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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks.  These guys hit at what, a 20% rate?  15%?  It's a miserable number.  I'd be pretty surprised if

On 6/25/2019 at 1:07 PM, RC94 said:

With Doyle healthy again, I'm not confident Ebron can reproduce last year's results so I would be a seller on him.  I had him in 1 league and right after the season traded him and a 2020 2nd for a 2021 1st.

Doyle has recovered from his hip surgery.  He is still recovering from the kidney procedure.  He has lost 25 lbs since this start and is trying to put the weight back on. 

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1 hour ago, FreshiZ said:

I'd love to get a 2nd for Samuels.

What about Eckler? Any chance I can get a 2nd for him? Seems like he's got a pretty capped ceiling. Is he even a handcuff to Gordon?

Maybe he's worth a 2nd to the Gordon owner, but I have my doubts.  Not a slamdunk handcuff imo.

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10 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Doyle has recovered from his hip surgery.  He is still recovering from the kidney procedure.  He has lost 25 lbs since this start and is trying to put the weight back on. 

Wow - good info.

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2 hours ago, FreshiZ said:

I'd love to get a 2nd for Samuels.

What about Eckler? Any chance I can get a 2nd for him? Seems like he's got a pretty capped ceiling. Is he even a handcuff to Gordon?

In a league where I have a very strong team (won it last season) but lost some RB depth I acquired Eckler for a third round pick from a rebuilding team. I don't agree his ceiling is capped since Gordon has shown to get banged up a bit - but if Gordon is healthy, yes. I still think he's ahead of Justin Jackson, but Jackson does have a shot to earn a role if Gordon goes down. I think Eckler is a decent guy to roster in ppr leagues since he'll have standalone bye week value and has upside if Gordon goes down. With that said, he's probably a career backup type so if the Chargers move on from Gordon, I doubt Eckler takes over. They likely draft a RB or sign a cheaper option (than Gordon) in free agency. 

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Assuming for the moment that Tyreek Hill ends up with a short suspension (and stays out of trouble), how do folks see his value vs Godwin? Hill nearly won a league for me last year, and I have a chance to get him in a separate salary cap league this year, but it would cost me Godwin (who I have at 1/6 the salary, which would equate to me being able to hang onto him for 2 years longer than I could Hill).

We've seen what Hill can do, and with Mahomes chucking it, he's a threat for 30FP in just about any game.  Godwin's got more prototypical WR size, but is also sharing the pie with Evans (and Howard to an extent) so I can't see his ceiling being nearly as high.

Most current rankings seem to be downgrading Hill considerably based on the legal/suspension potential, which I get.  That Dynasty 101 trade calculator on the last page has Hill in tier 4 right now, and rated lower than Godwin.  How much is that going to bounce back if he only ends up getting 2 games (or none, which has been speculated recently)?  

Again, this is all assuming Hill gets good news from the league, and stays on the field.  I guess really I want to know: Does Godwin have top 5-10 WR talent/opportunity over the next couple of years?

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58 minutes ago, heckmanm said:

Assuming for the moment that Tyreek Hill ends up with a short suspension (and stays out of trouble), how do folks see his value vs Godwin? Hill nearly won a league for me last year, and I have a chance to get him in a separate salary cap league this year, but it would cost me Godwin (who I have at 1/6 the salary, which would equate to me being able to hang onto him for 2 years longer than I could Hill).

We've seen what Hill can do, and with Mahomes chucking it, he's a threat for 30FP in just about any game.  Godwin's got more prototypical WR size, but is also sharing the pie with Evans (and Howard to an extent) so I can't see his ceiling being nearly as high.

Most current rankings seem to be downgrading Hill considerably based on the legal/suspension potential, which I get.  That Dynasty 101 trade calculator on the last page has Hill in tier 4 right now, and rated lower than Godwin.  How much is that going to bounce back if he only ends up getting 2 games (or none, which has been speculated recently)?  

Again, this is all assuming Hill gets good news from the league, and stays on the field.  I guess really I want to know: Does Godwin have top 5-10 WR talent/opportunity over the next couple of years?

I think Hill's value is pretty close to bouncing back relatively heavily.

I just took him 3.10 in a startup (Godwin went 5.07) and I think that value will only continue to rise for Hill.  He won't be back to where he was but I think he'll settle in around 2nd round startup value as we approach the season if the suspension is indeed 4 or fewer games.

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19 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think Hill's value is pretty close to bouncing back relatively heavily.

I just took him 3.10 in a startup (Godwin when 5.07) and I think that value will only continue to rise for Hill.  He won't be back to where he was but I think he'll settle in around 2nd round startup value as we approach the season if the suspension is indeed 4 or fewer games.

Thanks. Shortly after posting that,  I found some older rankings on that same Dyansty 101 site (from Feb/Mar) that had Hill at WR11 and Godwin at WR41, which is about what I was thinking for Hill absent the off-field issues, and Godwin still with Adam Humphries on the team at that point.

The latest FBG rankings have Godwin at 24 (with Humphries gone) and Hill at 27, but if Hill gets a reprieve, I think he shoots right back up near the top 10, with Godwin still around that 24 spot.

So my evaluation if Hill gets good news is more  like WR10-15 for 7% of my salary cap vs WR24 for 1.25%, which is a little more concrete an evaluation for me. This league has salaries escalate from 1 to 10 units per year (400 cap), so I could hang on to Godwin at least 2 years longer than Hill if they ended up similarly valuable.  But if I'm trying to win in the next year or two, Hill's ceiling is probably worth it. 

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What are your guys thoughts on Goedert? Is he a buy now or during the season? I want more of him on my teams but can't get owners to budge. Also, thoughts on Irv Smith Jr.? Is he a buy now or during the season once he's locked into the backup role? 

 

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7 hours ago, FreshiZ said:

I'd love to get a 2nd for Samuels.

What about Eckler? Any chance I can get a 2nd for him? Seems like he's got a pretty capped ceiling. Is he even a handcuff to Gordon?

I think Ekeler is better than Samuels. He's the only RB in the NFL to have over 5 yards per carry, and 1 yards per catch in each of the last 2 years. I think he's one of the best pass catching RB's in the NFL, and is probably underused by the Chargers. He wasn't as bad as people remember when Gordon went down last year either. He had 3 games he started, and was good in 1, ok in 1, and bad in 1. Perhaps its a coincidence, but the Chargers went undefeated in games Gordon missed. 

I think Ekeler has a 50-50 shot of being the heir apparent in LA. I'm not worried about Jackson at all. I do worry that Gordon will be franchise tagged next off season, but I can't imagine a long term deal unless its very team friendly, just based on Gordon's health issues.

I'd value Ekeler as a mid 2nd rounder. Roughly equal to Damien Harris. Maybe even Justice Hill.

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40 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

What are your guys thoughts on Goedert? Is he a buy now or during the season? I want more of him on my teams but can't get owners to budge. Also, thoughts on Irv Smith Jr.? Is he a buy now or during the season once he's locked into the backup role? 

 

I wouldn’t buy Goedert at all because you have to pay a price that assumes Ertz isn’t there.  Which makes some sense but not a lot.  Ertz himself is one of the best TEs in true NFL, and people assume he’ll get pushed aside?  

If the price is reasonable then sure I’d buy for an early-mid 2nd, maybe a late 1st if I had Ertz already.  But no chance I pay higher for a guy that probably isn’t fantasy startable this year.  

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21 hours ago, Milkman said:

I do think Samuels is going to push Conner off the field. I don't however know when it will happen. Could be week 8.......Could be next year........

Why do you think this? I'm not being a "debate me!" guy, I just want to read your opinion as I don't see it at all. Maybe I have a massive blind spot. 

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5 hours ago, dipandglide said:

What are your guys thoughts on Goedert? Is he a buy now or during the season? I want more of him on my teams but can't get owners to budge. Also, thoughts on Irv Smith Jr.? Is he a buy now or during the season once he's locked into the backup role? 

 

You def want to buy him but he could still be a couple years away. That's an eternity in FF. The Eagles were a terrible landing spot for him unfortunately. 

If you can get him and sit on him. Wait for him to have two quiet games in a row and try then. Have him be more of a throw in piece that the main focus of the trade. 

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What’s Ito Smith worth? Last year he looked...ok. Now he’s inheriting a backup role with a history of very solid touches (by backup standards) in a good offense, behind a starter with a balky knee who may or may not still be any good at this point.

I’m lukewarm on the player but he seems to have a very plausible path to league-winning opportunity

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1 hour ago, EthnicFury said:

What’s Ito Smith worth? Last year he looked...ok. Now he’s inheriting a backup role with a history of very solid touches (by backup standards) in a good offense, behind a starter with a balky knee who may or may not still be any good at this point.

I’m lukewarm on the player but he seems to have a very plausible path to league-winning opportunity

I wouldn't pay all that much to be honest. Like you said he looked "ok" but it's extremely doubtful he's their RB of the future and even if Freeman went down this year how comfortable would you be starting Ito Smith? If you're a contending team you should have better depth than that. If I was desperate (in season) maybe I'd give a late second, but right now acquiring him wouldn't even be on my radar.

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2 hours ago, EthnicFury said:

What’s Ito Smith worth? Last year he looked...ok. Now he’s inheriting a backup role with a history of very solid touches (by backup standards) in a good offense, behind a starter with a balky knee who may or may not still be any good at this point.

I’m lukewarm on the player but he seems to have a very plausible path to league-winning opportunity

Freeman is as likely as any RB to get injured, but Smith was pretty unproductive last season. 3.5 YPC, and 5.6 YPR are bottom of the barrel. I was surprised they didn't address RB higher in the draft. 

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I think Ito is a decent buy at his current (cheap) prices.

These later round guys often disappoint in their first action only to bounce back pretty nicely after getting acclimated.  We don't really have to look much further than the guy he's behind now for that as Freeman himself was a 4th round pick that had a below par rookie year and saw lots of people giving up on him.

I'm not expecting Ito to be the next Freeman, but I think opportunity is extra important with these later round guys and it doesn't seem that far fetched that Ito has a nice value boost when Freeman misses some time and he puts together a nice game or two.

He seems like a guy you can buy for a late 2nd/early 3rd right now with a decent chance of being able to sell for a late 1st/early 2nd during the season at some point.

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3 hours ago, EthnicFury said:

What’s Ito Smith worth? Last year he looked...ok. Now he’s inheriting a backup role with a history of very solid touches (by backup standards) in a good offense, behind a starter with a balky knee who may or may not still be any good at this point.

I’m lukewarm on the player but he seems to have a very plausible path to league-winning opportunity

Personally I saw enough from Ito last year to say he's RBBC at best.  I'd rather take a chance on a guy like Brian Hill in that offense cause he's due for a larger workload IF he pans out and IF Freeman were to go down.  Ito Smith isn't the type of guy I'd want to buy.  

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Dak or Jimmy G? Opinions seem to be all over on these guys. Who do you got 

Can you be more specific?  Which one of them do I have ranked higher going forward?  For this year only? 

Not sure I want either of them to be my QB1, but both are a complement to an old QB in superflex

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18 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Can you be more specific?  Which one of them do I have ranked higher going forward?  For this year only? 

Not sure I want either of them to be my QB1, but both are a complement to an old QB in superflex

well, this is a dynasty value thread so I'd say going forward. 

Waldman has Dak super high, FNG dynasty value chart has Dak I think in the high teens, Jimmy ranked much better. Dak is among good company when you look at his first 3 years compared to some of the elites of today, but theres a common perception that he cant throw a ball. Jimmy has real impressive stats over the 10 games he's played in. That offense has more weapons than hes ever had in SF. Yet several people dont think hes the real deal. 

 

These are two QBs, one I'd like to target, but not sure exactly which one. They seem polarizing with no real consensus out there. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Dak or Jimmy G? Opinions seem to be all over on these guys. Who do you got 

Straight up I take Dak > Jimmy Garopp's.  I like both long term though.  Garopp takes over for Brady/Ben/Brees and is a top15 dynasty QB in his own right.  

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6 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think Ito is a decent buy at his current (cheap) prices.

I think he is a sell because he is terrible and people with Freeman are nervous. I got Gesicki for him in one league and Nyheim Hines for him in another. Neither is a great value increase but players I feel have a better chance. In a 3rd league I was able to increase the value of Freeman enough to get full value. In a 4th league I was rejected on an offer for Dede Westbrook but got some interest back that I was too lazy to follow up on. TBH I was surprised I could probably have moved him in all four leagues, and in those same leagues Ollison gets no draft interest (5th or undrafted). To me he seems like a guy you can get a 2nd for now who may have no value next year.

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I like Garappolo more than Prescott. I think he's got a more well rounded coaching staff and supporting cast going forward. He's also a more aggressive passer, and the 49ers put up 400 more yards and 4 more passing TD's last year, despite starting all but 3 games with backup QB's. Those numbers could go up with Jimmy G, and an improved group of pass catchers.

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Just now, travdogg said:

I like Garappolo more than Prescott. I think he's got a more well rounded coaching staff and supporting cast going forward. He's also a more aggressive passer, and the 49ers put up 400 more yards and 4 more passing TD's last year, despite starting all but 3 games with backup QB's. Those numbers could go up with Jimmy G, and an improved group of pass catchers.

lol this is what I'm talking about. some people make a hell of a case for Jimmy but the same could be made for Dak. I suppose cant go wrong. 

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45 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Aaron Rodgers should bounce back to 30+ TDs this year, right? What would you give for an older QB like him or Roethlisberger? A lone 2nd? More?

QBs are so hard to value.

Depends on the size of your league, really.  12 teams makes QBs very cheap.  16 or larger and they get rather expensive. 

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Aaron Rodgers should bounce back to 30+ TDs this year, right? What would you give for an older QB like him or Roethlisberger? A lone 2nd? More?

QBs are so hard to value.

I wouldn't put Rodgers and Ben in the same price bracket personally, like it seems you did here. But if I needed a QB as a competitor, I'd pay that for Rodgers easily. I'd try to pay a bit more for a sexier option first but that's just me. 

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6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Aaron Rodgers should bounce back to 30+ TDs this year, right? What would you give for an older QB like him or Roethlisberger? A lone 2nd? More?

QBs are so hard to value.

He should absolutely regress to the mean and get 30 plus. I have a feeling he could go off this year. If one or more of those non-Adams WRs take a step forward and if Jones produces, Rodgers could have a big year. And if their defense continues to suck. If I felt I needed an elite QB I'd pay a 1st. But hopefully I'd be confident it is late. If it is this year's draft picks maybe mid 1st if I felt QB was my weakest spot and I wanted to win now. I'd pay about the same for Murray, though. 

Only other reservation is that I *think* GB has a tough FF playoff schedule this year but that's not much of a factor. 

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9 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Aaron Rodgers should bounce back to 30+ TDs this year, right? What would you give for an older QB like him or Roethlisberger? A lone 2nd? More?

QBs are so hard to value.

I'd go as high as 1.5 for Rodgers. He's had some disappointing seasons, but could still have a #1 finish in him. 

I'd probably go late 2nd round for Roethlisberger. He's losing the best WR he's ever had(I'd argue the best WR in Steelers history) and has flirted with retirement. He's not really a guy I'm very interested in. If I wanted a vet QB who I could maybe get for a 2nd rounder, I'd look at Matt Ryan.

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The massive disparity in the value of Rodgers/Ben is interesting given that Ben has been better over the last 2 years and is only 1.5 years older.

It's true that Rodgers could still have a #1 finish in him but you can say that about a lot of QBs that are younger and much cheaper (Matt Ryan and Cam Newton for starters).

Rodgers' efficiency has dropped off substantially from where it was in the true prime of his career and heading into the back half of his 30's his rushing numbers, which have always been a great boon for him relative to other pocket passers, could start tailing off any day now.

He's a nice fantasy QB but there are literally a dozen of those in the league right now and in 12 team leagues basically everyone has one.  I don't see a ton to differentiate him from the rest any longer unless he suddenly pops his efficiency back to where it used to be (a full ypa if not more above where it's been the last 4 years) other than his name, which is really what is currently giving him more trade value than the rest QB1's in that tier and below.

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Hypothetical situation/question here. 

Lets say 21 year old Kyler Murray comes out and lights the NFL on fire. Let's say he has a rookie season where he throws for 4700 yards 37 TDs and runs for 700 yards and 7 more scores. I understand nobody here thinks he's going to do that but lets just pretend for discussion sake that it happens.

Would he be ranked higher than Mahomes in dynasty and how high would that put him in your 1QB overall dynasty rankings?

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

Hypothetical situation question here. 

Lets say 21 year old Kyler Murray comes out and lights the NFL on fire. Let's say he has a rookie season where he throws for 4700 yards 37 TDs and runs for 700 yards and 7 more scores. I understand nobody here thinks he's going to do that but lets just pretend for discussion sake that it happens.

Would he be ranked higher than Mahomes in dynasty and how high would that put him in your 1QB overall dynasty rankings?

If he did that as a rookie he'd be #1 with a bullet.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

If he did that as a rookie he'd be #1 with a bullet.

#1 QB is what you mean right? So you would put him ahead of Mahomes even if Mahomes has another big year?

Where would you put him in your overall rankings? Top 10? 20?

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Hypothetical situation/question here. 

Lets say 21 year old Kyler Murray comes out and lights the NFL on fire. Let's say he has a rookie season where he throws for 4700 yards 37 TDs and runs for 700 yards and 7 more scores. I understand nobody here thinks he's going to do that but lets just pretend for discussion sake that it happens.

Would he be ranked higher than Mahomes in dynasty and how high would that put him in your 1QB overall dynasty rankings?

Well part of it depends on what Mahomes does this year but in generaly given two elite QBs I will take the one that can run.  It is just such a huge advantage for fantasy.

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5 minutes ago, Milkman said:

#1 QB is what you mean right? So you would put him ahead of Mahomes even if Mahomes has another big year?

Where would you put him in your overall rankings? Top 10? 20?

Yes #1 QB. 

Not sure about overall.

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1 hour ago, dipandglide said:

Thoughts on Mecole Hardman? His value is slipping due to the recent Hill news. 

Hardman is interesting to me. Its still entirely possible he's the #1 WR in 2020. Watkins likely won't be back at his salary unless he really plays well, and stays healthy this year, and Hill has both off field, and contract question marks. 

Truthfully, his value remains about the same to me. 1.8 still sounds fair to me, just due to his ceiling with Mahomes. I don't really see him as very different from Campbell or Samuel.

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55 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Hardman is interesting to me. Its still entirely possible he's the #1 WR in 2020. Watkins likely won't be back at his salary unless he really plays well, and stays healthy this year, and Hill has both off field, and contract question marks. 

Truthfully, his value remains about the same to me. 1.8 still sounds fair to me, just due to his ceiling with Mahomes. I don't really see him as very different from Campbell or Samuel.

I was pretty high on Hardman when things were looking bad for Tyreek but he is worth quite a bit less to me now.  I apparently think the likelihood that Hill is on the Chiefs in 2020 and beyond is higher than most though.

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On 7/12/2019 at 3:50 PM, Milkman said:

Hypothetical situation/question here. 

Lets say 21 year old Kyler Murray comes out and lights the NFL on fire. Let's say he has a rookie season where he throws for 4700 yards 37 TDs and runs for 700 yards and 7 more scores. I understand nobody here thinks he's going to do that but lets just pretend for discussion sake that it happens.

Would he be ranked higher than Mahomes in dynasty and how high would that put him in your 1QB overall dynasty rankings?

It would depend what Mahomes and maybe Goff do but assuming those numbers I couldn’t argue with anyone that had Murray as the QB1 after a season like that.

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On 7/12/2019 at 5:11 PM, travdogg said:

Hardman is interesting to me. Its still entirely possible he's the #1 WR in 2020. Watkins likely won't be back at his salary unless he really plays well, and stays healthy this year, and Hill has both off field, and contract question marks. 

Truthfully, his value remains about the same to me. 1.8 still sounds fair to me, just due to his ceiling with Mahomes. I don't really see him as very different from Campbell or Samuel.

I don’t own him anywhere but that’s a good way to look at it. May be a target later in the season.

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41 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It would depend what Mahomes and maybe Goff do but assuming those numbers I couldn’t argue with anyone that had Murray as the QB1 after a season like that.

So where would you put him overall with that hypothetical season. Top 20 over in dynasty?

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

So where would you put him overall with that hypothetical season. Top 20 over in dynasty?

I’d need to put more thought into it. I don’t generally value QBs highly because my leagues are all 1QB but that’s an impressive rookie year.

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8 minutes ago, Milkman said:

So where would you put him overall with that hypothetical season. Top 20 over in dynasty?

Not in 1 qb leagues. If he has that kind of season for superflex or 2qb then I'd say he should be in that conversation absolutely. 

 

What I'd be saying, and you can save this for if he does have a good season, is that I'd expect a down sophomore year. 

Maybe I'm wrong but it seems to happen often where a qb such as Murray has an awesome first season. Especially these running QBs (ex: Vick, Kaepernick, Mariota) and their sophomore years are complete busts. Teams figure out how to scheme for these guys, and the next year they're ready for it. I'd expect something similar for Murray if he had success the first year (maybe not a complete bust but not as good as his first)

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Not in 1 qb leagues. If he has that kind of season for superflex or 2qb then I'd say he should be in that conversation absolutely. 

 

What I'd be saying, and you can save this for if he does have a good season, is that I'd expect a down sophomore year. 

Maybe I'm wrong but it seems to happen often where a qb such as Murray has an awesome first season. Especially these running QBs (ex: Vick, Kaepernick, Mariota) and their sophomore years are complete busts. Teams figure out how to scheme for these guys, and the next year they're ready for it. I'd expect something similar for Murray if he had success the first year (maybe not a complete bust but not as good as his first)

I respect that. I see special and imo Murray has to much arm talent to scheme him. He's not only a running QB. He's got an A level arm. He's accurate and after seeing that video of him running with Isabella he also has low 4.3 speed. He's like the ultimate weapon. 

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