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I really don't know what is going to happen with Aaron Jones. 

I think the move to draft AJ Dillon as high as they did means they will want to use him next year. He looks more like a replacement for Williams than Jones to me, but I am pretty sure the Packers keep Williams. He will be cheaper for them to sign than Jones will be most likely.

I do agree with what FreeBaGel is saying about the salary cap. If Green Bay wants to keep Jones they will be able to find a way. Its just a matter of priorities. Green Bay looks set up to let a RB walk.

If they do let Jones walk then I think Green Bay will try to acquire another RB to replace his role of lightning in the offense. I don't think Williams or Dillon are that.

As far as the tour around the league goes for potential landing spots, I can see Aaron Jones being good in Miami. I think they have made enough progress that they are ready for a good RB now. If they went the free agent route that would allow them to keep using picks in other areas.

Maybe Jones stays and Dillon becomes a wasted pick is the other way I could see this going.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

I own Mahomes in one league and Murray in another, but could make it Mahomes in both with a small swap added to a larger deal I think. The other guy might even prefer Murray, making it an easy add. 
 

Am I just romanticizing owning the best real life QB in the league everywhere? Obviously Murray has given even more of an advantage in fantasy this year and is even younger, but something about Mahomes feels more stable. Murray is a stud but Mahomes feels like owning an inevitable HOFer whose value will depend less on healthy running legs over the years. Also owning Tyreek in both leagues, that feels like a set it and forget it for a long time. 
 

Am I crazy to think this way given Murray has been even better recently due to his running? I’m thinking I should use that to lock down the historically good passer of the two. Both are fun to watch of course, if that wasn’t the case it would be a minor consideration. 

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1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I own Mahomes in one league and Murray in another, but could make it Mahomes in both with a small swap added to a larger deal I think. The other guy might even prefer Murray, making it an easy add. 
 

Am I just romanticizing owning the best real life QB in the league everywhere? Obviously Murray has given even more of an advantage in fantasy this year and is even younger, but something about Mahomes feels more stable. Murray is a stud but Mahomes feels like owning an inevitable HOFer whose value will depend less on healthy running legs over the years. Also owning Tyreek in both leagues, that feels like a set it and forget it for a long time. 
 

Am I crazy to think this way given Murray has been even better recently due to his running? I’m thinking I should use that to lock down the historically good passer of the two. Both are fun to watch of course, if that wasn’t the case it would be a minor consideration. 

Murray year 2 = Lamar year 2.

Murray year 3 = Lamar year 3

I’d take Mahomes.

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1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I own Mahomes in one league and Murray in another, but could make it Mahomes in both with a small swap added to a larger deal I think. The other guy might even prefer Murray, making it an easy add. 
 

Am I just romanticizing owning the best real life QB in the league everywhere? Obviously Murray has given even more of an advantage in fantasy this year and is even younger, but something about Mahomes feels more stable. Murray is a stud but Mahomes feels like owning an inevitable HOFer whose value will depend less on healthy running legs over the years. Also owning Tyreek in both leagues, that feels like a set it and forget it for a long time. 
 

Am I crazy to think this way given Murray has been even better recently due to his running? I’m thinking I should use that to lock down the historically good passer of the two. Both are fun to watch of course, if that wasn’t the case it would be a minor consideration. 

Murray offers more short term upside because of his wheels, whereas Mahomes probably offers more longevity.

Murray is on pace to rush for 1000 yards and 18 TDs this year.  That's 200 fantasy points which is the equivalent of adding 52 passing touchdowns on top of his passing numbers.

So Kyler's current passing pace of 4200 yards and 30 TDs is like the equivalent of someone who doesn't run like Brady throwing for 4200 yards and 82 TDs.

Now granted Mahomes does run a little but just not enough to put much of a dent in it.  There's just not any way for a pocket passer to match the kind of raw fantasy points a guy like Murray can put up when playing at his upside.  That's why so many of us were SO high on Murray as a prospect.

Now granted, much like Mahomes 5000/50 year was likely the best of his career, this will likely end up being the best fantasy season of Kyler's career.  But still, he retains some major upside even though he's never going to rush for nearly this many TDs again, most likely.

To me owning Mahomes is like owning Peyton or Brees in their primes.  You consistently get 4500-5000 yards and 35-45 TDs which makes you a perennial top 5 QB but likely not often a difference making QB1 that blows away the competition. 

It's really a toss-up between the two, whether you prefer the shorter term major upside or longer term consistently near the top QB play.  I could definitely see a scenario where Kyler has more QB1 seasons but Mahomes has a lot more top 5 QB seasons.

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42 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Ugh yeah, I can’t agree with that. Kyler is a much better thrower than Lamar and he’s just as good if not better of a runner. 

Defenses will figure out Kyler like they did Lamar. Both will continue to be good, but both had their career fantasy years in year 2, IMO.

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5 minutes ago, kutta said:

Defenses will figure out Kyler like they did Lamar. Both will continue to be good, but both had their career fantasy years in year 2, IMO.

Kyler, for me, is showing much more touch and poise as a passer than Lamar. 

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7 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Kyler, for me, is showing much more touch and poise as a passer than Lamar. 

I’m not saying they are equal players. I’m just saying that I think they both have had their career years for fantasy in their second year. Kyler will come back to earth next year as teams get more and more tape on him.

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8 minutes ago, kutta said:

I’m not saying they are equal players. I’m just saying that I think they both have had their career years for fantasy in their second year. Kyler will come back to earth next year as teams get more and more tape on him.

To be fair, so did Mahomes.

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4 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

To be fair, so did Mahomes.

I’m not convinced that was his career year. He’s going to be great for years.

ETA: I don’t think Lamar and Kyler will be consistent top 5 FF QBs. I think Mahomes will be.

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4 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Am I crazy to think this way given Murray has been even better recently due to his running? I’m thinking I should use that to lock down the historically good passer of the two. Both are fun to watch of course, if that wasn’t the case it would be a minor consideration. 

You're not crazy, but I'd never do it. Let me explain. At the beginning of the year I had Lamar Jackson envy, and was thinking about obtaining him for Mahomes. That has since obviously cooled. Now I get no envy at all over Jackson and Murray. I think Mahomes in his prime is a bit like Peyton Manning was. He's thrown for enough touchdowns to be nearly set it and forget it. We saw what happened to Murray in Dallas and this past Thursday. He can get got. Not Mahomes. Mahomes is the floor that the fantasy-savvy crave. He's such a high floor that if you build even reasonably properly around him, you're golden. And that's what this forum does and why you dedicate your time to it. To fading the noise and amplifying the talent. I sat him one game for Newton, back when the fantasy guys all had Newton getting more points than Mahomes. Mahomes then went and dropped about fifty on some schlumps that couldn't hang with him. I'll never do that again, nor will I deliberately make him the centerpiece of a QB for QB deal, no matter the rushing stats. They're just not worth chasing, IMO.

I wouldn't do it. 

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2 hours ago, kutta said:

I’m not convinced that was his career year. He’s going to be great for years.

ETA: I don’t think Lamar and Kyler will be consistent top 5 FF QBs. I think Mahomes will be.

I remember having an almost identical conversation about Lamar and Mahomes last year.  Said my preference was Mahomes and that was based on passing numbers.  Too tough to rely on a rushing QB.  That being said, Murray does offer an interesting skill set.  But I still prefer Mahomes.

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25 minutes ago, rockaction said:

You're not crazy, but I'd never do it. Let me explain. At the beginning of the year I had Lamar Jackson envy, and was thinking about obtaining him for Mahomes. That has since obviously cooled. Now I get no envy at all over Jackson and Murray. I think Mahomes in his prime is a bit like Peyton Manning was. He's thrown for enough touchdowns to be nearly set it and forget it. We saw what happened to Murray in Dallas and this past Thursday. He can get got. Not Mahomes. Mahomes is the floor that the fantasy-savvy crave. He's such a high floor that if you build even reasonably properly around him, you're golden. And that's what this forum does and why you dedicate your time to it. To fading the noise and amplifying the talent. I sat him one game for Newton, back when the fantasy guys all had Newton getting more points than Mahomes. Mahomes then went and dropped about fifty on some schlumps that couldn't hang with him. I'll never do that again, nor will I deliberately make him the centerpiece of a QB for QB deal, no matter the rushing stats. They're just not worth chasing, IMO.

I wouldn't do it. 

I’m not disagreeing with the overall premise.  Mahomes seems “safer.” But let’s not pretend all QB’s don’t “get got” on occasion.  Murray’s game this week, one in which he injured his shoulder early on, was his worst game of the season.  That netted him 20.4 in my league.  Mahomes dropped 11.6 against the Broncos.  The other game you reference, against the Cowboys, saw Murray score 29.6. Mahomes has only eclipsed that point total in of 4 of his 9 games this year. And if we’re talking floor, well Mahomes has scored 22 or less in 4 of his 9 games.  Other than Murray’s 20.4 point game this week, he’s score more than 24.9 in ALL 9 of his other games.  

So while I agree that Mahomes is the safer long term QB, that’s purely assessing it from a pocket QB / non-fantasy football perspective because Murray’s rushing gives him a much higher fantasy floor in reality.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

You're not crazy, but I'd never do it. Let me explain. At the beginning of the year I had Lamar Jackson envy, and was thinking about obtaining him for Mahomes. That has since obviously cooled. Now I get no envy at all over Jackson and Murray. I think Mahomes in his prime is a bit like Peyton Manning was. He's thrown for enough touchdowns to be nearly set it and forget it. We saw what happened to Murray in Dallas and this past Thursday. He can get got. Not Mahomes. Mahomes is the floor that the fantasy-savvy crave. He's such a high floor that if you build even reasonably properly around him, you're golden.

Huh?

Murray scored 23 fantasy points on Thursday when he "got got".  Mahomes has scored fewer than 23 fantasy points in nearly half his starts this year (4 out of 9), and scored fewer than that in MORE than half his starts last year (8 of 14).

If 23 fantasy points is a bad floor where the QB got owned, then Mahomes has had a bad floor and gotten owned in 50% of his starts over the last two years.

That's the thing about running QBs, those points come quietly.  Kyler Murray getting "got" on Thursday was the equivalent fantasy points to a non running QB throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs, and Mahomes certainly doesn't throw for 300/3 or better every week.

ETA: I should have kept reading to the bottom of the thread, @SayWhat? beat me to it.

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Perhaps the get "got" is off, relatively speaking. Perhaps Mahomes has a wider long-term variance because of rushing yards. All I know is that in a 6 point passing TD league, which I was assuming, Murray is trailing Mahomes by a game average of a point. Perhaps Mahomes's wider swings in variance are a deterrent. I don't think so.

I'd rather have Mahomes.

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6 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I own Mahomes in one league and Murray in another, but could make it Mahomes in both with a small swap added to a larger deal I think. The other guy might even prefer Murray, making it an easy add. 
 

Am I just romanticizing owning the best real life QB in the league everywhere? Obviously Murray has given even more of an advantage in fantasy this year and is even younger, but something about Mahomes feels more stable. Murray is a stud but Mahomes feels like owning an inevitable HOFer whose value will depend less on healthy running legs over the years. Also owning Tyreek in both leagues, that feels like a set it and forget it for a long time. 
 

Am I crazy to think this way given Murray has been even better recently due to his running? I’m thinking I should use that to lock down the historically good passer of the two. Both are fun to watch of course, if that wasn’t the case it would be a minor consideration. 

The stability you are talking about with Mahomes is because of Andy Reid, and Mahomes is likely the best QB Reid has had to work with in his career.

I do feel more comfortable about that than I do Klingbury and Murray or Greg Roman and Lamar Jackson. Especially Greg Roman, look at Kaepernicks development or lack there of. Roman does seem good at designing a offense that takes advantage of a QBs running ability, but we haen't seen prolific passing come from his offense and I am not sure if we ever will. Its not really designed for that.

I think all 3 players are phenomenal but Andy Reid is the guy I want coaching my QB over just about anyone else.

I am more optimistic about Klingbury because his coaching career in the NFL is still so young. Roman has been around long enough that I think we know his offense has some limitations.

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Carson value? I really love him in redraft and feel he's value every year, but not sure what folks think of his value in dynasty. 
and, yes, I know he’s still hurt :) 

worth a late 1st or is that overpaying?

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On 11/21/2020 at 12:39 PM, ConnSKINS26 said:

I own Mahomes in one league and Murray in another, but could make it Mahomes in both with a small swap added to a larger deal I think. The other guy might even prefer Murray, making it an easy add. 
 

Am I just romanticizing owning the best real life QB in the league everywhere? Obviously Murray has given even more of an advantage in fantasy this year and is even younger, but something about Mahomes feels more stable. Murray is a stud but Mahomes feels like owning an inevitable HOFer whose value will depend less on healthy running legs over the years. Also owning Tyreek in both leagues, that feels like a set it and forget it for a long time. 
 

Am I crazy to think this way given Murray has been even better recently due to his running? I’m thinking I should use that to lock down the historically good passer of the two. Both are fun to watch of course, if that wasn’t the case it would be a minor consideration. 

Mahomes seems much safer to me as well.

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On 11/19/2020 at 9:36 PM, Helaire-ious said:

Does Antonio Brown have any dynasty PPR value yet? I would not mind cashing out

 

 

I've offered stuff such as Mims, two late seconds,  etc, etc, can't get anyone to give him to me at those costs but I don't blame them because I'd not give him up for that either regardless of team standing or need.

Not everyone ages the same, he looks outstanding to me and I'm more worried about off field issues then age at this point. Jerry Rice, who AB absolutely deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with at the very least in terms of raw statistical output, had his best few seasons age 32+. AB stay's out of trouble he's still got a few big time seasons left.

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26 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I've offered stuff such as Mims, two late seconds,  etc, etc, can't get anyone to give him to me at those costs but I don't blame them because I'd not give him up for that either regardless of team standing or need.

Not everyone ages the same, he looks outstanding to me and I'm more worried about off field issues then age at this point. Jerry Rice, who AB absolutely deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with at the very least in terms of raw statistical output, had his best few seasons age 32+. AB stay's out of trouble he's still got a few big time seasons left.

I offered AB for Mims and got turned down.

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23 minutes ago, Shrugs said:

I offered AB for Mims and got turned down.

Ok

 

ETA-set off to leave a longer response but had to run. What I was going to say is obviously each leagues owners will see variance from one league to another but also league format can make a big deal in looking at something like Mims vs AB, draft pick value, etc.. I mainly play FFPC and league I offered Mims for AB is FFPC, in that format with the short roster size it's hard to hang onto a guy like Mims, not impossible, but not easy and as of now I don't have Mims slated as my top 14. So in that kind of format giving him up for AB seemed like a no brainer. I'm first in standings and scoring in that league and AB owners is last in both, format aside I was surprised they did not want Mims for AB since they are not a year or two away but they don't.

League I offered two late seconds I'm also a contender and team that said no is not, for sure not a playoff team. The Mims team and this kind of team turning down young players and future picks with no immediate future may not be something I agree with but it's at least a good sign that to some people AB has continued to hold value. And I'd also add I've tried to get AB several times from these teams over the last year, but usually trying to offer a third when his value was in the toilet but these teams won't freaking budge.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I've offered stuff such as Mims, two late seconds,  etc, etc, can't get anyone to give him to me at those costs but I don't blame them because I'd not give him up for that either regardless of team standing or need.

Not everyone ages the same, he looks outstanding to me and I'm more worried about off field issues then age at this point. Jerry Rice, who AB absolutely deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with at the very least in terms of raw statistical output, had his best few seasons age 32+. AB stay's out of trouble he's still got a few big time seasons left.

You know Brown better than I do as a Steelers fan but Brown is basically do not roster for me because I can't count on him to not mess things up off field. I can't plan around him because I can't count on him.

What you are saying about Rice is somewhat true. He had his highest yardage total at age 33 when he had 122 receptions. He has another strong season at age 34. He missed almost all of his age 35 season with an injury. Rice does have several good seasons following this, but he doesn't always reach 1000 yards. There is definitely a decline in his performance that follows the age curve the same as other WRs. He is just able to extend his career with some good seasons beyond age 35 which most of them cannot do.

I think its a great selling point for Brown but he isn't Rice and I do not expect his career to last nearly as long as it did for the GOAT.

I can't count on Brown game to game much less thinking about him having that many more good seasons left in him.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I can't count on Brown game to game much less thinking about him having that many more good seasons left in him.

My response would be that he gave you 9 relatively problem free years and then hit a bad patch that covered about 9 months. 

The reason I continue to value AB is that when it comes to WR it's about upside. Tons of WDIS kind of WR's seemingly available all the time, the only real value I put on WR's are those that are difference makers or must start kind of players. AB is still that guy to me from a talent perspective.

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20 hours ago, joey said:

Carson value? I really love him in redraft and feel he's value every year, but not sure what folks think of his value in dynasty. 
and, yes, I know he’s still hurt :) 

worth a late 1st or is that overpaying?

[nudge]

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1 hour ago, joey said:

[nudge]

I didn't answer because I don't have a good answer for you. I'm sure calcs say yes, but I wouldn't give up a first for him. I'm looking to rebuild, though, so I'm not your best answer. Isn't he on the last year of his contract? 

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19 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I didn't answer because I don't have a good answer for you. I'm sure calcs say yes, but I wouldn't give up a first for him. I'm looking to rebuild, though, so I'm not your best answer. Isn't he on the last year of his contract? 

great point. looked it up and, yes, he's in his last year.

The dude who offered me Carson also has Penny on IR. Would want both in a trade.

He offered Carson for my Claypool, and then Conner for my 1st, which will be late.

So I imagine I could do Carson for either Claypool or my 1st. I love Claypool and drafted mad young depth in this year's rookie draft with Claypool, Pittman and Shenault (FFPC dynasty league) to pair with my T Hill and C Davis, so I'm feeling like I have depth at WR now after only having Hill and Hilton for a couple of years.  I'm torn on giving up on such a studly looking WR like Claypool, and might go full on win-now (I won it all in this league last year as well) with Carson for my first.  Thanks for your thoughts. This does seem like a tough one, but would be a little easier for me if Carson were actually healthy and playing his usual great game.

 

 

ETA: Ha. Nevermind. FFPC trade deadline just passed. All moot now. thanks for the reply anyway @rockaction

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47 minutes ago, joey said:

great point. looked it up and, yes, he's in his last year.

The dude who offered me Carson also has Penny on IR. Would want both in a trade.

He offered Carson for my Claypool, and then Conner for my 1st, which will be late.

So I imagine I could do Carson for either Claypool or my 1st. I love Claypool and drafted mad young depth in this year's rookie draft with Claypool, Pittman and Shenault (FFPC dynasty league) to pair with my T Hill and C Davis, so I'm feeling like I have depth at WR now after only having Hill and Hilton for a couple of years.  I'm torn on giving up on such a studly looking WR like Claypool, and might go full on win-now (I won it all in this league last year as well) with Carson for my first.  Thanks for your thoughts. This does seem like a tough one, but would be a little easier for me if Carson were actually healthy and playing his usual great game.

ETA: Ha. Nevermind. FFPC trade deadline just passed. All moot now. thanks for the reply anyway @rockaction

My own personal opinion is that Claypool was much greater than either Conner or Carson (I know Conner is on his last year in Pittsburgh) so you made out quite well in that respect. As far as for a late first, I'm sure it's said they're both worth that; I wouldn't pay it.

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On 10/8/2020 at 9:42 AM, Concept Coop said:

Who are you buying and selling?

I’m buying Henderson, Robinson, Lamb, Terry, and Gibson.

I’m selling Akers, Kelley, Higbee, and Ridley. 

I’m pretty happy with these lists.

Buys:

Henderson is a slight miss, but Akers hasn’t separated himself, which was my reasoning: Henderson was closer in value to Akers than their prices indicated. TBD. 

Dak’s injury slowed Lamb’s ascent, but his value hasn’t dipped at all. 

Robinson, Terry, and Gibson all enjoyed sizable gains. 

Sells:

I don’t count Ridley as a win, as his dip was mostly injury related. That said, that his value dipped and Lamb’s didn’t, for example, isn’t insignificant. Easy for me to say now, but I think he was always going to be leapfrogged by better profiles, even if we couldn’t predict exactly who they would be at the time.  4 of the 5 names I mentioned as replacement targets held up and are worth more today. 

I count Akers as a win, despite the injury. His value has dropped so much that I consider him a buy today. 

Kelley and Higbee had value at the time and are about worthless today.

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Buying: Akers, Diontae, Fant, Claypool, CEH, Lamar Jackson

Akers is worth a shot if he costs less than a 1st. I have a feeling Diontae will be a difficult buy, but his ADP and rankings are both too low. (Why do so many still value Juju over him?) I still believe in Fant’s talent. Claypool is expensive, but I’m confident he’ll cost a lot more soon. I might be a week late on CEH, but I’ll pay mid-late 2nd round startup value if I can still get him for that. I haven’t been able to land Jackson, but he’s worth the gamble at this point, as the upside is still league-winning.

Selling:

Juju, Moore, Jonathan Taylor, Jackobi Meyers.

I’m hoping the recent uptick in production will provide a sell window for both Juju and Moore. I think both are talented players, but if I can pay a bit to turn them into Lamb, Jefferson, Ridley, Terry (etc.), or get a piece in addition to Diontae or Claypool, I’m a seller. I’d add to Taylor for Swift, Dobbins, or CEH. That might be realistic after Sunday. Meyers is young and the production has been solid lately, but he doesn’t look the part of a longterm asset to me, on screen. I’d add to him for Fulgham or move him for any 2nd. 

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There have been a few mentions in this thread the past few months about Robert Tonyan, but nobody has really said anything about him. I find it hard to believe I couldn't get much for him as a trade away guy for my compete teams (that's the only place I own him). He should easily be considered top10 dynasty TE's. He's only 26, is an athletic freak, trains with Kittle and Hockenson in the offseason, and is becoming more and more trusted by Rogers and more involved. Why aren't people talking about him that much and what is his value? 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Buying: Akers, Diontae, Fant, Claypool, CEH, Lamar Jackson

Akers is worth a shot if he costs less than a 1st. I have a feeling Diontae will be a difficult buy, but his ADP and rankings are both too low. (Why do so many still value Juju over him?) I still believe in Fant’s talent. Claypool is expensive, but I’m confident he’ll cost a lot more soon. I might be a week late on CEH, but I’ll pay mid-late 2nd round startup value if I can still get him for that. I haven’t been able to land Jackson, but he’s worth the gamble at this point, as the upside is still league-winning.

Selling:

Juju, Moore, Jonathan Taylor, Jackobi Meyers.

I’m hoping the recent uptick in production will provide a sell window for both Juju and Moore. I think both are talented players, but if I can pay a bit to turn them into Lamb, Jefferson, Ridley, Terry (etc.), or get a piece in addition to Diontae or Claypool, I’m a seller. I’d add to Taylor for Swift, Dobbins, or CEH. That might be realistic after Sunday. Meyers is young and the production has been solid lately, but he doesn’t look the part of a longterm asset to me, on screen. I’d add to him for Fulgham or move him for any 2nd. 

Sold Moore after his game on Sunday in a package and got Chubb. Already had Hunt so locked up CLE RBs (for better or for worse), but @ NYG and @ NYJ weeks 15 and 16 

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

There have been a few mentions in this thread the past few months about Robert Tonyan, but nobody has really said anything about him. I find it hard to believe I couldn't get much for him as a trade away guy for my compete teams (that's the only place I own him). He should easily be considered top10 dynasty TE's. He's only 26, is an athletic freak, trains with Kittle and Hockenson in the offseason, and is becoming more and more trusted by Rogers and more involved. Why aren't people talking about him that much and what is his value? 

I think the problem is that saying "top 10" TE isn't saying much. Anyone not named Kittle or Kelce is pretty much unreliable and/or not that productive.

They're kind of like kickers now - just pick one, take what you can get from them (including the intermittent "spike" score) and worry about the rest of your roster.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I think the problem is that saying "top 10" TE isn't saying much. Anyone not named Kittle or Kelce is pretty much unreliable and/or not that productive.

They're kind of like kickers now - just pick one, take what you can get from them (including the intermittent "spike" score) and worry about the rest of your roster.

Except my issue with it is that he's undervalued compared to the Dallas Goedert's and Noah Fant's of the world. Both of who people view highly and will pay for as "the next TE" to join the Kittle/Kelce party but nobody talks about Tonyan. He's a throw in rather than a target which I don't get. I own him EVERYWHERE and nobody sniffs around, or if they do they want him for a 3rd? 

Before the season everyone was grabbing 2/3 of Fant/Hockenson/Jonnu/Gesicki/Irv Smith/Ian Thomas. So people have realized mid season by now that there is no TE advantage from TE3-TE16 who in FFPC the difference is a negligible 5 FPPG. I get it. But why is Tonyan or Hurst for example the outliers that aren't worth a damn and the other "TE1's" are worth something?

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Looking for wisdom of crowd here:  what is David Montgomery Trade Value worth?

1). Is he worth a late 2021 Rd 1

2). Is he worth a mid 2021 Rd 2 plus a throw in player

3). Or, is he not worth much at all in the open market?  Put another way, owners should hold an pray for better days   

 

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Goedert is in a very TE friendly system while GB isn’t considered the same at least to me. Who was the last great GB TE? Not saying Tonyan isn’t great but I think that plays into his valuation. And how much is Tonyan and not just the result of lack of capable receivers outside of Adams? What happens to Tonyan if GB suddenly drafts talented receivers?

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48 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Except my issue with it is that he's undervalued compared to the Dallas Goedert's and Noah Fant's of the world. Both of who people view highly and will pay for as "the next TE" to join the Kittle/Kelce party but nobody talks about Tonyan. He's a throw in rather than a target which I don't get. I own him EVERYWHERE and nobody sniffs around, or if they do they want him for a 3rd? 

Before the season everyone was grabbing 2/3 of Fant/Hockenson/Jonnu/Gesicki/Irv Smith/Ian Thomas. So people have realized mid season by now that there is no TE advantage from TE3-TE16 who in FFPC the difference is a negligible 5 FPPG. I get it. But why is Tonyan or Hurst for example the outliers that aren't worth a damn and the other "TE1's" are worth something?

If everyone is a TE1, no one is a TE1

-Confucius 

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48 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Except my issue with it is that he's undervalued compared to the Dallas Goedert's and Noah Fant's of the world. Both of who people view highly and will pay for as "the next TE" to join the Kittle/Kelce party but nobody talks about Tonyan. He's a throw in rather than a target which I don't get. I own him EVERYWHERE and nobody sniffs around, or if they do they want him for a 3rd? 

Before the season everyone was grabbing 2/3 of Fant/Hockenson/Jonnu/Gesicki/Irv Smith/Ian Thomas. So people have realized mid season by now that there is no TE advantage from TE3-TE16 who in FFPC the difference is a negligible 5 FPPG. I get it. But why is Tonyan or Hurst for example the outliers that aren't worth a damn and the other "TE1's" are worth something?

In my experience, neither of these are true.

And Tonyan spiked, but then disappeared for a few weeks and then showed out again this week. People aren't sure what to make of him.

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26 minutes ago, spacepimp said:

Looking for wisdom of crowd here:  what is David Montgomery Trade Value worth?

1). Is he worth a late 2021 Rd 1

2). Is he worth a mid 2021 Rd 2 plus a throw in player

3). Or, is he not worth much at all in the open market?  Put another way, owners should hold an pray for better days   

 

Clearly not 1st round value, even with the lesser star quality draft class than 2020.  I am of the opinion HOLD and hope he does something in the remaining games vs Det, Minn & Hou.  Maybe he can raise his value some, but the QB situation is hurting him too.  That has to be fixed before his value will go up to anything in Round 1. 

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Tonyan is the type of guy I’d be happy to have but would never pay much for unless I had a desperate need. He had one great game you probably didn’t start him for and otherwise has been just another one of those low volume week to week guys who sometimes catches a touchdown. Why pay up for him when you could try and catch the next version off the WW for free?

I’d add Waller and Hockenson to the big two as guys who’ve displayed enough likely longevity I’d consider paying something for em (and 5 ppg isn’t negligible IMO), but you could make an argument for any of the 10-11 guys in the tier below that, which means almost everybody has one (which is also why they’re worth more on your roster than in trade).

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Ruggs doesn’t make much of a dent in Higgins‘ value for me (with similar initial fantasy draft capital, one who’s shown a lot is much more valuable than one who’s shown little) but it’s possible the Higgins owner is a ruggs guy (I’m not and typically don’t like to invest in that archetype of wr).

likewise you’d have to add a lot to jeudy to pry lamb or Jefferson away from me. Might I be missing out on value if the slow starter winds up being just as good? Sure, but I like knowing I didn’t blow the pick what with most prospects being a crapshoot and all

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