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On 3/31/2021 at 1:47 PM, Birdie048 said:

PRICE CHECK / Aisle 4 for A.J. Brown Tenn WR

 

Clear young talented WR; clear demonstration improvement each season in a Run First/Second/Third Offense

Turns 24 this summer;  was 2nd round pick in 2019 Draft (#19)

2019   52 rec on 84 targets      >1000 yards      8 TD

2020   70 rec on 106 targets    > 1000 yards   11 TD 

Impact from both WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith departing Tenn for greener pastures (NYJ) or more Red/White/Blue 

 --> More Targets? 

 --> More Double Teams? 

 --> Spend a high Draft pick in WR replacement? 

 --> Add RB and go full Run Oriented like Balt?  

 

Some discussions I have been having:  they view him as the "next" Devante Adams & "not tradeable" (over pay heavily) while others say he is simply Top 12-15 Overall, no different than a RB1 or Top TE and a simple High 1st + good player equivalent (like 1.04 + K Hunt). 

 

All the changes Tenn have experienced and the "wear & tear" factor on Henry (>1150 carries & 76 rec) only make me think AJ Brown is still climbing.  A good WR2 in Tenn will help avoid double team and his value will remain Top 5 Overall, not just Top 3 WR.    He is entering the untradeable phase of his career.    Thoughts/Feedback?  

Bump for this, as I'm curious as well. I've had a few inquiries and offers, and my counters have been overpays coming my way (eg. 2021 1.02, 1.07, 1.11). It's my view that moving a young player valued where a lot of people have AJ Brown should require an overpay, as there are few 1:1 valued assets for top dynasty players.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

1 hour ago, Spike said:

What is Josh Jacobs worth these days in PPR?  I'm loaded at RB in the league in which I have him.  Unfortunately, the league is fairly poor in its quantity of teams who make trades.

I view him as a good #2 RB and top 20 ranked RB.  If you're looking for a WR I would go after a top 20 WR, but don't expect to get a top 10 WR straight up even considering positional scarcity.  If you want a draft pick I would target a top 4 pick so you can get Chase or a top 3 RB or Pitts depending on what you need.

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5 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I view him as a good #2 RB and top 20 ranked RB.  If you're looking for a WR I would go after a top 20 WR, but don't expect to get a top 10 WR straight up even considering positional scarcity.  If you want a draft pick I would target a top 4 pick so you can get Chase or a top 3 RB or Pitts depending on what you need.

I found it very hard to find a buyer for Jacobs in my dynasty leagues. I had guys just flat out say "no interest in him" even if they needed a RB. I ended up pairing him with Zeke along with my 1.12 pick to trade for Akers and McLaurin and 2.4. I was happy to move on from him. But I don't think I could have gotten much for him straight up in trade...

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22 minutes ago, floods said:

Bump for this, as I'm curious as well. I've had a few inquiries and offers, and my counters have been overpays coming my way (eg. 2021 1.02, 1.07, 1.11). It's my view that moving a young player valued where a lot of people have AJ Brown should require an overpay, as there are few 1:1 valued assets for top dynasty players.

I have Brown in one league where I am fairly deep at WR and would probably move him for the 1.02/1.07; if I could get another pick that's great. If this was a weak draft class then I'd need more but I love the first round this year. 

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7 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I found it very hard to find a buyer for Jacobs in my dynasty leagues. I had guys just flat out say "no interest in him" even if they needed a RB. I ended up pairing him with Zeke along with my 1.12 pick to trade for Akers and McLaurin and 2.4. I was happy to move on from him. But I don't think I could have gotten much for him straight up in trade...

What about a deal involving Jacobs (on one side) and Curtis Samuel (on the other side)?

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AJ Brown is a top 5 WR, and top 10 overall player IMO.  If I owned him I would not be actively shopping him so if you wanted him you would have to blow me away, which means most likely overpaying.  I haven't tried to obtain him recently because I assume he isn't available and I don't like overpaying.  There are other good players to go after that you won't necessarily have to overpay for, but if you really want him you'll have to pay more than someone like Hunt or Jacobs plus a top 4 draft pick.  Something like Swift or Dobbins and a top 3 pick for him would be where I would start talking if I owned him.  If someone offered me Hunt and 1.04 it would be an easy reject and I wouldn't bother with a counter or explanation why I rejected.

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9 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I found it very hard to find a buyer for Jacobs in my dynasty leagues. I had guys just flat out say "no interest in him" even if they needed a RB. I ended up pairing him with Zeke along with my 1.12 pick to trade for Akers and McLaurin and 2.4. I was happy to move on from him. But I don't think I could have gotten much for him straight up in trade...

I like that deal for you.

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9 minutes ago, RC94 said:

AJ Brown is a top 5 WR, and top 10 overall player IMO.  If I owned him I would not be actively shopping him so if you wanted him you would have to blow me away, which means most likely overpaying.  I haven't tried to obtain him recently because I assume he isn't available and I don't like overpaying.  There are other good players to go after that you won't necessarily have to overpay for, but if you really want him you'll have to pay more than someone like Hunt or Jacobs plus a top 4 draft pick.  Something like Swift or Dobbins and a top 3 pick for him would be where I would start talking if I owned him.  If someone offered me Hunt and 1.04 it would be an easy reject and I wouldn't bother with a counter or explanation why 

Is there any concern about the offense AJ plays in? He doesn't see a ton of targets for a top 5 guy. That could change with Davis/Smith gone I guess.

I have him behind these guys right now:

Adams/Jefferson/Hill/Hopkins/Ridley/Metcalf/Diggs

I also like Lamb over him personally, though very close.

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28 minutes ago, foxco said:

Is there any concern about the offense AJ plays in? He doesn't see a ton of targets for a top 5 guy. That could change with Davis/Smith gone I guess.

I have him behind these guys right now:

Adams/Jefferson/Hill/Hopkins/Ridley/Metcalf/Diggs

I also like Lamb over him personally, though very close.

I was thinking he could have problems from the perspective that Davis and Smith are gone...along with Arthur Smith.  Just doesn't seem to be much for a defense to have to take away from the receiving perspective other than Brown.  I would think that might make 2021 a less productive year as opposed to more productive.

FWIW - I'm a big AJ Brown fan.

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6 minutes ago, Spike said:

I was thinking he could have problems from the perspective that Davis and Smith are gone...along with Arthur Smith.  Just doesn't seem to be much for a defense to have to take away from the receiving perspective other than Brown.  I would think that might make 2021 a less productive year as opposed to more productive.

FWIW - I'm a big AJ Brown fan.

TEN signed Reynolds, who is underrated IMO, and I expect them to add more pass catchers in the draft so I don't think losing Davis and Smith will make much of a difference.  Changing the OC is the bigger concern, but Brown's talent transcends that, especially since they still have mostly the same coaching staff otherwise.

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7 hours ago, Spike said:

What is Josh Jacobs worth these days in PPR?  I'm loaded at RB in the league in which I have him.  Unfortunately, the league is fairly poor in its quantity of teams who make trades.

Jacobs' value has been solely based on volume. Now that Drake is in town, his volume as well as his value drop like a rock. Low end rb1 to rb2/rb3. I'm not touching him right now. 

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I'm not taking the deal, but maybe this would help other CMC owners. I was offered Fant, JT & Thielen in dynasty PPR (Start 1 QB) for my CMC & Aiyuk. That is essntially JT & Fant for CMC, I think he is worth more

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13 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I'm not taking the deal, but maybe this would help other CMC owners. I was offered Fant, JT & Thielen in dynasty PPR (Start 1 QB) for my CMC & Aiyuk. That is essntially JT & Fant for CMC, I think he is worth more

I think you are right on CMC's value but man you need to appreciate what you got in Aiyuk more then you seem to, his value blows away Thielen.

 

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

I think you are right on CMC's value but man you need to appreciate what you got in Aiyuk more then you seem to, his value blows away Thielen.

 

Exactly which is why I'll keep him. I am the CMC & Aiyuk owner

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Just now, Helaire-ious said:

Exactly which is why I'll keep him. I am the CMC & Aiyuk owner

He's saying that the way you broke it down, with JT & Fant = CMC, leaves Aiyuk = Thielen. 

Aiyuk is worth much more than Thielen. 

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

He's saying that the way you broke it down, with JT & Fant = CMC, leaves Aiyuk = Thielen. 

Aiyuk is worth much more than Thielen. 

What I meant what that is essentially the trade to me & not enough hence me turning it down. So clearly I value Aiyuk lol

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8 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

What I meant what that is essentially the trade to me & not enough hence me turning it down. So clearly I value Aiyuk lol

Why do you hate Aiyuk???

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Has anyone been able to move D. Henry lately?  I haven't been able to generate any interest in him.  Wondering if I'm overvaluing him trying to get someone equivalent to late RB1 PPR startup (late 2nd/early 3rd) value?

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On 4/5/2021 at 7:16 PM, InDitkaWeTrust said:

Jacobs' value has been solely based on volume. Now that Drake is in town, his volume as well as his value drop like a rock. Low end rb1 to rb2/rb3. I'm not touching him right now. 

Jacobs played about 60% of the snaps per game and had about 60% of the carries.  It is fair to say that Drake probably eliminates any hope of Jacobs getting more catches but the rushing volume narrative is overblown. He will get 60% again in 21. 

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12 minutes ago, Blick said:

Has anyone been able to move D. Henry lately?  I haven't been able to generate any interest in him.  Wondering if I'm overvaluing him trying to get someone equivalent to late RB1 PPR startup (late 2nd/early 3rd) value?

Henry is obviously one of the best RBs, even for fantasy in 2021, but he is 27 and in dynasty leagues that matters.  If you're a rebuilding team, or a middle of the league team, you don't trade for Henry.  So, that leaves you with contending teams only.  Even those teams won't give up the farm because they are top teams for a reason, but you can get late 1sts and future 1sts for Henry and / or some young WR talent.  I don't see contending teams trading young RB guys like Dobbins and Akers, because if they are an aging team otherwise, they don't want to lose those assets.  They know the floor could cave in at any time, but not likely in 2021.

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43 minutes ago, Blick said:

Has anyone been able to move D. Henry lately?  I haven't been able to generate any interest in him.  Wondering if I'm overvaluing him trying to get someone equivalent to late RB1 PPR startup (late 2nd/early 3rd) value?

Check out the trades thread - @frae just moved Henry + Deebo Samuel + Mo Allie Cox for 1.02.  With aging players coming off great years it is difficult to get high value but he probably did that here if you are looking to get off that wagon before the wheels fall off.  

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3 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

Check out the trades thread - @frae just moved Henry + Deebo Samuel + Mo Allie Cox for 1.02.  With aging players coming off great years it is difficult to get high value but he probably did that here if you are looking to get off that wagon before the wheels fall off.  

For a contending team, like mine, I think I'd rather just ride into the sunset with him.

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2 minutes ago, Blick said:

For a contending team, like mine, I think I'd rather just ride into the sunset with him.

Certainly a depth dependent trade for a contender.  Just draft 3 RB's and hope you hit, then makes moving him mid season sting less.  😂

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Henry is obviously one of the best RBs, even for fantasy in 2021, but he is 27 and in dynasty leagues that matters.  If you're a rebuilding team, or a middle of the league team, you don't trade for Henry.  So, that leaves you with contending teams only.  Even those teams won't give up the farm because they are top teams for a reason, but you can get late 1sts and future 1sts for Henry and / or some young WR talent.  I don't see contending teams trading young RB guys like Dobbins and Akers, because if they are an aging team otherwise, they don't want to lose those assets.  They know the floor could cave in at any time, but not likely in 2021.

I pushed in my chips to go all-in this season.  Traded Dobbins and my future 1st (16-team league) for Henry. 

I've been slowly divesting of Dobbins across my leagues, resigning Edwards and the play style of Lamar Jackson just makes me think he's going to be jock blocked for at least two seasons.

Edited by tangfoot
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1 hour ago, Blick said:

For a contending team, like mine, I think I'd rather just ride into the sunset with him.

If you're contending, why are you looking to move Henry. I am also contending and Henry is a big part of the reason why. I still think he has a few good years left.

Henry just turned 27 a few months ago. Cook, Zeke, and Kamara are all turning 26 soon. So he's got 1.5 years on all those guys basically. And I think his game will age better than those guys because he doesn't rely as much on quickness - more on power and some speed.

I guess my point is that people act like Henry is washed up when, IMO, he's still got a few good seasons left. Ride into the sunset.

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I pushed in my chips to go all-in this season.  Traded Dobbins and my future 1st (16-team league) for Henry. 

I've been slowly divesting of Dobbins across my leagues, resigning Edwards and the play style of Lamar Jackson just makes me think he's going to be jock blocked for at least two seasons.

I love Dobbins, but I've come to the conclusion that you're correct. Mike Clay still projects him for over one thousand yards and double digit TDs next year (which sounds impressive, but falls a bit short of studly) so one guy sees at least some of the brightness of a silver lining rather than the muddled and grey world that we're seeing.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

If you're contending, why are you looking to move Henry. I am also contending and Henry is a big part of the reason why. I still think he has a few good years left.

Henry just turned 27 a few months ago. Cook, Zeke, and Kamara are all turning 26 soon. So he's got 1.5 years on all those guys basically. And I think his game will age better than those guys because he doesn't rely as much on quickness - more on power and some speed.

I guess my point is that people act like Henry is washed up when, IMO, he's still got a few good seasons left. Ride into the sunset.

Swapping a 27 yo Henry on a Titans offense that may go the wrong way for a 22 yo Cam Akers on a Rams offense trending the other way is an appealing thought.

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16 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Swapping a 27 yo Henry on a Titans offense that may go the wrong way for a 22 yo Cam Akers on a Rams offense trending the other way is an appealing thought.

Well I could get behind that for sure. I'm not sure the Akers owner would do that though. I own both, and I value Akers over Henry right now.

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What do people think Fournette is worth in a 12 team PPR league in terms of a 2021 pick? I'm a little surprised that he is valued slightly higher than RoJo in Hindery's trade value chart but I guess they're basically even.

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1 hour ago, roarlions said:

What do people think Fournette is worth in a 12 team PPR league in terms of a 2021 pick? I'm a little surprised that he is valued slightly higher than RoJo in Hindery's trade value chart but I guess they're basically even.

No more than a mid 2nd. Hard to envision him getting a long term deal where he's assured starting RB duties anymore, despite being relatively young.

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2 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

In FFPC startups over the last month plus, Akers is going RB6 at 1.06 and Henry at RB9 at 1.12. Akers hasn't gone later than 2.01 and Henry has gone as late as 3.08.

That's 12 startups FWIW.

In FFPC SF it is RB6 vs RB11 in favor of Akers. 12 more startups there. They're close but Akers is definitely going earlier in FFPC. 

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31 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

In FFPC startups over the last month plus, Akers is going RB6 at 1.06 and Henry at RB9 at 1.12. Akers hasn't gone later than 2.01 and Henry has gone as late as 3.08.

That's 12 startups FWIW.

In FFPC SF it is RB6 vs RB11 in favor of Akers. 12 more startups there. They're close but Akers is definitely going earlier in FFPC. 

I don't think they're close, which is why I floated the idea out there. 

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22 hours ago, Blick said:

Has anyone been able to move D. Henry lately?  I haven't been able to generate any interest in him.  Wondering if I'm overvaluing him trying to get someone equivalent to late RB1 PPR startup (late 2nd/early 3rd) value?

Recently declined an offer of Henry + Higbee for Ekeler + Kelce + Crowder in PPR.

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On 4/8/2021 at 10:19 AM, Blick said:

Has anyone been able to move D. Henry lately?  I haven't been able to generate any interest in him.  Wondering if I'm overvaluing him trying to get someone equivalent to late RB1 PPR startup (late 2nd/early 3rd) value?

Saw a trade of 2021 1st+Tannehill for 2021 2nd+Henry. Seemed really light. Team getting Henry was 5-8 but should be a playoff team if its RB stay healthy.

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On 4/8/2021 at 4:10 PM, dewaser said:

No more than a mid 2nd. Hard to envision him getting a long term deal where he's assured starting RB duties anymore, despite being relatively young.

I'd have to be really thin at RB and a contender at the same time to give any 2nd for Fournette. I'd say he's a 3rd rounder 

Edited by ffmail4me
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On 4/8/2021 at 10:19 AM, Blick said:

Has anyone been able to move D. Henry lately?   

Late last year I traded Henry for Taylor and JuJu, right before Taylor went on his tear. I was lucky. I then moved JuJu and my 1.10 for the 1.5 pick. So moving Henry paid big dividends for my team that wasn't a legit contender last year. Now I'm in that ball park ;)

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Price check on Golladay and Chark? Looking to try to consolidate a bit and get younger. Seems like superflex 1.04 (first non QB) is too much to ask for but a mid late 1 (1.09 or so) isn’t enough. 

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22 minutes ago, Duckboy said:

Price check on Golladay and Chark? Looking to try to consolidate a bit and get younger. Seems like superflex 1.04 (first non QB) is too much to ask for but a mid late 1 (1.09 or so) isn’t enough. 

If it helps I traded Golladay, Irv Smith, and Gabriel Davis for Kittle.

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

I'd have to be really thin at RB and a contender at the same time to give any 2nd for Fournette. I'd say he's a 3rd rounder 

This is where I ended up, but I doubt the Lenny owner would be receptive to such an offer and I don't blame them. 

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On 4/8/2021 at 10:19 AM, Blick said:

Has anyone been able to move D. Henry lately?  I haven't been able to generate any interest in him.  Wondering if I'm overvaluing him trying to get someone equivalent to late RB1 PPR startup (late 2nd/early 3rd) value?

Just moved Henry for 2021 1.04 and 1.08 (1QB, PPR). I have the 1.12 also.

I feel like that's about as good as it gets for him right now. The other guys in my league either weren't interested at all or were total lowballing. Maybe you could get more at the beginning of the season if you catch a contender in need. I won last season with him leading the way and I'm a contender this year but my team is getting a bit older so I like the option to get younger with multiple picks in a good class. That said, I may have just sold one of my best players when my team had one more shot at a title before needing to rebuild.

I agree with people in this thread who think he has 2 more years of mid-RB1 in him; he's a stud with a ridiculous health regimen and work ethic... if anyone can beat the averages when it comes to age/carries he can.

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4 minutes ago, Adso said:

Just moved Henry for 2021 1.04 and 1.08 (1QB, PPR). I have the 1.12 also.

I feel like that's about as good as it gets for him right now. The other guys in my league either weren't interested at all or were total lowballing. Maybe you could get more at the beginning of the season if you catch a contender in need. I won last season with him leading the way and I'm a contender this year but my team is getting a bit older so I like the option to get younger with multiple picks in a good class. That said, I may have just sold one of my best players when my team had one more shot at a title before needing to rebuild.

I agree with people in this thread who think he has 2 more years of mid-RB1 in him; he's a stud with a ridiculous health regimen and work ethic... if anyone can beat the averages when it comes to age/carries he can.

Even though I agree that he has a couple good years left, I rather get younger if I can. I think you did very well here.

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11 minutes ago, Adso said:

Just moved Henry for 2021 1.04 and 1.08 (1QB, PPR). I have the 1.12 also.

I feel like that's about as good as it gets for him right now. The other guys in my league either weren't interested at all or were total lowballing. Maybe you could get more at the beginning of the season if you catch a contender in need. I won last season with him leading the way and I'm a contender this year but my team is getting a bit older so I like the option to get younger with multiple picks in a good class. That said, I may have just sold one of my best players when my team had one more shot at a title before needing to rebuild.

I agree with people in this thread who think he has 2 more years of mid-RB1 in him; he's a stud with a ridiculous health regimen and work ethic... if anyone can beat the averages when it comes to age/carries he can.

I drafted Henry and he’s still on my team and I’m a big fan and I’m a contender. But I would also accept that offer.

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4 hours ago, Adso said:

Just moved Henry for 2021 1.04 and 1.08 (1QB, PPR). I have the 1.12 also.

I feel like that's about as good as it gets for him right now. The other guys in my league either weren't interested at all or were total lowballing. Maybe you could get more at the beginning of the season if you catch a contender in need. I won last season with him leading the way and I'm a contender this year but my team is getting a bit older so I like the option to get younger with multiple picks in a good class. That said, I may have just sold one of my best players when my team had one more shot at a title before needing to rebuild.

I agree with people in this thread who think he has 2 more years of mid-RB1 in him; he's a stud with a ridiculous health regimen and work ethic... if anyone can beat the averages when it comes to age/carries he can.

My feeling is that if you have a chance to contend you don't trade away a key piece. 

That being said, 1.04 and 1.08 is decent value depending on how deep this draft is. I don't know that yet.

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Someone help me out. Why on earth would Irv Smith be valued more than Evan Engram other than an age narrative? I'm not totally missing something here am I?

Woke up today with an Irv Smith for my Engram and 1.12 offer and even though it's TE prem, I can't imagine a scenario that would even put the 2 in the same stratosphere in terms of value. 

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Just now, Zyphros said:

Someone help me out. Why on earth would Irv Smith be valued more than Evan Engram other than an age narrative? I'm not totally missing something here am I?

Woke up today with an Irv Smith for my Engram and 1.12 offer and even though it's TE prem, I can't imagine a scenario that would even put the 2 in the same stratosphere in terms of value. 

Well, I can’t defend that offer. That said, Smith doesn’t have Kyle rudolph siphoning targets/red zone looks, and is probably trending up, while engram is going to have more competition for targets with golladay and a healthy Barkley, so I don’t think they’re thaaaaat far off.

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5 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Someone help me out. Why on earth would Irv Smith be valued more than Evan Engram other than an age narrative? I'm not totally missing something here am I?

Woke up today with an Irv Smith for my Engram and 1.12 offer and even though it's TE prem, I can't imagine a scenario that would even put the 2 in the same stratosphere in terms of value. 

They're both about the same - mediocre.

For some reason people seem to think the Vikings use their TEs on a worthwhile basis. So now that Rudolph is out of town, Smith is a hot prospect. 

Don't buy it. Keep your pick.

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2 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Well, I can’t defend that offer. That said, Smith doesn’t have Kyle rudolph siphoning targets/red zone looks, and is probably trending up, while engram is going to have more competition for targets with golladay and a healthy Barkley, so I don’t think they’re thaaaaat far off.

People really think Rudolph is a threat? 

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