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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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21 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Thanks, missed the earlier definition.

I don't consider Chubb in that tier one category myself, the situation with Hunt is worse for Hunt but still drains Chubb as well.

My favorite article on this site is Dan Hindery's trade value chart and maybe it's my favorite because I usually agree with a lot of it as I do in this RB rankings were he's got Akers at 6, ahead of Chubb and with Taylor as part of the 5 above him with the other RB's you listed. I agreed with all of it myself.

Which all goes back to why I asked what defines tier 1. You look at Hindery's list and he works out to RB6, player 11 and again I'm pretty much in the same range,would probably put Akers somewhere between player 10-12 in normal PPR leagues. I guess that's not quite tier yet.

Like I said earlier on Akers if he does not rise up more next year it might not be based on his play not reaching level some of us think he can reach but there are just a ton of really talented young RB's, mainly from last year's class that could vault him.

I'm looking for that trade value chart. Interestingly, FBG rankings have Akers as the #15 dynasty RB (four rankings - 12, 17, 18, 9). 

Edit - found Hindery's trade value chart - thanks for pointing that out. It's interesting.

Edited by kutta
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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

If you are having trouble finding the Hindery article(I know I do) I think he posted it on February 1 and I usually search by author name.

Relatively easy, fellas. Just click "Current Articles" under the "Articles" section at the top of the site and go to the leftward scroll box. Look for Hindery on February 1.

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2021-dynasty-trade-value-chart-february

Edited by rockaction
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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I wouldn't consider either Chubb or Akers tier 1, or really even that close to it.  Same tier as CMC?  Seems mega mega mega steep for either of them.

Isn't CMC generally in a tier by himself? Like, it would take Barkley and a really good player to get him pre-injury, even? Or have CMC's injuries lessened his luster?

Because his 2019 was a season for the ages.

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8 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Zac “I’m telling you dude he’s really good” Stacy 

He was pretty good. He had RB 1 numbers for a stretch of games. 

Really good or special would be a stretch but he was good enough to keep an offense thats not very creative on schedule. Fred Jackson similar level of talent in my view but Jackson got more opportunity than Stacy did.

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16 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Isn't CMC generally in a tier by himself? Like, it would take Barkley and a really good player to get him pre-injury, even? Or have CMC's injuries lessened his luster?

Because his 2019 was a season for the ages.

Even if CMC is then I wouldn't put him in tier 2 with guys like Barkley/Kamara either.

I've made this point in years past, and it's come roaring back again lately.  These 2nd year RBs coming off a half-proven good rookie year are one of the worst returning assets in fantasy football.  They cost insane amounts and they bust at a wickedly high rate. 

I'm generally a pretty risk embracing owner but the idea of grabbing a guy like Akers in the range that a guy like Barkley is going in startup drafts is way more than I'd be willing to value him at.

 

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

He was pretty good. He had RB 1 numbers for a stretch of games. 

Really good or special would be a stretch but he was good enough to keep an offense thats not very creative on schedule. Fred Jackson similar level of talent in my view but Jackson got more opportunity than Stacy did.

Whoa. Fred Jackson was totally different than Zac Stacy even fantasy-wise if my memory serves. Jackson had a year where he was RB1 the whole way through. Stacy finished up a run of games one year as a good RB, but never at the consistent level that Jackson had.

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Yeah Im not ready to say Akers or even some other young promising RB like Miles Sanders are tier 1 but thats cool if some of you think he belongs there and feel excited about drafting him high.

As far as last years RB I still like Swift and Taylor the most out of them but Im not ready to call either of them tier 1 yet either.

Tier 1 is a RB who I think could realistically have a 2k combined yard season or something outstanding like that. Elliot has done that and maybe he should still be considered tier 1 as well.

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

Even if CMC is then I wouldn't put him in tier 2 with guys like Barkley/Kamara either.

I've made this point in years past, and it's come roaring back again lately.  These 2nd year RBs coming off a half-proven good rookie year are one of the worst returning assets in fantasy football.  They cost insane amounts and they bust at a wickedly high rate. 

I'm generally a pretty risk embracing owner but the idea of grabbing a guy like Akers in the range that a guy like Barkley is going in startup drafts is way more than I'd be willing to value him at.

I don't disagree. At all.

I don't really do startups so I don't have a Tier One offhand, but Akers would likely not be on it, though he'd be in the upper third of backs, I'd imagine.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Whoa. Fred Jackson was totally different than Zac Stacy even fantasy-wise if my memory serves. Jackson had a year where he was RB1 the whole way through. Stacy finished up a run of games one year as a good RB, but never at the consistent level that Jackson had.

I mean the style and type of player they were than the stats. Stacy was a RB 1 for something like a 10 game strech IIRC he just didnt have repeat seasons of some usefulness that Jackson had.

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6 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Antonio Brown's value? 

Generally I would rather have the roster spot.  Keeping him just keeps you from taking a chance on someone young that is not a risk for suspension at any moment.  But if you are a contender I might be able to imagine saving a spot for him. 

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30 minutes ago, Jail said:

Generally I would rather have the roster spot.  Keeping him just keeps you from taking a chance on someone young that is not a risk for suspension at any moment.  But if you are a contender I might be able to imagine saving a spot for him. 

What lottery tickets would you roster over him, though?

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10 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

What lottery tickets would you roster over him, though?

Lots of young ones - deeper on my depth chart I chose players like his teammates, G Davis,  and Coutee over him. I think there's a time and a place to acquire veteran depth with startable upside (i.e. Beasley), but we are months away from that time. 

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3 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

. The suspension threat will always be there with Brown.

I don't view him that way in the least.

He's got a specific court case that could lead to a suspension and if the optics of the case were bad could lead to him never playing again. If that case ever makes it to court that could be an issue but the NFL did investigate that case and never said that whatever comes out a potential trial would lead to AB getting suspended . What they said was if anything new they did not know about when they did their investigation came out it could lead to a suspension. But even with that I don't think that trial would impact him next season and due to AB's age his value is year to year anyway.

But AB's had one suspension his entire career where he was out of the league over a sexual assault case and lost his freaking mind. Basically a mental breakdown.  He's not some kind of Josh Gordon type of addict or something constantly in and out of suspensions. Just one very big potential court case looming.

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As far as the tier definition it likely should be tier 1a that I am talking about. There are always one to five RB that perform head and shoulders above the rest of the top 12 RB. So those are the guys I am talking about. For rookie players tier 1 is a less lofty goal as I am only looking for top 12 performances from those players when calling them tier 1.

There is that additional step between the very top and the guys who can borderline do it one season maybe.

menobrown is probably right that Chubb wont have enough opportunity to be in this tier splitting with Hunt. I think he could be if he got the Lions share of the opportunity, but Hunt is very good himself and he is getting the more premium looks in the passing game that Chubb would need to compete with the likes of CMC Cook and Kamara.

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17 minutes ago, roarlions said:

What type of rookie pick or WR/TE would make up for the difference in value between Michael Thomas and Jonathan Taylor?

I am not really sure which one I would have as more valuable so maybe nothing?

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18 minutes ago, roarlions said:

What type of rookie pick or WR/TE would make up for the difference in value between Michael Thomas and Jonathan Taylor?

The Hindery trade value chart is a great guide for this kind of thing, as it's just one man's opinion it's not law but again a solid guide. Per that chart you'd need to throw in a mid first, but he has Taylor as a tier 1 player.

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49 minutes ago, roarlions said:

What type of rookie pick or WR/TE would make up for the difference in value between Michael Thomas and Jonathan Taylor?

I much prefer Taylor. I'd need a top3 RB from this class plus MT. So basically 1.03 at worst for me to make up that gap. 

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Just now, Zyphros said:

I much prefer Taylor. I'd need a top3 RB from this class plus MT. So basically 1.03 at worst for me to make up that gap. 

You know.....I agree in much preferring Taylor as I value RBs higher than WR, all things equal. I would want at least a 1.03-1.06 if I even considered trading Taylor. 

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47 minutes ago, menobrown said:

The Hindery trade value chart is a great guide for this kind of thing, as it's just one man's opinion it's not law but again a solid guide. Per that chart you'd need to throw in a mid first, but he has Taylor as a tier 1 player.

MT + 1.05 for just Taylor? Too much IMO

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I'm still trying to figure out a way to acquire Waller without overpaying by A LOT in dynasty PPR.

His owner sent me a new offer of his Waller, 2021 1.08 & 2021 3.03 for my Keenan Allen, Engram, Golladay & 3.09. I declined, but should I have taken it? Maybe just give up & try to get Kittle lol

 

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Before posting my question about Thomas and Taylor I checked 6 or 7 recent dynasty rankings online and the majority definitely had Taylor higher than Thomas. Most had Taylor ranked in top 5 or 10 overall while Thomas was usually around 20, give or take. So it's interesting to hear the divergent appraisals of Taylor in here, at least in comparison to Thomas.

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2 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I'm still trying to figure out a way to acquire Waller without overpaying by A LOT in dynasty PPR.

His owner sent me a new offer of his Waller, 2021 1.08 & 2021 3.03 for my Keenan Allen, Engram, Golladay & 3.09. I declined, but should I have taken it? Maybe just give up & try to get Kittle lol

 

If you really want Waller that's probably a close enough deal to take. But then, I think Engram might be fantasy's most overrated player.

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How do people view Calvin Ridley? He broke out and looks to be that future centerpiece, but is he actually a dominant #1? I doubt it, some don't. He's a guy I can see being valued all over the place a bit. In PPR he's WR3 this past year so it's not like he isn't elite. But that team looks to be on the downswing. 

What's the difference between him and Deebo? Sutton? JuJu? DJ Moore? All who are young (or youngish, entering their prime) and have broken out with the look to be good WR2 type floors. 

Then you have the young up and coming studs who have yet to establish as much like Higgins, Lamb, Aiyuk and Claypool. All of them seem to have higher ceilings but haven't quite established their floors yet like the ones above. 

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12 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If you really want Waller that's probably a close enough deal to take. But then, I think Engram might be fantasy's most overrated player.

I view Engram as a throw in at this point. It's the Allen part I'm struggling with. Don't want to upgrade at TE, but then I am hurt at WR dealing both of Allen & Golladay

Edited by Helaire-ious
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1 minute ago, Helaire-ious said:

I view Engram as a throw in at this point. It's the Allen part I'm struggling with. Don't want to upgrade at TE, but then I am hurt at WR dealing both of Allen & Golladay

I don’t think I’d make that trade, but it seems fair to me. Golladay is worth about the 1.08, IMO, and Allen for Waller is pretty fair too. The rest is just noise.

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Just now, kutta said:

I don’t think I’d make that trade, but it seems fair to me. Golladay is worth about the 1.08, IMO, and Allen for Waller is pretty fair too. The rest is just noise.

ANy reason why you don't make it then? I'm going to try to get him to add Juju on his side.

I also own Claypool so I'd then try to deal Juju for another WR or a RB

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9 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

How do people view Calvin Ridley? He broke out and looks to be that future centerpiece, but is he actually a dominant #1? I doubt it, some don't. He's a guy I can see being valued all over the place a bit. In PPR he's WR3 this past year so it's not like he isn't elite. But that team looks to be on the downswing. 

What's the difference between him and Deebo? Sutton? JuJu? DJ Moore? All who are young (or youngish, entering their prime) and have broken out with the look to be good WR2 type floors. 

Then you have the young up and coming studs who have yet to establish as much like Higgins, Lamb, Aiyuk and Claypool. All of them seem to have higher ceilings but haven't quite established their floors yet like the ones above. 

Big fan. Would easily take him over Deebo/Sutton/JuJu/DJ Moore. Well maybe not easily over Moore.

I would take him over Aiyuk and Claypool. And probably Higgins, who I really like.

If I'm not driving the Lamb bandwagon I at least have a first class ticket. I'd still possibly trade Lamb to get Ridley.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

ANy reason why you don't make it then? I'm going to try to get him to add Juju on his side.

I also own Claypool so I'd then try to deal Juju for another WR or a RB

I really like Allen and Golladay, more than most. I’m a Lions fan so I really want to see Golladay thrive. And I own Herbert so if I had Allen too, I probably wouldn’t trade him.

So it’s more personal preference, but I think it’s fair.

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17 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

How do people view Calvin Ridley? He broke out and looks to be that future centerpiece, but is he actually a dominant #1? I doubt it, some don't. He's a guy I can see being valued all over the place a bit. In PPR he's WR3 this past year so it's not like he isn't elite. But that team looks to be on the downswing. 

What's the difference between him and Deebo? Sutton? JuJu? DJ Moore? All who are young (or youngish, entering their prime) and have broken out with the look to be good WR2 type floors. 

Then you have the young up and coming studs who have yet to establish as much like Higgins, Lamb, Aiyuk and Claypool. All of them seem to have higher ceilings but haven't quite established their floors yet like the ones above. 

I would take him over everyone you listed & I own Claypool & Aiyuk.

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45 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I'm still trying to figure out a way to acquire Waller without overpaying by A LOT in dynasty PPR.

His owner sent me a new offer of his Waller, 2021 1.08 & 2021 3.03 for my Keenan Allen, Engram, Golladay & 3.09. I declined, but should I have taken it? Maybe just give up & try to get Kittle lol

 

I think this is still way too much but I have Golladay as a top 12ish WR.  To me its an overpay and I wouldn't do it.

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38 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

How do people view Calvin Ridley? He broke out and looks to be that future centerpiece, but is he actually a dominant #1? I doubt it, some don't. He's a guy I can see being valued all over the place a bit. In PPR he's WR3 this past year so it's not like he isn't elite. But that team looks to be on the downswing. 

What's the difference between him and Deebo? Sutton? JuJu? DJ Moore? All who are young (or youngish, entering their prime) and have broken out with the look to be good WR2 type floors. 

Then you have the young up and coming studs who have yet to establish as much like Higgins, Lamb, Aiyuk and Claypool. All of them seem to have higher ceilings but haven't quite established their floors yet like the ones above. 

I have Ridley significantly ahead of all those guys you listed.  Ridley has shown consistency where most of those others have not on a game by game basis.

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On 2/5/2021 at 1:16 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

I wouldn't consider either Chubb or Akers tier 1, or really even that close to it.  Same tier as CMC?  Seems mega mega mega steep for either of them.

Concur. Chubb could be that value were Hunt to depart or sustain significant injury, but so long as the backfield is split he’s not getting enough touches to be on par with a healthy Saquan or CMC. Debatable whether he’s equal to Zeke (pre Dak injury Eliott was putting up solid numbers. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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On 2/2/2021 at 9:41 AM, menobrown said:

We could have a whole thread related to tough FFPC cuts.  I'm a fantasy grinder. If you are posting and reading these boards right now you probably are as well. This means we are more likely to fill out the back end of our rosters better then most.

This along with examining superflex QB availability(which I've never played in before) got me thinking the other day if the FFPC format I mainly play is tailored to my strengths or worse for me? It's kind of complicated, wondered what others thought.

Take for example QB's. We had a thread recently were we ranked the top 7 QB's. I have 8 dynasty teams have at least one of them on every team, own 6 of the 7 in total, the one I don't own is Lamar who I drafted in the third and fourth round of drafts and cut him in one league and traded him in another.  Between the other 6 QB's I own Mahomes(3x), Kyler (3x), Watson (2x), Herbert(2x), and Dak and Allen once each. The highest draft capital I paid was 2.3 and most money I spent in FA for any of them was $71. This leads me to my though which was  went this was " I can find stud QB's on the cheap, if I took this skillset to SF it would be a boon". But would reality be that SF would be worse for me since these kind of QB's might never be so cheap and instead what I would lose is competitive advantage of one QB leagues were I've been able to acquire stud QB's so cheaply?  I think this is the more likely scenario.

And on roster space. I was thinking if I consistently am doing a better job filling out the back end of my roster would I not benefit by playing in leagues with larger roster spaces? Seems easy to think that way but the more I think about it maybe not because the larger roster spots would lead to less available FA's and make it more difficult for me to use FA to my advantage.

My thought right now is I'm playing in exactly the format I should be playing.

This is what I'm doing and it is working. I continue to leverage that advantage in standard that you speak of, and I agree you should continue that approach. Specifically for SF, this is what I've found. No you're not going to get QBs on the cheap the same way you can in standard, and you shouldn't expect to. But if you go that route anyway, you will still likely find solid production for (pretty) cheap, or cheap enough.

The thing is that this will come with an *extra* payoff relative to standard leagues, which is you will be *gaining* value at other positions. When other owners are drafting QB2s you should be taking another stud WR/RB (my opinion anyway, lots of different ways to skin a cat)

So far I have tried to at least stay elite at my QB1 spot and employ the small ball strategy with my QB2/QB3 until such a time as I can upgrade. In my 7 SF FFPC leagues, I have Josh Allen x3, Mahomes, Kyler (& just upgraded my QB2 to Wilson after I had taken Brady in the startup last year in the 9th round - that is small ball), and I have Hurts as my QB2 now to be paired with Mahomes in one and Allen in another. I got Hurts via smallball strategy and now his value is going to skyrocket if Wentz gets moved.

The roster crunch is even more pronounced with SF, and this means that those skills of filling out the back end of your roster, as you described, are even more important. And since you are sharp at those skills, *that* advantage is only more pronounced in SF, not less. 

 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

The Hindery trade value chart is a great guide for this kind of thing, as it's just one man's opinion it's not law but again a solid guide. Per that chart you'd need to throw in a mid first, but he has Taylor as a tier 1 player.

Yeah I've been looking at his chart ever since he first started doing it. My first dynasty league was with him back in like 2013. Not gospel but I think the approach is a bullseye.

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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah I've been looking at his chart ever since he first started doing it. My first dynasty league was with him back in like 2013. Not gospel but I think the approach is a bullseye.

I use Hindery’s trade chart along with 3 others and come up with an “average” of these 4 trade charts. With Excel, it’s easy to do. Eventually I plan to decide which 1 or 2 come closest to my “average” and then only need to use that 1 or 2. But, will take some amount of time to determine who’s is most accurate. It’s fun....and I have the time!

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14 minutes ago, robb said:

I use Hindery’s trade chart along with 3 others and come up with an “average” of these 4 trade charts. With Excel, it’s easy to do. Eventually I plan to decide which 1 or 2 come closest to my “average” and then only need to use that 1 or 2. But, will take some amount of time to determine who’s is most accurate. It’s fun....and I have the time!

What other 3 charts do you use? Please share :) 

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1 hour ago, robb said:

I use Hindery’s trade chart along with 3 others and come up with an “average” of these 4 trade charts. With Excel, it’s easy to do. Eventually I plan to decide which 1 or 2 come closest to my “average” and then only need to use that 1 or 2. But, will take some amount of time to determine who’s is most accurate. It’s fun....and I have the time!

Yeah same here. I add my own gut adjustments here and there but they serve as a solid barometer. 

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6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Big fan. Would easily take him over Deebo/Sutton/JuJu/DJ Moore. Well maybe not easily over Moore.

I would take him over Aiyuk and Claypool. And probably Higgins, who I really like.

If I'm not driving the Lamb bandwagon I at least have a first class ticket. I'd still possibly trade Lamb to get Ridley.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Gally said:

I have Ridley significantly ahead of all those guys you listed.  Ridley has shown consistency where most of those others have not on a game by game basis.

What's the gap? A mid 1st? A late 1st? multiple future picks? As someone not THAT high on Ridley I'd prefer to keep the 1st and the solid WR2 or depth. But especially in solidation leagues like FFPC or ones where studs are even more important, what's the gap between those that I listed (all of them are viewed as top30 dynasty WR's) and Calvin Ridley? 

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I’m trying to move Burrow and or Tua before cut down in FFPC (1 QB). Everyone is fairly stingy this time of year before cut downs. Hoping to get a 3rd for Tua or a 2nd for Burrow. Maybe Burrow for piece like AJ Dillon or RoJo? Thoughts

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7 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

I’m trying to move Burrow and or Tua before cut down in FFPC (1 QB). Everyone is fairly stingy this time of year before cut downs. Hoping to get a 3rd for Tua or a 2nd for Burrow. Maybe Burrow for piece like AJ Dillon or RoJo? Thoughts

No way in any of my leagues am I giving up a potential starting back for Burrow until I find out exactly how their situations are sussing out. But FFPC, that's a different story than my 40-man roster league. I'm just saying on the surface, no way.

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2 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

I’m trying to move Burrow and or Tua before cut down in FFPC (1 QB). Everyone is fairly stingy this time of year before cut downs. Hoping to get a 3rd for Tua or a 2nd for Burrow. Maybe Burrow for piece like AJ Dillon or RoJo? Thoughts

I think you will have a hard time getting what you are asking but got a better shot on the picks.

Tua's zero value to me in this format but I am admittedly lower on him then most. But he was not even drafted that high last year in the rookie drafts when he was not taking up one of your 14 spots. May be to early to call him a bust, not to early to be lower on him for fantasy. If you got a mid round pick I'd think you did well.

Burrow's someone of value, but hard to see someone giving up one of those RB's. Maybe you find someone to give you a second, only takes one buyer and sometimes someone new to this format will overvalue QB's.

All leagues are different but last year after Dak had a top 5 fantasy season I shopped him to no avail, finally posted on the league message board I'd take any second. Best offer I got was a late third and I think Dak's value was higher then Burrows now. This same league I paid 2.10 for Mahome's after his rookie year, only time I ever paid for a QB before cuts, perhaps you find that owner out there who feels like Burrow the way I felt about Mahomes. I don't think asking for a second for Burrow is insulting, I just think you will have a hard time getting it.

Market is also really small in my FFPC leagues for QB's and by that I mean if you scan rosters you don't see a lot of teams in need of a QB. I've been looking at moving Herbert in some leagues and since I try and offer trades that make sense to the other team I scanned rosters and hard to find many teams with need.

 

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2 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

I’m trying to move Burrow and or Tua before cut down in FFPC (1 QB). Everyone is fairly stingy this time of year before cut downs. Hoping to get a 3rd for Tua or a 2nd for Burrow. Maybe Burrow for piece like AJ Dillon or RoJo? Thoughts

In those small roster leagues I don't see anybody giving up anything of value for those guys at this point.  They really don't have any value

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3 hours ago, Gally said:

In those small roster leagues I don't see anybody giving up anything of value for those guys at this point.  They really don't have any value

I'm not sure you could get a third for Tua in a 25-30 man roster start 1QB leagues.

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1 minute ago, bmsarvis said:

Fwiw I was just offer burrow and tee Higgins for my josh Allen 1,3,4, and 5 and scoffed at it when I seen it. Not sure if that helps you put a value on burrow or not but it’s all I have to offer. 
 

I am not sure if everything listed would be enough to give up Allen let alone including a first, 3rd, 4th and 5th with Allen.  

 

Burrow has a major knee injury and Allen was a top 2-3 QB this year in most leagues.  This belongs in the worst trade offer thread.  

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