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9 hours ago, northern exposure said:

Price check on Brandin Cooks?

I mentioned interest to the Cooks owner and he came back with Cooks, 2.12 and 3.10 for my 1.3 rookie pick. He states Cooks is a proven 1000 yd WR every season and his trade calculator (🤔) tells him the deal is slightly in my favor. 

I rejected the offer, he can't understand why. 12 tm ppr.

But the calculator! 😂

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10 hours ago, northern exposure said:

Price check on Brandin Cooks?

 

He was traded in two tight roster FFPC leagues of mine in last few weeks and returned late 3rd's in both.

IMO they overpaid, I would not have wanted him for free in this format.

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A lot of talk about calculators lately and I just wanted to give my perspective, since I use them to gauge the market. There are 4 that I like to look at but I have my own tiers of player values that I use when doing deals (and managing my rosters in general). And I assign my *own* values to them, but I base it on a loose mental average of what I see in the different calculators in terms of orders of magnitude differences between certain groups of players (TLDR : tiers) and typically I will agree with most of what I see out there but I will make my own small adjustments to a handful of players that I am significantly higher or lower on than what consensus looks like. 

This also helps me identify players with high variance (between calcs or value systems) who might make a good target (from one owner but not necessarily another). I more or less calibrate my values to the ideals of the Hindery system. I'm using my own numbers but it is the same system. Every value system uses tiers and isn't that hard to translate between them all. 

An important note about the calculators out there. The database of values that they are pulling from is not necessarily updated as regularly with the news cycles and offseason or inseason events that might affect an individual's value. When you take a snapshot in time of what calculator X says, it might be looking at what those analysts thought 2 or 3 months ago. So keep in mind the idea is to see where the landscape is moving and to understand *relative* values.

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You can count on one hand the number of times I've referenced what a calculator says during my negotiations. The only times I have are when someone might be flabbergasted by whatever it is I've been offering. If they come back #####ing about it being unbalanced I might point to a couple of them and say it isn't. But it is really just a gauge of market value. And I make moves that buck the trend of the market all the time, so in those cases the calculators can be inhibiting and get in the way. 

The real value of anything is what the other guy is willing to accept for it.

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11 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

The only times I have are when someone might be flabbergasted by whatever it is I've been offering. If they come back #####ing about it being unbalanced I might point to a couple of them and say it isn't.

Same here. I generally don't ever reference it but for that. Or if I'm having a casual conversation with the guy about value. Then I will, too.

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On 3/31/2021 at 12:08 PM, rockaction said:

HSG knows this, but I do, too. I think it's going to wind up how the draft falls to AZ, but I expect them to add a back unless they're going analytics on us and deciding backs just aren't important or they feel comfortable with Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward in case of injury to Edmonds.

The Cards don’t have a 3rd or 4th round pick this year. They pick at 1.16, and all the talk is either a WR or corner there. They could take a back at 2.17, but I expect defense there. After that they only have a 5th and two 7th round picks.

As much as I’d like to see them take a back early, they have bigger needs IMO. And with no 3rd or 4th this year, it looks like this might not be the year a rookie RB makes a splash in AZ.

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4 hours ago, kutta said:

either a WR or corner there

Surprising with Hopkins, Kirk, Green and Isabella that the talk would be WR over RB there, when essentially all they have at RB is Chase, and I don’t feel he’s anything close to a feature back. But I would agree that CB is a bigger need than both. 

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Surprising with Hopkins, Kirk, Green and Isabella that the talk would be WR over RB there, when essentially all they have at RB is Chase, and I don’t feel he’s anything close to a feature back. But I would agree that CB is a bigger need than both. 

Fitzgerald is still there, as well.  No?  

 

Perhaps they won't draft a RB high, but they still may pull in a FA to compete.  Edmonds isn't special, so I wouldn't be surprised if they get a James Conner to play the Drake role. 

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1 minute ago, jabarony said:

Fitzgerald is still there, as well.  No?  

 

Perhaps they won't draft a RB high, but they still may pull in a FA to compete.  Edmonds isn't special, so I wouldn't be surprised if they get a James Conner to play the Drake role. 

Conner has crossed my mind as well. Maybe even the ghost of Todd Gurley? 

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On 4/1/2021 at 1:36 AM, rockaction said:

Whoa. Don't do that offer. Cooks is a concussion away from never playing again. Not to mention that it's Houston. That might be what his calculator says, but I want to know what calculator he's depending on. And if every calc says that, then the calcs are wrong.

I have had two trade discussions with this owner and both have ended due to his outrageous "asks" for his players. He tells me I am not valuing his players properly. But, as I suspected,the reverse is true. Based on his player valuations this guy should be running away with the league every season. But, in reality, he is picking in the 3-5 range every season.

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On 4/1/2021 at 6:50 AM, Buckna said:

I had owner try to ship him to me a few days ago for a similar unrealistic price. When I rejected and told him not interested, he acted incredulous that I wouldn’t want him. And I quote: “Cooks is only 27 and has been in the top 12 5 out of the last 6 years.” I don’t get points from the past.

Each day it looks more and more likely Watson is either going to be suspended and/or traded, leaving Cooks stuck with Tyrod Taylor throwing to him for a year and no other WR help. The only WR in Tyrod’s tenure as a starter to hit 1k yards was Watkins 2nd year in Buffalo. I actually like Cooks as a player but his situation in 2021 is just beyond awful thru no fault of his own. I’ll be thinking of acquiring mid-season when the Texans are likely 0-8 and abysmal on both sides of the ball. They voided his 2023 year and could easily cut or trade him for 2022. If he stays a Texan, he will almost certainly have a new QB in 2022.

I would not say I acted incredulous(great use of the word though) I was selling you on Cooks consistency sans 2019.  Also you make if seem like the trade was about Cooks when the larger piece of the trade on my side was Derrick Henry.  The demise of Cooks is greatly over stated.  Last year he proved that in 2020....and he will do it again!

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9 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Surprising with Hopkins, Kirk, Green and Isabella that the talk would be WR over RB there, when essentially all they have at RB is Chase, and I don’t feel he’s anything close to a feature back. But I would agree that CB is a bigger need than both. 

I haven’t heard any local discussion of a RB 1.16, though it would make sense. I think corner is where they are going.

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10 minutes ago, Bob's Big Boy said:

I would not say I acted incredulous(great use of the word though) I was selling you on Cooks consistency sans 2019.  Also you make if seem like the trade was about Cooks when the larger piece of the trade on my side was Derrick Henry.  The demise of Cooks is greatly over stated.  Last year he proved that in 2020....and he will do it again!

I actually think he will be solid again, just not in 2021, unfortunately it’s also quite possibly not in 2022 either if he stays a Texan after which he’ll be turning 30 in 2023.

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5 minutes ago, Buckna said:

I actually think he will be solid again, just not in 2021, unfortunately it’s also quite possibly not in 2022 either if he stays a Texan after which he’ll be turning 30 in 2023.

he will had Watson or someone not named Tyrod throwing to him in 2021.....I have never seen a player as successful as Cooks be dismissed so quickly even after he came back and proved the doubters wrong in 2020

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50 minutes ago, Buckna said:

I actually think he will be solid again, just not in 2021, unfortunately it’s also quite possibly not in 2022 either if he stays a Texan after which he’ll be turning 30 in 2023.

side note....I was just trying to make your team better....and this is the thanks I get!  Help me Help you!

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57 minutes ago, Bob's Big Boy said:

he will had Watson or someone not named Tyrod throwing to him in 2021.....I have never seen a player as successful as Cooks be dismissed so quickly even after he came back and proved the doubters wrong in 2020

Sean McVay and Bill Belichick and Sean Payton weren't Cooks fans either.

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Price check on CMC in PPR dynasty? (Start 1 QB non-TE prem)

I'm about to go full #######, and likely get told off by the other owner lol, by offering my CMC, 2021 3rd, Coutee & Burton for his Dalvin Cook, A. Gibson, Kittle, 2022 1st & 2021 2nd

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2 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Price check on CMC in PPR dynasty? (Start 1 QB non-TE prem)

I'm about to go full #######, and likely get told off by the other owner lol, by offering my CMC, 2021 3rd, Coutee & Burton for his Dalvin Cook, A. Gibson, Kittle, 2022 1st & 2021 2nd

That would make no sense to do by the other team.

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1 minute ago, Helaire-ious said:

Price check on CMC in PPR dynasty? (Start 1 QB non-TE prem)

I'm about to go full #######, and likely get told off by the other owner lol, by offering my CMC, 2021 3rd, Coutee & Burton for his Dalvin Cook, A. Gibson, Kittle, 2022 1st & 2021 2nd

Well for starters, you're really asking him to give you all that for just CMC - the other stuff is worthless. 

So...he's not worth that much.

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well for starters, you're really asking him to give you all that for just CMC - the other stuff is worthless. 

So...he's not worth that much.

I know, but he wants to move on from Cook & we all value guys differently so you never know what might happen. Last season I sold Gaskin for AJ Brown & Conner for ARob  for example

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Just now, Helaire-ious said:

I know, but he wants to move on from Cook & we all value guys differently so you never know what might happen. Last season I sold Gaskin for AJ Brown & Conner for ARob  for example

In that case, I suggest you up your dynasty difficulty level.

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2 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Price check on CMC in PPR dynasty? (Start 1 QB non-TE prem)

I'm about to go full #######, and likely get told off by the other owner lol, by offering my CMC, 2021 3rd, Coutee & Burton for his Dalvin Cook, A. Gibson, Kittle, 2022 1st & 2021 2nd

He was just moved for 1.8, 1.10, and Pollard in one of my leagues. I think it was a little light, but the rest of the CMC owner's team is in bad shape and I'd rather have an extra #1 this year than next. Don't know if he tried, but I'd have gunned for a 2023 #1 and a current year #2 though.

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6 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

He was just moved for 1.8, 1.10, and Pollard in one of my leagues. I think it was a little light, but the rest of the CMC owner's team is in bad shape and I'd rather have an extra #1 this year than next. Don't know if he tried, but I'd have gunned for a 2023 #1 and a current year #2 though.

That is hilariously low. 

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21 hours ago, northern exposure said:

Sean McVay and Bill Belichick and Sean Payton weren't Cooks fans either.

maybe,  maybe not....the fact is he has played in 4 different systems with 4 different QBs and has been successful each time....so again I say never have I seen a more productive player dismissed so quickly even after proving that his injury season was a fluke.

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3 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Price check on CMC in PPR dynasty? (Start 1 QB non-TE prem)

I'm about to go full #######, and likely get told off by the other owner lol, by offering my CMC, 2021 3rd, Coutee & Burton for his Dalvin Cook, A. Gibson, Kittle, 2022 1st & 2021 2nd

He recently went for the 1.05 and Dobbins in one of my leagues which is Superflex / PPR.

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

That is hilariously low. 

I wouldn't sell him for that, but my CMC team is a contender. His isn't. I am not sure there is an offer I would consider. But if I'm a rebuilder in a cool market do I sell him for $0.90 on the dollar or hope one develops later? Cause a Bateman/Lawrence combo is probably more valuable come 2023 when this team expects to compete. 

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6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Is Dak Prescott safe to trade for?

If so, I'd rather have him than use the pick on Lawrence, for example.

Safe? No, but his price will go up once he is. Although the Dak owners in my leagues wouldn't entertain moving him when I inquired this winter. 

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10 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Is Dak Prescott safe to trade for?

If so, I'd rather have him than use the pick on Lawrence, for example.

I think he's safe to buy but the move IMO if you are not a contender is to try and buy Watson on the super cheap.

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14 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

market do I sell him for $0.90 on the dollar

That trade was more like $0.60 on the dollar. I feel like if he would’ve broadcasted to the rest of the league that CMC was on the block, he would’ve got a better offer than that in minutes. But maybe I’m wrong. 

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12 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

That trade was more like $0.60 on the dollar. I feel like if he would’ve broadcasted to the rest of the league that CMC was on the block, he would’ve got a better offer than that in minutes. But maybe I’m wrong. 

He inquired with me, so I'm guessing he did his due diligence but I don't know for sure. I had 1.12, Cook, Chubb, and Sanders so I didn't make a great trade partner. I floated Sanders and a '22 #1 out there knowing he'd say no because I was trying to use that ammo to get Mahomes.

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1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

I wouldn't sell him for that, but my CMC team is a contender. His isn't. I am not sure there is an offer I would consider. But if I'm a rebuilder in a cool market do I sell him for $0.90 on the dollar or hope one develops later? Cause a Bateman/Lawrence combo is probably more valuable come 2023 when this team expects to compete. 

I'm not so sure 1.08,1.10 and Zeke's handcuff are worth 90% of CMC. If that's the best return I could get now, I would wait until after the draft and then find an owner that was worried about his RB1 due to a rookie being added to the depth chart. I might even wait until the season starts and CMC shows he is healthy to maximize my return for him.

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2 hours ago, Bob's Big Boy said:

maybe,  maybe not....the fact is he has played in 4 different systems with 4 different QBs and has been successful each time....so again I say never have I seen a more productive player dismissed so quickly even after proving that his injury season was a fluke.

They each paid a first round pick for him as well.

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19 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

They each paid a first round pick for him as well.

yeah..Saints drafted him with a 1st and NE paid a 1st for him..and the Rams paid a 1st to gt him... Houston paid a 2nd.....everyone one sees the value....he isn't Julio or Hopkins....but he will get you 1100/7 every year and that is as solid as they come!

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On 3/23/2021 at 12:36 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

Non-ppr...

Value of Chubb vs Lamb? Would one have to offer extra to the other? Or is it just close enough to do an even swap?

Non-PPR, and assuming I had a good amount of other RBs/WRs, if I had Chubb I would want AT LEAST a mid-2nd in addition to Lamb; if I had Lamb, I would be very happy to do a one-for-one swap.

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6 minutes ago, Spike said:

Non-PPR, and assuming I had a good amount of other RBs/WRs, if I had Chubb I would want AT LEAST a mid-2nd in addition to Lamb; if I had Lamb, I would be very happy to do a one-for-one swap.

That's what I thought too. When I tried to get it done, Lamb guy said I'd need to add to my Chubb side because Lamb is four years younger. 

I didn't bother telling him it's closer to three and explaining non-ppr versus ppr and things like positional scarcity because...well it would obviously fall on deaf ears.

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What is Josh Jacobs worth these days in PPR?  I'm loaded at RB in the league in which I have him.  Unfortunately, the league is fairly poor in its quantity of teams who make trades.

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On 3/31/2021 at 1:47 PM, Birdie048 said:

PRICE CHECK / Aisle 4 for A.J. Brown Tenn WR

 

Clear young talented WR; clear demonstration improvement each season in a Run First/Second/Third Offense

Turns 24 this summer;  was 2nd round pick in 2019 Draft (#19)

2019   52 rec on 84 targets      >1000 yards      8 TD

2020   70 rec on 106 targets    > 1000 yards   11 TD 

Impact from both WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith departing Tenn for greener pastures (NYJ) or more Red/White/Blue 

 --> More Targets? 

 --> More Double Teams? 

 --> Spend a high Draft pick in WR replacement? 

 --> Add RB and go full Run Oriented like Balt?  

 

Some discussions I have been having:  they view him as the "next" Devante Adams & "not tradeable" (over pay heavily) while others say he is simply Top 12-15 Overall, no different than a RB1 or Top TE and a simple High 1st + good player equivalent (like 1.04 + K Hunt). 

 

All the changes Tenn have experienced and the "wear & tear" factor on Henry (>1150 carries & 76 rec) only make me think AJ Brown is still climbing.  A good WR2 in Tenn will help avoid double team and his value will remain Top 5 Overall, not just Top 3 WR.    He is entering the untradeable phase of his career.    Thoughts/Feedback?  

Bump for this, as I'm curious as well. I've had a few inquiries and offers, and my counters have been overpays coming my way (eg. 2021 1.02, 1.07, 1.11). It's my view that moving a young player valued where a lot of people have AJ Brown should require an overpay, as there are few 1:1 valued assets for top dynasty players.

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1 hour ago, Spike said:

What is Josh Jacobs worth these days in PPR?  I'm loaded at RB in the league in which I have him.  Unfortunately, the league is fairly poor in its quantity of teams who make trades.

I view him as a good #2 RB and top 20 ranked RB.  If you're looking for a WR I would go after a top 20 WR, but don't expect to get a top 10 WR straight up even considering positional scarcity.  If you want a draft pick I would target a top 4 pick so you can get Chase or a top 3 RB or Pitts depending on what you need.

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5 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I view him as a good #2 RB and top 20 ranked RB.  If you're looking for a WR I would go after a top 20 WR, but don't expect to get a top 10 WR straight up even considering positional scarcity.  If you want a draft pick I would target a top 4 pick so you can get Chase or a top 3 RB or Pitts depending on what you need.

I found it very hard to find a buyer for Jacobs in my dynasty leagues. I had guys just flat out say "no interest in him" even if they needed a RB. I ended up pairing him with Zeke along with my 1.12 pick to trade for Akers and McLaurin and 2.4. I was happy to move on from him. But I don't think I could have gotten much for him straight up in trade...

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22 minutes ago, floods said:

Bump for this, as I'm curious as well. I've had a few inquiries and offers, and my counters have been overpays coming my way (eg. 2021 1.02, 1.07, 1.11). It's my view that moving a young player valued where a lot of people have AJ Brown should require an overpay, as there are few 1:1 valued assets for top dynasty players.

I have Brown in one league where I am fairly deep at WR and would probably move him for the 1.02/1.07; if I could get another pick that's great. If this was a weak draft class then I'd need more but I love the first round this year. 

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7 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I found it very hard to find a buyer for Jacobs in my dynasty leagues. I had guys just flat out say "no interest in him" even if they needed a RB. I ended up pairing him with Zeke along with my 1.12 pick to trade for Akers and McLaurin and 2.4. I was happy to move on from him. But I don't think I could have gotten much for him straight up in trade...

What about a deal involving Jacobs (on one side) and Curtis Samuel (on the other side)?

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AJ Brown is a top 5 WR, and top 10 overall player IMO.  If I owned him I would not be actively shopping him so if you wanted him you would have to blow me away, which means most likely overpaying.  I haven't tried to obtain him recently because I assume he isn't available and I don't like overpaying.  There are other good players to go after that you won't necessarily have to overpay for, but if you really want him you'll have to pay more than someone like Hunt or Jacobs plus a top 4 draft pick.  Something like Swift or Dobbins and a top 3 pick for him would be where I would start talking if I owned him.  If someone offered me Hunt and 1.04 it would be an easy reject and I wouldn't bother with a counter or explanation why I rejected.

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9 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I found it very hard to find a buyer for Jacobs in my dynasty leagues. I had guys just flat out say "no interest in him" even if they needed a RB. I ended up pairing him with Zeke along with my 1.12 pick to trade for Akers and McLaurin and 2.4. I was happy to move on from him. But I don't think I could have gotten much for him straight up in trade...

I like that deal for you.

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