, but he could pull a Jerry Rice us.
Elevencents
Footballguy
JackReacher
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Engram at 30 shocks me?? Am I the only one who doesn’t view him as a top 3 dynasty TE at the moment?
EBF
Footballguy
I just can't see myself taking anyone but Barkley at 1.01. Elite talent. Whole career ahead of him.
With someone like Hopkins or AB you are overpaying because of what they did in the past, but those seasons are dead and gone. It's like buying Julio or AJG a couple years ago. You are paying a premium for security and sacrificing longevity. Personally, I skew young with dynasty rosters and would rather undershoot with young players than get older guys who are going to be hard to move in the near future.
I like Diggs, but he's the second best WR on his own team and has exactly zero 1000+ receiving seasons so far. The guy is electric, but he's also a bit of a lightweight and I don't trust him enough to have him as the WR1 for my dynasty team. He's more of a depth guy to me.
You have to like what Kamara and Thomas have done in NO, but how much of their production is the offense? When Brees finally slows down or either of those guys moves teams, I can see some dropoff. They're both very good in their own right, but I'm not sure they're top 3 in the NFL at their positions.
Sleeper to fly up this list: DJ Moore. Look at what he did last week. The guy has some freaky athleticism and almost resembles a RB when he gets the ball in his hands since he's big and explosive, but also a very loose runner. It's not a guarantee, but I can see him taking a big leap and becoming a special player.
With someone like Hopkins or AB you are overpaying because of what they did in the past, but those seasons are dead and gone. It's like buying Julio or AJG a couple years ago. You are paying a premium for security and sacrificing longevity. Personally, I skew young with dynasty rosters and would rather undershoot with young players than get older guys who are going to be hard to move in the near future.
I like Diggs, but he's the second best WR on his own team and has exactly zero 1000+ receiving seasons so far. The guy is electric, but he's also a bit of a lightweight and I don't trust him enough to have him as the WR1 for my dynasty team. He's more of a depth guy to me.
You have to like what Kamara and Thomas have done in NO, but how much of their production is the offense? When Brees finally slows down or either of those guys moves teams, I can see some dropoff. They're both very good in their own right, but I'm not sure they're top 3 in the NFL at their positions.
Sleeper to fly up this list: DJ Moore. Look at what he did last week. The guy has some freaky athleticism and almost resembles a RB when he gets the ball in his hands since he's big and explosive, but also a very loose runner. It's not a guarantee, but I can see him taking a big leap and becoming a special player.
ZWK
Footballguy
Agreed with Barkley as the clear #1 and Gurley as the clear #2. Less sure about the rest of the top 12; here's what I've got:
1. Saquon Barkley
2. Todd Gurley
3. Odell Beckham
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Alvin Kamara
6. Michael Thomas
7. Ezekiel Elliott
8. Mike Evans
9. Christian McCaffrey
10. Kareem Hunt
11. Tyreek Hill
12. Keenan Allen
1. Saquon Barkley
2. Todd Gurley
3. Odell Beckham
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Alvin Kamara
6. Michael Thomas
7. Ezekiel Elliott
8. Mike Evans
9. Christian McCaffrey
10. Kareem Hunt
11. Tyreek Hill
12. Keenan Allen
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’d take Mixon, Gordon, Juju, and Thielen over Allen, at least.ty247 said:
And Tyler Boyd is easily a top 48 guy, IMO.
I don't either. Was saying he was overpriced before the season. He remained in the same tier with his fellow 2nd year TEs for me (Howard, Kittle, Njoku) and his high number of drops as a rookie actually scared me off a bit. I'd also lump Henry in this this group since he's right there in age.packer_junkie said:
On the topic of TE, has Ertz passed Kelce for anyone else? He's having a hell of a season, is a year younger, and doesn't have any microfracture surgery to worry about.
Weird to see Kerryon above Chubb. I'd have Chubb much higher up this list. I like his dynasty outlook better than guys like Gordon and DJ. Not sure why Dalvin is ahead of him. By now they've both played in about the same number of games.
I think Kerryon is above Chubb due to the list being based on PPR scoring.
In that case Kerryon has shown a lot more pass catching prowess than Chubb and you can sort of justify the ranking. As soon as we see proof of Chubb becoming more involved in the passing game though I think Chubb's ceiling immediately becomes higher.
I think Ertz is right there with Kelce 1A / 1B. The year younger point being off-set by the sheer explosiveness of the KC offense. Is the historical microfracture surgery something to even consider at this point in his career?
Allen is two years younger than Thielen, which is enough to put him over the top for me.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I don't have Boyd as top 48, he needs to show that he can separate from tight coverage and work from the outside in addition to the slot before I'm ready to put him there.
The same could also be said for JuJu...
The same could also be said for JuJu...
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Blick
Footballguy
In two games without Brown (weeks 16 and 17 (Houston and Cleveland)) he went for 16 rec, 218 yards, and 2 TDs and he's only 22.
If we were talking RoS redraft rankings then sure, but with dynasty we're looking at talent and I'll take Chubb's vision, size, and breakaway speed over known pass catching all day. Maybe Chubb is a 30 rec guy while Kerryon is a 50 rec guy, but I'm guessing Chubb's TDs and yards easily close that gap. FWIW, I like both. I just like Chubb a lot more. I think Chubb has Gurley upside, including from the receiving standpoint. While I like Kerryon, I just don' see that kind of upside with him.
As for microfracture surgery, it just depends on when you start worrying about longevity. I always think about it, even with rookies (for instance, Kerryon is over 2 years younger than Michel, last year it was notable to me that Godwin was over 2 years younger than Golladay). It's part of the reason I'm not high on Gordon. Every player I ever acquire I need to be ready to keep to the end because the trade market is not always as fluid as people make it out to be and you could just get stuck with a guy. So for me, I'd rather have Ertz than Kelce.
I totally agree on all accounts with respect to kerryon vs chubb. I was just putting myself in the shoes of the poster who had him listed the way he did.
Kelces vs Ertz is basically preference. Can completely understand someone having one over the other. I think the consensus to be had is that either way they are 1 and 2 right now.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I don't think the fantasy stats prove that he can win 1 on 1 matchups. Not saying it doesn't mean anything but stats over a small sample size are not enough for me to elevate a dynasty ranking above proven elite players.
waiver wire
Footballguy
whats the current trade value of aj green (14 team dynasty super flex and 1 ppr)
I posted that I was looking for a wr in my trade bait box and what I was willingly to package to make a deal and I got an offer that I felt was beyond brutal and rejected with comments
I want to see if I was in the wrong as I haven't really been paying attention to ff as much
I posted that I was looking for a wr in my trade bait box and what I was willingly to package to make a deal and I got an offer that I felt was beyond brutal and rejected with comments
I want to see if I was in the wrong as I haven't really been paying attention to ff as much
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think that’s a reasonable stance. But Thielen is on pace to double Allen’s best year, VBD wise. I expect his pace to slow some—but moving him for Allen would be a sizable hit to my 2-3 year window.
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
I agree that Chubb is more talented that Kerryon, but for PPR there is the receptions leaning in Johnson`s favor as well as probably situation. Chubb is one of those guys that will need to overcome the situation to reach his potential. I don't trust Cleveland to hire decent enough coaches or use him a lot in the passing game with DJJ there.
Chubb might be stuck in the Gurley pre-Mcvay purgatory for lord knows how long in that tire fire that is Cleveland (dumpster fires eventually burn out...) Watch Haslem bring in Jeff Fischer.... ?
I really love Chubb, but I think Cleveland caps his upside until proven otherwise.
Chubb might be stuck in the Gurley pre-Mcvay purgatory for lord knows how long in that tire fire that is Cleveland (dumpster fires eventually burn out...) Watch Haslem bring in Jeff Fischer.... ?
I really love Chubb, but I think Cleveland caps his upside until proven otherwise.
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Isn't VBD based on redraft preseason projections? (really not sure - I remember looking into it a long time ago and not being sold on it)
While the coaching is a mess, I feel like Cleveland is headed in the right direction as a franchise. Their OL is decent, the DL is really good, the QB looks promising, the salary cap is in extremely good shape. The only thing they really need on offense is an outside WR. I think Cleveland could be a nice spot for Chubb. It's actually where I was hoping Barkley went, as I think the OL and management in New York is worse than Cleveland.
It could be argued that the Detroit coaching is not looking much better than Cleveland with their inability to get the running game going for years and tipping their plays to the defenses. Not to mention Ebron looking better in Indy than he ever did in Detroit (I think this is JBC's third year as OC). I won't be surprised to see Abdullah looking better in 2019 than he ever did in Detroit...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The VBD he's referring to is their comparative value based on actual results/stats - not the preseason draft approach based on projections.
Thielen is on pace to beat Harrison's single season reception record and close to being on pace to beat Calvin Johnson's single season receiving yardage record. Seems untouchable in redraft for this year, but for dynasty I guess it depends on if you think that despite the pace most likely slowing, the Thielen-Cousins connection will keep putting up big numbers the next few years.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Exactly.
As of now, I expect Thielen to provide more value over the rest of his career, despite the age difference.
Is that considered VBD? I genuinely didn't know there were multiple versions. I had read (could be incorrect, though) that Diggs was the one facing the better corners. If true, that kind of puts a damper on Thielen's numbers for future years. Either way, I'd put my money on Keenan long term.Concept Coop said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
VBD refers to both a draft method and the measure of production used in said method. Value Based Drafting is the idea that you should value (and thus draft) players based on the advantage they provide over their position group. (I wish they'd have used VBD for the draft method and VORP (Value over replacement player) for the production measure.)
VBD/VORP = Player's points - Baseline points
Thielen: 300 points = 100 VBD (300-200)
Allen: 250 = 50 VBD (250 - 200)
Baseline (Average starting WR): 200 = 0 VBD (200-200)
And Thielen draws the opposing team's slot corner, just like Allen. Sometimes that's the best corner on the field, sometimes it's the worst.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Kerryon has looked fantastic to me. At least as good as Chubb, and on more carries. I wouldn't say Chubb is more talented, personally.kittenmittens said:
I don't think people can claim that Chubb is more talented in his overall game. That likely goes to Kerryon just based on his receiving prowess and pass blocking. Kerryon is the total package, 3 down RB.
Chubb has him beat hands down in the SPARQ ratings and Chubb's ceiling is probably higher based on that.
Zyphros
Footballguy
He's a tough one to peg for sure. I would think he's widely considered anywhere from RB10- RB20. Even if you don't believe in his talent, you can't deny the opportunity he has and what he's done with it so far. That likely puts him in the mid RB2 category for those people. Any RB after ~RB8 is kind of random and I could see a case for Mack to be up there with a bunch of others. I own him in most of my leagues and I wouldn't sell for anything less than a top tiered 1st if I felt like I could use the pick more than the player. Otherwise I'm holding.
Zyphros
Footballguy
On another note, I saw in one of my FFPC leagues that Greg Olsen was dropped. First I was shocked, and second it made me wonder if everyone assumes retirement after this year with his injuries piled up. I'm curious to hear what others might think about his future because he is 34 but he's been so good that maybe he has more years in the tank?
tkrull
Footballguy
If he was coming back, he would have had surgery on the foot. I assume he has a future in broadcasting.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Who are the best players would you move for the 1.1 in PPR formats?
It’s been a while since we’ve had a class without at least one elite RB prospect. As a result, it makes it hard to know how much value the pick will have in April and May.
Diggs? Cook? Fournette? Juju? Guice? Kerryon? Brown? Chubb? Allen? Julio? Green?
It’s been a while since we’ve had a class without at least one elite RB prospect. As a result, it makes it hard to know how much value the pick will have in April and May.
Diggs? Cook? Fournette? Juju? Guice? Kerryon? Brown? Chubb? Allen? Julio? Green?
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Zyphros
Footballguy
With the 1.01 being anyone in a range of 3-6 different players it's so hard to answer that. I expect it to eventually be a WR so that naturally deflates that value a bit more IMO. Probably easier to say I wouldn't move JuJu, Guice, Kerryon, Chubb for it but I THINK I'd move all the others.
I expect the 1.01 to be around startup pick where Corey Davis was going when he came out. I honestly don't remember but I think it was in the 30's? If you compare that startup pick to all of those players, the players would likely be more valuable though. Fun little thought this morning though.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Was offered Burton & Edelman for my Gronk & Golladay. I'm on the fence with Shaheen coming back soon. Also, should I try to give MVS or Boyd instead of Golladay? Yay or nay?
This is dynasty PPR. I have Herndon & Gesicki behind Gronk. I tried for OJ Howard instead, but no dice.
This is dynasty PPR. I have Herndon & Gesicki behind Gronk. I tried for OJ Howard instead, but no dice.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I like Gronk and Golliday and MVS and Boyd more than both Burton and Edelman.
You should just sit tight.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Can we talk Mixon for a minute? He's so talented, but that offense doesn't run through him. And even when it does on the odd occasion, he doesn't really do anything super special with that opportunity. There has been no "coming out" party or anything but he's been rather consistent. His biggest game was Tampa but that was shootout and a bad team so we expect him to do really well. But I feel like he didn't announce his presence to the league or anything with any of his performances to date.
Now to pivot a little to other RB's like Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson and possibly Rashaad Penny after last night, all who I feel like have had that breakout performance.
And the question I have is, is it outrageous to possibly prefer any one of those to Mixon. It's not like Mixon has been bad at all, he's been really good, but I feel like he carries more value from name purposes rather than usage.
I mentioned it at the top of this page, but any RB after the top8 or so could be listed in almost any order, but with recent breakout's by these 1st or 2nd year guys, do they get the nod vs guys like Mixon. The only guarantee's I see are Barkley, Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, Zeke, McCaffrey, Gordon, and maybe Conner? Other than that I could see someone being a little bold and put Mack > Fournette or something.
Now to pivot a little to other RB's like Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson and possibly Rashaad Penny after last night, all who I feel like have had that breakout performance.
And the question I have is, is it outrageous to possibly prefer any one of those to Mixon. It's not like Mixon has been bad at all, he's been really good, but I feel like he carries more value from name purposes rather than usage.
I mentioned it at the top of this page, but any RB after the top8 or so could be listed in almost any order, but with recent breakout's by these 1st or 2nd year guys, do they get the nod vs guys like Mixon. The only guarantee's I see are Barkley, Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, Zeke, McCaffrey, Gordon, and maybe Conner? Other than that I could see someone being a little bold and put Mack > Fournette or something.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’m still buying Mixon. I’d consider taking Chubb over him in standard formats, but not PPR. I’d take him over Fournette, Conner, and Gordon. I have him in the RB6-8 range right now.
From the outside, it probably looks like I’m putting too much stock in his name, but I see it as investing in his ceiling. I’ll grant that he hasn’t played up to my ranking yet, but he’s flashed enough to keep me hopeful. And while he hasn’t set the world on fire, he’s done enough to solidify a solid floor: he’s a starting caliber 3 down back.
So I’ll buy hoping that he’s Barkley Jr. one day, but will be content enough if the current product is all he is.
From the outside, it probably looks like I’m putting too much stock in his name, but I see it as investing in his ceiling. I’ll grant that he hasn’t played up to my ranking yet, but he’s flashed enough to keep me hopeful. And while he hasn’t set the world on fire, he’s done enough to solidify a solid floor: he’s a starting caliber 3 down back.
So I’ll buy hoping that he’s Barkley Jr. one day, but will be content enough if the current product is all he is.
