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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I could see Miami. Buffalo would be solid, but his TD rate would take a sizable hit. I’d be shocked if SEA signed him.

Carson is a UFA and Carroll has made it very clear what he thinks about the run game.

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4 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Carson is a UFA and Carroll has made it very clear what he thinks about the run game.

They have a lot of needs and a lot money tied up in their top guys. (I don’t know how many of those guys are cut or restructure candidates, however.) On top of that, signing Jones to a big deal is an obviously bad move, IMO. I don’t see SEA making that kind of mistake. I see them reuniting with Mike Davis (or signing someone like him), drafting a RB in the second or third, and/or re-signing Carson.

I could be wrong, of course. But I’d be surprised. 

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14 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are the odds he suits up, if they do? Not great, IMO.

Unless a player has an existing health condition that requires scrutiny I try to stay out of  the injury prediction business. Granted he's not been full strength every week but he's played 84.5% of his available games since he came into the league and that's not bad for a RB IMO.

I also think if he returns to GB  that his role will look a little different paired with Dillon then it did paired with Jamaal.  Dillon might take on a little more of the grinding role which could help him. Also might take more then a few TD's away from him.

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Hey Guys,

Dan Hindery said some folks have had trouble finding the Trade Value Chart. 

Can you please be super specific and let us know exactly where you normally see it and now can't see it?

We LOVE that feature and nothing has changed on our end that we aware of. 

We just want to know exactly what you mean. Thanks. 

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Just now, menobrown said:

Unless a player has an existing health condition that requires scrutiny I try to stay out of  the injury prediction business. Granted he's not been full strength every week but he's played 84.5% of his available games since he came into the league and that's not bad for a RB IMO.

I also think if he returns to GB  that his role will look a little different paired with Dillon then it did paired with Jamaal.  Dillon might take on a little more of the grinding role which could help him. Also might take more then a few TD's away from him.

I meant to say that he’s likely to hold out.   

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

They have a lot of needs and a lot money tied up in their top guys. (I don’t know how many of those guys are cut or restructure candidates, however.) On top of that, signing Jones to a big deal is an obviously bad move, IMO. I don’t see SEA making that kind of mistake. I see them reuniting with Mike Davis (or signing someone like him), drafting a RB in the second or third, and/or re-signing Carson.

I could be wrong, of course. But I’d be surprised. 

Yea I'd be shocked if Seattle was trying to pay Aaron Jones. They do need a RB about as much as any team in the league, even if Penny is back to 100%, but I don't think Aaron Jones is their kind of RB in addition to the pay.

But I also think RB's are going to feel the biggest brunt of the cap squeeze. We've been seeing RB pay increase for the top tier players the last few years but I think this year it recedes. When money gets tight that's the position I think most teams will try to save a buck.

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6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

They have a lot of needs and a lot money tied up in their top guys. (I don’t know how many of those guys are cut or restructure candidates, however.) On top of that, signing Jones to a big deal is an obviously bad move, IMO. I don’t see SEA making that kind of mistake. I see them reuniting with Mike Davis (or signing someone like him), drafting a RB in the second or third, and/or re-signing Carson.

I could be wrong, of course. But I’d be surprised. 

Agree. They also seemingly still have faith in Penny, who should be healthy. Not saying they can count on him to be a workhorse, but if they are going to count on him to be a meaningful committee member, it reduces the likelihood of signing another workhorse.

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5 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Hey Guys,

Dan Hindery said some folks have had trouble finding the Trade Value Chart. 

Can you please be super specific and let us know exactly where you normally see it and now can't see it?

We LOVE that feature and nothing has changed on our end that we aware of. 

We just want to know exactly what you mean. Thanks. 

Joe, I could not find it earlier unless I put in Hindery's name in the search button.

But now I see it located on the home page, right under the popular features plus when you select articles>dynasty it's right at the top. Hard to miss now.

And yes it's a great feature and I enjoyed using it as a bit of a time waster last week  to rank and evaluate my existing dynasty teams to get an idea of the market value of my teams.

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14 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

They have a lot of needs and a lot money tied up in their top guys. (I don’t know how many of those guys are cut or restructure candidates, however.) On top of that, signing Jones to a big deal is an obviously bad move, IMO. I don’t see SEA making that kind of mistake. I see them reuniting with Mike Davis (or signing someone like him), drafting a RB in the second or third, and/or re-signing Carson.

I could be wrong, of course. But I’d be surprised. 

Lockett, Duane Brown, Dunlap, Reed, Adams, and Diggs are UFA's after '21 with $68m in cap #'s between them with less than $10m in dead cap between all of them. If I were them I would not target Jones, but I also wouldn't plan on an offense built around the run either. They are acting like they are in a window, so I expect them to mkae window-like moves.

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:
8 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I meant to say that he’s likely to hold out.   

You can't really hold out anymore, not anything meaningful.

Exactly. Was about to post the same thing. The new CBA pretty much eliminated it.

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

You can't really hold out anymore, not anything meaningful.

What do you mean? Maybe I missed something, but players don’t have to sign the tender. Jones will do what he can, short of missing a year of service. If they franchise him and refuse to trade him to a team who will sign him, his season will look a lot like Melvin Gordon’s last season in SD. IMO.

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I think Williams is a guy other teams may target...he's a quality all-around RB and you won't have to give him a big deal so you won't have that exposure...he could still stay with Green Bay if they let Jones walk but Williams could have a nice bump in his fantasy value if he lands in a spot like Seattle or Miami.

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

What do you mean? Maybe I missed something, but players don’t have to sign the tender. Jones will do what he can, short of missing a year of service. If they franchise him and refuse to trade him to a team who will sign him, his season will look a lot like Melvin Gordon’s last season in SD. IMO.

You are right if he does not sign the tender he does not have to report but I think you are creating things to worry about and I put the odds of him missing anytime near 0%. He has no leverage, he's only made $3.8M in his career and is not in a position to start missing $675,000 a week.

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8 minutes ago, Boston said:

I think Williams is a guy other teams may target...he's a quality all-around RB and you won't have to give him a big deal so you won't have that exposure...he could still stay with Green Bay if they let Jones walk but Williams could have a nice bump in his fantasy value if he lands in a spot like Seattle or Miami.

I was just about to say, Seattle would be more likely to sign Williams than Jones, but unlikely they spend $ at the position.

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

You are right if he does not sign the tender he does not have to report but I think you are creating things to worry about and I put the odds of him missing anytime near 0%. He has no leverage, he's only made $3.8M in his career and is not in a position to start missing $675,000 a week.

You could be right. Best case for the Packers - he signs at the week 1 deadline, after missing all of camp. He has too much financial incentive not to play what cards he has. 

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I’m fairly certain Jones has been a top 5 rb the last two years. I think it’s safe to assume he’s playing elsewhere next year, but I don’t see his value changing much. Some team is going to pay him a lot of money and utilize him as such, and he’s one of the most dynamic backs in the league. I’m still very much on board, personally. 

He's been very TD dependent - I wouldn't be so sure his value doesn't change if he ends up in Miami or a similar team with a less potent offense than Green Bay. 

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He's been very TD dependent - I wouldn't be so sure his value doesn't change if he ends up in Miami or a similar team with a less potent offense than Green Bay. 

He’s very good at converting them, too. That’s means a lot. Some guys just have a nose for the end zone, and I’ve always felt Jones does despite not being a bigger back. I don’t have the numbers offhand, but there were so many times this season GB would be at the 1 yard line and Rodgers would throw for a TD. Jones could’ve easily had 15+ tds this season. True, he’ll likely be going to a less efficient offense than in GB. But it may be one that prefers to not get overly cute in the red zone, and the scoring opportunities could simply balance out. I mean, Myles Gaskin was a pretty solid fantasy back this season in Miami, and I think he’s pretty pedestrian overall. Now put Jones in that role. 

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16 hours ago, Shawnky said:

It's a startup and have been contemplating Sanders over Henry.  The 2 WRs are the other people I'm considering, but considering how things have unfolded, I can see 1 of them being available next round.  Lamb, Jefferson, and Swift went in the first 14 picks.  Has me scratching my head.

Jefferson and his 1400 yard rookie season is a slam-dunk first round startup pick. Lamb and his 1000 yard rookie year I can live with in the late first too. What scares me is starting up and grabbing, say, a 27 year old Derrick Henry when the league is excellently balanced in year 1. You could finish anywhere from 1.01-1.12. If you choose aging vets and things go south, you're staring at a rebuild in your league's 2nd season.

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9 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He’s very good at converting them, too. That’s means a lot. Some guys just have a nose for the end zone, and I’ve always felt Jones does despite not being a bigger back. I don’t have the numbers offhand, but there were so many times this season GB would be at the 1 yard line and Rodgers would throw for a TD. Jones could’ve easily had 15+ tds this season. True, he’ll likely be going to a less efficient offense than in GB. But it may be one that prefers to not get overly cute in the red zone, and the scoring opportunities could simply balance out. I mean, Myles Gaskin was a pretty solid fantasy back this season in Miami, and I think he’s pretty pedestrian overall. Now put Jones in that role. 

I'm not saying he'd bust leaving GB - but I'm not buying that his value doesn't take a hit. Aaron Rodgers may have "vutured" some of his TDs but he's also the reason why Jones had so many opportunities to show his "nose for the end-zone."

Gaskin was an ok fantasy producer, and sure Jones is a better talent - but I don't see any possible way that Jones gets the same amount of chances to score in Miami as he did in GB. That just doesn't make logical sense.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

He’s 26 and has missed games in 3 of his 4 seasons

I mean, to be fair, what top running backs don’t miss a game or two every year? It’s a brutal position. He didn’t miss a single game last year. In today’s landscape, that is pretty impressive. Look at this year alone-CMC, Saquon, Chubb, Dalvin, Carson, Kamara, Mixon, and I can keep going. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

but I'm not buying that his value doesn't take a hit.

Impossible to say that right now-maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. What if his snap share increases by 20% on his new team? Jamaal Williams was still cutting into it heavily in Green Bay. He could replicate his GB numbers with increased volume despite being on an inferior offense. He has always been extremely efficient with his touches. 

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Impossible to say that right now-maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. What if his snap share increases by 20% on his new team? Jamaal Williams was still cutting into it heavily in Green Bay. He could replicate his GB numbers with increased volume despite being on an inferior offense. He has always been extremely efficient with his touches. 

I don't think a bigger workload would be a great thing for a RB that has shown not to be all that durable - and It's not like he didn't see volume in GB. How much more of a workload is realistic any place else? It's not like Green Bay is the only team in the NFL that gives carries to backup RBs.

We will just agree to disagree as I see very few landing spots where Jones' value doesn't take a big hit if Green Bay lets him walk. I am sure his perceived value, at the very least, will show the same once it happens.

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:
17 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

 

I don't think a bigger workload would be a great thing for a RB that has shown not to be all that durable

He’s missed 6 games since 2018. That is not crazy at all really, especially when you start comparing it to other top backs. 

 

13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

How much more of a workload is realistic any place else?

He hovered at around a 55-60% snap share when Jamaal was active, so I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that number could increase elsewhere. 

 

14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

We will just agree to disagree

Fair enough. 

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37 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don't think a bigger workload would be a great thing for a RB that has shown not to be all that durable - and It's not like he didn't see volume in GB. How much more of a workload is realistic any place else? It's not like Green Bay is the only team in the NFL that gives carries to backup RBs.

We will just agree to disagree as I see very few landing spots where Jones' value doesn't take a big hit if Green Bay lets him walk. I am sure his perceived value, at the very least, will show the same once it happens.

I think it's safe to say his value will probably take a hit, although part of that is already baked in as there certainly isn't anyone treating him like a guy that's finished as a top 5 RB each of the last two seasons.

Of the rumored destinations I think Miami, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh (surprised I don't see them mentioned more on fantasy forums, they are one of the top mentioned names in beatwriter articles) would be the best spots. A downgrade from GB for sure but not as huge of a ding as I think man feared.  FWIW Gaskin in the 8 games after he took over the starting role in Miami had a 16 game pace of 1640 total yards, 62 catches, 10 TDs).

Seattle would obviously be great too but I agree with most of the others here that it is extremely unlikely they re-sign him.  

Of the rumored destinations I think Jets, Pats, Chargers would all be a big ding to his value.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

Of the rumored destinations I think Miami, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh (surprised I don't see them mentioned more on fantasy forums, 

I don't think Pittsburgh has enough cap space to "waste" on a RB - maybe that's why they are not mentioned.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don't think Pittsburgh has enough cap space to "waste" on a RB - maybe that's why they are not mentioned.

The beat writers that discard Seattle due to cap space issues keep bringing up Pittsburgh as one of the top options for some reason.  Not sure if they have a bunch of space clearing up soon or why they keep getting written about over Seattle.

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

The beat writers that discard Seattle due to cap space issues keep bringing up Pittsburgh as one of the top options for some reason.  Not sure if they have a bunch of space clearing up soon or why they keep getting written about over Seattle.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/ 

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50 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I mean, to be fair, what top running backs don’t miss a game or two every year? It’s a brutal position. He didn’t miss a single game last year. In today’s landscape, that is pretty impressive. Look at this year alone-CMC, Saquon, Chubb, Dalvin, Carson, Kamara, Mixon, and I can keep going. 

Sure. I’m not arguing that he’s injury prone, relative to his position. I’m pivoting away from 26 YO RBs in general - and he’s not an exception for me. I don’t anticipate him being any less susceptible to injury, and I don’t think I’ll be missing out on a league-winning season from him, especially outside of GB. I’m lower than most on Kamara and Cook as well. But I see an extra half season or two from them, based on talent, and a higher PPG during that span.

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5 hours ago, Edgar said:

Jefferson and his 1400 yard rookie season is a slam-dunk first round startup pick. Lamb and his 1000 yard rookie year I can live with in the late first too. What scares me is starting up and grabbing, say, a 27 year old Derrick Henry when the league is excellently balanced in year 1. You could finish anywhere from 1.01-1.12. If you choose aging vets and things go south, you're staring at a rebuild in your league's 2nd season.

To each his own.  I've done this numerous times, but this is my first start up in a decade.  $$$ is on the line.  I plan on being a top tier team.  I'll take a proven stud over youth.  Having 30 roster spots allows you to sprinkle youth at some point.  Sure Jefferson could be the next great WR or he could be the next Braylon Edwards.

 

Henry will be a stud baring an injury for the near future.  No signs of falling off yet.  The trio of Chubb, Henry, and Michael Thomas I've started with looks good to me.

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1 hour ago, Shawnky said:

To each his own.  I've done this numerous times, but this is my first start up in a decade.  $$$ is on the line.  I plan on being a top tier team.  I'll take a proven stud over youth.  Having 30 roster spots allows you to sprinkle youth at some point.  Sure Jefferson could be the next great WR or he could be the next Braylon Edwards.

 

Henry will be a stud baring an injury for the near future.  No signs of falling off yet.  The trio of Chubb, Henry, and Michael Thomas I've started with looks good to me.

I’m shocked you could get all three in a snake draft 14 team startup.

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9 minutes ago, Edgar said:

I’m shocked you could get all three in a snake draft 14 team startup.

It is actually a 12 team.  I had the 7 pick.  Took Chubb then Henry.  Was then offered the 2.9 and his 7th rounder.  Gave up my 3rd and 4th.  Pretty happy with the deal.  Rookie picks for this year are part of the draft.  #1 and #2 went 3.10 and 3.12.  That's just too soon imo with the talent out there.   In my experience, it's pretty easy to maintain youth with savvy trading.  

Edited by Shawnky
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What is Isaiah McKenzie’a value for a draft pick?

I’m sitting on a couple of 3rds this year & McKenzie is a FA. Obviously I don’t know who might be there for me in the 3rd but would I be way overpaying if I consider using one of the picks on McKenzie? 

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Depends on the league size. In FFPC, yes, because everyone cuts down to 14 position players and a third can get you better (before cut down and in the draft). Something with deep roster spots maybe it’s not an overpay.

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7 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What is Isaiah McKenzie’a value for a draft pick?

I’m sitting on a couple of 3rds this year & McKenzie is a FA. Obviously I don’t know who might be there for me in the 3rd but would I be way overpaying if I consider using one of the picks on McKenzie? 

I don't think he's worth a 3rd in general, but especially not in this class. WR is just as deep as last year, QB and TE are deeper. There are going to be guys available in the 3rd who would be 2nd round picks most years.

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I don't think he's worth a 3rd in general, but especially not in this class. WR is just as deep as last year, QB and TE are deeper. There are going to be guys available in the 3rd who would be 2nd round picks most years.

I agree totally with this!

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Yeah, McKenzie is way, way down the list of even Mike Clay's free agent rankings, never mind overall dynasty rankings. Keep your third.

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7 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What is Isaiah McKenzie’a value for a draft pick?

I’m sitting on a couple of 3rds this year & McKenzie is a FA. Obviously I don’t know who might be there for me in the 3rd but would I be way overpaying if I consider using one of the picks on McKenzie? 

Why are you targeting McKenzie? Seems like a waiver wire type player based on his career so far. I don't see him being highly sought in free agency where he'd land a significant role.

Honestly I'd much rather roll the dice on a third round pick and I probably wouldn't even move a fifth for him.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Why are you targeting McKenzie? Seems like a waiver wire type player based on his career so far. I don't see him being highly sought in free agency where he'd land a significant role.

Honestly I'd much rather roll the dice on a third round pick and I probably wouldn't even move a fifth for him.

I agree. I wouldn't.

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37 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Why are you targeting McKenzie? Seems like a waiver wire type player based on his career so far. I don't see him being highly sought in free agency where he'd land a significant role.

Honestly I'd much rather roll the dice on a third round pick and I probably wouldn't even move a fifth for him.

Was just looking over FAs and his name stood out - Buffalo seemed to use him more toward the end of the season & the few times I’d seen their games he looked like a decent player. 

so not really targeting him - just noticed him & figured I’d ask the question of what he’s worth. 

appreciate the replies. 👍🏼

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Was just looking over FAs and his name stood out - Buffalo seemed to use him more toward the end of the season & the few times I’d seen their games he looked like a decent player. 

so not really targeting him - just noticed him & figured I’d ask the question of what he’s worth. 

appreciate the replies. 👍🏼

He has shown flashes. I'm just not sure he ever commands a huge role. WR is just so crazy deep at present than I'm sure there's plenty of leagues where he isn't even rostered.

If you do like him I'd offer a 4th or 5th as most of those picks won't pan out. Personally I'd rather throw the dart, but the odds are likely similar either way.

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47 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He has shown flashes. I'm just not sure he ever commands a huge role. WR is just so crazy deep at present than I'm sure there's plenty of leagues where he isn't even rostered.

If you do like him I'd offer a 4th or 5th as most of those picks won't pan out. Personally I'd rather throw the dart, but the odds are likely similar either way.

I’ve got a couple 5ths, so if he’s there I can pluck him up with one of those as a dart throw. 

He’s listed as a RB in my league, FWIW. Sounds like it’s not worth much. lol

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15 hours ago, Shawnky said:

It is actually a 12 team.  I had the 7 pick.  Took Chubb then Henry.  Was then offered the 2.9 and his 7th rounder.  Gave up my 3rd and 4th.  Pretty happy with the deal.  Rookie picks for this year are part of the draft.  #1 and #2 went 3.10 and 3.12.  That's just too soon imo with the talent out there.   In my experience, it's pretty easy to maintain youth with savvy trading.  

I'm pretty sure we're league-mates. I was actually surprised the rookie picks lasted as long as they did - I was happy to land the 2nd and 3rd overall rookie picks at 3.10 and 4.03. Surrounding picks in order, for reference: CEH > 1.02 > Aiyuk > Waller > Jacobs > Mixon > 1.03 > Murray > Sanders. (The 1.01 went between DJ Moore and Chris Godwin.)

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On 2/11/2021 at 10:02 AM, Joe Bryant said:

Hey Guys,

Dan Hindery said some folks have had trouble finding the Trade Value Chart. 

Can you please be super specific and let us know exactly where you normally see it and now can't see it?

We LOVE that feature and nothing has changed on our end that we aware of. 

We just want to know exactly what you mean. Thanks. 

Joe,

This may have been in reference to my post. Someone mentioned how they really liked Hindery's chart, and I had just never used it. I made a comment about not seeing it. I found it pretty quickly once I began looking. So maybe that's what this was in reference to.

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5 minutes ago, kutta said:

Joe,

This may have been in reference to my post. Someone mentioned how they really liked Hindery's chart, and I had just never used it. I made a comment about not seeing it. I found it pretty quickly once I began looking. So maybe that's what this was in reference to.

Thanks Buddy. That might explain. We'll keep digging as Dan's article is super popular and I want to make sure everyone can get it. 

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2 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

What pick is Dak worth - Less than Trevor at 1.8ish but ahead of Zach Wilson at 2.1ish?

I have Dak ahead of Trevor. the suddenly pass-happy Cowboys offense where Dak was putting up historic numbers until the knee injury actually made me want to have the dude on a team for the 1st time. 

Assuming Prescott is fully recovered, of course, he’s probably worth the 1.06-1.07 pick.

my opinion.  

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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The Waller owner is back sending me the same offer as before minus asking for my 3.09 lol. (Old offer that I declined was his Waller, 2021 1.08 & 2021 3.03 for my Keenan Allen, Golladay, Engram & 3.09) He just sent the same offer w/o the 3.09 in it lol

 

I think I'd rather have Allen v Waller even though I could use a TE (This is PPR)

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