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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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16 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Well, first of all I didn't know Shepard was targeted over 100 times last season, so I was off on my estimate.  You're probably closer to right than I gave you credit for.

I do however expect the Giants to do whatever they can to not pass this season.  All their moves seem to indicate they plan to live and die by Barkley.

You're not alone, which is why Shepard is such a nice value right now.

Every losing team talks about wanting to run the ball more, but when you're behind two scores, you pass the ball. And I would hate to see them do the Ricky Williams treatment to Barkley. 

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks.  These guys hit at what, a 20% rate?  15%?  It's a miserable number.  I'd be pretty surprised if

59 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I like him based on (1) price, (2) opportunity, and (3) what we've seen on the field. If he plays 16 games, I expect something in the ballpark of 80/1100. Eli still sucks, but the OL has improved and this is Shurmur's second season. OBJ just vacated a ton of targets. Kind of the perfect storm for him entering the final year of his contract. If he clicks in this offense, he probably gets extended. If he's not happy, he gets a chance to move on.

If I needed WR help and had a mid-to-late 2nd, he's definitely a guy I'd target. I can't remember the last time I did a snake startup, so positionally where did he go in your draft? He should be going around WR40. If you got him as your WR5, that's some nice depth at excellent value.

11.06, wr 49

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Kareem Hunt is nigh on untradeable right now (unless you're practically giving him away).

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

I haven't offered him for draft picks in the one league where I own him, but I have received offers for him where I would receive a player in return. The latest offer I received was Sony Michel for Hunt and my 2020 1st round pick.

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25 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Kareem Hunt is nigh on untradeable right now (unless you're practically giving him away).

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

Sold him in a PPR/PPC league a few weeks ago for a 2020 1st.  Was happy to get it and some people in group chat thought I could have gotten more.

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9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Sold him in a PPR/PPC league a few weeks ago for a 2020 1st.  Was happy to get it and some people in group chat thought I could have gotten more.

Everyone always says you could get more in the group chat after you pull the trigger on a deal but for some reason when you are shopping a guy they never offer more.  It's easy to say I would have paid more when the player is no longer on the block. 

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On 3/28/2019 at 8:35 AM, Pwingles said:

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

 

About the same. In the games that Odell has missed he has only increased his production by 2 PPR fantasy points a game. Odell got a lot of targets but he opened up things for everyone else. Now you got Tate who in his Lions 4 full seasons averaged 8.25 targets a game, just 2.25 less then Odell per game, and he may not sustain that but he's a higher volume target guy who unlike Odell does not open up the field. So all in all about the same.

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43 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

 

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

I offered 1.9 for him before he signed with the Browns but also when we had no idea who he would be playing for and when he'd be allowed to play. I got shot down and was told I needed to include my 2020#1 AND a player. I don't have that 1.9 pick anymore, if I did I would not offer it because I think the owner is not reasonable to work with on a trade for Hunt but a pick in the second round is a steal. I'd for sure still give a late first for him.

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14 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I offered 1.9 for him before he signed with the Browns but also when we had no idea who he would be playing for and when he'd be allowed to play. I got shot down and was told I needed to include my 2020#1 AND a player. I don't have that 1.9 pick anymore, if I did I would not offer it because I think the owner is not reasonable to work with on a trade for Hunt but a pick in the second round is a steal. I'd for sure still give a late first for him.

Seems like this is the way of it - if you want to sell him you need to take less but if you're actively looking to buy him you have to overpay. 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

I offered 1.9 for him before he signed with the Browns but also when we had no idea who he would be playing for and when he'd be allowed to play. I got shot down and was told I needed to include my 2020#1 AND a player. I don't have that 1.9 pick anymore, if I did I would not offer it because I think the owner is not reasonable to work with on a trade for Hunt but a pick in the second round is a steal. I'd for sure still give a late first for him.

There's a really wide spread on hunt's value and a really wide spread on the value of picks in this year's draft.  If someone loves this year's draft and everyone in their league hates hunt it wouldn't shock me to see them trade hunt for a second. In other leagues a late first in a supposedly weak class isn't much of an offer.  

One thing worth pointing out is that neither is a very good asset for a win now team.  Hunt is suspended for 2/3 of the fantasy regular season and it's not like you could start him week 9 with any confidence.  He's a much better fit for a rebuild. But so is 1.9. 

It's hard to get a deal done when you're trading similar assets.  Most people won't make a trade they're ambivalent about, so you need one team that likes the late picks in this year's first more than the norm and another that likes hunt more than the norm.  But the guy who owns hunt probably drafted him for a reason, felt like a genius when he was good, and feels like this is a temporary setback. 

Imo if you want to do a deal for him it's best to make an offer that includes a win now asset like Edelman if they're a potential contender, or a young question mark like Corey Davis.  

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Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

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1 hour ago, Andrew74 said:

Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

By ADP, it's #16 overall for #21, 39 and 83.

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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Kareem Hunt is nigh on untradeable right now (unless you're practically giving him away).

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

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9 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

Well, it should go in the AC form but...

Team Hunt would, essentially, be giving him up to move up three spots at the top of round one but down three at the bottom. Why do that?

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53 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

I agree with Andy. Seems too cheap for Hunt. Better to hold him and hope he lands safely somewhere.

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48 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well, it should go in the AC form but...

Team Hunt would, essentially, be giving him up to move up three spots at the top of round one but down three at the bottom. Why do that?

 

7 minutes ago, kutta said:

I agree with Andy. Seems too cheap for Hunt. Better to hold him and hope he lands safely somewhere.

Didn't get any replies in AC...

So as the guy who got Hunt in this trade, I made the right move? Cool.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well, it should go in the AC form but...

Team Hunt would, essentially, be giving him up to move up three spots at the top of round one but down three at the bottom. Why do that?

This whole thread should be in there.

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2 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

Good trade for the guy getting 1.01 if Barkley was a rookie. There isn't one player right now that is worthy of the 1.01. After the draft that will change, but this WR class seems a tad overrated. 

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3 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Well I will tell you what I can't move Gurley to save my life.  I'm willing to take a moderate hit on a couple of teams to stock up on other goodies but I am getting RNC all over the place.

I dealt him for Kittle and Duke Johnson in FFPC right after the arthritis report came out.  I took some flack for it, but the market is cold. 

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On 3/29/2019 at 2:13 PM, Andrew74 said:

Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

I would take that in a heartbeat. I own him and he has nowhere that value in my league. I dare say that is a landslide trade in your favor.

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1 minute ago, King of the Jungle said:

I would take that in a heartbeat. I own him and he has nowhere that value in my league. I dare say that is a landslide trade in your favor.

He'd be the one getting DJ.

I'd stick based value.  If I had wr depth and thought DJ put me over the top, might go for it.

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6 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Oops...I would still love the othersde.

Yeah even if I did think DJ put me over the top, I'd try a whole bunch of other options first.  And I say that as a guy who think Davis is one of the most overrated players in dynasty.

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I’m looking at the packers depth chart and outside Adams I feel anyone could take the wr2-3 spots. Allison was decent, but not so great that he couldn’t be unseated. MVS showed nice last year, Moore not as much but I wouldn’t count him out. Then you have Jake kumerow, who Rodgers seemed to click with in the preseason, and also had some catches at the end of the year on limited snaps. All of these guys are buy low lotto tickets, except Allison, who may just be a buy low. That offense can produce points. 

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1 hour ago, DexterDew said:

I can't seem to move Ingram for anything of worth (late 2nd this year). Maybe i should be buying in other leagues. He's a starting RB on a run first offense. What am i missing?

Yeah I would pay a late 2nd for sure. Maybe I need to see if anyone is selling.

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1 hour ago, skinfanjon said:

I dealt him for Kittle and Duke Johnson in FFPC right after the arthritis report came out.  I took some flack for it, but the market is cold. 

Has anything actually been confirmed on the arthritis though?

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

 MVS showed nice last year,

I'd recommend reading the entire long article making the rounds today about Rodgers and McCarty's bad relationship. Found a few fantasy nuggets of info in that article and one of them was that MVS reportedly told at least one source that Rodgers hates him and would not throw the ball to him because MVS ran the routes that McCarthy wanted and did not deviate his routes like Rodgers wanted. Anyway I'd read the article if when you have time, Green Bay is going to be interesting next year.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I'd recommend reading the entire long article making the rounds today about Rodgers and McCarty's bad relationship. Found a few fantasy nuggets of info in that article and one of them was that MVS reportedly told at least one source that Rodgers hates him and would not throw the ball to him because MVS ran the routes that McCarthy wanted and did not deviate his routes like Rodgers wanted. Anyway I'd read the article if when you have time, Green Bay is going to be interesting next year.

Well McCarthy is gone so that may get worked out anyway - but interesting.

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17 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah I would pay a late 2nd for sure. Maybe I need to see if anyone is selling.

I have been reject for deals for Ingram offering 1.10 & Hurst and 1.07 even.  

He also has Hunt (I have Chubb) and he is firm on holding both.  I can appreciate that, but there is very little activity right now before NFL Draft 

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On 3/29/2019 at 12:13 PM, Andrew74 said:

Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

Kyler Murray is going to open everything up for DJ. DJ is a League winner this year barring injury. 

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16 hours ago, Milkman said:

Kyler Murray is going to open everything up for DJ. DJ is a League winner this year barring injury. 

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2018/12/5/18128028/arizona-cardinals-original-starting-offensive-line-is-gone-for-the-season

Also worth pointing out that the cardinals entire starting offensive line finished the season on ir last year.  

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2 hours ago, bostonfred said:

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2018/12/5/18128028/arizona-cardinals-original-starting-offensive-line-is-gone-for-the-season

Also worth pointing out that the cardinals entire starting offensive line finished the season on ir last year.  

A little worried about Kyler Murray stealing GL carries.....so maybe league winner ceiling is a stretch. Top 5 RB is in play though....

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On 4/4/2019 at 2:56 PM, Hankmoody said:

Well I will tell you what I can't move Gurley to save my life.  I'm willing to take a moderate hit on a couple of teams to stock up on other goodies but I am getting RNC all over the place.

RNC = Reject, no counter-offer? What do you consider to be a "moderate hit" in a return for Gurley?

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6 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

RNC = Reject, no counter-offer? What do you consider to be a "moderate hit" in a return for Gurley?

I've posted it a few times now, so apologize if I'm being redundant, but I sold Gurley for Kittle and Duke Johnson.  I kinda wanted to puke immediately after but I'm feeling better and better about it by the day.

ETA- *TE premium

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The two times I dealt Gurley this offseason was actually extremely easy. I did not create a post indicating  I was looking to move him, did not want to look desperate. On both teams I knew I wanted or needed a RB in return so I had a small handful of young, mainly next tier RB's I wanted. I scanned rosters for who had these players, looked over how Gurley made sense for them and what extra to the young RB I was going to request did they have to give me that made sense to them. I was also putting his value in the player 5-6 range, and I think that's key and this was few months ago, I was not entering these trades like I was hawking guy who in December was still in discussion with Barkely for 1.1. I ended up trading him to the only two teams I ever offered him to in a trade, one with zero negotiation and one that required a little back and forth and that back and forth was all on the side dishes of the trade. All in all both trades were quick and easy and 2 for 2 on teams I offered him to accept ratio.

In my experience in leagues people have tried to deal Gurley it's because they are trying to get like a top 4 RB. In last week I've had offers for him wanting  CMC and Kamara and that's going to be hard to pull off now. When I dealt him I made offers thinking of him in terms of 5-6 overall player. Might want to think in terms of 7-10 kind of range now.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

The two times I dealt Gurley this offseason was actually extremely easy. I did not create a post indicating  I was looking to move him, did not want to look desperate. On both teams I knew I wanted or needed a RB in return so I had a small handful of young, mainly next tier RB's I wanted. I scanned rosters for who had these players, looked over how Gurley made sense for them and what extra to the young RB I was going to request did they have to give me that made sense to them. I was also putting his value in the player 5-6 range, and I think that's key and this was few months ago, I was not entering these trades like I was hawking guy who in December was still in discussion with Barkely for 1.1. I ended up trading him to the only two teams I ever offered him to in a trade, one with zero negotiation and one that required a little back and forth and that back and forth was all on the side dishes of the trade. All in all both trades were quick and easy and 2 for 2 on teams I offered him to accept ratio.

In my experience in leagues people have tried to deal Gurley it's because they are trying to get like a top 4 RB. In last week I've had offers for him wanting  CMC and Kamara and that's going to be hard to pull off now. When I dealt him I made offers thinking of him in terms of 5-6 overall player. Might want to think in terms of 7-10 kind of range now.

Can you post the trades?

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

Can you post the trades?

I did in the trade thread when I made them and did not want to keep making people read my trades but since you asked. These trades were made in February I think, for sure before FA.

Gurley/Golladay for Dalvin/Mike Evans and cutting out the non-essential parts of the trade the other one was Gurley/McKinnon/2.11 for Fournette/Lindsay/Kupp and a 2020#1.

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44 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I did in the trade thread when I made them and did not want to keep making people read my trades but since you asked. These trades were made in February I think, for sure before FA.

Gurley/Golladay for Dalvin/Mike Evans and cutting out the non-essential parts of the trade the other one was Gurley/McKinnon/2.11 for Fournette/Lindsay/Kupp and a 2020#1.

Thanks.

I like the them both for you.

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8 hours ago, northern exposure said:

RNC = Reject, no counter-offer? What do you consider to be a "moderate hit" in a return for Gurley?

Yes, reject no counter.  I offered him for the 1.02 and a 2020 1st.  I offered him for $FAAB (we also do RFA process with this, the amount I requested would be enough to get say Amari Cooper) plus a 2020 1st.  Those are laughable offers 5 months ago yet today it's flipped.

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13 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Yes, reject no counter.  I offered him for the 1.02 and a 2020 1st.  I offered him for $FAAB (we also do RFA process with this, the amount I requested would be enough to get say Amari Cooper) plus a 2020 1st.  Those are laughable offers 5 months ago yet today it's flipped.

I'm thinking you must be in a contract league to have RFA. How many years does Gurley have, out of curiosity. 

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31 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I'm thinking you must be in a contract league to have RFA. How many years does Gurley have, out of curiosity. 

We are, and this is a couple of different leagues.  One has a lead-pipe lock Franchise Tag rule, so the contract is kind of irrelevant, but the other is a 4 year contract.  These aren't the only ones I have thrown out, but they are representative of the "hit" I am willing to take.

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On 4/4/2019 at 1:56 PM, Hankmoody said:

Well I will tell you what I can't move Gurley to save my life.  I'm willing to take a moderate hit on a couple of teams to stock up on other goodies but I am getting RNC all over the place.

I’m trying to figure out if Gurley is a hold, sell now, or wait for his value to go back up and sell then. 

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Does anyone think the “2019 class stinks” narrative is a little overplayed? While there isn’t an obvious “elite” player like Barkley/Zeke/gurley it seems to me to be a better wr class than the last couple years. Kind of like the “David Johnson is old” narrative- he’s 26 going on 30. It gets repeated over and over in 2017 that the 2019 class looks weak and it just becomes normalized. Picks are devalued this year because of it, and I’m trying to capitalize. 

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5 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Does anyone think the “2019 class stinks” narrative is a little overplayed? While there isn’t an obvious “elite” player like Barkley/Zeke/gurley it seems to me to be a better wr class than the last couple years. Kind of like the “David Johnson is old” narrative- he’s 26 going on 30. It gets repeated over and over in 2017 that the 2019 class looks weak and it just becomes normalized. Picks are devalued this year because of it, and I’m trying to capitalize. 

It's like the 2016 draft without Elliott.  The top receivers - doctson, treadwell, Coleman - all had warts but that draft also had Michael thomas, tyreek hill, Tyler boyd, Derrick Henry, Jordan Howard, Kenyan drake. hunter henry, and some ok producers like fuller and shepherd. Everyone talked about how terrible that draft was but it produced 3 elite guys and a bunch of starters. 

The difference is that 2017 produced mixon McCaffrey fournette dalvin cook and more in the clear top 5, and 2018 produced barkley guice sony chubb dj moore at or near the top. 

Which 2019 player profile sounds best to you?   A running back who isn't very athletic and didn't play many snaps but checks all the other boxes?  A big strong fast receiver who doesn't run many routes?  A big slot receiver? A short but really athletic quarterback? 

Forget the names, forget calling people "second round prospects" or whatever, those all sound like "guys who could break out in spite of their flaws" instead of "guys who I can build around". 

If you endured a rebuild and got a bunch of early picks this year, you're hoping that some pan out. That's a little scary compared to other years. 

 

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