Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


spider321

Recommended Posts

 

On 12/4/2020 at 11:07 AM, Buckna said:

Zeke is an extremely polarizing player right now, some are putting him out to pasture already and others see a screaming buy low due to Dallas being a dumpster fire this year. I would expect a massive bounce back next year However even with Dak back next year, McCarthy is going to limit Zeke’s upside.

Put me down for buy-low on Zeke / massive bounce back potential. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Was offered Chase Edmonds for Curtis Samuel.

Trade calculator says it’s a good deal for me. 

Gut says it ain’t.

Edmonds is a COP who’s clearly playing behind Drake at this point. I’m 8-4 and contending. I don’t think I gain lineup value with this deal. if I knew Edmonds would get a larger role I’d be all over it. But ~8 touches a game he’s seen with Drake in the lineup isn’t a lot. 
 

if I pull the trigger I’d be down to Hopkins/Evans/ARob (Cole/Snead) at WR with Fuller for 2021.

Anyone here like this deal for me? I’m on the fence. 

What's yer RB situation look like?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, The Future Champs said:

What's yer RB situation look like?

Carson/RoJo with a bunch of crap behind them. :shrug: 
 

Specifically: I have Hyde, AP, Duke Johnson, and every ATL RB not named Gurley.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Carson/RoJo with a bunch of crap behind them. :shrug: 

Ouch.   You could definitely use some help there.   That said, personally, Edmonds is the sort of player I avoid.   I just don't see much potential there.   Best (reasonable) case scenario is 8-10 carries a game, 4-6 targets, equaling an anemic flex starter.   Murray is going to personally take a lot of a COP RB's value for himself.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, The Future Champs said:

Ouch.   You could definitely use some help there.   That said, personally, Edmonds is the sort of player I avoid.   I just don't see much potential there.   Best (reasonable) case scenario is 8-10 carries a game, 4-6 targets, equaling an anemic flex starter.   Murray is going to personally take a lot of a COP RB's value for himself.

Yeah - that’s a concern I share. And based on AZ bringing in Drake to keep Chase in that COP role, I’m not convinced Chase will ever be handed the reins in that offense as a “feature” back. That said, Drake has his history with injuries. 

Samuel is a bit of a mystery since he may not be with CAR next year. There’s a chance he signs somewhere that’s a worse situation for him. just don’t know. 

It’s not a bad offer. Just not sure it’s one that makes sense for me at the moment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

Samuel is a bit of a mystery since he may not be with CAR next year. There’s a chance he signs somewhere that’s a worse situation for him. just don’t know. 

It’s not a bad offer. Just not sure it’s one that makes sense for me at the moment. 

I'd hold Samuel and hope he ends up in a better position, or try to trade him for an RB with upside for next year, like AJ Dillion.   I know that doesn't help your RB situation right now, but I don't think Edmonds is the answer.

Any thought to shopping Evans or ARob?  I've got them both in my main league, and while I think they both have at least 2-3 more prime years ahead, I'm seriously considering moving at least one of them, Evans in particular.   (Brady/Evans has sparked a fair amount of fanboy interest.)

 

That said, it's not a bad offer, and a good reply to the other owner is the minimum due.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, The Future Champs said:

I'd hold Samuel and hope he ends up in a better position, or try to trade him for an RB with upside for next year, like AJ Dillion.   I know that doesn't help your RB situation right now, but I don't think Edmonds is the answer.

Any thought to shopping Evans or ARob?  I've got them both in my main league, and while I think they both have at least 2-3 more prime years ahead, I'm seriously considering moving at least one of them, Evans in particular.   (Brady/Evans has sparked a fair amount of fanboy interest.)

 

That said, it's not a bad offer, and a good reply to the other owner is the minimum due.

I’ve been shopping Evans for a year+ with crickets in response, even from teams in contention. Seems silly to me considering how productive he’s been and how he plays through injury to varying effect.
 

Had the Bucs not upgraded to the oldest possible QB it may have helped his value, but for now he’s my ride or die. I’ll likely try again to move him in the offseason. 

Tepid interest in ARob as well, despite showing he’s QB-proof. People in my league seem reluctant to invest in the Bears offense.

Again, maybe that changes in the off-season. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BigAl21 said:

Rhule loved the dudes versatility and it shows in all the ways he’s getting him touches. I’d rather play Samuel in a flex spot than Edmonds right now and I like Samuels longer term outlook.

Yeah.   He probably changes teams, but I usually like rolling the dice on that situation.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/4/2020 at 11:12 AM, Concept Coop said:

7 QBs are outscoring last seasons QB2, all scoring a good deal more than 2019 Mahomes. That doesn’t include Burrow, Dak or Lamar, three top 10 dynasty options. The incoming QB class is both strong at the top and incredibly deep. Lawrence is probably a top 10 dynasty QB today, and 6 QBs have a shot at going in the 1st round of the NFL draft. One ran for 1,000 yards in a season, and more than one are likely to offer production on the ground.

I’m not sure what to do with this information. It feels odd to prioritize a position when two thirds of owners in 1x QB leagues have top options. On the other hand, those without a top option are likely to face a sizable deficit at the position each week. 

And does this production hold, or is this season an outlier, similar to 2011?

I wouldn't read too much into any outlier data from this particular year. To your original point it depends on my confidence level of the situations the non-Lawrence guys are drafted into.

I will be adding one in my league with Bridgewater, Brees, and Darnold (and Trubisky for this week) as my QB's. I have an extra pick in the top 20 or so and I've refused to move it for anything but a better qb. It hasn't happened, so I'm hoping to earn a bye today and have Bridgewater back for weeks 15 and 16. 

But I don't intend to add one in my league with Watson, Bridgewater, T Hill, Winston, and Darnold. Not any one reason but I already have a young franchise qb. I dont know if that's good depth or just depth, but the former is plausible. And I don't have an excess pick anyway. This class is good enough I'll consider it if that's how the draft falls, but I won't overtly try to get in position to get one like I am in league 1. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Was offered Chase Edmonds for Curtis Samuel.

Trade calculator says it’s a good deal for me. 

Gut says it ain’t.

Edmonds is a COP who’s clearly playing behind Drake at this point. I’m 8-4 and contending. I don’t think I gain lineup value with this deal. if I knew Edmonds would get a larger role I’d be all over it. But ~8 touches a game he’s seen with Drake in the lineup isn’t a lot. 
 

if I pull the trigger I’d be down to Hopkins/Evans/ARob (Cole/Snead) at WR with Fuller for 2021.

Anyone here like this deal for me? I’m on the fence. 

Only potential outcome i value Edmonds more is if Arizona let's Drake walk, doesn't add a meaningful free agent, and ignores rb until after the top 75 or so in the draft. That's plausible but its also a lot of if's. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Only potential outcome i value Edmonds more is if Arizona let's Drake walk, doesn't add a meaningful free agent, and ignores rb until after the top 75 or so in the draft. That's plausible but its also a lot of if's. 

I find all of that extremely unlikely given they could have done that this year & instead signed Drake. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that while they don’t mind filling in with Edmonds from time to time, they don’t see Edmonds as a long term feature back. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, RC94 said:

What do you consider a reasonable buy-low price for Elliott?  

Whatever the Elliott owner is willing to take. :shrug: 

It’s so hard to say - all depends on how much the owner values him & whether the owner believes in Zeke’s future. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Whatever the Elliott owner is willing to take. :shrug: 

It’s so hard to say - all depends on how much the owner values him & whether the owner believes in Zeke’s future. 

I'll rephrase because I don't know what the Elliott owner will want in any of my leagues.  What I meant was what would you (anyone here) give for Elliott and consider it a good buy-low offer and giving up more would start to no longer be a buy-low deal?  We can't predict what an owner will want, but I can set a price I'm willing to give and if it's not enough so be it and I move on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I'll rephrase because I don't know what the Elliott owner will want in any of my leagues.  What I meant was what would you (anyone here) give for Elliott and consider it a good buy-low offer and giving up more would start to no longer be a buy-low deal?  We can't predict what an owner will want, but I can set a price I'm willing to give and if it's not enough so be it and I move on.

If I'm buying low on Elliot I'm offering a WR2, like Cooper or Robinson.   

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I'll rephrase because I don't know what the Elliott owner will want in any of my leagues.  What I meant was what would you (anyone here) give for Elliott and consider it a good buy-low offer and giving up more would start to no longer be a buy-low deal?  We can't predict what an owner will want, but I can set a price I'm willing to give and if it's not enough so be it and I move on.

My answer doesn’t really change. It is highly situational. Depends a lot on whether the Elliot owner will be competitive next year regardless of whether Elliot bounces back or not, and also on whether the Elliot owner still has, or has lost faith Ezekiel Elliott.also probably depending on how deep The Elliot owners team is at running back.

at this point I would think you could offer a first round pick + A player that may fit the Elliot owners needs.

what are usually do in those situations is reach out directly to the owner and ask “are you interested in selling Elliott? float me an offer.”  Let them make the opening salvo, and you’ll get a much better idea of what you’ll have to pay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

My answer doesn’t really change. It is highly situational. Depends a lot on whether the Elliot owner will be competitive next year regardless of whether Elliot bounces back or not, and also on whether the Elliot owner still has, or has lost faith Ezekiel Elliott.also probably depending on how deep The Elliot owners team is at running back.

at this point I would think you could offer a first round pick + A player that may fit the Elliot owners needs.

what are usually do in those situations is reach out directly to the owner and ask “are you interested in selling Elliott? float me an offer.”  Let them make the opening salvo, and you’ll get a much better idea of what you’ll have to pay.

I get that it depends on the Elliott owner and his team, but I'm trying to keep this as a general dynasty value discussion and not a AC forum question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RC94 said:

I get that it depends on the Elliott owner and his team, but I'm trying to keep this as a general dynasty value discussion and not a AC forum question.

I get that, but the situation makes this extremely case by case dependent.

we’re talking about a healthy busy girl Elliot who is still in a “Bilo“ situation… Or not, depending on how the owner feels.

if I had Izzy Keel Elliott on my roster I would be a firm home and I would not even entertain offers that I considered less than the value Elliot in September. Some might say that’s insane or stubborn or whatever… But I believe that will be Ezekiel Elliott‘s value in 2021 and beyond. Went healthy, the Cowboys have one of the best offense of lions in the NFL. When healthy the Cowboys have a quarterback that opens things up for Ezekiel Elliott.what’s taking Eli value is that neither Jack Prescott nor the offense of line are healthy.

The only way to find out what his value is right now is to reach out to the Ezekiel Elliott honors and have them extend the initial offer.

I just don’t think there’s an easy answer for you. I understand what you’re looking for, but this is a pretty unique situation in my opinion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I get that it depends on the Elliott owner and his team, but I'm trying to keep this as a general dynasty value discussion and not a AC forum question.

I think the question is what he's worth to you

If the Elliott owner wants to jump ship but knows you want him, he'll ask for more than he thinks Zeke is worth...because he knows you like him more than he does.

If the Elliott owner still likes him, you're in the same boat - you'll pay a decent price for him.

I would guess you'll pay a first plus in order to get him.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/3/2020 at 8:10 PM, rockaction said:

At what point to we consider Antonio Gibson to have overtaken CEH and Jonathan Taylor in value? He's overall way ahead of both (twenty-five points over CEH in half PPR) on the year and just seems to be trending upward. What exactly is his value?

I'd put Gibson somewhere between Josh Jacobs and De'andre Swift. On a bad team he's already putting it on the field despite being considered something of a project, at least that's what I thought of him. He should continue to improve as a player of football combining with his natural ability. Future top 5 rb is not out of the question, or top 1 for real.

CEH and JT were overvalued to begin with, the football games have only made it worse. Gibson is worth more. 

Edited by cloppbeast
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I'll rephrase because I don't know what the Elliott owner will want in any of my leagues.  What I meant was what would you (anyone here) give for Elliott and consider it a good buy-low offer and giving up more would start to no longer be a buy-low deal?  We can't predict what an owner will want, but I can set a price I'm willing to give and if it's not enough so be it and I move on.

Zeke owner, here. I'm not making or considering any offers til May. I don't expect his value to recover before then, but I expect it to recover about then.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Zeke owner, here. I'm not making or considering any offers til May. I don't expect his value to recover before then, but I expect it to recover about then.

I own Zeke as well and I expect Zeke to bounce back next year, so I am not selling low either.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I countered in the Edmonds offer with Fuller for Zeke to sniff out value.

Zeke owner countered & wants RoJo + Fuller for Zeke and I’m considering it. 

My fear is that while it gets me a potential premium RB for next year, RoJo has just been much better than Zeke this year, and being the 1-seed I’m not seeing Zeke as an immediate upgrade to RoJo. 

Man this one’s rough. But per the above, it does help answer “what’s zeke’s value” - in my case it’s RoJo + a suspended Fuller. :shrug: 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I countered in the Edmonds offer with Fuller for Zeke to sniff out value.

Zeke owner countered & wants RoJo + Fuller for Zeke and I’m considering it. 

My fear is that while it gets me a potential premium RB for next year, RoJo has just been much better than Zeke this year, and being the 1-seed I’m not seeing Zeke as an immediate upgrade to RoJo. 

Man this one’s rough. But per the above, it does help answer “what’s zeke’s value” - in my case it’s RoJo + a suspended Fuller. :shrug: 

Smash accept for me

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I own Zeke as well and I expect Zeke to bounce back next year, so I am not selling low either.  

Zeke owner here, and I would be happy to unload him, but only getting low end RB2 offers...I'll go down with the ship if thats all I can get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Definitely thinking about it. I also divest from Bucs, since I’ve got RoJo, Gronk & Evans. 

Dammit. Re-checked and he wants to do Beasley+Zeke for RoJo, ARob & Fuller. 

Too much. As much as I’d like to have Zeke next year this weakens me too much this year. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, beef said:

I'd take Zeke over allen robinson, Ron jones and fuller.  

I probably might too in a vacuum.

in context it would tank my 2020 playoff run. Zeke is highly unlikely to outscore Jones & ARob over the next few weeks. 

as the 1-seed and slightly favorited to win it all this year ($1000+ to 1st) I’m hesitant to do that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I probably might too in a vacuum.

in context it would tank my 2020 playoff run. Zeke is highly unlikely to outscore Jones & ARob over the next few weeks. 

as the 1-seed and slightly favorited to win it all this year ($1000+ to 1st) I’m hesitant to do that. 

In this case I would be too.  I'd want to win now

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Even RoJo+Fuller feels like it hurts my chances since Jones has been better than Zeke. 

How about a change of plans: look for an RB who should produce down the stretch, but has little potential long range value, and is currently rostered by a team that's going to miss the playoffs.   Gaskin, Drake, Hines, Gallman, Bernard...   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, The Future Champs said:

How about a change of plans: look for an RB who should produce down the stretch, but has little potential long range value, and is currently rostered by a team that's going to miss the playoffs.   Gaskin, Drake, Hines, Gallman, Bernard...   

Yeah - just saw a shot at Zeke since he was coming at me with an offer this AM.

unfortunately we have 2 teams at 8-4, 3 at 7-5 and 4 at 6-6, so 9/12 are contenting. Of the 3 remaining, the only one who could deal a RB is team Zeke/Edmonds. 

I may revisit in a couple weeks to see if I can get something done before the playoffs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/26/2020 at 4:21 PM, joey said:

In my TE premium league, I’m holding and riding into the ground. He gives such an amazing weekly advantage over other teams that I’ll ride him into the sunset and deal with the ramifications later. (Granted, I also have Andrews and start them both in FFPC). But I’ll be grabbing a young TE like Trautman off waivers (FFPC doesn’t have deep benches and only keep 14 non-K/DST players) in the next week or 2 for dirt cheap for the off-season and we’ll see if he makes my keeper cut. 

Now is the time to grab Trautman...Waldman did some film study on this kid and he’s going to be a good one 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

How many current NFL QBs would you take over Trevor Lawrence in Dynasty leagues?

Mahomes, Murray, Watson, Herbert, and Jackson for me. And maybe Allen in 4 pt passing leagues. I'd take him over Wilson, Dak, and Burrow in all formats.

Mostly agree...unless he is a JET.  Then they will ruin another one IMHO

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

How many current NFL QBs would you take over Trevor Lawrence in Dynasty leagues?

Mahomes, Murray, Watson, Herbert, and Jackson for me. And maybe Allen in 4 pt passing leagues. I'd take him over Wilson, Dak, and Burrow in all formats.

I think I'd only take Mahomes and Watson ahead of him. Really.

Murray's play style makes him an injury risk.

Jackson just might not ever develop as a passer.

I like Herbert and Burrow.

But Lawrence is just flat out awesome.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

How many current NFL QBs would you take over Trevor Lawrence in Dynasty leagues?

There's a lot imo. Rookie qbs are such a crapshoot, even #1 overall. When quarterbacks play into their late 30s, I'm not seeing the advantage in having an early 20s guy. Are we looking 10+ years into the future now in dynasty? 

Edited by cloppbeast
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I think I'd only take Mahomes and Watson ahead of him. Really.

Murray's play style makes him an injury risk.

Jackson just might not ever develop as a passer.

I like Herbert and Burrow.

But Lawrence is just flat out awesome.

How high of a pick would you be comfortable using if you needed QB help? 1 qb league.

Edited by Mark Football
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

How high of a pick would you be comfortable using if you needed QB help? 1 qb league.

If this were the case I’d wait until Lawrence was off the board and then look to acquire Fields for cheaper. See what your league mates have at QB once Trevor is off the board and move up only before you feel he might get taken. This is riskier but I think the difference between the two in terms of fantasy assets might be a lot closer in value than where they are drafted in rookie drafts

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

There's a lot imo. Rookie qbs are such a crapshoot, even #1 overall. When quarterbacks play into their late 30s, I'm not seeing the advantage in having an early 20s guy. Are we looking 10+ years into the future now in dynasty? 

I wouldn't say I'm looking that far out, but I don't put a cap on the value I place on youth. I'll take a 22 YO QB over a 25 YO QB, all else equal, for example. (Not that I'd prioritize moving a 25 or even 30 YO QB, of course.) But if Lawrence lives up to the hype he'll be a high-end performer in a year or two.

And I can't think of a QB prospect of this caliber who went on to bust. We're talking Luck/Manning/Elway level, from what I've read.

Edited by Concept Coop
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I wouldn't say I'm looking that far out, but I don't put a cap on the value I place on youth. I'll take a 22 YO QB over a 25 YO QB, all else equal, for example. (Not that I'd prioritize moving a 25 or even 30 YO QB, of course.) But if Lawrence lives up to the hype he'll be a high-end performer in a year or two.

I come at this from the perspective of expected value based on historical data. Like I said, being the #1 drafted pick is a crapshoot. 

You mention the hype, an entity which can not be quantified, or hasn't been that I know about. Just based off memory, I don't recall players regarded higher in FF than warranted to have a better track record. 

Edited by cloppbeast
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, cloppbeast said:

I come at this from the perspective of expected value based on historical data. Like I said, being the #1 drafted pick is a crapshoot. 

You mention the hype, an entity which can not be quantified, or hasn't been that I know about. Just based off memory I don't recall players regarded higher in FF than warranted to have a better track record. 

I was referring to his general NFL hype, not fantasy. Scouts, coaches, pundits, analytics, etc. Based on that I'm comfortable manually adjusting the sample. That's a bad practice in general, of course, but it feels more accurate than any model lumping him in with Bradford, Goff, Baker, etc. - to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
  • Create New...