Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm with you. I acquired him for a rebuild project but only with the intention of flipping him for someone better. He had a hint of life but that's about it.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
Interesting - I own Gaskin and would be looking to sell him. While he’s a solid RB, I fully expect the Dolphins to upgrade and find a more potent weapon - either in FA or in the draft - to take pressure off Tua. And the Dolphins have some cap space and premium picks to pull it off.
MAC_32
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
They do. I just don't think they'll use their best bullets on rb. Maybe if a tier 1 guy falls far enough round 2. And their FO doesn't strike me as the type to pony up for Aaron Jones.
rockaction
Footballguy
Very much this. You're able to count guys past the age of twenty-seven that make meaningful fantasy contributions on the smallest of one hands.
Gaskin is an interesting guy to discuss. I like him and own him in a few leagues. I think Miami is the kind of spot where if you practice/play well, you start and he has done that. I suppose there is some risk they upgrade there, but seems likelier they upgrade more crucial positions than RB with their premium picks. He just averaged 16 ppg in ppr as a 23 year old for an ascending team. I have him ranked RB24 and that is with the big 3 rookies ahead of him. I suppose that is decently higher than consensus (guessing RB35-40 value).
jabarony
Footballguy
He's a Detroit Lions 2nd round RB. If that's not bullet-proof, I don't know what is.
Absolutely and talent as well and that's probably the part were I'm surprised that he's not more highly regarded because I think he has both.
joey
Footballguy
Not that it’s the end all be all but Swift is ranked 39th overall in FBG dynasty rankings (average of only 2 current overall rankings, but still). I’m personally closer to that ranking than top 10
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Is anyone dropping Kerryon Johnson in deep dynasty? I can keep 20 and planned to at least see where he lands in 2022 free agency, but it's starting to feel like it's not going to matter. Obviously he's made of glass if he can't even stay healthy with this year's workload. I can live with injury prone if the rookie season juice is still there, but I'm wondering if this simply isn't the same player post-injury? Sure seemed like both Lions coaches thought so.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
And I could see them trading day 3 draft capital for a vet his team no longer covets again.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m thinking they surely look to upgrade the position one way or the other. It’s always fashionable to say a team won’t spend assets to upgrade an average RB, but then they always do.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think every other position group arguably could also use an upgrade. If that weren't the case and they had this treasure trove of assets I may think otherwise. If they have an opportunity at a value I think they'll pull the trigger, but don't expect them to force the issue.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think the Kerryon ship has sailed. Obviously we don't know who the coaching staff will be, but have to think that this will be Swift's backfield. My guess is that Kerryon will remain as a backup at best. By 2022, he'll probably be JAG in free agency. Guys like him typically don't get signed into starting gigs unless they're electric. There are plenty of younger bucks in the rookie draft for that.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It wouldn’t take a first round pick or top free agent to replace Gaskin who basically gets what’s blocked for him. He has average speed and no power at all. He’s a backup level RB - I think it’s way more likely than not they bring some one in that they think will beat him out.
Sorry, but owners of RBs like him will always throw out the “this team has too many holes to use assets at RB” mantra and they’re almost always wrong. He’s a sell not a buy imo. He finished the season well but looked very pedestrian whenever I watched the Dolphins - solid but not close to being a difference maker. A team with a weak QB like Tua needs a playmaker in the backfield.
zamboni
Footballguy
Have to agree here, as much as I'd like to believe otherwise as a Gaskin owner. Gaskin himself was a nice find in the 7th round by the Dolphins. If they want a replacement or competition, they don't even need to spend that high of a pickif they don't go the FA route. As we see every year, the RB position is devalued in the rookie draft - and understandably so - because it's a very replaceable position.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I really have no idea what Miami is planning (none of us do), but I would argue that they do have a treasure trove of assets. They have the #3, #18, #36 and #54 overall picks, plus as of right now they have the 7th most cap space next year. They won't be taking a RB with their first two selections, but they could select one with one of their 2nd rounders (I've seen Harris mocked to them at #36), or they could acquire even more assets if they trade down from either of their first rounders.
Between their cap space and draft picks they have plenty of assets to go get a RB if they don't think Gaskin is the "guy". That's obviously the million dollar question, not so much do they have the ammo to bring in a good RB because they most certainly do.
Boston
Footballguy
Very much agree with a lot of this...any team without a top-shelf RB is a threat to draft a high quality RB, especially since these type of RBs usually don't go as early as they used to (Swift, Taylor and Dobbins being the latest examples)...any Gaskin Owner has to understand that is a very real possibility and I think it's even more possible since Miami has two #1's and two #2's...that first #2 could be a great spot for Najee, Williams or Etienne...one thing I will disagree with is I do not see Gaskin suddenly disappearing...I think he is going to be a piece of the running game going forward...he reminds me a of James White type in that he will be a very reliable, non-flashy RB that a Coach loves because he can trust...due to that I think he is a buy as long as your expectations are realistic...the reason I think he's a buy is his owners are probably panicked and will sell low and I think you are acquiring a good bench piece that you could start if you get hit with injuries and also has the ability to put up real good numbers if there are injuries in the Miami backfield...I think players like Gaskin tend to get overlooked in the off-season when there are no injuries and we look at everything as a half-glass full with regard to our rosters but he's the type of guy that in about week 12 next year when the injuries are piling up and the rookie we drafted is underperforming we thank God we have.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Again...
...I don't think we disagree (much) about this.
Where I think we may not aligned is the state of the team. This team is a year ahead of schedule. They were supposed to do what they did this year next year. If rebuilt properly the contending window opens in 2022 and I think that's still the objective. If an unexpected opportunity appears before then I expect them to take it. I just don't think it's a priority. I expect them to intend to use their priority draft assets on more valuable positions (edge, wr, ol) and to trade into 2022 with a goal of making the playoffs this year. Re-assess RB after and consider making it a priority then. If presented with an option between less valuable positions between RB and TE (i.e.) I think they'd lean the latter all else being equal.
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Boston
Footballguy
I think Miami's #1 goal this offseason (by far IMO) should be to surround Tua with as many assets as possible be it on the line, at RB and at WR...they need to put him in the best position to succeed...if they get him settled down next year (which I think they do) the future is very bright...if they don't that can really derail the progress Miami is making and they can take a big step backwards.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I have him 12th overall (1.12) in PPR formats. I wouldn’t feel great taking him there, but there just aren’t 12 guys I prefer.
I’d take him over Henry. I’m not sure I’d trade Henry for him if I have a top team, but I’ll take the years in a startup setting.
Swift has 3 down, 80+ REC upside. He needs to clean up the drops, but I expect that to happen. He runs great routes and has good hands. That on top of being a good athlete, having a good frame, and strong instincts as a runner. He was a big time recruit, broke out as a freshman, and put up numbers in the SEC. Top 35 pick in the draft, considered by many to be the best back in a strong class.
My back of the napkin math suggests that he should be more valuable than safer, older options like Henry, that the reward justifies the risk. And based on his profile, he’s a safe asset to hold. His market value is insulated by the factors that give him name value. There will be exit opportunities for owners who start to sour or grow impatient.
That said, I understand the counter argument. He’s the kind of risk I like to take, but he is a sizable risk at his ADP. I wouldn’t fault anyone for preferring safer options like Henry, Jacobs, Hopkins, Thomas, etc.
Boston
Footballguy
I have both of them and I don't think they are close...Chark has a lot of talent and with Lawrence on the way he should be on the upswing but if you look at the WR landscape there are a lot of Chark-level type of WRs out there...on the flipside TE is pretty barren and Waller is a difference-maker that can help win you weeks...I know on my team Chark was riding the pine during the playoffs (even with injuries to my team) while Waller dominated in the semis and was very good in the finals while my opponents were getting minimal TE production...so, my long-winded answer is I think Waller is worth significantly more.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Personally I view those older options in particular as greater risk but I don't want to get bogged down on that but I did want to ask you what you view as the risk with Swift?
For me the only risk I have and it's fairly small is who will be his new coach and OC.. Saying that's it's hard for me to see it being worse then what he just had, which is why I said the risk was small, but that's the one piece of the puzzle for him I'd like to see filled in before I get a little more aggressive making offers for him though I don't actually think I"m going to be successful trying to buy him but I won't bore everyone with those details. But I'd just say for starters right now my first offer I am intending to make is Dalvin Cook for him, but I don't think I'm going to get an accept.
I've not done rankings so I can't say were I'd have him ranked but what spurred this discussion was his placement in the mock draft ADP people listed and I know I had him ABOVE some of those players. When I have said things such as I'm surprised at some of the takes on him I was not trying to be rude or disregarding others, I'm legit truly surprised. He's everything I"m looking for in a RB.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
At the highest level, the risk is that he could bust. I like what I saw, on the whole. But I don’t know we’re completely out of the woods there.
At a more granular level, his hands need to improve - and what happens if they don’t? Is he scheme independent? Will he ever be trusted to carry the ball 17+ times a game? How will he hold up, if so? What does the offense look like next year if Stafford and Golladay are gone? What was the deal with the migraines?
There is less projection needed for guys like Henry. You’re getting first round startup value for a couple seasons, pending something unforeseen. The drop from that to say 16 PPG - what would be a solid season for Swift - could easily mean the difference between making or missing the playoffs - or more.
I don’t think we’re far off on Swift. I really like him. And it’s one thing to put your rankings down on paper and another to act on them. There are only about 5-7 guys I know I’d trade him for. And I don’t say that just to hedge my take. That’s just kind of how it works out; that’s why I use tiers.
Thanks and I for sure don't share those concerns or think they are to minimal to worry about, view most of them as sort you could cut and paste to just about any player. Migraines would probably be the one concern or risk I have and it's not big but fair enough to say it's at least a mild concern and certainly was an issue this last year.
As for the PPG if he puts up 16 I'd be extremely disappointed. The 4 games before the bye his snap count was 20.75 a game. They came out of the bye with a plan to increase his role and he averaged 35 snaps with a low of 29 and put up 17 PPG . That's basically a healthy floor to me and when I view him that's pretty much how I view him, a 17+ PPG guy.
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The reason I posted is because we disagree on their "assets". IMO very few if any teams have more, so they don't need to use their best bullets on a RB and I wouldn't expect them to. However, they could easily use their 3rd or 4th pick to land one of the best RBs in the draft, which would torpedo Gaskin's value. Even a 3rd or 4th rounder (which is their 5th or 6th picks, possibly lower if they trade down in the 1st) would put a serious damper on it. Their relatively high cap space gives them an advantage over most teams if they choose to go that route as well.
Looks like we also disagree on the state of the team. They were 10-6 and the best team to miss the playoffs (better than a couple who did make it in the NFC), and precisely because they are ahead of schedule and they have so many assets this offseason IMO their window opens in 2021, not 2022. I can't imagine they're going to approach this offseason with an eye on 2022 over making a run in 2021, and even if they did drafting or signing a young RB would help both anyway.
MAC_32
Footballguy
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
This right here. I thought the MIA FO was absolutely out of their mind trading so much talent for draft capital but they have certainly trended in the right direction. I expect them to be opportunistic in this year's draft and to fill positions around Tua to give him as much a chance of success in year 2 as possible.
My point is Miami does have a treasure trove of assets and they will be focused on competing next year. How aggressively they pursue a RB will almost entirely come down to how they feel about Gaskin, it won't be because they don't have enough assets or they are focused on 2022.
In any event, happy to agree to disagree.
Miami's picks will be huge for Tua. Imagine
#3 overall: Sewell.
#18: Pitts or next best WR.
#36: Etienne or Najee
northern exposure
Footballguy
What is Terry McLaurin's value in a 12 tm Superflex? Owner has suggested Logan Thomas and 2021 mid 5th and 6th round rookie picks will get the deal done.
0.75 ppr for WR, 1.25 ppr for TE.
0.75 ppr for WR, 1.25 ppr for TE.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
His value should be waaaaayyyyy more than that even in TE premium. Logan Thomas is a 30 year old converted QB who benefitted for Alex Smith's pop gun arm.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I hope you’re right, but am less confident. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him getting ~50% of the snaps next season. Not so for Cook or Henry.
robb
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
That's what I thought. The initial trade offer was Salvon Ahmed and Jabrill Peppers for Logan Thomas and my 5th rounder. I rejected it and countered....and this is where we ended up.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This might be the easiest question to answer that I have seen someone post around here in awhile.
Its a lay up. Take McClaurin and send the guy a fruit cake next year.
I would keep ROJO, looks legit good and I think just on verge of breaking out. Yes Vaughn is there but Fournette and McCoy won't be.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
A lot more.Waller owner in my PPR league wanted my 2021 1st + Engram. I offered it & he rejected...WTF? Then I offered Golladay + Engram & rejected. No counter. So I have NFC what would be a good offer at this point. I'm not going to offer a massive overpay.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I hate all things Packers but he is probably worth a 1s round pick even at his age. If you can get him for less than that its a bargain, and you might be able to because of his age.
