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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Brandin Cooks in non-ppr...early 2nd? A 2nd+?

His "value" seems to be approximately a 1st according to the calculators, but nobody will pay that (myself included).

Not going to be any interest except for very cheap until the Watson situation is resolved. If Watson stays, if they don’t resign Fuller, if they don’t trade Watson and then draft a WR high, if Cooks isn’t traded or cut for cap savings himself, etc. Cooks is worth a mid-2nd if he gets through all that IMO but that is a lot of if’s.

Hard to predict anything with the Texans with Professor Chaos and General Disarray running the show there.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks.  These guys hit at what, a 20% rate?  15%?  It's a miserable number.  I'd be pretty surprised if

2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Brandin Cooks in non-ppr...early 2nd? A 2nd+?

His "value" seems to be approximately a 1st according to the calculators, but nobody will pay that (myself included).

I would be leery of acquiring Cooks due to the turmoil with Watson.  If Watson leaves then Cooks takes a big hit.

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So Cooks could be had for cheap, or not at all. Cool.

How about Denzel Mims? Did he show enough to be any sort of target? New coaching staff at least...

Seems like rookie fever is heading up with people fishing for picks.

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5 hours ago, Gally said:

I would be leery of acquiring Cooks due to the turmoil with Watson.  If Watson leaves then Cooks takes a big hit.

Cooks might not even be a Texan in 21 - no dead cap if cut, the Texans have no cap space as-is, and they already have the 2nd most in cap commitments in '22.

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7 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

So Cooks could be had for cheap, or not at all. Cool.

How about Denzel Mims? Did he show enough to be any sort of target? New coaching staff at least...

Seems like rookie fever is heading up with people fishing for picks.

I’m a hold on Mims. In fact, I picked him up in a couple leagues where disgruntled owner rage dropped him, evidently. I’m willing to give him another full season given his measurable. Thinking he could pan out. 

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22 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Cooks might not even be a Texan in 21 - no dead cap if cut, the Texans have no cap space as-is, and they already have the 2nd most in cap commitments in '22.

He is a definite candidate for a cut, restructure or trade in 2021. My guess is restructure because they have nothing else at WR but we’ll see depending on what Prof Chaos and General Disarray are thinking.

2022 Texans can easily get out of their cap mess (finding good players to replace the dead weight will be the hard part.) They have about 6 guys in their top 12 salaries that should all be cut next year that they can’t cut this year because of guaranteed money BOB handed out. Guys they won’t miss like Cobb, Mercilus, McKinney, etc. Another handful not worth their salaries like Fairbairn, Brandon Dunn, or Nick Martin for example. If they end up trading Watson it frees up over $40MM off their cap too (hollow victory.)

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8 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Who has more value in PPR both now & future: Hunt or Aiyuk?

 

I lean Aiyuk

That is a tough one because of the position aspect.  Hunt has such a high upside if Chubb were to get injured (even though it didn't really show for the few games Chubb missed this year it was still solid).  

 

I just don't have confidence in the offense to provide consistent usage for Aiyuk even though he has shown he is worth it.  I guess my answer depends on what position I need more on who would be more valuable to me.  

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3 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

Shenault price check? Buy for a 2 sell for a 1 approximately?

I think he is a guy that is near impossible to move in a trade (both ways) because of your exact statement.  Guys trying to buy are wanting a discount to take him on and guys looking to sell want an upside built into the price.  

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

That is a tough one because of the position aspect.  Hunt has such a high upside if Chubb were to get injured (even though it didn't really show for the few games Chubb missed this year it was still solid).  

 

I just don't have confidence in the offense to provide consistent usage for Aiyuk even though he has shown he is worth it.  I guess my answer depends on what position I need more on who would be more valuable to me.  

Definitely tough due to the positions. I suppose Aiyuk's value goes down with Deebo back full time, but does it go down enough? I don't know. I must be in the minority & believe Hunt is overrated. Like you mentioned, he didn't really do anything when Chubb was out...

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27 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Definitely tough due to the positions. I suppose Aiyuk's value goes down with Deebo back full time, but does it go down enough? I don't know. I must be in the minority & believe Hunt is overrated. Like you mentioned, he didn't really do anything when Chubb was out...

Hunt still had 23 (3 rec), 15 (2), 21 (3), and 16 (2) touches in those four games with two TD's.  He was fine but didn't have the ceiling some would expect.  I still think he becomes a top 12 ish RB if Chubb is gone which probably has more value than Aiyuk would ever have.  The problem is Chubb is there so the discussion happens.  I just think SF uses such an inconsistent game plan for touches (good for the NFL not good for fantasy) that it makes it hard for me to trust their players.  

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18 minutes ago, Gally said:

I think he is a guy that is near impossible to move in a trade (both ways) because of your exact statement.  Guys trying to buy are wanting a discount to take him on and guys looking to sell want an upside built into the price.  

Exactly. I own him and I might not even sell for anything less than a mid-1st. He flashed last year. He has a (theoretically) stud rookie QB throwing to him shortly. Why would I trade that away for anything less than a top 3 or 4WR prospect/dart throw? (But I know nothing about the rookies beyond the rankings I’m seeing)

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13 minutes ago, Gally said:

Hunt was still had 23 (3 rec), 15 (2), 21 (3), and 16 (2) touches in those four games with two TD's.  He was fine but didn't have the ceiling some would expect.  I still think he becomes a top 12 ish RB if Chubb is gone which probably has more value than Aiyuk would ever have.  The problem is Chubb is there so the discussion happens.  I just think SF uses such an inconsistent game plan for touches (good for the NFL not good for fantasy) that it makes it hard for me to trust their players.  

You make valid points & have me reconsidering my spot on the fence lol

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Hunt has 27 games on his resume prior to this year when he was a proven stud. Then Chubb missed a few weeks Hunt was trying to play through an injury of his own. People are putting way way to much emphasis on Hunts stats those few weeks, he's a stud, a proven one.

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41 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Who has more value in PPR both now & future: Hunt or Aiyuk?

 

I lean Aiyuk

Now, Aiyuk (only because of Hunt's curtain situation) but both are very talented pieces in a PPR league 

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50 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Who has more value in PPR both now & future: Hunt or Aiyuk?

 

I lean Aiyuk

Aiyuk

I just left a fairly pro-Hunt post.  If my Aiyuk answer seems contradictory to that post I would understand thinking that but while I view Hunt as a big time talent he's in a crap situation for what looks to be next few years and then age starts to matter. I still put a solid value on Hunt but  Aiyuk looked freaking great, like at times stunning athleticism. Some concern over QB, target load especially if defense gets back on track and they throw less but I'd still take him.

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15 hours ago, menobrown said:

Aiyuk

I just left a fairly pro-Hunt post.  If my Aiyuk answer seems contradictory to that post I would understand thinking that but while I view Hunt as a big time talent he's in a crap situation for what looks to be next few years and then age starts to matter. I still put a solid value on Hunt but  Aiyuk looked freaking great, like at times stunning athleticism. Some concern over QB, target load especially if defense gets back on track and they throw less but I'd still take him.

Generic statement here but I think that those who did not see him last year can not fully appreciate what you referred to as his "stunning athleticism".

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15 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Definitely tough due to the positions. I suppose Aiyuk's value goes down with Deebo back full time, but does it go down enough? I don't know. I must be in the minority & believe Hunt is overrated. Like you mentioned, he didn't really do anything when Chubb was out...

FWIW Hunt was battling a couple injuries while Chubb was out. Plus one of those games was being boat raced by Pittsburgh.

In a vacuum I'd go Aiyuk, but since I'm heavily invested in Deebo I specifically would not. 

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15 hours ago, menobrown said:

Aiyuk

I just left a fairly pro-Hunt post.  If my Aiyuk answer seems contradictory to that post I would understand thinking that but while I view Hunt as a big time talent he's in a crap situation for what looks to be next few years and then age starts to matter. I still put a solid value on Hunt but  Aiyuk looked freaking great, like at times stunning athleticism. Some concern over QB, target load especially if defense gets back on track and they throw less but I'd still take him.

Chubb is a UFA after '21

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2 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Chubb is a UFA after '21

I know but I don't even think for a second he won't get extended.  Just combo of how highly they regard the person and what he means to the way the team's offense runs. 

What I've thought over a few times is how will Hunt react when Chubb signs for like $15M a year. A true backup talent or COP  back would be more then fine with Hunts pay and secondary role but I really can't help but wonder if the extremely team friendly deal and secondary role won't start to eat at him when Chubb is not on his rookie contract. That's just human nature but maybe he just loves playing for the Browns so much he just won't care.

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I know but I don't even think for a second he won't get extended.  Just combo of how highly they regard the person and what he means to the way the team's offense runs. 

What I've thought over a few times is how will Hunt react when Chubb signs for like $15M a year. A true backup talent or COP  back would be more then fine with Hunts pay and secondary role but I really can't help but wonder if the extremely team friendly deal and secondary role won't start to eat at him when Chubb is not on his rookie contract. That's just human nature but maybe he just loves playing for the Browns so much he just won't care.

If any RB will get this group to offer an extension it'll be Chubb, but given the other priorities coming up someone(s) are going to get the short end of the stick. When presented with not extending one of Mayfield, Ward, Teller, and Chubb I think the latter is the most expendable. I think Berry will make an offer, but I also think Chubb will get more than that number on the open market.

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15 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I know but I don't even think for a second he won't get extended.  Just combo of how highly they regard the person and what he means to the way the team's offense runs. 

What I've thought over a few times is how will Hunt react when Chubb signs for like $15M a year. A true backup talent or COP  back would be more then fine with Hunts pay and secondary role but I really can't help but wonder if the extremely team friendly deal and secondary role won't start to eat at him when Chubb is not on his rookie contract. That's just human nature but maybe he just loves playing for the Browns so much he just won't care.

Hunt also was given a second chance by the Browns after what could have been the end of his career.  He may just feel obligated/lucky that he was given that chance and enjoy playing there under these circumstances.  This situation has many facets to it that may not be involved in your typical RB situation.  

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6 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

If any RB will get this group to offer an extension it'll be Chubb, but given the other priorities coming up someone(s) are going to get the short end of the stick. When presented with not extending one of Mayfield, Ward, Teller, and Chubb I think the latter is the most expendable. I think Berry will make an offer, but I also think Chubb will get more than that number on the open market.

I think Chubb gets extended this off-season, he won't see the open market. I wish I could remember who it was I heard on an interview last year, can't even recall if it was a ex-coach or front office person on Browns, but this person could not stop raving about Chubb the person. Talking about unsolicited raving. His life expectancy at the position is short, but he's more integral to that offense then Baker. That offense runs through the RB's.

Anyway we will agree to disagree, I'd put odds Chubb is not resigned in like 1% range. I think it's more likely Baker is not resigned.

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4 minutes ago, Gally said:

Hunt also was given a second chance by the Browns after what could have been the end of his career.  He may just feel obligated/lucky that he was given that chance and enjoy playing there under these circumstances.  This situation has many facets to it that may not be involved in your typical RB situation.  

For sure he was damaged goods and enjoys playing for the Browns  but what you are saying implies the Browns were the only team to throw him a lifeline. I'm not ready to make that assumption.

 

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Just now, menobrown said:

For sure he was damaged goods and enjoys playing for the Browns  but what you are saying implies the Browns were the only team to throw him a lifeline. I'm not ready to make that assumption.

 

Maybe not but they were the lifeline he grabbed and probably feels gratitude for it. 

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I think Chubb gets extended this off-season, he won't see the open market. I wish I could remember who it was I heard on an interview last year, can't even recall if it was a ex-coach or front office person on Browns, but this person could not stop raving about Chubb the person. Talking about unsolicited raving. His life expectancy at the position is short, but he's more integral to that offense then Baker. That offense runs through the RB's.

Anyway we will agree to disagree, I'd put odds Chubb is not resigned in like 1% range. I think it's more likely Baker is not resigned.

I agree that if a Chubb extension happens it's most likely to happen in the next few months. I also agree about the assessment of Chubb the person, that combined with his skills as a runner is why I think he could be the exception to the don't extend RB's rule (if he accepts the Browns price). But I strongly disagree about his importance to the offense v Baker - the offense runs through the RB is a false narrative that bore itself out in the latter part of the season.

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IIRC, Hunt is originally from Cleveland which factored greatly into his decision to resign with them after they gave him a chance. I recall some of us worrying in his thread about how being around his friends and family circle may end up being a bad thing given his bad behavior and character issues.

At this point I am hoping Hunt gets traded. His contract is pretty attractive, I am just not sure Cleveland wouldn’t rather just hold him as Chubb injury insurance and 1-2 punch at RB though. Good for nfl football, bad for fantasy.

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1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

. But I strongly disagree about his importance to the offense v Baker - the offense runs through the RB is a false narrative that bore itself out in the latter part of the season.

Not to keep going around and around on this but I don't agree with this at all.

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33 minutes ago, Buckna said:

IIRC, Hunt is originally from Cleveland which factored greatly into his decision to resign with them after they gave him a chance. I recall some of us worrying in his thread about how being around his friends and family circle may end up being a bad thing given his bad behavior and character issues.

At this point I am hoping Hunt gets traded. His contract is pretty attractive, I am just not sure Cleveland wouldn’t rather just hold him as Chubb injury insurance and 1-2 punch at RB though. Good for nfl football, bad for fantasy.

He is - Dorsey also originally drafted him.

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33 minutes ago, Buckna said:

IIRC, Hunt is originally from Cleveland which factored greatly into his decision to resign with them after they gave him a chance. I recall some of us worrying in his thread about how being around his friends and family circle may end up being a bad thing given his bad behavior and character issues.

At this point I am hoping Hunt gets traded. His contract is pretty attractive, I am just not sure Cleveland wouldn’t rather just hold him as Chubb injury insurance and 1-2 punch at RB though. Good for nfl football, bad for fantasy.

He's a great signing by the Browns and I view him and Chubb as the best RB duo I've ever seen. There may be better complements, but it's the two most talented RB's on same team IMO.

Hunt taking that team friendly deal was likely a combo of loyalty to Browns, love of playing for his hometown team but also I think he'd made around $2M total before he signed that deal which on the spot netted him over $5M guaranteed. Security when you don't come from much is huge.

Hope he made the right choice for himself. I remember that day he got pulled over and he sounded so damn sad and down. I do own him in dynasty but if I did not that's just the kind of person I tend to pull for both on the field and off. People probably think I'm a jerk because I tend to be vocal in my support for people like  Vick, Ray Rice, Antonio Brown. I just hate seeing someone make a mistake and throw it all away especially when they did not grow up with much. Unless what they did was just horrendously awful I find myself usually hardcore pulling for these people more then I did before their transgression. The line I hear people say all the time is "so and so does not deserve to be in the NFL". What do they deserve to do, flip your hamburger? I just don't like throwing people away over a mistake or two.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

 I just don't like throwing people away over a mistake or two.

I think when it comes to violent mistakes against another person or sexual assault/battery claims, they might get one more chance, and it really depends. Ray Rice? Nope. No second chance after watching that. Brown? Not with his lack of penitence. Hunt? I don't know...

I think most people fall on the second/third chance of the aisle when it comes to addiction and/or maturity issues. Violence is less of a go for most of us. 

But this is a little far afield.

I'm going Aiyuk over Hunt, because Aiyuk just looked every bit the part last year, and I got to see most of his games that he started. His athleticism against the Eagles that prime time night and that leap. Hoo boy. You can't coach that. And he seemed to vibe with Mullens. We'll see about Jimmy G and him, but he was an absolute stud for a bunch of games this year.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Vick, Ray Rice, Antonio Brown

Vick, along with Hunt, I'll give you.  While what Vick did was despicable, he seemed genuinely apologetic and sincere from the beginning about what he had allowed to happen.  I'm glad he was able to overcome and I think he's transformed into a great analyst.  

I never really thought what Hunt did was overly egregious, personally.  Should he have done it?  Certainly not.  You have to use better judgement than that.  He was a bit of a knucklehead early on in his career but he seems to have put all that behind him.

But Rice and Brown?  Not a bit of sympathy for either from me.  Rice's incident was extremely hard to watch, and I don't care to see it again.  And Brown has just had too many flareups and stupid moments for me to gloss over.  He seems to be on his best behavior right now in Tampa, so maybe Tom and Bruce have finally straightened him out. 

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6 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

FWIW Hunt was battling a couple injuries while Chubb was out. Plus one of those games was being boat raced by Pittsburgh.

In a vacuum I'd go Aiyuk, but since I'm heavily invested in Deebo I specifically would not. 

I've seen this a few places now. Why though? Deebo is a good player, so is Aiyuk. Buy good players. It's not like we haven't seen multiple WR's on a single team be valuable. If anything that would hedge your bet between one or the other. 

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3 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I've seen this a few places now. Why though? Deebo is a good player, so is Aiyuk. Buy good players. It's not like we haven't seen multiple WR's on a single team be valuable. If anything that would hedge your bet between one or the other. 

I think it's important to decision make based on one's own strengths and weaknesses. I think there are some areas of the game in which I am generally better than my competition, but weekly starting decisions ain't one of them. If a decision is not obvious my success rate is poor, so I build my teams with an objective to minimize these potential issues. Two good (but not great) WR's from the same team runs counter to that objective. It'd be one thing if Aiyuk were discounted right now (buy with intentions on moving one or the other), but I don't think he is.

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11 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I've seen this a few places now. Why though? Deebo is a good player, so is Aiyuk. Buy good players. It's not like we haven't seen multiple WR's on a single team be valuable. If anything that would hedge your bet between one or the other. 

In my opinion it’s because...

1) we know SF likes to run the ball

2) Kittle is WR#1 there so Deebo and Aiyuk are fighting for WR2 and WR3 spots

3) some offenses are just NOT designed to support more than 2 pass catchers and SF appears to be one of those offenses. 

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17 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

In my opinion it’s because...

1) we know SF likes to run the ball

2) Kittle is WR#1 there so Deebo and Aiyuk are fighting for WR2 and WR3 spots

3) some offenses are just NOT designed to support more than 2 pass catchers and SF appears to be one of those offenses. 

I'm not convinced that's true...yet anyway. I think Shanahan is confident in his ability to manufacture an effective running game, but if he has a better passing game then he would adjust. Plus Deebo isn't a traditional WR anyway.

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10 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

 but if he has a better passing game then he would adjust.

I've heard people who used to work in the league say Kyle is the best in the NFL at knowing how to scheme people open so I've no doubt he can adjust. The concern I have is when their defense is healthy again how much do they need to throw if the running game and defense are working.

It is a valid point however you raise about Deebo being a non-traditional WR. He could almost be viewed as more of an extension of the running game then passing game at times.

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8 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I've heard people who used to work in the league say Kyle is the best in the NFL at knowing how to scheme people open so I've no doubt he can adjust. The concern I have is when their defense is healthy again how much do they need to throw if the running game and defense are working.

It is a valid point however you raise about Deebo being a non-traditional WR. He could almost be viewed as more of an extension of the running game then passing game at times.

I don't think we are going to see anything like the 2019 SF defense again anytime soon. They already lost Buckner. Now Saleh's out. They have to replace their entire cornerback depth chart, their best run defender (DJ Jones), and oft injured Tartt at safety (they have a rookie). They also have an expiring Warner that will need extended sometime in the next 12 months - and aren't in a great cap situation. As is their core is really just him, Bosa, and Ward with Greenlaw, Armstead, Kinlaw, and (maybe) Ford to compliment and they don't have many resources to rebuild around them unless they ignore the offense.

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I've seen this a few places now. Why though? Deebo is a good player, so is Aiyuk. Buy good players. It's not like we haven't seen multiple WR's on a single team be valuable. If anything that would hedge your bet between one or the other. 

Normally I would agree but I think having someone like Kittle changes it. With that in mind I'd rather have Aiyuk. 

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What do you think Beckham is worth, particularly draft pick compensation, but if you have any recent trades that have included him I'd be interested in seeing them draft picks or not.

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57 minutes ago, RC94 said:

What do you think Beckham is worth, particularly draft pick compensation, but if you have any recent trades that have included him I'd be interested in seeing them draft picks or not.

Probably one of those dead zone guys (there are a lot actually) where nobody will pay what his owner wants and the owner would rather hold than sell too cheap. Late 1st. Nobody is paying that and nobody will take an early 2nd. 

Maybe. 

I turned down one counter offer that was part of a bigger deal that had OBJ coming to me but I swapped him for Corey Davis and an extra current 3rd instead. I just don't have a lot of faith in either what his role with the Browns will be, whether he comes back healthy, whether he isn't completely cuckoo anyway, and for the price I'm just not a buyer. Not that I'm a Davis truther but I just liked it better.

FFPC centric take is that people are up against cuts right now and as that constraint tightens over March, he might be had for a mid 2nd or cheaper as part of a package. In other words, if buying OBJ helps your partner get to their cutdown mark, he could probably be had for cheaper. 

If he is one of those dead zone guys then in my experience packages are where the most value can be obtained, rather than a straight draft pick. But yeah late 1st early 2nd.

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4 hours ago, RC94 said:

What do you think Beckham is worth, particularly draft pick compensation, but if you have any recent trades that have included him I'd be interested in seeing them draft picks or not.

He has barely been moved in my dozen dynasty leagues. Although I did move him last year when I had some injuries and was trying to 3peat (didn't unfortunately) and made this trade:

Gave: Barkley, Beckham, Harry

Got: Chubbs, Cooper, Mike Davis

In hindsight I made more a redraft trade in a dynasty league, never a great idea, but I had CMC and Barkley both out and wanted to try and 3peat. Luckily I made a few other trades that did pan out well (gave up Parker and Hamler for Claypool and traded Thielen for what became the 1.5 pick this year for example) 

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In case anyone wanted a price point for Herbert in a 12 team 1 QB league, he was just traded in one of my dynasty leagues - Herbert for Tannehill and 1.12.

 

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13 minutes ago, RC94 said:

In case anyone wanted a price point for Herbert in a 12 team 1 QB league, he was just traded in one of my dynasty leagues - Herbert for Tannehill and 1.12.

 

Great deal for the new Herbert Owner...locks down his QB position with a potential top 5 QB for at least a decade without giving up too much.

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How would you guys value Cooper Kupp in 0.5 PPR?

 

On the one hand, he's going on 28, with an injury history, and on a team that sometimes neglects him in the passing game for stretches. On the other hand, he's got a new QB who loves to sling the ball, put up 92 rec for 974 yds and 3 TD last season while playing injured, and doesn't have too much competition for targets.

 

Would he be valued around a late first? What would you give for him?

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