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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)

scothawk said:
Dak is unsigned. Its going to be interesting.
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Topic for another thread, but yeah, wow what a terrible decision to have that much money being handed to you and holding out for just a little more, and now who really knows if not only can he be what he was but can he ever even play at all.  There IS that possibility

 
ghostguy123 said:
Topic for another thread, but yeah, wow what a terrible decision to have that much money being handed to you and holding out for just a little more, and now who really knows if not only can he be what he was but can he ever even play at all.  There IS that possibility
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Perhaps as you said a topic for another thread but I believe had Dak known he'd suffer that injury he'd not have changed a thing in his decision making. I don't believe there are any concerns about his recovery or ability to get the same kind of contract offer from Dallas or someone else as before the injury.

 
menobrown said:
Perhaps as you said a topic for another thread but I believe had Dak known he'd suffer that injury he'd not have changed a thing in his decision making. I don't believe there are any concerns about his recovery or ability to get the same kind of contract offer from Dallas or someone else as before the injury.
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Maybe, maybe not, but my point with some of the athletes is how much do you really need??  When you have say a guaranteed 50 millio do you really need to hold out for maybe an extra 5 when so many things can go wrong, such as breaking your leg in half like Alex Smith, Bridgewater, or a career altering concussion, random car accident.........just saying.

 
Helaire-ious said:
What sort of 2021 1st rounder is Golladay worth & is it worth moving him for said pick based on the incoming rookies?
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Late 1 is probably fair market value but I'd personally only consider paying that if i was in win now team that needed WR depth/help right now.  You know you got a good player but you also know he'll already be turning 28 next season. I'm not sure his skill set is very conducive to high targets so not sure he's got a lot of growth in his game. A new team/system/QB can obviously impact him but I'm seeing 28 year old solid mid to high end WR2.

As we are looking at another deep WR class I'd rather take my shots on a younger WR or other position.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Maybe, maybe not, but my point with some of the athletes is how much do you really need??  When you have say a guaranteed 50 millio do you really need to hold out for maybe an extra 5 when so many things can go wrong, such as breaking your leg in half like Alex Smith, Bridgewater, or a career altering concussion, random car accident.........just saying.
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I don't really disagree with that. Big decision athletes face all the time, personally I'd never have the confidence to turn that money down and risk it.  I just think the media and I guess people in general are always to quick to assume a big injury costs players money heading into FA.

FWIW on Dak, I've heard many people report locally that the APY was not the hangup but the years with Dallas wanting to make the contract longer then Dak wanted, at least at that price. But that still comes down to money, I doubt Dak would have cared if he was locked up for 10 years if the money was higher.

 
What are your thoughts on two, end of bench guys?

Bryan Edwards - By all accounts, he had a great camp. He gets hurt, then is barely heard from. He’s in a offense that didn’t make great use of Ruggs and is flowing through Agholor. Opportunity may be there, but will he take advantage?  Probably WR3 on his team next season  

Van Jefferson - He “flashed” more than Edwards, but will be behind Kupp, Woods, and maybe even Reynolds for the foreseeable future. Best case is that Reynolds moves on and he takes the WR3 spot. However, he seems to be a completely different type of WR than Reynolds and more of a Kupp replacement. 
 

I hate carrying “roster cloggers” and I’m thinking these guys are exactly that. If you were to hold one, who would it be?

 
Blick said:
What are your thoughts on two, end of bench guys?

Bryan Edwards - By all accounts, he had a great camp. He gets hurt, then is barely heard from. He’s in a offense that didn’t make great use of Ruggs and is flowing through Agholor. Opportunity may be there, but will he take advantage?  Probably WR3 on his team next season  

Van Jefferson - He “flashed” more than Edwards, but will be behind Kupp, Woods, and maybe even Reynolds for the foreseeable future. Best case is that Reynolds moves on and he takes the WR3 spot. However, he seems to be a completely different type of WR than Reynolds and more of a Kupp replacement. 

I hate carrying “roster cloggers” and I’m thinking these guys are exactly that. If you were to hold one, who would it be?
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Kind of depends on whether or not Agholor and Reynolds leave in free agency. I would think both made themselves a lot of money this year and are likely to leave. 

If both do, then the one I think I'd rather keep is Van Jefferson. Gruden's offense sucks. 

 
Blick said:
What are your thoughts on two, end of bench guys?

Bryan Edwards - By all accounts, he had a great camp. He gets hurt, then is barely heard from. He’s in a offense that didn’t make great use of Ruggs and is flowing through Agholor. Opportunity may be there, but will he take advantage?  Probably WR3 on his team next season  

Van Jefferson - He “flashed” more than Edwards, but will be behind Kupp, Woods, and maybe even Reynolds for the foreseeable future. Best case is that Reynolds moves on and he takes the WR3 spot. However, he seems to be a completely different type of WR than Reynolds and more of a Kupp replacement. 
 

I hate carrying “roster cloggers” and I’m thinking these guys are exactly that. If you were to hold one, who would it be?
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Love some Bryan Edwards. He's 3x the prospect that Jefferson is and I'm betting on that talent to overcome things. That organization is very high on him, and his injury derailed his rookie campaign a bit. The organization seems to be in some disarray though so long term offense might not look as appealing. 

Jefferson sucks and I'm fine saying that. He's a NFL teams WR4 and he isn't any better other than a spot fill in. He's the definition of a roster clogger to me. Bad profile and overdrafted. Kupp is signed for 3 more years and Woods is signed for 5 more years. His last game here of 6/46/1 look like a great sell window and I'd happily flip him for any type of 2nd, or use him as a package piece. 

I don't hate the idea of trading Edwards as a package piece either. The lack of productivity and the fact Agholor filled a role instead of Edwards is a bit concerning. I'd prefer to keep him because of the talent profile and I'd get rid of Jefferson. It's not a difficult choice for me. 

That's just one guy's opinion though. 

 
Zyphros said:
Love some Bryan Edwards. He's 3x the prospect that Jefferson is and I'm betting on that talent to overcome things. That organization is very high on him, and his injury derailed his rookie campaign a bit. The organization seems to be in some disarray though so long term offense might not look as appealing. 

Jefferson sucks and I'm fine saying that. He's a NFL teams WR4 and he isn't any better other than a spot fill in. He's the definition of a roster clogger to me. Bad profile and overdrafted. Kupp is signed for 3 more years and Woods is signed for 5 more years. His last game here of 6/46/1 look like a great sell window and I'd happily flip him for any type of 2nd, or use him as a package piece. 

I don't hate the idea of trading Edwards as a package piece either. The lack of productivity and the fact Agholor filled a role instead of Edwards is a bit concerning. I'd prefer to keep him because of the talent profile and I'd get rid of Jefferson. It's not a difficult choice for me. 

That's just one guy's opinion though. 
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100% all of this.

Edwards will be the WR1a with Ruggs, as I imagine Agholor leaves. The organization has done nothing but rave about him since being drafted.

Van Jefferson is an older prospect and less talented. Also going to buried behind Woods and Kupp again.

 
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
I know some are down on Chark because of this year, but is anyone valuing him at a mid first rounder in this rookie draft due to the potential he's got with Lawrence?
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He was a mid first-rounder last year, I doubt he's ascended. He's currently sitting at 295 in the DLF calc and they're valuing first round picks at about 354 or so right now, depending upon the pick. So likely a late first-rounder/early 2nd.

I value him differently, but I roster him and probably have confirmation bias. He's got Shenault and Collin Johnson to worry about as young competition, and Keelan Cole as a vet, though I think Cole is a FA.

Blick said:
What are your thoughts on two, end of bench guys?

Bryan Edwards - By all accounts, he had a great camp. He gets hurt, then is barely heard from. He’s in a offense that didn’t make great use of Ruggs and is flowing through Agholor. Opportunity may be there, but will he take advantage?  Probably WR3 on his team next season  

Van Jefferson - He “flashed” more than Edwards, but will be behind Kupp, Woods, and maybe even Reynolds for the foreseeable future. Best case is that Reynolds moves on and he takes the WR3 spot. However, he seems to be a completely different type of WR than Reynolds and more of a Kupp replacement.

I hate carrying “roster cloggers” and I’m thinking these guys are exactly that. If you were to hold one, who would it be?
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Edwards was disappointing this year. Both Raider rookies were. I roster both, and they weren't even close to startable halfway through the year. Van Jefferson did just flash in a playoff game and if Josh Reynolds leaves, will be WR3 in the Rams' offense. The question becomes how much volume will he get with Akers' and Henderson's emergence? It's probably a close call.

 
AJF07 said:
Edwards will be the WR1a with Ruggs, as I imagine Agholor leaves. The organization has done nothing but rave about him since being drafted.
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Can't make the club from the tub, or anything that has assonance with dud (this year).

Tough call on Edwards, really. He played on a lousy South Carolina team so his dominator rating is out of whack and he didn't do much this year. I think I seriously overdrafted him, but I'm keeping him around just because one of the two Raiders receivers will be worth something if Agholor leaves. That's the rub, though. Renfrow and Agholor looked better than the rookies. With Agholor, he should, he's a vet. But Renfrow was in his second year and looked miles beyond those two (I know he's a slot guy and Edwards lines up out wide, but there are only so many receivers you can have on the field...)

 
rockaction said:
He was a mid first-rounder last year, I doubt he's ascended. He's currently sitting at 295 in the DLF calc and they're valuing first round picks at about 354 or so right now, depending upon the pick. So likely a late first-rounder/early 2nd.

I value him differently, but I roster him and probably have confirmation bias. He's got Shenault and Collin Johnson to worry about as young competition, and Keelan Cole as a vet, though I think Cole is a FA.
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He also has an Urban Meyer hurdle to clear.

 
MAC_32 said:
He also has an Urban Meyer hurdle to clear.
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Very true. He has to prove himself to a new staff, one that's gonna likely want to bring in their own guys. But Chark is an FA next year. If he finds himself in the doghouse, he can walk. It's just that wouldn't be optimal given that he's now 24 and would have to be essentially starting over. The talent is there. The question is whether he can professionally harness it into something a little more lucrative.

 
rockaction said:
Can't make the club from the tub, or anything that has assonance with dud (this year).

Tough call on Edwards, really. He played on a lousy South Carolina team so his dominator rating is out of whack and he didn't do much this year. I think I seriously overdrafted him, but I'm keeping him around just because one of the two Raiders receivers will be worth something if Agholor leaves. That's the rub, though. Renfrow and Agholor looked better than the rookies. With Agholor, he should, he's a vet. But Renfrow was in his second year and looked miles beyond those two (I know he's a slot guy and Edwards lines up out wide, but there are only so many receivers you can have on the field...)
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Worth what though? Starting wide receivers for Derek Carr and especially under Jon Gruden have left a lot to be desired:

2014 - James Jones 73-666-6 (112 targets), WR50 (ppg)

2015 - Michael Crabtree 85-922-9 (146), WR25

2015 - Amari Cooper 72-1,070-6 (130), WR28

2016 - Michael Crabtree 89-1,003-8 (145), WR15

2016 - Amari Cooper 83-1,153-5 (132), WR17

2017 - Michael Crabtree 58-618-8 (101), WR24

2017 - Amari Cooper 48-680-7 (96), WR33

2018 - Jordy Nelson 63-739-3 (88), WR52

2019 - Hunter Renfrow 49-605-4 (71), WR 55

2019 - Tyrell Williams 42-651-6 (64), WR58

2020 - Nelson Agholor 48-896-8 (82), WR48

This offense does not go through its receivers. The 88 Jordy saw in 2018 is the three year high under Gruden, which is outside the top 50. Pre-Gruden when Carr was in an offense that called for two superior wide receivers to receive borderline WR1 target shares they only turned out two of six top 20 seasons.

If Edwards is not getting quality nor quantity then what exactly is his plausible upside?

 
MAC_32 said:
If Edwards is not getting quality nor quantity then what exactly is his plausible upside?
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I'm not sanguine about his chances, either, but I'm stuck with him. I certainly have enough room to keep him around. I'll take Crabtree and Cooper's production. The offense does run through Waller. If you're asking me, though, if I want Edwards/Ruggs or the Rams's WR3, I'm likely to take Edwards and Ruggs and hope one works out. 

 
rockaction said:
I'm not sanguine about his chances, either, but I'm stuck with him. I certainly have enough room to keep him around. I'll take Crabtree and Cooper's production. The offense does run through Waller. If you're asking me, though, if I want Edwards/Ruggs or the Rams's WR3, I'm likely to take Edwards and Ruggs and hope one works out. 
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Why does it have to be a binary decision? And fwiw, the Rams WR3 has gotten similar targets as the Gruden Raiders WR1. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Why does it have to be a binary decision? And fwiw, the Rams WR3 has gotten similar targets as the Gruden Raiders WR1. 
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I asked the original question up thread of which of Edwards and Van presented the most upside. I think I may try to turn both into 3rd round picks. 

 
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
I know some are down on Chark because of this year, but is anyone valuing him at a mid first rounder in this rookie draft due to the potential he's got with Lawrence?
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No and it's not like say Higgins who was drafted by same regime and might find himself tied to the hip with Burrow. Different staff in JAX and my guess is he only plays one season with Lawrence and that's his rookie season.

Plus even if someone felt Chark was worth a mid first now, most of the time, it's a safe bet the value of the pick grows over next 100 days or so and if anything Charks value would in theory only decline if a decent pass catching option is added.

 
Blick said:
I asked the original question up thread of which of Edwards and Van presented the most upside. I think I may try to turn both into 3rd round picks. 
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Both likely have insurmountable issues barring injury in 2021, but do they have paths to that changing in 2022 if their talent dictates. That's what I'd be asking myself. 

 
jabarony said:
The early-to-mid 2nd round kind. (Golladay)
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i have golladay, in a rebuild. i think this is right. i want his pre-2020 season value but likely no owner will offer more than a 2nd right now. i think i will hold him for now. he could get a value boost depending on where he signs... and then if he performs early in 21 then you can trade him for closer to his pre-2020 value

 
iamkoza said:
i have golladay, in a rebuild. i think this is right. i want his pre-2020 season value but likely no owner will offer more than a 2nd right now. i think i will hold him for now. he could get a value boost depending on where he signs... and then if he performs early in 21 then you can trade him for closer to his pre-2020 value
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I'm in a different position, but have the same plan. I have a lot of uncertainty in my WR room, but if things break right for enough of them (A Rob/Golladay/Deebo/C Samuel/Viska/Reagor/R Higgins/G Davis/S Miller/E Sanders) then I intend to shop my then 28 year old's. Value boost aside, I think I need them to at least start 2021.

 
iamkoza said:
i have golladay, in a rebuild. i think this is right. i want his pre-2020 season value but likely no owner will offer more than a 2nd right now. i think i will hold him for now. he could get a value boost depending on where he signs... and then if he performs early in 21 then you can trade him for closer to his pre-2020 value
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I have Golladay in dynasty and no way I would be moving him for a 2nd, regardless if my team is rebuilding or not. 

 
Blick said:
What are your thoughts on two, end of bench guys?

Bryan Edwards - By all accounts, he had a great camp. He gets hurt, then is barely heard from. He’s in a offense that didn’t make great use of Ruggs and is flowing through Agholor. Opportunity may be there, but will he take advantage?  Probably WR3 on his team next season  

Van Jefferson - He “flashed” more than Edwards, but will be behind Kupp, Woods, and maybe even Reynolds for the foreseeable future. Best case is that Reynolds moves on and he takes the WR3 spot. However, he seems to be a completely different type of WR than Reynolds and more of a Kupp replacement. 
 

I hate carrying “roster cloggers” and I’m thinking these guys are exactly that. If you were to hold one, who would it be?
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I like both of these players and I have them on my teams. Your league dynamics may decide if they are a waste of roster spots or not.

Edwards did win the starting X WR position for the Raiders to begin the season. I think he may be their best blocking WR and they did show they want him to start. However he got injured and Nelson Agholor being more experienced player performed well in his spot and he never got it back.

The offense goes almost entirely through Darren Waller. So there isn't much left over for other receivers to make an impact in fantasy until that changes.

Van Jefferson flashed because he is a good all around WR who will make plays when given the opportunity. He is very much like Robert Woods in my opinion. He is blocked by the other good WR on the team at this time. I do think they drafted Jefferson for a reason though and he earns more playing time in 2021.

Of the two I value Jefferson more. He was the higher draft pick of the two and if Edwards was so good he would not have lost his job to Agholor despite the obvious reasons being experience, limited otas and so on. The Rams on the other hand got Jefferson involved even with their established WR healthy, as I think he is a similar talent to Woods and Kupp even though his college numbers were not nearly as dominant.

 
Dynasty PPR value check on D. Hopkins...

His owner offered me him for Keenan Allen & my 2021 1.09. I must be crazy b/c I did not smash accept. I am a contender in win now mode, but my weak spot is not WR...

 
Helaire-ious said:
Dynasty PPR value check on D. Hopkins...

His owner offered me him for Keenan Allen & my 2021 1.09. I must be crazy b/c I did not smash accept. I am a contender in win now mode, but my weak spot is not WR...
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You might be able to do better in a trade, but I dont agree hopkins and allen are the same.

I could easily see taking Hopkins here.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
You're right. I take it back. Hopkins > Allen.

But the difference isn't a 1st, IMO.
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It probably is in a vacuum.  However, team makeup and other availabilities matter.  Say for example he is weak at RB and trades him someone like Ekeler for pick 9.

If he is strong all over and has extra picks, then it's a no brainer accept for me to grab hopkins.  More points and more durability

 
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ghostguy123 said:
It probably is in a vacuum.  However, team makeup and other availabilities matter.  Say for example he is weak at RB and trades him someone like Ekeler for pick 9.

If he is strong all over and has extra picks, then it's a no brainer accept for me
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Don't have other 1st rounders & need RB depth & could use a TE upgrade. I wonder if offering him Allen, 1.09, Golladay & Cohen would get my Zeke, Hopkins & Pollard

 
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I've got...

Mahomes

________________

Murray

Watson

Allen

_________________

Dak

Lamar

Edit: Forgot about Dak.

 
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Speaking of QBs, what is the difference in Mahomes and Murray in a 1qb league? 

ETA: Assume 4pt pass TDs.

 
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RC94 said:
Who are your top 6 dynasty QBs and how do you have them ranked?
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Mahomes 

—

Watson

Murray

—

Dak

Allen

Jackson

I’ll admit to being wildly off with Herbert, but I’m not putting him ahead of any of these guys who have been solid for multiple years. I can’t say he’s ahead of Burrow. 

 
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