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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread


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Just now, rockaction said:

Oh, dude. I didn't even realize what thread I was in and assumed it was that one. Whoops. All this Gaskin value talk has me looking over my shoulder for FAs. :D

It's cool just watch out for asking questions in the form of a question around here. Might get sideswiped.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

20 minutes ago, InDitkaWeTrust said:

Value check on Josh Jacobs after Drake was signed?  I know Jacobs tends to be divisive as an FFL starter and with a better than average Drake coming in, his volume will certainly take a hit, but at what point is he a buy low?

His window to sell high has passed.  Buy Low?  Not sure how you can project LVR Offense to support both RB for any RB2 value. 

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Non-ppr...

Value of Chubb vs Lamb? Would one have to offer extra to the other? Or is it just close enough to do an even swap?

I would need  a 2021 low first rounder / high second rounder to part with Chubb.  RB scarcity is real and the talent levels at WR just seem to be getting better and better.  Shoot, I remember back in the day when the 3rd year breakout for WRs was a real thing.  Now, they had best be producing at a high level by year 2 or they get called a bust!

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Just now, InDitkaWeTrust said:

I would need  a 2021 low first rounder / high second rounder to part with Chubb.  RB scarcity is real and the talent levels at WR just seem to be getting better and better.  Shoot, I remember back in the day when the 3rd year breakout for WRs was a real thing.  Now, they had best be producing at a high level by year 2 or they get called a bust!

So asking for Lamb + 1.12 for Chubb isn't out of line? 

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Non-ppr...

Value of Chubb vs Lamb? Would one have to offer extra to the other? Or is it just close enough to do an even swap?

Identical, IMO.  I could favor one or the other depending on the starting requirements of your league, but in a vacuum it's a pick 'em.

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44 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

So asking for Lamb + 1.12 for Chubb isn't out of line? 

FYI - Well, this didn't get it done. He said since their points were roughly equal last year, that he thinks I might have to add something to MY side to get it done. After reminding him that Chubb missed four games with a tweaked knee, I said I could see a straight up deal but definitely not more added on my side.

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26 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

FYI - Well, this didn't get it done. He said since their points were roughly equal last year, that he thinks I might have to add something to MY side to get it done. After reminding him that Chubb missed four games with a tweaked knee, I said I could see a straight up deal but definitely not more added on my side.

Yeah I'd much rather have Lamb > Chubb. 

Lamb is a true stud of the future, long term #1. I do generally prefer RB's to WR's who score similarly, but Chubb is on my DND list because his value has kind of peaked. Especially if this is PPR. 

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Thoughts on Mike Davis as a Falcon? Could still see them drafting a quality RB in round 2 or 3, but they will probably want to prioritize their porous defense, so there's a solid chance Davis could be the starter going into next season. Davis as the #1 guy there could be a sneaky high end RB2, with plenty of goal line opportunity and dump offs. 

Would you offer a late second or early third for him? And conversely, if you're a Davis owner, what would you look to get for him right now?

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42 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

FYI - Well, this didn't get it done. He said since their points were roughly equal last year, that he thinks I might have to add something to MY side to get it done. After reminding him that Chubb missed four games with a tweaked knee, I said I could see a straight up deal but definitely not more added on my side.

I think it's a lost cause if they're citing total points and forgetting to account for the missed games.  

I think they're close in dynasty.  I'd lean towards Chubb.  But if you've got to explain why total points isn't an accurate way to look at things, you're in an uphill battle.

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9 hours ago, InDitkaWeTrust said:

Value check on Josh Jacobs after Drake was signed?  I know Jacobs tends to be divisive as an FFL starter and with a better than average Drake coming in, his volume will certainly take a hit, but at what point is he a buy low?

He was good largely on volume last year, and Drake will cut into that.  Didn't they move/lose some offensive linemen?

I assume most owners will still treat him like an RB1 coming off 1,000 yards and 12 TD's in his 2nd season--but he won't give you RB1 production.

Maybe after a few let down games, owners ease their grip.  But again--you've got to buy low on an RB2--not buy low on an RB1.  

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Team A gives: Mahomes, Hopkins, 2022 1.xx

Team B gives: Josh Allen, Chubb, Lamb

choose your fighter 

ETA: 12-team superflex, 1 PPR, 6 pt PaTd, .1/3 PaYd

No cap dynasty. 

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6 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Team A gives: Mahomes, Hopkins, 2022 1.xx

Team B gives: Josh Allen, Chubb, Lamb

choose your fighter 

 

Mahomes edge over Allen

Hopkins about equal to Lamb in dynasty depending on your timeline

Chubb >> an unknown 1st

Team B all the way

 

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16 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

FYI - Well, this didn't get it done. He said since their points were roughly equal last year, that he thinks I might have to add something to MY side to get it done. After reminding him that Chubb missed four games with a tweaked knee, I said I could see a straight up deal but definitely not more added on my side.

Sounds like you should be trying to get his RB’s by offering him a WR that scores similarly.

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7 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Team A gives: Mahomes, Hopkins, 2022 1.xx

Team B gives: Josh Allen, Chubb, Lamb

choose your fighter 

 

i think if 22 pick was 1.03 or higher you might have an even side. but even then i probably still take the allen side

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10 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Team A gives: Mahomes, Hopkins, 2022 1.xx

Team B gives: Josh Allen, Chubb, Lamb

choose your fighter 

 

My opinion on this comes down to the size of the league.  12 and under, give me the best player (Mahomes).  Larger than that, give me the basket of players but I would be looking to flip Chubb before he turns into a pumpkin in other peoples' eyes.

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6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

My opinion on this comes down to the size of the league.  12 and under, give me the best player (Mahomes).  Larger than that, give me the basket of players but I would be looking to flip Chubb before he turns into a pumpkin in other peoples' eyes.

Probably shoulda specified:

12-team superflex dynasty, PPR, 6 pt PaTd, passing yardage is .1/3 PaYd

 

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4 hours ago, DirtyCashDylan said:

Mahomes edge over Allen

Hopkins about equal to Lamb in dynasty depending on your timeline

Chubb >> an unknown 1st

Team B all the way

 

I am team Mahomes, and in win-now mode. I’m not in a bug hurry to deal my two best players, but I’m also not in a hurry to have my team age (Hopkins at 28) out & I’d love to have Chubb since I’m a little thin at RB. 

This was an opening salvo. Team Allen has Kupp, but at 27 that doesn’t really get me younger. But if it gets me Chubb it’s probably worth doing & trade calc has that as even. 

Appreciate the response. 

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39 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Probably shoulda specified:

12-team superflex dynasty, PPR, 6 pt PaTd, passing yardage is .1/3 PaYd

Superflex can change things dramatically, depending on how your league treats QBs and how balanced your scoring system is.

I personally feel better about the prospects of Mahomes as a QB over the next 5-10 years than I do about Allen, but that's primarily because we've only seen one season of Allen performing at a high level as a passer.  He's always been valuable due to his legs, but he may be coming into his own as a well-rounded QB.

6 PATD is a huge boon to Mahomes. 30 yards per point passing is a wash, but I would give Allen a slight edge here based on the points he gets as a runner.

12 teams makes it a very illiquid market, but I think you could get the deal done without QBs involved at all if you gave up an additional asset.  It will likely be a moderately painful asset.

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As an aside, this offseason may be your last chance to get a "reasonably" priced Lamb.  His owners may believe ADP and Dynasty rankings that show him in the bottom half of the WR1 group.

If Dak played all of 2020 without being injured, Lamb would be ranked right next to Justin Jefferson today, and possibly higher.

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On 3/24/2021 at 9:31 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I am team Mahomes, and in win-now mode. I’m not in a bug hurry to deal my two best players, but I’m also not in a hurry to have my team age (Hopkins at 28) out & I’d love to have Chubb since I’m a little thin at RB. 

This was an opening salvo. Team Allen has Kupp, but at 27 that doesn’t really get me younger. But if it gets me Chubb it’s probably worth doing & trade calc has that as even. 

Appreciate the response. 

Yeah dealing for Hopkins has to be a win now move. In a 12 team ppr league I was just offered Hopkins and 2021 2.07 for D Swift and 2021 1.03. I just took over this orphan team and it doesn't seem like the time to deal for Hopkins. I may counter with my 2.03 instead of 1.03 though and see what happens.

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11 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

Yeah dealing for Hopkins has to be a win now move. In a 12 team ppr league I was just offered Hopkins and 2021 2.07 for D Swift and 2021 1.03. I just took over this orphan team and it doesn't seem like the time to deal for Hopkins. I may counter with my 2.03 instead of 1.03 though and see what happens.

Yeah - and unfortunately several in my league use the Dynasty Dominator trade calculator app, which seems to heavily favor RB & severely underrate WRs, which is kind of stupid.  so I keep getting what I think are lopsided lowball offers of scrubby RB for my “big 3” of Hopkins/Evans/ARob, and when I counter asking for a real RB they complain that I “overvalue” my WRs. 

yeah, ok pal - you came to me asking for my WRs but i overvalue them? More like I know their value. 
:rolleyes:

I’m starting to hate groupthink-inducing dynasty calculators. 

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18 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

Yeah dealing for Hopkins has to be a win now move. In a 12 team ppr league I was just offered Hopkins and 2021 2.07 for D Swift and 2021 1.03. I just took over this orphan team and it doesn't seem like the time to deal for Hopkins. I may counter with my 2.03 instead of 1.03 though and see what happens.

Also, I think this is a fair counter idea. I think Hopkins has more than a couple elite seasons left in him, but Swift & a 1st is too much. 

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On 3/27/2021 at 6:31 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Also, I think this is a fair counter idea. I think Hopkins has more than a couple elite seasons left in him, but Swift & a 1st is too much. 

He ended up selling Hopkins and the 2.07 pick for Chase Edmonds, Deebo Samuel and a 2022 2nd. 

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2 hours ago, northern exposure said:

He ended up selling Hopkins and the 2.07 pick for Chase Edmonds, Deebo Samuel and a 2022 2nd. 

That’s...not a great return. It’ll look a lot better if Chase is the starter / 15-18 touch per week guy. I like Debo a lot & I get that the other pieces are to pad the value, but I’d want more for Hopkins. 

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s...not a great return. It’ll look a lot better if Chase is the starter / 15-18 touch per week guy. I like Debo a lot & I get that the other pieces are to pad the value, but I’d want more for Hopkins. 

Hopkins will be 29 in June.  At what point will there be a drastic fall?  I’d say fantasy owners should be selling by this time next year, or before.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Hopkins will be 29 in June.  At what point will there be a drastic fall?  I’d say fantasy owners should be selling by this time next year, or before.

I'm planning on selling to a win-now team next year, or this if I have some bad injury luck and/or start off in a hole record-wise. 

He certainly hasn't slowed down at all, and he's in a good situation. It's not like he's dramatically out of shape & he has very little injury history in recent memory.  

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I'm planning on selling to a win-now team next year, or this if I have some bad injury luck and/or start off in a hole record-wise. 

He certainly hasn't slowed down at all, and he's in a good situation. It's not like he's dramatically out of shape & he has very little injury history in recent memory.  

What would it take to get him from you? 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What would it take to get him from you? 

Right now? The Debo offer would do it if it was a RB we knew could be counted on as a RB2? Maybe like 2.x + Debo+Carson or something. Even a RoJo type where you know the production is guaranteed. 

The only bone I have to pick with that deal Is that we just don’t know what Edmonds will be, so it’s not really worth going from Hopkins to Debo for a 2nd rounder and a maybe. 

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

What's an older, but still productive, WR like Adam Thielen worth as a one year rental - assuming you're trying to win it all this year or bust? 

Future first? Current second?

I would break my IPhone screen clicking accept if I checked my inbox and someone had offered me a 1st of any year for Thielen. 

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9 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

So, a current 2nd then?

Possibly, but I still wouldn’t do an early one. Too many good prospects in this draft that could still be on the board. Personally, I’m probably not even considering offering anything unless it’s like 2.05 or later. 

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35 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What's an older, but still productive, WR like Adam Thielen worth as a one year rental - assuming you're trying to win it all this year or bust? 

Future first? Current second?

I recently moved him on a team that won the league in 2020 - for a future second and James Washington. It was before free agency when I thought JJSS would surely be moving on. I didn't get much interest when I shopped him around. He's 31 and Cousins is coming off what I think will be his career year. Not sure Thielen sees double digit TDs again.

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What's an older, but still productive, WR like Adam Thielen worth as a one year rental - assuming you're trying to win it all this year or bust? 

Future first? Current second?

If you're trying to move him I think it is best to package him. I moved him and Woods together for a younger WR and Hurts in SF. Who is going for something like a current to late mid 1st. Otherwise Thielen is almost unsellable. I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd and I'd hesitate even then. It's not that I don't like him for 2021 it's that I just don't like to buy old WRs and most don't either. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

If you're trying to move him I think it is best to package him. I moved him and Woods together for a younger WR and Hurts in SF. Who is going for something like a current to late mid 1st. Otherwise Thielen is almost unsellable. I wouldn't pay more than a 3rd and I'd hesitate even then. It's not that I don't like him for 2021 it's that I just don't like to buy old WRs and most don't either. 

I normally wouldn't buy either. But this is a league I'm pretty sure I'm quitting after this year. So, one last run...

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36 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I normally wouldn't buy either. But this is a league I'm pretty sure I'm quitting after this year. So, one last run...

3 first round picks should get it done then, imo.

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PRICE CHECK / Aisle 4 for A.J. Brown Tenn WR

 

Clear young talented WR; clear demonstration improvement each season in a Run First/Second/Third Offense

Turns 24 this summer;  was 2nd round pick in 2019 Draft (#19)

2019   52 rec on 84 targets      >1000 yards      8 TD

2020   70 rec on 106 targets    > 1000 yards   11 TD 

Impact from both WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith departing Tenn for greener pastures (NYJ) or more Red/White/Blue 

 --> More Targets? 

 --> More Double Teams? 

 --> Spend a high Draft pick in WR replacement? 

 --> Add RB and go full Run Oriented like Balt?  

 

Some discussions I have been having:  they view him as the "next" Devante Adams & "not tradeable" (over pay heavily) while others say he is simply Top 12-15 Overall, no different than a RB1 or Top TE and a simple High 1st + good player equivalent (like 1.04 + K Hunt). 

 

All the changes Tenn have experienced and the "wear & tear" factor on Henry (>1150 carries & 76 rec) only make me think AJ Brown is still climbing.  A good WR2 in Tenn will help avoid double team and his value will remain Top 5 Overall, not just Top 3 WR.    He is entering the untradeable phase of his career.    Thoughts/Feedback?  

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Edmonds owner is interested for Curtis Samuel. 

I love Samuel’s new situation, but I’m pretty thin at RB. Thin enough that I’m considering offering Samuel for Edmonds and either 2.06 or 2.08 (he has both)

am I asking too much for Samuel or paying too much for Edmonds? 

I’ve seen word that Edmonds will be starting, but I’m not yet convinced that will actually happen. 

my WRs are M.Evans, Hopkins, ARob, Fuller & Samuel with rags behind them, so it’s not like I’m that deep at WR either.

I guess this depends on how likely people think Edmonds will be to have RB2 value in 2021 & beyond, because I feel like a Samuel will have WR3 value at least. (Meaning a FF roster’s 3rd WR, for those who are very literal) 

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5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Edmonds owner is interested for Curtis Samuel. 

I love Samuel’s new situation, but I’m pretty thin at RB. Thin enough that I’m considering offering Samuel for Edmonds and either 2.06 or 2.08 (he has both)

am I asking too much for Samuel or paying too much for Edmonds? 

I’ve seen word that Edmonds will be starting, but I’m not yet convinced that will actually happen. 

my WRs are M.Evans, Hopkins, ARob, Fuller & Samuel with rags behind them, so it’s not like I’m that deep at WR either.

I guess this depends on how likely people think Edmonds will be to have RB2 value in 2021 & beyond, because I feel like a Samuel will have WR3 value at least. (Meaning a FF roster’s 3rd WR, for those who are very literal) 

The uncertainty of Edmonds playing time is a big gamble.  I don't know if I would move Samuel for him even with the 2nd rounder. 

I really expect ARZ to draft a RB and at least RBBC. 

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1 minute ago, Birdie048 said:

The uncertainty of Edmonds playing time is a big gamble.  I don't know if I would move Samuel for him even with the 2nd rounder. 

I really expect ARZ to draft a RB and at least RBBC. 

HSG knows this, but I do, too. I think it's going to wind up how the draft falls to AZ, but I expect them to add a back unless they're going analytics on us and deciding backs just aren't important or they feel comfortable with Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward in case of injury to Edmonds.

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

HSG knows this, but I do, too. I think it's going to wind up how the draft falls to AZ, but I expect them to add a back unless they're going analytics on us and deciding backs just aren't important or they feel comfortable with Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward in case of injury to Edmonds.

Completely agree ... how the players fall in the draft will dictate so much....  

And to add to the original question, IMO, Yes, this is over pay for Edmonds and the risk is all on HSG side of the deal.  

I think after the draft, Samuel will have more value to this owner.  I suggest waiting ... 

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1 minute ago, Birdie048 said:

Completely agree ... how the players fall in the draft will dictate so much....  

And to add to the original question, IMO, Yes, this is over pay for Edmonds and the risk is all on HSG side of the deal.  

I think after the draft, Samuel will have more value to this owner.  I suggest waiting ... 

Yeah, the guy has really put him in a position of speculating about what AZ is going to do in the draft. I don't like that bet.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, the guy has really put him in a position of speculating about what AZ is going to do in the draft. I don't like that bet.

Not only that, but assuming how AZ will use Edmonds regardless. The talk lit of AZ now is “We think Edmonds can be a feature back.”

Thats now the same thing as saying “Edmonds will be our feature back”. 

Of course after the draft, if AZ doesn’t come out with a RB, his value rises. Sigh. 

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Price check on Brandin Cooks?

I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator (🤔) tells him the deal is slightly in my favor. 

I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.

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