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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It looks like he likely did look at your roster and figured some owners like having a handcuff. He was also not trying to gouge you in anyway, only asking for a fifth. Expecting him to look at every player on your roster and then to decide what guys would be worth dropping or not is asking a little too much. 

I agree with that, but I don't have that expectation at all. My point is that he was trying to upsell me on it, which is what we'd been bantering about upthread. People are always telling us FFPC guys who we should cut and where we have room or don't. And it is annoying. Most times there are grey areas on rosters where I wouldn't hold it against anyone but this team in particular has no #######g room and I even have a message board post talking about players I'm trying to sell to get under the limit. I have no expectation of them looking at my roster that close but if they do it on their own and then offer unsolicited sales pitches that are absurd then yes it's a little bit of a thing. That's all this is. Just to get people to not be used car salesmen. That's it.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

5 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I agree with that, but I don't have that expectation at all. My point is that he was trying to upsell me on it, which is what we'd been bantering about upthread. People are always telling us FFPC guys who we should cut and where we have room or don't. And it is annoying. Most times there are grey areas on rosters where I wouldn't hold it against anyone but this team in particular has no #######g room and I even have a message board post talking about players I'm trying to sell to get under the limit. I have no expectation of them looking at my roster that close but if they do it on their own and then offer unsolicited sales pitches that are absurd then yes it's a little bit of a thing. That's all this is. Just to get people to not be used car salesmen. That's it.

Honestly some one saying "You're weak at RB and this guy can help you" along with a trade offer of a handcuff RB for fifth seems innocent enough. 

I think we're being a little too sensitive about some of these things - I've seen some ridiculous comments in offers I receive but bottom line it's really only the offer (whether it's good or bad) that matters. 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Honestly some one saying "You're weak at RB and this guy can help you" along with a trade offer of a handcuff RB for fifth seems innocent enough. 

I think we're being a little too sensitive about some of these things - I've seen some ridiculous comments in offers I receive but bottom line it's really only the offer (whether it's good or bad) that matters. 

That wasn't all he said that is just what I quoted. Also I just won the ship and I have Henry, AJones and Robinson. We only get to keep 16 and it is SF. To say I'm weak at RB is weird. All I did is not respond and declined, which I mentioned. 

On the second bolded, I have said the same thing upthread so I feel like I'm saying the sky is blue and you're arguing with me in order to tell me that the sky is blue.

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

That wasn't all he said that is just what I quoted. Also I just won the ship and I have Henry, AJones and Robinson. We only get to keep 16 and it is SF. To say I'm weak at RB is weird. All I did is not respond and declined, which I mentioned. 

On the second bolded, I have said the same thing upthread so I feel like I'm saying the sky is blue and you're arguing with me in order to tell me that the sky is blue.

Maybe you are a little sensitive :lmao:

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58 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm interested in McLaurin's value now - before the draft. Has the needle moved much? Will it even if WFT drafts a QB (which I don't expect them to)?

I'm wondering if I should use him to try and get a couple firsts - and if I can.

Mizelle March ADP has him at #36 overall and WR13.  I can see him around 30/WR10 today.  A healthy bump, but nothing dramatic.

I think best case you can get a mid/late 1st this year and a 2022 1st.  As good as he has been, the people who own the top half of 2021 1sts likely prefer whatever rookie they are enamored with, even though Terry is currently ahead of rookie 1.02 in ADP

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Maybe you are a little sensitive :lmao:

Probably true but I honestly thought I was adding something to the discussion as I find it fascinating. Not really as big of a deal as I think is being inferred. Just that there is some nuance in the way we talk to people in deals, that's really all it is. If I have diarhea of the word processor in this thread, I'll admit that. I'd like to reiterate that I didn't even respond to the guy. Just thought it was worth mentioning as an example of the thing someone else brought up.

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3 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Probably true but I honestly thought I was adding something to the discussion as I find it fascinating. Not really as big of a deal as I think is being inferred. Just that there is some nuance in the way we talk to people in deals, that's really all it is. If I have diarhea of the word processor in this thread, I'll admit that. I'd like to reiterate that I didn't even respond to the guy. Just thought it was worth mentioning as an example of the thing someone else brought up.

It's all good. 

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Mizelle March ADP has him at #36 overall and WR13.  I can see him around 30/WR10 today.  A healthy bump, but nothing dramatic.

I think best case you can get a mid/late 1st this year and a 2022 1st.  As good as he has been, the people who own the top half of 2021 1sts likely prefer whatever rookie they are enamored with, even though Terry is currently ahead of rookie 1.02 in ADP

I'm shocked. I got this year's 6 & 8 for him in a non-ppr.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm shocked. I got this year's 6 & 8 for him in a non-ppr.

Is this a rebuild for you? Curious if you'd still have made the trade if the offer was 1.8 and 1.11?

I'm trying to gauge his value myself. 

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14 minutes ago, Jail said:

Is this a rebuild for you? Curious if you'd still have made the trade if the offer was 1.8 and 1.11?

I'm trying to gauge his value myself. 

That'd be a little less appealing. I like picks 1-8. After that it's a little wonky. In the end, though, I'd probably still take it.

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Anyone have a gauge on Curtis Samuel's value?

Just featured in Reception Perception by Matt Harmon (which is free for two weeks, so go get reading!)

Offered Henry Ruggs plus 2.11 for him to sweeten the deal. Wondering what people's take on it is.

This was all I needed to make the offer, but I'm wondering what others think in more general terms so that it's not an AC Forum

https://receptionperception.com/curtis-samuel-2020-player-profile/

Edited by rockaction
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47 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Anyone have a gauge on Curtis Samuel's value?

Just featured in Reception Perception by Matt Harmon (which is free for two weeks, so go get reading!)

Offered Henry Ruggs plus 2.11 for him to sweeten the deal. Wondering what people's take on it is.

This was all I needed to make the offer, but I'm wondering what others think in more general terms so that it's not an AC Forum

https://receptionperception.com/curtis-samuel-2020-player-profile/

He came off in my startup yesterday before Reagor and after Mims. Ruggs just came off one round later. If that helps. 

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50 minutes ago, rockaction said:

 

Offered Henry Ruggs plus 2.11 for him to sweeten the deal. Wondering what people's take on it is.

I don't have Samuel on my radar the way I should. Last year in the preseason I think I can be found as saying I was fading Ridley for no more reason than I just didn't know enough about him. I knew I should know more but my basic take was I have Julio everywhere and he isn't Julio. 

So I hope I'm not making the same kind of mistake with Samuel. Because I would slam Ruggs and 2.11 today. 

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52 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I don't have Samuel on my radar the way I should. Last year in the preseason I think I can be found as saying I was fading Ridley for no more reason than I just didn't know enough about him. I knew I should know more but my basic take was I have Julio everywhere and he isn't Julio. 

So I hope I'm not making the same kind of mistake with Samuel. Because I would slam Ruggs and 2.11 today. 

Should very much be an accept on his end. I'm very much overpaying for a guy I think is way undervalued. Ruggs and him are almost equivalent, calc-wise. But when Matt Harmon was watching film and teased on Twitter, "no wonder the coaches are going after a new quarterback in Carolina," it became evident to me who he was talking about from watching some games. He's constantly open, especially deep. And I mean open. A bunch of us said to Hot Sauce Guy that he should not be quite as enthusiastic, but I think he was right. I think it's worth the pick to acquire him.

From Reception Perception, which I don't think he'll mind considering he's giving it two weeks free as a plug.

"He can operate as a slot receiver and rusher as he was for the Panthers last year but he can also win outside as a true receiver. Samuel has tested above the 88th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage in each of the last three seasons.

While he’s already proven himself as a good football player, the best could be yet to come for Samuel as he enters into the next chapter of his NFL career. We should all be hyped."

And yeah, I'm part seeing whether a guy who has never responded to me will. I'm sussing out long-term prospects of trading with him with this. If he doesn't accept or respond, then I'll know it wasn't the offer's value that is putting him off, but something else entirely, either it's me or it's because he's champ and doesn't want to tinker too much. I'm overpaying, but I think the value, as of this time next year, is with Samuel. And that's what we're trying to do, really. Beat the market rate.

But at the risk of getting too AC, this is really about Samuel. And Reception Perception's product (I have no affiliation to them in case anybody reading this has that inkling. Matt Harmon is a frequent contributor to Yahoo and does this now for a living). Harmon, who had Stefon Diggs tagged as a one of the best receivers in football before last year's breakout, watches all the film from all the receivers' games to get to the bottom of if they're winning routes when the ball isn't necessarily going to them. That's the pitch. So we'll see if he's right again. I tend to think so.

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Should very much be an accept on his end. I'm very much overpaying for a guy I think is way undervalued. Ruggs and him are almost equivalent, calc-wise. But when Matt Harmon was watching film and teased on Twitter, "no wonder the coaches are going after a new quarterback in Carolina," it became evident to me who he was talking about from watching some games. He's constantly open, especially deep. And I mean open. A bunch of us said to Hot Sauce Guy that he should not be quite as enthusiastic, but I think he was right. I think it's worth the pick to acquire him.

From Reception Perception, which I don't think he'll mind considering he's giving it two weeks free as a plug.

"He can operate as a slot receiver and rusher as he was for the Panthers last year but he can also win outside as a true receiver. Samuel has tested above the 88th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage in each of the last three seasons.

While he’s already proven himself as a good football player, the best could be yet to come for Samuel as he enters into the next chapter of his NFL career. We should all be hyped."

And yeah, I'm part seeing whether a guy who has never responded to me will. I'm sussing out long-term prospects of trading with him with this. If he doesn't accept or respond, then I'll know it wasn't the offer's value that is putting him off, but something else entirely, either it's me or it's because he's champ and doesn't want to tinker too much. I'm overpaying, but I think the value, as of this time next year, is with Samuel. And that's what we're trying to do, really. Beat the market rate.

But at the risk of getting too AC, this is really about Samuel. And Reception Perception's product (I have no affiliation for anybody reading this. Matt Harmon is a frequent contributor to Yahoo and does this now for a living), who had Stefon Diggs tagged as a one of the best receivers in football before last year's breakout. So we'll see.

I traded Samuel and my 4.10 in a standard 1 QB 12-team league for the 1.12, 3.12 and Sam Darnold. I own a lot of Samuel, but couldn't decline that offer. Him not signing anywhere is somewhat concerning if he is supposed to be that good. 

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5 minutes ago, Denver724 said:

I traded Samuel and my 4.10 in a standard 1 QB 12-team league for the 1.12, 3.12 and Sam Darnold. I own a lot of Samuel, but couldn't decline that offer. Him not signing anywhere is somewhat concerning if he is supposed to be that good. 

Thanks for the info. That's great. You got a good deal. The 1.12 equals a little more than what I'm offering. I might take that for Samuel. As it is, Ruggs' ADP-scaled calc is a mid-2nd, so I'd be spending about two seconds for him. As far as signing goes, I'm not too deterred by the early non-interest. Golladay and Fuller have yet to fall, so yeah, it really depends on what his agents and team are looking for as far as a salary goes. Agholor and Bourne going to the Pats, Davis to the Jets, and M. Jones to the Jags tells me a little about the market for Samuel, but it's not determinant. We'll start to see when the big guys fall who winds up with him. Regardless, I'm willing to take the risk and eat the cost on this one.

I hope our particulars help everybody out in gauging value. Seems to be the only empirical way to go about finding out values that aren't pure calculators is to find what others are buying or selling.

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25 minutes ago, Denver724 said:

I traded Samuel and my 4.10 in a standard 1 QB 12-team league for the 1.12, 3.12 and Sam Darnold. I own a lot of Samuel, but couldn't decline that offer. Him not signing anywhere is somewhat concerning if he is supposed to be that good. 

I agree with Rock that the WR market just hasn't quite got there yet. None of the top names have come off yet.

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Gotta think that Malcolm Brown signing with the Dolphins is bullish for Myles Gaskin. They could definitely still take a RB in the draft early on, but I think this is the kind of team that doesn't want to splurge/invest high draft capital at RB, and build elsewhere. 

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12 hours ago, dewaser said:

Gotta think that Malcolm Brown signing with the Dolphins is bullish for Myles Gaskin. They could definitely still take a RB in the draft early on, but I think this is the kind of team that doesn't want to splurge/invest high draft capital at RB, and build elsewhere. 

Sure, the Malcolm Brown signing is "good" for Gaskin (although I'm not sure Brown isn't the better all around RB), but I'm not yet convinced the Dolphins are done adding to the RB depth chart. 

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12 hours ago, dewaser said:

Gotta think that Malcolm Brown signing with the Dolphins is bullish for Myles Gaskin. They could definitely still take a RB in the draft early on, but I think this is the kind of team that doesn't want to splurge/invest high draft capital at RB, and build elsewhere. 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. I thought they had a ton of picks. Wouldn't be a splurge to take a top RB in there somewhere.

To me Brown is a bigger and better version of Gaskin and should fill largely the same role. Not nearly as fast but I think there is room for both as backups. Brown can back up the primary ball carrier *and* be a 3rd down back. Gaskin can as well but not as effectively IMO. Good depth signing.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Sure, the Malcolm Brown signing is "good" for Gaskin (although I'm not sure Brown isn't the better all around RB), but I'm not yet convinced the Dolphins are done adding to the RB depth chart. 

IMO, whenever they say “terms not disclosed” on a signing it usually means the contract is for peanuts (at least what passes for peanuts in the NFL.) I would agree that Brown could be just cheap depth/veteran presence.

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44 minutes ago, Buckna said:

IMO, whenever they say “terms not disclosed” on a signing it usually means the contract is for peanuts (at least what passes for peanuts in the NFL.) I would agree that Brown could be just cheap depth/veteran presence.

I can't find it now but I believe it was a one year deal for $1.7 MM with under $1MM guaranteed. Not prohibitive to even adding another RB in free agency let alone the draft.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I can't find it now but I believe it was a one year deal for $1.7 MM with under $1MM guaranteed.

OTC is showing he got his whole contract of $1.75M guaranteed but for sure no one should think this takes them out of the RB market and it sure should not be seen as good news for any MIA incumbent RB.

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41 minutes ago, menobrown said:

OTC is showing he got his whole contract of $1.75M guaranteed but for sure no one should think this takes them out of the RB market and it sure should not be seen as good news for any MIA incumbent RB.

Why should it not be good news? It’s much better than if Aaron Jones had signed, and it takes up a RB spot with a mediocre RB. If they filled the rest of their depth chart with Malcolm Browns, I’d be buying all the Gaskins I could get.

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Just now, kutta said:

Why should it not be good news? It’s much better than if Aaron Jones had signed, and it takes up a RB spot with a mediocre RB. If they filled the rest of their depth chart with Malcolm Browns, I’d be buying all the Gaskins I could get.

It's an addition of guaranteed money while doing zero to take them out of further additions. In other words it's just an addition which leaves me answering your question with a question. How is an addition good news?

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I'm inclined to think that the Miami backfield will be like New England's. A low-cost committee position (which is terrible for fantasy football) unless they invest draft capital in somebody. Which Brown and Gaskin don't preclude them from doing.

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

It's an addition of guaranteed money while doing zero to take them out of further additions. In other words it's just an addition which leaves me answering your question with a question. How is an addition good news?

It does take them out of further additions. That’s an open slot that is now filled, so it’s one less spot for another guy.

And adding mediocrity is good for the incumbent. I’m just not seeing how this is a bad thing.

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Just now, menobrown said:

It's an addition of guaranteed money while doing zero to take them out of further additions. In other words it's just an addition which leaves me answering your question with a question. How is an addition good news?

I get what kutta is saying. It's better than Fournette, Carson, or Jones, who presumably would all come in to be the man in that situation. A guaranteed body is just that, and it clogs Miami's roster and RB depth, but I thought I read that his contract isn't guaranteed unless he makes the team. But I see what you're saying as well. In no way does this preclude draft capital from being used.

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

It does take them out of further additions. That’s an open slot that is now filled, so it’s one less spot for another guy.

And adding mediocrity is good for the incumbent. I’m just not seeing how this is a bad thing.

Oh come one with signing Malcom Brown precludes them from making a further addition, that's a horse poo take.

And regarding the bolded that's not what I said, at all. I said it's not good news and that's not the same thing as labeling it bad for a incumbent MIA RB.

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

 but I thought I read that his contract isn't guaranteed unless he makes the team.

All I know is both Spotrac and OTC show his pay as guaranteed and Spotrac is indicating a $1.75 cap hit if he's cut. I can't say what you read is not true, just what I see on those sites.

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Just now, menobrown said:

All I know is both Spotrac and OTC show his pay as guaranteed and Spotrac is indicating a $1.75 cap hit if he's cut. I can't say what you read is not true, just what I see on those sites.

Cool. I think I was reading Twitter speculation last night. What I read was not sourced. I'll try and dig a little deeper and find out. 

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Oh come one with signing Malcom Brown precludes them from making a further addition, that's a horse poo take.

And regarding the bolded that's not what I said, at all. I said it's not good news and that's not the same thing as labeling it bad for a incumbent MIA RB.

Maybe I’m just missing something. 
Most teams carry 3 or 4 RB’s. The Dolphins have Gaskin, Ahmed, and Breida. They just added Brown.

There are just very limited spots to add RB’s. Wasting one of those spots on a mediocre RB can only be good news for Gaskins. 
 

Of course they can sign someone else. But now the chances of them signing another good RB AND drafting a RB early has just decreased.

So please explain how it is not good news.

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Breida was on a one year deal and isn't coming back. I'm not trying to flex, just adding to the understanding. I think you both have valid points. One less Breida, one more Brown.

And Ahmed is not under contract for them as of this moment, I can't imagine. They might not even have Gaskin under contract. Perhaps delving into that would help us understand their situation more. 

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Breida was on a one year deal and isn't coming back. I'm not trying to flex, just adding to the understanding. I think you both have valid points. One less Breida, one more Brown.

And Ahmed is not under contract for them as of this moment, I can't imagine. They might not even have Gaskin under contract. Perhaps delving into that would help us understand their situation more. 

My point is, if signing a mediocre RB like Brown isn’t good news for Gaskins, tell me what signing would be good news.

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27 minutes ago, kutta said:

Why should it not be good news? It’s much better than if Aaron Jones had signed, and it takes up a RB spot with a mediocre RB. If they filled the rest of their depth chart with Malcolm Browns, I’d be buying all the Gaskins I could get.

Gaskin himself is a mediocre RB though.

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Just now, kutta said:

My point is, if signing a mediocre RB like Brown isn’t good news for Gaskins, tell me what signing would be good news.

And that's where I agree with you. The more bodies they clog the roster with, the better for Gaskin.

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But they're drafting an RB, most likely. We won't know until late April-early May, and I wouldn't buy shares of Gaskin for anything if you made me. 

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10 minutes ago, kutta said:

Maybe I’m just missing something. 
Most teams carry 3 or 4 RB’s. The Dolphins have Gaskin, Ahmed, and Breida. They just added Brown.

There are just very limited spots to add RB’s. Wasting one of those spots on a mediocre RB can only be good news for Gaskins. 
 

Of course they can sign someone else. But now the chances of them signing another good RB AND drafting a RB early has just decreased.

So please explain how it is not good news.

Breida is gone and Ahmed is an easy cut.

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6 minutes ago, kutta said:

Maybe I’m just missing something. 
Most teams carry 3 or 4 RB’s. The Dolphins have Gaskin, Ahmed, and Breida. They just added Brown.

There are just very limited spots to add RB’s. Wasting one of those spots on a mediocre RB can only be good news for Gaskins. 
 

Of course they can sign someone else. But now the chances of them signing another good RB AND drafting a RB early has just decreased.

So please explain how it is not good news.

As was pointed out before I could reply Breida is gone, every RB on the team is mediocre but Brown is the highest paid of the group and based on his contract the least expendable, the draft has not yet happened and if they do want to sign another FA RB all the top RB's remain.

I do not take signing Malcolm Brown as good news or bad news, it's a barely relevant depth signing.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, menobrown said:

As was pointed out before I could reply Breida is gone, every RB on the team is mediocre but Brown is the highest paid of the group and based on his contract the least expendable, the draft has not yet happened and if they do want to sign another FA RB all the top RB's remain.

I do not take signing Malcolm Brown as good news or bad news, it's a barely relevant depth signing.

 

 

OK. Thanks. I think we just disagree on the definition of “good news.”

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What incumbent are you talking about? Gaskin? He isn't the incumbent. There is no incumbent. They could have 20 RBs on their roster today and it doesn't mean anything about where they're going to be. And there is no such thing as good news for him unless they don't draft someone. I am operating under the assumption that it is a foregone conclusion they will do so. 

Brown is bad news for Gaskin because he plays basically the same role. I just don't see a world where they think Gaskin should be the guy.

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Breida is gone and Ahmed is an easy cut.

For sure. But if they do want to keep Ahmed, the Brown signing leaves only one open spot at RB. 
 

I’m just missing how filling one of the 2 or 3 open spots at RB with mediocrity is bad (or not good, or whatever you want to call it).

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Just now, kutta said:

For sure. But if they do want to keep Ahmed, the Brown signing leaves only one open spot at RB. 
 

I’m just missing how filling one of the 2 or 3 open spots at RB with mediocrity is bad (or not good, or whatever you want to call it).

There is no such thing as an open spot in March is there? 

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A lot of times teams use these low level FA signings to give themselves options in the draft.  Miami has a lot of high picks and they may well take a RB with one of them but I believe they're thinking that if the right RB doesn't fall to them in the right spot they'll be satisfied going into the season with a committee of Gaskin, Brown and Ahmed.   So, as a Gaskin owner I'm kind of happy with this signing but still not real comfortable.

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12 minutes ago, kutta said:

For sure. But if they do want to keep Ahmed, the Brown signing leaves only one open spot at RB. 
 

I’m just missing how filling one of the 2 or 3 open spots at RB with mediocrity is bad (or not good, or whatever you want to call it).

I actually said it was "good", but I don't think it precludes the Dolphins to add more RBs to the depth chart.

I think what you're missing is that in-season they will only carry 4-5 RBs but up until cutdowns they can add many more than that via FA and/or the draft (and even UDFAs).

It's even possible Gaskin doesn't make the team (unlikely but possible) if the other backs have better camps.

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We've given the Lynn Bowden treatment to Miles Gaskin in this thread. Lots of Dolphin talk.

 Time to get to some action. Where will the receivers land?

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

We've given the Lynn Bowden treatment to Miles Gaskin in this thread. Lots of Dolphin talk.

 Time to get to some action. Where will the receivers land?

I'll answer in the FA thread. ;)

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

I'll answer in the FA thread. ;)

Oh, dude. I didn't even realize what thread I was in and assumed it was that one. Whoops. All this Gaskin value talk has me looking over my shoulder for FAs. :D

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