sheerterror
Footballguy
I was intending on trying to use Cooks to move up from 1.9 to 1.5 and I thought that was a little light...
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Rig24
Footballguy
But the calculator!Price check on Brandin Cooks?
I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator () tells him the deal is slightly in my favor.
I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.
He was traded in two tight roster FFPC leagues of mine in last few weeks and returned late 3rd's in both.
IMO they overpaid, I would not have wanted him for free in this format.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It was a nutty deal but someone paid a future 4th for both Cooks and Jones II. FFPC roster moves can be silly like that but then other owners want a 1st for him.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
A lot of talk about calculators lately and I just wanted to give my perspective, since I use them to gauge the market. There are 4 that I like to look at but I have my own tiers of player values that I use when doing deals (and managing my rosters in general). And I assign my *own* values to them, but I base it on a loose mental average of what I see in the different calculators in terms of orders of magnitude differences between certain groups of players (TLDR : tiers) and typically I will agree with most of what I see out there but I will make my own small adjustments to a handful of players that I am significantly higher or lower on than what consensus looks like.
This also helps me identify players with high variance (between calcs or value systems) who might make a good target (from one owner but not necessarily another). I more or less calibrate my values to the ideals of the Hindery system. I'm using my own numbers but it is the same system. Every value system uses tiers and isn't that hard to translate between them all.
An important note about the calculators out there. The database of values that they are pulling from is not necessarily updated as regularly with the news cycles and offseason or inseason events that might affect an individual's value. When you take a snapshot in time of what calculator X says, it might be looking at what those analysts thought 2 or 3 months ago. So keep in mind the idea is to see where the landscape is moving and to understand *relative* values.
This also helps me identify players with high variance (between calcs or value systems) who might make a good target (from one owner but not necessarily another). I more or less calibrate my values to the ideals of the Hindery system. I'm using my own numbers but it is the same system. Every value system uses tiers and isn't that hard to translate between them all.
An important note about the calculators out there. The database of values that they are pulling from is not necessarily updated as regularly with the news cycles and offseason or inseason events that might affect an individual's value. When you take a snapshot in time of what calculator X says, it might be looking at what those analysts thought 2 or 3 months ago. So keep in mind the idea is to see where the landscape is moving and to understand *relative* values.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You can count on one hand the number of times I've referenced what a calculator says during my negotiations. The only times I have are when someone might be flabbergasted by whatever it is I've been offering. If they come back #####ing about it being unbalanced I might point to a couple of them and say it isn't. But it is really just a gauge of market value. And I make moves that buck the trend of the market all the time, so in those cases the calculators can be inhibiting and get in the way.
The real value of anything is what the other guy is willing to accept for it.
The real value of anything is what the other guy is willing to accept for it.
Mark Football
Footballguy
What kind of WR should I be getting for Chase Edmonds right now? PPR
rockaction
Footballguy
Same here. I generally don't ever reference it but for that. Or if I'm having a casual conversation with the guy about value. Then I will, too.barackdhouse said:
kutta
Footballguy
The Cards don’t have a 3rd or 4th round pick this year. They pick at 1.16, and all the talk is either a WR or corner there. They could take a back at 2.17, but I expect defense there. After that they only have a 5th and two 7th round picks.
As much as I’d like to see them take a back early, they have bigger needs IMO. And with no 3rd or 4th this year, it looks like this might not be the year a rookie RB makes a splash in AZ.
Surprising with Hopkins, Kirk, Green and Isabella that the talk would be WR over RB there, when essentially all they have at RB is Chase, and I don’t feel he’s anything close to a feature back. But I would agree that CB is a bigger need than both.
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jabarony
Footballguy
Fitzgerald is still there, as well. No?
Perhaps they won't draft a RB high, but they still may pull in a FA to compete. Edmonds isn't special, so I wouldn't be surprised if they get a James Conner to play the Drake role.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
I have had two trade discussions with this owner and both have ended due to his outrageous "asks" for his players. He tells me I am not valuing his players properly. But, as I suspected,the reverse is true. Based on his player valuations this guy should be running away with the league every season. But, in reality, he is picking in the 3-5 range every season.rockaction said:
Bob's Big Boy
Footballguy
I would not say I acted incredulous(great use of the word though) I was selling you on Cooks consistency sans 2019. Also you make if seem like the trade was about Cooks when the larger piece of the trade on my side was Derrick Henry. The demise of Cooks is greatly over stated. Last year he proved that in 2020....and he will do it again!Buckna said:
kutta
Footballguy
I haven’t heard any local discussion of a RB 1.16, though it would make sense. I think corner is where they are going.
I actually think he will be solid again, just not in 2021, unfortunately it’s also quite possibly not in 2022 either if he stays a Texan after which he’ll be turning 30 in 2023.
Bob's Big Boy
Footballguy
he will had Watson or someone not named Tyrod throwing to him in 2021.....I have never seen a player as successful as Cooks be dismissed so quickly even after he came back and proved the doubters wrong in 2020
Bob's Big Boy
Footballguy
side note....I was just trying to make your team better....and this is the thanks I get! Help me Help you!
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Curious as to what the actual offer was now to see who’s right.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
That said, it is probably bad etiquette.Curious as to what the actual offer was now to see who’s right.
northern exposure
Footballguy
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Price check on CMC in PPR dynasty? (Start 1 QB non-TE prem)
I'm about to go full #######, and likely get told off by the other owner lol, by offering my CMC, 2021 3rd, Coutee & Burton for his Dalvin Cook, A. Gibson, Kittle, 2022 1st & 2021 2nd
I'm about to go full #######, and likely get told off by the other owner lol, by offering my CMC, 2021 3rd, Coutee & Burton for his Dalvin Cook, A. Gibson, Kittle, 2022 1st & 2021 2nd
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Well for starters, you're really asking him to give you all that for just CMC - the other stuff is worthless.
So...he's not worth that much.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
I know, but he wants to move on from Cook & we all value guys differently so you never know what might happen. Last season I sold Gaskin for AJ Brown & Conner for ARob for example
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
He was just moved for 1.8, 1.10, and Pollard in one of my leagues. I think it was a little light, but the rest of the CMC owner's team is in bad shape and I'd rather have an extra #1 this year than next. Don't know if he tried, but I'd have gunned for a 2023 #1 and a current year #2 though.
Bob's Big Boy
Footballguy
maybe, maybe not....the fact is he has played in 4 different systems with 4 different QBs and has been successful each time....so again I say never have I seen a more productive player dismissed so quickly even after proving that his injury season was a fluke.
He recently went for the 1.05 and Dobbins in one of my leagues which is Superflex / PPR.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I wouldn't sell him for that, but my CMC team is a contender. His isn't. I am not sure there is an offer I would consider. But if I'm a rebuilder in a cool market do I sell him for $0.90 on the dollar or hope one develops later? Cause a Bateman/Lawrence combo is probably more valuable come 2023 when this team expects to compete.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Is Dak Prescott safe to trade for?
If so, I'd rather have him than use the pick on Lawrence, for example.
If so, I'd rather have him than use the pick on Lawrence, for example.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Safe? No, but his price will go up once he is. Although the Dak owners in my leagues wouldn't entertain moving him when I inquired this winter.
I think he's safe to buy but the move IMO if you are not a contender is to try and buy Watson on the super cheap.
That trade was more like $0.60 on the dollar. I feel like if he would’ve broadcasted to the rest of the league that CMC was on the block, he would’ve got a better offer than that in minutes. But maybe I’m wrong.
MAC_32
Footballguy
He inquired with me, so I'm guessing he did his due diligence but I don't know for sure. I had 1.12, Cook, Chubb, and Sanders so I didn't make a great trade partner. I floated Sanders and a '22 #1 out there knowing he'd say no because I was trying to use that ammo to get Mahomes.
northern exposure
Footballguy
I'm not so sure 1.08,1.10 and Zeke's handcuff are worth 90% of CMC. If that's the best return I could get now, I would wait until after the draft and then find an owner that was worried about his RB1 due to a rookie being added to the depth chart. I might even wait until the season starts and CMC shows he is healthy to maximize my return for him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Bob's Big Boy
Footballguy
yeah..Saints drafted him with a 1st and NE paid a 1st for him..and the Rams paid a 1st to gt him... Houston paid a 2nd.....everyone one sees the value....he isn't Julio or Hopkins....but he will get you 1100/7 every year and that is as solid as they come!Dr. Octopus said:
Spike
Footballguy
Non-PPR, and assuming I had a good amount of other RBs/WRs, if I had Chubb I would want AT LEAST a mid-2nd in addition to Lamb; if I had Lamb, I would be very happy to do a one-for-one swap.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
That's what I thought too. When I tried to get it done, Lamb guy said I'd need to add to my Chubb side because Lamb is four years younger.
I didn't bother telling him it's closer to three and explaining non-ppr versus ppr and things like positional scarcity because...well it would obviously fall on deaf ears.
floods
Footballguy
Bump for this, as I'm curious as well. I've had a few inquiries and offers, and my counters have been overpays coming my way (eg. 2021 1.02, 1.07, 1.11). It's my view that moving a young player valued where a lot of people have AJ Brown should require an overpay, as there are few 1:1 valued assets for top dynasty players.
RC94
Footballguy
I view him as a good #2 RB and top 20 ranked RB. If you're looking for a WR I would go after a top 20 WR, but don't expect to get a top 10 WR straight up even considering positional scarcity. If you want a draft pick I would target a top 4 pick so you can get Chase or a top 3 RB or Pitts depending on what you need.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I found it very hard to find a buyer for Jacobs in my dynasty leagues. I had guys just flat out say "no interest in him" even if they needed a RB. I ended up pairing him with Zeke along with my 1.12 pick to trade for Akers and McLaurin and 2.4. I was happy to move on from him. But I don't think I could have gotten much for him straight up in trade...
foxco
Footballguy
I have Brown in one league where I am fairly deep at WR and would probably move him for the 1.02/1.07; if I could get another pick that's great. If this was a weak draft class then I'd need more but I love the first round this year.
Spike
Footballguy
What about a deal involving Jacobs (on one side) and Curtis Samuel (on the other side)?
RC94
Footballguy
AJ Brown is a top 5 WR, and top 10 overall player IMO. If I owned him I would not be actively shopping him so if you wanted him you would have to blow me away, which means most likely overpaying. I haven't tried to obtain him recently because I assume he isn't available and I don't like overpaying. There are other good players to go after that you won't necessarily have to overpay for, but if you really want him you'll have to pay more than someone like Hunt or Jacobs plus a top 4 draft pick. Something like Swift or Dobbins and a top 3 pick for him would be where I would start talking if I owned him. If someone offered me Hunt and 1.04 it would be an easy reject and I wouldn't bother with a counter or explanation why I rejected.
