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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (3 Viewers)

I guess there haven't been any trades involving Josh Allen recently.

Let me ask a different question then. How many QBs in the 2020 draft class would you rank ahead of Josh? I have a late 2nd round pick where I can probably get the 3rd or 4th QB to be drafted by our 14 team league and am wondering if the QB I get there is likely to be better than Josh.
I have turned down 2 trade offer for J Allen Buff QB....  I have him ranked Top 10 Dynasty though....  

1) I was offered D Cook & A Jeffery for N Chubb & J Allen              I consider Cook = Chubb so it makes me see J Allen for Alshon not what I want to do.... 

2) I was offered 2.08 for J Allen & Jeremy Sprinkle Was TE            I like both more than pick so not worth it for me. 

 
Not sure where Kupp is being valued but was offered him for McLaurin and my 1.12 and I passed. I could be wrong but seems like Redskins offense has no where to go but up and Rams seem on the decline. Thoughts? 

 
Not sure where Kupp is being valued but was offered him for McLaurin and my 1.12 and I passed. I could be wrong but seems like Redskins offense has no where to go but up and Rams seem on the decline. Thoughts? 
I'd take the pick and mclaurin for kupp, and I have kupp in a few leagues. 

I actually think Goff is a good value target right now. I think they'll bounce back. 

 
Not sure where Kupp is being valued but was offered him for McLaurin and my 1.12 and I passed. I could be wrong but seems like Redskins offense has no where to go but up and Rams seem on the decline. Thoughts? 
Kupp's not easy for me to evaluate.  First half of season Kupp is everything I want in a fantasy WR and I'd snap accept this trade. Second half Kupp averaged 4.5 catches for a measly 46 yards a game but kind of hid it a bit by scoring 5 TD's. First half Kupp was a no decision starting lineup player. Second half Kupp I was benching in some leagues.

So why the dropoff? How you answer that would determine what I'd do. Was he hurt/banged up? Did defenses figure something out? Did the Rams rely more on Higbee at his expense?

I wish I had the answer but I don't. All I can say is if you think his second half was a correctable aberration I'd jump on this deal. If you think his second half was more a sign of things to come it's a hard pass.

 
Not sure where Kupp is being valued but was offered him for McLaurin and my 1.12 and I passed. I could be wrong but seems like Redskins offense has no where to go but up and Rams seem on the decline. Thoughts? 
I would pass there, personally.  I was going to chime in with how I felt about Kupp but meno literally took the words out of my mouth.  Terry looked like a legitimate star in the making to me last year.  Now, I do have concerns about his QB, because Haskins is going to have to take a huge step forward from last year if he's going to make it long-term.  But Terry is talented.

 
Kareem Hunt ? Owner approached me about Hunt, I am not sure what to ask in return to be honest ( talking about picks here) 1.05 way too high but 2.05 is seems to be low, what about 2021 1st ? too high ?

 
Kareem Hunt ? Owner approached me about Hunt, I am not sure what to ask in return to be honest ( talking about picks here) 1.05 way too high but 2.05 is seems to be low, what about 2021 1st ? too high ?
Someone put him on trade block in a league of mine last week, FFPC were rosters are tight and I offered 2.1. I also have 1.11 and 1.8 and I'd have and probably given the 1.11, two picks higher then what I offered, but not the 1.8 as my best guess is he's heading back for at least another year of being 1B to Chubb and I'm not even sure I have roster room plus my team needs WR really more then anything and 11 and 13 seem like good spots to address that.

He countered wanting 1.8,  2.1 and Tarik Cohen.

I was out and frankly sort of annoyed not so much at the counter but this whole process of people putting players on the trade block and then wanting more then they are worth. Like no crap, who's not available if you want to overpay? Been a lot of that going around in leagues this offseason.

I own Hunt on a few teams and he's the player most people come at me wanting but I usually get offered crappy players or mid to late seconds. No one has offered me a pick as high as what I offered, though I'd have said no myself to 11 and 13 where I own him mainly because he's like my RB3 or RB4 on those teams so sort of need him now, but at same time can afford to wait another year if Cleveland uses RFA to retain him.

 
Was offered 1.3 for my Guice and Goff in a 1 QB league... should snap accept this yes?

My QBs would be tight with Kyler, Lock, Stidham but I'd also have 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.6- I have no other picks. 
Yes 

Kyler and lock would be fine in 1 start. If you want you could probably trade down from 6 a few spots for a veteran QB. Something like the 6 for Stafford and the 9-12 or so would be easy I'd think in that format. 

 
 high as what I offered, though I'd have said no myself to 11 and 13 where I own him mainly because he's like my RB3 or RB4 on those teams so sort of need him now, but at same time can afford to wait another year if Cleveland uses RFA to retain him.
Yeah, I think I'd trade him if offered a late first but its not an easy accept. I'll probably keep him where I have him, in one league I have him with Mostert, guice and not much else (and no early picks). So I probably need him. 

 
Yes 

Kyler and lock would be fine in 1 start. If you want you could probably trade down from 6 a few spots for a veteran QB. Something like the 6 for Stafford and the 9-12 or so would be easy I'd think in that format. 
Agree and we had good convo on Guice's trade value here recently and I'm warming up to some other RB's more. I like Kyler over Goff and it's one QB league so that means little to me, due to his injuries I'd probably move Guice down to more relative to rookie picks so I'd do it.

 
ffmail4me said:
Not sure where Kupp is being valued but was offered him for McLaurin and my 1.12 and I passed. I could be wrong but seems like Redskins offense has no where to go but up and Rams seem on the decline. Thoughts? 
I accepted a trade of the 1.09 plus a 2021 1st and 2nd for Kupp last month in a 12 team SF if that gives you any point of reference. I thought it was a fair price to cash out. I think that Kupp will still be a high WR2/fringe WR1 next year but his age is abnormally high for his experience and I could see the Rams drafting someone/focusing more on Woods and the TEs and limiting Kupp's production a bit from it's peak last year.

 
Amari Cooper vs AJ Brown?  How do you view them compared to each other.  I have an opinion but I'd rather hear other people first.  

 
Amari Cooper vs AJ Brown?  How do you view them compared to each other.  I have an opinion but I'd rather hear other people first.  
Give me Cooper still. I love Brown and drafted him in a lot of my leagues. The hype is insane right now. I need to see another year similar to last (preferably more volume) before I’d consider a move like this.

 
any thoughts on Zeke's value? his owner reached out asking what I'd give up for him... 

I offered 1.3 and 1.6... leaving me with 1.2 and 1.4. twitter says about 55/45 in favor of the picks. I'm surprised but feeling good if that's how people see it
Think that’s fair. Prolly try the 1.4 and 1.6 first.

 
The only way I would consider paying a 1st for Waller is if it was TE premium scoring, and even then it would be a very late 1st.
I agree with you but he was traded in an FFPC league of mine this weekend and got back Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams and OJ Howard. I could not believe it, no one in the league said a word about it on the message boards and as far I know no one objected or had an issue with it. 

I'd have taken Ridley straight up over him myself.

 
Hurst: zero value relative to roster size unless Andrews goes down or he gets traded. I did hear rumors of Ravens including him in trade offers near this past deadline  but just rumors I'm not sure had legs but because of that I grabbed him off some waiver wires last week or two of the season in some leagues just in case he gets dealt. If not, he's an easy cut for me.
I'm quoting myself here because this was part of my reply ranking out some TE's and I had Hurst ranked last with Andrews injury or trade caveat. Well....

@GeneFrenette

9h

Patriots, Jaguars exploring pre-draft trade for TE Hayden Hurst, but whether it happens will depend on what draft capital teams r willing to part with. Hurst, who Jags we’re going to draft in 2018 ,told me 2 months ago he wants opportunity to catch more passes. Stay tuned

 
I think that's fair value for Kupp. I am shopping him in the PPR dynasty I have him in. I need RB depth & I am in win now mode so I'd like to move him fora RB. I have no idea what sort of RBs I should try to get for him, though.
I was offered the very vague outline of "do you want to work something out centered on him and Kamara" in my dynasty league.  Unfortunately we're still on last year's salary cap so I had to table any discussion until the league rolled over.

 
Anyone know how to value top IDP guys? What's a top LB like Leonard or DE like Hunter worth, as an example.

It's easier to figure when they're included in a package deal with offensive players, but when it's exclusively IDP it's tougher.

 
Anyone know how to value top IDP guys? What's a top LB like Leonard or DE like Hunter worth, as an example.

It's easier to figure when they're included in a package deal with offensive players, but when it's exclusively IDP it's tougher.
So much depends on scoring when talking about IDP, particularly when trading offense for defense. Generally, the top DEs are worth the most cause there are fewer of them. 

 
Maybe I should move K. Allen instead, but his value has to be much less than Kupp, right? I could also move M. Evans or D. Adams or even DJ Moore as well. Pretty deep @ WR, but not at RB. Start 3 WR & 2 flex.
This seems to be one of those times where you offer up any and all of those guys and see which guy gets you what you want. You sometimes find that you can trade a lesser guy for a lesser RB but you might get an offer for one of your better WR that greatly improves your RB position.

 
Anyone know how to value top IDP guys? What's a top LB like Leonard or DE like Hunter worth, as an example.

It's easier to figure when they're included in a package deal with offensive players, but when it's exclusively IDP it's tougher.
Too much league variance for a one size fits all answer.  In a league where you only play 2 IDP players they are almost useless and have no value.  In a league where you start just as many IDP's as offensive players it evens out some but only if the scoring is equivalent.  If the IDP's score 5% of the offensive players then their value takes a hit again.

If the scoring is big play scoring (4+pts per sack vs 1 pt per tackle) then DE's and Rush LB's really increase in value.  If it's more balanced then the tackle hogs are premium.  It also has a lot to do with how your other league owners value them.  If they are afterthoughts they won't carry much value either. 

 
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Where are we valuing Ekeler right now? 12 team ppr, start 1-3 rb
Anywhere between RB10 and RB20 overall I think.  Depends on your view about Gordon and what's going to happen at QB.  A lot can change for that team in general, that makes the players either a buy low, or sell now.  Personally I think they're a QB away but they have no fan base and no home crowd so no field advantage which I think is an underrated aspect of NFL football.  Either way that puts him in line with a mid 1st value I think.  

 
So much depends on scoring when talking about IDP, particularly when trading offense for defense. Generally, the top DEs are worth the most cause there are fewer of them. 


Too much league variance for a one sits fits all answer.  In a league where you only play 2 IDP players they are almost useless and have no value.  In a league where you start just as many IDP's as offensive players it evens out some but only if the scoring is equivalent.  If the IDP's score 5% of the offensive players then their value takes a hit again.

If the scoring is big play scoring (4+pts per sack vs 1 pt per tackle) then DE's and Rush LB's really increase in value.  If it's more balanced then the tackle hogs are premium.  It also has a lot to do with how your other league owners value them.  If they are afterthoughts they won't carry much value either. 
So...No. 

Which is what I thought.

 
Where are we valuing Ekeler right now? 12 team ppr, start 1-3 rb
Woke up today to someone trying to trade him to me for both 6 and 8.

I consider him a sell. His fantasy production was under 5 points per game as a runner, about 15 as a receiver and both of those numbers dipped when Gordon was available and I expect them to add another RB.  I like RB's who are heavily involved in the passing game, but when it's mainly what you do you are basically Tarik Cohen which is not horrible but not worth what people are paying either.

Cohen slumped last year but his 2018 season was not that wildly far from what Cohen's season looked like when Gordon was playing last year.

Cohen in 2018, 6.18 carriers per game, 3.88 fantasy points per game as a rusher.  5.56 targets per game/ 4.43 receptions per game, 10.85 fantasy points per game as a receiver. Total fantasy production 14.73 PPG. 

Ekeler after Gordon returned, 6.3 carries per game, 3.3 fantasy points per game as a rusher. 6.91 targets per game/5.66 receptions per game and 13.7  fantasy points per game as a receiver. 17 fantasy points per game in total without Gordon. 2.25 over Cohen's 2018, which is not nothing but similar.

Now if you want to take a pro Ekeler stance you can say well Gordon is likely gone. I'd agree but they also probably add someone. What I think is a far bigger concern for a RB  who makes so much of his production in the passing game is unless they sign Brady, which could be a boon for him, we might be looking at a Tyrod keeping seat warm for a rookie and my guess is that rookie is Tua who probably won't play all year or Hebert who is more mobile and not as prone to need to throw short passes as Rivers.

I think Ekeler will be hard pressed to ever have that kind of fantasy production again as a receiver and I don't think he'll ever be a major producer as a runner.

In answer to your question specifically if you need a RB I don't think it's off to pay a first in back quarter, take that up to mid first if they landed someone like Brady(which I don't think they will).

 
Woke up today to someone trying to trade him to me for both 6 and 8.

I consider him a sell. His fantasy production was under 5 points per game as a runner, about 15 as a receiver and both of those numbers dipped when Gordon was available and I expect them to add another RB.  I like RB's who are heavily involved in the passing game, but when it's mainly what you do you are basically Tarik Cohen which is not horrible but not worth what people are paying either.

Cohen slumped last year but his 2018 season was not that wildly far from what Cohen's season looked like when Gordon was playing last year.

Cohen in 2018, 6.18 carriers per game, 3.88 fantasy points per game as a rusher.  5.56 targets per game/ 4.43 receptions per game, 10.85 fantasy points per game as a receiver. Total fantasy production 14.73 PPG. 

Ekeler after Gordon returned, 6.3 carries per game, 3.3 fantasy points per game as a rusher. 6.91 targets per game/5.66 receptions per game and 13.7  fantasy points per game as a receiver. 17 fantasy points per game in total without Gordon. 2.25 over Cohen's 2018, which is not nothing but similar.

Now if you want to take a pro Ekeler stance you can say well Gordon is likely gone. I'd agree but they also probably add someone. What I think is a far bigger concern for a RB  who makes so much of his production in the passing game is unless they sign Brady, which could be a boon for him, we might be looking at a Tyrod keeping seat warm for a rookie and my guess is that rookie is Tua who probably won't play all year or Hebert who is more mobile and not as prone to need to throw short passes as Rivers.

I think Ekeler will be hard pressed to ever have that kind of fantasy production again as a receiver and I don't think he'll ever be a major producer as a runner.

In answer to your question specifically if you need a RB I don't think it's off to pay a first in back quarter, take that up to mid first if they landed someone like Brady(which I don't think they will).
I generally agree with this. I am a big Ekeler fan, and I think he is definitely better than Cohen.

However, I think 2019 was likely his career year. I would feel a lot better about him if Rivers was back. With presumably Tyrod and/or a rookie QB in place of Rivers, I think the Chargers pass attempts will be reduced, reducing Ekeler's targets, and I think the quality of Ekeler's targets will also drop.

I would love to see him prove me wrong, but I think he is a sell.

 
The answer is yes.....but you didn't give enough info to provide a proper value for the top IDP's guys in your situation.
Even if I did, because all the variables by league are different, it would still be just a best guess on your part.

Which I guess IS what I was asking - but now I'm regretting it.

Just for fun - Zealots scoring:

Sacked a QB - 1 point for every .5

Quarterback Hits - 1 point each

Tackles - .75 point for every .5

Assists - .75 points each

51 man roster

Total Starters:18

Number of Starting QBs:1

Number of Starting RBs:1-5

Number of Starting WRs:2-5

Number of Starting TEs:1-5

Number of Starting DT+DEs:3

Number of Starting LBs:3

Number of Starting CB+Ss:3

 
This alone makes the top DL guys very valuable.
I agree. But IDP participants are weird. Half seem to value players according to worth and others seem to bake them according to where like good players would typically be drafted. So Hunter is probably(?) worth a first+ because of his talent but isn't perceived that way because he was likely drafted in the third+ round.

Anyway, this probably IS a topic for the IDP forum. Don't really want it clogging things up here.

 
Andy, I have a zealots team too and I have played there for a while so I will give my input. I know you have played their for a while too so you probably know that in rookie drafts the top LB generally goes late first round to mid 2nd (pick 10-18) and DL generally seems to go mid round 2 (pick 15-25) but when an elite DE comes up they sometimes jump to round 1. DB seems to slide into that late round 2 to somewhere in round 3 range so lets say (pick 20-30 range).

I generally think IDP guys in zealots (especially DL) rookie drafts get drafted too early. That being said if I had to assign a value to Leonard and Hunter I would say Leonard is probably in that 11-16 range and Hunter in that 12-18 range as their perceived market value.

I know I am loaded with picks this year (3,5,11,12,15,17,27,32,36,39,45,51,60,63,65,72) and a handful of them are in Chase Young territory but I am hard pressed to draft him based on my need on offense and owning C.Jones, Clowney, Cam Heyward, Hubbard, Ingram and Ioannidis. While it takes reaching with a pick a bit to get a guy like Miles Garrett or Chase Young if I am drafting the smart money is passing on them with your picks. For the most part my guess is I would be lucky to get round 3 picks for what I have at DL and I added Hubbard and Ioannidis on the free agent market last year so I feel I can find DL help when needed so I think what I outlined is a pretty accurate market value I find good LB difficult to acquire and DL easy to acquire in general.

 
@Warhogs good stuff!

I guess I did get my answer after all - the top IDP players are worth late 1sts/early 2nds. About what I thought. Specifically, I was asking because I'm in rebuild and was eyeing giving up Leonard for the available 1.11 pick.

Thanks guys! 👍

 
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Even if I did, because all the variables by league are different, it would still be just a best guess on your part.

Which I guess IS what I was asking - but now I'm regretting it.

Just for fun - Zealots scoring:

Sacked a QB - 1 point for every .5

Quarterback Hits - 1 point each

Tackles - .75 point for every .5

Assists - .75 points each

51 man roster

Total Starters:18

Number of Starting QBs:1

Number of Starting RBs:1-5

Number of Starting WRs:2-5

Number of Starting TEs:1-5

Number of Starting DT+DEs:3

Number of Starting LBs:3

Number of Starting CB+Ss:3
This would be considered balanced scoring because the sack values are so low vs the tackle numbers.  This really devalues the OLB's like Miller and Mack.  They don't get the tackle numbers to be worthwhile.  I assume the overall weekly scoring for IDP's is in line with the offense.  Meaning a average top IDP score for the week seems to be about 15 pts which would be about the same as the top offensive scoring guys.  If that assumption is wrong then the IDP's will drop/rise depending on where the scoring falls out.

Tackle hogs like Leonard will be priority players for most owners once IDP's start going off the board.  Some of the elite DL's could also be at that level....guys like Donald, Chandler Jones (if DE eligible), Hunter would fall into this category.  Basically the big name guys that most people know as good defensive players.  I would equate these guys to the RB/WR 15-25 range for value. 

However, one place you can gain an advantage is by putting in the time on the IDP side.  There are always lesser known guys that can give you 90-95% of the points of the "marquee" IDP players.  You can look to trade high on the name guys and back fill with the lesser name guys and not lose too much scoring.  This is where you can gain an advantage.  This also works in the draft.  You don't have to be the first to go after IDP if you have done your research. 

Typically everyone has the same offensive information.  There are thousands of cheat sheets and rankings so you cannot really find sleepers late.  However, you can get an edge on the IDP side if you do your homework because the sleeper/breakout guys info is harder to find. 

Hope this helps.....

 
I get:

Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB

Year 2021 Round 2 Draft Pick

I give:

Hill, Tyreek KCC WR

Year 2021 Round 1 Draft Pick

Is this an instant accept, strictly from a value point of view?

 
I get:

Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB

Year 2021 Round 2 Draft Pick

I give:

Hill, Tyreek KCC WR

Year 2021 Round 1 Draft Pick

Is this an instant accept, strictly from a value point of view?
I don't know that it is an instant accept depending on starting requirements and scoring. Example: I play in a PPR dynasty league where you must start at least 1 RB and up to 3. You must start I think it's 2 WR but up to 6. WR gains some value in a PPR format where you can start as little as 1 RB and up to 6 WR especially with the short dominant career span of most RB. That said, in this instance Reek has had some injury concerns so he is no slam dunk either. Both have had some off field issues in their past. I would be curious on starting lineup requirements and their PPG averages last year in your scoring.

 
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Add: I looked in my league Zeke was 2 PPG higher than Hill last year so in my league I would drop from round 1 to round 2 to gain the 2 points based on last year.
I think this is the only part of your analysis I disagree with.  We don't get points for last season, and there are a couple things different in both Dallas (new coach, loss of Amari?) and Kansas City (injuries to both Hill and Mahomes last year) which would indicate that 2019 may not be the best choice to model future production after.

 
Yeah that probably was a bit of a lazy point of analysis and I would probably look into a longer stretch of time and the situations more closely if it was my trade.

 
I suppose you could also look at draft rankings and ask yourself if Elliott is say #5 overall and Hill is #20 overall would I give that pick value up to move up. My general opinion is that in scoring formats with a lot of flex spots many owners tend to over value a RB compared to a WR.

 
I suppose you could also look at draft rankings and ask yourself if Elliott is say #5 overall and Hill is #20 overall would I give that pick value up to move up. My general opinion is that in scoring formats with a lot of flex spots many owners tend to over value a RB compared to a WR.
I see them at 12 and 17 in a recent SF draft.  They are at 5 and 9 currently on Mizelle.

As someone else pointed out, the scoring system and starting requirements do come into play.

From a different perspective, which player would you have an easier time retrading?  I think too many owners are still spooked by Hill's off the field issues (which resulted in zero suspension), and Zeke is the asset who could be resold to more teams.

 
Another factor that gets overlooked is just how good is your team. If I am stacked top to bottom I am more willing to give up that pick swap. If my starting lineup has a couple of meh starters I would rather use the draft capital to improve one of those meh starters because that probably benefits my overall starting lineup more.

 
I suppose you could also look at draft rankings and ask yourself if Elliott is say #5 overall and Hill is #20 overall would I give that pick value up to move up. My general opinion is that in scoring formats with a lot of flex spots many owners tend to over value a RB compared to a WR.
Last year before the season started I moved Zeke in one of my PPR dynasty leagues (where I was pretty good depth wise at RB) got Michael Thomas and the 1.12 and 2.12 (which turned into Henderson and Smith Jr. While I haven't had much dividends from the draft picks, I do think that was warranted in the deal, and obviously Thomas had a huge year. 

 
Thanks for all of the replies. My initial reaction was that it probably would be worth giving up Hill and moving down a round next year to get Zeke, but after looking at some rankings and ADP it looks like the 2 of them are closer than I thought. I really didn't think that Hill was considered a top 10 (or near top 10) player.

The league where I received the offer is similar to the one Warhogs described, with minimal required starters at RB/WR/TE and 3 flex positions. Looks like Zeke scored almost 3 points more per game than Hill did in this league. However, in 2018 Hill scored 328 points in this league and while I don't expect a repeat of that season something around 300 points seems reasonable if he stays healthy and out of trouble. The last 2 years Zeke has had 312 and 329 points in this league, so Zeke probably has a slight edge in scoring.

Adding Zeke would give me a backfield of him, Kamara, Lindsay and Damien Williams (plus others). Subtracting Hill would leave me with Godwin, Woods, Mike Williams, and Cooks (plus others) at WR.

Tough decision but I'm inclined to not move down in the draft to gain maybe a couple of points per game (if that). Seems to be a decision between the risk of Hill getting in more trouble vs. the changes in Dallas and the shorter playing career for RBs.

 
I get:

Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB

Year 2021 Round 2 Draft Pick

I give:

Hill, Tyreek KCC WR

Year 2021 Round 1 Draft Pick

Is this an instant accept, strictly from a value point of view?
Wow I like it. A legitimately difficult trade to gauge. 

*Inserts comment about how it depends on your roster and needs*

My takeaway is Hill>>Zeke by a small to moderate margin in terms of value to your boxscore over time. Hill should have much more fantasy relevant longevity than Zeke. But Zeke might win ships for you right now. But in a vacuum (another overused statement but it works) I take Hill over Zeke and so the 1st over the 2nd makes it a slam dunk. But outside of a vacuum I might go the other way to win now.

 

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