Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[FreeBaGeL 8,828]

On the early 2nd for future 1st discussion, one of my favorite things to do the last few years has been moving early 2nd + sweetener player for a future 1st.  Not negotiating that in or anything, just including the sweetener right away on the initial offer.

I find that if you try it without the player first with the idea of adding the player later, they've usually talked themselves out of the idea entirely by the time they decide to decline the first offer in this scenario.  So I really want them to take that first offer and with so many considering an early 2nd to be near the value of a future 1st right off the bat the sweetener is often enough to get them to feel like they are winning on value.

For instance a few years back after Jimmy G was moved to SF and had some hype (1qb league) I moved 2.04 + Jimmy G for a future 1st.  I also moved 2.01 + some player I can't even remember at this point for a future 1st in that same league.  Those picks ended up being 1.01 and 1.03 the next year (somewhat surprisingly) and really set my franchise up in that league.

Edited May 11, 2020 by FreeBaGeL

[Dez 1,084]

4 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Yup. This is a no brainer for me. I wouldn’t even offer my 2.04 for a future first to my league mates. It would feel like an insult. 

Someone insulted themselves in 1 of my FFPC this year then he traded his future 1st straight up for a 2.03 (took Pittman)

In another it was less of an insult he traded his future 1st for 2.01 (Then took Mims who I have seen fall as low as like 2.09) so maybe he double insulted himself.

Last year I had a chance to trade the guy who I just took at 1.12 for a future 1st and 2nd of a 2018 highly ranked playoff team but couldn't pull the trigger because JJAW was so sweet in the preseason.......oops also that guy's picks turned into 1.02 and 2.02 after he sold his team to a new owner.

Of course there are times when in 2017 you had a shot to get Kamara or Hunt in the 2nd round and would have hated dealing those guys for a future 1st.  Hunt not so much now but at the time you kick yourself.  In 1 of my leagues I got Hunt at 2.05.

Most times agree you rather have the future 1 but sometimes your kicking yourself when you pass up that 2nd round player who becomes a stud.  I mean those 1st round picks can become busts plenty.

[menobrown 3,712]

4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

Beyond that, I see no reason why we should assume that a guy entering his age 25 season has already had his best season. 

So FBG is again wrong on someone's date of birth by an entire year? Just no reason for that kind of error to continue to persist.

[Hot Sauce Guy 8,910]

5 hours ago, foxco said:

If he won't trade any WR then he's not being serious about an offer or he doesn't understand the value of QBs in SF. I usually back away politely from these types as it's almost always a waste of time.  

We made a nice deal involving Daniel Jones (to me) and Sutton (to him) plus some other pieces/picks, so I was a little surprised.

i would have taken a Lockett for him - that’s his 4th best WR. 

i may throw that  up to see if he bites. 

[ffmail4me 776]

Guys could I get your opinion on this trade offer? In the middle of a 12 team PPR dynasty start up (starting 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 3 regular flex positions) 

I was offered 5.1 and 6.7 for Sutton. 

Current Roster (we are currently at the 4.12 pick in the startup draft)

Chubb

Nuk, AJB, Sutton, Ridley 

I really like Sutton a lot, so curious if you guys think its worth moving him for those 2 picks. BA players at each position are QB- Murray, Watkins RB- Vaughn, Moss, Gordon, Bell WR- ALL rookie WRs, Diggs, Samuel, McLaurin, TE- Ertz, Engram

 

 

[robb 70]

33 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Guys could I get your opinion on this trade offer? In the middle of a 12 team PPR dynasty start up (starting 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 3 regular flex positions) 

I was offered 5.1 and 6.7 for Sutton. 

Current Roster (we are currently at the 4.12 pick in the startup draft)

Chubb

Nuk, AJB, Sutton, Ridley 

I really like Sutton a lot, so curious if you guys think its worth moving him for those 2 picks. BA players at each position are QB- Murray, Watkins RB- Vaughn, Moss, Gordon, Bell WR- ALL rookie WRs, Diggs, Samuel, McLaurin, TE- Ertz, Engram

 

 

This would be a tough one for me! I love Sutton, but a reason to make the trade is you have great WR. You could use Murray and a RB.

[Edgar 208]

36 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Guys could I get your opinion on this trade offer? In the middle of a 12 team PPR dynasty start up (starting 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 3 regular flex positions) 

I was offered 5.1 and 6.7 for Sutton. 

Current Roster (we are currently at the 4.12 pick in the startup draft)

Chubb

Nuk, AJB, Sutton, Ridley 

I really like Sutton a lot, so curious if you guys think its worth moving him for those 2 picks. BA players at each position are QB- Murray, Watkins RB- Vaughn, Moss, Gordon, Bell WR- ALL rookie WRs, Diggs, Samuel, McLaurin, TE- Ertz, Engram

 

 

Seems to be pretty good value for Sutton. You say ALL rookie WRs are available, and there are owners who may prefer Lamb or Jeudy straight up. Take one of them at 5.1 and BPA at 6.07. The downside is your team is built well to compete today 

[Zyphros 1,892]

11 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Guys could I get your opinion on this trade offer? In the middle of a 12 team PPR dynasty start up (starting 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 3 regular flex positions) 

I was offered 5.1 and 6.7 for Sutton. 

Current Roster (we are currently at the 4.12 pick in the startup draft)

Chubb

Nuk, AJB, Sutton, Ridley 

I really like Sutton a lot, so curious if you guys think its worth moving him for those 2 picks. BA players at each position are QB- Murray, Watkins RB- Vaughn, Moss, Gordon, Bell WR- ALL rookie WRs, Diggs, Samuel, McLaurin, TE- Ertz, Engram

 

 

I don't think I do it.  I'm pretty high on Sutton overall though.  None of who you mentioned is BA is a guy I'd really want to target in a startup (maybe McLaurin but I'd rather fade).  Sutton is beast potential and steady.  The only question is that offense in general but I'm not too concerned about a WR's situation as long as they're good. 

Just looking through my own rankings guys I have ranked near Diggs/McLaurin are OBJ/Robinson/Chark/Ridley/Lockett/Woods/Slayton/top5 rookie WR's, for WR's and Ekeler/Drake/Guice/Gurley/Singletary/Ronald Jones/Melvin/Carson.  None of the RB's are long term and the WR's are a little shaky with aged guys or questionable younger ones.  I'd rather have Sutton unless you're really bullish on one of those young WR's.  

 

[Gally 4,696]

12 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Guys could I get your opinion on this trade offer? In the middle of a 12 team PPR dynasty start up (starting 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 3 regular flex positions) 

I was offered 5.1 and 6.7 for Sutton. 

Current Roster (we are currently at the 4.12 pick in the startup draft)

Chubb

Nuk, AJB, Sutton, Ridley 

I really like Sutton a lot, so curious if you guys think its worth moving him for those 2 picks. BA players at each position are QB- Murray, Watkins RB- Vaughn, Moss, Gordon, Bell WR- ALL rookie WRs, Diggs, Samuel, McLaurin, TE- Ertz, Engram

 

 

Is this supposed to be Deshaun Watson?

[ffmail4me 776]

52 minutes ago, Gally said:

Is this supposed to be Deshaun Watson?

Yes, typo, although he went later, but I took Murray at the 6.3 spot. ( I didn't make the trade and kept Sutton) 

[menobrown 3,712]

13 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

 

I was offered 5.1 and 6.7 for Sutton.

I'm to late and you already passed but I'd have instantly accepted that offer.

[mcintyre1 3,294]

3 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

8 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I tried sending Fournette for Miles Sanders & got rejected. What type of players do you guys think I could add to make it get accepted? (Dynasty PPR)

Fournettes a tough sell. You may need to add a wr2-3 type to seal the deal... but it all depends on roster construction 

Yeah, Fournette is hard to move in either direction from my experience so far -- I'm not going to sell him for what the "market value" is, and it seems like no one else who has him will either. Agree on the WR2-3 type addition to get that trade done, but not sure I'd do that myself. 

[ffmail4me 776]

I'd happily give Harry or JJAW (or both) and Ebron with Fournette to get Sanders. I mean without hesitation. 

[Andy Dufresne 11,682]

I don't even like Fournette and I wouldn't trade him & Harry for Sanders.

Of course, based on nothing, I'm a believer in Harry making a leap this season.

[kutta 5,497]

12 team PPR - not involved.

Fournette, Devin Singletary, and Fuller

for

1.02

Edit: wrong thread.

Edited May 12, 2020 by kutta

[Wigglytuff's Gruff 31]

I've offered Fournette and Mike Williams for Sanders, Jacobs and others in the same range and no bites at all.

Nobody wants Fournette. 

Much like the Jags, I feel like Leonard will begrudgingly be on my roster when the season rolls around, and he'll probably be alright. You can just feel that value evaporating though.

[tangfoot 1,997]

18 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't even like Fournette and I wouldn't trade him & Harry for Sanders.

Of course, based on nothing, I'm a believer in Harry making a leap this season.

Fournette = late 1st round rookie pick (if you can get someone to pay that)

Harry = mid-2nd round rookie pick (if you can get someone to pay that)

Sanders = worth ~rookie pick 1.03, but I don't think anyone who has that pick is trading it for Sanders.  Let's say 1.05 to be safe.

 

I don't see any 2020 rookie draft scenarios where someone is giving up 1.05 for late 1st/mid-2nd.  You're looking at like 1.08/1.09 for that kind of deal.

[Andy Dufresne 11,682]

5 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Fournette = late 1st round rookie pick (if you can get someone to pay that)

Harry = mid-2nd round rookie pick (if you can get someone to pay that)

Sanders = worth ~rookie pick 1.03, but I don't think anyone who has that pick is trading it for Sanders.  Let's say 1.05 to be safe.

I don't see any 2020 rookie draft scenarios where someone is giving up 1.05 for late 1st/mid-2nd.  You're looking at like 1.08/1.09 for that kind of deal.

But we're not trading picks here. We're trading players. 

[tangfoot 1,997]

17 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

But we're not trading picks here. We're trading players. 

Am I the only one who assigns pick values to players in order to gauge whether a deal is to my benefit or not?

I mean, in my head Sanders is worth ridiculously more than Fournette/Harry.  I translated that into pick value for demonstration purposes

Edited May 13, 2020 by tangfoot

[Milkman 2,348]

1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Fournette = late 1st round rookie pick (if you can get someone to pay that)

Harry = mid-2nd round rookie pick (if you can get someone to pay that)

Sanders = worth ~rookie pick 1.03, but I don't think anyone who has that pick is trading it for Sanders.  Let's say 1.05 to be safe.

 

I don't see any 2020 rookie draft scenarios where someone is giving up 1.05 for late 1st/mid-2nd.  You're looking at like 1.08/1.09 for that kind of deal.

I'd give up the 1.05 for late 1st + mid-2nd in the draft. 

I also value Fournette more than Sanders but it's close enough it could go either way. 

[tangfoot 1,997]

15 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I'd give up the 1.05 for late 1st + mid-2nd in the draft. 

I also value Fournette more than Sanders but it's close enough it could go either way. 

I think most people see this draft as 7 top tier players and then a massive pool of next-tier guys.  I see a significant drop off at 1.08, which is why I said owners would consider trading that one in for two picks.

[Milkman 2,348]

16 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I think most people see this draft as 7 top tier players and then a massive pool of next-tier guys.  I see a significant drop off at 1.08, which is why I said owners would consider trading that one in for two picks.

Yeah my rankings are always a bit of an outlier. The massive drop hits after the 1.02 for me and the prospects I value more are going off the board early 2nd this year. 

I get what you're saying though. We just value Fournette and Sanders differently. 

[FreeBaGeL 8,828]

Neither Fournette/Harry nor Fournette/Williams would even get me a tiny bit interested as a Sanders owner.  Those combos are short by at least a future 1st and honestly I'm not even sure I'd give up Sanders with the 1st thrown on top.

I just find it fairly likely that this is Fournette's last year as anything more relevant than a flex play during bye weeks.  I doubt he has a workhorse role beyond next year and volume is the only thing he has going for him.

We just spent like 2 pages bagging on David Montgomery and I'm not sure I like Fournette much better than him.

Edited May 13, 2020 by FreeBaGeL

[Andy Dufresne 11,682]

Quite the hype train Sanders has going.

[Milkman 2,348]

8 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Quite the hype train Sanders has going.

 I got Fournette RB10 and Sanders RB14. Don't see Fournette having trouble getting a starting gig somewhere else after this year either if he has a nice year. Which I think he will. 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff 31]

8 minutes ago, Milkman said:

 I got Fournette RB10 and Sanders RB14. Don't see Fournette having trouble getting a starting gig somewhere else after this year either if he has a nice year. Which I think he will. 

I hope you're right my man because I am a Fournette owner and I don't think I have much of a choice about that anymore. 

[Milkman 2,348]

Just now, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

I hope you're right my man because I am a Fournette owner and I don't think I have much of a choice about that anymore. 

Contract year bro! Giddy up! Fournette would def be a buy low right now if I didn't already own him. 

[King of the Jungle 1,382]

1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Contract year bro! Giddy up! Fournette would def be a buy low right now if I didn't already own him. 

What rookie pick would you give up to get LF? Just curious. I am not overtly high on him even this year because I think Thompson sheds some of his PPR value. But I do agree he could be a buy low.

[SayWhat? 4,088]

1.08-1.09 IMO

[King of the Jungle 1,382]

6 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

1.08-1.09 IMO

I think I could get him for the 1.08 in my league but would rather have the pick even though it may be a good value. Doubt he gets resigned and then who knows where he ends up.

[kutta 5,497]

12 team PPR, start 1 QB

Gave 4.10

Got Ryan Tannehill

My only other QB is Rodgers (I also have Winston, but ya know...).

[Riddick02 173]

1 minute ago, kutta said:

12 team PPR, start 1 QB

Gave 4.10

Got Ryan Tannehill

My only other QB is Rodgers (I also have Winston, but ya know...).

Seems cheap for Tanny, even in a 12 man 1 QB league. 

[Boston 2,998]

16 minutes ago, kutta said:

12 team PPR, start 1 QB

Gave 4.10

Got Ryan Tannehill

My only other QB is Rodgers (I also have Winston, but ya know...).

Smart move...address your exposure now without giving up much.

[robb 70]

Team A: received Connor, 4.06; 2021 1st

Team B: for 1.07 & 2.04

Dynasty League, rookie draft in August

Who won??

[kutta 5,497]

2 minutes ago, robb said:

Team A: received Connor, 4.06; 2021 1st

Team B: for 1.07 & 2.04

Dynasty League, rookie draft in August

Who won??

I like who's there at 1.07 and 2.04 this year so I'd lean that side, but it's close.

You'll get a better response if you post this in the Dynasty Completed Trades thread.

[Zyphros 1,892]

Had an offer in my inbox this morning, I saw it pretty quickly, took a few hours to think it through and made my call.  Just wondering what the good people here would do.

The offer was,

Kamara and Kupp for my Jonathan Taylor and Miles Sanders

I'm really deep at RB (Sanders, Gurley, Taylor, Swift, Akers, Guice, Breida) and this is a full PPR league as well to help in your decision.  

[Milkman 2,348]

2 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

What rookie pick would you give up to get LF? Just curious. I am not overtly high on him even this year because I think Thompson sheds some of his PPR value. But I do agree he could be a buy low.

If you're buying low I'd try the 1.12 during the draft but he's worth the 1.06-1.07 to me. Nobody wants him but he's still a RB1. He could easily have double digit TDs this year. He wants to get paid so he's going to be super motivated and he played hard all year last year. 

[Boston 2,998]

15 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Had an offer in my inbox this morning, I saw it pretty quickly, took a few hours to think it through and made my call.  Just wondering what the good people here would do.

The offer was,

Kamara and Kupp for my Jonathan Taylor and Miles Sanders

I'm really deep at RB (Sanders, Gurley, Taylor, Swift, Akers, Guice, Breida) and this is a full PPR league as well to help in your decision.  

Who are your current WRs?

[kutta 5,497]

55 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Had an offer in my inbox this morning, I saw it pretty quickly, took a few hours to think it through and made my call.  Just wondering what the good people here would do.

The offer was,

Kamara and Kupp for my Jonathan Taylor and Miles Sanders

I'm really deep at RB (Sanders, Gurley, Taylor, Swift, Akers, Guice, Breida) and this is a full PPR league as well to help in your decision.  

I think I take the K's here.

Two guys that have shown they can put up great numbers vs. two guys who are about to prove it. If I have to make a choice, I'll take the guys that have done it.

[Zyphros 1,892]

38 minutes ago, Boston said:

Who are your current WRs?

Godwin, Sutton, AJB, Deebo, Unicorn, and Hurd.  Start 2.  

[Zyphros 1,892]

1 minute ago, kutta said:

I think I take the K's here.

Two guys that have shown they can put up great numbers vs. two guys who are about to prove it. If I have to make a choice, I'll take the guys that have done it.

My trouble with it was that Kamara doesn't have a long term contract, and Kupp is soon to be 27 on a team that seems to be heading in the wrong direction with how they've managed the cap and their roster.  That and I absolutely love me some Miles Sanders.  I have them ranked back to back to back in my dynasty rankings at 6-7-8 (Kamara, Sanders, Taylor), and Kupp in that same tier as well.  The questions lie with the 2 K's to me and I wasn't willing to take them.  

[Boston 2,998]

8 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Godwin, Sutton, AJB, Deebo, Unicorn, and Hurd.  Start 2.  

I would do the deal if it is a start 3 WR but the start 2 WR format means you won't be getting the same value out of Kupp...tough to pass on Kamara but due to the position set-up of your league I would have to.

[ffmail4me 776]

In the middle of a 12 team startup PPR dynasty draft. AJG is sitting there in the late 9th. Am I nuts to think about taking him? I mean I know he's 31, but I think Burrow could do wonders for him. Thoughts on where you'd take him in a PPR dynasty? Is late 9th too early? Would you take Preston Williams or a rookie like Claypool or Hamler over him? For this roster he'd be my #6 WR (keep in mind we can start 5 using flex spots) as I have Nuk, AJB, Sutton, Ridley, Diontae Johnson. If I didn't take him or one of those WRs I could take a RB like Damien Williams, Howard or Gibson...but I keep looking at AJG. Do I need to walk away from Green? 

 

 

 

[ZWK 1,969]

I'd take Claypool or Gibson, but Green might be next after them.

[Concept Coop 1,749]

I think Terry McLaurin is criminally undervalued. Give me a reality check, please. 
 

I see the holes in his profile - college production, breakout age, etc. - but think he’s already established a solid floor. I think he is about as good as Amari Cooper - today. Like Cooper he’s a nightmare to cover - he runs precise and explosive routes - and can win at all levels. Perhaps he doesn’t have the lateral agility that Cooper does, but he was better in traffic last season. 

I’m probably wrong. Tell me why.

[Boone22 338]

34 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I think Terry McLaurin is criminally undervalued. Give me a reality check, please. 
 

I see the holes in his profile - college production, breakout age, etc. - but think he’s already established a solid floor. I think he is about as good as Amari Cooper - today. Like Cooper he’s a nightmare to cover - he runs precise and explosive routes - and can win at all levels. Perhaps he doesn’t have the lateral agility that Cooper does, but he was better in traffic last season. 

I’m probably wrong. Tell me why.

I agree with you.  As an example.  A.J. Brown out scored McLaurin in my dynasty league by 3 points. 194 vs. 191.  But McLaurin missed 1 game while Brown missed ZERO.  And yet according to some sites (see below), Brown is ranked as WR11 in dynasty while McLaurin is all the way down at 25...why?

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dynasty-wr.php

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings-dynasty.php?viewpos=wr&howrecent=35

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Boone22

[barackdhouse 2,039]

37 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I think Terry McLaurin is criminally undervalued. Give me a reality check, please. 
 

I see the holes in his profile - college production, breakout age, etc. - but think he’s already established a solid floor. I think he is about as good as Amari Cooper - today. Like Cooper he’s a nightmare to cover - he runs precise and explosive routes - and can win at all levels. Perhaps he doesn’t have the lateral agility that Cooper does, but he was better in traffic last season. 

I’m probably wrong. Tell me why.

I think he is one of the next superstars in the league. The guy is really good. If people felt better about the QB situation, he would be valued higher. And it's a legit concern. I like don't love Haskins. I thought he showed improvement, which is probably the most important single thing a rookie QB can do.  If they can take another step as an offense I see McLaurin really pouring it on. I'm biased because I am in love, so I will also need someone to talk me down.

[Boston 2,998]

1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I think Terry McLaurin is criminally undervalued. Give me a reality check, please. 
 

I see the holes in his profile - college production, breakout age, etc. - but think he’s already established a solid floor. I think he is about as good as Amari Cooper - today. Like Cooper he’s a nightmare to cover - he runs precise and explosive routes - and can win at all levels. Perhaps he doesn’t have the lateral agility that Cooper does, but he was better in traffic last season. 

I’m probably wrong. Tell me why.

The issue is not with him...he looks very legit...the combo of his QB situation and playing for the Redskins makes people nervous (and can you really blame them?)...the fact he had the rookie season he did in this situation can not be understated...if he were on a more stable team with a better QB situation his value would be thru the roof...because he's not now is the time to buy if you can because if Rivera can get things settled down there you are probably gonna have a stud.

[FreeBaGeL 8,828]

1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I think Terry McLaurin is criminally undervalued. Give me a reality check, please. 
 

I see the holes in his profile - college production, breakout age, etc. - but think he’s already established a solid floor. I think he is about as good as Amari Cooper - today. Like Cooper he’s a nightmare to cover - he runs precise and explosive routes - and can win at all levels. Perhaps he doesn’t have the lateral agility that Cooper does, but he was better in traffic last season. 

I’m probably wrong. Tell me why.

No argument here.  Dude seems like an insane buy at his current value.

I get that people are scared of the situation, but the same can be said about AJB's situation and people can't buy him up fast enough.  Now don't get me wrong I am a locomotive in the AJB hype train as well, but I don't see any reason McClaurin should be valued this much less than him.

If he were a hotter name coming out he would be untouchable right now.  These are exactly the kind of guys I like to buy.  I would take him over Metcalf straight up and he costs half as much.

[JoeJoe88 448]

1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I think Terry McLaurin is criminally undervalued. Give me a reality check, please. 
 

I see the holes in his profile - college production, breakout age, etc. - but think he’s already established a solid floor. I think he is about as good as Amari Cooper - today. Like Cooper he’s a nightmare to cover - he runs precise and explosive routes - and can win at all levels. Perhaps he doesn’t have the lateral agility that Cooper does, but he was better in traffic last season. 

I’m probably wrong. Tell me why.

I thought he looked very good as well.

 

For me, it comes down to the QB.  I thought Haskins looked way out of his league last year.  Unless he makes some huge strides or they are able to get someone competent at the position, I think you'll continue to see Terry's value suppressed.