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8 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Someone help me out. Why on earth would Irv Smith be valued more than Evan Engram other than an age narrative? I'm not totally missing something here am I?

Woke up today with an Irv Smith for my Engram and 1.12 offer and even though it's TE prem, I can't imagine a scenario that would even put the 2 in the same stratosphere in terms of value. 

I would absolutely rather have Smith but that offer is too much.

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Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:   RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and e

That is interesting. As a Gordon owner here and there, I think I'd have jumped on that offer in any league I have him, without even looking at my own roster or that of the owner sending me the pick.

At first glance I agree, but then when I think about it I almost think the opposite.  If anything it's ridiculous that RBs are so ridiculously overvalued in 1qb leagues.  I love RBs having lots of val

1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

They're both about the same - mediocre.

For some reason people seem to think the Vikings use their TEs on a worthwhile basis. So now that Rudolph is out of town, Smith is a hot prospect. 

Don't buy it. Keep your pick.

I absolutely wasn't selling, and I was rather insulted by the offer. Engram is a prime buy low, Irv is a clear sell high to me. Obviously my "trade partner" doesn't know that, but still. I couldn't imagine people thinking Irv is that high. 

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1 minute ago, Zyphros said:

I absolutely wasn't selling, and I was rather insulted by the offer. Engram is a prime buy low, Irv is a clear sell high to me. Obviously my "trade partner" doesn't know that, but still. I couldn't imagine people thinking Irv is that high. 

I think Engram is a sell low, but Smith isn't a buy...but the result here is the same.

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1 minute ago, Zyphros said:

I absolutely wasn't selling, and I was rather insulted by the offer. Engram is a prime buy low, Irv is a clear sell high to me. Obviously my "trade partner" doesn't know that, but still. I couldn't imagine people thinking Irv is that high. 

I believe he's a prime I made a mistake in drafting him type of guy.

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Hmmm I'm the outlier here I guess. I don't see the appeal in Irv Smith other than possibly volume, and Daniel Jones loves his TE, the other pieces be damned. 

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12 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Hmmm I'm the outlier here I guess. I don't see the appeal in Irv Smith other than possibly volume, and Daniel Jones loves his TE, the other pieces be damned. 

Jones has thrown 4 TDs to Engram in the last two years and Engram has a total of 13 TDs in his entire career and only 7 in the last 3 years.  Plus he will be 27 when the season starts.  At what point do we say he is what he is?  Now I don't know what Irv Smith is going to turn into, but I pretty much know what Engram is.

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7 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I absolutely wasn't selling, and I was rather insulted by the offer. Engram is a prime buy low, Irv is a clear sell high to me. Obviously my "trade partner" doesn't know that, but still. I couldn't imagine people thinking Irv is that high. 

I guess it depends on what you thought of smith coming in. Rudolph started 13 games and had 37 targets; smith started 7 and had 43. As the primary TE this year he could flirt with double digit tds- he had 5 in 37 catches last season. 
Engram got over 100 targets last year and failed to finish as a top 12 te. Granted, he may get more red zone opportunities if the NYG move the ball more effectively, but now there is also another te that might eat into his targets as well, even if it’s only a handful. Engram had 6 games with 9 targets or more, I doubt that happens much this year. 

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Jones has thrown 4 TDs to Engram in two years and Engram has a total of 13 TDs in his career and only 4 in the last 3 years.  Plus he will be 27 when the season starts.  At what point do we say he is what he is?  Now I don't know what Irv Smith is going to turn into, but I pretty much know what Engram is.

Engram has also got 115 targets his rookie year, averages over 110 targets in full seasons (89 average for 4 total seasons). Health has been his issue, and so has an overall bad Giants team, but there's hope glimmering through. I think people are forgetting TE takes a while to learn, and Engram is entering his prime years now.

I'd much rather take a shot on Engram who has the way better profile, better size, has developed into a blocker, plays all downs, and is used by his QB a lot. 

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Engram has also got 115 targets his rookie year, averages over 110 targets in full seasons (89 average for 4 total seasons). Health has been his issue, and so has an overall bad Giants team, but there's hope glimmering through. I think people are forgetting TE takes a while to learn, and Engram is entering his prime years now.

I'd much rather take a shot on Engram who has the way better profile, better size, has developed into a blocker, plays all downs, and is used by his QB a lot. 

Well, I don't think I could feel comfortable with Engram as my TE1.  He's going into his 5th year and has had minimal TDs after his rookie year. Only seven in three years.  He had Eli Manning throwing to him his first two years and Jones the last two.  Yes, TEs take awhile to come into their own, but Engram is entering his 5th season.  You mentioned health as part of the reason.  Ok, but that isn't something you can just ignore either.

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13 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Engram has also got 115 targets his rookie year, averages over 110 targets in full seasons (89 average for 4 total seasons). Health has been his issue, and so has an overall bad Giants team, but there's hope glimmering through. I think people are forgetting TE takes a while to learn, and Engram is entering his prime years now.

I'd much rather take a shot on Engram who has the way better profile, better size, has developed into a blocker, plays all downs, and is used by his QB a lot. 

I would agree that engram might be the better short term option. But smith is also coming into his own and has an efficient offense that will produce red zone looks. I’d probably take engram in redraft but smith in dynasty. No way do I give 1.12 for either though. I think you’re underestimating smith though. 
When it comes to “profile” I’m not sure what you’re getting at. Size? Engram is 6’3” and irv is 6’2” and both around 240 lbs, so that’s not a valid argument. Engram 4.42 vs smith 4.62 40 times, engram is a little faster, but that’s a good time for smith as well. Smith 2nd round pick; engram 1st. That’s important in a rookie year when determining play time or investment, but marginal 3-5 years in. 
I don’t think engram gets 100 targets again either. Healthy barkley, added golladay, but also added rudolph, John Ross, and devontae booker, who all could see a handful of targets. 

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2 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I would agree that engram might be the better short term option. But smith is also coming into his own and has an efficient offense that will produce red zone looks. I’d probably take engram in redraft but smith in dynasty. No way do I give 1.12 for either though. I think you’re underestimating smith though. 
When it comes to “profile” I’m not sure what you’re getting at. Size? Engram is 6’3” and irv is 6’2” and both around 240 lbs, so that’s not a valid argument. Engram 4.42 vs smith 4.62 40 times, engram is a little faster, but that’s a good time for smith as well. Smith 2nd round pick; engram 1st. That’s important in a rookie year when determining play time or investment, but marginal 3-5 years in. 
I don’t think engram gets 100 targets again either. Healthy barkley, added golladay, but also added rudolph, John Ross, and devontae booker, who all could see a handful of targets. 

Profile wise I was looking at breakout, YPC, and dominator. Engram is the far superior prospect. But they aren't prospects anymore. Engram has failed to live up to his draft slot, but he's shown glimpses of absolute dominance. Irv hasn't really had that chance yet. This is probably the last year for Engram to make a case as a top option so I understand people getting hesitant. 

The majority (or all) of you seem to viewing Engram as that last leg, while the arrow is only pointing up for Smith. I'm betting on the better player, everyone else seems to be betting on the youth and ceiling.

Random number time to explain my point: One guy has 20% of optimism, the other has 80% but that 20% of bright light coming through is based on an outstanding profile. The guy with 80% optimism is through rose colored glasses hoping and praying he becomes something, but it isn't based on profile. It's based on either opportunity and age. I don't see a good enough ceiling even if Irv Smith hits. 

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Someone help me out. Why on earth would Irv Smith be valued more than Evan Engram other than an age narrative? I'm not totally missing something here am I?

Woke up today with an Irv Smith for my Engram and 1.12 offer and even though it's TE prem, I can't imagine a scenario that would even put the 2 in the same stratosphere in terms of value. 

I’d prefer Irv to Engram at this point, but I’m not too crazy about either. Certainly not to the point where I’m throwing in a late 1st to make a deal work for either. 

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Forced to a choice, I'd take the 1.12 over both of them. Carter, Terrace or one of the Moores all have far better potential to be a star going forward than either of these guys, Engram's early flashes not withstanding. 

The surprise here is Zyphros pounding the drum for some 27 year old underperformer over youth and unknown upside.

 

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Engram has also got 115 targets his rookie year, averages over 110 targets in full seasons (89 average for 4 total seasons). Health has been his issue, and so has an overall bad Giants team, but there's hope glimmering through. I think people are forgetting TE takes a while to learn, and Engram is entering his prime years now.

I'd much rather take a shot on Engram who has the way better profile, better size, has developed into a blocker, plays all downs, and is used by his QB a lot. 

I wholeheartedly disagree with this, personally.  Engram's issue has not been health.  His issue has been that he is a lousy football player.

Engram has had near league worse efficiency his entire time in the NFL.  It's easy to blame that on the QB but he got to play with Eli and while Eli was no Brady, plenty of WRs flourished with him.

Engram's entire value has basically been volume that he lucked into via every other even minorly worthwhile receiving option on the Giants being hurt or getting shipped out during Engram's career.  He is the TE equivalent of a RB that everyone knows is garbage but gets some play in fantasy circles because his team has no other option right now, but we all know he'll be useless in a few years.  He's basically the Leonard Fournette of TE.

I don't love Irv or anything but I would take him extremely easily over Engram as a potential breakout candidate that has looked good in limited action and is now likely heading into a larger role.  That is far from any kind of guarantee but I'd rather take a chance on the guy that might be good over the guy I already know is not.

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I'm betting on the better player, everyone else seems to be betting on the youth and ceiling.

This is where I think you're out on an island from everyone else.  Why would we think Engram is the better player?  Why would we think he's better than ANYONE at this point?  Again, he may be the least efficient receiving option in the entire NFL.  He has been that bad.  He is pure volume.  Lots of targets, and has done less than nothing with them.

Engram had 109 targets this year.  Darren Waller had 117 targets in 2019.  So on roughly the same number of targets Engram put up a barely startable 63-654-1 while Waller put up top 3 TE numbers with 90-1145-5.

Yes, Daniel Jones sucked.  But Engram played with Eli (who is at least as good as Carr, and has made plenty of fantasy receiving studs) and had the same number targets and still had a lousy similar statline.

Logan Thomas had 8 fewer targets than Engram with his own set of lousy QBs and outscored Engram handily.

I just don't think he's any good.  His stats are awful, and watching him with the eye test he looks even worse.  Just my opinion but I think it's a fairly common one and the idea that he is a good player has long since passed him by.  I would imagine most Giants fans consider him more a liability than anything at this point.

ETA: Irv's startup ADP is several rounds ahead of Engram's as well.  I'm not saying add the 1.12 on top of either one, but Irv > Engram seems to be the rule, not the exception.

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What isn't to like about Irv? He isn't going to be splitting targets with Rudolph anymore. Nobody is saying he is the next Kelce or something. But his youth and upside look pretty good. Not every pick has to be a grand slam. Sometimes it is ok to hit a solo dinger or even some doubles and singles. Nobody is claiming Irv is special. 

I actually think he might be pretty good and I don't get the hate. I haven't said a word about Engram yet but I think they are pretty even. I would rather take the ascending player every time though. 

It isn't rose colored optimism. Neither is worth remotely close to 1.12 so either one of them are value plays and hopefully you've got other options. Engram is *probably* never going to hit the ceiling we would want him to but Irv might. If he doesn't so be it. Small loss.

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15 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

What isn't to like about Irv? He isn't going to be splitting targets with Rudolph anymore. Nobody is saying he is the next Kelce or something. But his youth and upside look pretty good. Not every pick has to be a grand slam. Sometimes it is ok to hit a solo dinger or even some doubles and singles. Nobody is claiming Irv is special.

 

He's the third or fourth option on a run first team.

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15 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

Where would you value Waller in terms of a rookie pick?

He’s a hard one to answer that question.  He will be 29 in September, yet he was a late bloomer who had drug issues earlier in his career and beat it.  He should have at least two or three years of elite production left.  I wouldn’t give more than the 1.10, but wouldn’t fault a contending team giving the 1.09.  Contender or not I wouldn’t give more than the 1.09, whether it’s TE premium or not.

Edited by JohnnyU
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13 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

Where would you value Waller in terms of a rookie pick?

I would want an early pick+. I don’t think many people would trade 1.01-1.04, and I would want more than 1.05 if I was trading him. You’re hoping Pitts turns into Waller, so why trade Waller for Pitts (1.05-1.08) and not get more? He’s hard to trade though imo. 

Edited by Snorkelson
Maybe I expect too much
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13 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I would want an early pick+. I don’t think many people would trade 1.01-1.04, and I would want more than 1.05 if I was trading him. You’re hoping Pitts turns into Waller, so why trade Waller for Pitts (1.05-1.08) and not get more? He’s hard to trade though imo. 

If I was a Waller owner I’d flip Waller for Pitts straight up. I know Waller has the track record of production but in this case I’d take on the risk of Pitts becoming truly elite

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2 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

If I was a Waller owner I’d flip Waller for Pitts straight up. I know Waller has the track record of production but in this case I’d take on the risk of Pitts becoming truly elite

I’m a Pitts owner in two leagues and wouldn’t entertain the thought of trading him for Waller in a dynasty league.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Just as a rule of thumb - you're not going to do better than a late first for aging vets.

So if your team is good, maybe you just keep them. If you're going to rebuild, just accept you're not going to get what you think he's worth.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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26 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Just as a rule of thumb - you're not going to do better than a late first for aging vets.

So if your team is good, maybe you just keep them. If you're going to rebuild, just accept you're not going to get what you think he's worth.

Tes are typically later bloomers that can play into their 30s. 
ETA: if you have to play a te, if you have kelce or Waller you’re scoring a bunch more at that position that simply can’t be replaced. It would be like trading kelce 2 years ago for oj Howard.

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3 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Tes are typically later bloomers that can play into their 30s. 

Regardless, I still think it would be foolish for anyone to give more than the 1.09 for Waller in a dynasty league.  I personally wouldn’t go as high as the 1.10.

Edited by JohnnyU
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Interesting discussion about this. Thanks. I have a pick that falls right in the Pitts range and am keenly interested in what it would fetch on the open market.

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22 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Regardless, I still think it would be foolish for anyone to give more than the 1.09 for Waller in a dynasty league.

What current young te would you like over Waller? Fant or Waller, hockenson or Waller, Howard njoku engram? Kittle, but he’s the 3rd guy in the “elite” te tier.  Hockenson probably makes sense but he might not reach the level Waller has the last 2 years.  Where will pitts go where he will see that kind of volume? OJ Howard was this transcendent talent at one point that went in the same area of dynasty drafts. Sure, pitts could be amazing, like if he puts up 2-3 years of top 5 production at some point you’ll probably consider him worth the pick. Waller just seems like a better bet to do that but without the upside of 5-7 years (or more) of production left. 

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1 minute ago, Snorkelson said:

What current young te would you like over Waller? Fant or Waller, hockenson or Waller, Howard njoku engram? Kittle, but he’s the 3rd guy in the “elite” te tier.  Hockenson probably makes sense but he might not reach the level Waller has the last 2 years.  Where will pitts go where he will see that kind of volume? OJ Howard was this transcendent talent at one point that went in the same area of dynasty drafts. Sure, pitts could be amazing, like if he puts up 2-3 years of top 5 production at some point you’ll probably consider him worth the pick. Waller just seems like a better bet to do that but without the upside of 5-7 years (or more) of production left. 

It's not a question of which young TE you'd rather have. It's a question of what player you'd rather have with an early first - and the answer for most people is "several".

People keep bringing up Howard but it's not the same. He wowed with his athleticism but plenty of people questioned his actual output while at Bama. Pitts has actual production to go with his skills.

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1 minute ago, Snorkelson said:

What current young te would you like over Waller? Fant or Waller, hockenson or Waller, Howard njoku engram? Kittle, but he’s the 3rd guy in the “elite” te tier.  Hockenson probably makes sense but he might not reach the level Waller has the last 2 years.  Where will pitts go where he will see that kind of volume? OJ Howard was this transcendent talent at one point that went in the same area of dynasty drafts. Sure, pitts could be amazing, like if he puts up 2-3 years of top 5 production at some point you’ll probably consider him worth the pick. Waller just seems like a better bet to do that but without the upside of 5-7 years (or more) of production left. 

If I had Waller and was rebuilding, I would be giddy if someone offered me a top 7 pick and feel warm and fuzzy if someone offered me the 1.8, and probably take a shot of Blanton’s if someone offered me the 1.09.

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I think Snorkelson makes good points. Of course I'm not as seasoned as you guys, but give me Waller over Pitts right now. I'm not saying trade the pick, but if you had me choose between Pitts and Waller the next two years (assuming two-year windows) then give me Waller. If you watch the Raiders, he is the focal point of their offense. He's TE2 right now, ahead of Kittle, believe it or not, for that reason. They line up Waller in the slot and out wide all the time. Like all the time. He's the first guy Carr looks to. He's a monster after the catch. The drawback is age and potential relapse. That's about it, and age isn't that much of a consideration given TE longevity. He probably won't slow down in the next two years.

That's my take.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

If I had Waller and was rebuilding, I would be giddy if someone offered me a top 7 pick and feel warm and fuzzy if someone offered me the 1.8, and probably take a shot of Blanton’s if someone offered me the 1.09.

Well there is a big caveat of team makeup and how someone with a top 6 pick probably doesn’t need Waller. And if I’m rebuilding and the best I can get is a late 1st I’m at least trying to get some late round throw ins because I’m rebuilding, but think he’s worth asking for a 2nd in addition. And @Andy Dufresnealso makes a good point that you don’t have to take pitts necessarily, but in looking at that area of the draft where he’s being taken I think it’s a valid comparison. 

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3 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Well there is a big caveat of team makeup and how someone with a top 6 pick probably doesn’t need Waller. And if I’m rebuilding and the best I can get is a late 1st I’m at least trying to get some late round throw ins because I’m rebuilding, but think he’s worth asking for a 2nd in addition. And @Andy Dufresnealso makes a good point that you don’t have to take pitts necessarily, but in looking at that area of the draft where he’s being taken I think it’s a valid comparison. 

If someone offered me Pitts for Waller, contending team or not, I would probably sprain my hand hitting the accept button.

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I am a big time buyer of Waller this off-season. I would easily give a late 1st for him. I play mostly ffpc (TE premium) so am trying to figure out what it would cost to buy him there. 

Someone on reddit made the case for him being dynasty TE1 and they made a pretty compelling argument. Kelce is getting old and Kittle has the body of someone even older than kelce. Waller is actually a full 3 years younger than Kelce which is surprising as most people round up on Waller's age and down on Kelce's.

 

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For what it's worth in two FFPC startups Waller went before the 3rd rookie was taken in one of them and before the 4th rookie was taken in the other one.  

He went pick 25 in one and 26 in the other.  

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31 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am a big time buyer of Waller this off-season. I would easily give a late 1st for him. I play mostly ffpc (TE premium) so am trying to figure out what it would cost to buy him there. 

Someone on reddit made the case for him being dynasty TE1 and they made a pretty compelling argument. Kelce is getting old and Kittle has the body of someone even older than kelce. Waller is actually a full 3 years younger than Kelce which is surprising as most people round up on Waller's age and down on Kelce's.

 

I sold Waller in te premium, something like (10’team)

gave Waller/1.08/2.08/Henderson/marquis brown

Got

CMC/3.01/russel gage

 

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45 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

For what it's worth in two FFPC startups Waller went before the 3rd rookie was taken in one of them and before the 4th rookie was taken in the other one.  

He went pick 25 in one and 26 in the other.  

To be fair, in a startup the rookies are being drafted without knowing their landing spots so their values are depressed a little.  To put it another way, the 1.03 pick is worth more than the 3rd rookie player selected in a startup.

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3 minutes ago, Marauder said:

To be fair, in a startup the rookies are being drafted without knowing their landing spots so their values are depressed a little.  To put it another way, the 1.03 pick is worth more than the 3rd rookie player selected in a startup.

I wish they would use draft slots rather than the actual rookies, then hold a separate rookie draft with all the other FFPC rookie drafts.  At least for the current startups going on.

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9 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I believe he's a prime I made a mistake in drafting him type of guy.

I drafted him and then traded some better TEs later thinking Engram was my guy. PFF helped convince me that he was good. I think after his 2nd year (?) they had him rated as the top TE over the second half of the season. Don't quote me on that , but that was the gist of it. I'm not sure how much credence to give their rankings anymore and Engram is a big reason why. 

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9 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Engram has also got 115 targets his rookie year, averages over 110 targets in full seasons (89 average for 4 total seasons). Health has been his issue, and so has an overall bad Giants team, but there's hope glimmering through. I think people are forgetting TE takes a while to learn, and Engram is entering his prime years now.

I'd much rather take a shot on Engram who has the way better profile, better size, has developed into a blocker, plays all downs, and is used by his QB a lot. 

His yards and results with all those targets is putrid. Much better chance that his targets go way down then he finally does something with them.

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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

He's the third or fourth option on a run first team.

I only have modest expectations that he can be in the top 12 and be a competent backup on shallow FFPC squads. That doesn't take much at the TE position. There is upside for (a little) more but nobody is risking a lot to find out. He is as good of a dart throw at a dog poo position as you can find. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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I think the discussion always is what your roster looks like and what Waller could bring.  Can Waller be worth a 1.3 to 1.9? 

Yep.  If an owner has all the pieces and needs a TE to complete what he thinks is a championship team. Rookie production at the position normally takes time. I think Pitts is a great prospect but he is still a rookie. Waller has shown his production.  It's a tough call but I could see myself taking Waller over Pitts in the right conditions.

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1 hour ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Who has more value Fitzmagic or Dalton?  I saw this argument on another site and found the question interesting.

 

Even though it might be 1 year......Fitz easily.

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Both Dalton and Fitz should be viewed through the lens of a redraft, even if you own them in dynasty. 

I don’t know any redraft ADP right now, but I would imagine Fitz is considerably higher 

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