What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (13 Viewers)

Not planning to buy Gurley anywhere, but he was a top 10 draft pick and did 1100 yards at 4.8 YPC as a rookie. If a guy with those credentials is slumping, I'm less likely to write him off completely since those are some major positives to anchor to. You can say Trent Richardson, but I can say Thomas Jones, Marshawn Lynch, and Cedric Benson. Sometimes good backs struggle due to immaturity and contextual variables. If you always bail when things look dicey, you sacrifice some value when the players turns it around.

The inverse kind of applies to the Kareem Hunt/Jay Ajayi/Jordan Howard crowd. They weren't exactly elite draft prospects, so even though they've done some nice things, does that prove they're legit talents or are they just mediocre guys in a hot streak? These are always tough situations to navigate. If I don't have a strong gut instinct one way or the other, I try to find a middle ground. Gurley at RB7 seems like a reasonable middle ground. It's below the healthy prime elite talents and the best rookies, but ahead of some of the dubious guys, JAG types, and fading old guys.

I think this is a big year for him though. I'm likely going to be pretty stubborn with people like Mixon, Hunt, and McCaffrey even if they struggle/dominate since one year of production doesn't have to tell you much, but when it starts to look like a long-term trend then you have to really wonder. If Gurley stinks it up for another year then the odds of him being flat out bad look a lot higher, so his ranking is pretty volatile right now.
Im with you on Howard and Ajayi but im on the Hunt train. I wouldn't say hes a subpar draft prospect. He was a 3 star high school recruit. Went to a smaller school and a respected coach like Andy Reid traded up in the 3rd to grab him giving up their own 3rd, a 4th and a 7th in the process. He wasn't a top 10 pick like Fournette, McCaffrey and Gurley but I doubt he and Dalvin Cook were far apart as prospects by NFL scouts.

 
Not planning to buy Gurley anywhere, but he was a top 10 draft pick and did 1100 yards at 4.8 YPC as a rookie. If a guy with those credentials is slumping, I'm less likely to write him off completely since those are some major positives to anchor to. You can say Trent Richardson, but I can say Thomas Jones, Marshawn Lynch, and Cedric Benson. Sometimes good backs struggle due to immaturity and contextual variables. If you always bail when things look dicey, you sacrifice some value when the players turns it around.

The inverse kind of applies to the Kareem Hunt/Jay Ajayi/Jordan Howard crowd. They weren't exactly elite draft prospects, so even though they've done some nice things, does that prove they're legit talents or are they just mediocre guys in a hot streak? These are always tough situations to navigate. If I don't have a strong gut instinct one way or the other, I try to find a middle ground. Gurley at RB7 seems like a reasonable middle ground. It's below the healthy prime elite talents and the best rookies, but ahead of some of the dubious guys, JAG types, and fading old guys.

I think this is a big year for him though. I'm likely going to be pretty stubborn with people like Mixon, Hunt, and McCaffrey even if they struggle/dominate since one year of production doesn't have to tell you much, but when it starts to look like a long-term trend then you have to really wonder. If Gurley stinks it up for another year then the odds of him being flat out bad look a lot higher, so his ranking is pretty volatile right now.
The only thing about Gurley's rookie year is it was mainly a few big runs a game. Now the big plays have dried up. I had much the same thoughts as you, not a lot of suddenness to him and I was never a big fan. Always looked like a big guy who could run and once he got in the open field he's fast and a load. But you have to get in the open field for that to matter. Feels like he needs a good o-line to get him there or he's going to struggle. Also starting to wonder about his attitude.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Im with you on Howard and Ajayi but im on the Hunt train. I wouldn't say hes a subpar draft prospect. He was a 3 star high school recruit. Went to a smaller school and a respected coach like Andy Reid traded up in the 3rd to grab him giving up their own 3rd, a 4th and a 7th in the process. He wasn't a top 10 pick like Fournette, McCaffrey and Gurley but I doubt he and Dalvin Cook were far apart as prospects by NFL scouts.
Well, both guys had some character stuff. Hunt was actually suspended for a couple games at Toledo for the always mysterious "violation of team rules". Cook had some attitude questions as well IIRC. Both guys may have been dinged slightly for that. Still, Cook was the 41st pick after three years in college. Hunt was the 86th pick after four years in college. That's a fairly big gap. I like Cook more from an eyeball test standpoint. Not a big guy or a tackle breaker, but he just glides as a runner.

I don't have anything against Hunt really. If you go back and search my posts from several years ago when he was at Toledo, I was actually asking why he wasn't getting more hype in dev circles. He's always been a good back. Is he a great back though? I've never believed it. This is an over-simplification, but I think in the NFL there are basically three categories of players:

1. Guys who are so good that they demand touches everywhere they go.

2. Guys who are good enough to thrive if given a good opportunity, but who aren't so good that they can excel regardless of context.

3. Guys who are just keeping a roster spot warm for a better talent.

If you're going to take a guy in the top 10 of his position, obviously you'd hope that he falls into group #1. That's select company though. At RB you're talking about guys like LeSean McCoy, LeVeon Bell, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, etc. Basically guys who can not only win a starting job, but also hold it down for several years. These backs are good enough to hold off almost any challenger from the draft and, in the unlikely event that they get supplanted, they're good enough to find another team and become the main starter there. Kareem Hunt is a solid back, but is he that good? I watched him a lot in college and I never felt he had that level of talent. I've missed on plenty of guys before and maybe I just flat out underestimated Hunt, but to me he's just a solid, serviceable back who found himself in a golden opportunity. Guys like that are great in redraft, but in dynasty you're always looking over your shoulder crossing your fingers and hoping that their team doesn't Zac Stacy them.

I'm not really 100% sold on Cook either, but he looked more impressive to me in college and was the higher pick, so I'm a little more of a believer there. Mixon, Fournette, and McCaffrey are probably the only rookie RBs who I currently think have "group 1" type of talent (Cohen looks like a Sproles regen, so maybe him too as a depth guy). Kamara looks interesting, but I'm not fully sold yet. Perine, Hunt, and Foreman strike me as more of your typical 3rd-4th round type of guys who can thrive in spurts, but who don't really have that A+ level of talent where they're going to be the man 3-4 years from now.

 
Elliott is younger than Johnson, Bell, and Fournette so why worry about a few game suspension. I would rank him 1st. 

I'm not convinced Fournette is a great RB but workload it might not matter for a year or two. Similar to Gordon, just earlier in the trajectory.

I probably have Dalvin Cook as a top 5. May be too much confirmation bias for a game against NOS, but I'll ride the high of 27 touches for now.

I would be tempted to rank Cook and Fournette ahead of Bell and Johnson. It's not going to take much for that order to change and the difference to be huge.

Kareem Hunt may not be an elite talent but I think he's better than and similar to Freeman and his situation is at least as good.

I would clump Ajayi, Howard, and Gurley together (in that order). They are all basically the same. All should be RB1 this year. All could easily disappear with the right mix of injury or struggles.

I still have Derrick Henry as a RB1.

I also have McCaffrey as a RB1, but am less excited for Mixon.

I'm interested to see how Kamara and Foreman's roles change over the year.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Kizer didn't look great to me. Held onto the ball too long, didn't seem to know what to do. It's way too early but seemed more in line with Tarvaris Jackson and Jacoby Brissett.

I think Watson can be adequate for NFL and fantasy and nothing I saw changed my mind. For fantasy I'm encouraged he runs when the play breaks down, although that might not be the best for his NFL development.

I don't expect either to become great QB but both can be serviceable for fantasy short term. I still expect Watson to have a better career than Kizer or Trubisky (and probably not Mahomes).
You had me at the first sentence. Lost me at the bolded. Trubisky is so much better than the other three....

 
You had me at the first sentence. Lost me at the bolded. Trubisky is so much better than the other three....
It's possible Trubisky is the best NFL QB of the bunch. Certainly most NFL evaluators thought so. I view him as a project whose preseason success was largely based on checkdowns. I'm a moderate believer in the Parcells strategy of looking for guys who started and won in college, which is part of the reason I think it will take Trubisky a while to develop, if it happens. I loved watching Marquise Williams in college so I don't hold the 1 year starter against him that much, but I do hold against him the mediocrity of that one year.

Mahomes is a risky player so it was probably bad wording for me to say/imply he "probably" would be the best of the four. I think he has the highest upside and that Reid protects his downside quite a bit (Bortles with A coaching is still a good asset, I think), so I think he has the most value.

I get that Watson is a flawed prospect, but I think we've seen this script enough times that it doesn't matter for the first few years, maybe longer.

 
My team is in rebuilding mode

I have been offered Wentz and a first rounder for Aaron Rodgers. Is that enough.

I look at it like half of the 1st round picks are busts. Wentz is number 11QB and 99 overall in dynasty rankings. Rodgers is #2 QB and number 25 overall.

Updated now is offering Corey Coleman as well for Desean Jackson as I said I needed more than a pick

thoughts
This is just a bump as I am looking for more feedback

 
This is just a bump as I am looking for more feedback
That would not be enough for me. I get that it makes sense to sell since you are in rebuild mode, and Wentz + + seems like a fine way to go. But Rodgers provides a real positional advantage for a contender, and I think it makes sense to hold out for more. Adding Coleman or Desean is the right direction but the wrong particular players for me. Get another real building block in the deal, and be patient if it isn't offered. Rodgers value will rise as the playoffs approach and teams look for the edge.

 
thriftyrocker said:
Kizer didn't look great to me. Held onto the ball too long, didn't seem to know what to do. It's way too early but seemed more in line with Tarvaris Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. 

I think Watson can be adequate for NFL and fantasy and nothing I saw changed my mind. For fantasy I'm encouraged he runs when the play breaks down, although that might not be the best for his NFL development.

I don't expect either to become great QB but both can be serviceable for fantasy short term. I still expect Watson to have a better career than Kizer or Trubisky (and probably not Mahomes).
Kizer certainly needs to get the ball out quicker.  He's arrogant, but I kind of like that about him. 

Any comps for Watson?  I just can't think of any long-term fantasy starters with his level of arm talent.  

 
EBF said:
Not planning to buy Gurley anywhere, but he was a top 10 draft pick and did 1100 yards at 4.8 YPC as a rookie. If a guy with those credentials is slumping, I'm less likely to write him off completely since those are some major positives to anchor to.
If a guy has been slumping for more than half of his career, at what point do we stop calling it a slump and just call it who he is?

It's hard to do too much after one week but I was really disappointed in what I saw out of him last week.  He looked bad last year even beyond the bad line, but I was willing to give it a shot in the sense that maybe he was just so mentally defeated from the poor situation last year that he wasn't really giving it his all.  But this week everything was clicking for the Rams.  The offense was moving the ball, they were winning the game, the blocking was at least some measure better.  But he still looked like the same plod and fall over Gurley.

I understand wanting to hedge some because the talent is (or at least was) there.  But the 5-7 range where people have him here seems high to me.  There are quite a few guys behind him on this list that I'd rather take my chances with, and I'd be looking to sell sell sell if others are willing to pay that kind of value for him.

 
I am looking for RB help in a couple PPR dynasty leagues & not having any success making deals. In one league, I have two 2018 1st round picks I can trade. My current RBs are Fournette, Gil, Ingram & J. Anderson. I would trade all of them but Fournette, but it would need to be for an upgrade of course. Also tried to move Gronk for a RB upgrade & TE downgrade, but no dice. My WRs are Adams, KJ, AJ, Matthews, Kupp, Zay Jones, Schuster & Marvin Jones.

Any ideas on who I should go after & with what?

In the other league, my RBs of note are Zeke, Lamar Miller, Lynch, Perkins & Ingram. Cannot get any bites on Miller or Perkins.Not really looking to move Zeke. I also own Gronk here & my WRs are Evans, Diggs, Kupp, Richardson, Schuster, Wheaton, Tate, M. Jones & Decker. No bites on Decker or Jones either. I was offered Crowell for Diggs, but that is not enough for Diggs IMO. Any thoughts here as well?

 
With Game Pass, and NFL's great YouTube channel, you can quickly see every throw these kids have made since being drafted. Anyone wanna explain how any of these kids looked better than Kizer, I'm all ears.

 
I am looking for RB help in a couple PPR dynasty leagues [...] Any ideas on who I should go after & with what?
Short-term, I like McCoy.  I'd pay a late first + Matthews or Zay.  Lynch and Murray could be a cheaper options.  For potential foundation pieces, Henry, Kamara, and Mixon are a few you might be able to get at market value.  I'd pay a 2nd or Matthews or Zay for Cohen.  Mark Ingram and Doug Martin will see their value trend up at least once more.  Ameer Abdullah is a buy for me.  If you want to go really cheap, I like James White to have a few big games this season.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Any comps for Watson?  I just can't think of any long-term fantasy starters with his level of arm talent.  
Cosell compared him to Alex Smith and Bloom compared him to Tyrod Taylor. Alex Smith only ran in the playoffs. Obviously that is a key component if you are only concerned with fantasy. As I said I'm optimistic about how he handles pocket breakdowns from a fantasy perspective. Your comment reminds me of Peyton Manning throwing ducks. If he can get the ball out quick and win when it counts, it doesn't matter. 

Carson Wentz' deep ball has been pretty atrocious. 

 
Cosell compared him to Alex Smith and Bloom compared him to Tyrod Taylor. Alex Smith only ran in the playoffs. Obviously that is a key component if you are only concerned with fantasy. As I said I'm optimistic about how he handles pocket breakdowns from a fantasy perspective. Your comment reminds me of Peyton Manning throwing ducks. If he can get the ball out quick and win when it counts, it doesn't matter. 

Carson Wentz' deep ball has been pretty atrocious. 
I guess it depends on what you mean by arm talent; maybe I'm using the wrong term.   It's not just that he doesn't have a big arm--not a huge deal--but his intermediate placement has been bad as well.  He doesn't see the entire field and is prone to poor decisions - that doesn't sound like Alex Smith or Peyton Manning to me.  

 
I hadn't noticed, but you certainly watch him more than I do.  I had considered him a buy.  Am I wrong to?
I am hoping Trubisky, Watson or Kizer show enough I can even swap them for Wentz. Granted I am fine with being wrong due to homerism. I would rank him with Winston and Mariota, not with Trubisky and Watson.

It's not just that he doesn't have a big arm--not a huge deal--but his intermediate placement has been bad as well.  He doesn't see the entire field and is prone to poor decisions - that doesn't sound like Alex Smith or Peyton Manning to me.  
I think Watson's ability to read defenses before the snap is very good, and that's something Alex Smith is also good at. He may not go through all his reads but tell me a college QB that does. 

His intermediate accuracy is on par or superior to all the other rookies. He is great at timing throws. 

Why are we ignoring all his positives? 

 
I am hoping Trubisky, Watson or Kizer show enough I can even swap them for Wentz. Granted I am fine with being wrong due to homerism. I would rank him with Winston and Mariota, not with Trubisky and Watson.

I think Watson's ability to read defenses before the snap is very good, and that's something Alex Smith is also good at. He may not go through all his reads but tell me a college QB that does. 

His intermediate accuracy is on par or superior to all the other rookies. He is great at timing throws. 

Why are we ignoring all his positives? 
Watson's intermediate accuracy has been awful, from what I've seen; certainly not on par with Kizer.  

For positives--I'd agree with timing; his ball looks pretty; he's a winner at the college level; he's athletic.  I really am pulling for the kid, I just don't see him helping my fantasy portfolio. FWIW, I didn't think Dak had the deep accuracy to cut it, and was wrong about that.    

Edit: But Dak flashed from the first snap. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Short-term, I like McCoy.  I'd pay a late first + Matthews or Zay.  Lynch and Murray could be a cheaper options.  For potential foundation pieces, Henry, Kamara, and Mixon are a few you might be able to get at market value.  I'd pay a 2nd or Matthews or Zay for Cohen.  Mark Ingram and Doug Martin will see their value trend up at least once more.  Ameer Abdullah is a buy for me.  If you want to go really cheap, I like James White to have a few big games this season.  
In the league with Fornette, I actually traded McCoy away since I am rebuilding. I got Adams, 2018 1st & Gronk for him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If a guy has been slumping for more than half of his career, at what point do we stop calling it a slump and just call it who he is?
Well, that sounds a lot worse than it is since Gurley's "career" is only two seasons old. One season was good. One was awful. My ranking at RB7 assumes that his real quality is somewhere in the middle, but as I said it's volatile and could drop quickly if he keeps looking bad. My take on him as a college prospect was that he was a lot more straight-line than advertised. Basically a big/fast guy who didn't have a great ability to create on his own without big lanes. I've never been a full believer and don't own him anywhere.

That being said, one of the issues for me is that a lot of the alternatives are pretty mediocre. I've got Zeke/Bell/DJ/Mixon/Fournette/McCaffrey as my top 6 and I'd feel good about any of them as a dynasty cornerstone type of player. Someone you can count on for several good years. After that, I see a lot of mediocrity and committee players. For example, a lot of people have Melvin Gordon as a top 10 back. He's a lifetime 3.X YPC rusher and looks pretty brutal to me. I'm not convinced that guys like Howard/Hunt/Ajayi are legit long-term NFL starters. Others like Abdullah, Cohen, and Freeman have real talent, but aren't necessarily obvious projections for huge upside due to their more RBBC nature (same could be said for McCaffrey, but in PPR I'm sold that he can be a RB1). Then you have veterans like McCoy and Martin who can still have good seasons, but whose market value is eroding quickly. They're useful for contenders, but in 2-3 years you're holding an empty bag. So at a certain point you have to put somebody at RB7, even if it's not a player you'd ever target in a startup at that price.

I'll say this for Gurley: I don't have a huge amount of faith in him, but if it ever gets to a point where people are jumping ship and selling him for peanuts like they did with Lynch after he washed out in Buffalo or Benson after he washed out in Chicago, I might look to buy him as a cheap reclamation project. Right now there's still too much weight attached to his name, the rookie year hype, and the sunken cost of the 1.01-1.03 rookie picks people spent on him for him to be available at true cut rate prices. By the end of the year, maybe that will have changed.

 
Well, that sounds a lot worse than it is since Gurley's "career" is only two seasons old. One season was good. One was awful. My ranking at RB7 assumes that his real quality is somewhere in the middle, but as I said it's volatile and could drop quickly if he keeps looking bad. My take on him as a college prospect was that he was a lot more straight-line than advertised. Basically a big/fast guy who didn't have a great ability to create on his own without big lanes. I've never been a full believer and don't own him anywhere.

That being said, one of the issues for me is that a lot of the alternatives are pretty mediocre. I've got Zeke/Bell/DJ/Mixon/Fournette/McCaffrey as my top 6 and I'd feel good about any of them as a dynasty cornerstone type of player. Someone you can count on for several good years. After that, I see a lot of mediocrity and committee players. For example, a lot of people have Melvin Gordon as a top 10 back. He's a lifetime 3.X YPC rusher and looks pretty brutal to me. I'm not convinced that guys like Howard/Hunt/Ajayi are legit long-term NFL starters. Others like Abdullah, Cohen, and Freeman have real talent, but aren't necessarily obvious projections for huge upside due to their more RBBC nature (same could be said for McCaffrey, but in PPR I'm sold that he can be a RB1). Then you have veterans like McCoy and Martin who can still have good seasons, but whose market value is eroding quickly. They're useful for contenders, but in 2-3 years you're holding an empty bag. So at a certain point you have to put somebody at RB7, even if it's not a player you'd ever target in a startup at that price.

I'll say this for Gurley: I don't have a huge amount of faith in him, but if it ever gets to a point where people are jumping ship and selling him for peanuts like they did with Lynch after he washed out in Buffalo or Benson after he washed out in Chicago, I might look to buy him as a cheap reclamation project. Right now there's still too much weight attached to his name, the rookie year hype, and the sunken cost of the 1.01-1.03 rookie picks people spent on him for him to be available at true cut rate prices. By the end of the year, maybe that will have changed.
No mention of Cook?  

 
I had Cook at 8 on my list. I have him in one league and if someone offered Gurley straight up, the reality is that I'd probably pass, so he should probably be a spot higher.

 
EBF said:
Well, that sounds a lot worse than it is since Gurley's "career" is only two seasons old. One season was good. One was awful. My ranking at RB7 assumes that his real quality is somewhere in the middle, but as I said it's volatile and could drop quickly if he keeps looking bad. My take on him as a college prospect was that he was a lot more straight-line than advertised. Basically a big/fast guy who didn't have a great ability to create on his own without big lanes. I've never been a full believer and don't own him anywhere.

That being said, one of the issues for me is that a lot of the alternatives are pretty mediocre. I've got Zeke/Bell/DJ/Mixon/Fournette/McCaffrey as my top 6 and I'd feel good about any of them as a dynasty cornerstone type of player. Someone you can count on for several good years. After that, I see a lot of mediocrity and committee players. For example, a lot of people have Melvin Gordon as a top 10 back. He's a lifetime 3.X YPC rusher and looks pretty brutal to me. I'm not convinced that guys like Howard/Hunt/Ajayi are legit long-term NFL starters. Others like Abdullah, Cohen, and Freeman have real talent, but aren't necessarily obvious projections for huge upside due to their more RBBC nature (same could be said for McCaffrey, but in PPR I'm sold that he can be a RB1). Then you have veterans like McCoy and Martin who can still have good seasons, but whose market value is eroding quickly. They're useful for contenders, but in 2-3 years you're holding an empty bag. So at a certain point you have to put somebody at RB7, even if it's not a player you'd ever target in a startup at that price.

I'll say this for Gurley: I don't have a huge amount of faith in him, but if it ever gets to a point where people are jumping ship and selling him for peanuts like they did with Lynch after he washed out in Buffalo or Benson after he washed out in Chicago, I might look to buy him as a cheap reclamation project. Right now there's still too much weight attached to his name, the rookie year hype, and the sunken cost of the 1.01-1.03 rookie picks people spent on him for him to be available at true cut rate prices. By the end of the year, maybe that will have changed.
Well it was really 3/4 of a season that was good, one season that was awful, and now he's off to a bad start again in season 3.

Overall for his career he has only eclipsed 4.0 ypc in 8 of his 30 games (26%), which is really dreadful.  Heck he has more games under 3.0 ypc (12) than he has games over 4.0 ypc (8).

I get your point about other options to some extent but those other options actually seem better than they have in recent years.  I'd easily have him behind that entire next tier of Ajayi, Freeman, Howard, etc.  I am just as down on Gordon as you (and have argued it pretty vigorously in the Gordon thread) but I'd probably even put him ahead as at least he's putting up good fantasy numbers while he plods along into the back of his linemen.  Hunt and Cook easily ahead of Gurley for me too.

I agree he could be a good buy if he washes out completely a la Lynch/Benson, though the problem there is even with those guys in none of my leagues did the guy that first bought into trying to see if they could turn it around end up being the one that still had them by the time they finally did.  In all cases they had been added and dropped several times prior to that.  Though I guess that depends on roster sizes (I don't really play in any giant roster size leagues).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If a guy has been slumping for more than half of his career, at what point do we stop calling it a slump and just call it who he is?

It's hard to do too much after one week but I was really disappointed in what I saw out of him last week.  He looked bad last year even beyond the bad line, but I was willing to give it a shot in the sense that maybe he was just so mentally defeated from the poor situation last year that he wasn't really giving it his all.  But this week everything was clicking for the Rams.  The offense was moving the ball, they were winning the game, the blocking was at least some measure better.  But he still looked like the same plod and fall over Gurley.

I understand wanting to hedge some because the talent is (or at least was) there.  But the 5-7 range where people have him here seems high to me.  There are quite a few guys behind him on this list that I'd rather take my chances with, and I'd be looking to sell sell sell if others are willing to pay that kind of value for him.
I share a similar view on Gurley that I need to see him play like he did as a rookie again and not like last year to believe he can be a top 12 RB for fantasy.

The game in week one is kind of hard to judge, as they returned turnovers for TD early on in the game and were able to just coach from that point. A defense knowing that the Rams will just run out the clock is at an advantage as far stopping the run (that they expect) so it isn't really an ideal situation for Gurley from a efficiency standpoint but 2.1 ypc is terrible in any situation.

While Gurley was an obviously gifted RB for Gerogia that level of play has not put him ahead of his peers in the NFL the way people expected it would. 

I still have an open mind about it and Gurley should have a lot of opportunity, so if I believed that was going to happen soon, instead of wait and see position that I currently have, then I would consider Gurley a buy. I would not pay top 12 RB price that Gurley owners want for him though, so I don't see a deal happening unless the price were lower than that.

 
Anybody wanna do a top 10 dynasty for RBs? Seems like a lot has changed as of late.
I do think there is a changing of the guard occurring at the RB position right now where the few good veteran RB are fading out now or soon will be. So the top 10 RBs are going to be composed of mostly new players as soon as next season, if not already. So I agree with a lot has changed and will change.

I spent some time trying to rank all players for dynasty last spring. I didn't finish it (I never do) and that was before the NFL draft, I haven't tried to slot the rookie RB in with the vets really, I prefer to keep those rankings separate, at least until the rookies first season is completed. But I will try to do that here, just based off of who I would draft first or who I would trade for straight up.

David Johnson

Ezekiel Elliot

LeVeon Bell

Dalvin Cook

Leonard Fournette

Jay Ajayi

Devonta Freeman

Melvin Gordon

Christian McCaffrey

Kareem Hunt

Jordan Howard

Joe Mixon

LeSean McCoy

Todd Gurley

Derrick Henry

Carlos Hyde

Lamar Miller

Mark Ingram

DeMarco Murray

Ameer Abdullah

D'Onta Foreman

Alvin Kamara

I do have a bunch more RB ranked after this in buckets, but I can tell by looking at it that I didn't finish with those, its where things start to get much muddier. I might still have some guys ahead of Foreman and Kamara (tier two rookie RB)  The above list starts getting iffy for me around Derrick Henry/DeMarco Murray point.

 
What's the word on Treadwell? In my Keep 12 leagues, an impatient owner just dropped him. I haven't paid a lick of attention to Treadwell since he's on none of my teams. Is he showing anything yet this year?

 
What's the word on Treadwell? In my Keep 12 leagues, an impatient owner just dropped him. I haven't paid a lick of attention to Treadwell since he's on none of my teams. Is he showing anything yet this year?
No, but he's still worth a stash.

 
What do we need to see to move Ty Montgomery into the dynasty RB1 conversation?
More like: What do we need to see to move Ty Montgomery into the dynasty RB2 conversation?

I own a lot of shares of Ty because he was so cheap in my rookie drafts and I liked him a little bit as a slot WR/hybrid weapon. That being said, I've never bought the idea of him as a long-term featured back in the NFL. I think he's too limited as a runner. I would've said "sell high" in the offseason, but the reality is that his value has never gotten high enough where it really would've been worth the trouble (I don't think you're getting a 1st for him and 2nds are not that great).

I've always felt that his best position would be the Randall Cobb role, working out of the slot as a catch-and-run weapon. He may yet have a productive future in that type of role, but I don't think the RB experiment is going to hold.

 
Packers made a big mistake not bringing in a early down rb. Think they have to at least give Williams some more carries. Montgomery looks like he's getting exposed right now as a gadget/CoP back.
They drafted three backs and there's still a chance that one or more of them will get a chance before it's all said and done. I've got Devante Mays in every dynasty league and I think he'd be an interesting guy to trot out there and test with 15-20 carries. Not saying I think he's anything special, but he's a big guy with some quicks/speed/catching ability who could prove serviceable.

 
Tyreek Hill creeping into top 10 WR in dynasty.

Diggs and Thielen look like the real deal too. Diggs is a top 15ish WR and Thielen is a top 20ish WR. I still think Thielen will end the season with more targets if Bradford comes back but his lack of TD will cap his ceiling.......Bradford looks for Rudolph and Diggs in the redzone.

Hunt breaks into the top 10 RB.....Still think Tyreek has a lot to do with that but the kids is good.

 
More like: What do we need to see to move Ty Montgomery into the dynasty RB2 conversation?

I own a lot of shares of Ty because he was so cheap in my rookie drafts and I liked him a little bit as a slot WR/hybrid weapon. That being said, I've never bought the idea of him as a long-term featured back in the NFL. I think he's too limited as a runner. I would've said "sell high" in the offseason, but the reality is that his value has never gotten high enough where it really would've been worth the trouble (I don't think you're getting a 1st for him and 2nds are not that great).

I've always felt that his best position would be the Randall Cobb role, working out of the slot as a catch-and-run weapon. He may yet have a productive future in that type of role, but I don't think the RB experiment is going to hold.
Do you think it holds enough to keep the RB designation?  The RB field is still pretty thin.  Shady is a low 1/high 2 right now.  I see Ty as offering me similar production this year, after which he'll be 25 to Shady's 30.  I don't know what he'll be at that point, but he doesn't need 3+ years of current production to repay an investment today.  

He's a tricky asset, but I'll buy if a late 1st is the cost to acquire.

 
Tyreek Hill creeping into top 10 WR in dynasty.

Diggs and Thielen look like the real deal too. Diggs is a top 15ish WR and Thielen is a top 20ish WR. I still think Thielen will end the season with more targets if Bradford comes back but his lack of TD will cap his ceiling.......Bradford looks for Rudolph and Diggs in the redzone.

Hunt breaks into the top 10 RB.....Still think Tyreek has a lot to do with that but the kids is good.
Top 10 RBs? I think Hunt breaks into the top 10 overall.

 
In PPR it's a little different though as Ingram is RB20.

I think it would take a fairly perfect scenario for him to bring back a 1st.  Maybe a good team that loses a RB to injury and is willing to add Ingram for a 1st that will almost certainly be late.

For a 2nd I think he's a good buy.  Next year I expect Peterson to be gone and he'll still only be 28.  Seems like one of those guys that could hang around with little trade value but helpful RB2/Flex production for several years after people have all but dismissed him.

 
I would take Julio over either of those guys. 
that's what I was kinda thinking most people would say. I was just curious if my thinking was off there. I suppose both coming off huge games doesn't help me.

I have Brown, beckham, AJ, davonte adams and Julio so I have some chips to play with but no one is willing to deal a top back for Julio or AJ.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top