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spider321

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I thought there was a thread devoted to superflex strategy, but damned if I can find it.

I'm in a league with balanced scoring (12 of the top 32 players are QBs), but the uber studs dominate at the top (QBs are 6 of the top 8 scoring players this season).

In this format, how important is it to have a good/great 2nd QB on your roster, and what would you pay to get it? 

I'm in a weird situation where I have one of the top 6 QBs, but then literally no one else at the position.  And yet my team finished with the 2nd highest PF and 3rd All-Play record.

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28 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Wondering if anyone is interested in discussing their current strategies for dynasty startups in 2021. Things like desired draft position(s), positional value and related strategies, trading philosophy in startups, etc. I know this is the dynasty value thread, but figured it might be okay to talk strategy. Interested in drawing wisdom from this group.

Trade down, accumulate additional picks in the late-2nd through 5th rounds.  Spend them wisely on young players who haven't yet cracked the top 18.

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5 hours ago, Pwingles said:

12 team superflex

where do we have Lamar vs Watson rn?

if you owned one, and someone offered you the other one, what types of things needed to be added, if anything to get it done?

They seem like a straight up swap.   Maybe Watson holds value longer, as the better passing QB.  Maybe Jackson is the choice if you’re in “win now” mode.  Do you have a love or hate relationship with either player or team?

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I’m trying to acquire Watson or Herbert in a one QB .5 PPR league.

Is there a running back or receiver that you have in that range? Or can you think of a package?

Do you feel that the dynasty value charts on football guys or fantasy pros are pretty reasonable?

He asked for Hill or Ridley straight up for one of the QBs. The other option was David Johnson + McLaurin or Lamb.  
 

I think in a super flex it’s all pretty reasonable, but in a one QB league, we’re pretty far apart.

I thought about Johnson and Mims or Johnson and Kirk.  But I feel like that may not get it done.

Edited by jm192
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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

I’m trying to acquire Watson or Herbert in a one QB .5 PPR league.

Is there a running back or receiver that you have in that range? Or can you think of a package?

Do you feel that the dynasty value charts on football guys or fantasy pros are pretty reasonable?

Do you feel that the dynasty value charts on football guys or fantasy pros are pretty reasonable?

He asked for Hill or Ridley straight up for one of the QBs. The other option was David Johnson + McLaurin or Lamb.  
 

I think in a super flex it’s all pretty reasonable, but in a one QB league, we’re pretty far apart.

I thought about Johnson and Mims or Johnson and Kirk.  But I feel like that may not get it done.

I think the other owner is trying to sell high.   You should pass, and not respond.

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18 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Trade down, accumulate additional picks in the late-2nd through 5th rounds.  Spend them wisely on young players who haven't yet cracked the top 18.

I agree with this. I don’t really love the value of the first round this year. If I can get Barkley ~1.08 - I’m in. Otherwise I’m trading back.

Ideally I’d land a couple RBs I like and a WR1 in the first 2-4 rounds, then shotgun upside plays. I’d be stoked with something like the below. I’m using DLF ADP as a rough guide. Some of these picks feel optimistic, but there are no 2021 rookies yet, so maybe not. This assumes I trade a 1st for a 3rd and 4th, which is conservative. 

WR is so deep that I wouldn’t draft one in the first couple rounds. I like Diggs (etc.) in the 3rd more than DK (etc.) in the 1st. And unlike RB, you’ll be able to draft starters in rounds 7 - 9: Landry, Anderson, Agholor, etc. Or quality upside like Gallup or Davis.

With the depth at WR, I think it makes sense to splurge on one of the top QBs and/or TEs. But waiting and grabbing a couple more RBs/WRs isn’t a bad move either.

2 - Sanders (or Swift or Taylor)

3 - Robinson (or Gibson or Ekeler)

3 - Diggs (or Higgins or Ridley or Terry)

4 - Aiyuk

4 - Claypool

5 - Waller (or Hockenson or Andrews)

6 - Herbert (or Allen or Watson)

7 - Fuller (or Beckham or Julio)

Edited by Concept Coop
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2 hours ago, jm192 said:

He asked for Hill or Ridley straight up for one of the QBs. The other option was David Johnson + McLaurin or Lamb.  

I think in a super flex it’s all pretty reasonable, but in a one QB league, we’re pretty far apart.

I thought about Johnson and Mims or Johnson and Kirk.  But I feel like that may not get it done.

Way too much for a QB in a start 1 league. Maybe try for Hurts. He could be as valuable as the other two by the end of next season - and shouldn’t cost nearly as much. Take advantage this deep rookie QB class. Lawrence in the late 1st is a solid investment, IMO. Or Fields/Wilson in the 2nd. Trey Lance is my favorite value in the class right now, and is likely to go in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Wilson and Trask could be 4th round picks.

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19 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I thought there was a thread devoted to superflex strategy, but damned if I can find it.

I'm in a league with balanced scoring (12 of the top 32 players are QBs), but the uber studs dominate at the top (QBs are 6 of the top 8 scoring players this season).

In this format, how important is it to have a good/great 2nd QB on your roster, and what would you pay to get it? 

I'm in a weird situation where I have one of the top 6 QBs, but then literally no one else at the position.  And yet my team finished with the 2nd highest PF and 3rd All-Play record.

My immediate reaction is that it is very important to have a good/great #2 QB on your roster.

One of my dynasty leagues is superflex, and QBs are gold -- 44 are rostered. However, the scoring is QB heavy -- QBs 20 of the top 25 scorers. Sounds like your league is quite different, so maybe my reaction really doesn't fit.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:
19 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Trade down, accumulate additional picks in the late-2nd through 5th rounds.  Spend them wisely on young players who haven't yet cracked the top 18.

I agree with this. I don’t really love the value of the first round this year. If I can get Barkley ~1.08 - I’m in. Otherwise I’m trading back.

Ideally I’d land a couple RBs I like and a WR1 in the first 2-4 rounds, then shotgun upside plays. I’d be stoked with something like the below. I’m using DLF ADP as a rough guide. Some of these picks feel optimistic, but there are no 2021 rookies yet, so maybe not. This assumes I trade a 1st for a 3rd and 4th, which is conservative. 

WR is so deep that I wouldn’t draft one in the first couple rounds. I like Diggs (etc.) in the 3rd more than DK (etc.) in the 1st. And unlike RB, you’ll be able to draft starters in rounds 7 - 9: Landry, Anderson, Agholor, etc. Or quality upside like Gallup or Davis.

With the depth at WR, I think it makes sense to splurge on one of the top QBs and/or TEs. But waiting and grabbing a couple more RBs/WRs isn’t a bad move either.

2 - Sanders (or Swift or Taylor)

3 - Robinson (or Gibson or Ekeler)

3 - Diggs (or Higgins or Ridley or Terry)

4 - Aiyuk

4 - Claypool

5 - Waller (or Hockenson or Andrews)

6 - Herbert (or Allen or Watson)

7 - Fuller (or Beckham or Julio)

:goodposting:

Thanks for both posts. Interesting to think about.

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I will echo the idea of trading down in a start up draft. Usually what I try to do is I let everyone know I am willing to trade down, then hopefully I get some decent offers.

What I try to do is to trade down for picks of similar value plus a 1st round pick in the following season if possible. I try to do that as many times as I can. Then when the 1st round picks dry up I will try for 2nd round picks.

I have been able to execute this with varying results. You still need to have trade partners willing to make the move.

I have had several year two of league situations where I am holding 3 maybe 4 1st round picks. Some times the team is competitive that first season, some times it isn't. 

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On 12/30/2020 at 1:39 PM, Biabreakable said:

I really like both players but I value Lamar Jackson more.

It would take close to a 1st round pick type of value for me to move Jackson for Watson. I would maybe settle for a 2nd and nice prospect player or something though.

I do think for the purposes of their real value its closer than that. I just like Jacksons upside more, although I have concerns about how the Ravens will manage his development.

Watson is already there and keeps getting better. I can see Watson as perhaps a safer play. To me it comes down to upside and if I have my choice I would rather go with Jackson. No body runs like him.

Surprising take. I would not trade Watson for Jackson straight up.

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30 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

Surprising take. I would not trade Watson for Jackson straight up.

I can see the other side of this. I do think Watson is the better passer right now for sure.

Jackson regressed as a passer in his 3rd season statistically but he is only 23 years old. Watson is further along in his development right now. A couple years older.

I can see Watson having the better career if Jackson does not continue to improve. I think Jackson will though and he has more upside, so I would prefer to have him. It is my goal to have players who are number one at their position. Jackson did that in his 2nd season. I think both QB are going to be top 12 for quite some time moving forward. I think they are closer in value than the trade value difference I suggested. If I had either I would not be looking to give them up. I would draft Jackson higher than Watson because of the upside but ADP might say something different. I am not sure.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I can see the other side of this. I do think Watson is the better passer right now for sure.

Jackson regressed as a passer in his 3rd season statistically but he is only 23 years old. Watson is further along in his development right now. A couple years older.

I can see Watson having the better career if Jackson does not continue to improve. I think Jackson will though and he has more upside, so I would prefer to have him. It is my goal to have players who are number one at their position. Jackson did that in his 2nd season. I think both QB are going to be top 12 for quite some time moving forward. I think they are closer in value than the trade value difference I suggested. If I had either I would not be looking to give them up. I would draft Jackson higher than Watson because of the upside but ADP might say something different. I am not sure.

I'm not saying it is a slam dunk by any means, but I think Watson is as good a passer as Jackson can ever hope to become. Absent reaching that level as a passer, the legs can be as much a liability long term as they are an advantage short term. JMHO.

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24 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

I'm not saying it is a slam dunk by any means, but I think Watson is as good a passer as Jackson can ever hope to become. Absent reaching that level as a passer, the legs can be as much a liability long term as they are an advantage short term. JMHO.

Possible. I dont really have confidence in the structure around Jackson, so I think he has to over come that.

If they could somehow get a good WR it would help.

I dont think any QB has the upside of Jackson is what it comes down to for me. 

I am talking about fantasy not real football here.

Happy New Year!

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9 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Possible. I dont really have confidence in the structure around Jackson, so I think he has to over come that.

If they could somehow get a good WR it would help.

I dont think any QB has the upside of Jackson is what it comes down to for me. 

I am talking about fantasy not real football here.

Happy New Year!

I think if after three seasons you're playing the If/Then/Else game with any player, but particularly QB, you're just wishing for a guy to be something he's not.

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On 12/30/2020 at 2:18 PM, Just Win Baby said:

I'm in two dynasty leagues and have been in a total of four at times, but the most recent startup among them was 2013. So I haven't actually participated in a dynasty startup draft for several years. Planning to join a new startup this year. Expecting 12 team, PPR, not sure of other details yet.

Wondering if anyone is interested in discussing their current strategies for dynasty startups in 2021. Things like desired draft position(s), positional value and related strategies, trading philosophy in startups, etc. I know this is the dynasty value thread, but figured it might be okay to talk strategy. Interested in drawing wisdom from this group.

:popcorn: 

Be lucky enough to draw a top pick and then trade down for a haul. This has been the standard strategy for years in snake startups. The value top picks have and usually draw in trades is immense.

Which is why a lot of us advocate for switching to auction for startups.

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More of a strategy question than a value question, but it probably fits here. I took over an orphaned team this seen and did my best to sell off aging pieces and compiled picks along the way. I how have three first round picks (pick 1, and two late) and a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Is it better to keep the top pick or to leverage it into multiple later picks/young players?  

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14 minutes ago, Blick said:

More of a strategy question than a value question, but it probably fits here. I took over an orphaned team this seen and did my best to sell off aging pieces and compiled picks along the way. I how have three first round picks (pick 1, and two late) and a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Is it better to keep the top pick or to leverage it into multiple later picks/young players?  

I'm in the same spot. Orphaned team, that I cut to the bone (maybe a bit TOO far, actually) and now I have the 1, 8, 10, 12, 13, 14 and 13 picks total (6 rounds, IDP draft).

I have no intention of trading the #1 pick unless I can get a great but young veteran/good but young veteran plus at least a 2nd. You know, I if someone wants to trade me DK Metcalf, for example, I'll let him. Eventually you need to acquire a few elite players and you can do that with the #1.

But then again, I really like Najee Harris. Or Etienne or Ja'Marr Chase. There's just something to be said for buying yourself time with a rookie. If you're in a rebuild, you're looking at a 2-3 year window so even a young veteran is starting to age by the time you're planning on being competitive.    

Kind of a rambling answer, but I hope you see where I'm going with that. Short answer - keep the #1. 

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40 minutes ago, Blick said:

More of a strategy question than a value question, but it probably fits here. I took over an orphaned team this seen and did my best to sell off aging pieces and compiled picks along the way. I how have three first round picks (pick 1, and two late) and a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Is it better to keep the top pick or to leverage it into multiple later picks/young players?  

The easy answer is, it depends on the deal you could get...you definitely want to see what you can get for it because the first pick in any draft will always have a ton of value but while I love this draft I'm not sure if someone will overpay for the #1 because there is so much top-tier talent in it IMO...question, is this 2 QB or super-flex?  If it is that changes things in a big way because Lawrence's value skyrockets in these formats.

Edited by Boston
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1 hour ago, Blick said:

More of a strategy question than a value question, but it probably fits here. I took over an orphaned team this seen and did my best to sell off aging pieces and compiled picks along the way. I how have three first round picks (pick 1, and two late) and a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Is it better to keep the top pick or to leverage it into multiple later picks/young players?  

In the situation you described, I'd consider more what I want to be next year than this coming season. If acquiring young talent with picks gives you an upside of lower/middle of the pack, then the impact to your draft slotting next year is going to impede your rebuild. It may be better to roster not yet performing/high upside rookies for a year. 

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1 hour ago, Blick said:

More of a strategy question than a value question, but it probably fits here. I took over an orphaned team this seen and did my best to sell off aging pieces and compiled picks along the way. I how have three first round picks (pick 1, and two late) and a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. Is it better to keep the top pick or to leverage it into multiple later picks/young players?  

I wouldn't worry about trying to get more picks out of 1.01.  It sounds like you already have enough.  I'd try and turn those lates 1sts into 2022 1sts.

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McLaurin vs Akers?

Akers owner wants McLaurin.  I figure they're close in terms of dynasty value, and I'm RB needyish (Sanders/Montgomery/David Johnson).  

Should I ask for more?  Should I offer more?  

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14 minutes ago, jm192 said:

McLaurin vs Akers?

Akers owner wants McLaurin.  I figure they're close in terms of dynasty value, and I'm RB needyish (Sanders/Montgomery/David Johnson).  

Should I ask for more?  Should I offer more?  

If it were me.....I would ask for a little more......maybe a 2021 2nd or 3rd. Scary Terry is valuable while Akers is still a bit of an unknown.

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9 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I think if after three seasons you're playing the If/Then/Else game with any player, but particularly QB, you're just wishing for a guy to be something he's not.

I have already seen him be a number one QB for fantasy though last season. You act like he hasn't been good. He did that his second season in the league. Right now he is QB 10. Watson is QB 6.

He is 23 years old. I don't think we have seen the best of Jackson yet.

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6 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I have already seen him be a number one QB for fantasy though last season. You act like he hasn't been good. He did that his second season in the league. Right now he is QB 10. Watson is QB 6.

He is 23 years old. I don't think we have seen the best of Jackson yet.

Watson's forecast depends on front office/coaching hires. I think he's done what he's done so far in the pros despite those above him. His play went to another level this year, but it largely went unnoticed because the team sucks. And this actually presents short term opportunity too - cause fixing that defense is going to take several years. This is a team that will need to score 30-40 points/game to win for the foreseeable future. 

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5 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Watson's forecast depends on front office/coaching hires. I think he's done what he's done so far in the pros despite those above him. His play went to another level this year, but it largely went unnoticed because the team sucks. And this actually presents short term opportunity too - cause fixing that defense is going to take several years. This is a team that will need to score 30-40 points/game to win for the foreseeable future. 

Its certainly not my intent to take anything away from Watson who has been great and seems to keep improving despite the lack of support around him. I am a huge fan of Watson.

I just think Jackson will improve as well. I do however wish he were on another team.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I have already seen him be a number one QB for fantasy though last season. You act like he hasn't been good. He did that his second season in the league. Right now he is QB 10. Watson is QB 6.

He is 23 years old. I don't think we have seen the best of Jackson yet.

No I didn't. I implied that he's not going to be a better passer/more traditional QB. So if he gets his rushing TDs, he has a chance at being a top QB. But if he doesn't, he could drop considerably (in a particular season). Like around QB10 this year. Getting a better WR isn't going to change who he is.

Contrast that with Watson who lost one of the league's best WRs and still ended up in the top 5/6-ish depending on scoring.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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On 1/1/2021 at 6:42 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

No I didn't. I implied that he's not going to be a better passer/more traditional QB.

Why do you think a 23 year old QB won't improve as a passer?

On 1/1/2021 at 6:42 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

So if he gets his rushing TDs, he has a chance at being a top QB. But if he doesn't, he could drop considerably (in a particular season). Like around QB10 this year. Getting a better WR isn't going to change who he is.

He is going to be who he is regardless but a better receiver would increase his completion percentage, extend drives and make for a better overall offense.

Look at what Stefon Diggs did for Josh Allen as a QB this year. Its a poor argument to say it doesn't matter.

On 1/1/2021 at 6:42 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

Contrast that with Watson who lost one of the league's best WRs and still ended up in the top 5/6-ish depending on scoring.

Watson still has Brandin Cooks who in my opinion is a better player than Fuller. He also plays for a team with no defense and as such throwing the ball much more  30% more passing attempts for Watson than Jackson.

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45 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Why do you think a 23 year old QB won't improve as a passer?

He is going to be who he is regardless but a better receiver would increase his completion percentage, extend drives and make for a better overall offense.

Look at what Stefon Diggs did for Josh Allen as a QB this year. Its a poor argument to say it doesn't matter.

Watson still has Brandin Cooks who in my opinion is a better player than Fuller. He also plays for a team with no defense and as such throwing the ball much more  30% more passing attempts for Watson than Jackson.

A) Because he really hasn't in three years. His receiving corps isn't really different than it was last year and he regressed significantly this year.

B) I suppose I can admit it's true that a better WR could help...but it's a hypothetical.  I don't see a run first team changing its stripes. 

C) Watson playing for a passing team with a bad defense is an argument FOR Watson over Jackson.

 

I'm won't say it's impossible for Jackson to outscore Watson. But if one had to bet on which one would be the higher scorer for the season my money would be on Watson.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

A) Because he really hasn't in three years. His receiving corps isn't really different than it was last year and he regressed significantly this year.

B) I suppose I can admit it's true that a better WR could help...but it's a hypothetical.  I don't see a run first team changing its stripes. 

C) Watson playing for a passing team with a bad defense is an argument FOR Watson over Jackson.

 

I'm won't say it's impossible for Jackson to outscore Watson. But if one had to bet on which one would be the higher scorer for the season my money would be on Watson.

He has regressed as a passer in his 3rd season. We want to see him keep improving there. So its a step back. Traditionally the 3rd season is where we see a lot of QB start playing at their best. It didn't happen for Jackson this year. His second season was very very good though. 

Actually looking at it from a efficiency standpoint Jacksons completion percentage yards per attempt and so on are fine. Its just so low volume.

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2 hours ago, jm192 said:

David Johnson value check?

Trying to sell high after his big return.  Anyone had any luck?  What should I be aiming for ?  Was thinking I'd be happy to get a 2021 2nd.  

One man's opinion, but I think he's toast.  And the "big return" is likely viewed as a Gaskin/Jeff Wilson flash-in-the-pan.  That being said, a late 2nd isn't a ridiculous ask.  I bet you'd get a lot of bites on an early 3rd.

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3 hours ago, jm192 said:

David Johnson value check?

Trying to sell high after his big return.  Anyone had any luck?  What should I be aiming for ?  Was thinking I'd be happy to get a 2021 2nd.  

I just won a ship with him but I doubt I can move him. If you have any luck let me know. I'd probably jump for a 2nd. Include him in a package for something else maybe.

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12 hours ago, jm192 said:

David Johnson value check?

Trying to sell high after his big return.  Anyone had any luck?  What should I be aiming for ?  Was thinking I'd be happy to get a 2021 2nd.  

Sold him before the season started. Got a 2021 1st. Played the guy I traded him to in the ship and beat him. So got the 1.11.

I ended up trading Barkley and my 2021 2nd for Kamara. That's what put me over the top for the ship. So in a nutshell...

Got Kamara, 2021 1.11 and a ship

Gave Johnson, Barkley and the 2021 2.12

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On 12/22/2020 at 5:19 PM, Concept Coop said:
On 12/21/2020 at 7:19 PM, Helaire-ious said:

I'd put Gibson & Robinson ahead of Taylor as of now.

There's a good argument for that. I'd say they've had better seasons than Taylor, front to back.

Still believe this?

Taylor had more rushing yards, YFS, rushing TDs, and total TDs, fewer fumbles, and higher YPC than Gibson and Robinson. Taylor finished the season very strong, not just the monster game yesterday, but also the previous 4 games, within which he had 488/5 rushing and 9/71/1 receiving.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Still believe this?

Taylor had more rushing yards, YFS, rushing TDs, and total TDs, fewer fumbles, and higher YPC than Gibson and Robinson. Taylor finished the season very strong, not just the monster game yesterday, but also the previous 4 games, within which he had 488/5 rushing and 9/71/1 receiving.

I’d say Taylor had the best season now. Robinson the most consistent. Taylor and Jefferson are my top rookies, and both should be first round startup picks, IMO.

I think this is the best rookie class I’ve seen. The RBs don’t quite measure up to 08’ or 17’, but the WRs more than make up for it. QB is strong, too. (Herbert. 🥰) It lacks TEs, but I can forgive that.

 

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Here’s how I’d draft them today, with about 20 minutes notice.  PPR, 1QB.

T1 - Taylor, Jefferson

T2 - Swift, Lamb, Higgins, Dobbins, Gibson, Robinson

T3 - CEH, Akers, Aiyuk, Claypool

T4 - Herbert, Dillon

T5 - Jeudy, Davis, Raegor, Shenault, Pittman, Moss, Ruggs, Burrow, Mooney

T6 - Mimms, Hurts, Tua, Bowden

Edit: Added tier break after Claypool. Order unchanged.

Edited by Concept Coop
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What would be the highest 2021 pick people would be willing to pay for Justin Hebert in a 1QB league? I know conventional wisdom is to not pay a premium price for a QB in dynasty (non-superflex) but having a set it and forget it option is always nice.

I made the playoffs in this particular league despite trading assets all season. I started garbage and stop gap QBs all season (Jimmy G, Sam Darnold, Taysom Hill and Daniel Jones).

I now own the 1.06, 1.07, 1.08 and 1.10 and I'm willing to move at least the 1.10 for Hebert.

I'm not trying to turn this into a AC topic - so generally speaking what do you think these young successful QBs like Hebert or Burrow are worth?

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

What would be the highest 2021 pick people would be willing to pay for Justin Hebert in a 1QB league? I know conventional wisdom is to not pay a premium price for a QB in dynasty (non-superflex) but having a set it and forget it option is always nice.

I made the playoffs in this particular league despite trading assets all season. I started garbage and stop gap QBs all season (Jimmy G, Sam Darnold, Taysom Hill and Daniel Jones).

I now own the 1.06, 1.07, 1.08 and 1.10 and I'm willing to move at least the 1.10 for Hebert.

I'm not trying to turn this into a AC topic - so generally speaking what do you think these young successful QBs like Hebert or Burrow are worth?

I'm a young rebuilding team on the verge of being competitive (Swift, Ekeler, AJ Brown, Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Goedert) but my weakness is QB (Ben, Goff, Taysom).  I have 1.1, 1.7, 2.3, and smattering of extra picks next few years.  1QB 12 team league.  Burrow is a trade target, as that team also has Kyler.  I have offer from him -- essentially two 2nds (including 2.3) and a 3rd for Burrow.  I'm considering it, but probably will counter with one 2nd and two 3rds...with none of them in 2021.  But I'm still mulling if I really want to pay that much for a QB.  

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@Dr. Octopus I'm an advocate of overpaying a bit for a young QB that you can set and forget even in a one QB league. 

With all those picks, I'd easily give the 8 or 10 for Herbert this far ahead of time before the draft. I'd probably swallow hard and part with the 6 or 7 but I'd probably wait until after the NFL draft to do that.

It would be harder to do if I only had a couple of those picks.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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1 minute ago, Fruitbat said:

I'm a young rebuilding team on the verge of being competitive (Swift, Ekeler, AJ Brown, Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Goedert) but my weakness is QB (Ben, Goff, Taysom).  I have 1.1, 1.7, 2.3, and smattering of extra picks next few years.  1QB 12 team league.  Burrow is a trade target, as that team also has Kyler.  I have offer from him -- essentially two 2nds (including 2.3) and a 3rd for Burrow.  I'm considering it, but probably will counter with one 2nd and two 3rds...with none of them in 2021.  But I'm still mulling if I really want to pay that much for a QB.  

The thing is that the top drafted QBs usually get drafted in Round 2 so if they show successfully why would their owners sell for a second? 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm not trying to turn this into a AC topic - so generally speaking what do you think these young successful QBs like Hebert or Burrow are worth?

Even before the injury to Burrow I liked Herbert more by a solid margin.

I’d have to see what Lawrence’s ADP looks like to answer for Burrow, as I prefer the former. If I had make the call without that information, I’d probably trade ~the 2.02 for Burrow today, if I really needed a QB. 

Herbert is a top 5 dynasty QB for me. I’d have no problem paying the 1.08 for him right now. Maybe a bit more, depending on what things look like closer to rookie drafts. I’m sold.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The thing is that the top drafted QBs usually get drafted in Round 2 so if they show successfully why would their owners sell for a second? 

Yup...and he picked Burrow top third of the 2nd round.  So in my situation, it's a matter of how much profit would he be willing to take (a couple of thirds?  another 2nd?) to trade away his backup.  And there really isn't a market for Burrow other than my team.

also, I know your scenario was about Herbert.  I'd consider my 1.7 for Herbert, but pretty sure the owner wouldn't take it -- he loves him.  Plus its possible Lawrence slips to 7 for me (and if he doesn't, there should be a good RB/WR/TE there).  The 1.1 would be an interesting debate for him, but I wouldn't offer it.

My dream scenario is that Taysom gets that starting job next year.  Or if Brees returns, I trade for him for cheap.  Or get Cousins from the Watson/Hurts owner.  And combine one of those scenarios with Ben/Goff already on my roster and pray.  So all those types of scenarios, if I am willing, drive down my willingness to trade for someone like Burrow.

1QB leagues basically boil down to -- QBs are not that valuable, and are easy to find...until you don't have one.  Especially in our league where scoring is the  same for passing TDs as rushing/receiving.

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38 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

What would be the highest 2021 pick people would be willing to pay for Justin Hebert in a 1QB league? I know conventional wisdom is to not pay a premium price for a QB in dynasty (non-superflex) but having a set it and forget it option is always nice.

I made the playoffs in this particular league despite trading assets all season. I started garbage and stop gap QBs all season (Jimmy G, Sam Darnold, Taysom Hill and Daniel Jones).

I now own the 1.06, 1.07, 1.08 and 1.10 and I'm willing to move at least the 1.10 for Hebert.

I'm not trying to turn this into a AC topic - so generally speaking what do you think these young successful QBs like Hebert or Burrow are worth?

Probably not enough, but also not something I'll know until April. I won a league with a QB depth chart that may all be without starting jobs next season. My goal is to acquire a non-Lawrence rookie at pick 2.4 and find a cheap vet to bridge the gap. I'll re-evaluate if I'm not optimistic about the rookie landing spots. I'm fine waiting because I don't imagine the market rate for QB's changes between now and then. If anything as rookie fever takes over I may be able to acquire such a QB cheaper.

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

Probably not enough, but also not something I'll know until April. I won a league with a QB depth chart that may all be without starting jobs next season. My goal is to acquire a non-Lawrence rookie at pick 2.4 and find a cheap vet to bridge the gap. I'll re-evaluate if I'm not optimistic about the rookie landing spots. I'm fine waiting because I don't imagine the market rate for QB's changes between now and then. If anything as rookie fever takes over I may be able to acquire such a QB cheaper.

This is where I'm at.  

I'm in a 1 QB league, went into the season with Ryan and Goff.  Picked up Tua in the draft (ahead of Herbert :( ).  

Wound up picking up Trubisky off waivers for the Championship and he got me there.  

Goff is  bad.  Ryan is up and down.  And Tua...doesn't look like he's it.  

Hoping to strike a deal but most guys seem to be expecting a premium on a QB.  I was asked for Tyreke Hill or Ridley or McLaurin+ for Watson, and was told it would be close to the same for Herbert (same owner).  

So basically waiting.  Hoping as you said, people get a little pick happy closer to the draft. 

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