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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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5 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

The Waller owner is back sending me the same offer as before minus asking for my 3.09 lol. (Old offer that I declined was his Waller, 2021 1.08 & 2021 3.03 for my Keenan Allen, Golladay, Engram & 3.09) He just sent the same offer w/o the 3.09 in it lol

 

I think I'd rather have Allen v Waller even though I could use a TE (This is PPR)

To me the sticking point is giving up Allen and Golladay.  But I am higher on Golladay than most.  

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

Need some help. What is Corey Davis's value? Early second or late second? I'll hang up and listen. If it's less, let me know.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Need some help. What is Corey Davis's value? Early second or late second? I'll hang up and listen. If it's less, let me know.

Mid to late 3rd for me. I'm not giving up a 2nd round pick in this deep draft for him. 

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Just now, ffmail4me said:

Mid to late 3rd for me. I'm not giving up a 2nd round pick in this deep draft for him. 

Wow. That seems low according to most calcs. Is this just message board loving the picks as always, or an honest assessment of his ability? I just turned down 2.11, future 2nd, and Jeff Wilson for Bryan Edwards and Davis. Did I muck this up by asking for 2.02, future 2nd, and Wilson?

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Wow. That seems low according to most calcs. Is this just message board loving the picks as always, or an honest assessment of his ability? I just turned down 2.11, future 2nd, and Jeff Wilson for Bryan Edwards and Davis. Did I muck this up by asking for 2.02, future 2nd, and Wilson?

I know we all have our own guys we like and dislike, but I would have smash accepted 2.11, Jeff Wilson (who I think has HUGE upside) and future 2nd for Edwards and Davis. 

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On 2/12/2021 at 10:21 AM, Dr. Octopus said:
On 2/12/2021 at 2:23 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What is Isaiah McKenzie’a value for a draft pick?

I’m sitting on a couple of 3rds this year & McKenzie is a FA. Obviously I don’t know who might be there for me in the 3rd but would I be way overpaying if I consider using one of the picks on McKenzie? 

Why are you targeting McKenzie? Seems like a waiver wire type player based on his career so far. I don't see him being highly sought in free agency where he'd land a significant role.

Honestly I'd much rather roll the dice on a third round pick and I probably wouldn't even move a fifth for him.

I think I’d rather have Bob and/or Doug McKenzie.

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Need some help. What is Corey Davis's value? Early second or late second? I'll hang up and listen. If it's less, let me know.

He is polarizing and impossible for me to answer adequately. I have had no luck moving him but yeah I think something like a 2nd. Nobody wants to pay for him, though, and he is either a worthwhile depth piece or he is a roster clogger. Neither of those rhyme with championship difference maker. 

I don't think you mucked up anything but I'm not into Wilson and would do it for the 2nds. But mostly because 2.02 is the big piece here. That is about what I would want for Davis but doubt I will get it. 

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5 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I know we all have our own guys we like and dislike, but I would have smash accepted 2.11, Jeff Wilson (who I think has HUGE upside) and future 2nd for Edwards and Davis. 

####. Thanks for your honest opinion. Like barack points out, Corey is divisive. All those years of waiting, though, and he might have finally arrived in terms of his game. Well, I can hope he accepts or say, "you know, I'll take that deal..." Hwarf. Unlikely to work. 

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3 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

He is polarizing and impossible for me to answer adequately. I have had no luck moving him but yeah I think something like a 2nd. Nobody wants to pay for him, though, and he is either a worthwhile depth piece or he is a roster clogger. Neither of those rhyme with championship difference maker. 

I don't think you mucked up anything but I'm not into Wilson and would do it for the 2nds. But mostly because 2.02 is the big piece here. That is about what I would want for Davis but doubt I will get it. 

Oh 2.02 would have been accepted instantly. He offered 2.11 and future 2 and Wilson. Not sure if I was clear in my last post.

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Its hard to place a value on Corey Davis in general but also because we dont know who he will be playing for this season as he is a free agent.

If he gets one of the better deals for free agent WR this year, and there are several other very good ones, that will tell us something about how the NFL values Davis compared to the other WR. If he is signed to a team with no clear WR one it will be an upgrade. If he goes to a team that throws the ball more than the Titans its an upgrade. I think most scenarios there would be an upgrade over the opportunity he has had with the Titans so he is a hold I think until we see where he goes.

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Just now, rockaction said:

Oh 2.02 would have been accepted instantly. He offered 2.11 and future 2 and Wilson. Not sure if I was clear in my last post.

I probably misread so in his offer you would be giving Davis and Edwards and getting the two 2nds and Wilson? If so I think it is pretty close. If you're into Wilson it may be a slam dunk. The 2.02 is worth inquiring about though.

I have bought a couple shares of Edwards lately and I got him for a future 3rd in one and a 4th in the other. Due to FFPC cutdown restraints these kinds of cut candidate players (not Davis) can be had cheap. Reason I point that out is that this potential deal, even with just the 2.11, probably represents a better than market return for Edwards, if just at cost for Davis. Wilson for free?

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Its hard to place a value on Corey Davis in general but also because we dont know who he will be playing for this season as he is a free agent.

If he gets one of the better deals for free agent WR this year, and there are several other very good ones, that will tell us something about how the NFL values Davis compared to the other WR. If he is signed to a team with no clear WR one it will be an upgrade. If he goes to a team that throws the ball more than the Titans its an upgrade. I think most scenarios there would be an upgrade over the opportunity he has had with the Titans so he is a hold I think until we see where he goes.

Yes thank you this is the other piece. I am most likely holding him for these reasons but if I can sell him at market cost right now I probably do it. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

Yes thank you this is the other piece. I am most likely holding him for these reasons but if I can sell him at market cost right now I probably do it. 

Biabreakable's reply was exactly what I said to the person who offered the deal. And he and I (the person) have been going back and forth a while on the issue. I hope the person responds soon (he tends not to, and I got this offer out of the blue after having negotiations fall apart before, though there was no ill will, just no response) so I can re-offer or re-think my position on this. My gut tells me to get what I can for Edwards but is reluctant to throw Davis in. Anyway, thanks guys, for the responses. Probably should have hit accept now that I think about it. Too bad I didn't check here first.

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32 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Need some help. What is Corey Davis's value? Early second or late second? I'll hang up and listen. If it's less, let me know.

Hindery has him at 2.01 which seems high. I would consider a late 2nd.

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3 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Hindery has him at 2.01 which seems high. I would consider a late 2nd.

See, I've got him in line on two different trade calcs with a high second. I'm rethinking my position, though. I think I could come up with something creative that satisfies both parties.

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14 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Maybe the other guy sees most scenarios for Davis as an upgrade to his value and that is why he wants to buy him now?

There are several ifs and unknowns here but I do lean towards him being an ascending asset.

Yeah, me too. But I probably should have taken the deal. Would have given me four seconds, all nice dart throws. And one next year. Oh well, what's done is done maybe he'll accept. (I doubt it.)

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I was just looking at Corey Davis numbers. 10.7 yards per target is very good and 70% catch rate as a part of that also very good.

While Ryan Tannehill is playing his best football and its a night and day split between Corey Davis performance with RT compared to MM (58% catch rate with MM in 2018) Ryan Tannehill was only 22nd in completion percentage last year on low volume which should help these types of numbers. So reasonable enough to me to expect that Davis might have similar QB talent to work with but more targets with his new team.

Of course the possibility also exists that Corey Davis is who he is and even if he gets a big money deal with a pass happy offense he still puts up similar numbers or worse. That is basically what happened with Sammy Watkins. So you never know.

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6 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Of course the possibility also exists that Corey Davis is who he is and even if he gets a big money deal with a pass happy offense he still puts up similar numbers

I'd take that. He was a middle of the pack WR3 overall while missing two full games due to COVID. And pulling a 0.00 in Wk 15. Oof.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I'd take that. He was a middle of the pack WR3 overall while missing two full games due to COVID. And pulling a 0.00 in Wk 15. Oof.

Corey Davis is a good WR. reportedly a very good blocker as well according to Bri which doesn't help us in fantasy but is valued by NFL teams.

I think Sammy Watkins issues may be injury related. I only make that comparison because of their similar draft position and thus very high expectations for them.

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

 

I don't think you mucked up anything but I'm not into Wilson 

Hey, just curious about your stance on Wilson. If you look at his numbers, he averaged 5 yards a carry, and had 8 total TDs, and did this in only 6 games with starter/meaningful burn. (yes he played in 10 games but early on had 3 games where he had 2, 3, and 4 carries) He also catches the ball well. I just think knowing Shanny's history, whether you think Mostert is the starter nor not, he has real value. (and I do like Mostert too for the record) 

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19 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Hey, just curious about your stance on Wilson. If you look at his numbers, he averaged 5 yards a carry, and had 8 total TDs, and did this in only 6 games with starter/meaningful burn. (yes he played in 10 games but early on had 3 games where he had 2, 3, and 4 carries) He also catches the ball well. I just think knowing Shanny's history, whether you think Mostert is the starter nor not, he has real value. (and I do like Mostert too for the record) 

I think Mostert is better and will be the prime guy while healthy.  I guess it comes down to if you think Mostert stays healthy and/or if SF brings in any new blood for competition.

 

Wilson is probably one of those guys that has more value to the Mostert owner than as a standalone guy.

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3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

The 49er back to have is always last year's guy. I'd never want to chase my tail with that backfield - it might be more fruitless than the Patriots'.

It was actually fairly consistent this year.  If Mostert was healthy he was great.  If he wasn't then Wilson was great.  There really wasn't much guess work other that the unfortunate in game injuries that occurred but that could happen in any backfield.  

 

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

It was actually fairly consistent this year.  If Mostert was healthy he was great.  If he wasn't then Wilson was great.  There really wasn't much guess work other that the unfortunate in game injuries that occurred but that could happen in any backfield.  

And then there were the Ganges McKinnon was great. The point is you have to own all of them to make sure you have the next man up. No thanks.

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

And then there were the Ganges McKinnon was great. The point is you have to own all of them to make sure you have the next man up. No thanks.

Actually this year it was clear as injuries is what derailed all the components.  Mostert was good week 1& 2 and got injured.  McKinnon was good 3 & 4 and got injured.  Then Mostert was back and was good 5 & 6 and reinjured.  Wilson was good week 7 and got injured.  Mostert & Wilson were out until week 12 when Mostert was good for 12-15 and got reinjured.  Wilson then was good 15-17.  It was very clear for this year. 

 

Totally different than Patriots where the practice squad guy is active one week and goes for 20 touches.  We can agree to disagree but the way I see it it was a very fruitful backfield because you saw what was coming.  

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37 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Hey, just curious about your stance on Wilson. If you look at his numbers, he averaged 5 yards a carry, and had 8 total TDs, and did this in only 6 games with starter/meaningful burn. (yes he played in 10 games but early on had 3 games where he had 2, 3, and 4 carries) He also catches the ball well. I just think knowing Shanny's history, whether you think Mostert is the starter nor not, he has real value. (and I do like Mostert too for the record) 

I like him as an NFL running back and if he becomes the man in SF then yes please sign me up. I just don't see them going in that direction. I think the back to own is going to be Mostert or a top rookie if they draft one. Or if they make a FA splash if that is even possible. I would be drafting a top back if I were the Niners. 

More fundamentally though I have no issue whatsoever acquiring RBs like Wilson on the cheap and if he ended up as a throw in on one of my deals I would happily take him if I had roster space. Or if I thought it was worth including simply to get a bigger deal done. 

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7 minutes ago, Gally said:

Actually this year it was clear as injuries is what derailed all the components.  Mostert was good week 1& 2 and got injured.  McKinnon was good 3 & 4 and got injured.  Then Mostert was back and was good 5 & 6 and reinjured.  Wilson was good week 7 and got injured.  Mostert & Wilson were out until week 12 when Mostert was good for 12-15 and got reinjured.  Wilson then was good 15-17.  It was very clear for this year. 

 

Totally different than Patriots where the practice squad guy is active one week and goes for 20 touches.  We can agree to disagree but the way I see it it was a very fruitful backfield because you saw what was coming.  

That's what you call "clear"? Maybe my sarcasm meter is broken...

I'll amend what I said to "the two backfields were equally muddy but for different reasons".

But, once again, the point is that it's the pursuit of those points that's almost fruitless because of randomness.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That's what you call "clear"? Maybe my sarcasm meter is broken...

I'll amend what I said to "the two backfields were equally muddy but for different reasons".

But, once again, the point is that it's the pursuit of those points that's almost fruitless because of randomness.

But it was not randomness.  It was easily known before each game due to injuries and players not being available.  Mostert is lead back when healthy and gets the bulk of the touches and puts up top 15 RB numbers.  Wilson was the #2 when healthy and got the bulk of touches when Mostert was out.  McKinnon got a chance at #2 but got injured and Wilson took over.  

 

It was very clear.  This was not the practice squad guy out of nowhere getting 20 carries out of the blue for a complete random situation.  SF was not a muddy backfield in 2019.  You knew who the guy was going to be going into the game.  That is not random.  

 

Just because multiple RB's had useful games across the season does not mean the backfield was random.  In this case the system is great for RB's and when you know (which you did because of injuries) who the guy is going into the game it provided you great value.  

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Well McKinnon and Coleman are expected to be gone, so I think this backfield becomes more of a "Traditional" backfield with a starter and a valuable backup,  no different than a lot of teams. Except you can get Mostert and Wilson a LOT cheaper than most duos. But the numbers both put up are VERY impressive. And I'd imagine they will have even MORE room to run when defenses have to scheme for Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk this year. If they improve their QB play, I think they are legit contenders. 

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8 minutes ago, Gally said:

But it was not randomness.  It was easily known before each game due to injuries and players not being available.  Mostert is lead back when healthy and gets the bulk of the touches and puts up top 15 RB numbers.  Wilson was the #2 when healthy and got the bulk of touches when Mostert was out.  McKinnon got a chance at #2 but got injured and Wilson took over.  

 

It was very clear.  This was not the practice squad guy out of nowhere getting 20 carries out of the blue for a complete random situation.  SF was not a muddy backfield in 2019.  You knew who the guy was going to be going into the game.  That is not random.  

 

Just because multiple RB's had useful games across the season does not mean the backfield was random.  In this case the system is great for RB's and when you know (which you did because of injuries) who the guy is going into the game it provided you great value.  

That's exactly what it means. :confused:

Again...in order to get the benefit you have to tie up three roster spots.

Let's just drop it. We have different definitions and we're not going to convince each other. And everyone else knows our points too.

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8 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That's exactly what it means. :confused:

Again...in order to get the benefit you have to tie up three roster spots.

Let's just drop it. We have different definitions and we're not going to convince each other. And everyone else knows our points too.

You could say the same thing about every backfield.  If you have Cook and he gets hurt you need Mattison and if he got hurt you would need Boone.  SF in 2020 was no different than any other team with injury problems.  If Mostert stayed healthy we wouldn't even have this discussion because it would have been one guy getting the bulk of the work. 

 

Injury forcing multiple players to carry the load is not randomness.  Whack a mole with three healthy backs and not knowing which one gets the bulk of workload any given week is randomness.  That was not SF's situation in 2020

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53 minutes ago, Gally said:

Injury forcing multiple players to carry the load is not randomness.  Whack a mole with three healthy backs and not knowing which one gets the bulk of workload any given week is randomness.  That was not SF's situation in 2020

I'm not sure we had a good enough sample of three healthy backs to know how they planned to use them in 2020. 2021 seems like a mystery to me.

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57 minutes ago, Mark Football said:

I'm not sure we had a good enough sample of three healthy backs to know how they planned to use them in 2020. 2021 seems like a mystery to me.

Quite possibly but it appeared that Mostert was going to be the feature back going into the season and he was until he got hurt.  He was performing well so IMO there wasn't reason to think that wouldn't have continued.  Add in that they went right back to him as the feature guy when he was healthy enough to play seems to strengthen my argument.  

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1 hour ago, Mark Football said:

I'm not sure we had a good enough sample of three healthy backs to know how they planned to use them in 2020. 2021 seems like a mystery to me.

Between Shanny being Shanny and the fact both Mostert and Wilson will be UFA's after 2021 I wouldn't be surprised one bit if he brings in another quality RB either thru the draft or FA.

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24 minutes ago, Gally said:

Quite possibly but it appeared that Mostert was going to be the feature back going into the season and he was until he got hurt.  He was performing well so IMO there wasn't reason to think that wouldn't have continued.  Add in that they went right back to him as the feature guy when he was healthy enough to play seems to strengthen my argument.  

As I said, small sample size, but if it's good enough for you, I say go for it! 

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6 hours ago, rockaction said:

Need some help. What is Corey Davis's value? Early second or late second? I'll hang up and listen. If it's less, let me know.

I generally avoid buying WR's going to new teams...but given the low volume of the Titans passing offense going elsewhere would likely be a net positive...and it isn't how he's priced right now.

He's probably a good buy right now, but I can't get excited enough about his upside to justify a round 2 pick in this draft to get him. If I'm using a #2 to upgrade my offense I want more upside than Davis.

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Just to agree with Gally. SF RBs are top end performers. Whichever guy is playing - and they rely primarily on one at a time - will be a quality producer. The  other guys get very little and so are generally waiver-available, but the team understands the modern run game. I think its not favoring a committee that makes the guy playing valuable. Who can be sure if that lasts.

This year is seemed that the many injuries took guys out and you knew who was going to perform in the next game. I didn't have Mostert (wish I did), but I picked up Wilson in Week 12 desperation and had to use him in the league close out and playoffs. He put up 396 yards and 6 TDs over the final 4 games to be the difference-maker in my 16 teamer. I'll gladly make room to hold him pending another Mostert injury.

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So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

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19 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

I'm coming around to trading a later first for Jeudy. I have a similar opportunity in a non-ppr Zealots league. I'm starting to like Jeudy more than the other guys I could get at the 10 or 12 spot. 

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23 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

If Lock is there I have zero confidence in the Denver passing game, unless there is dramatic improvement he is not a legit starting level QB...even if he is it still could be a little dicey because you have Jeudy, Sutton, Hamler and Fant (as well as Patrick if he comes back and Albert O who is a little intriguing)...if Watson goes there this offense could obviously take off but other than him I'm not sure who they could put at QB so this offense is in a position to support that many potential weapons.

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23 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

I don't disagree that they could be due for bigger 2021's, but that edge easily goes to Sutton. Jeudy isn't that good, and he needs a lot of development to be a solid #2. That's all he'll ever be in my eyes for the time being. For 1.10 that's the equivalent to Terrace Marshall for me. Terrace is a better prospect so I'd rather put my draft picks to use for him. And getting Terrace would be worst case scenario, someone else could slip and improve who I get. 

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39 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

Like I said in the trade thread I like it for you. I have pick 10 in a league and I'd give that up for him but I'd have to wait until after I can expand rosters but I'm pretty sure I'd take him over any WR I can pick at 10.

What I liked about Juedy coming in he put in full display. Can run routes, gets open with ease. Just needs to bulk up a little and hang onto the ball but he just put up over 800 yards as a rookie with Lock throwing to him.

I don't know if he and Sutton will have bounce back years because right now Lock is still the QB and maybe they strike out on upgrading over him for end up with a rookie QB not quite ready. But dynasty is a long game and he'll eventually have a better QB.

 

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49 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

Right now I would not have Jeudy ranked higher than 7th among rookie WR's and depending on what happens draft day I might convince myself to drop him further. I'm not going to dismiss sliding him above one of the top 6 WR's (and Pitts), but such a decision would be made based on information I'm not yet aware of.

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I think its all but certain Lock is NOT their starting QB from what I've read. Statistically he was the worst rated QB last year. And I can't find the article, but there was a metric about accuracy or placement of "catchable" balls and the number was just god awful. I don't think anyone has seen what Jeudy's ceiling (or even floor) will be in the NFL. Not based on how bad Lock was last year...

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6 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

I think I like it.  I figure 1.10 this year is something like the ~5th best receiver in this class.  Personally I'd rather have Jeudy if I wasn't getting a shot at Chase/Smith/Waddle.

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6 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

So just bought Jeudy for basically the 1.10 rookie pick. I know he didn't blow us away last year but seems like Lock had a LOT to do with that. With a QB upgrade anyone thinking he and Sutton could be primed for big bounce back years? 

I don't think that is a bad deal for you. I don't know that I would do it (Unless I was terrible @ WR), but I don't hate it

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