Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Interseptopus 5,722]

Where do people put value of Derrick Henry compared to Aaron Jones? 

[Zyphros 1,897]

1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Afraid I don't know because I don't play in standard leagues but with so much smoke around OBJ getting moved if I was looking to buy Engram I'd hurry up and if I owned Engram he'd be off the market.

I can say in any format if OBJ is moved I would put Engram as TE4.

I actually just moved Engram from TE8 in my dynasty rankings to TE5.  Last year I was all aboard him but then the Giants happened.  If you're going to buy him, now's the time to someone who hasn't heard the OBJ rumors.  

[Jello_Biafra 417]

Kittle and Engram have a lot in common. Both broke out when there was no competition for targets. The niners have nobody at WR and the Giants lost all their starting WRs in one game. Engram feasted on all those targets, but they dried up when the WRs came back. Kittle looks like a monster but I wonder how good he would do if SF had any kind of receiving corps?

[skinfanjon 237]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Where do people put value of Derrick Henry compared to Aaron Jones? 

Pretty even to me.  I prefer Henry but could see both sides. 

[voiceofunreason 1,028]

31 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Kittle and Engram have a lot in common. Both broke out when there was no competition for targets. The niners have nobody at WR and the Giants lost all their starting WRs in one game. Engram feasted on all those targets, but they dried up when the WRs came back. Kittle looks like a monster but I wonder how good he would do if SF had any kind of receiving corps?

Kittle had really good efficiency. Engram was terrible as a rookie.

[menobrown 3,725]

5 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Kittle had really good efficiency. Engram was terrible as a rookie.

I don't care as much about a TE's rookie season as his second season and Engram was a lot more efficient last season so not really holding his rookie year against him.

Oddly enough Kittle's year one numbers  (63/43/515/2) are close to identical as Engrams year two numbers. (64/45/577/3) and Kittle is a year older so maybe? I sure won't predict Engram to surpass Kittle's production last year but if they move Odell it's hard to not see a major breakout.

 

[Interseptopus 5,722]

2 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Pretty even to me.  I prefer Henry but could see both sides. 

FBG March chart has Jones at "16" (rb 17) and Henry at "12' (rb 22). curious. trying to work a trade 

[skinfanjon 237]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

FBG March chart has Jones at "16" (rb 17) and Henry at "12' (rb 22). curious. trying to work a trade 

Mizelle ADP has Jones going 4.2 and Henry 4.10 in startups as of last month.  I wouldn't expect much spread between them unless someone is all in on one of them.

[Flying Elvis 797]

With the Bell saga finally over (well, at least he now has a new contract), does anyone want to take a stab at his trade value. How about that of James Conner? 

I like the moves the Jets have made on the offensive side and think there's good potential in that offense. Does Bell push for top 5 RB scores? Does Conner see his touches drop with Samuels heading into year 2?

Any trades pass through your leagues with either of these guys?

[barackdhouse 2,044]

9 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

With the Bell saga finally over (well, at least he now has a new contract), does anyone want to take a stab at his trade value. How about that of James Conner? 

I like the moves the Jets have made on the offensive side and think there's good potential in that offense. Does Bell push for top 5 RB scores? Does Conner see his touches drop with Samuels heading into year 2?

Any trades pass through your leagues with either of these guys?

We held a two person dispersal draft over the course of the last couple days. Conner went 1st overall.  Field included Chubb, Mixon, Julio. FWIW. 

[Edgar 208]

9 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

We held a two person dispersal draft over the course of the last couple days. Conner went 1st overall.  Field included Chubb, Mixon, Julio. FWIW. 

Don’t know the league format, but give me Mixon/Chubb, Julio, Conner, in that order. 

[Flying Elvis 797]

Plenty of projections have Conner top 5, as well. Bell isn't far behind. Mostly curious about attitudes towards both, I guess. Will they be bargains in trade b/c of unknowns (Bell's fitness & Jets offense; Conner as unproven + Samuels) or will they both be high cost now that nobody is worried about a timeshare/vulture issue like last season prior to week 10. 

Obviously, there's always a difference from person to person, so any opinion is fine. Thanks to you both (and anyone else that chimes in)!

[menobrown 3,725]

8 hours ago, Edgar said:

Don’t know the league format, but give me Mixon/Chubb, Julio, Conner, in that order. 

I would have done the same

[Andy Dufresne 11,750]

Kareem Hunt still has to have quite a bit of value, especially to a rebuilding dynasty team, right? Looking ahead to 2020, he'll only be 24 years old.

[barackdhouse 2,044]

9 hours ago, Edgar said:

Don’t know the league format, but give me Mixon/Chubb, Julio, Conner, in that order. 

Yeah I took Mixon/Chubb at 1.2 and 2.1. I was a little surprised he took Conner. It is FFPC style, so PPR, 1.5 for TEs.

[Tick 1,394]

On 2/24/2019 at 12:11 PM, Tick said:

I'm wading into Superflex for the first time this season.  Does anyone have a feel for how the Dynasty Trade Value Chart by @Dan Hindery might look in Superflex?  Multiply QB scores by 5.0?

QB scores multiplied by 5.0:

1. Patrick Mahomes II125
2. Saquon Barkley62
3. (tie for 3rd) Christian McCaffrey55
4. (tie for 3rd) Ezekiel Elliott55
5. Todd Gurley52
6. (tie for 6th) Deshaun Watson50
7. (tie for 6th) Andrew Luck50
8. (tie for 6th) Alvin Kamara50
9. DeAndre Hopkins46
10. JuJu Smith-Schuster42
11. (tie for 11th) Baker Mayfield40
12. (tie for 11th) Tyreek Hill40
13. (tie for 11th) Michael Thomas40
14. Odell Beckham Jr39
15. Davante Adams38
16. Aaron Rodgers35
17. (tie for 17th) Nick Chubb33
18. (tie for 17th) Mike Evans33
19. (tie for 19th) Joe Mixon32
20. (tie for 19th) Melvin Gordon III32
21. (tie for 21st) Russell Wilson30
22. (tie for 21st) Lamar Jackson30
23. (tie for 21st) Carson Wentz30
24. Keenan Allen28
25. (tie for 25th) Julio Jones26
26. (tie for 25th) Antonio Brown26
27. (tie for 27th) Cam Newton25
28. (tie for 27th) Stefon Diggs25
29. (tie for 29th) David Johnson24
30. (tie for 29th) Le'Veon Bell24
31. (tie for 29th) Dalvin Cook24
32. (tie for 29th) Kerryon Johnson24
33. (tie for 29th) James Conner24
34. (tie for 29th) Amari Cooper24
35. Kenny Golladay23
36. Brandin Cooks22

What would you do to rookie draft pick values?  Multiply by 1.25?

Very cool, @Dan Hindery added a Superflex column this month.  Thanks!

[Buckna 1,396]

10 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

We held a two person dispersal draft over the course of the last couple days. Conner went 1st overall.  Field included Chubb, Mixon, Julio. FWIW. 

It'd be tough for me to choose between Mixon & Conner if it's PPR. Conner outscored him by about 4 PPG, but I don't think we've seen Mixon hit his ceiling yet. I would put Chubb a distant 3rd since he's not going to catch many balls and Hunt is still a threat IMO. Julio slightly behind Chubb due to age and RB scarcity.

[tangfoot 1,998]

1 hour ago, Buckna said:

It'd be tough for me to choose between Mixon & Conner if it's PPR. Conner outscored him by about 4 PPG, but I don't think we've seen Mixon hit his ceiling yet. I would put Chubb a distant 3rd since he's not going to catch many balls and Hunt is still a threat IMO. Julio slightly behind Chubb due to age and RB scarcity.

In my full PPR league, Chubb averaged 22.55 PPG from Weeks 7-16.  RB6

Mixon was RB7 at 21.7 PPG.

 

Feel free to discount Chubb due to his pass catching but I don't think Mixon's ability puts him ahead of Chubb at all, certainly not by the substantial margin you have them separated by.

[barackdhouse 2,044]

1 hour ago, Buckna said:

It'd be tough for me to choose between Mixon & Conner if it's PPR. Conner outscored him by about 4 PPG, but I don't think we've seen Mixon hit his ceiling yet. I would put Chubb a distant 3rd since he's not going to catch many balls and Hunt is still a threat IMO. Julio slightly behind Chubb due to age and RB scarcity.

Yeah I like Conner a lot as well. I didn't think it was a bad pick at 1.1 I was just surprised a little. I would take either Mixon or Chubb first and Julio vs Conner would have been tough for me. 

[kutta 5,497]

How about DJ? Any recent trades? I gave up a 2020 first for him recently and I’m wondering  what the consensus is on his value.

[Rockchild 124]

1 hour ago, kutta said:

How about DJ? Any recent trades? I gave up a 2020 first for him recently and I’m wondering  what the consensus is on his value.

I moved him for 2019 1.07 and a late 2020 1st. Some thought it was cheap but I am happy. I did not have a lot of interest and thought I'd take the 2 picks.

[Buckna 1,396]

2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

In my full PPR league, Chubb averaged 22.55 PPG from Weeks 7-16.  RB6

Mixon was RB7 at 21.7 PPG.

 

Feel free to discount Chubb due to his pass catching but I don't think Mixon's ability puts him ahead of Chubb at all, certainly not by the substantial margin you have them separated by.

I own all 3 of these guys in various leagues so no bias here, but I don't see Chubb sustaining his '18 second half numbers with Hunt there in the second half of the '19 season. I think Hunt is a talented guy that can still thrive outside KC's great situation. I could easily be wrong of course. I am trying to acquire Chubb in more leagues after the Hunt news so I'd be happy to be wrong if I can get him in more places.

 

Edit: And I shouldn't have typed "distant third" maybe more like easy third, for me at least.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Buckna

[Drezden 28]

Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

[Maven25 65]

12 team, ppr, superflex

Looking for thoughts on this offfer:

Team A: Adam Thielen

Team B: Sam Darnold, 2020 1st (Late)

[tangfoot 1,998]

5 hours ago, Drezden said:

Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

Funchess could end up being a glorified TE and score a bunch of red zone TDs. I think he’s pretty much useless as a WR, but I think he’s worth at least a better 2nd than what you’ve been offered. 

On the other hand, he may never be worth more. 

[Snorkelson 4,120]

4 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Funchess could end up being a glorified TE and score a bunch of red zone TDs. I think he’s pretty much useless as a WR, but I think he’s worth at least a better 2nd than what you’ve been offered. 

On the other hand, he may never be worth more. 

With Ebron and Doyle there I don’t even think he gets glorified te touches. However, the depth chart in Indy is pretty light, and luck looks like he’s healthy. I suppose I wouldn’t expect a better offer to come through this offseason, and I think I’d likely take it. 

[ComfortablyNumb 172]

How does the community see the PPR Dynasty value of Shady McCoy vs D'onta Foreman?

[Dr. Octopus 15,766]

15 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

How does the community see the PPR Dynasty value of Shady McCoy vs D'onta Foreman?

McCoy at least has a chance to be useful for this season - I'm not sure Foreman ever does after that injury.

[Craig_MiamiFL 2,501]

On 3/15/2019 at 1:54 PM, Drezden said:

Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

Fair offer IMO. 

I don't see him any better than 5th on RB/WR/TE target list in his first year in the offense. 

[Zyphros 1,897]

1 hour ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

How does the community see the PPR Dynasty value of Shady McCoy vs D'onta Foreman?

If I’m win now, and I’m looking for a vet, Shady still wouldn’t make the list since the McCoy owner probably still wants too much.  I’d pay a 3rd for him but that’s probably it.  I’d rather pay a higher price for a more stable kind of guy to win.  Foreman at least has a chance to help long term (especially if he survives the draft) if he’s healthy.  I’d take foreman in a vacuum.  

[ComfortablyNumb 172]

On 3/15/2019 at 5:16 PM, Maven25 said:

12 team, ppr, superflex

Looking for thoughts on this offfer:

Team A: Adam Thielen

Team B: Sam Darnold, 2020 1st (Late)

 

That seems to be a balanced trade. I see Darnold with a career ceiling around QB12-15, but that's still fairly valuable in superflex.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

Philip Lindsay, I added this guy last year. I admit I'm not the biggest fan of his, but I don't see how his value is so low. Lindsay put up a great rookie season outplaying the SP darling Freeman, relegating him to a cop back. I know everybody liked Freeman, but you can see what happened on the field and adjust. Freeman's draft capital should take a back seat to performance on the field. Especially with a new sheriff in town not attached to last years draft class.

 

Edited March 21, 2019 by cloppbeast

[RushHour 801]

1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Philip Lindsay, I added this guy last year. I admit I'm not the biggest fan of his, but I don't see how his value is so low. Lindsay put up a great rookie season outplaying the SP darling Freeman, relegating him to a cop back. I know everybody liked Freeman, but you can see what happened on the field and adjust. Freeman's draft capital should take a back seat to performance on the field. Especially with a new sheriff in town not attached to last years draft class.

 

I'm an owner and kind of see this both ways. I'm a fan of his game and actually think he was under-utilised in the passing game so there's still some upside there if they figure that out. He's also such a fan favourite and success story for the Broncos as a UDFA that I don't think they'd actively marginalise him in favour of Freeman, despite his lack of 'status'. 

I agree that the draft capital stuff shouldn't matter at this point (although Freeman was only a 3rd round pick so it's not like they spent that much on him either) but there's the uncertainty of a new coaching staff and the wrist injury is a bit concerning to me. There's also his age as a second year player, which is probably a turn off for some owners. 

I look at his ADP and I think it seems a bit high actually - not for what he did in terms of production, but in the sense that I don't feel like that's his actual value in leagues. That is, I see a lot of guys ranked below him in typical rankings that I don't think you could get in a trade straight up for Lindsay. 

Edited March 22, 2019 by RushHour

[menobrown 3,725]

6 hours ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

How does the community see the PPR Dynasty value of Shady McCoy vs D'onta Foreman?

I have no confidence McCoy has anything left. Not high on Foreman but worth a shot just in case the extra time to recover helps him and if McCoy is the cost of the risk that's not much of a cost.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

12 minutes ago, RushHour said:

I look at his ADP and I think it seems a bit high actually - not for what he did in terms of production, but in the sense that I don't feel like that's his actual value in leagues. That is, I see a lot of guys ranked below him in typical rankings that I don't think you could get in a trade straight up for Lindsay. 

I agree with this. I've been trying to move him all off season. Nobody seems to want him.

[-OZ- 7,876]

On 3/15/2019 at 3:54 PM, Drezden said:

Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

Seems fair. If you really need the depth keep funches but he just isn't worth much as you don't want to start him. 

[Aunt Jemima 297]

Now that startup season has arrived. Curious as to other's thoughts on random 2020 1sts. Pre startup draft what 2019 startup pick do you equate as egual value if you are trading for a random 2020 1st?? I'm mainly talking FFPC as my baseline here, not sure that matters. In prior year's I've put that value as about a mid 6th but curious about others, is that high, low, about right?? Does it change due to expectations of the 2020 class??

[Zyphros 1,897]

3 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

Now that startup season has arrived. Curious as to other's thoughts on random 2020 1sts. Pre startup draft what 2019 startup pick do you equate as egual value if you are trading for a random 2020 1st?? I'm mainly talking FFPC as my baseline here, not sure that matters. In prior year's I've put that value as about a mid 6th but curious about others, is that high, low, about right?? Does it change due to expectations of the 2020 class??

Seems to have stayed about the same.  I’m in a startup now, rookies are going off the board starting in the 4th, but there have been multiple trade downs from the 3rd to 4th including a 2020 1st.  Nobody did any deals straight up for a 1st yet (we’re in the mid 4th) but maybe soon.  I’ll update when/if something happens.    

[Interseptopus 5,722]

Royce Freeman? 

where do we put him on value for draft picks?

what kind of offense do people think Fangio/Scangarello runs? better for Lindsay, or Freeeman?

Edited March 24, 2019 by Dr. Dan

[Bojang0301 2,246]

Just now, Dr. Dan said:

Royce Freeman? 

where do we put him on value for draft picks?

what kind of offense do people think Fangio runs? better for Lindsay, or Freeeman?

Graham Barfield posted that Flacco targets RB’s at ~24% over the past three seasons. Someone is going to be valuable in that backfield.

[Pwingles 481]

Start one QB league, 12 team TE premium

Team A has Baker, Dak at qb, Gurley, Fournette, Barkley at RB

Team B is offering Dalvin Cook straight up for Baker......

 

Thoughts?

[fruity pebbles 3,255]

2 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

Start one QB league, 12 team TE premium

Team A has Baker, Dak at qb, Gurley, Fournette, Barkley at RB

Team B is offering Dalvin Cook straight up for Baker......

 

Thoughts?

Bye bye Baker

[roarlions 118]

Thoughts on 2019 rookie pick 4 vs Phillip Lindsay?

[menobrown 3,725]

13 minutes ago, roarlions said:

Thoughts on 2019 rookie pick 4 vs Phillip Lindsay?

For the entertainment value of sitting on that pick for next month I'd not give it up for Lindsay.  Though when it actually comes time to make the pick  I'm pretty sure I'd rather have Lindsay, especially in a  typical PPR  league.

[SayWhat? 4,090]

4 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Bye bye Baker

This.  Unless it’s a superflex, I’d almost always take the young top 10 dynasty running back.  

[SayWhat? 4,090]

18 minutes ago, roarlions said:

Thoughts on 2019 rookie pick 4 vs Phillip Lindsay?

I prefer Lindsay to any rookie running back in this class, but if I needed a wide receiver I wouldn’t trade that pick for Lindsay.  Could see either way really.

[roarlions 118]

13 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

I prefer Lindsay to any rookie running back in this class, but if I needed a wide receiver I wouldn’t trade that pick for Lindsay.  Could see either way really.

I should have mentioned that it was a PPR league. I'm in decent shape at WR but really desperate at RB.

[roarlions 118]

17 minutes ago, menobrown said:

For the entertainment value of sitting on that pick for next month I'd not give it up for Lindsay.  Though when it actually comes time to make the pick  I'm pretty sure I'd rather have Lindsay, especially in a  typical PPR  league.

I'm assuming that if Jacobs ends up in a reasonable situation he will be gone by pick 4. Not sure I'd take a different RB at that point and probably wouldn't want one compared to Lindsay.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

1 hour ago, roarlions said:

Thoughts on 2019 rookie pick 4 vs Phillip Lindsay?

1.04 >> Lindsay

[Biabreakable 5,099]

5 hours ago, Pwingles said:

Start one QB league, 12 team TE premium

Team A has Baker, Dak at qb, Gurley, Fournette, Barkley at RB

Team B is offering Dalvin Cook straight up for Baker......

 

Thoughts?

Some times gifts just fall out of the sky.