Zyphros
Footballguy
That's about the cap I'd put on it too, maybe 25-30 without really thinking it through. I'd sell asap after that stellar week1
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not to speak for Hank, but that's not really relevant right now since no one will be drafting a start up for several months - we have time to see where he fits in - but there are still 15-20 guys that could be "no-brainer" targets.
Of course it's not relevant, but I'm just trying to make him put that in perspective. Of course there are 15-20 no brainers, but that's not what he said. He said there are only 15-20 guys. If I had Hunt and saw that, I'd be sending out a lot of trade offers right now.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Who would you target outside of the top 20 guys right now?
Obviously Hunt will not keep up this pace but he's a young talented (I believed this as a prospect not basing it off of last night) feature back and there's no reason to beleive he won't hold the job down in future years. I'd be a little hesitant to run out and move him without seeing how the season pans out. Plus of course it seems like he'll be quite useful for this season.
I get the "sell high"'attitude - but it's not like that never backfires. Of course there would be offers that I wouldn't hesitate to snatch up - but do you move him for say Sammy Watkins, TY Hilton or Gronkowski right now? Because I saw all of those guys go in Round 2 of a start up this past summer.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It is actually what you said if you think about it. If there are only 15-20 players you'd trade Hunt for, then you value him between the 16th-21st overall player.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
But he's not "my guy" and on draft day there are other guys I would rather populate my roster with.
Trades are only partly about how I value them, the other part is how they value the guy. I said 15-20 players because I know I can get that and I would hold out for someone to come offering. If I don't get it I will hold him and wait for it. Before last night's game I was going through trade talks with someone that wanted Hunt and Pryor for Dalvin Cook. To me Cook is worth that, but I think I can get the guy down so I didn't do it. Now I might be able to get Cook straight up. On draft day you don't have that luxury, especially with long swings.
Trades are only partly about how I value them, the other part is how they value the guy. I said 15-20 players because I know I can get that and I would hold out for someone to come offering. If I don't get it I will hold him and wait for it. Before last night's game I was going through trade talks with someone that wanted Hunt and Pryor for Dalvin Cook. To me Cook is worth that, but I think I can get the guy down so I didn't do it. Now I might be able to get Cook straight up. On draft day you don't have that luxury, especially with long swings.
If you KNOW you can get a top 15-20 player, then please post back when you do. I'm genuinely curious if people would really give up a top 15-20 asset for him. Color me skeptical, but every league has a donkey...
And FWIW, I don't consider Cook a top 15-20 player.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Ok, you called my bluff. I don't do explicit 1,2,3,4 dynasty rankings.. but if I did, I can't imagine Cook would be in the top 20!
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm ok with an off the cuff list. I'm actually interested in the discussion of who you would consider too much to trade for hunt right now. Lets start with the rookies - is he the consensus 1.1 if we do a rookie draft right now? What about Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, etc? Which receivers would you click reject on in a 1:1 trade?Ok, you called my bluff. I don't do explicit 1,2,3,4 dynasty rankings.. but if I did, I can't imagine Cook would be in the top 20!
I'm pretty contrarian so I would catch too much group think flack if I actually started listing off my favorites and giving my takes on everyone else's favorite (for instance, I don't like Gordon at all - not a popular take after last year's volume driven stats).
And maybe I'm too high on Ware (don't own him anywhere, FWIW) but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he came back and made this a RBBC again in 2018. He'll only be 26 on a $2M contract and he's good at the goal line.
Then again, I've always been hesitant to place much stock in a single game, so this game didn't move my needle that much.
ETA: Forgot to say, no, I would not draft him at 1.01 unless I felt I was a RB away from a championship.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I asked you above who outside of the top 20 would you consider moving Hunt for after our initial exchange (where you questioned Hank's statement). Would you at least be willing to do that? I'm not trying to call you out, I just want to see if perhaps you come to realize it's a little more tricky than you are making it out to be.
As far as Ware, I think he's a good back as well, but Hunt has a chance to put him in the rearview mirror to stay - it's a long season though and I agree one game doesn't tell the full story.
Pwingles
Footballguy
according to DLFs top 200 list, there are a couple guys in their top 20 that depending on roster construction, I might swap him for, but it would still be a gamble
sammy, TY, baldwin, mostly due to situation and or age
Hunts potential workload is intriguing, I feel like in the future Hill, and kelce will compliment Hunt and we could see a lot of solid individual weeks depending on opposing game plans for each of them, but for 2/3 to be relevant weekly is going to be tough will Alex Smith and the lack of other WR threats
sammy, TY, baldwin, mostly due to situation and or age
Hunts potential workload is intriguing, I feel like in the future Hill, and kelce will compliment Hunt and we could see a lot of solid individual weeks depending on opposing game plans for each of them, but for 2/3 to be relevant weekly is going to be tough will Alex Smith and the lack of other WR threats
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
OK lots of vague "top xxxx in here". I'm going to try and put some names to paper. Some really tough calls here. It's a tough balance between trying not to overreact vs. giving up a 22 year old feature back in a good situation who passes the eye test. I am probably overrating him but my tendencies have always been against the "cautious" play.
Here are the players drafted in the first 3 rounds of my (TE premium) dynasty startup this offseason. I'm approaching this as "if someone offered me this player for Hunt straight up, would I take it?".
Green = I would accept the offer
Red = I would not accept
Black = Toss-up
Also, I'm looking at this under the notion that I would have to keep the player and not be able to flip them. For instance Melvin Gordon has good trade value but I am not high on his long term prospects personally, so I'm operating under the assumption I would have to keep Gordon and couldn't just flip him for someone else on the list.
Here are the players drafted in the first 3 rounds of my (TE premium) dynasty startup this offseason. I'm approaching this as "if someone offered me this player for Hunt straight up, would I take it?".
Green = I would accept the offer
Red = I would not accept
Black = Toss-up
Also, I'm looking at this under the notion that I would have to keep the player and not be able to flip them. For instance Melvin Gordon has good trade value but I am not high on his long term prospects personally, so I'm operating under the assumption I would have to keep Gordon and couldn't just flip him for someone else on the list.
- Ezekiel Elliot
- David Johnson
- Mike Evans
- Odell Beckham
- Le'Veon Bell
- Antonio Brown
- Julio Jones
- Leonard Fournette
- Amari Cooper
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Michael Thomas
- Jordan Howard
- Melvin Gordon
- Travis Kelce
- Rob Gronkowski
- Corey Davis
- AJ Green
- Todd Gurley
- Devonta Freeman
- TY Hilton
- Brandin Cooks
- Allen Robinson
- Christian McCaffrey
- Sammy Watkins
- Joe Mixon
- Jarvis Landry
- Jordan Reed
- Keenan Allen
- Hunter Henry
- Dalvin Cook
- Dez Bryant
- Jay Ajayi
- Demaryius Thomas
- Alshon Jeffery
- Andrew Luck
- DaVante Adams
Whoops, sorry, didn't mean to ignore you there. My bad.
I'm not very invested in this topic, so I'm going to be kind of lazy - I'm looking at the FBG overall dynasty rankings. There are a few guys I don't really like in the top 20 that I'd probably consider trading away for Hunt if I somehow owned them: Hopkins, Freeman, Gordon, and maybe Watkins (really don't know what to make of him). I would not trade Gronk, CMC, Keenan, Luck, ARob, Rodgers, Henry, or Mixon to start. I'm sure there are more.
ETA: those first 4 are in the top 20. The next 8 are guys outside the top 20.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
This list feels about right to me, give or take a few names. I don't own Hunt anywhere (and don't recall watching a single Toledo game in the last few years). I'm not in a rush to make these offers to the Hunt owners in my league, but if I owned him, I'd need a lot to move him. I'm not ready to value him as the next Arian Foster, but I'm not ruling it out either. The kid looked really damn good.
Spike
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with (hopefully) selling high.Bumping this chestnut of a thread with Hunt's killer performance tonight.
Im in one league where I have Bell, Gordon, Hunt and McCaffrey (and Terrance West, baby")
after tonight's explosion by Hunt, tempted to throw some offers out for the likes of Mike Evans, for example (non-PPR league, btw)
thoughts on selling high high on Hunt for a proven stud WR?
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
If I had TE depth, I'd make that deal even in that format. With the knowledge that he'll probably have a couple random multi-TD games that make you regret it...but you'll be better off in the long run.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thoughts on Kizer and Watson?
I'm warming on Kizer and am pretty confident that Watson is a bust. Kizer has some touch issues, but it's hard not to like his moxie (I hate myself) and arm strength. Watson, on the other hand, just isn't accurate enough to be a QB at this level. I don't own him anywhere, but would be taking what I could get.
I'm warming on Kizer and am pretty confident that Watson is a bust. Kizer has some touch issues, but it's hard not to like his moxie (I hate myself) and arm strength. Watson, on the other hand, just isn't accurate enough to be a QB at this level. I don't own him anywhere, but would be taking what I could get.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I'm not really a fan of Fleener but he is in a good situation right now with Brees and currently not a lot of competition for targets with the Saints.
A second round pick is decent return for him I think.
I guess the decision would come down to how many games do you see yourself starting Fleener this year?
That is basically what you are giving up. If you are only planning to start Fleener for a few games then go ahead and do it. If Fleener is your best TE option then maybe hold out for a better offer or start him.
FWIW Brees to Fleener was one of the few things that worked for them against the Vikings the other night. He did okay.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What makes you think Watson is not accurate enough for the NFL?
I don't have a strong opinion about the QBs but I think Watson is good at reading defenses and finding the open player in college. Haven't watched him much at all with the Texans though.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
His mid-to-deep accuracy has been awful as a pro - Tebow-esque. Perhaps those who paid closer attention than I can speak to it at the college level. I think he has some tools, and I'll be pulling for the guy to prove me wrong, but I'm worried.
Here's a breakdown of his pre-season wk 1 issues (9:30). Kollman seems to suggest they can be fixed with time, but I'm not as hopeful. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1S2UZQrqvc&t=950s
Milkman
Footballguy
The 2 biggest risers at the WR position for me is Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen.
Tyreek is a top 12 WR moving forward. The usage was the only question. I'd trade Hopkins for him straight up. Not high on Hopikins though. Cooks would be an even trade for Tyreek imo.
Thielen is a little tricky but if you believe he's going to get more targets than Diggs this year you have to at least value you him at Diggs level. Since they started putting him in the slot more he's going to be the most targeted WR on the team. Diggs will still get his but Thielen becomes less volatile and more steady with a solid/good ceiling as well.....the lack of TD's hurts his upside a little but he has 150+ target potential.......I'd put him in the WR22ish range........
Tyreek is a top 12 WR moving forward. The usage was the only question. I'd trade Hopkins for him straight up. Not high on Hopikins though. Cooks would be an even trade for Tyreek imo.
Thielen is a little tricky but if you believe he's going to get more targets than Diggs this year you have to at least value you him at Diggs level. Since they started putting him in the slot more he's going to be the most targeted WR on the team. Diggs will still get his but Thielen becomes less volatile and more steady with a solid/good ceiling as well.....the lack of TD's hurts his upside a little but he has 150+ target potential.......I'd put him in the WR22ish range........
jnagy42
Footballguy
My team is in rebuilding mode
I have been offered Wentz and a first rounder for Aaron Rodgers. Is that enough.
I look at it like half of the 1st round picks are busts. Wentz is number 11QB and 99 overall in dynasty rankings. Rodgers is #2 QB and number 25 overall.
Updated now is offering Corey Coleman as well for Desean Jackson as I said I needed more than a pick
thoughts
I have been offered Wentz and a first rounder for Aaron Rodgers. Is that enough.
I look at it like half of the 1st round picks are busts. Wentz is number 11QB and 99 overall in dynasty rankings. Rodgers is #2 QB and number 25 overall.
Updated now is offering Corey Coleman as well for Desean Jackson as I said I needed more than a pick
thoughts
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks for the link.
I can see the poor ball placement on one deep throw from the 1st week of preseaon that Brett points out. It should have been thrown inside so the defensive back couldn't make a play on the ball. He says this was an issue with Watson in college also.
I haven't taken the time to watch him enough to say one way or another. At least on the example pointed out in your link? The ball is getting there it just isn't placed perfectly. It wasn't so bad that I would compare his throws to Tebow. His college performance clearly much better as a passer than Tebow was. I feel like i need more examples of Watson being a bad passer than this to draw such a negative comparison.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He's a much better passer than Tebow. He doesn't have the god awful delivery and has solid touch. I only meant to comment on his deeper accuracy with the Tebow bit. But even that falls short, as Tebow's deep ball was the least of his issues.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I really haven't spent enough time watching the QBs to have a strong opinion either way.
I do hear a lot of criticism of Watson, such as his arm strength and I feel like defending him, as I think some of the criticism is unfair. But you and others may be right about that. I haven't put in enough time watching him to say one way or another.
I do hear a lot of criticism of Watson, such as his arm strength and I feel like defending him, as I think some of the criticism is unfair. But you and others may be right about that. I haven't put in enough time watching him to say one way or another.
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jnagy42
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Anybody wanna do a top 10 dynasty for RBs? Seems like a lot has changed as of late.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Deshaun Watson's First Career TD Drive! | Can't-Miss Play | NFL Week 1 Highlights
I did find this where Watson makes some good plays. None of these are deep throws however.
I did find this where Watson makes some good plays. None of these are deep throws however.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If you are rebuilding then making something happen quickly shouldn't be a major concern for you.
I think you should shop Rodgers to all interested parties and see what the best offer for him might be.
If the trade were Rodgers + Jackson for Wentz Coleman and a 1st I like it better than the initial offer, because I think Coleman is very good and while Jackson is also very good, he is getting older and won't maintain his value as long as I expect Coleman to. So Coleman a better option for a rebuilding team. I see that as an upgrade to balance out the big downgrade from Rodgers to Wentz.
The 1st round pick is useful but I agree with your perspective about the bust rate of rookie picks. Success rate, depending on how you measure it may actually be a bit better than 50% but there are a lot of rookies who fail every year.
I think the offer is interesting enough to consider, but as you are rebuilding I think you should try to hold out for more. See what other offers you can get for Rodgers from other teams. Think about his proposal for a week. If you don't get offered anything better and you still like the deal after thinking about it a week, then take it.
Your trade partner may want to use Rodgers right away, but as you are rebuilding, I think it is essential to hold out for the best price you can get.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So let's say you lost Arob and Edelman (hintity hint, I did), but are still a top end team, and your 2018 1st should pretty easily be later 1st..............what WRs would make sense to go after in terms of value and also being able to actually get them from an owner for a future pick? Basically, who would you think would be a decent WR to go after (that you can realistically get) straight up for a projected later 2018 1st?
BINGBING
Footballguy
I would easily make that if rebuilding. I have Rodgers in a dynasty and i'd consider it even with a win now roster.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
That is a tough trade after week one and obviously varies from league to league. I will throw out Kelvin Benjamin as a potential target after a tough start.
Milkman
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
This isn't scientific at all, but from watching them both play...Kizer looks a lot more "natural" in the pocket than I'd have ever thought. He just belongs, and that's on top of all the tools he has. He reminds me of Wentz last year, in that way. Its not always perfect and pretty, but in the pocket, he just looks like he's getting the most out of his tools and has a feel for the game.
I don't get that feeling at all watching Watson, AND he doesn't have the same tools.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Crabtree, Thielen, Fitz, Pryor, Snead and DT come to mind. Not sure I'd pay a 1st for all of them, but I'd certainly target them in your shoes.
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Andrew74
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Kizer didn't look great to me. Held onto the ball too long, didn't seem to know what to do. It's way too early but seemed more in line with Tarvaris Jackson and Jacoby Brissett.
I think Watson can be adequate for NFL and fantasy and nothing I saw changed my mind. For fantasy I'm encouraged he runs when the play breaks down, although that might not be the best for his NFL development.
I don't expect either to become great QB but both can be serviceable for fantasy short term. I still expect Watson to have a better career than Kizer or Trubisky (and probably not Mahomes).
EBF
Footballguy
My take:
1. Ezekiel Elliott - Young and seems to be an elite talent. How much weight do you put on the risk of suspension(s)?
2. LeVeon Bell - Proven talent and difference maker in his prime. 3-5 year window of great production. Trade value will only drop from here.
3. David Johnson - Proven talent and difference maker in his prime. 3-5 year window of great production. Trade value will only drop from here. Wrist injury limits his immediate value.
[1.01 rookie pick/Saquon Barkley] - The next super prospect. I think his market value is already this high. Looks legit to me.
4. Joe Mixon - I'm sold on the talent. Didn't like his demeanor after the loss, but if he stays motivated and focused then I think he's a tier one dynasty back. More potential for high volume than McCaffrey. Better in the passing game than Fournette.
5. Leonard Fournette - Never been sky high on him, but he's fast and physical, and showed some wiggle in the first game. He's going to have some big seasons.
6. Christian McCaffrey - Should be a PPR dynamo. Like a suped-up version of Sproles. Probably not a 300+ carry guy in the NFL though.
7. Todd Gurley - Kind of a tough guy to peg. Elite pedigree. Hasn't really looked elite running the ball for a while. Hard to predict what his career will look like. Given that he was a top 10 NFL draft pick, I wasn't that wowed by him in college and have never owned him anywhere. He is big, but he's not sudden or shifty. Still has the name brand recognition of a star player, but may end up being a bit of a bust.
8. Dalvin Cook - High draft slot and looked like a genuine starter in the opener. It feels a bit wrong ranking him this high, but the other options have warts too.
9. Jay Ajayi - I'm not really sold on his staying power, but he had a monster season in 2016 and is young.
10. Jordan Howard - Very similar story to Ajayi. I think he's a Mendenhall type of back. How much will Cohen's presence limit his upside?
OTHERS:
Devonta Freeman - Nice little player, but modest ceiling.
Melvin Gordon - Not that impressed with him.
Kareem Hunt - Looks to be this year's Ajayi/Howard. For now, I'm still sticking with my college assessment that he's not a special NFL talent. Think he's just a solid back in a great situation, and in dynasty I rank based more on the talent than the opportunity.
Ty Montgomery - He's a must-start every week he's in the lineup in PPR. Long-term, I don't think he's a featured back in the NFL.
Ameer Abdullah - I think he can be a LeSean McCoy type with the right situation/usage, but his current trajectory seems lower than that.
Carlos Hyde - May be a bit underrated. Good, but not great back. Bad team.
A few notes:
- 4 rookies in the top 10 and another knocking on the door? If it seems like I have rookie fever, just know that I think 2017 will go down as a historically great RB draft, similar to the McFadden/Stewart/Mendenhall/CJ2K/Rice/Charles year. Fournette, Cook, and Hunt look like they're going to have 1000+ yard rookie seasons. Mixon can get there. McCaffrey and Cohen are already startable in PPR. Perine, Kamara, and Foreman all have potential. Any of the three GB rookies could become relevant.
- Ranking unproven rookies like Mixon and McCaffrey over guys like Gordon, Howard, and Ajay who have already logged 1000+ yard seasons? There are two things are at work here. Age is hugely important in dynasty, not just for actual value (peak years remaining), but also for perceived value (ability to trade/adjust your roster). If you've played dynasty for a while, you know that it becomes pretty difficult to get top value for players as they creep near the 27-29 age range. It's not a huge factor if you're comparing a 24 year old like Gordon to a 21 year old like Mixon, but it's the reason why I tend to skew young with my rankings/valuations. Secondly, I'm big on "staying power" when it comes to dynasty rankings, which means I'm slower to move the needle on guys with suspect talent based on a single good season.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Surprised Gurleys so high in these rankings. I loved the guy too but he just doesn't look like the same back. Getting a Trent Richardson vibe off of him. If you cant run against the Colts, who can you run against. Yeah his blocking isn't the best but hes gotta do better than this. Read that he ran against 8 or more in the box on only 10% of the plays. Whereas guys like Cook, Fournette and Hunt were against 8 man fronts on better than 50% of the plays.
EBF
Footballguy
Not planning to buy Gurley anywhere, but he was a top 10 draft pick and did 1100 yards at 4.8 YPC as a rookie. If a guy with those credentials is slumping, I'm less likely to write him off completely since those are some major positives to anchor to. You can say Trent Richardson, but I can say Thomas Jones, Marshawn Lynch, and Cedric Benson. Sometimes good backs struggle due to immaturity and contextual variables. If you always bail when things look dicey, you sacrifice some value when the players turns it around.
The inverse kind of applies to the Kareem Hunt/Jay Ajayi/Jordan Howard crowd. They weren't exactly elite draft prospects, so even though they've done some nice things, does that prove they're legit talents or are they just mediocre guys in a hot streak? These are always tough situations to navigate. If I don't have a strong gut instinct one way or the other, I try to find a middle ground. Gurley at RB7 seems like a reasonable middle ground. It's below the healthy prime elite talents and the best rookies, but ahead of some of the dubious guys, JAG types, and fading old guys.
I think this is a big year for him though. I'm likely going to be pretty stubborn with people like Mixon, Hunt, and McCaffrey even if they struggle/dominate since one year of production doesn't have to tell you much, but when it starts to look like a long-term trend then you have to really wonder. If Gurley stinks it up for another year then the odds of him being flat out bad look a lot higher, so his ranking is pretty volatile right now.
The inverse kind of applies to the Kareem Hunt/Jay Ajayi/Jordan Howard crowd. They weren't exactly elite draft prospects, so even though they've done some nice things, does that prove they're legit talents or are they just mediocre guys in a hot streak? These are always tough situations to navigate. If I don't have a strong gut instinct one way or the other, I try to find a middle ground. Gurley at RB7 seems like a reasonable middle ground. It's below the healthy prime elite talents and the best rookies, but ahead of some of the dubious guys, JAG types, and fading old guys.
I think this is a big year for him though. I'm likely going to be pretty stubborn with people like Mixon, Hunt, and McCaffrey even if they struggle/dominate since one year of production doesn't have to tell you much, but when it starts to look like a long-term trend then you have to really wonder. If Gurley stinks it up for another year then the odds of him being flat out bad look a lot higher, so his ranking is pretty volatile right now.
