Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

2 hours ago, steeler6 said:

Its a start up.  

 

Probably after some of the more established QBs, and also after some of the top WR and RB. It's hard to say without seeing your scoring, or knowing keeper rules.

Since it's a start-up clean slate all rosters blank, he's going to be either a bench stash QB3 or a draft & pray QB2 for whichever team picks him. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

How do you rank these guys: Pitts, Waller, Hockenson, Fant?

Waller's turning 29 opening day 2021. He should be first among those 4, but I would bet on the peak either being what we just saw or 2021. Depending on one's alternatives, might be a good time to cash out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

 but I would bet on the peak either being what we just saw or 2021. Depending on one's alternatives, might be a good time to cash out.

You may be right but I recall that was also said about Waller last year and I bought into it for the most part. I know last year I drafted Waller once but for the most part considered me not being high enough on him one of my biggest fails of the year.

Figuring out how a player ages can be tricky as will be on full display in a few days when we see the once great 31 year old Gronk vs the peak of greatness 31 year old Kelce. I recall buying Kelce two years in a TE premium league from an owner who was looking to get out due to his age.  Hard knowing sometimes how these things will got but Waller does seem pretty fresh.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

You may be right but I recall that was also said about Waller last year and I bought into it for the most part. I know last year I drafted Waller once but for the most part considered me not being high enough on him one of my biggest fails of the year.

Figuring out how a player ages can be tricky as will be on full display in a few days when we see the once great 31 year old Gronk vs the peak of greatness 31 year old Kelce. I recall buying Kelce two years in a TE premium league from an owner who was looking to get out due to his age.  Hard knowing sometimes how these things will got but Waller does seem pretty fresh.

 

I try to play the averages rather than guessing which ones beat father time. The market doesn't always come to my desired price and I ride them out, but if I get a fair offer I'd rather jump off from a late 20something too early than get left holding the bag. Cause the idea is I swap them out for someone a half decade plus younger and already have a replacement teed up. Given the current TE landscape I get that may not be reality for many Waller owners though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, steeler6 said:

In a start 2QB 12 team startup, where would the 1.1 (Lawrence) go?

I have 6 players in Tier1, Trevor Lawrence isn't one of them. Tier2 has 19 players (22 if it's TE premium) in it, Trevor Lawrence is part of that tier.

In a startup I'm taking Lawrence back end of round 2 probably, maybe round 3 if my draft slot dictates that. Depends on if I've addressed QB already or not. I tend to go 1QB early, 1QB middling rounds, and wait a bit for my QB3 though. Some might prefer to load up QB earlier, in that case I can see Lawrence going back end of round 1. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I have 6 players in Tier1, Trevor Lawrence isn't one of them. Tier2 has 19 players (22 if it's TE premium) in it, Trevor Lawrence is part of that tier.

In a startup I'm taking Lawrence back end of round 2 probably, maybe round 3 if my draft slot dictates that. Depends on if I've addressed QB already or not. I tend to go 1QB early, 1QB middling rounds, and wait a bit for my QB3 though. Some might prefer to load up QB earlier, in that case I can see Lawrence going back end of round 1. 

I would hope in a 2QB league he would be in Tier 1...

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

In a rookie draft, yes a Tier1 prospect. In overall dynasty no. 

Who are your six Tier 1 guys? I’m assuming Mahomes, Kyler, Allen, Watson(assuming we are talking about 2QB) 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I have 6 players in Tier1, Trevor Lawrence isn't one of them. Tier2 has 19 players (22 if it's TE premium) in it, Trevor Lawrence is part of that tier.

In a startup I'm taking Lawrence back end of round 2 probably, maybe round 3 if my draft slot dictates that. Depends on if I've addressed QB already or not. I tend to go 1QB early, 1QB middling rounds, and wait a bit for my QB3 though. Some might prefer to load up QB earlier, in that case I can see Lawrence going back end of round 1. 

How much would you move that up if you draft a draft slot (ie instead of single picks, we draft the group of picks)

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Who are your six Tier 1 guys? I’m assuming Mahomes, Kyler, Allen, Watson(assuming we are talking about 2QB) 

Mahomes, Watson

McCaffrey, Barkley, Taylor, Cooks

That's my Tier1 of players. Kyler and Allen are in the next tier. I'm still a tiny bit skeptical of both of them. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Mahomes, Watson

McCaffrey, Barkley, Taylor, Cooks

That's my Tier1 of players. Kyler and Allen are in the next tier. I'm still a tiny bit skeptical of both of them. 

 

Interesting. Not saying you're wrong.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

How much would you move that up if you draft a draft slot (ie instead of single picks, we draft the group of picks)

Not sure what you mean? What is a "group of picks"? Do you mean if I draft the #1 slot so I get 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01? I've never seen that or done that I don't know how to value the entire group. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I also dont see Lawrence as a tier one player in 2QB leagues as I dont think Burrow is (yet) either. You have to prove something in the NFL to get there in my view.

Tier 1 would be Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Watson, Allen and maybe Herbert although I would like to see more from him as well before being totally sure on him. He put up fantastic numbers as a rookie though. Better than Mayfield and other good rookie seasons for a QB lately.

At RB its CMC, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Barkley (for those with high risk tolerance).

WR is more difficult as there have been so many good WR to enter the league recently. The top guys Adams and Hopkins getting a bit older now.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I thought AJ Brown would be worth at least two 1st round picks in dynasty PPR, but maybe not? I was just offered 2021 1.12 & 1.05 for my AJB & my 2021 1.09. I'll pass

That's a horrible offer.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I thought AJ Brown would be worth at least two 1st round picks in dynasty PPR, but maybe not? I was just offered 2021 1.12 & 1.05 for my AJB & my 2021 1.09. I'll pass

It's a pass, but I don't think it's a horrible offer. I think the top WR at 1.5 will likely be at least on par with Brown by sometime in 2022. This WR class is loaded. Doesn't mean I'm considering moving Brown though.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

It's a pass, but I don't think it's a horrible offer. I think the top WR at 1.5 will likely be at least on par with Brown by sometime in 2022. This WR class is loaded. Doesn't mean I'm considering moving Brown though.

There is no way I move AJB, a proven young stud, for the 1.05.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Mahomes, Watson

McCaffrey, Barkley, Taylor, Cooks

That's my Tier1 of players. Kyler and Allen are in the next tier. I'm still a tiny bit skeptical of both of them. 

 

I know Brandin Cooks had a good year this year but with Watson unhappy and likely moving on this seems like a stretch to move him all the way into a Tier 1 for a dynasty start up

 

 

 

(yes I am joking and assume you mean Dalvin)

  • Laughing 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I thought AJ Brown would be worth at least two 1st round picks in dynasty PPR, but maybe not? I was just offered 2021 1.12 & 1.05 for my AJB & my 2021 1.09. I'll pass

Tell him to get that ish outta there. 

  • Laughing 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I thought AJ Brown would be worth at least two 1st round picks in dynasty PPR, but maybe not? I was just offered 2021 1.12 & 1.05 for my AJB & my 2021 1.09. I'll pass

I'd have to get 2 of the first 3 or 4 1st round rookie picks to even think about moving AJB. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I also dont see Lawrence as a tier one player in 2QB leagues as I dont think Burrow is (yet) either. You have to prove something in the NFL to get there in my view.

Tier 1 would be Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Watson, Allen and maybe Herbert although I would like to see more from him as well before being totally sure on him. He put up fantastic numbers as a rookie though. Better than Mayfield and other good rookie seasons for a QB lately.

At RB its CMC, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Barkley (for those with high risk tolerance).

WR is more difficult as there have been so many good WR to enter the league recently. The top guys Adams and Hopkins getting a bit older now.

I know people may think I'm nuts, but I'm willing to bet that Akers will be considered in that top tier this time next year. If I was drafting a dynasty team today he would be a huge target for me.

  • Love 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, kutta said:

I know people may think I'm nuts, but I'm willing to bet that Akers will be considered in that top tier this time next year. If I was drafting a dynasty team today he would be a huge target for me.

It isn't crazy.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, kutta said:

I know people may think I'm nuts, but I'm willing to bet that Akers will be considered in that top tier this time next year. If I was drafting a dynasty team today he would be a huge target for me.

I don't think you're nuts at all. I'd view him as Tier1 as well if it wasn't for the production difference in receiving between those top4 of mine and Akers. Once he proves that, it's RB1 overall ceiling. 

  • Like 2
  • Thinking 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, kutta said:

I know people may think I'm nuts, but I'm willing to bet that Akers will be considered in that top tier this time next year. If I was drafting a dynasty team today he would be a huge target for me.

The competition for that upper tier is stiff is my only hesitation. I'm of the opinion that in my almost 10 years playing  dynasty that we have reached a high point for quality top tier RB's. Which makes sense when you consider we've had two all time RB classes 2 out of the last 4 drafts. But with that 2017 class hitting 26-27 years old this time next season, basically the fantasy equivalent of middle aged,  I would anticipate a few of this last years rookie class moving up the totem pole.

As is Akers is already a likely first round startup pick and might be in redraft, I know I'm doing my first redraft of the year and I took Akers at 2.2 and only did not at 1.11 because I did not think he'd got 12/13.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Not sure what you mean? What is a "group of picks"? Do you mean if I draft the #1 slot so I get 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01? I've never seen that or done that I don't know how to value the entire group. 

Yep, that. I’m not sure how to value it either but have a month to figure it out.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

I'd have to get 2 of the first 3 or 4 1st round rookie picks to even think about moving AJB. 

Man, this guy must really want AJB from me. He said we "have to get a deal done" lol no we don't. I asked him if there was any way he would put Diggs in a deal if I am moving AJB & he sent this...His Diggs, 1.12, Zach Moss, 4.03 & 4.04 for my AJB, Tua & 1.09. That's not an offer I want either. Sure, I have Lamar @ QB, but I want to move him & my only other QB is Cousins. (Start 1)

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Helaire-ious said:

Man, this guy must really want AJB from me. He said we "have to get a deal done" lol no we don't. I asked him if there was any way he would put Diggs in a deal if I am moving AJB & he sent this...His Diggs, 1.12, Zach Moss, 4.03 & 4.04 for my AJB, Tua & 1.09. That's not an offer I want either. Sure, I have Lamar @ QB, but I want to move him & my only other QB is Cousins. (Start 1)

It doesn’t seem like he’s grasping the value of AJB very well

  • Like 1
  • Laughing 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.

Shhh...they're all rolling. Especially with youth.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.

The list of Rams’ RBs that this applies to is pretty long alone.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.

Couple things:

*I think NFL teams are starting to get smarter with rookie RB usage - start them off slow to keep them fresh until late then unleash them.

*Akers ascent was held back by a midseason injury - that's why he was more like a flip of the light switch instead of gradually having more added to his plate

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Then he sent 1.12 + Diggs for my AJB & Claypool

But you probably got Claypool with a second rounder!

Seriously. Guy is trying to get over on you or has weird logic behind his moves. Leave it alone. 

  • Laughing 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.

I don't have time to look this up so maybe this will keep me to it, but how many of those are high profile, top talent, over 3k yards from college, 21 year old rookies?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I don't have time to look this up so maybe this will keep me to it, but how many of those are high profile, top talent, over 3k yards from college, 21 year old rookies?

I mean I'm not sure how many fit that exact criteria, and if we add guys with 3-letter names first names that have a gun model spelled in the beginning of their last name the list likely gets even shorter :P.  But we're talking 1st, 2nd, 3rd round NFL picks here.  Not just random Salvon Ahmeds and the like.

And let's not pretend that Akers' college production was a GOOD thing.  His lousy college efficiency was the biggest knock on him coming into the league.

I have no problem liking Akers but he is so far away from the profile of anything I would consider a tier 1 dynasty player right now, even if he does eventually become one.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I mean I'm not sure how many fit that exact criteria, and if we add guys with 3-letter names first names that have a gun model spelled in the beginning of their last name the list likely gets even shorter :P.  But we're talking 1st, 2nd, 3rd round NFL picks here.  Not just random Salvon Ahmeds and the like.

And let's not pretend that Akers' college production was a GOOD thing.  His lousy college efficiency was the biggest knock on him coming into the league.

I have no problem liking Akers but he is so far away from the profile of anything I would consider a tier 1 dynasty player right now, even if he does eventually become one.

The thing I like is that he was thrown into the starting role off the bat and got hurt. It took a while for him to recover and to pick up the offense (all the rookies were in this same situation due to COVID). Once he got his chance, he ran with it and really proved himself.

McVay has called him "special," and McVay has a history of riding one back that he likes and believes in (see Gurley and Akers at the end of the year).

It is just shaping up, IMO, that Akers is going to have a HUGE workload next year, and he looks like he can handle it. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I mean I'm not sure how many fit that exact criteria, and if we add guys with 3-letter names first names that have a gun model spelled in the beginning of their last name the list likely gets even shorter :P.  But we're talking 1st, 2nd, 3rd round NFL picks here.  Not just random Salvon Ahmeds and the like.

And let's not pretend that Akers' college production was a GOOD thing.  His lousy college efficiency was the biggest knock on him coming into the league.

I have no problem liking Akers but he is so far away from the profile of anything I would consider a tier 1 dynasty player right now, even if he does eventually become one.

I seem to be remembering Akers as having excellent efficiency and a lousy oline. I could be mistaken. But I do know for sure Akers made a lot of nothing more times then he ran through open lanes. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, bmsarvis said:

I seem to be remembering Akers as having excellent efficiency and a lousy oline. I could be mistaken. But I do know for sure Akers made a lot of nothing more times then he ran through open lanes. 

People like to use the FSU excuse but the truth is while FSU was awful by FSU standards, they weren't awful by college football standards.  Plenty of prospects come from worse teams with worse O-lines.  Keshawn Vaughn, for instance, had nearly identical college stats to Akers while playing for Vandy against SEC competition.

Akers is a fine prospect for this year and currently looks like a good swing to take at his current late 2nd round startup value.  To me though that is still a long ways from a tier one dynasty player in the same way I wouldn't have called Julius Jones, Jeremy Hill, Miles Sanders, or any of those guys tier 1 dynasty players even after coming off basically better versions of Cam's rookie season.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/3/2021 at 4:35 PM, Helaire-ious said:

I guess we shall see what he says.I'm ok with Golladay for 1.08, but maybe I'd do it now if he took Engram from me instead of Goedrt in his offer...

KeepTradeCut says it's fair (assuming you enter Mid 1st as the 1.08 and Early 3rd as the 3.03, as you can't specify the 1.08 or 3.03 exact pick).   

I think Waller for Allen is fair, and I think the 1.08 for Golladay is fine.  Goedert for a 3rd is giving him away.  He'd either need to take Engram instead of Goedert, or change that 3rd to a 2nd to get closer. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, wlwiles said:

KeepTradeCut says it's fair (assuming you enter Mid 1st as the 1.08 and Early 3rd as the 3.03, as you can't specify the 1.08 or 3.03 exact pick).   

I think Waller for Allen is fair (I'd lean Waller), and I think the 1.08 for Golladay is fine.  Goedert for a 3rd is giving him away.  He'd either need to take Engram instead of Goedert, or change that 3rd to a 2nd to get closer. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

People like to use the FSU excuse but the truth is while FSU was awful by FSU standards, they weren't awful by college football standards.  Plenty of prospects come from worse teams with worse O-lines.  Keshawn Vaughn, for instance, had nearly identical college stats to Akers while playing for Vandy against SEC competition.

Akers is a fine prospect for this year and currently looks like a good swing to take at his current late 2nd round startup value.  To me though that is still a long ways from a tier one dynasty player in the same way I wouldn't have called Julius Jones, Jeremy Hill, Miles Sanders, or any of those guys tier 1 dynasty players even after coming off basically better versions of Cam's rookie season.

I agree we can't put him in Tier 1 yet. I'm just saying that next year at this time I think it will be a different story.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Define tier 1?

Up earlier, @Biabreakable defined the Tier 1 RB's as: CMC, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Barkley (for those with high risk tolerance).

I'd probably agree with that. It wouldn't surprise me to see Akers included in that group next year.

Edit: In fact, I'm not sure I'd trade Akers straight up for Chubb right now. And I may not take Barkley for him.

Edited by kutta
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...