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33 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Looking for a later round RB gem in PPR dynasty startup draft (round 14). Who would you want between Scott, Hines, Justin Jackson, Edmonds, or Duke Johnson? 

He's the only one of those guys who looks like he might have long-term starter talent.

Drake is a good player, but also may not be ideally-suited for a full workload. There's a scenario where Edmonds is playable in 2020.

If you're looking long-term, he has two years remaining on his rookie deal and could hit the market as a 26 year old FA.

I don't see teams lining up to pay him tens of millions, but there could be a starting opportunity out there for him if he continues to thrive.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks.  These guys hit at what, a 20% rate?  15%?  It's a miserable number.  I'd be pretty surprised if

38 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He seems to believe Murray worth a lot more than I think he’s worth. The drop-off from Hopkins to Diggs just ain’t worth it. 

It’s pretty close for me if this is super flex. But you didn’t say that it is, so have to assume 1QB

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Good discussion, but I disagree with a lot here.

For starters I'm pretty sure you explicitly said multiple times this was a discussion about guys that got feature roles elsewhere, not guys whose value increased from changing teams.  I could be wrong on that.

Lynch "plays differently" so somehow that makes him immune to this list?  Weird stipulation.

Drake sustained value by changing teams?  In what world?  This guy was barely worth a 3rd round rookie pick prior to his move to Arizona.  I got him as a throw-in in FFPC and some people said that I shouldn't have even accepted him in the deal because the roster spot was more valuable.  His value has increased massively.

Again, big disagreement on the picture you're painting with Miller as well.  People only soured on him after he eventually started playing poorly in Houston.  Miller's startup ADP was 3.10 his last year in Miami, 2.9 after he signed with Houston.

Faulk went from really good in Indy to possibly the best fantasy RB in history in STL.

Bottom line there are plenty of guys that moved teams and got a featured role on their new team, and plenty that moved teams and whose production and/or value increased on their new team.  And that's before we consider that most of the other guys that moved teams were moved for talent or durability or on the field problems, none of which Hunt has shown.

My first post was that Hunt will only decrease in value.  That's where I jumped in.  I don't see the upside in investing in a guy that's stuck in a timeshare, and even though he's talented, younger RB's will just keep coming in to replace him in the dynasty landscape.  If I can cash out for a 1st I will gladly do it.  Better to cash out a year too soon rather than a year too late right?  

Then I mentioned in later posts that I couldn't think of guys that re-gained their workload/value to be feature guys after they moved on from a team, hence not gaining any value from what was their 1st round price tags (mostly).  As for Drake, I guess I'm just remembering wrong.  He was traded to the Cardinals and then starting blowing up no?  When did that value decrease as he was always electric and maintained value behind Ajayi in Miami?  On a sidenote I think the real strategy is to always buy players that are Adam Gase teams.  

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35 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

It’s pretty close for me if this is super flex. But you didn’t say that it is, so have to assume 1QB

It’s superflex. It is close. I just don’t wanna give up Hopkins to do it. 

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42 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

My first post was that Hunt will only decrease in value.  That's where I jumped in.  I don't see the upside in investing in a guy that's stuck in a timeshare, and even though he's talented, younger RB's will just keep coming in to replace him in the dynasty landscape.  If I can cash out for a 1st I will gladly do it.  Better to cash out a year too soon rather than a year too late right?  

Then I mentioned in later posts that I couldn't think of guys that re-gained their workload/value to be feature guys after they moved on from a team, hence not gaining any value from what was their 1st round price tags (mostly).  As for Drake, I guess I'm just remembering wrong.  He was traded to the Cardinals and then starting blowing up no?  When did that value decrease as he was always electric and maintained value behind Ajayi in Miami?  On a sidenote I think the real strategy is to always buy players that are Adam Gase teams.  

Yeah like I mentioned Drake was barely worth a 3rd round rookie pick at the time he was traded to Arizona.  He was actually on the waiver wire in a couple of my superflex FFPC leagues.  Obviously his value has increased a ton since that low.

Also like I mentioned, Miller's value jumped all the way up to a mid 2nd round startup pick as soon as he signed with Houston, and his workload went way up.

And the other guys we've talked about.  And again none of that is counting the notion that most of the time a guy changes teams or isn't offered a lead role it's because he hasn't played well enough to get that or can't handle a heavy workload.  Hunt is of course we already know he can handle that workload and it is bizarrely outlier conditions that have made him available, otherwise he'd probably be polishing his Super Bowl ring and admiring his pictures from his time at the pro bowl in Hawaii right now.

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12 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

You might not be saying that this time next year.  I believe Murray will blow up this year.

He has win your league upside. They tried to fix their line and added an elite WR. Look out......

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42 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

He's good for sure. I'm bullish on Jones too. They invested in the line and have a plethora of receiving options. He can run as well.

Yeah, I don’t see the drop off from Murray to Jones long term to be as great as Hopkins to Diggs, and somehow I’d also lose a 1st round pick in the deal. 

I traded for DJones. Gave up Sutton as part of a package. I believe he’s got the tools to develop & the weapons to help him get there. 

QBs DJ/Mahomes

WRs Hopkins, Mike Evans, ARob, Boyd, TyWilliams, KeeSean

I don’t see how that deal makes my team better. 

team B is also looking to move Elliott. I may counter with Elliott/Diggs for Hopkins/RB2-type/2022 1.xx & see if he bites. Still don’t love my WR corps but EZE would help stabilize a mediocre RB corps of Ingram, RoJo, Sony, Singletary, Duke, AP & literally every ATL back except the starter. lol

ETA just looked at that and still don’t like it. I paid a lot for Hopkins. Kinda wanna see how he does in AZ. Could be a monster year. 

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17 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah like I mentioned Drake was barely worth a 3rd round rookie pick at the time he was traded to Arizona.  He was actually on the waiver wire in a couple of my superflex FFPC leagues.  Obviously his value has increased a ton since that low.

Also like I mentioned, Miller's value jumped all the way up to a mid 2nd round startup pick as soon as he signed with Houston, and his workload went way up.

And the other guys we've talked about.  And again none of that is counting the notion that most of the time a guy changes teams or isn't offered a lead role it's because he hasn't played well enough to get that or can't handle a heavy workload.  Hunt is of course we already know he can handle that workload and it is bizarrely outlier conditions that have made him available, otherwise he'd probably be polishing his Super Bowl ring and admiring his pictures from his time at the pro bowl in Hawaii right now.

Ya this is a one-off situation not comparable really to anything we’ve seen. If you’ve spent the carrying costs you aren’t going to take a discount on the precipice of a payout

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14 hours ago, Spookytooth said:

Akers Lamb Jeudy.....who has the most value this time next year??

Don't know about this time next year after FA and the draft but I anticipate Akers value spiking considerably over the other two when real football is being played.

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On 5/17/2020 at 1:42 PM, menobrown said:

Don't know about this time next year after FA and the draft but I anticipate Akers value spiking considerably over the other two when real football is being played.

Curious your thoughts on this offer given your take on Akers.  Which side and by how much?  

Ekeler, Jeudy or Akers, Ridley.

I'll hang up and listen.

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7 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

What are people’s stance on K. Hunt? Are you buying? Selling?

He was sold for a 2021 second in my league recently. Pretty cheap, IMO.

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36 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

What are people’s stance on K. Hunt? Are you buying? Selling?

I would be buying. I own him in 1 league currently of 3.  1 league he is not for sale.  The other league I sent an offer of 2 2nds for him and was rejected with no counter.  I don't want to offer much more since eI am in rebuild currently.

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1 hour ago, Vandelay said:

Curious your thoughts on this offer given your take on Akers.  Which side and by how much?  

Ekeler, Jeudy or Akers, Ridley.

I'll hang up and listen.

That's actually pretty even to me, I'd legit have a hard time deciding but would lean Akers/Ridley but not an easy decision.

I do have Jeudy over Lamb, but I like them both and saying I thought Akers would jump them in value was not intended as a knock on them.  It's just as simple as WR's usually needing more time and I think people are underestimating the immediate situation that Akers is in as I don't see Henderson or Brown as much of a challenge. I feel more secure in Akers path to immediate and considerable playing time more then perhaps any other rookie RB, would put CEH and him in same company, and I think that's going to give Akers a huge chance to pop in value early.

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2 hours ago, Vandelay said:

Curious your thoughts on this offer given your take on Akers.  Which side and by how much?  

Ekeler, Jeudy or Akers, Ridley.

I'll hang up and listen.

Akers > Ekeler and Ridley > Jeudy, not even close to me

I'm a big believer in Akers so take that a little lightly.  He constantly was rising up my board the more I looked into him during this rookie process. 

Ridley vs Jeudy seems like an interesting debate for long term purposes but next year I don't think it's close at all in Ridley's favor.  

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59 minutes ago, menobrown said:

That's actually pretty even to me, I'd legit have a hard time deciding but would lean Akers/Ridley but not an easy decision.

I do have Jeudy over Lamb, but I like them both and saying I thought Akers would jump them in value was not intended as a knock on them.  It's just as simple as WR's usually needing more time and I think people are underestimating the immediate situation that Akers is in as I don't see Henderson or Brown as much of a challenge. I feel more secure in Akers path to immediate and considerable playing time more then perhaps any other rookie RB, would put CEH and him in same company, and I think that's going to give Akers a huge chance to pop in value early.

 

25 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Akers > Ekeler and Ridley > Jeudy, not even close to me

I'm a big believer in Akers so take that a little lightly.  He constantly was rising up my board the more I looked into him during this rookie process. 

Ridley vs Jeudy seems like an interesting debate for long term purposes but next year I don't think it's close at all in Ridley's favor.  

Thanks for the thoughts guys and I tend to agree.  Had a guy trying hard to get Akers from me today and this was the closest we came to an agreement.  Bottom line though, I agree with your take on immediate playing time and value pop and thats by far the most valuable piece of the package to me.  Overall it felt really lateral, but giving up the best shot at a home run.

I'm not sure where I stand on Akers as player, but it sure seems like he landed best for year 1 versus the other backs other than CHE and honestly I'm not so sure Akers doesn't outproduce him off the bat.  Seems pretty close.  And if you DO get that value spike, its not hard to ship him at that point for more than hes worth today.

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On 5/16/2020 at 7:55 PM, Spookytooth said:

Akers Lamb Jeudy.....who has the most value this time next year??

IMO there's a pretty good argument that all three are overvalued right now, but you're generally more likely to see instant impact at the RB position.

Akers was a very problematic college player, but all he has to do is beat out Darrell Henderson and not be awful as a rookie to build some buzz.

I don't know if the targets will really be there to make Lamb and Jeudy relevant this season.

I would not acquire any of these guys at current market value though.

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On 5/15/2020 at 11:21 PM, Milkman said:

The only time I do is when I'm super confident the player I'm after is going to pop and then I blow them away. 

For instance. I offered my Corey Coleman + 2nd for Tyreek Hill + a 3rd a couple years ago. Before Hill popped. I knew he was going to pop. 

I think we have to remember there were some panic sells of THill when he had some legal trouble and the Chiefs drafted Mecole Hardman. Quite a few people were saying Hardman was drafted to take Hill's place in the Chiefs' offense.

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3 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

I think we have to remember there were some panic sells of THill when he had some legal trouble and the Chiefs drafted Mecole Hardman. Quite a few people were saying Hardman was drafted to take Hill's place in the Chiefs' offense.

It was the year before that. 

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On 5/16/2020 at 4:46 PM, ffmail4me said:

Looking for a later round RB gem in PPR dynasty startup draft (round 14). Who would you want between Scott, Hines, Justin Jackson, Edmonds, or Duke Johnson? 

I would get Hines. I think Rivers will be looking to dump off passes to his RB and Hines will be the beneficiary. Edmonds would be my 2nd choice.

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On 5/16/2020 at 11:00 PM, Milkman said:

I'm going to say Lamb but I'm fading all three. 

Just curious...why fading Lamb? I am an odd duck but I think Lamb landed in the perfect situation (if they can keep Prescott there...not because he is great but he is young and good enough). Lamb will get the 2nd or 3rd best cover corner and have a nice and easy introduction to the NFL. I think he is the safest rookie bet this year. He may not be Julio but he is one of the more complete receiving prospects in some time. Above average route runner, strong hands, handles contested catches, very good after the catch, can play inside and out, has decent speed...not many holes. If he can improve marginally in a few of those he good become an outstanding receiver at the next level. I understand, it is not always easy to be patient (Cooper just resigned, Gallup still there). But things change fast (injuries, Gallup potentially gone next year, Cooper maybe gone it two years). A lot to like through my goggles...what are you seeing through yours?

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10 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Just curious...why fading Lamb? I am an odd duck but I think Lamb landed in the perfect situation (if they can keep Prescott there...not because he is great but he is young and good enough). Lamb will get the 2nd or 3rd best cover corner and have a nice and easy introduction to the NFL. I think he is the safest rookie bet this year. He may not be Julio but he is one of the more complete receiving prospects in some time. Above average route runner, strong hands, handles contested catches, very good after the catch, can play inside and out, has decent speed...not many holes. If he can improve marginally in a few of those he good become an outstanding receiver at the next level. I understand, it is not always easy to be patient (Cooper just resigned, Gallup still there). But things change fast (injuries, Gallup potentially gone next year, Cooper maybe gone it two years). A lot to like through my goggles...what are you seeing through yours?

No OTA's this year. I see Lamb as a depreciating asset all year. I can get him much cheaper next year. I want out of the first 2 rounds of this draft. 

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1 minute ago, King of the Jungle said:

3rd round is where it is at?

Well if I can trade earlier draft picks for established players? Yes. I'm a win now team though. Lamb is buried and getting no time with his QB this offseason. All rookies will struggle and this draft is super deep. I'll grab a couple established players that help me this year and fade the first 24 players off the board. Grab a WR I like just as much in the 3rd and sit on him for a couple years. 

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Just now, Milkman said:

Well if I can trade earlier draft picks for established players? Yes. I'm a win now team though. Lamb is buried and getting no time with his QB this offseason. All rookies will struggle and this draft is super deep. I'll grab a couple established players that help me this year and fade the first 24 players off the board. Grab a WR I like just as much in the 3rd and sit on him for a couple years. 

Where do I subscribe to get this 3rd round WR sleeper?

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I just can't find any redeeming qualities in Akers.  When I watch the highlights of him and Keshawn Vaughn if you took the jerseys away I couldn't tell the difference.  They're both...fine.  Decent size and decent hands, could excel in a great situation I guess.  Neither is a great tackle breaker, great lateral agility, nor great vision.  I guess Cam is faster.

Vaughn was more productive on a worse team (although both teams were awful) while playing against better defenses, and costs half as much.  I just don't see the appeal in Akers, personally.

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44 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Where do I subscribe to get this 3rd round WR sleeper?

Haha nowhere brother. I'm nobody. That's just how I see this season shaping up. Jarwin has a much better chance if being the third option on that team. Dak has played with him for years. Gallup too! Lamb is the 4th option on that team this entire year. He could easily get 50 targets this year. Is he going to be a hot commodity after a year like that?

 

Nkeal Harry had 24 targets last year. Anybody want to give up a 1st for him right now?

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I just can't find any redeeming qualities in Akers.  When I watch the highlights of him and Keshawn Vaughn if you took the jerseys away I couldn't tell the difference.  They're both...fine.  Decent size and decent hands, could excel in a great situation I guess.  Neither is a great tackle breaker, great lateral agility, nor great vision.  I guess Cam is faster.

Vaughn was more productive on a worse team (although both teams were awful) while playing against better defenses, and costs half as much.  I just don't see the appeal in Akers, personally.

Me neither honestly. I’m baffled by the hype for him - looks like an average, competent backup to me but you can’t argue with the draft capital I guess and he has name value. I like Henderson more but it’s clear the Rams don’t. Still, he’s well behind those other top backs as a prospect for me. 

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In a standard scoring dynasty 12 team, non-ppr league, what picks would it take to get the 1.6?

Would 1.9 and 2.1 do it for you? 

1.8 and 1.9?

The talent cutoff seems to be at 1.7, probably a premium to move into that range from the back end of the first round. 

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9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I just can't find any redeeming qualities in Akers.  When I watch the highlights of him and Keshawn Vaughn if you took the jerseys away I couldn't tell the difference.  They're both...fine.  Decent size and decent hands, could excel in a great situation I guess.  Neither is a great tackle breaker, great lateral agility, nor great vision.  I guess Cam is faster.

Vaughn was more productive on a worse team (although both teams were awful) while playing against better defenses, and costs half as much.  I just don't see the appeal in Akers, personally.

Ah, but thats the conundrum.  Think his landing spot is extremely good.  I know the smoke coming out right now says committee, but McVay has always favored a lead back approach.  Hes going to get every chance to be the guy.  I'm not sure about the player, but I'm thinking the hype is going to rise considerably as we get closer to the season.  On the other hand, the first half of the Rams schedule is not favorably stacked with run defenses.  They open with Dallas, Philly, Buffalo, Giants, Washington, SF, and Chicago.  The Giants are the only cupcake so he may have a difficult time out of the gate.

I ended up with him in two spots and am torn on how to treat him.  I'll probably look for an early sell high, just not sure there will be one once the season actually starts.  The best window may just be late August.

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5 hours ago, ex-ghost said:

In a standard scoring dynasty 12 team, non-ppr league, what picks would it take to get the 1.6?

Would 1.9 and 2.1 do it for you? 

1.8 and 1.9?

The talent cutoff seems to be at 1.7, probably a premium to move into that range from the back end of the first round. 

I'm in a 12 team TE premium, scaled PPR (1.5 for TE, 1 for WR, 0.5 for RB) league.  I made the following trade to get up to 1.07 to take Akers...

I gave up;   Knox, Dawson BUF TE; Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.11; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.03

I got;   Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.07; Year 2020 Draft Pick 3.06; Year 2020 Draft Pick 4.06

 

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12 team superflex

what type of value are we placing on Kupp?

He is easily my WR1 but my group is very poor as a whole. Kupp, Lockett, McLaurin would be my weekly starters. Looking to maybe move Kupp for a couple younger guys, or add to him to get a legit alpha

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17 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Just curious...why fading Lamb? I am an odd duck but I think Lamb landed in the perfect situation (if they can keep Prescott there...not because he is great but he is young and good enough). Lamb will get the 2nd or 3rd best cover corner and have a nice and easy introduction to the NFL. I think he is the safest rookie bet this year. He may not be Julio but he is one of the more complete receiving prospects in some time. Above average route runner, strong hands, handles contested catches, very good after the catch, can play inside and out, has decent speed...not many holes. If he can improve marginally in a few of those he good become an outstanding receiver at the next level. I understand, it is not always easy to be patient (Cooper just resigned, Gallup still there). But things change fast (injuries, Gallup potentially gone next year, Cooper maybe gone it two years). A lot to like through my goggles...what are you seeing through yours?

Gallup isn't gone next year, he's a $1.1M cap hit.  Cooper is far more likely to be gone next year.

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2 hours ago, Pwingles said:

12 team superflex

what type of value are we placing on Kupp?

He is easily my WR1 but my group is very poor as a whole. Kupp, Lockett, McLaurin would be my weekly starters. Looking to maybe move Kupp for a couple younger guys, or add to him to get a legit alpha

Kupp doesn’t seem to have much trade value. He finished the year as a top 5 WR, and was coming off an ACL, but he just doesn’t get the credit he deserves for that. 
He did seem to get his snaps reduced halfway through the season, but was able to catch a lot of TD’s to keep putting up number.

So, bottom line for me, he’s a hold. I think his owners value him more that trade partners do.

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10 minutes ago, kutta said:

Kupp doesn’t seem to have much trade value. He finished the year as a top 5 WR, and was coming off an ACL, but he just doesn’t get the credit he deserves for that. 
He did seem to get his snaps reduced halfway through the season, but was able to catch a lot of TD’s to keep putting up number.

So, bottom line for me, he’s a hold. I think his owners value him more that trade partners do.

Exactly. Final stats held up but he was saved by touchdowns and after tearing the league up in the first half the Ram's changed their offense and he was not a big part of it. I am going to see what I can get for him as I think it only gets worse this season. 

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3 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Exactly. Final stats held up but he was saved by touchdowns and after tearing the league up in the first half the Ram's changed their offense and he was not a big part of it. I am going to see what I can get for him as I think it only gets worse this season. 

Try to trade him for Higbee. That's where the offense turned too. Have the Higbee owner add a piece you like.....a buy low guy like Nkeal Harry or Darrell Henderson. 

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On the topic of Rams, the fact that they drafted one of the developmental move TE guys in the mid rounds this year pretty much locks in stone that their mindset is to let Everett hit FA after this season. That was probable after the Higbee extension but feels even moreso now that they've already gotten a backup plan in place.

Everett flashed big time and this league is desperate for impact at the TE position, as shown by the Hurst trade and other TE moves across the league. Now might be the time to buy if possible. You could wait and hope Higbee stays healthy but then there's always the possibility that McVay keeps running more 2TE sets and goes away from going 3-wide as often (the change that led to Kupp's dip in target share and snap count, that as someone else already mentioned was only camaflouged by his TD numbers down the stretch).

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