Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Hot Sauce Guy 9,209]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Yes, you know the old saying, "it's better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.".  Twenty-nine may be a year too late.

The Bill Walsh school of football. Missed by a year on Montana, but it was the right move. 

[menobrown 4,240]

24 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Yes, you know the old saying, "it's better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.".  Twenty-nine may be a year too late.

If you are waiting until a RB is 29 to move him you are more then a year to late.

[JohnnyU 4,344]

1 minute ago, menobrown said:

If you are waiting until a RB is 29 to move him you are more then a year to late.

I agree......most of the time.  The way things are looking lately, 26 is the new 30.

[Blick 1,248]

2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

If you are waiting until a RB is 29 to move him you are more then a year to late.

I’ve sent out feelers to move Henry. Based on responses, I’ll probably just keep him and hope to get a few more years from him.  Nothing close to where I value him. 

[menobrown 4,240]

15 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I agree......most of the time.  The way things are looking lately, 26 is the new 30.

Someone else mentioned something like this a few weeks but I'm personally not much evidence of this with RB's.

I  just went on a search and used this site's feature to sort out RB's aged 29 years or older who had 200 fantasy points, and I wish I had a better way to search then standard but all I got. This was from last 5.

3 RB's aged 29 or older scored 200 non-PPR points in last 5 years and they all did it once and not the names you'd think. Mark Ingram and Blount at 30, McCoy at 29. I don't play non-PPR, is 200 to hefty of a goal? I did not think so since we are talking upper echelon guys but I was not trying to use some arbitrary number to prove a point or some type of cut off to eliminate players.

The previous 5 years were actually better which does not suggest, to me anyway, that RB's are actually improving with age but worse because 4 RB's in the previous  years, 2011-2015 went over 200 points.Those 4 were Peterson at 30 with Michael Turner, Matt Forte and Justin Forte at 29.

Again I'm seeing no signs of RB's aging better and most even less signs of a RB carrying a big load early in their careers still being viable.

And I just started digging further and frankly makes me want to say if you are holding a RB past 26 you need to move. Past 5 seasons only 6  RB's older then 26 scored 200 or more non-PPR fantasy points, two did it twice.

As the 2017 draft class ages they figure to add to this a little but it's not real encouraging looking to me holding on to these RB's past 25. Get a few years, recycle is what I try and do.

[barackdhouse 2,442]

What is the value of moving a RB one year too late? 
         Perhaps something like going from a Hindery value of 25-30 down to something like 8-14? So losing between 11-22, call it a future 1st. This is arbitrary and just a thought experiment so bear with me. It could be a bigger loss than that.

What is the value of moving a RB one year too early?
         Perhaps something like going from 30 to 25? Gaining about 5? Or maybe close to a future 2nd?

What is the difference in magnitude between the two answers? In an extremely rough way, maybe the difference between losing a 1st rounder and gaining a 2nd rounder. 

Now.

Are we trying to gain value or win championships? Serious question because neither scenario above is ideal. Ideal is to sell at the perfect time. Not too early or too late. I think most people would agree we're never likely to hit that mark. But here is the thing. If you're gonna say there is a world in which you sold a player too early, by definition that suggests they held value after you sold them. Why would that be? Purely due to the market perception? Or is it based on on field performance that might actually help your team win? I think I might rather ride them one more time and take that paper loss. In some situations. 

A reminder that we're talking about minimizing losses, not maximizing profits. I'm just not sure that holding a stud past their prime is actually the better play (unless you get a square deal). Selling too early implies that it's hurting my chances to win boxscores in the present, whereas selling too late implies my roster won't look as sexy on paper later, and also assumes I don't do anything further about it. 

I'm contrarian like a mutha.

 

Edited February 21 by barackdhouse

[barackdhouse 2,442]

Actually I think that holds more for WRs because the truth is I keep my RBs as young as possible. I'm just questioning the basic wisdom of the too early vs too late thing. IMO age absolutely matters for RBs.

[MAC_32 12,801]

Generally, sustainability is enhanced if you trade too early. If you don't then you have a marginally better team right now with increased risk later.

I don't think there is anything wrong with either approach and many others in between. The optimal one just needs applied to one's own strengths and weaknesses given the format in question. 

[menobrown 4,240]

10 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Generally, sustainability is enhanced if you trade too early. If you don't then you have a marginally better team right now with increased risk later.

Well said, and makes me think of a specific team of mine were I sucked all I could out of Bell and Gurley and cashed out in the nick of time. These kind of moves have helped my team not crash, not need to undergo a rebuild to taking a step back for a year or two.

Also on WR's they age absolutely better and without looking this up I'd venture to guess hit their prime in that 26-28 window. But even saying that in the last 2 seasons I have paid for AB, Julio and Michael Thomas(2) and I would rate every single one of those trades as a loss in hindsight. I'd list the success story I had trading for an older player but I don't have one.

[MAC_32 12,801]

10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Well said, and makes me think of a specific team of mine were I sucked all I could out of Bell and Gurley and cashed out in the nick of time. These kind of moves have helped my team not crash, not need to undergo a rebuild to taking a step back for a year or two.

Also on WR's they age absolutely better and without looking this up I'd venture to guess hit their prime in that 26-28 window. But even saying that in the last 2 seasons I have paid for AB, Julio and Michael Thomas(2) and I would rate every single one of those trades as a loss in hindsight. I'd list the success story I had trading for an older player but I don't have one.

I had the depth in one league to bail on Devonta Freeman before the bottom fell out. I didn't in my other and went down with the ship. I think both decisions were the correct one even with hind sight. My season would have been sunk had I moved Freeman in the latter. I still fell short, but I had a contender with him. Without, not so much. 

[Biabreakable 5,179]

2 hours ago, menobrown said:

Someone else mentioned something like this a few weeks but I'm personally not much evidence of this with RB's.

I  just went on a search and used this site's feature to sort out RB's aged 29 years or older who had 200 fantasy points, and I wish I had a better way to search then standard but all I got. This was from last 5.

3 RB's aged 29 or older scored 200 non-PPR points in last 5 years and they all did it once and not the names you'd think. Mark Ingram and Blount at 30, McCoy at 29. I don't play non-PPR, is 200 to hefty of a goal? I did not think so since we are talking upper echelon guys but I was not trying to use some arbitrary number to prove a point or some type of cut off to eliminate players.

The previous 5 years were actually better which does not suggest, to me anyway, that RB's are actually improving with age but worse because 4 RB's in the previous  years, 2011-2015 went over 200 points.Those 4 were Peterson at 30 with Michael Turner, Matt Forte and Justin Forte at 29.

Again I'm seeing no signs of RB's aging better and most even less signs of a RB carrying a big load early in their careers still being viable.

And I just started digging further and frankly makes me want to say if you are holding a RB past 26 you need to move. Past 5 seasons only 6  RB's older then 26 scored 200 or more non-PPR fantasy points, two did it twice.

As the 2017 draft class ages they figure to add to this a little but it's not real encouraging looking to me holding on to these RB's past 25. Get a few years, recycle is what I try and do.

When we are talking about averages any production curve you look at will show that RB performance has a peak at 25 years old. Many RB perform well from age 26-28 years old but those years are not quite as much on average as the age 25 season. Some of the RB have good seasons at an older age as well. Most of those players were good performers earlier in their careers, and if you follow their careers, they likely performed better at a younger age than they did at age 29 or more.

From the study I did I learned that a RB tends to be their most productive in their 1st six seasons in the league. There is a significant drop off in performance on average after 6 seasons. The younger the player was entering the league, the better their chances are of having good seasons beyond 6. 

Priest Holmes is a total anomaly to this curve being one of the few RB to have good performances later on in the curve and maybe one of the best examples I can think of for the wear and tear argument, but hard to make a case from a anomaly.

[barackdhouse 2,442]

3 hours ago, menobrown said:

I'd list the success story I had trading for an older player but I don't have one.

Yeah no kidding. Fitzgerald is a guy that I got stuck with and was pleased about it. Sort of. I flipped Mixon for Ingram and two future 1st two years ago and that worked out great. But I didn't *buy* an older player so much as included him in a bigger deal and it worked out. The problem with holding onto a guy that *might* still be productive is that you have to start them for it to matter. If you don't they're just burning a spot. And if you do start them then you run the risk that their drop-off is actualized in your boxscore. I mean even though I laid out a tenuous counter argument I do generally agree with the doing it earlier than later principle. I was mostly playing off the literal interpretation of the words "too late/early". I got championship winning seasons out of David Johnson and Gronkowski last year, after paying too much for both. It's not something I try to do too much of.

 

[joey 1,536]

I have the 1.10 in a 12 team FFPC league (pep, TE Premium) where I need an RB pretty badly. I can take best available RB at that pick (unless a clear better player drops to me) but also thinking of trading for a veteran RB since I’m in win-now mode with Zeke as my best RB and Kelce at TE. Looking at Hindery's February trade value chart, the 1.10 is worth 13, and the RBs in that trade value range are:

 

A.J. Dillon 18

Kareem Hunt 16

Chris Carson 13

Myles Gaskin 12

Ronald Jones II 11

Kenyan Drake 10

Melvin Gordon III 10

I already own Drake (for better or worse), doubt I’d get Dillon at the higher end of the value chart, and everything in between looks like meh. If Carson stays with Seattle I might like him but he’s been playing fewer and fewer games each year (but I love him when he does play). 
 

any diamonds in the rough that I’m missing in that group? 
I think my best bet is probably trading the 1.10 pick plus a young WR like Shenault or Pittman to move up in the 1st.  
 

thoughts?

 

[BigAl21 163]

3 hours ago, joey said:

I have the 1.10 in a 12 team FFPC league (pep, TE Premium) where I need an RB pretty badly. I can take best available RB at that pick (unless a clear better player drops to me) but also thinking of trading for a veteran RB since I’m in win-now mode with Zeke as my best RB and Kelce at TE. Looking at Hindery's February trade value chart, the 1.10 is worth 13, and the RBs in that trade value range are:

 

A.J. Dillon 18

Kareem Hunt 16

Chris Carson 13

Myles Gaskin 12

Ronald Jones II 11

Kenyan Drake 10

Melvin Gordon III 10

I already own Drake (for better or worse), doubt I’d get Dillon at the higher end of the value chart, and everything in between looks like meh. If Carson stays with Seattle I might like him but he’s been playing fewer and fewer games each year (but I love him when he does play). 
 

any diamonds in the rough that I’m missing in that group? 
I think my best bet is probably trading the 1.10 pick plus a young WR like Shenault or Pittman to move up in the 1st.  
 

thoughts?

 

I think RoJo IF you can get a future 2nd throw into the deal. I own him in one spot and tried to move him for 1.12 but was shot down. Therefore, you might want to get some icy on top for the 1.10. Since then I’ve come around on him and if Fournette doesn’t resign I think he’s in store for a really solid year.

[menobrown 4,240]

7 hours ago, joey said:

I think my best bet is probably trading the 1.10 pick plus a young WR like Shenault or Pittman to move up in the 1st.  
 

 

 

This is probably the best avenue to get a RB you can count on.

The problem with most of those RB's you listed in that range is most are a gamble right now were you just hope FA and the draft works out well for them. Hunt is only one that has a defined role and you are probably looking for more.

I do like the ROJO suggestion that Big Al threw out and he'd the one from the group I'd want but while I think Fournette will walk and I do think ROJO is likely to be the main two down back we know Tampa is a big FA on the cheap destination. Solid guess a Fournette like player is picked up by Tampa, plus Vaughn might emerge.

I can't recall Gordons DWI situation, so maybe he misses 2-3 games. He does kind of a fit that one year vet rental but with all respect to Hindery's chart I'd not be paying 1.10 for him either.

If you got lower cost I'd look at  Mostert. I was highly anti-Mostert last year on these boards but that was relative to his cost. I think he's cost right now and I believe SF has only drafted one RB since Kyle arrived.

Now if you are moving up or trading for a RB that cost more then 1.10 my top buy low RB,  actually make that top buy low player, and this won't be a popular opinion, is CEH.

We know how these FFPC rookie drafts go, hard to get a RB you feel good about helping you in 2021 at 1.10.  You can hope you get one but hope is not a plan.

Alternatively try not to stress on need if you don't get a deal you like and in that case I would recommend BPA or better yet if you don't really like someone is try to move that 1.10 for a 2022#1 but not to draft. I wrote this somewhere else but a league of mine last year someone got ahold of a bunch of 2021#1's in-season and then started picking up Taylor and Dobbins on the cheap after slow starts by them and their teams, paying way less then the draft capital used to obtain them.  Just remember you got time to work this out, don't burn the asset on something that makes you feel better in the spring.

Edited February 22 by menobrown

[Zyphros 2,029]

7 hours ago, joey said:

I have the 1.10 in a 12 team FFPC league (pep, TE Premium) where I need an RB pretty badly. I can take best available RB at that pick (unless a clear better player drops to me) but also thinking of trading for a veteran RB since I’m in win-now mode with Zeke as my best RB and Kelce at TE. Looking at Hindery's February trade value chart, the 1.10 is worth 13, and the RBs in that trade value range are:

 

A.J. Dillon 18

Kareem Hunt 16

Chris Carson 13

Myles Gaskin 12

Ronald Jones II 11

Kenyan Drake 10

Melvin Gordon III 10

I already own Drake (for better or worse), doubt I’d get Dillon at the higher end of the value chart, and everything in between looks like meh. If Carson stays with Seattle I might like him but he’s been playing fewer and fewer games each year (but I love him when he does play). 
 

any diamonds in the rough that I’m missing in that group? 
I think my best bet is probably trading the 1.10 pick plus a young WR like Shenault or Pittman to move up in the 1st.  
 

thoughts?

 

Ekeler is my target RB for my late 1sts if the team isn't competitive. The problem right now is all teams think they can turn it around before season starts so they might not sell for that late 1st. He's worth more than those guys you listed for sure, but in the right situation I can see him traded for that. 

As for that value specifically, I'd target someone lower and a trade down instead of straight up for the 1.10. Vaughn, Harris, Ballage, Cohen and an early 2nd maybe? 

I think you're better off using that piece to trade up though, instead of down or straight up. 

[barackdhouse 2,442]

8 hours ago, joey said:

I have the 1.10 in a 12 team FFPC league (pep, TE Premium) where I need an RB pretty badly. I can take best available RB at that pick (unless a clear better player drops to me) but also thinking of trading for a veteran RB since I’m in win-now mode with Zeke as my best RB and Kelce at TE. Looking at Hindery's February trade value chart, the 1.10 is worth 13, and the RBs in that trade value range are:

 

A.J. Dillon 18

Kareem Hunt 16

Chris Carson 13

Myles Gaskin 12

Ronald Jones II 11

Kenyan Drake 10

Melvin Gordon III 10

I already own Drake (for better or worse), doubt I’d get Dillon at the higher end of the value chart, and everything in between looks like meh. If Carson stays with Seattle I might like him but he’s been playing fewer and fewer games each year (but I love him when he does play). 
 

any diamonds in the rough that I’m missing in that group? 
I think my best bet is probably trading the 1.10 pick plus a young WR like Shenault or Pittman to move up in the 1st.  
 

thoughts?

 

I don't think a single name on that list should be valued that high except maybe Hunt, who I wouldn't pay that for. Yeah I would either take a RB at 1.10 or move up as you say. 

[Gally 5,151]

22 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

What is the value of moving a RB one year too late? 
         Perhaps something like going from a Hindery value of 25-30 down to something like 8-14? So losing between 11-22, call it a future 1st. This is arbitrary and just a thought experiment so bear with me. It could be a bigger loss than that.

What is the value of moving a RB one year too early?
         Perhaps something like going from 30 to 25? Gaining about 5? Or maybe close to a future 2nd?

What is the difference in magnitude between the two answers? In an extremely rough way, maybe the difference between losing a 1st rounder and gaining a 2nd rounder. 

Now.

Are we trying to gain value or win championships? Serious question because neither scenario above is ideal. Ideal is to sell at the perfect time. Not too early or too late. I think most people would agree we're never likely to hit that mark. But here is the thing. If you're gonna say there is a world in which you sold a player too early, by definition that suggests they held value after you sold them. Why would that be? Purely due to the market perception? Or is it based on on field performance that might actually help your team win? I think I might rather ride them one more time and take that paper loss. In some situations. 

A reminder that we're talking about minimizing losses, not maximizing profits. I'm just not sure that holding a stud past their prime is actually the better play (unless you get a square deal). Selling too early implies that it's hurting my chances to win boxscores in the present, whereas selling too late implies my roster won't look as sexy on paper later, and also assumes I don't do anything further about it. 

I'm contrarian like a mutha.

 

The thing missing in this type of discussion is you need a trade partner in all cases.  Trading too early or too late really isn't a reality.  By that I mean the whole point of a trade is to get something that helps your team based on where it is at and where it is going.  If you get a deal that you think is a benefit to your team then you trade a guy.  Being too late or too early is really irrelevant.  

 

It's fun to discuss guys and the too early/late debate but in reality it doesn't matter.  Do you get better or not through a move to trade a guy.  Nobody is ever untouchable.....it just matters if you get a positive return or not.  

[Helaire-ious 124]

10 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I don't think a single name on that list should be valued that high except maybe Hunt, who I wouldn't pay that for. Yeah I would either take a RB at 1.10 or move up as you say. 

+1

I would pay the 1.10 for Ekeler. I tried to get him for my 1.09 & was denied

Edited February 23 by Helaire-ious

[DropKick 1,133]

On 2/21/2021 at 12:11 PM, JohnnyU said:

Yes, you know the old saying, "it's better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.".  Twenty-nine may be a year too late.

I agree but also counter that maybe Belichick used that approach with Brady and it bit him in the ####.

[IHEARTFF 1,201]

2 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

+1

I would pay the 1.10 for Ekeler. I tried to get him for my 1.09 & was denied

Think you need a top 5 pick at worst

[Edgar 272]

23 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Think you need a top 5 pick at worst

If you can get a top 5 pick for Ekeler your click-accept finger will be in a cast 

[joey 1,536]

15 hours ago, menobrown said:

I do like the ROJO suggestion that Big Al threw out and he'd the one from the group I'd want but while I think Fournette will walk and I do think ROJO is likely to be the main two down back we know Tampa is a big FA on the cheap destination. Solid guess a Fournette like player is picked up by Tampa, plus Vaughn might emerge.

If you got lower cost I'd look at  Mostert. I was highly anti-Mostert last year on these boards but that was relative to his cost. I think he's cost right now and I believe SF has only drafted one RB since Kyle arrived.

Now if you are moving up or trading for a RB that cost more then 1.10 my top buy low RB,  actually make that top buy low player, and this won't be a popular opinion, is CEH.

We know how these FFPC rookie drafts go, hard to get a RB you feel good about helping you in 2021 at 1.10.  You can hope you get one but hope is not a plan.

Alternatively try not to stress on need if you don't get a deal you like and in that case I would recommend BPA or better yet if you don't really like someone is try to move that 1.10 for a 2022#1 but not to draft. I wrote this somewhere else but a league of mine last year someone got ahold of a bunch of 2021#1's in-season and then started picking up Taylor and Dobbins on the cheap after slow starts by them and their teams, paying way less then the draft capital used to obtain them.  Just remember you got time to work this out, don't burn the asset on something that makes you feel better in the spring.

Not loving RoJo and actually already own Mostert (so I’m glad to hear you like him!) but I like the idea of just trading for a 2022 1st if I’m sitting at 1.10 and don’t like my options. 

15 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Ekeler is my target RB for my late 1sts if the team isn't competitive. The problem right now is all teams think they can turn it around before season starts so they might not sell for that late 1st. He's worth more than those guys you listed for sure, but in the right situation I can see him traded for that. 

As for that value specifically, I'd target someone lower and a trade down instead of straight up for the 1.10. Vaughn, Harris, Ballage, Cohen and an early 2nd maybe? 

I think you're better off using that piece to trade up though, instead of down or straight up. 

Don’t think I’d get Ekeler, who I’m iffy on anyway, since that owner and I have yet to see eye to eye on value after a bunch of tries these past 2 years. 

And, yeah, looking at the RBs in a similar value range (according to Hindery's chart at least) I don’t see any options I love so I think it’s either stay at 1.10 and take BPA, or trade up with a package of pick and another player (Pittman or Shenault), or trade for a 2022 1st if I hate all of the options.
 

thanks for all of the replies everyone. 

[JohnnyU 4,344]

11 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

+1

I would pay the 1.10 for Ekeler. I tried to get him for my 1.09 & was denied

I wouldn't with this draft.   I wouldn't trade any of these 10 players for Ekeler.  Harris, Chase, Williams, Etienne, Smith, Waddle, Bateman, Pitts, Lawrence, or R Moore.  You could probably add to that Gainwell, D Brown  E Moore and Jefferson.

Edited February 23 by JohnnyU

[Helaire-ious 124]

9 hours ago, Edgar said:

If you can get a top 5 pick for Ekeler your click-accept finger will be in a cast 

Agreed

[Helaire-ious 124]

Is Golladay a hold in PPR or should he be moved for late 1st 2021 rookie picks like a 1.08 or 1.09?

[Gally 5,151]

58 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Is Golladay a hold in PPR or should he be moved for late 1st 2021 rookie picks like a 1.08 or 1.09?

I would keep Golladay at this point (depending on what your WR situation looks like).  I am fairly high on Golladay though so my view is a bit skewed.  

 

 

[Zyphros 2,029]

59 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Is Golladay a hold in PPR or should he be moved for late 1st 2021 rookie picks like a 1.08 or 1.09?

I'd move him for a 1st for sure. Injuries have piled up, he was never that dynamic to begin with, more of a contested catch guy and didn't really get the volume. His value was always inflated to me. 

[barackdhouse 2,442]

Just now, Zyphros said:

I'd move him for a 1st for sure. Injuries have piled up, he was never that dynamic to begin with, more of a contested catch guy and didn't really get the volume. His value was always inflated to me. 

+1

[Blick 1,248]

2 minutes ago, Gally said:

I would keep Golladay at this point (depending on what your WR situation looks like).  I am fairly high on Golladay though so my view is a bit skewed.  

 

 

I wouldn't sell Golladay for 1.08 or 1.09.  However, based on other replies, its seems like that may be his perceived value.

[Gally 5,151]

12 minutes ago, Blick said:

I wouldn't sell Golladay for 1.08 or 1.09.  However, based on other replies, its seems like that may be his perceived value.

Golladay seems to have a wide range of perceived value unfortunately in the leagues I don't have him in the owner that does values him as much or higher than me so I haven't been able to get him on the cheap (based on my valuation).  

[Dr. Octopus 16,974]

1 hour ago, Gally said:

I would keep Golladay at this point (depending on what your WR situation looks like).  I am fairly high on Golladay though so my view is a bit skewed.  

 

 

One more injury plagued season and his value tanks completely. I'm also not sure Goff helps him maintain value even without injury. I'd surely take the 1.08/1.09. IMO either way is rolling the dice - may as well skew younger.

Edited February 23 by Dr. Octopus

[menobrown 4,240]

Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

One more injury plagues season and his value tanks completely. I'm also not sure Goff helps him maintain value even without injury. I's surely take the 1.08/1.09.

In another thread I had said that despite my belief Stafford is a big upgrade in real football there was no significant impact to a player on either team that I felt strongly about. But when I said that I was not thinking of Golladay as part of the Lions. If Golladay actually remained in Detroit I'd amend what I said in that post because I think Goff would absolutely lower his value and if he remains with the Lions I'd label him as the biggest loser of that trade.

 

[rockaction 26,168]

I think I value Golladay higher than that. That's a lot of points to be replacing with Rondale Moore or someone of that ilk. My two cents.

 

[FreeBaGeL 9,328]

I've never been a Golladay fan.

He is entering his age 28 season with a career best finish of WR14 in PPG, and that was in a down scoring WR year.  Similarly aged guys like Woods, Lockett, Boyd all have a better career high and a better 3 year average in PPG and are much cheaper.

He reminds me a lot of a better Donte Moncrief in that the last remaining bull case was always "one day Golladay and Stafford are both going to be healthy for 16 games together and he will finally blow up", and now even that ship has sailed.

Edited February 23 by FreeBaGeL

[menobrown 4,240]

2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think I value Golladay higher than that. That's a lot of points to be replacing with Rondale Moore or someone of that ilk. My two cents.

 

I'd take 1.8 or 1.9 for him but I don't disagree the premise of what you are saying. It will be hard, odds  probably won't be in you favor, of whoever you drafting putting up the points that Golladay would.

But whoever I picked would be younger and  if I can get close to the production while getting far younger I'd consider that a win while giving myself a shot at the ultimate goal of getting younger and as good or better.

[Gally 5,151]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

One more injury plagued season and his value tanks completely. I'm also not sure Goff helps him maintain value even without injury. I'd surely take the 1.08/1.09. IMO either way is rolling the dice - may as well skew younger.

He has really only had one injury plagued year (last year with a mysterious hip injury - could it be he didn't want to risk worse injuries with the Lions?).  2018/2019 he played full seasons and his rookie year he missed 5 games but wasn't really utilized much anyway.  

 

I don't see Golladay as a higher injury risk than any typical WR.  I am not sure why you are putting his value hinging on injury status.  I would rather take a guy that I know can be a top 5-ish NFL WR for fantasy than a rookie at pick 8-12 of the first round.

[Dr. Octopus 16,974]

12 minutes ago, Gally said:

He has really only had one injury plagued year (last year with a mysterious hip injury - could it be he didn't want to risk worse injuries with the Lions?).  2018/2019 he played full seasons and his rookie year he missed 5 games but wasn't really utilized much anyway.  

 

I don't see Golladay as a higher injury risk than any typical WR.  I am not sure why you are putting his value hinging on injury status.  I would rather take a guy that I know can be a top 5-ish NFL WR for fantasy than a rookie at pick 8-12 of the first round.

I'm not saying he's a higher risk for injury but at his age, and coming off an injury plagued year, if they pile up again you won't get a second round pick for him this time next offseason.

Of course one doesn't have to treat every player like a tradable asset, and you could always just hold and hope for a productive 2022 should that happen. But at that point he'll be 30 and his value isn't coming back.

I also mentioned Goff potentially hurting his value as well so I didn't say all his value hinges on staying healthy.

When has Gollday ever been a top 5ish WR? I'd argue there's likely a much better chance that the WR picked at 1.08 turns in a top 5 season than Golladay going forward.

Edited February 23 by Dr. Octopus

[Gally 5,151]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm not saying he's a higher risk for injury but at his age, and coming off an injury plagued year, if they pile up again you won't get a second round pick for him this time next offseason.

Of course one doesn't have to treat every player like a tradable asset, and you could always just hold and hope for a productive 2022 should that happen. But at that point he'll be 30 and his value isn't coming back.

I also mentioned Goff potentially hurting his value as well so I didn't say all his value hinges on staying healthy.

When has Gollday ever been a top 5ish WR? I'd argue there's likely a much better chance that the WR picked at 1.08 turns in a top 5 season than Golladay going forward.

He was in my scoring (non-PPR with bonus at 100 yds) in 2019.  He finished #3 behind Thomas and Godwin and that season happened with crap QB's for half the year.  I don't think Goff will necessarily hurt Golladay, although I don't think he will be back in Detroit.  

 

My only real concern with him is the mysterious hip ailment that he never came back from.  I haven't seen any diagnosis and have wondered if it was something that wasn't as bad as keeping him out for most of the season but since there was no reason to get back as the Lions weren't going anything he took it easy to make sure he was healthy going into free agency.  Regardless, I am a believer.  

[Blick 1,248]

If that pick for Golladay was 1.04, I’d feel much better about my return. 

Edited February 23 by Blick

[Blick 1,248]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

When has Gollday ever been a top 5ish WR? I'd argue there's likely a much better chance that the WR picked at 1.08 turns in a top 5 season than Golladay going forward.

Not saying that I think Golladay is a top 5 WR, but I would take that bet. 

[IHEARTFF 1,201]

13 hours ago, Edgar said:

If you can get a top 5 pick for Ekeler your click-accept finger will be in a cast 

I don't know. If the 1.5 was offered to me today, I probably would not accept it. I would for the 1.3 or better. So I guess I value him much higher than you do.

[Dr. Octopus 16,974]

14 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

I don't know. If the 1.5 was offered to me today, I probably would not accept it. 

I have a feeling that's not something you'll need to worry about.

[Edgar 272]

9 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

I don't know. If the 1.5 was offered to me today, I probably would not accept it. I would for the 1.3 or better. So I guess I value him much higher than you do.

Gimme Najee/Etienne/Javonte/Chase/Smith/Waddle/Pitts over him no question. After that it's debatable. I get that Ekeler had a monstrous 2019, but I just don't see the 26 year old 200lb UDFA scat back worth much. What are we hoping for from Ekeler? 1-2 more seasons of RB2? He's never rushed for 600 yards and only once has he cracked 1000 yards total. Now is the time to take your mid first and laugh to the bank

[Dr. Octopus 16,974]

18 minutes ago, Blick said:

Not saying that I think Golladay is a top 5 WR, but I would take that bet. 

Well Golladay has never been a top 5 WR, is heading into his age 28 season coming off an injury that kept him out of most of last season. I stand by that statement, even realizing that whoever is picked there could potentially be a total bust.

[IHEARTFF 1,201]

7 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Gimme Najee/Etienne/Javonte/Chase/Smith/Waddle/Pitts over him no question. After that it's debatable. I get that Ekeler had a monstrous 2019, but I just don't see the 26 year old 200lb UDFA scat back worth much. What are we hoping for from Ekeler? 1-2 more seasons of RB2? He's never rushed for 600 yards and only once has he cracked 1000 yards total. Now is the time to take your mid first and laugh to the bank

You have a good point.

~80 catches is pretty awesome in ppr out of a rb. I would expect 2 more seasons of that and then I don't know.

[Blick 1,248]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Well Golladay has never been a top 5 WR, is heading into his age 28 season coming off an injury that kept him out of most of last season. I stand by that statement, even realizing that whoever is picked there could potentially be a total bust.

The more I think about it, you could be right. It will be interesting to see where he ends up. I think he’s a much safer option than the 1.08, but may not have the upside. 

[barackdhouse 2,442]

Why does it have to be a WR replacing his production at ~1.08? Why is it always a 1 for 1 comp? IMO his WR production is easy to replace with other cheaper WRs but why not compare to a RB, which is not easily replaceable? Why do I have to take a WR there if I move Golladay? In the one league I did move him he was my 4th WR that was never going to start for me. So what production exactly did I replace? If he is rotting on my bench.

I think these 1 for 1 comps ignore that there are maybe a dozen different ways to do something potentially profitable and/or helpful for your club if you have the ~1.08 but if you have Golladay you have only one, IMO, which is to hope he outperforms his 2019 season. I am betting against that and as he ages even more the comparison to the ~1.08 becomes not close to me. 

Bottom line 2019 production is not winning any FFPC leagues. I don't hate Golladay but he is replaceable, older and I might very well feel differently in a deeper roster format. 

[Andy Dufresne 12,844]

Brandin Cooks in non-ppr...early 2nd? A 2nd+?

His "value" seems to be approximately a 1st according to the calculators, but nobody will pay that (myself included).

[JohnnyU 4,344]

9 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Brandin Cooks in non-ppr...early 2nd? A 2nd+?

His "value" seems to be approximately a 1st according to the calculators, but nobody will pay that (myself included).

No, I wouldn't want Cooks, even for a 2nd.  I saw someone give the 1.09 in a devy league for Odell Beckham Jr and two 3rd rd picks. I wouldn't give up the 1.09 in a devy draft for that.  It's a league where both devys (college underclassman) and rookies are combined in the draft.  The reason I bring up this trade is just to go over what some people still view as 1st rd pick value.  I believe FF players can have clouded judgement on player values due to name recognition.  Cooks was ranked about 27th WR.  In the Curtis Samuel and Marvin Jones range.  I'm not saying Cooks is garbage, he isn't, but in this draft I'm not interested in Cooks unless I was giving up a 3rd rd pick and I was a contender.