Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Biabreakable]

7 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Except my issue with it is that he's undervalued compared to the Dallas Goedert's and Noah Fant's of the world. Both of who people view highly and will pay for as "the next TE" to join the Kittle/Kelce party but nobody talks about Tonyan. He's a throw in rather than a target which I don't get. I own him EVERYWHERE and nobody sniffs around, or if they do they want him for a 3rd? 

Before the season everyone was grabbing 2/3 of Fant/Hockenson/Jonnu/Gesicki/Irv Smith/Ian Thomas. So people have realized mid season by now that there is no TE advantage from TE3-TE16 who in FFPC the difference is a negligible 5 FPPG. I get it. But why is Tonyan or Hurst for example the outliers that aren't worth a damn and the other "TE1's" are worth something?

Good question.

I think Fant/Hock/Irv Smith/Gesicki have some draft capital in their favor along with youth as to why they are preferred to other possible options.

Tonyan is a UDFA who in some folks minds might just be a placeholder for Jace Sternberger who the Packers selected in the 3rd round 2019.

[Biabreakable]

7 hours ago, spacepimp said:

Looking for wisdom of crowd here:  what is David Montgomery Trade Value worth?

1). Is he worth a late 2021 Rd 1

2). Is he worth a mid 2021 Rd 2 plus a throw in player

3). Or, is he not worth much at all in the open market?  Put another way, owners should hold an pray for better days   

 

Its a bad time to sell him although I don't know if you will get a better opportunity later on. I think the Bears may add a RB next year.

So I guess you go for option two.

[Helaire-ious]

12 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Waller value go up lately or something? Guy just offered him to me in PPR for my 2021 1st & Engram.I think that's too high...even if I didn't have Goedert

Input?

[Concept Coop]

4 hours ago, kutta said:

Curious about Akers. I own him (got him as part of a trade when I traded away Saquon). I really want him to hit, and I really liked him early, but he just can't seem to get going. What do you see and what do you like?

I drafted him at his May ADP, so don’t put too much stock in my take. But I’m convinced that a player’s odds of ever breaking out are ~halved every year that he doesn’t breakout. Akers should be worth about half of what he was to start the season, IMO. If you account for the strength of the 2020 class, especially at RB, especially compared to 2021, he should still demand a late 1st in 2021 currency. That’s the strongest argument I have. Beyond that, he’s a plus athlete with day 2 draft capital in a plus situation, should he ever demand the role they had in mind when they drafted him. And Brown is an UFA.

[Biabreakable]

I think its interesting Coop that you had Akers as a sell in October with Henderson a buy and now Akers is a buy but Henderson is not a sell.

[battlestar]

42 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Good question.

I think Fant/Hock/Irv Smith/Gesicki have some draft capital in their favor along with youth as to why they are preferred to other possible options.

Tonyan is a UDFA who in some folks minds might just be a placeholder for Jace Sternberger who the Packers selected in the 3rd round 2019.

This has been in my head since pre-season and I wish I had ignored it.  (Even though part of me still sees the flashes and thinks Sternberger may still take that job)

18 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Waller value go up lately or something? Guy just offered him to me in PPR for my 2021 1st & Engram.I think that's too high...even if I didn't have Goedert

Input?

Seems high.  That said, in a 12 team PPR start 1 TE Waller just went for Kirk and a 2022 2nd.  And even that could seem high depending on your valuation of Kirk.  

Edited November 25, 2020 by battlestar

[Biabreakable]

2 minutes ago, battlestar said:

This has been in my head since pre-season and I wish I had ignored it.  (Even though part of me still sees the flashes and thinks Sternberger may still take that job)

Seems high.  In a 12 team PPR start 1 TE Waller just went for Kirk and a 2022 2nd.  And even that could seem high depending in your valuation of Kirk.

Yeah I would bet on Tonyan at this point but who knows? 

Personally I am hoping Rodgers leaves Green Bay and then we wont care who their TE is anymore, but thats likely wishful thinking.

[battlestar]

Just now, Biabreakable said:

Yeah I would bet on Tonyan at this point but who knows? 

Personally I am hoping Rodgers leaves Green Bay and then we wont care who their TE is anymore, but thats likely wishful thinking.

Me too, but I can't get over my own sour grapes for not holding him where I had him.  Yet. And who knows - Rodgers strikes me as one who would ultimately look out for number 1 and if he once again gets little offensive help this off-season (barring a Super Bowl) I could see him forcing his way out of town.  Sure it's pretty out there but stranger things have happened.

[Concept Coop]

15 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I think its interesting Coop that you had Akers as a sell in October with Henderson a buy and now Akers is a buy but Henderson is not a sell.

I haven’t tracked down the All-22, but he’s looked damn good at times—to me. If Akers is a buy, Henderson should probably be a sell, but I can’t do it. If you’re paying less than a 1st for each, I think they’re both good investments. 

[Biabreakable]

1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

I haven’t tracked down the All-22, but he’s looked damn good at times—to me. If Akers is a buy, Henderson should probably be a sell, but I can’t do it. If you’re paying less than a 1st for each, I think they’re both good investments. 

I have seen Henderson look good at times. I didn't watch the game last night. The last time I looked at it the Rams offensive line was doing very well, which somewhat surprised me as none of their RB have been able to take the lions share of the work and Brown has been getting the more premium looks at the goal line and as a receiver.

Will the Rams have a RB who is getting 60% or more of the touches in their offense or are they intentionally trying to keep this from happening?

Are any of these RB good enough to be that player? Based on you thinking Henderson and Akers are buys, I would guess you think both of them are good enough. 

If they aren't then they are at risk of losing playing time to someone who is I think, even if they intend to keep splitting opportunities.

[EthnicFury]

3 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Input?

I think he’s worth that in one specific scenario: you’re a contender who he’d provide a material advantage or plug a hole for and the pick is guaranteed to be late

Edited November 25, 2020 by EthnicFury

[Concept Coop]

12 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I have seen Henderson look good at times. I didn't watch the game last night. The last time I looked at it the Rams offensive line was doing very well, which somewhat surprised me as none of their RB have been able to take the lions share of the work and Brown has been getting the more premium looks at the goal line and as a receiver.

Will the Rams have a RB who is getting 60% or more of the touches in their offense or are they intentionally trying to keep this from happening?

Are any of these RB good enough to be that player? Based on you thinking Henderson and Akers are buys, I would guess you think both of them are good enough. 

If they aren't then they are at risk of losing playing time to someone who is I think, even if they intend to keep splitting opportunities.

I like the odds of them being good enough to be the guy, relative to the cost to acquire. Henderson has shown that ability, IMO, and the profile suggests that Akers has a good shot. I trust that the staff has a valid reason to lean on Brown as much as they have been, but I expect it to be Akers and Henderson next season. No idea what the split will look like, however.

[Smokin Okie]

Just wanted to let y’all know about a couple of offers I received in two different dynasty leagues. Both leagues are 12 team PPR full dynasty

 

Was offered Keenan Allen and Jacobi Meyers for CEH in one league. 
 

Was offered Diontae Johnson, Claypool and a 4th rd pick for Davante Adams. I declined both. 

[RushHour]

1 hour ago, Smokin Okie said:

Just wanted to let y’all know about a couple of offers I received in two different dynasty leagues. Both leagues are 12 team PPR full dynasty

 

Was offered Keenan Allen and Jacobi Meyers for CEH in one league. 
 

Was offered Diontae Johnson, Claypool and a 4th rd pick for Davante Adams. I declined both. 

First one is an easy decline. I'd have to think very hard about the other one though (I do value Claypool and Diontae more than consensus)

[Concept Coop]

10 minutes ago, RushHour said:

First one is an easy decline. I'd have to think very hard about the other one though (I do value Claypool and Diontae more than consensus)

I would have accepted the second one. Adams is turning 28 next month. That’s not exactly old, but his owners are running out of time if they’re looking for this kind of exit value. 

[FreeBaGeL]

On 11/24/2020 at 7:55 AM, Helaire-ious said:

Waller value go up lately or something? Guy just offered him to me in PPR for my 2021 1st & Engram.I think that's too high...even if I didn't have Goedert

Waller is one of basically 2 reliable TEs available in the entire NFL right now.

He offers the same PPG advantage over TE5 as DeAndre Hopkins offers over Will Fuller.

He offers the same PPG advantage over TE12 as DK Metcalf offers over Cole Beasley.

I don't think a 1st and a TE bust is an unreasonable asking price, personally.

[Biabreakable]

I was just listening to Cecil and Blooms recap of last week. They are waxing poetic about how great the Steelers are doing this year and Cecil says this is Bens last season with the Steelers, Bloom doesn't seem to disagree with this statement.

If Ben is gone the Steelers are not in a position to acquire a QB in the draft. What free agents might be available?

I just don't want to see too many eggs being put in the Steelers basket counting on Ben to be back and playing at a high level in 2021.

Maybe they are completely wrong about this or just having a moment. I don't know. They are bigger Steelers fans than I am.

[Smokin Okie]

41 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I would have accepted the second one. Adams is turning 28 next month. That’s not exactly old, but his owners are running out of time if they’re looking for this kind of exit value. 

That one was tempting. I’m 7-4 and fighting for the playoffs and just couldn’t give Adams up. 

[DropKick]

20 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I drafted him at his May ADP, so don’t put too much stock in my take. But I’m convinced that a player’s odds of ever breaking out are ~halved every year that he doesn’t breakout. Akers should be worth about half of what he was to start the season, IMO. If you account for the strength of the 2020 class, especially at RB, especially compared to 2021, he should still demand a late 1st in 2021 currency. That’s the strongest argument I have. Beyond that, he’s a plus athlete with day 2 draft capital in a plus situation, should he ever demand the role they had in mind when they drafted him. And Brown is an UFA.

Any adjustment to your thinking for the unusual circumstances that this year's rookies fell into?  Lack of everything?

[RushHour]

1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I would have accepted the second one. Adams is turning 28 next month. That’s not exactly old, but his owners are running out of time if they’re looking for this kind of exit value. 

Agreed. You wouldn't get that kind of value in most leagues I think.

[Biabreakable]

I agree with others that Waller is worth a 1st plus a TE prospect like Engram although I wouldn't call Engram a bust. He was better with Eli. I think Engram is a buy actually, he is pretty talented and no one seems to like him now.

Makes sense for a team not contending this season to do a deal like that. Makes sense for any competitive team to get the guy making a difference right now.

[Helaire-ious]

45 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I agree with others that Waller is worth a 1st plus a TE prospect like Engram although I wouldn't call Engram a bust. He was better with Eli. I think Engram is a buy actually, he is pretty talented and no one seems to like him now.

Makes sense for a team not contending this season to do a deal like that. Makes sense for any competitive team to get the guy making a difference right now.

If I didn't have Goedert, I may have done it. I am 7-4 & competitive this season. Should I really do this deal? Nothing too great coming out rookie wise mid to late 2021 pick? We start 2 flex so I can still start Waller w/Goedert, though. Maybe counter offering Golladay straight up for Waller? But then I am still stuck with Engram who would never start for me after that...

Edited November 26, 2020 by Helaire-ious

[Helaire-ious]

& now I was offered Miles Sanders for my AJ Brown & a 2021 2nd (Would be mid to late) PPR league

Even though RB is where I need depth (Start 2 RB + 2 flex & I have nothing worth a crap behind CMC, CEH & Robinson), I think I prefer AJB here.

Should I be taking this deal? I think I'd rather counter with offering Golladay straight up for Sanders...

Edited November 26, 2020 by Helaire-ious

[ffmail4me]

24 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

& now I was offered Miles Sanders for my AJ Brown & a 2021 2nd (Would be mid to late) PPR league

Even though RB is where I need depth (Start 2 RB + 2 flex & I have nothing worth a crap behind CMC, CEH & Robinson), I think I prefer AJB here.

Should I be taking this deal? I think I'd rather counter with offering Golladay straight up for Sanders...

Its probably "fair" value, but I think you could command more for Brown. I would have to get a 1st with Sanders to even think about it personally. 

[Helaire-ious]

15 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

If I didn't have Goedert, I may have done it. I am 7-4 & competitive this season. Should I really do this deal? Nothing too great coming out rookie wise mid to late 2021 pick? We start 2 flex so I can still start Waller w/Goedert, though. Maybe counter offering Golladay straight up for Waller? But then I am still stuck with Engram who would never start for me after that...

Trying to get Mixon w/Waller from him. Can't figure out what WR to add to my 2021 1st (mid to late) & Engram. Won't be AJ Brown, Allen or ARob. I'm not sure he'd say yes if it were a guy like Aiyuk or Antonio Brown, though. Maybe add Golladay, but I think I might be overpaying at that point?

I tried to also get Thielen from him, but he wanted waaaaay too much then (My J. Robinson, Engram, Golladay AND one of Allen or AJB) So I took Thielen out of after that...

[ghostguy123]

A little forward thinking, but with the current tight end landscape, what do you think Kelce's trade value will be in terms of draft picks in the offseason?  Think both regular and TE premium leagues.

31 now and heading into his final year of his contract (though I fully expect them to extend that at some point). 

As a contender what would you pay to get him?  What would it take to let him go whether you are a contender or not?

Edited November 26, 2020 by ghostguy123

[BearsFan4Life]

This happened today  ..

14 team.. no ppr

Fuller and Gaskin

for

Conner and Hollywood Brown

[IHEARTFF]

18 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

A little forward thinking, but with the current tight end landscape, what do you think Kelce's trade value will be in terms of draft picks in the offseason?  Think both regular and TE premium leagues.

31 now and heading into his final year of his contract (though I fully expect them to extend that at some point). 

As a contender what would you pay to get him?  What would it take to let him go whether you are a contender or not?

Good q. In one 1/2 ppr league, I’ve had his whole career.  I think I would consider selling him this offseason. Not sure what I would want. Probably a 1st + upside TE like Irv Smith or similar.  

[The Future Champs]

On 11/24/2020 at 8:45 AM, Zyphros said:

There have been a few mentions in this thread the past few months about Robert Tonyan, but nobody has really said anything about him. I find it hard to believe I couldn't get much for him as a trade away guy for my compete teams (that's the only place I own him). He should easily be considered top10 dynasty TE's. He's only 26, is an athletic freak, trains with Kittle and Hockenson in the offseason, and is becoming more and more trusted by Rogers and more involved. Why aren't people talking about him that much and what is his value? 

If you believe this then you have no choice but to sit on him and wait for his value to go up.

[joey]

1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

A little forward thinking, but with the current tight end landscape, what do you think Kelce's trade value will be in terms of draft picks in the offseason?  Think both regular and TE premium leagues.

31 now and heading into his final year of his contract (though I fully expect them to extend that at some point). 

As a contender what would you pay to get him?  What would it take to let him go whether you are a contender or not?

In my TE premium league, I’m holding and riding into the ground. He gives such an amazing weekly advantage over other teams that I’ll ride him into the sunset and deal with the ramifications later. (Granted, I also have Andrews and start them both in FFPC). But I’ll be grabbing a young TE like Trautman off waivers (FFPC doesn’t have deep benches and only keep 14 non-K/DST players) in the next week or 2 for dirt cheap for the off-season and we’ll see if he makes my keeper cut. 

Edited November 26, 2020 by joey

[Biabreakable]

If Kelce can be had for a 1st plus Irv Smith obviously that would be a better deal than a 1st and Engram for Waller.

I think this price for Waller is reasonable so Kelce should fetch more.

[ghostguy123]

1 hour ago, joey said:

In my TE premium league, I’m holding and riding into the ground. He gives such an amazing weekly advantage over other teams that I’ll ride him into the sunset and deal with the ramifications later. (Granted, I also have Andrews and start them both in FFPC). But I’ll be grabbing a young TE like Trautman off waivers (FFPC doesn’t have deep benches and only keep 14 non-K/DST players) in the next week or 2 for dirt cheap for the off-season and we’ll see if he makes my keeper cut. 

So what would you pay to get him?

[joey]

40 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

So what would you pay to get him?

I own him and don’t think I’d sell him for less than 2 high firsts but only if I were in a full rebuild. 

[ghostguy123]

28 minutes ago, joey said:

I own him and don’t think I’d sell him for less than 2 high firsts but only if I were in a full rebuild. 

It's very unlikely you would get that for him in any scenario for a variety of reasons.

Also, if that's what you are holding out for in a rebuild, that's a mistake.   Holding him next year kills at least 33% of his future value.  He isnt going to play at a high level forever.  

[joey]

2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

It's very unlikely you would get that for him in any scenario for a variety of reasons.

Also, if that's what you are holding out for in a rebuild, that's a mistake.   Holding him next year kills at least 33% of his future value.  He isnt going to play at a high level forever.  

Yeah, we’ll, like I said, I only own him on a win-now team, so my view of him is definitely biased and I will ride this horse to the glue factory. 

[menobrown]

8 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

final year of his contract (though I fully expect them to extend that at some point). 

As a contender what would you pay to get him?  What would it take to let him go whether you are a contender or not?

He signed an extension already, very team friendly.

I don't know what I'd pay to get him but every time I've traded for an older "win now" player it's been a bad deal so I'd be out. But someone in one of my leagues said last week a contending team of theirs dealt Barkley and a mid first for Kelce and Kupp.

[ghostguy123]

7 hours ago, menobrown said:

He signed an extension already, very team friendly.

I don't know what I'd pay to get him but every time I've traded for an older "win now" player it's been a bad deal so I'd be out. But someone in one of my leagues said last week a contending team of theirs dealt Barkley and a mid first for Kelce and Kupp.

And you wonder if that guy is planning to leave the league after this yea

I had Kelce on the block this past offseason with really no interest, at least not for anything close to two high 1sts.   More like one mid 1st.  I cant imagine that interest will increase with another season passed.

[Zyphros]

17 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

So what would you pay to get him?

I paid, 1.06, 1.07, 2021 1st and 2nd for Kelce/Woods in April. In my opinion, there's not a price that's too high for the best fantasy TE in the league in TE premium. Same is true in superflex if you transfer that philosophy. You want Mahomes? Pay up the wazoo for him. Kelce/Woods is a huge reason why I'm the #1 seed in that FFPC league going into the playoffs. 

By now, 1 year later basically, Kelce has gone down in value, but if you have the capital to do it and not cripple your team, something close doesn't seem outlandish to me. The premium you get from premium positions when it comes to scoring is such a huge advantage. 

[ghostguy123]

2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I paid, 1.06, 1.07, 2021 1st and 2nd for Kelce/Woods in April. In my opinion, there's not a price that's too high for the best fantasy TE in the league in TE premium. Same is true in superflex if you transfer that philosophy. You want Mahomes? Pay up the wazoo for him. Kelce/Woods is a huge reason why I'm the #1 seed in that FFPC league going into the playoffs. 

By now, 1 year later basically, Kelce has gone down in value, but if you have the capital to do it and not cripple your team, something close doesn't seem outlandish to me. The premium you get from premium positions when it comes to scoring is such a huge advantage. 

If I can get basically any two 1sts for him in the offseason I would likely take it.

I am the likely #1 seed heading into the playoffs, have Hockenson and Akins (yay) currently on the roster.  It would be a hit to my lineup for sure, but I am in a unique position where I can trade one or two aging vets and still probably be a good bet for a 1st round bye next year.   

[spacepimp]

David Montgomery Value—

which package below makes more sense for a team looking to make a run in 2022?

1).  Montgomery and 2021 Rd 4 for Damien Harris and 2021 Rd 2?

2).  Montgomery and 2021 Rd 4 for Bryan Edwards, Jakobi Myers and 2021 Rd 2?

 

[BearsFan4Life]

23 minutes ago, spacepimp said:

David Montgomery Value—

which package below makes more sense for a team looking to make a run in 2022?

1).  Montgomery and 2021 Rd 4 for Damien Harris and 2021 Rd 2?

2).  Montgomery and 2021 Rd 4 for Bryan Edwards, Jakobi Myers and 2021 Rd 2?

 

As a Bears fan, I would like to say keeping Montgomery, but he is not being used to his fullest potential in Chi.  I like package 2 better in Edwards and Myers. I don't like Rbs in NE, too many and never know how they are going to be used.

[BearsFan4Life]

Looking into your crystal ball for next year.... who would you rather grab now for next year ..

Gaskin

or

Akers

Have the opportunity to add either one to an offer to acquire, but not sure which one to add.

[The Captain]

Thoughts on Golladays value in PPR? I’m currently the #2 seed but my WR depth is terrible with Adams, Julio, Golladay and Deebo my only viable WRs. Not sure Julio is going to make it through the season and I could see the Lions shutting Golladay down with the season lost. Thinking about selling Kenny for someone who can help my playoff run. I’m know this is a sell low moment for Kenny so I’m not going to get equal value but this is likely my one shot at a run before I blow this team up. What type of WR from a non-contending team would you expect in return? 

[spacepimp]

8 minutes ago, BearsFan4Life said:

Looking into your crystal ball for next year.... who would you rather grab now for next year ..

Gaskin

or

Akers

Have the opportunity to add either one to an offer to acquire, but not sure which one to add.

I would lean towards Akers here as I think he will grow to become a focal point of Rams running game these next few years.   Gaskin while competent, is likely more of a placeholder in Miami.  

[kutta]

11 minutes ago, The Captain said:

Thoughts on Golladays value in PPR? I’m currently the #2 seed but my WR depth is terrible with Adams, Julio, Golladay and Deebo my only viable WRs. Not sure Julio is going to make it through the season and I could see the Lions shutting Golladay down with the season lost. Thinking about selling Kenny for someone who can help my playoff run. I’m know this is a sell low moment for Kenny so I’m not going to get equal value but this is likely my one shot at a run before I blow this team up. What type of WR from a non-contending team would you expect in return? 

A couple games into the season I gave Kirk and a 2021 first for Golladay. 
Just a data point for you.

[robb]

20 minutes ago, BearsFan4Life said:

Looking into your crystal ball for next year.... who would you rather grab now for next year ..

Gaskin

or

Akers

Have the opportunity to add either one to an offer to acquire, but not sure which one to add.

My preference is Akers, if only for the upside. I see Miami possibly drafting a RB next year.

[zamboni]

3 minutes ago, robb said:

My preference is Akers, if only for the upside. I see Miami possibly drafting a RB next year.

Agreed. I think Akers has much more long term upside. Seems like Gaskin/Ahmed are holding down the fort nicely, but Flores will want to surround Tua with more powerful weapons and they have the draft capital to do so. 

[Biabreakable]

On 11/27/2020 at 12:23 PM, BearsFan4Life said:

Looking into your crystal ball for next year.... who would you rather grab now for next year ..

Gaskin

or

Akers

Have the opportunity to add either one to an offer to acquire, but not sure which one to add.

Akers.

Gaskin has been in the league a long time already. This season has likely been his most relevant. It wont last.

[EthnicFury]

5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Akers.

Gaskin has been in the league a long time already. This season has likely been his most relevant. It wont last.

I’m not a believer, and also prefer Akers, but isn’t this Gaskin’s second year?

Edited November 29, 2020 by EthnicFury

[Biabreakable]

On 11/27/2020 at 12:28 PM, The Captain said:

Thoughts on Golladays value in PPR? I’m currently the #2 seed but my WR depth is terrible with Adams, Julio, Golladay and Deebo my only viable WRs. Not sure Julio is going to make it through the season and I could see the Lions shutting Golladay down with the season lost. Thinking about selling Kenny for someone who can help my playoff run. I’m know this is a sell low moment for Kenny so I’m not going to get equal value but this is likely my one shot at a run before I blow this team up. What type of WR from a non-contending team would you expect in return? 

Going into 2020 I thought Golladay was being over drafted.

That said he is the 34th overall player according to this ADP so worth taking a shot at WR ranked below him that you think can help you. 

Robert Woods? Tyler Boyd? I would take Jerry Juedy for him but not sure JJ owners would let him go.

Adam Thielen if you are just looking for a guy for this year.