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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Fixed

21 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

I think 2 first round rookie picks is too much for him.  That’s what I was referring to with my post.  I don’t see his current production as being worth two firsts. 

Yeah I hear ya. I was saying I'd probably sell for that. Doubt I'll find it. I'll probably hold and hope for the best. 

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20 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

There are a lot of teams that have been devoid of playmakers over the last few years.  I can't recall one that ever had worse fantasy passing numbers come out of it.  I mean Cam's passing line looks like it's from 1930.  2500 yards with 8 TDs and 10 INTs in 15 games.

I realize he ran quite a few TDs in but that doesn't help a fantasy TE.  166 yards per game passing and 8 passing TDs in 15 games in 2020 is remarkable.

Yes indeed, remarkably bad. For comparison, of QB's that played at least 15 games since 2000 forward, Cam's passing numbers are worse than David Carr 2002, Jon Kitna 2000, Kerry Collins 2008, Brad Johnson 2006, and Vinny Testaverde 2001. The only guys who put up worse numbers are names like Kyle Boller, David Carr (again), Vince Young,  Michael Vick, Mark Sanchez, Jamarcus Russell, etc.

What's also interesting? The next guy on the list above Vinny is Lamar Jackson 2020 with only 2757 yards (although he did have 26 TD's.)

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NE really lacks talent on offense, but Newton's poor play began years ago.  He's had 1 good year as a passer out of the last 5.

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6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Mixon is a sell.

I own Mixon and I'd like to sell, but the value isn't there right now. You'd be basically dumping him for RB2 prices (maybe people in other leagues are more enthusiastic about him but there's not much interest in mine).

I'm not as high on him like I used to be - he's super frustrating to own - always dinged up, plenty of mediocre games, loses passing game work (at least to now), but having said that he could be a RB1 just on volume any year if he plays a full season. Even if he's only averaging 4ypc, that's pretty valuable given how hard it is to find a workhorse. I'd like to sell him for a young WR, but honestly I don't have a need at WR in most leagues (there is such a glut of options right now).

I guess what I'm saying is he's a hold and hope that he starts the season well next year and you can cash out. That's what I'm thinking at this point anyway. 

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54 minutes ago, AJF07 said:

Similar value for

RBs: Kenyan Drake, Ronald Jones, Melvin Gordon, James Conner
TEs: Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram

Half of those guys are on my roster lol. Not sure if I would move him for Drake w/the uncertainty.

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2 hours ago, Boone22 said:

Just for clarity.  When you reference play out his contract which ends in 2021, you mean Bernard right?  Because Mixon is signed through 2024.  

Yes Gio

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I roster Newton so I watched him. I'll be stunned if he has a starting job next year. I'll really be flummoxed.

eta* And just like that, WAS is mentioned as a potential stopgap situation. 

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1 hour ago, RushHour said:

I own Mixon and I'd like to sell, but the value isn't there right now. You'd be basically dumping him for RB2 prices (maybe people in other leagues are more enthusiastic about him but there's not much interest in mine).

I'm not as high on him like I used to be - he's super frustrating to own - always dinged up, plenty of mediocre games, loses passing game work (at least to now), but having said that he could be a RB1 just on volume any year if he plays a full season. Even if he's only averaging 4ypc, that's pretty valuable given how hard it is to find a workhorse. I'd like to sell him for a young WR, but honestly I don't have a need at WR in most leagues (there is such a glut of options right now).

I guess what I'm saying is he's a hold and hope that he starts the season well next year and you can cash out. That's what I'm thinking at this point anyway. 

Right on. Just because he's not the top 5 RB you may have envisioned,  doesn't mean you have to sell. Lower your expectations to a high RB2 and, ideally,  enjoy the solid production for a few. years. He's not a true bust. And you may miss him when he's gone. 

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19 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Shrugs. That's what people told me last year too.

And this year I was able to transition to Justin Herbert and draft Taylor with my first rounder.

in all seriousness, this was actually a bounce back year value wise for Aaron, as the Pack had been transitioning to more of a run based offense.  Still, he's one more year older now.

In my league, we actually have a thing called the Rodgers rate.  I can get Aaron for a surprisingly great rate.  in fact, anyone in my league can get the same great rate of a 2nd rounder or later.

Edited by DropKick
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What might it take to pry Derrick Henry from you in a non-PPR league?

Dobbins or Jacobs or Swift plus 1 first round pick?  2 first round picks?

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5 hours ago, Spike said:

What might it take to pry Derrick Henry from you in a non-PPR league?

Dobbins or Jacobs or Swift plus 1 first round pick?  2 first round picks?

Definitely not 2 picks. Even 1 might be steep given the age difference, but I don't play non-PPR and that probably factors in a little. 

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On 1/6/2021 at 8:40 PM, DropKick said:

And this year I was able to transition to Justin Herbert and draft Taylor with my first rounder.

in all seriousness, this was actually a bounce back year value wise for Aaron, as the Pack had been transitioning to more of a run based offense.  Still, he's one more year older now.

In my league, we actually have a thing called the Rodgers rate.  I can get Aaron for a surprisingly great rate.  in fact, anyone in my league can get the same great rate of a 2nd rounder or later.

Yeah I know it was a bounce back year. He hasn't done this well statistically since 2016 and there were very good reasons such as focus on the running game to think he wouldn't return to that level of performance. I enjoy listening to people say he is washed up I just don't see it.

In retrospect Aaron Jones had an unusually high TD rate. He didn't score as many TD in 2020 and Rodgers threw for a lot more TD again being the main difference.

Even at 38 I can see Rodgers having another 2-3 top 12 seasons and this year showed he can still have a top 3 type performance as well.

If you can get him for a 2nd round pick seems like a good deal to me even though I do not want any parts of him for illogical reasons.

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On 1/6/2021 at 10:07 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

His buying price last year was probably more like a late 2nd/early 3rd though so that was a different conversation. 

I think that's kind of the thing with these guys like Rodgers/Wilson. They kind of rotate between great years, mediocre years, and QB2 years and if you like them there will almost always be an opportunity to buy lower in the very near future. 

Even this year there were 12 qbs that either outscored Rodgers in ppg or finished within 2pts of Rodgers in ppg. Basically he had 26ppg and qb12 had 24ppg. If I were spending a 1st to grab one of those 12 it wouldn't be on (by far) the 2nd oldest one of them.

It would be one thing if Rodgers were putting up 26ppg every year and were much more likely to do it again next year but this is the first time he's even come close to that number since 2016. I think it's just as likely he settles back into the 20-22ppg range next year at which point as a 38 year old he will once again be extremely cheap to acquire. 

ETA: It's more like 11 QBs with 24+ ppg as I didn't notice one of the 12 in the list was Marcus Mariota who only played 1 game.

hmm what scoring system are you using?

according to PFR Rodgers has never been a QB 2. He has always been in the top 12 QB if he plays more than 9 games. He had two seasons shortened by injury, otherwise he has been a top 12 QB. There is something to be said for that consistency and you seem to be suggesting that he hasn't been.

As far as points per game in my league he has averaged 30 per game. Qb 12 (Kirk Cousins) scored 24 points per game. The margin is much higher than you state, although 2 points would be significant as well, just not as significant as 6 points per game.

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I think both of you have really good points. Really does depend on your league. Rodgers finished overall at QB3 in my six-point passing league. He finished 110 points ahead of QB12, Ben Roethlisberger. That puts him at about 7 PPG/game ahead of Ben.

I will say that although the point about him having some close to average years since 2016 sounds right, he was QB10 in 2019 and QB6 in 2018. Just from the peanut gallery. I'm not sure that's first round good, but this year was certainly impressive. Where I agree with FreeBaGel is that he's likely to regress rather than improve upon this performance at his advanced age and with this coaching staff that seems to like to run the football more than they like passing it. 

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39 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Who is the one to roster in PPR: Gallup or Mooney?

Is Cooper a cowboy next season? Is ARob a Bear next season?

I’m buying up all the Gallup. The only reason he isn’t the #1 in Dallas is because of 2 reasons. 

1. Lamb was available when he shouldn’t have been for them to draft

2. Dak got hurt

He has an alpha profile and he’s looked dominant at times. I have no clue how long he’s going to be buried on a depth chart but he’ll get his chance in a year or 2 in free agency. They gave Lamb 88 so he’s long term and Coopers contract seems hard to get rid of no? 
 

I would be buying Mooney too but I’d probably do it closer to the rookie draft when picks fo up in value. Someone will be on the clock and see a guy they must get in the 3rd and I think you can pry Mooney away there. He was what like the 3rd most productive rookie this year or something? 
 

I know I’m not exactly answering the question but I like both, Gallup more so long term. He’s a true #1 and I’m just waiting him out of Dallas. 

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20 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I’m buying up all the Gallup. The only reason he isn’t the #1 in Dallas is because of 2 reasons. 

1. Lamb was available when he shouldn’t have been for them to draft

2. Dak got hurt

He has an alpha profile and he’s looked dominant at times. I have no clue how long he’s going to be buried on a depth chart but he’ll get his chance in a year or 2 in free agency. They gave Lamb 88 so he’s long term and Coopers contract seems hard to get rid of no? 
 

I would be buying Mooney too but I’d probably do it closer to the rookie draft when picks fo up in value. Someone will be on the clock and see a guy they must get in the 3rd and I think you can pry Mooney away there. He was what like the 3rd most productive rookie this year or something? 
 

I know I’m not exactly answering the question but I like both, Gallup more so long term. He’s a true #1 and I’m just waiting him out of Dallas. 

How long is the wait though?

reason I ask is because I own Mooney and the Gallup owner offered me Gallup for Mooney straight up. I guess at worst, it's a lateral move for me if I take the deal.

 

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11 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

How long is the wait though?

reason I ask is because I own Mooney and the Gallup owner offered me Gallup for Mooney straight up. I guess at worst, it's a lateral move for me if I take the deal.

 

The wait is 2022 and even then he might not get in a good spot in free agency. I believe in him way more than I do Mooney but it’s your call. Gallup will still be serviceable until then though. 

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3 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Who is the one to roster in PPR: Gallup or Mooney?

Is Cooper a cowboy next season? Is ARob a Bear next season?

Gallup for sure. And I say that with Mooney being my second favorite hidden gem I unearthed in this year's rookie drafts (behind Robinson).

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48 minutes ago, The Captain said:

Price check on Davante Adams in PPR.  What would it take to sell him? What would you pay? 
 

 

I think the big question is is the team that has him a contender or not because how they look at Adams will depend heavily on that...I'm fortunate enough to own Adams and be a contender and the only way I would deal him is if it was a legit overpay...not only does it have to be an overpay but it can't be a deal where it dings my starting line-up too much...I think that can get lost when looking at dealing such an elite player like Adams, you may get a great haul but your starting lineup takes a big step backwards...so that means (for me) one of the pieces has to be a WR that is a decent amount younger than Adams and can get near the ballpark of what Adams gives you so you're looking at something from the Jefferson, AJB level of player...after that I would need at least another piece that has a chance to help my starting line-up or a few pieces that dramatically improve my depth...looking at that type of return it may not make sense for the other guy...if I wasn't a contender it would be easier to figure out a deal because I would just be concerned about the overpay and not the short term effect on my starting line-up meaning players like Lamb or Aiyuk become far more attractive because I'm playing a little bit more of the long game.

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3 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

How long is the wait though?

reason I ask is because I own Mooney and the Gallup owner offered me Gallup for Mooney straight up. I guess at worst, it's a lateral move for me if I take the deal.

 

Contract expires in 2021. Doubt they’ll be able to afford to re-sign him.

2022 is the year he could be a true #1 on another team. 

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2 hours ago, Boston said:

I think the big question is is the team that has him a contender or not because how they look at Adams will depend heavily on that...I'm fortunate enough to own Adams and be a contender and the only way I would deal him is if it was a legit overpay...not only does it have to be an overpay but it can't be a deal where it dings my starting line-up too much...I think that can get lost when looking at dealing such an elite player like Adams, you may get a great haul but your starting lineup takes a big step backwards...so that means (for me) one of the pieces has to be a WR that is a decent amount younger than Adams and can get near the ballpark of what Adams gives you so you're looking at something from the Jefferson, AJB level of player...after that I would need at least another piece that has a chance to help my starting line-up or a few pieces that dramatically improve my depth...looking at that type of return it may not make sense for the other guy...if I wasn't a contender it would be easier to figure out a deal because I would just be concerned about the overpay and not the short term effect on my starting line-up meaning players like Lamb or Aiyuk become far more attractive because I'm playing a little bit more of the long game.

Love this analysis. Thank you. I have a contending team that was second highest scoring team...in large part due to Adams, but his week 15 “down” week cost me the finals...which I would have won in part because of Adams big week 16. Im a bit long in the tooth at WR with Julio and and Thielen behind Adams in my line up and no picks next year so the debate is whether to make another run with Adams and the old guys or sell Adams for a youth infusion that will hurt a bit now but could help in 2 years. Appreciate your insight.

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13 minutes ago, The Captain said:

Love this analysis. Thank you. I have a contending team that was second highest scoring team...in large part due to Adams, but his week 15 “down” week cost me the finals...which I would have won in part because of Adams big week 16. Im a bit long in the tooth at WR with Julio and and Thielen behind Adams in my line up and no picks next year so the debate is whether to make another run with Adams and the old guys or sell Adams for a youth infusion that will hurt a bit now but could help in 2 years. Appreciate your insight.

You are in an interesting spot...the first thing I would do before I would think about moving Adams is see what I can get for Julio and Thielen because the clock is ticking on them...I think with those two you can just worry about the return and not positions if you are getting any non-picks back...after you move them you can decide whether you can still win with Adams or it's time for the full rebuild.

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2 hours ago, Boston said:

You are in an interesting spot...the first thing I would do before I would think about moving Adams is see what I can get for Julio and Thielen because the clock is ticking on them...I think with those two you can just worry about the return and not positions if you are getting any non-picks back...after you move them you can decide whether you can still win with Adams or it's time for the full rebuild.

Yeah that was my first thought but there a lot of savvy owners in this league so I’m guessing the return would be pretty small. For the return id get I’m thinking I might as well go for it and ride this til the wheels fall off. 

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How much more do you value QB's in 6 points per Passing TD league?  1 QB.

The last 2 years, QB has become an absolute chore for me.  Too much Jared Goff.  I got my Ryan on the cheap at the start of this season, and through the ups and downs, I made the playoffs, but abandoned him for Trubisky when it mattered.  I drafted Tua, but I don't want to rely on him going into 2021.  I won, I'll pick 12th, I suspect there's a good chance Lawrence is gone before me, but I'll have a good chance at Fields/Wilson.  

I'm stacked at WR:  Hill/Ridley/McLaurin/Lamb/Higgins/Mims/Hardman.  I thought about offering up like McLaurin for Jackson.  Too much to give for a QB?

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7 hours ago, jm192 said:

How much more do you value QB's in 6 points per Passing TD league?  1 QB.

The last 2 years, QB has become an absolute chore for me.  Too much Jared Goff.  I got my Ryan on the cheap at the start of this season, and through the ups and downs, I made the playoffs, but abandoned him for Trubisky when it mattered.  I drafted Tua, but I don't want to rely on him going into 2021.  I won, I'll pick 12th, I suspect there's a good chance Lawrence is gone before me, but I'll have a good chance at Fields/Wilson.  

I'm stacked at WR:  Hill/Ridley/McLaurin/Lamb/Higgins/Mims/Hardman.  I thought about offering up like McLaurin for Jackson.  Too much to give for a QB?

People will bring stats to say otherwise but even in 1QB I think the top end QBs have a decent amount more value than in standard 4pt and obviously even more as the league gets bigger. It’s just such a disadvantage to not have a guy who puts up 30-35 guaranteed per week and can blow up for 50. That’s my experience anyway. It’s all very well for people to say just get guys like Stafford or Matt Ryan cheap but those teams get blown away by the teams with Mahomes, Allen, Murray etc.

As for the trade, I like McLaurin but think it’s ok to move him, especially given the depth at WR. He’s great to have but you can replace those stats I think. I just wouldn’t go after Lamar if there are other options like Herbert available.

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On 1/9/2021 at 7:19 AM, Helaire-ious said:

Who is the one to roster in PPR: Gallup or Mooney?

Is Cooper a cowboy next season? Is ARob a Bear next season?

As a Bears fan (obviously), I love Mooney.  I think he was an absolute steal for the Bears.  That said, there will be upheaval in Chicago this season because of the salary cap situation, QB situation, and likely FO changes.  That dampens my valuation on him because the move from WR2/3 to WR1 (assuming AR12 isn't resigned) is often difficult and he is unproven against the leagues CB1s.  I'd stash him if you can, but I wouldn't expect results from him in 2021.

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1 hour ago, InDitkaWeTrust said:

As a Bears fan (obviously), I love Mooney.  I think he was an absolute steal for the Bears.  That said, there will be upheaval in Chicago this season because of the salary cap situation, QB situation, and likely FO changes.  That dampens my valuation on him because the move from WR2/3 to WR1 (assuming AR12 isn't resigned) is often difficult and he is unproven against the leagues CB1s.  I'd stash him if you can, but I wouldn't expect results from him in 2021.

I traded him for Gallup FWIW

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13 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I traded him for Gallup FWIW

I think you did really good but I'm also apparently lower then just about anyone on Mooney. Just not seeing a someone of fantasy value with him.

You asked earlier about when Gallup won't be the #3WR and it's possible as soon as next season, not likely but possible. Cooper's contract was structured in a way he is very easy to trade after one year, very easy to cut or trade after 2 years. If Dallas ran into cap issues maybe they are forced to move Amari now, but there seems little to no chance they would pay Gallup after the 2021 season and retain Amari.  So 2021 should at worst be last year the 3 WR's all play together, and then one of Amari or Gallup has to go and my guess is they'd keep the one that is most cost effective and that's probably Gallup.

I would add  I own Amari on a few teams and am operating on idea he's got one more year at most in Dallas.

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On 1/9/2021 at 10:49 AM, AJF07 said:

Contract expires in 2021. Doubt they’ll be able to afford to re-sign him.

2022 is the year he could be a true #1 on another team. 

Gallop? A teams number one? Come on, maybe a teams 2nd wr at best.

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On 1/9/2021 at 8:44 AM, Boston said:

I think the big question is is the team that has him a contender or not because how they look at Adams will depend heavily on that...I'm fortunate enough to own Adams and be a contender and the only way I would deal him is if it was a legit overpay...not only does it have to be an overpay but it can't be a deal where it dings my starting line-up too much...I think that can get lost when looking at dealing such an elite player like Adams, you may get a great haul but your starting lineup takes a big step backwards...so that means (for me) one of the pieces has to be a WR that is a decent amount younger than Adams and can get near the ballpark of what Adams gives you so you're looking at something from the Jefferson, AJB level of player...after that I would need at least another piece that has a chance to help my starting line-up or a few pieces that dramatically improve my depth...looking at that type of return it may not make sense for the other guy...if I wasn't a contender it would be easier to figure out a deal because I would just be concerned about the overpay and not the short term effect on my starting line-up meaning players like Lamb or Aiyuk become far more attractive because I'm playing a little bit more of the long game.

Agreed. I posted something similar about Henry and Kamara but these just aren’t guys you can realistically buy in most leagues if a contender is holding them, because of that need to replace starting lineup points combined with them being worth more to the contender than anyone else. You can package picks and juicy prospects to grab them if they happen to be on a rebuilder, but otherwise you’re likely better off finding another target

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8 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Patrick Mahomes 1QB leagues, what's he worth in picks or startup value? Where does he go? 1.08? 4th round startup? 

I think he can go as early as 1.1...he is 25 years old and the safest bet for consistent high-end fantasy production and has a very good chance to maintain that status for a good decade or more...I'm sure there are some anti-QB people who would never do this but to not have to worry about a position for a prolonged period of time as well as going into pretty much every game you play with a positional advantage is very appealing to me...the fact you don't have to use other resources on this position for future drafts if you don't want to is another bonus...there are many ways to build successful Dynasty teams but I am an Owner that wants high quality starting QBs and TEs because you can really have an advantage there but just as importantly I can now focus all my efforts on building my RB and WR units because as we know (especially at RB) they tend to have dramatic changes year-to-year. 

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Patrick Mahomes 1QB leagues, what's he worth in picks or startup value? Where does he go? 1.08? 4th round startup? 

I’m more inclined to target Allen, Watson, or Murray, as they’ll cost half as much. But I’d say Mahomes is worth ~1.03 in 6 pt, 1/20 leagues and 1.07 in 4 pt, 1/25 leagues. 2nd to 4th round in startups. 

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22 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m more inclined to target Allen, Watson, or Murray, as they’ll cost half as much. But I’d say Mahomes is worth ~1.03 in 6 pt, 1/20 leagues and 1.07 in 4 pt, 1/25 leagues. 2nd to 4th round in startups. 

Leads me into another question then. What about Lawrence? In rookie drafts I imagine he'll go somewhere in that same range. 1.04-1.08 in traditional 1QB leagues. Someone like @Bostonmight take him in that range because he likes elite level QB's. Lawrence is exactly that. If Mahomes is worth the 1.03, Lawrence is the 1.06? If someone would take Lawrence with the 1.01 in a traditional league, Mahomes is worth what? 1.01 and 1.08? Seems relatively high to me for a 1QB league. 

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34 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Leads me into another question then. What about Lawrence? In rookie drafts I imagine he'll go somewhere in that same range. 1.04-1.08 in traditional 1QB leagues. Someone like @Bostonmight take him in that range because he likes elite level QB's. Lawrence is exactly that. If Mahomes is worth the 1.03, Lawrence is the 1.06? If someone would take Lawrence with the 1.01 in a traditional league, Mahomes is worth what? 1.01 and 1.08? Seems relatively high to me for a 1QB league. 

In QB friendly scoring leagues, I’d take Lawrence ~1.09.  Early second, if not so friendly. QB is deep right now. I really like Lawrence, but I wouldn’t reach for him in drafts. 

ETA: In past years I could see spending a top 5 pick on Lawrence. But he’s only a mid-to-low dynasty QB1, given the young QB talent currently in the league.

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10 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

In QB friendly scoring leagues, I’d take Lawrence ~1.09.  Early second, if not so friendly. QB is deep right now. I really like Lawrence, but I wouldn’t reach for him in drafts. 

I'm not so certain that it is. The variance between the #1 (Rodgers) and #12 (Ryan) QBs in my 6pt/td Zealots league was a whopping 143 points. Included in that list are Brady, Tannehill, and Cousins, which when you throw in Rodgers all had career years. And Wilson, whose production fell off the table.

I think it's harder than ever to acquire a good, consistently scoring, young QB.

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11 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm not so certain that it is. The variance between the #1 (Rodgers) and #12 (Ryan) QBs in my 6pt/td Zealots league was a whopping 143 points. Included in that list are Brady, Tannehill, and Cousins, which when you throw in Rodgers all had career years. And Wilson, whose production fell off the table.

I think it's harder than ever to acquire a good, consistently scoring, young QB.

Yes I agree. I think with how high QB can be these days with much more production, it's quite an illusion. You can find a serviceable guy, but it is a drop off and far less consistent.

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm not so certain that it is. The variance between the #1 (Rodgers) and #12 (Ryan) QBs in my 6pt/td Zealots league was a whopping 143 points. Included in that list are Brady, Tannehill, and Cousins, which when you throw in Rodgers all had career years. And Wilson, whose production fell off the table.

I think it's harder than ever to acquire a good, consistently scoring, young QB.

I don’t like using QB12 as the baseline. The distribution is pretty flat until QB10 or so. 

From a dynasty value perspective, there 8 really strong options, 9 if we include Lawrence. There is plenty of upside outside of those 9, too - Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Fields, Wilson, and Lance. Then the older, and/or steady guys  - Rodgers, Tannehill, Baker, Brady, etc. I honestly don’t recall a better or deeper crop of QBs than what we have today.

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5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I don’t like using QB12 as the baseline. The distribution is pretty flat until QB10 or so. 

From a dynasty value perspective, there 8 really strong options, 9 if we include Lawrence. There is plenty of upside outside of those 9, too - Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Fields, Wilson, and Lance. Then the older, and/or steady guys  - Rodgers, Tannehill, Baker, Brady, etc. I honestly don’t recall a better or deeper crop of QBs than what we have today.

But the question is what you'd pay for a top guy. There are guys with upside - many that you mentioned - but can't be considered "top". 

You could try and bet on the older/steady guys possibly repeating next year, but then that's different than getting one of the top guys too. 

If you're looking for a near guarantee, there just aren't that many options. Makes me feel even better that I stole Watson away from a guy for Tua & a 2nd. :lookatme!:

 

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I don’t like using QB12 as the baseline. The distribution is pretty flat until QB10 or so. 

From a dynasty value perspective, there 8 really strong options, 9 if we include Lawrence. There is plenty of upside outside of those 9, too - Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Fields, Wilson, and Lance. Then the older, and/or steady guys  - Rodgers, Tannehill, Baker, Brady, etc. I honestly don’t recall a better or deeper crop of QBs than what we have today.

I think the upside guys will tell 2021 and 2022's story. I also think it will be very difficult to buy anyone from the top 8. Why would their owner move them? Never say never, but I cannot imagine anyone could offer me enough to consider moving Watson. I think you need to be in a league in which someone already has 2 of them. Or 1 of them + Rodgers/Tannehill/Brady then try to buy the vet. Right now anyway. 

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16 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

But the question is what you'd pay for a top guy. There are guys with upside, but can't be considered "top" - many that you mentioned. 

You could try and bet on the older/steady guys possibly repeating next year, but then that's different than getting one of the top guys too. 

If you're looking for a near guarantee, there just aren't that many options. Makes me feel even better that I stole Watson away from a guy for Tua & a 2nd. :lookatme!:

There are 8 top guys, 9 if we count Lawrence. Meaning the average team in your league has one. (Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Herbert, Dak, Wilson, Lawrence.)

Those who don’t have a top guy are likely getting by with older production and/or upside that could join the list above next season. 

Of course the top options provide an advantage. But not compared to other positions. 

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

There are 8 top guys, 9 if we count Lawrence. Meaning the average team in your league has one. (Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Herbert, Dak, Wilson, Lawrence.)

Those who don’t have a top guy are likely getting by older production and/or upside that could join the list above next season. 

Of course the top options provide an advantage. But not compared to other positions. 

But it doesn't work that way. It almost never happens that there's one good QB per team - they're not evenly distributed. 

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

But it doesn't work that way. It almost never happens that there's one good QB per team - they're not evenly distributed. 

More so than any of the flex-eligible positions. There’s little incentive to hold two of the top guys. In my experience, owners are eager to deal their surplus QB value. 

I’ll grant that it’s hard to land one of the top options if you don’t have one and are set on owning one of them. But you can get by without them and upside is cheap. That just about all of the top guys were 2nd or 3rd round rookie picks is proof of that. You can wait until the 10th round and still leave a startup with Tannehill, Hurts, and Lance. A solid starting piece and two young guys with top 5 upside. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that, but if that’s worst case scenario, it makes sense to let value fall to you, rather than forcing it.

Just my opinion, of course.

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24 minutes ago, wlwiles said:

For a data point - I saw Mahomes traded last week in a 12 team PPR, 1QB league.  

A gives Mahomes and '21 3.06

B gives Deshaun Watson, David Montgomery, and '21 2.02

 

That’s a bad trade for the new Mahomes owner, IMO.

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