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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
With them probably moving on from a 33 year old Garcon, I agree the organization is due for a talent infusion of some kind at the position, but despite a few notable cases, rookie WRs tend to take a year to develop and the bust rate is not insignificant. So if they were to draft a wide receiver it wouldn't ruin Pettis' value in my eyes, although a 1st round pick would be worrisome since they are drafting 1.04. A second round pick would be on par with Pettis' draft stock (they traded up to 2.12 to draft him).
But you're not alone in your talent evaluation. I remember Matt Harmon was lukewarm on him in his reception perception.
The main concern is if the Steelers are serious about trading AB. I don't see how it could happen with the way signing bonuses get accelerated with trades and them being up against the cap, but if they find a way, I could see SF being a prime candidate.
Strangely, there are people on Reddit convinced Goodwin is going to be the WR1 next year.
Sup guys, I'm in a Te premium (1ppr vs .5 ppr for rb and wrs) I've been getting alot of feelers sent to me about chris Herndon. I'm not really sure where to value as I didnt see him play much and I know he has a lot of upside still. In weak at wr and strong at te. Any thoughts?
Pwingles
Footballguy
DLF has him at the #18 overall dyno TE, i think that is about the right range at the moment, but I see his value trending higher.bmsarvis said:
In this case im not sure the TE premium is that much of a factor unless he gets more volume, which might happen. He was clearly more than a RZ guy, and the trust seemed to be there from Darnold, I really like the kid moving forward. Honestly., depending on the offer, you may consider moving a guy you currently have viewed as ahead of him and hang onto him.
In the league I own him, I would be wanting a pretty high 2nd for him. But in that particular league, it is 1.5 ppr and he is arguably my TE2 after injuries.
If someone had knocked you in the head and put you out of commission for a few days prior to week 2 waivers last year you'd not even realize the great favor they just did you.
I did not cut Kittle, kind of worse. FFPC league in late training camp I dealt Kittle AND a third round pick for Joe Williams.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'm surprised you got an offer like that honestly. He showed pretty well as a rookie this year, only going to grow more with Darnold and him together but he doesn't exactly pop off the page. That offer seems high for a guy like that. Herndon doesn't seem like anything more than a backup fantasy TE, and since he's not top tier, he's barely worth a whole lot. That goes for anyone after ~TE6, it's a pick your poison type of deal after that. You might have a favorite or two but they aren't worth much. You're probably looking around ADP 80-100 I'd guess.
JackReacher
Footballguy
No but I found it highly credible and told the offering team I would be ready right now to give Herndon and either 2.9 or Herndon and my 2020#2 for a 2020#1 instead of Edelman and the 2.3 but otherwise we should check back with each other after the playoffs. While the chances are slim of an Edelman injury it's still a chance and at his age an ACL injury could kill off his value, which might be a one year type thing as is.
This team of mine has Gronk, who I think will retire, but even if he does and I dealt Herndon I'd still have the Colts Ebron/Doyle duo and with picks at 1, 9, 15 and 21 in a TE loaded draft I'd for sure be able to add another one but I still wanted to see if I could get some clarity on Gronk.
Also my team's thinnest position is WR and when I turned down the trade last week I knew it was a strong looking TE class, but more I examine it I think it's even stronger then I anticipated a week ago, so in theory a chance to draft a similar TE prospect with the 2.3 pick.
So saying all that if I opt to do the deal later and that owner has changed their mind I fully realize I might have made a mistake, maybe even likely. If I did it's got less to do with what I was offered, more to do with wanting to use every non essential valued type assets I have for 2020 first round picks, especially picks that have a chance to be non playoff teams. When I turned down the trade what I really hoped would happen was they'd be interested in my offer for the 2020 first instead.
I thought it was a good offer and addressed some of that above.
Edelman is obviously a really good player right now and would if he was on my team last season would have been my second best WR but he's also about to be 33 years old on the last year of his contract. The pick could have afforded me a chance to pick a good TE prospect since to me that's the deepest position in the draft and at 2.3 I think a solid TE prospect will be available. And like I said above if Edelman remains injury free in playoffs and I go back and offer this trade to the team and they refuse I'll probably think I should have accepted it.
The number one reason I turned down the trade is I'm just not sure what to make of Herndon. I liked him plenty coming in, #5 TE for me predraft and #4 after and today I think the only rookie TE from this last draft class I'd take over him is Goedert. But like you not sure he's got huge upside. But how do we really know that? In terms of just performance we just discussed Kittle and his rookie year numbers were 43/515/2 on 63 targets and 15 games which is arguably worse then Herndon's 39/502/4 on 56 targets and 14 games. Now you can say, "but he's not the athlete that Kittle is" and I would agree with you but to me you don't need to be an incredible athlete to be a big time fantasy TE, especially in 1.5 PPR. Take Witten for example, not some amazing athlete and granted I got to go in the way back time machine to almost a different era but his rookie year numbers were 35/347/1 on 49 targets and 15 games, for sure worse then Herndons.
Then with all of that factor in I think Herndon has his longterm QB in place.
Now I do have the 2.3 pick to consider but I'm age averse in dynasty. The way I tend to view things is if I miss on Edelman I missed on what I think is a one year rock solid WR2, best case. I miss on Herndon I could miss on along term fixture. Edelman might help me next year, Herndon could burn me for close to a decade if I dealt him off.
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Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Edit: wrong thread - posting in completed trades.
Not involved:
Thielen for 2 Firsts in 2019 and 1 in 2020.
and
1.2, 1.5, 2.4, Antonio Brown, Sam Darnold,
OBJ, Dalvin Cook, Kyle Rudolph, 2 - 2020 2nds.
Not involved:
Thielen for 2 Firsts in 2019 and 1 in 2020.
and
1.2, 1.5, 2.4, Antonio Brown, Sam Darnold,
OBJ, Dalvin Cook, Kyle Rudolph, 2 - 2020 2nds.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Robert Foster is a guy I think is worth investing in at his current price. I think he has top 20 upside with Allen.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Thoughts on keeping Kupp for 4 years vs OBJ for 2? One or the other. PPR and long TD bonuses.
Rams offense isn’t going to do anything but get better. Shouldn’t be much movement in the offseason. Kupp is Goff’s guy in the RZ. Has phenomenal hands. Still young. Could be good for 70/1000/8+.
OBJ. Talent is unquestioned. Always a threat to finish Top 5. Barkley a year older (Engram as well to a lesser extent as far as impact) to open up the offense. Who is gonna be throwing him the ball? Will he play 16 games? Will his potential to be a head case rear it’s ugly head?
I think I’m higher on OBJ than most the board. Especially as his reputation started nose diving at the end of the year. Part may be because I’m a new owner. But man, I really like Kupp. Could be a sneaky top 10 finish. Having a lot of trouble with this one - and of course it won’t be entirely clear until the Giants QB situation is.
Rams offense isn’t going to do anything but get better. Shouldn’t be much movement in the offseason. Kupp is Goff’s guy in the RZ. Has phenomenal hands. Still young. Could be good for 70/1000/8+.
OBJ. Talent is unquestioned. Always a threat to finish Top 5. Barkley a year older (Engram as well to a lesser extent as far as impact) to open up the offense. Who is gonna be throwing him the ball? Will he play 16 games? Will his potential to be a head case rear it’s ugly head?
I think I’m higher on OBJ than most the board. Especially as his reputation started nose diving at the end of the year. Part may be because I’m a new owner. But man, I really like Kupp. Could be a sneaky top 10 finish. Having a lot of trouble with this one - and of course it won’t be entirely clear until the Giants QB situation is.
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Well I'm clearly getting lowballed. I honestly thought 2 seconds would be a good trade for him but I didnt suggest the trade because I want quite sure where to value him just yet. But I've only been offered Eddie Jackson chi s and a late 4th lol. Safeties are on the wire every year. I'll keep ya guys updated if it progresses any further. I appreciate the feedback for sure.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Maybe, but it's an interesting assumption considering their trend has been in the opposite direction lately.
Goff is only 24. They beat Seattle and KC before losing to Chicago and Philly. I think you might be looking too closely if you're seeing a trend. Their cap situation is right around league average. I feel like it is a safe assumption that they'll at least plateau if not improve.
FF Wiseguy
Footballguy
12 Team PPR, I have an old team that is weak at WR and TE. Thinking about this offer to move Kamara:
Kamara, D Lewis, 2019 4th
for
D Adams, Pettis, Michel, I Thomas, 2019 2nd
Too much? Too little? I could downgrade Michel to Ekeler (I have Gordon) if I'm asking too much.
Would leave me with Gordon, J White, McKinnon, and whoever I acquire at RB
Kamara, D Lewis, 2019 4th
for
D Adams, Pettis, Michel, I Thomas, 2019 2nd
Too much? Too little? I could downgrade Michel to Ekeler (I have Gordon) if I'm asking too much.
Would leave me with Gordon, J White, McKinnon, and whoever I acquire at RB
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Their o line could tank (very good chance they get worse actually), Gurley could get hurt, defenses could catch up to their scheme, etc. Hard to say a top 3 offense the last 2 years can only get better.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Tough call but the way I'd be looking at this due to timing of Kupp's injury is 3.5 years of Kupp vs 2 years of OBJ.
The primary reason I turned down the Edelman and 2.3 for Herndon offer I discussed earlier was I wanted a 2020 first.
After posting what I did yesterday I got to looking around a bit more at this awesome and deep TE class, a class so good that unless you don't like spending premium picks on rookie TE's that the conversation of how bad the first and second round of this draft looks is a different conversation in PPR vs TE premium/dual flex leagues like FFPC. So along with looking at the TE's, McDaniels likely returning to NE and running same system and my teams main need as WR I went back to look at doing a deal with the Edelman owner.
So last night at 12:45 I made the Edelman owner two offers. The one I really wanted him to accept was Herndon, 2020 second and throw in Curtis Samuel for his 2020 first. The other offer was the one he made me, Herndon for 2.3 and Edelman.
I went to bed after that offer and woke up to see at 12:48 he'd accepted my offer, a surprising off-season late night insta -accept. I excitedly checked my email to see which offer he took and was a bit bummed to see he took the Edelman offer. I'm still ok with the trade and will try and use the 2.3 with some other assets to get that 2020 first I really wanted.
The OL is a valid concern - I was in the minority that felt the Rams would've been better served signing someone like Albert Wilson and spending that 1st + that cap money on OL instead of Cooks (not to say Cooks isn't good, but I felt they should prioritize OL considering they already had Woods and Kupp locked in for years to come at WR). But keep in mind, the Rams ranked 14th in pass attempts this year. Plenty of room to grow in that regard and passing is the most efficient in terms of yards and scoring, plus with PPR it generates a lot more FF scoring than rushing.voiceofunreason said:
Boone22
Footballguy
Chris Herndon pleaded guilty to DWI on Wednesday stemming from a June accident.
Herndon was arrested on June 4 after ramming into another vehicle in addition to a railroad car and its attached trailer. The 76-year-old driver of the other vehicle escaped with a gashed arm. Herndon is lucky that was the extent of his damage. He's now going to face a suspension in 2019.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Yeah probably something but this happened long before the season and the team and league knew about it so I wouldn’t get carried away.
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Last offseason I traded straight up: got AJ, gave my 1st, which was #7 or 8 overall, can't remember.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Ben & Jerry's said:
Feels like a hold. I'm in a very knowledgeable/competitive and active league (devy too, so his pedigree is known) that even has 3 Bills fans in it to boot...can't get people to value him as more than a throw-in right now. It's consolidation season for me so everyone knows what I'm trying, but still. The love is not there.
scott46984
Footballguy
Might be a moderate long shot, but if KC's Damien Williams ends up being the main back in the playoffs over a healthy and available Spencer Ware his price will likely never be cheaper than right now. Obviously risk that nothing significant materializes, but if he ultimately ends up being KC's lead back going forward there's a hell of an upside.
Definitely a long shot. They gave him RBBC money. If they sign someone or draft a decent rookie, his current price would look like highway robbery at that point. Very dicey to acquire him right now. I'm guessing this is his career peak stock price. But he's been a penny stock until now, so being worth $1 is a huge jump and if that long shot comes through, he might be worth $5 later. But Williams is like trading a biotech stock. Do you really want to buy after good news but before phase 3 trial results?
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
I was able to flip him for pick 2.05 (15 overall) in my league with IDP, which is roughly comparable to pick 12 overall in non-IDP (LBs go pretty early in our drafts).
Zyphros
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Hmmm. I have him in a league and didn't really think he had any value. Nobody has ever inquired about him and i felt offering him for a 2nd would be insulting to other team. I'm gonna try to move him for any 2nd and see if anyone bites.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
What do people think of Melvin's value in the long-term? He's gonna be 26 in April. I gotta be honest, I'm really really starting to think about trading him off as all these knee issues are spooking me. I've had some people asking me about his availability. What are others doing?
If you own him are you considering moving him?
If you don't own him and are in the market for a RB, how high is he on your list?
If you own him are you considering moving him?
If you don't own him and are in the market for a RB, how high is he on your list?
Zyphros
Footballguy
He's on his 5th year option for 2019 with no long term contract. I would think he's going to hold out at least a little if not more to make sure he gets paid. If he gets a long term contract in the offseason I'd feel a lot more comfortable as a long term top10 dynasty RB. But as of now he doesn't have that security on the same team just yet. I have him ranked as if he gets that done though as RB6.
The closer and closer we get to TC and preseason and no long term contract (if we even get that far), I think the lowest I'd go for him is near RB10-12 with the assumption that he'd play on his 5th year option instead of holding out.
scott46984
Footballguy
Agree with much of this, although the best case scenario I'm considering is that if he does well in the playoffs and if that causes KC to decide he can be "the guy" he's potentially worth much more than the $5 analogy above, maybe several times that. Longshot and risky yes, but if that scenario develops then right now, "after the good news but before the phase 3 trial results" to use the analogy above, makes this exactly the time to buy. Fun discussion, but I guess this is mostly moot given that there's very little time to make a move given the Chiefs game is in less than 24 hours.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Then I watch him play like he did today and I wonder if I sold him too low. He’s a tough guy to put a price tag on but he passes the eye test.
bostonfred
Footballguy
In Damien Williams 4 starts he has 477 total yards and 5 touchdowns. The game before that he had 30 yards and two touchdowns.
The window to buy is closing. I saw people talking about moving him for an early second before his 154 yards and a touchdown today - i don't think that's available anymore. Curious what you would pay now, and what kind of deal you'd turn down if you owned him.
The window to buy is closing. I saw people talking about moving him for an early second before his 154 yards and a touchdown today - i don't think that's available anymore. Curious what you would pay now, and what kind of deal you'd turn down if you owned him.
Never trust the eye test. I think CJA is a decent talent, but he's racked up 422 yards rushing (6.4 ypc) over his past 3 games. The eye test over that span says he's a stud.
Back to Williams, the guy has primarily played as a 3rd down back his entire career and didn't eclipse 4.0 YPC in any of his four previous seasons. YPC is not a great stat, but typically playing as the 3rd down back inflates YPC which is why I think it is notable here. 9 out of 10 times a career backup receiving a backup contract is not going to go into the next season as the starter. This isn't a strong RB class at the top, but there are plenty of guys that could make this a messy RBBC with Williams, if not take over.
If that isn't available anymore there will be a lot of bag holders in 4 months. Like I mentioned, CJA has 422 yards rushing in 3 games. What are people paying for him? He's only a year older than Williams. Small samples on good offenses mean very little. What means more is the money and this is backup money: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/damien-williams-15723/
Stranger things have happened - Forsett got his first 200 carry season at age 29, two years older than Williams will be next season - but he'd flashed more than Williams earlier in his career than Williams. Either way, it's not impossible that he's the starter next year, but the odds are very slim. If people are turning down early seconds, they are not playing the odds. I'd say it's akin to hitting on 18 in blackjack. Not the smart play, but every once in a while those players get a 3 and feel totally justified ignoring the odds.
Boone22
Footballguy
It’ll be really interesting if KC tries to sign Anderson in the off season. They kicked his tires when Hunt was released but they passed on him. Gotta think they may be rethinking that move now that they’ve seen him in LA. Having a combo of Anderson and Williams would allow them to use draft picks on defense and not waste an early pick on a RB.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There's an obvious major difference between the two players - Williams has a decent chance to remain the starting back for KC. Anderson has no chance to be LA's starting back next year.
If we go through free agency and the NFL draft with KC not spending big money or early draft capital at RB his trade value will increase and a second round pick will look like a bargain.
With that said I've sold in 2 of the 4 dynasty leagues I owned him as there is risk, but also because he was part of a package where I landed the best player in the deal (Jeffrey and Elliot).
Oh, I know - I didn't mean to make this about CJA. I was mainly pointing out how meaningless it is that Williams put up 477 total yards in 4 games if CJA has almost done that in rushing alone in 3 games. Small samples can be fun, but don't mean much. Especially on a potent offense.
But out of curiosity, when you say he's got a decent chance, what odds are you thinking? 2 years for $5.1M is clearly backup money. I wouldn't fault them for rolling with him at that price if they think he can do what they need out of the position, but it just isn't common for that kind of thing to happen in the NFL these days. I couldn't imagine trading an early 2nd for him... not because I value the player I could draft, but I just know how valuable those picks become during the draft. You can often flip them for a future 1st or a veteran with ~5 years of utility left.
You're definitely right his stock will rise if he survives free agency and the NFL draft, but I think the odds of that are 10% at best.
And just for fun, bonus speculation question: if he survives, is he anything more than a 1 year rental? On a cheap 2-year deal, they'd almost certainly add some competition in the 2nd year if they don't in the 1st.
It doesn't have to be early draft capital to threaten his value or his starting job, he was an undrafted FA himself in Miami. His contract extension 2 weeks ago is peanuts and easily cuttable. This isn't a 23 year old Arian Foster were talking about, who broke-out kind of similarly at the end of the season (and who got to see the Texans spend a 2nd round pick on a RB after he broke out at the end of 2009.) DW's got short-term value as a potential Chief's starter but he's always going to be looking over his back at any warm body they bring in. Even if he holds onto the job for all year and you win the gamble, he'll be 28 next year when RB trade value starts to crater and people will wonder what young guy the Chiefs will look to bring in to take over.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If he holds the job next year you will have won the trade already and anything on top of that is just gravy.
Personally I'm going to look to buy Williams after they likely draft a RB and his value tanks. These incumbents behind rookie RBs can always be had for peanuts and half the time they end up holding onto the job for at least another year anyway (see Chris Carson and Peyton Barber this year).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't see how I can realistically put any odds on it - so I'll just stand with "decent chance". The Chiefs were smart to sign him before they had to since he did not have as much negotiation power as he would have now - and I can understand why he'd rather have the security.
Maybe it's "backup money" but $4MM a year is still decent money for a RB and I do not see why it matters either way. If he continues to impress and they make it to the Super Bowl the incentive to replace him diminishes. Getting a starting RB "on the cheap" isn't a bad thing for them heading into 2019.
And like I said the while the value of that second could shoot up closer to draft day - Williams' value can potentially skyrocket if he survives FA and the draft.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Sure but he is the incumbent and this is a weak draft class. The odds of him losing the job diminish if they don't take a day 1 or day 2 RB - and there was a study done by @gianmarco a few years back that showed that the incumbent generally held onto the job when challenged by a RB taken after round 1.
