Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Pwingles 481]

3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Some times gifts just fall out of the sky.

yeah 😕

this owner is notorious for making bad deals and more than a few to me

honestly am considering declining because I think that some owners will rage quit the league

[Biabreakable 5,102]

1 minute ago, Pwingles said:

yeah 😕

this owner is notorious for making bad deals and more than a few to me

honestly am considering declining because I think that some owners will rage quit the league

LOL I can understand that concern.

Offer him something else on top of it so they can't complain about it. Really when you have a team like this in the league everyone should be trying to trade with the guy. If you don't take the sweet deals someone else will.

I remember a guy like this who was changing his team constantly with trades. Just could not stick with anything. He told me he doesn't feel confident in his rookie player evaluations, so I traded for all his picks and stop worrying about the vultures dining on his team.

[Kleck 82]

8 hours ago, Pwingles said:

Start one QB league, 12 team TE premium

Team A has Baker, Dak at qb, Gurley, Fournette, Barkley at RB

Team B is offering Dalvin Cook straight up for Baker......

 

Thoughts?

Guess I'm in the minority.  I'd rather have Baker than Cook.  I'd be trading Dak away if I were Team A.  

[Jello_Biafra 417]

35 minutes ago, Kleck said:

Guess I'm in the minority.  I'd rather have Baker than Cook.  I'd be trading Dak away if I were Team A.  

And getting what in return? a 3rd? 

[Run It Up 916]

1 hour ago, Pwingles said:

yeah 😕

this owner is notorious for making bad deals and more than a few to me

honestly am considering declining because I think that some owners will rage quit the league

This is true.

 

Pwingles went back to back, same guy trying to move Cook sent him what would end up being the 1.01 (Saquan) when he already had the best team by a large margin.

[Milkman 2,348]

10 hours ago, Pwingles said:

Start one QB league, 12 team TE premium

Team A has Baker, Dak at qb, Gurley, Fournette, Barkley at RB

Team B is offering Dalvin Cook straight up for Baker......

 

Thoughts?

Ill take Baker. 

[cloppbeast 1,415]

10 hours ago, Pwingles said:

Start one QB league, 12 team TE premium

Team A has Baker, Dak at qb, Gurley, Fournette, Barkley at RB

Team B is offering Dalvin Cook straight up for Baker......

 

Thoughts?

23 year old possible RB1 for a QB.... I can't believe it we're discussing it. You have to be really low on Cook to even consider this.

[Run It Up 916]

Not only that its a 1 QB league and the guy trying to get Baker had Trubisky and Carr

[barackdhouse 2,056]

1 hour ago, Run It Up said:

Not only that its a 1 QB league and the guy trying to get Baker had Trubisky and Carr

Well then I would consider Baker to be a big improvement. But I'd easily take Cook.

[Kleck 82]

4 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

And getting what in return? a 3rd? 

Don't know, but I certainly wouldn't be trading Baker away.  

[Unwrittenlaw 34]

15 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Bye bye Baker

Crazy....

 

4 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

23 year old possible RB1 for a QB.... I can't believe it we're discussing it. You have to be really low on Cook to even consider this.

Best Dalvin Cook will ever be is Gerald Riggs/Neal Anderson..if Dalvin Cook didn't break out his 2nd yr. I give Cook 3 yrs of production.

The fact that Dalvin Cook's Attempts per game dropped from 18 to 12 from yr 1 to yr 2 is a major red flag.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Unwrittenlaw

[Andy Dufresne 11,762]

7 hours ago, Unwrittenlaw said:

Crazy....

 

Best Dalvin Cook will ever be is Gerald Riggs/Neal Anderson..if Dalvin Cook didn't break out his 2nd yr. I give Cook 3 yrs of production.

The fact that Dalvin Cook's Attempts per game dropped from 18 to 12 from yr 1 to yr 2 is a major red flag.

That red flag got fired.

[Dr. Octopus 15,782]

8 hours ago, Unwrittenlaw said:

The fact that Dalvin Cook's Attempts per game dropped from 18 to 12 from yr 1 to yr 2 is a major red flag.

He tore his ACL during his rookie season. The first year back is generally a bit of a down year.

[osubuckeyeman 182]

How does the room feel about Jay Ajayi?

[Dezbelief 740]

I would feel better if he was signed to a team and he was expected to be recovered before week 1. Now would be the time to buy low if you like him. If you are a seller I'd hold for now.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

9 hours ago, Unwrittenlaw said:

Best Dalvin Cook will ever be is Gerald Riggs/Neal Anderson..if Dalvin Cook didn't break out his 2nd yr. I give Cook 3 yrs of production.

The fact that Dalvin Cook's Attempts per game dropped from 18 to 12 from yr 1 to yr 2 is a major red flag.

These facts help explain why you're low on Cook. Some people look for context to go with them there facts, which you might call hype. Somebody wanting to sell Cook should try to cash in on it instead of paying for the Mayfield hype.

Edited March 26, 2019 by cloppbeast

[Andy Dufresne 11,762]

33 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

How does the room feel about Jay Ajayi?

https://images.app.goo.gl/5rsjcAojv8qvSMWE7

[cloppbeast 1,415]

For real though, why is everyone so low on Ajayi? He tore the ACL on the other knee. There will be an opportunity for him eventually.

I'm not understanding the logic he's a has-been at 25. 

[Andy Dufresne 11,762]

6 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

For real though, why is everyone so low on Ajayi? He tore the ACL on the other knee. There will be an opportunity for him eventually.

I'm not understanding the logic he's a has-been at 25. 

Because he's damaged goods that last did something in the 2nd half of the 2016 season and hasn't been signed a couple weeks into free agency. It's over.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Because he's damaged goods that last did something in the 2nd half of the 2016 season and hasn't been signed a couple weeks into free agency. It's over.

2016, the good ol' days when kid still played outside. 

[Biabreakable 5,102]

I really like Jay Ajayi but the fact that he is not signed and it being uncertain when he can play I would not be pursuing him.

I would still keep him or even draft him late though just to see what happens. He certainly is capable of being a good starter if healthy.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

For real though, why is everyone so low on Ajayi? He tore the ACL on the other knee. There will be an opportunity for him eventually.

I'm not understanding the logic he's a has-been at 25. 

He's basically the same age as Crowell, similar style of play, but less durable. 

[Dr. Octopus 15,782]

1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

He's basically the same age as Crowell, similar style of play, but less durable. 

I wouldn't be shocked if the next time we see Crowell is taking handoffs in the AAF either though.

[bicycle_seat_sniffer 5,109]

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Because he's damaged goods that last did something in the 2nd half of the 2016 season and hasn't been signed a couple weeks into free agency. It's over.

Philly signs him post draft

[FF Ninja 2,842]

Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the next time we see Crowell is taking handoffs in the AAF either though.

Hah. My point was that neither of them have much value at this point. If someone values one much higher then the other, it might be time to re-evaluate why.

[SayWhat? 4,090]

34 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Hah. My point was that neither of them have much value at this point. If someone values one much higher then the other, it might be time to re-evaluate why.

I think NFL teams may be wising up the dinosaur that is the two down back in today’s NFL.  They’re likely realizing that they don’t have to drop $2-3MM per year for one of these veteran guys (Ajayi, Crowell and even the Bears apparent willingness to trade Howard as his contract is about to expire), when they can just draft one in the 4th-6th rounds and move on from them in four years. 

[cloppbeast 1,415]

1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Hah. My point was that neither of them have much value at this point. If someone values one much higher then the other, it might be time to re-evaluate why.

I think people are just being impatient in assuming they're done because they havent been signed. Ajayi's case is a bit different. Recovering from a repaired ligament has a lot to do with his unemployment. Any team would rather get a rb in the draft if they can. No point to losing a roster spot by paying Ajayi to rehab. 

When injuries mount, or team doesnt get the back they want, or the back they wanted wasn't as good as they thought, somebody will sign him.

[Andy Dufresne 11,762]

10 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I think people are just being impatient in assuming they're done because they havent been signed. Ajayi's case is a bit different. Recovering from a repaired ligament has a lot to do with his unemployment. Any team would rather get a rb in the draft if they can. No point to losing a roster spot by paying Ajayi to rehab. 

When injuries mount, or team doesnt get the back they want, or the back they wanted wasn't as good as they thought, somebody will sign him.

And a head wound had a lot to do with Abe Lincoln's unemployment.

I kid, I KID!

Are you asking if he's worth a FFB roster spot you're pretty much answering your own question. Guys that only get signed when other guys are unavailable or underperform are waiver wire guys themselves.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

I think NFL teams may be wising up the dinosaur that is the two down back in today’s NFL.  They’re likely realizing that they don’t have to drop $2-3MM per year for one of these veteran guys (Ajayi, Crowell and even the Bears apparent willingness to trade Howard as his contract is about to expire), when they can just draft one in the 4th-6th rounds and move on from them in four years. 

I think that's overstating things a bit. The hit rate is still quite low in rounds 4-6. I'm also hesitant to label everybody who happens to play alongside a 3rd down specialist as a two down back. Plenty of players have shown ability in the receiving game when given a chance (Crowell caught 40 passes in 2016 on 53 targets). So it's not always that the player in the early down role is a dinosaur, it could easily just be that a team prefers to split the workload that way. 

That being said, NFL teams have definitely wised up to the fact that they don't need to spend a lot of money or draft capital on RBs anymore. I'm not sure, but it seems scat backs/3rd down specialists are even easier to find late than good early down backs. There are more Lindsay/Riddick types than there are Jordan Howards. 

16 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I think people are just being impatient in assuming they're done because they havent been signed. Ajayi's case is a bit different. Recovering from a repaired ligament has a lot to do with his unemployment. Any team would rather get a rb in the draft if they can. No point to losing a roster spot by paying Ajayi to rehab. 

When injuries mount, or team doesnt get the back they want, or the back they wanted wasn't as good as they thought, somebody will sign him.

Nobody is saying he's absolutely toast in the league, but fantasy football is a probability game and given what we've seen, his stock is circling the drain. I would pay very, very little for him in a trade. At best he's 2nd in line for carries to start the season (realistically - could be another Guice-type of preseason injury, but obviously unlikely). Nobody is trading anything valuable for backups at this point in the offseason.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

11 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

And a head wound had a lot to do with Abe Lincoln's unemployment.

I kid, I KID!

Are you asking if he's worth a FFB roster spot you're pretty much answering your own question. Guys that only get signed when other guys are unavailable or underperform are waiver wire guys themselves.

Maybe. If you're dropping him so you have a roster spot for your 4th rookie round pick, I'll just take my chances on Ajayi. 

[cloppbeast 1,415]

2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Nobody is saying he's absolutely toast in the league, but fantasy football is a probability game and given what we've seen, his stock is circling the drain. I would pay very, very little for him in a trade. At best he's 2nd in line for carries to start the season (realistically - could be another Guice-type of preseason injury, but obviously unlikely). Nobody is trading anything valuable for backups at this point in the offseason.

I get it. I'm not trying to trade the guy.

I dont even have a problem with his value given his medical history. Only that people think he's toast. Not that it really matters. But the talent he had at 22 didnt suddenly disappear by 25 just because he has bad knees.

What about Gurley too? Despite arthritis he is still a top 10 dynasty asset. Its hypocritical and it hurts my feelings a little. Man enough to admit it.

[JoeJoe88 456]

3 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

What about Gurley too? Despite arthritis he is still a top 10 dynasty asset. Its hypocritical and it hurts my feelings a little. Man enough to admit it.

Gurley's value has dipped slightly since that news, but he still as two back to back top-3 RB  finishes on his resume and is locked up with a massive deal on one of the best offenses in the league for the next four seasons.  

[DreamTheater 48]

was offered Miller, Foreman, 2019 1.4 and 2020 1st for CMC in a PPR.   I am thinking no way....Not even close....

[Pwingles 481]

21 minutes ago, DreamTheater said:

was offered Miller, Foreman, 2019 1.4 and 2020 1st for CMC in a PPR.   I am thinking no way....Not even close....

for me this is way off

might consider if there was another early '20 1st  in the mix, and i wasnt close to competing

[FreeBaGeL 8,886]

3 hours ago, DreamTheater said:

was offered Miller, Foreman, 2019 1.4 and 2020 1st for CMC in a PPR.   I am thinking no way....Not even close....

Two 1sts for McCaffrey is two firsts short of the four he's worth. 

[Aunt Jemima 297]

23 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Gurley's value has dipped slightly since that news, but he still as two back to back top-3 RB  finishes on his resume and is locked up with a massive deal on one of the best offenses in the league for the next four seasons.  

I personally would be selling Gurley as quickly as possible. As I understand it from a few things I've seen from Doctor's is that there isn't much they can do but manage pain for arthritis, it is degenerative, and this arthritis is a direct result of his knee surgery. It is the reason you heard the Rams mention stem cell therapy because there isn't really any established medicine that can help him, main thing the knee needs is rest. So while his talent isn't gone, his workhorse/overuse days certainly are and going forward you have a committee back with a shorter career. Anyone taking him in the top 10 is incorrect in my book, he won't be on my 2019 teams

[JoeJoe88 456]

4 hours ago, DreamTheater said:

was offered Miller, Foreman, 2019 1.4 and 2020 1st for CMC in a PPR.   I am thinking no way....Not even close....

Not close.

[cloppbeast 1,415]

58 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

I personally would be selling Gurley as quickly as possible. As I understand it from a few things I've seen from Doctor's is that there isn't much they can do but manage pain for arthritis, it is degenerative, and this arthritis is a direct result of his knee surgery. It is the reason you heard the Rams mention stem cell therapy because there isn't really any established medicine that can help him, main thing the knee needs is rest. So while his talent isn't gone, his workhorse/overuse days certainly are and going forward you have a committee back with a shorter career. Anyone taking him in the top 10 is incorrect in my book, he won't be on my 2019 teams

Right. Its concerning to me he couldnt play the end of the season, not even in the SB, but never got injured. It was just a flare up or whatever. 

Edited March 27, 2019 by cloppbeast

[Rig24 126]

5 hours ago, DreamTheater said:

was offered Miller, Foreman, 2019 1.4 and 2020 1st for CMC in a PPR.   I am thinking no way....Not even close....

I think you should have been offended.  Formal complaint would be acceptable.

[jeaton6 637]

On 3/26/2019 at 12:25 AM, Unwrittenlaw said:

Crazy....

 

Best Dalvin Cook will ever be is Gerald Riggs/Neal Anderson..if Dalvin Cook didn't break out his 2nd yr. I give Cook 3 yrs of production.

The fact that Dalvin Cook's Attempts per game dropped from 18 to 12 from yr 1 to yr 2 is a major red flag.

Someone quoting players from the 80’s as comps tells me all I need to know.....

[Unwrittenlaw 34]

17 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Someone quoting players from the 80’s as comps tells me all I need to know.....

They're not comps.

Edited March 27, 2019 by Unwrittenlaw

[jeaton6 637]

25 minutes ago, Unwrittenlaw said:

They're not comps.

Glad you’re figuring that out now

[Pwingles 481]

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

Just grabbed him in a superflex startup in the 11th as our wr 5. Seemed a little late for me for him to be there. We passed on him 2 x because of players still on the board and we have Engram. But I couldnt do it again. Is he falling for a reason I am unaware of?

[Andy Dufresne 11,762]

2 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

Just grabbed him in a superflex startup in the 11th as our wr 5. Seemed a little late for me for him to be there. We passed on him 2 x because of players still on the board and we have Engram. But I couldnt do it again. Is he falling for a reason I am unaware of?

I personally like him as a player. Coincidentally I think he should have been putting up Golden Tate numbers. But since he's stuck in that offense, I've been trying to offload him for any 2nd round dynasty pick but there have been no takers. If all I can get is a 3rd or lower, I'll keep him in hopes he finds his way off the Giants roster.

[Pwingles 481]

So for most people its probably a perception of the possible offense and not really him specifically? I am fine with the risk I think. If the QB situation suddenly changes his value will go up. If he ends up on another team next season, or a revamped giants squad his value shouldnt go down I wouldnt think.

 

[tangfoot 1,998]

58 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

So for most people its probably a perception of the possible offense and not really him specifically? I am fine with the risk I think. If the QB situation suddenly changes his value will go up. If he ends up on another team next season, or a revamped giants squad his value shouldnt go down I wouldnt think

He did well in OBJ's absence a couple years ago, but won't thrive in that system with two other guys basically playing the same role.  Could be a cheap stash, but I don't know that I want to hold that ticket.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

4 hours ago, Pwingles said:

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

Just grabbed him in a superflex startup in the 11th as our wr 5. Seemed a little late for me for him to be there. We passed on him 2 x because of players still on the board and we have Engram. But I couldnt do it again. Is he falling for a reason I am unaware of?

I like him based on (1) price, (2) opportunity, and (3) what we've seen on the field. If he plays 16 games, I expect something in the ballpark of 80/1100. Eli still sucks, but the OL has improved and this is Shurmur's second season. OBJ just vacated a ton of targets. Kind of the perfect storm for him entering the final year of his contract. If he clicks in this offense, he probably gets extended. If he's not happy, he gets a chance to move on.

If I needed WR help and had a mid-to-late 2nd, he's definitely a guy I'd target. I can't remember the last time I did a snake startup, so positionally where did he go in your draft? He should be going around WR40. If you got him as your WR5, that's some nice depth at excellent value.

[wgoldsph 945]

6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I like him based on (1) price, (2) opportunity, and (3) what we've seen on the field. If he plays 16 games, I expect something in the ballpark of 80/1100. Eli still sucks, but the OL has improved and this is Shurmur's second season. OBJ just vacated a ton of targets. Kind of the perfect storm for him entering the final year of his contract. If he clicks in this offense, he probably gets extended. If he's not happy, he gets a chance to move on.

If I needed WR help and had a mid-to-late 2nd, he's definitely a guy I'd target. I can't remember the last time I did a snake startup, so positionally where did he go in your draft? He should be going around WR40. If you got him as your WR5, that's some nice depth at excellent value.

80/1100?  That's top 20 numbers.  You're drowning in koolaid my friend.

[FF Ninja 2,842]

1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

80/1100?  That's top 20 numbers.  You're drowning in koolaid my friend.

Probably not. On a ppg basis, that's most likely outside the top 20, depending on TDs.

Looking at points per game, Tyler Boyd finished WR20, but he only played 14 games. Project that out to 16 games and his numbers would've been 87/1175/8. So something like 80/1100 would probably yield high end WR3 numbers and maybe squeak into low-end WR2. But again, it depends on TDs. Eli doesn't throw a lot, so I would not feel comfortable projecting him above 6. 

Last season, Shepard had 107 targets for 180.5 points, or 1.7 points per target which yielded 11.3 ppg for WR42. With the absence of OBJ, if he gets 130 at that rate (less than 20% of OBJ's vacated targets), it would put him at 13.7 ppg which would've been WR27 last year (WR24 was 13.8 ppg). This math indicates the rough estimate of 80/1100 is reasonable, unless you expect him to get a smaller share of the 124 targets that went to OBJ last year or if you expect the Giants to pass less than they did last year.

[wgoldsph 945]

6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Probably not. On a ppg basis, that's most likely outside the top 20, depending on TDs.

Looking at points per game, Tyler Boyd finished WR20, but he only played 14 games. Project that out to 16 games and his numbers would've been 87/1175/8. So something like 80/1100 would probably yield high end WR3 numbers and maybe squeak into low-end WR2. But again, it depends on TDs. Eli doesn't throw a lot, so I would not feel comfortable projecting him above 6. 

Last season, Shepard had 107 targets for 180.5 points, or 1.7 points per target which yielded 11.3 ppg for WR42. With the absence of OBJ, if he gets 130 at that rate (less than 20% of OBJ's vacated targets), it would put him at 13.7 ppg which would've been WR27 last year (WR24 was 13.8 ppg). This math indicates the rough estimate of 80/1100 is reasonable, unless you expect him to get a smaller share of the 124 targets that went to OBJ last year or if you expect the Giants to pass less than they did last year.

Well, first of all I didn't know Shepard was targeted over 100 times last season, so I was off on my estimate.  You're probably closer to right than I gave you credit for.

I do however expect the Giants to do whatever they can to not pass this season.  All their moves seem to indicate they plan to live and die by Barkley.